Electricity-carbon-green syndrome three-market collaborative kinetic analysis method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses an electricity-carbon-green syndrome three-market collaborative dynamics analysis method and system, and relates to the technical field of electricity market analysis, and the method comprises the following steps: constructing a system dynamics model; calibrating and verifying the system dynamics model; simulating a linkage mechanism of an electricity market, a carbon trading market and a green electricity certificate market, and calculating key indexes based on a system dynamics model; evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of the linkage mechanism of the electricity market, the carbon trading market and the green electricity certificate market, and giving out improvement measures. According to the method, the interaction among the markets can be evaluated more accurately, improvement measures are put forward, resource allocation is optimized, and the market efficiency is improved by constructing the system dynamics model and simulating a linkage mechanism among the three; a comprehensive evaluation framework is provided, and the positive and negative influences of the cooperation mechanism of the electricity market, the carbon trading market and the green electricity certificate market in economic operation can be comprehensively evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power market analysis, and in particular to a method and system for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets. Background Art

[0002] Faced with the increasing global warming and energy shortage, China is at a critical stage of adjusting its energy structure and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To meet these challenges, the Chinese government has implemented a variety of policies and measures to promote the growth of the low-carbon energy industry, especially to promote the development of the power market, carbon trading market and green power certificate market.

[0003] As a key area of ​​energy industry transformation, the electricity market has been gradually integrating renewable energy, especially wind and solar energy. The access and use of these clean energy sources not only help reduce dependence on traditional energy sources such as coal and oil, but also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, due to the instability of wind and solar energy, their popularization in the electricity market still faces some obstacles. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention is proposed in view of the problems existing in the existing electricity-carbon-green certificate three-market synergy dynamics analysis and system.

[0005] Therefore, the problem to be solved by the present invention is that it is difficult to use renewable energy.

[0006] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets, which comprises the following steps:

[0008] Construct system dynamics models;

[0009] Calibrate and validate system dynamics models;

[0010] Simulate the linkage mechanism of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and calculate key indicators based on the system dynamics model;

[0011] Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the linkage mechanism among the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and provide improvement measures.

[0012] As a preferred solution of the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity-carbon-green certificate three markets of the present invention, when constructing the system dynamics model, the research subject and scope of the system dynamics model are first determined, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0013] Define the research subjects and scope of the system, including grid operation, market operation mechanism, carbon emission trading mechanism, carbon emission quantification, green electricity certificate market, and types of power generation technology;

[0014] Define system constraints, mainly including: system assumptions and limitations.

[0015] As a preferred solution of the method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets described in the present invention, the method for calibrating and verifying the system dynamics model includes:

[0016] Using actual observation data, the parameters of the system dynamics model are adjusted to ensure that the output of the system dynamics model is consistent with the actual situation, thereby verifying the reliability of the system dynamics model.

[0017] As a preferred solution of the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity-carbon-green certificate three markets of the present invention, when calculating the key indicators, a causal feedback loop diagram and a logical relationship diagram are drawn. The specific method includes:

[0018] Based on the research subject and scope of the system dynamics model, the constructed model is transformed into a causal analysis, a causal feedback loop diagram is drawn, and a causal logic relationship table between the research objects is sorted out;

[0019] Establishing power market stock and flow diagrams;

[0020] In the electricity market, the market price and the total amount of electricity demand present a negative feedback function. Changes in electricity prices will affect electricity demand, and the amount of electricity demand will also affect the cost of power generation. For power generation units, the capacity of new units is related to profitability and policy factors.

[0021] Establish a stock and flow diagram for the carbon trading market. Specifically, the carbon market stock and carbon emissions are closely related. The amount of carbon emissions determines the amount of carbon quotas, and carbon quotas can be sold.

[0022] Establish a stock and flow diagram of the green electricity certificate market. Specifically, green electricity certificates are associated with green power generation, and green power generation calculates the corresponding green certificate holdings through capacity conversion.

