Method and device for voyage prediction based on ship propulsion mode

Abstract

The application discloses a voyage prediction method and device based on a ship propulsion mode, and relates to the technical field of ship navigation control. The voyage prediction method based on the ship propulsion mode comprises the following steps: calculating a real-time residual navigable distance of a ship under the ship propulsion mode; constructing a voyage prediction correction model; and correcting the real-time residual navigable distance of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain a target residual navigable distance of the ship. Through the construction of the voyage prediction correction model and the correction of the real-time residual navigable distance of the ship by the voyage prediction correction model, the quantitative evaluation of the ship voyage prediction is realized, and thus the prediction accuracy of the residual navigable distance is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of ship navigation control technology, specifically to a method and apparatus for predicting the range based on ship propulsion modes. Background Technology

[0002] The mission, as the "original purpose" of a ship, is the primary goal during its voyage. Remaining navigable range, a key factor influencing mission execution, is crucial for ensuring that crew members or the ship's mission system can effectively assess mission capabilities, rationally plan, and complete subsequent tasks. However, a quantitative evaluation system for a ship's remaining navigable range has not yet been established. Summary of the Invention

[0003] Purpose of the invention: This application provides a range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode, aiming to overcome the technical problem of lack of quantitative evaluation of the remaining navigable mileage of ships in the prior art; another purpose of this application is to provide a range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode.

[0004] Technical solution: The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode described in this application embodiment is applied to a ship control system, and the method includes:

[0005] Calculate the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel under the given propulsion mode;

[0006] Construct a range prediction correction model;

[0007] The real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel is corrected according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the vessel.

[0008] In some embodiments, calculating the real-time remaining navigable range of the vessel in the vessel propulsion mode includes:

[0009] The ship's current speed, current remaining fuel load, and real-time fuel consumption rate are obtained under the ship propulsion mode.

[0010] The real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the propulsion mode is calculated based on the ship's current speed, current remaining fuel load, and real-time fuel consumption rate in the propulsion mode.

[0011] In some embodiments, calculating the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship in the propulsion mode based on the ship's current speed, current remaining fuel load, and real-time fuel consumption rate in the propulsion mode includes:

[0012] The current remaining sailing time of the ship in the propulsion mode is calculated based on the ship's current remaining fuel load and real-time fuel consumption rate in the propulsion mode.

[0013] The real-time remaining navigable distance of the ship in the propulsion mode is calculated based on the ship's current remaining navigable time and its current speed in the propulsion mode.

[0014] In some embodiments, the ship control system includes a plurality of fuel-consuming devices;

[0015] The formula for calculating the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is as follows:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, A 实时 ρ represents the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in propulsion mode; n represents the fuel density; and n represents the number of fuel-consuming devices on the ship in propulsion mode. in A is the inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment; out This refers to the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

[0018] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of: a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model.

[0019] In some embodiments, when the range prediction correction model includes two or more of the following: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative vessel data correction model, the order in which the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel is corrected according to the range prediction correction model is as follows: the historical data correction model, the real-time environmental data correction model, and the collaborative vessel data correction model.

[0020] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the historical data correction model is:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, D 校正1 D1 represents the remaining navigable distance after correction using a historical data correction model; D2 represents the real-time remaining navigable distance. 历史 The average of historical flight distance data; ΔD 历史 α represents the error in historical voyage data; α is the historical data correction factor.

[0023] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the real-time environmental data correction model is:

[0024]

[0025] Among them, D 校正2 D1 represents the remaining navigable range after real-time environmental data correction; D2 represents the real-time remaining navigable range or the remaining range after historical data correction; β represents the environmental impact coefficient; E represents the environmental impact coefficient. 实时 For real-time environmental factors; E 基准 This serves as the baseline environmental factor.

[0026] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the collaborative ship data correction model is:

[0027]

[0028] Among them, D 校正3 D3 represents the remaining navigable distance after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model; D3 represents the remaining navigable distance in real time, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the historical data correction model, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence; γ represents the collaborative influence coefficient. The average remaining range of the cooperating vessels.

[0029] In some embodiments, the range prediction method based on ship propulsion patterns further includes:

[0030] Obtain historical total fuel consumption, total mileage, and current remaining fuel load;

[0031] The ship's average fuel consumption efficiency is obtained based on the total historical fuel consumption and total voyage distance.

[0032] The average remaining navigable range of a ship is obtained based on the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency and the current remaining fuel load.

[0033] In some embodiments, the range prediction method based on ship propulsion patterns further includes:

[0034] The average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions is calculated based on the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode.

[0035] Based on the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency under various operating conditions and the corresponding operating conditions, curves of operating conditions and average fuel consumption efficiency are constructed.

[0036] Accordingly, the range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode described in this application embodiment is applied to a ship control system, and the device includes:

[0037] The calculation module is used to calculate the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode;

[0038] The model building module is used to build range prediction correction models;

[0039] The correction module is used to correct the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel according to the voyage prediction correction model, so as to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the vessel.