[0023] As a preferred solution of the electricity-carbon-green certificate three-market synergistic dynamics analysis method of the present invention, wherein: the electricity demand in the electricity market is composed of industrial, commercial, residential and agricultural electricity demand;

[0024] The carbon trading market stock includes carbon quotas and carbon emissions. The carbon flow is composed of carbon trading volume and carbon emissions. The carbon emissions are determined by the energy consumption coefficient and the amount of various energy sources used.

[0025] As a preferred solution of the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity-carbon-green certificate three markets described in the present invention, the linkage mechanism of the electricity market, the carbon trading market and the green electricity certificate market is specifically as follows:

[0026] In the electricity market, carbon market and green electricity certificate market, the correlation mechanism between different markets is specifically manifested as follows: the electricity market and the carbon market are negatively correlated; the carbon market and the green electricity certificate market are positively correlated.

[0027] As a preferred solution of the electricity-carbon-green certificate three-market synergy dynamics analysis method of the present invention, the improvement suggestions include:

[0028] Use simulation technology to deduce the process of increasing the penetration rate of renewable energy under the synergy of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market;

[0029] Propose relevant technical and policy recommendations;

[0030] Provide conclusions and evaluation recommendations;

[0031] The output conclusions and evaluation suggestions include:

[0032] Based on the output results and the target of renewable energy share in electricity energy consumption, propose a reform plan for power generation organizations;

[0033] Based on the output results, propose relevant industrial economic policies, including economic subsidy policies for renewable energy;

[0034] Summarize the positive and negative impacts of the synergy between the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market on economic operation;

[0035] Give the economic, social and environmental impacts of renewable energy development.

[0036] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets, which includes a construction module, an analysis module, and an output module;

[0037] The building module is used to establish a system dynamics model, and calibrate and verify the system dynamics model;

[0038] The analysis module is used to simulate the linkage mechanism of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and calculate key indicators based on the system dynamics model;

[0039] The output module is used to provide improvement measures.

[0040] In the third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: when the processor executes the computer program, it implements any step of the above-mentioned electricity-carbon-green certificate three-market synergy dynamics analysis method.

[0041] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein: when the computer program is executed by a processor, any step of the above-mentioned electricity-carbon-green certificate three-market synergy dynamics analysis method is implemented.

[0042] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: by constructing a system dynamics model and simulating the linkage mechanism among the three, the interaction between markets can be evaluated more accurately, improvement measures can be proposed, resource allocation can be optimized, and market efficiency can be improved.

[0043] It provides a comprehensive evaluation framework that can comprehensively evaluate the positive and negative impacts of the synergy mechanism of the three markets, namely the electricity market, the carbon trading market and the green electricity certificate market, on economic operations, as well as the economic, social and environmental impacts on the development of renewable energy, and provide decision-making support for achieving a multi-objective balance. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0044] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for describing the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work. Among them:

[0045] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the synergistic dynamics analysis method for the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets.

[0046] Figure 2 Diagram of the causal feedback loop of the electricity-carbon-green certificate market synergy dynamics analysis method.

[0047] Figure 3 This is the synergistic stock-flow diagram of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets, which is the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets.

[0048] Figure 4 This is the electricity price forecast chart for the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets.

[0049] Figure 5 This is the carbon price forecast chart for the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets.

[0050] Figure 6 This is the green certificate price forecast chart based on the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0051] In order to make the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings of the specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary persons in the art without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0052] In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may also be implemented in other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art may make similar generalizations without violating the connotation of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0053] Secondly, the term "one embodiment" or "embodiment" as used herein refers to a specific feature, structure, or characteristic that may be included in at least one implementation of the present invention. The term "in one embodiment" that appears in different places in this specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor does it refer to a separate or selective embodiment that is mutually exclusive with other embodiments.

[0054] The present invention is described in detail with reference to schematic diagrams. When describing the embodiments of the present invention, for the sake of convenience, the cross-sectional diagrams showing the device structure will not be partially enlarged according to the general scale, and the schematic diagrams are only examples, which should not limit the scope of protection of the present invention. In addition, in actual production, the three-dimensional dimensions of length, width and depth should be included.