[0040] Beneficial Effects: Compared with the prior art, the method and apparatus for predicting voyage based on ship propulsion mode in this application include: calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship under the ship propulsion mode; constructing a voyage prediction correction model; and correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship. By constructing a voyage prediction correction model and correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship using the voyage prediction correction model, a quantitative evaluation of ship voyage prediction is achieved, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the remaining navigable mileage. Attached Figure Description

[0041] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application, the accompanying drawings used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0042] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode provided in the embodiments of this application;

[0043] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the principle structure of a range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode provided in the embodiments of this application.

[0044] Figure label:

[0045] 101-Calculation module; 102-Model building module; 103-Correction module; 100-Distance prediction device based on ship propulsion mode. Detailed Implementation

[0046] The technical solutions of the embodiments of this application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of this application, and not all of them. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of this application without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0047] It should be understood that although the terms first, second, etc., may be used herein to describe various components, these components should not be limited by these terms. These terms are used to distinguish one component from another. Therefore, the first component discussed below may be referred to as the second component without departing from the teachings of this application. As used herein, the term "and / or" includes all combinations of any and more of the associated listed items.

[0048] Those skilled in the art will understand that the accompanying drawings are merely schematic diagrams of exemplary embodiments and may not be to scale. The modules or processes shown in the drawings are not necessarily essential for implementing this application and therefore should not be used to limit the scope of protection of this application.

[0049] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode, provided in an embodiment of this application. This method is applicable to situations where a ship's remaining navigable range in propulsion mode needs to be accurately predicted within a ship's control platform. This method can be executed by a range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode, which can be implemented in software and / or hardware and can be configured within the processor of the ship control platform. Please refer to... Figure 1 The method includes the following steps:

[0050] Step 110: Calculate the real-time remaining navigable distance of the ship in ship propulsion mode.

[0051] Among them, ship propulsion mode refers to the state of a ship moving in water. In ship propulsion mode, propulsion can be achieved by consuming fuel.

[0052] Step 120: Construct a flight range prediction correction model.

[0053] Because the real-time remaining navigable distance of a ship in propulsion mode is often not accurate due to factors such as the water environment, weather, and other ships, it is necessary to correct the real-time remaining navigable distance to improve the accuracy of remaining navigable distance prediction. Therefore, a voyage prediction correction model is constructed.

[0054] Step 130: Correct the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0055] Specifically, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated, and then corrected by the voyage prediction correction model to calculate the ship's true remaining navigable mileage (i.e., the target remaining navigable mileage). This enables a quantitative evaluation of the ship's voyage prediction, improves the accuracy of voyage prediction, and provides accurate and reliable voyage data for ship navigation.

[0056] In the technical solution of this embodiment, the working principle of the range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode is as follows: (See reference) Figure 1 First, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship under propulsion mode is calculated. Then, a range prediction and correction model is constructed. Finally, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship is corrected based on the range prediction and correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage. Therefore, by constructing a range prediction and correction model and correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage using this model, a quantitative evaluation of ship range prediction can be achieved, thereby improving the accuracy of remaining navigable mileage prediction and providing accurate and reliable range data for ship navigation.

[0057] In some embodiments, the calculation process for the real-time remaining navigable mileage of a ship in ship propulsion mode is as follows: obtaining the ship's current speed V, current remaining fuel load C, and real-time fuel consumption rate in ship propulsion mode; and calculating the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage S in ship propulsion mode based on the ship's current speed V, current remaining fuel load C, and real-time fuel consumption rate in ship propulsion mode.

[0058] The ship's current speed in propulsion mode can be obtained in real time from the ship's speed detection system or sensors. The ship's current remaining fuel load can be obtained from the ship's fuel gauges or fuel level sensors.

[0059] In some embodiments, the process of calculating the real-time remaining navigable distance S of the ship in the propulsion mode based on the ship's current speed V, current remaining fuel load C, and real-time fuel consumption rate in the propulsion mode is as follows: calculate the ship's current remaining navigable time T in the propulsion mode based on the ship's current remaining fuel load C and real-time fuel consumption rate in the propulsion mode; calculate the ship's real-time remaining navigable distance S in the propulsion mode based on the ship's current remaining navigable time T and the ship's current speed V in the propulsion mode.

[0060] The formula for calculating the current remaining sailing time T of a ship in propulsion mode is as follows:

[0061]

[0062] The formula for calculating the real-time remaining navigable distance S of a ship in propulsion mode is as follows:

[0063] S = V × T

[0064] The unit for the current remaining fuel load C is tons (t); the unit for the current remaining navigable time T is hours (h); and the unit for the ship's current speed V in ship propulsion mode is knots (kn).

[0065] In some embodiments, the ship control system includes multiple fuel-consuming devices; the formula for calculating the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in ship propulsion mode is:

[0066]

[0067] Among them, A 实时 ρ represents the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in propulsion mode; n represents the fuel density; and n represents the number of fuel-consuming devices on the ship in propulsion mode. in A is the inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment; out This refers to the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

[0068] Among them, the real-time fuel consumption rate A of each fuel-consuming device i The calculation formula is:

[0069] A i =A in -A out

[0070] Among them, A i The unit is cubic meters per hour (m3 / h); the real-time fuel consumption rate A of the ship in ship propulsion mode. 实时 The unit is tons per hour (t / h).