[0055] At the same time, in the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the directions or positional relationships indicated by the terms "upper, lower, inner and outer" are based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, rather than indicating or implying that the device or element referred to must have a specific direction, be constructed and operated in a specific direction, and therefore cannot be understood as limiting the present invention. In addition, the terms "first, second or third" are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance.

[0056] In the present invention, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the terms "install, connect, connect" should be understood in a broad sense, for example: it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection or an integral connection; it can also be a mechanical connection, an electrical connection or a direct connection, or it can be indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, or it can be the internal communication of two components. For ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0057] Example 1

[0058] It should be noted that system dynamics is an analytical method that focuses on exploring the interactions between various elements within a system and their dynamic characteristics over time. This method reveals the system structure, behavior patterns, and performance under different external conditions by building a dynamic model.

[0059] In system dynamics, the key components are parameters, interactions, and feedback loops. Parameters represent quantifiable or observable properties or conditions within a system, such as values, properties, rates of change, etc. Interactions refer to the interdependencies between parameters in a system, which may be direct or indirect and may be linear or nonlinear. Feedback loops describe the cyclical mechanisms of the interactions between parameters in a system, including both reinforcing and balancing effects.

[0060] Reference Figure 1 to Figure 3 , which is the first embodiment of the present invention, and provides a method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets, including the following steps:

[0061] S1. Construct a system dynamics model.

[0062] When constructing the system dynamics model, the research subject and scope of the system dynamics model are first determined, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0063] Define the research subjects and scope of the system, including grid operation, market operation mechanism, carbon emission trading mechanism, carbon emission quantification, green electricity certificate market, and types of power generation technology;

[0064] Define system constraints, mainly including: system assumptions and limitations.

[0065] The significant advantage of system dynamics is that it can fully capture the comprehensiveness and time-varying nature of the system, allowing us to gain a deep insight into the system's behavior patterns and changing laws. It can show the complex interactions, time delays, and positive and negative feedback paths in the system, helping us predict potential system risks and instability.

[0066] In the energy sector, system dynamics can be used to analyze complex energy networks, power market dynamics, energy policy impacts, and sustainable energy development trends. For example, by building a system dynamics model covering the power market and green power certificate transactions, it is possible to predict how the trading price and volume of green power certificates will fluctuate under different carbon reduction targets, as well as the potential impact of these changes on the power market and the renewable energy industry.

[0067] In general, system dynamics is a powerful analytical tool that can help us understand and optimize the dynamic behavior and changing trends of complex systems. It provides a new perspective for comprehensively examining and analyzing problems, and provides a solid scientific foundation and decision-making support for policymakers and researchers.

[0068] S2. Calibrate and verify the system dynamics model.

[0069] Methods for calibrating and validating system dynamics models include:

[0070] Using actual observation data, the parameters of the system dynamics model are adjusted to ensure that the output of the system dynamics model is consistent with the actual situation, thereby verifying the reliability of the system dynamics model.

[0071] In order to ensure the integration of the application of system dynamics model in theory and practice and to ensure the logic and practicality of the model, this study puts forward the following basic assumptions in the model construction stage:

[0072] Assumption 1: The research focuses on the electricity market within China, and does not consider the international electricity market involving cross-border transactions. In the model, power generation companies are divided into thermal power generation companies that rely on coal as energy and renewable energy power generation companies that focus on green energy.

[0073] Assumption 2: In model construction, it is assumed that the electricity market, carbon emission rights market and green electricity certificate market are separate trading systems, that is, transactions between them do not affect each other.

[0074] Assumption 3: In market transactions, all participants follow rational behavior, there is no speculative trading, and the basic assumption of rational economic man is met.

[0075] Assumption 4: The construction period of new power generation facilities is set at one year in the model, that is, the time from project start to operation is one year.

[0076] Hypothesis 5: Under different carbon emission quota allocation mechanisms, there is a certain correlation between enterprises’ investment and application of carbon emission reduction technologies and their profitability, but the degree of this correlation may vary in different scenarios.

[0077] Through these assumptions, a system dynamics model is constructed that is consistent with the theoretical framework and reflects the actual market dynamics, so as to deeply analyze and predict the interaction between the electricity market, carbon emission rights market and green electricity certificate market under specific policy and market conditions and its potential impact on achieving carbon reduction targets.

[0078] S3, simulate the linkage mechanism of electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and calculate key indicators based on system dynamics model.

[0079] When calculating the key indicators, a causal feedback loop diagram and a logical relationship diagram are drawn. The specific method includes:

[0080] Based on the research subject and scope of the system dynamics model, the constructed model is transformed into a causal analysis, a causal feedback loop diagram is drawn, and a causal logic relationship table between the research objects is sorted out;

[0081] Establishing power market stock and flow diagrams;

[0082] In the electricity market, the market price and the total amount of electricity demand present a negative feedback function. Changes in electricity prices will affect electricity demand, and the amount of electricity demand will also affect the cost of power generation. For power generation units, the capacity of new units is related to profitability and policy factors.

[0083] Establish a stock and flow diagram for the carbon trading market. Specifically, the carbon market stock and carbon emissions are closely related. The amount of carbon emissions determines the amount of carbon quotas, and carbon quotas can be sold.

[0084] Establish a stock and flow diagram of the green electricity certificate market. Specifically, green electricity certificates are associated with green power generation, and green power generation calculates the corresponding green certificate holdings through capacity conversion.

[0085] The electricity demand in the electricity market is composed of industrial, commercial, residential and agricultural electricity demand;

[0086] The carbon trading market stock includes carbon quotas and carbon emissions. The carbon flow is composed of carbon trading volume and carbon emissions. The carbon emissions are determined by the energy consumption coefficient and the amount of various energy sources used.

[0087] The linkage mechanism among the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market is as follows:

[0088] In the electricity market, carbon market and green electricity certificate market, the correlation mechanism between different markets is specifically manifested as follows: the electricity market and the carbon market are negatively correlated; the carbon market and the green electricity certificate market are positively correlated.

[0089] Reference Figure 2 As shown in Figure 2, the system dynamics model of this paper considers thermal power producers and new renewable energy producers as power supply enterprises. Thermal power producers use coal as fuel to generate electricity. Thermal power producers, renewable energy producers and the power market interact with each other through behavioral decisions such as purchasing or not purchasing power marketization and market transactions between producers.

[0090] The carbon emission rights trading market, usually referred to as the carbon market, is a mechanism aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions through market-based means. In China, the establishment of the carbon market is to respond to the global climate change challenge and promote the development of a low-carbon economy. Although China's carbon market started late, it has carried out pilot work in many provinces and cities since 2013, and has gradually formed a national carbon emission rights trading system. The operation of the carbon market is based on converting carbon emissions into tradable quotas or credits, thereby incentivizing enterprises and organizations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At present, the participants in China's carbon market mainly include key emission enterprises and other enterprises with emission reduction needs. Key emission enterprises emit according to the carbon emission quotas allocated by the government. Emissions exceeding the quota need to purchase additional quotas in the market, while enterprises that successfully reduce emissions can sell the remaining quotas. The trading of carbon emission rights is carried out on a standardized, transparent and fair trading platform. The supply and demand relationship in the market affects the price and trading volume of carbon quotas. The government guides the healthy development of the market by formulating relevant policies and guiding prices.

[0091] The green power certificate trading system, commonly known as the green certificate market, is designed to incentivize and promote the growth of the renewable energy industry. In China, this market mechanism was recently introduced with the aim of promoting the use and popularization of clean energy through market means. The initial attempt of the green certificate market began in 2017, initially in Guangdong Province, and then gradually expanded to other provinces across the country. The core purpose of the market is to stimulate the production and consumption of renewable energy by converting the power generated by renewable energy into tradable green power certificates. At present, the main participants in China's green certificate market include renewable energy power generation companies and power consumption companies. After generating a certain amount of renewable energy power, power generation companies will obtain a corresponding number of green certificates, while power consumption companies are required to purchase a certain number of green certificates to meet the national requirements for the proportion of renewable energy use. The purchase and sale of green certificates is carried out entirely in the market through an open, fair and transparent trading platform. The supply and demand relationship in the market determines the price and trading volume of green certificates. At the same time, the government will also regulate the market through relevant policies and guiding prices.

[0092] In terms of economic benefits, the profitability of power generation companies depends on the difference between their revenue and costs. As revenue grows, if costs remain stable or decline, then the company's profits will increase accordingly. In order to maximize profits, companies usually adopt two strategies: one is to expand the scale of power generation facilities, increase overall power output by increasing installed capacity, and thus increase revenue; the other is to seek ways to reduce power generation costs, although at the current level of technology, the room for cost reduction may be relatively limited. .

[0093] S4. Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the linkage mechanism among the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and provide improvement measures.

[0094] Reference Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the electricity price model is mainly composed of electricity price changes, electricity demand, electricity supply, renewable energy power generation supply, thermal power supply, renewable energy installation plan, and thermal power installation plan. The carbon price model is mainly composed of carbon price changes, carbon governance costs, expected carbon quota sales, expected carbon quota purchases, and thermal power generation profit margins. The green certificate price model is mainly composed of green certificate price changes, expected green certificate purchases, and expected green certificate sales.

[0095] The improvement suggestions include:

[0096] Use simulation technology to deduce the process of increasing the penetration rate of renewable energy under the synergy of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market;

[0097] Propose relevant technical and policy recommendations;

[0098] Provide conclusions and evaluation recommendations;

[0099] The output conclusions and evaluation suggestions include:

[0100] Based on the output results and the target of renewable energy share in electricity energy consumption, propose a reform plan for power generation organizations;

[0101] Based on the output results, propose relevant industrial economic policies, including economic subsidy policies for renewable energy;

[0102] Summarize the positive and negative impacts of the synergy between the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market on economic operation;

[0103] Give the economic, social and environmental impacts of renewable energy development.

[0104] In summary, by constructing a system dynamics model and simulating the linkage mechanism among the three, we can more accurately evaluate the interactions between markets, propose improvement measures, optimize resource allocation, and improve market efficiency.

[0105] It provides a comprehensive evaluation framework that can comprehensively evaluate the positive and negative impacts of the synergy mechanism of the three markets, namely the electricity market, the carbon trading market and the green electricity certificate market, on economic operations, as well as the economic, social and environmental impacts on the development of renewable energy, and provide decision-making support for achieving a multi-objective balance.

[0106] Example 2

[0107] On the basis of the first embodiment, this embodiment further provides a system for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets, including a construction module, an analysis module, and an output module;

[0108] The building module is used to establish a system dynamics model, and calibrate and verify the system dynamics model;

[0109] The analysis module is used to simulate the linkage mechanism of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and calculate key indicators based on the system dynamics model;

[0110] The output module is used to provide improvement measures.

[0111] This embodiment also provides a computer device, which is suitable for the case of the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the three markets of electricity, carbon and green certificates, including a memory and a processor; the memory is used to store computer-executable instructions, and the processor is used to execute computer-executable instructions to implement the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the three markets of electricity, carbon and green certificates as proposed in the above embodiment.

[0112] The computer device may be a terminal, and the computer device includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, a display screen and an input device connected via a system bus. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal in a wired or wireless manner, and the wireless manner can be achieved through WIFI, an operator network, NFC (near field communication) or other technologies. The display screen of the computer device may be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer device may be a touch layer covering the display screen, or a key, trackball or touchpad provided on the housing of the computer device, or an external keyboard, touchpad or mouse, etc.

[0113] This embodiment also provides a storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, it implements the method for realizing the synergistic dynamics analysis of the three markets of electricity, carbon and green certificates as proposed in the above embodiment.

[0114] The storage medium proposed in this embodiment and the data storage method proposed in the above embodiment belong to the same inventive concept. The technical details not fully described in this embodiment can be found in the above embodiment, and this embodiment has the same beneficial effects as the above embodiment.

[0115] Example 3

[0116] On the basis of the previous two embodiments, this embodiment provides a method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets. In order to verify the beneficial effects of the present invention, scientific demonstration is carried out through economic benefit calculation and simulation experiments.

[0117] like Figure 4 As shown in the figure, it shows the changes in electricity prices, and the predicted changes in China's electricity prices from 2025 to 2035. It can be clearly seen from the figure that electricity prices experienced a period of rapid growth between 2026 and 2034, with the growth rate slowing down after 2031. This trend of change reflects the combined influence of multiple factors such as the supply and demand relationship in the electricity market, power generation costs, and policy regulation.

[0118] From 2025 to 2030, as the carbon emission market matures and policies are introduced, thermal power companies will face increased carbon emission costs, leading to higher thermal power generation costs. In response to this challenge, the power industry structure has begun to change, with the proportion of thermal power generation gradually decreasing, while the proportion of clean energy, especially green power, has steadily increased. This change is in line with the country's requirements for optimizing the energy structure and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.

[0119] At the same time, the national electricity demand has also shown a steady growth trend during this period, which is mainly driven by the continued growth of the national economy, the advancement of industrialization and urbanization, and the improvement of people's living standards. The increase in electricity demand provides a basic support for the increase in electricity prices.

[0120] After 2030, the growth trend of electricity demand slowed down, which may be related to the improvement of energy efficiency, the popularization of energy-saving measures and the application of new energy technologies. As the growth rate of electricity demand slowed down, the growth of electricity prices also showed a slow upward trend. In addition, the government's macro-control role in the electricity market cannot be ignored. Through policy guidance and the improvement of market mechanisms, electricity prices have gradually stabilized.

[0121] It is worth noting that after 2034, the growth trend of electricity prices will be flat, which may indicate a new balance between supply and demand in the electricity market and a further reduction in the cost of new energy power generation technology. With the continuous advancement of clean energy technology and the further reduction of costs, it is expected that electricity prices will gradually stabilize in a reasonable range in the future, providing a guarantee for the sustainable development of the electricity market.

[0122] like Figure 5 As shown in the figure, the carbon price changes show that in the next decade, from 2025 to 2035, the carbon price shows a clear upward trend, but after 2034, this growth trend slows down. This trend can be attributed to a variety of factors:

[0123] First, the growing global concern about climate change has prompted governments to tighten restrictions on carbon emissions. Policymakers have promoted the activity of the carbon trading market by setting stricter greenhouse gas emission standards and regulations, thereby driving a steady increase in carbon prices.

[0124] Secondly, as time goes by, the public's awareness of climate change has gradually deepened, and the market demand for low-carbon technologies and solutions has also increased. In order to meet environmental regulations and market demand, companies have to increase investment in carbon reduction technologies, which has indirectly pushed up carbon prices.

[0125] In addition, technological progress has also played a key role in the rising trend of carbon prices. With the development of technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), the cost of emission reduction has gradually decreased, making companies more willing to pay higher carbon prices to adopt these technologies.

[0126] However, by 2034, the growth trend of carbon prices begins to slow down. This may be because the market has adapted to the higher carbon price, and emission reduction technologies and measures have become relatively common and mature. In addition, the global economy may have experienced a period of adjustment, and the demand for carbon emissions may decrease due to economic slowdown or other macroeconomic factors.

[0127] At the same time, some countries and regions may have achieved carbon neutrality goals, which reduces the demand for carbon emission rights, thus affecting the further increase of carbon prices. In addition, the emergence of new emission reduction mechanisms or technologies, such as direct air capture, may provide a more economical and effective way to reduce emissions and reduce dependence on the carbon trading market.

[0128] Overall, the upward trend in carbon prices reflects the global emphasis on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the slowdown in the growth trend after 2034 may indicate that the market has reached a new equilibrium point. In the future, as global emission reduction efforts continue, carbon prices are likely to remain at a relatively stable level to continue to incentivize emission reduction actions.

[0129] Reference Figure 6As shown in the figure, the price of green power certificates is expected to grow steadily from 2025 to 2034. This trend reflects the steady increase in market demand for renewable energy and the government's continued support for green energy policies. With the advancement of green power technology and the reduction of costs, green power has gradually occupied a more important position in the market. However, by 2035, the price of green certificates may experience a short-term rapid rise, mainly due to the increase in investment and procurement of green power by the government and enterprises in order to promote emission reduction after the national carbon emissions peak. At the same time, the improvement of public environmental awareness has also increased the demand for green power. In the long run, as carbon emissions gradually decrease, the proportion of thermal power use will decrease, while the proportion of green power use will increase, which will lead to a balance between the supply and demand of green power, so that the price of green certificates will eventually stabilize.

[0130] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should all be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets, characterized by: The following steps are included: Construct system dynamics models; Calibrate and validate system dynamics models; Simulate the linkage mechanism of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and calculate key indicators based on the system dynamics model; Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the linkage mechanism among the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and provide improvement measures.

2. The method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets according to claim 1, characterized in that: When constructing the system dynamics model, the research subject and scope of the system dynamics model are first determined, which specifically includes the following steps: Define the research subjects and scope of the system, including grid operation, market operation mechanism, carbon emission trading mechanism, carbon emission quantification, green electricity certificate market, and types of power generation technology; Define system constraints, mainly including: system assumptions and limitations.

3. The method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets according to claim 2, characterized in that: Methods for calibrating and validating system dynamics models include: Using actual observation data, the parameters of the system dynamics model are adjusted to ensure that the output of the system dynamics model is consistent with the actual situation, thereby verifying the reliability of the system dynamics model.

4. The method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets according to claim 3, characterized in that: When calculating the key indicators, a causal feedback loop diagram and a logical relationship diagram are drawn. The specific method includes: Based on the research subject and scope of the system dynamics model, the constructed model is transformed into a causal analysis, a causal feedback loop diagram is drawn, and a causal logic relationship table between the research objects is sorted out; Establishing power market stock and flow diagrams; In the electricity market, the market price and the total amount of electricity demand present a negative feedback function. Changes in electricity prices will affect electricity demand, and the amount of electricity demand will also affect the cost of power generation. For power generation units, the capacity of new units is related to profitability and policy factors. Establish a stock and flow diagram for the carbon trading market. Specifically, the carbon market stock and carbon emissions are closely related. The amount of carbon emissions determines the amount of carbon quotas, and carbon quotas can be sold. Establish a stock and flow diagram of the green electricity certificate market. Specifically, green electricity certificates are associated with green power generation, and green power generation calculates the corresponding green certificate holdings through capacity conversion.

5. The method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets according to claim 4, characterized in that: The electricity demand in the electricity market is composed of industrial, commercial, residential and agricultural electricity demand; The carbon trading market stock includes carbon quotas and carbon emissions. The carbon flow is composed of carbon trading volume and carbon emissions. The carbon emissions are determined by the energy consumption coefficient and the amount of various energy sources used.

6. The method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets according to claim 5, characterized in that: The linkage mechanism among the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market is as follows: In the electricity market, carbon market and green electricity certificate market, the correlation mechanism between different markets is specifically manifested as follows: the electricity market and the carbon market are negatively correlated; the carbon market and the green electricity certificate market are positively correlated.

7. The method for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity, carbon and green certificate markets according to claim 6, characterized in that: The improvement suggestions include: Use simulation technology to deduce the process of increasing the penetration rate of renewable energy under the synergy of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market; Propose relevant technical and policy recommendations; Provide conclusions and evaluation recommendations; The output conclusions and evaluation suggestions include: Based on the output results and the target of renewable energy share in electricity energy consumption, propose a reform plan for power generation organizations; Based on the output results, propose relevant industrial economic policies, including economic subsidy policies for renewable energy; Summarize the positive and negative impacts of the synergy between the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market on economic operation; Give the economic, social and environmental impacts of renewable energy development.

8. A system for analyzing the synergistic dynamics of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets, based on the synergistic dynamics analysis method of the electricity-carbon-green certificate markets according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: Includes construction module, analysis module, and output module; The building module is used to establish a system dynamics model, and calibrate and verify the system dynamics model; The analysis module is used to simulate the linkage mechanism of the electricity market, carbon trading market and green electricity certificate market, and calculate key indicators based on the system dynamics model; The output module is used to provide improvement measures.

9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the electricity-carbon-green certificate three-market synergy dynamics analysis method described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the electricity-carbon-green certificate three-market synergy dynamics analysis method described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

Images