[0071] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of: a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model.

[0072] The voyage prediction correction model includes one or more correction models, such as at least one of historical data correction models, real-time environmental data correction models, and collaborative vessel data correction models. The specific correction models that need to be included in the voyage prediction correction model can be set according to the actual situation, and no specific limitations are made here.

[0073] In some embodiments, when the range prediction correction model includes two or more of the following: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative vessel data correction model, the order in which the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel is corrected according to the range prediction correction model is as follows: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative vessel data correction model.

[0074] When the voyage prediction correction model includes two or more of the following: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative ship data correction model, the voyage prediction correction model is a correction model based on multidimensional data.

[0075] The calibration order of the various models is as follows: historical data calibration model, real-time environmental data calibration model, and collaborative ship data calibration model. For example, when the range prediction calibration model only includes the historical data calibration model and the real-time environmental data calibration model, the process of calibrating the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage according to this range prediction calibration model is as follows: first, the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage in ship propulsion mode is input into the historical data calibration model for calibration, and then the calibration result is input into the real-time environmental data calibration model for further calibration. The calibration result is the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0076] For example, when the range prediction correction model only includes the historical data correction model and the collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the range prediction correction model is as follows: first, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is input into the historical data correction model for correction, and then the result of the correction is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for correction again. The result of the correction is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0077] For example, when the range prediction correction model only includes the real-time environmental data correction model and the collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage according to the range prediction correction model is as follows: first, the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage in the ship propulsion mode is input into the real-time environmental data correction model for correction, and then the correction result is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for further correction. The correction result is the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0078] For example, when the range prediction correction model includes a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage according to the range prediction correction model is as follows: First, the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage in the ship propulsion mode is input into the historical data correction model for correction, and the result of the correction is input into the real-time environmental data correction model for correction again. The result of the second correction is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for a third correction, and the result of the third correction is the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0079] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the historical data correction model is:

[0080]

[0081] Among them, D 校正1 D1 represents the remaining navigable distance (in nautical miles) after correction using a historical data correction model; D2 represents the real-time remaining navigable distance (in nautical miles); D3 represents the remaining navigable distance. 历史 This is the average of historical voyage data, calculated as the average of multiple historical actual voyage distances (in nautical miles); ΔD 历史 α represents the error in historical voyage data; α is the historical data correction factor.

[0082] Where D1 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage, which is the real-time remaining navigable mileage S of the ship in the ship propulsion mode calculated above.

[0083] Among them, the historical data correction coefficient α is used to balance the influence of historical data on the correction result, and its value range is [0, 1].

[0084] The error in historical flight distance data is the difference between historical predicted values ​​and historical actual flight distance values, i.e.:

[0085] ΔD 历史 =D 历史预测 -D 历史实际

[0086] Among them, D 历史预测 This represents historical forecasts, specifically the predicted flight distances under similar historical conditions. (D) 历史实际 This refers to the actual historical flight distance, i.e., the real flight distance data under similar historical conditions.

[0087] Specifically, when the correction model only includes a historical data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage to obtain the ship's target remaining navigable mileage is as follows: First, acquire historical data, i.e., collect historical voyage prediction values ​​and historical actual voyage values ​​under similar conditions. Then, calculate the error of the historical voyage data. Second, calculate the average value of the historical voyage data. Finally, input the calculated real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D1) of the ship in the ship propulsion mode into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for correction, and obtain the corrected voyage prediction value, which is the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0088] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the real-time environmental data correction model is:

[0089]

[0090] Among them, D 校正2 D1 represents the remaining navigable distance (in nautical miles) after correction using a real-time environmental data correction model; D2 represents the real-time remaining navigable distance or the remaining navigable distance (in nautical miles) after correction using a historical data correction model; β represents the environmental impact coefficient; E实时 For real-time environmental factors; E 基准 This serves as the baseline environmental factor.

[0091] The environmental impact coefficient is used to represent the degree of influence of real-time environmental factors on the correction results, and its value range is [0, 1].

[0092] Among them, the real-time environmental factor represents the overall impact of the current environment on ship navigation. Specifically, it can be obtained by comprehensively considering the following key environmental factors:

[0093] E 实时 =w1·f1(V 风 )+w2·f2(H 浪 )+w3·f3(V 流 )+w4·f4(T 气温 )+w5·f5(P 气压 )+w6·f6(S 盐度 )

[0094] Among them, V 风 Wind speed (unit: m / s); H 浪 Wave height (unit: m); V 流 T represents ocean current velocity (unit: m / s); 气温 Temperature (unit: °C); P 气压 Gas pressure (unit: hPa); S 盐度 Seawater salinity (unit: PSU).

[0095] The calculation formulas for each key environmental factor are as follows:

[0096] f1(V 风 )=1+α1·(V 风 -V 风标准 )

[0097] f2(H 浪 )=1+α2·(H 浪 -H 浪标准 ) 2

[0098] f3(V 流 )=1+α3·(V 流 -V 流标准 )

[0099] f4(T 气温 )=1+α4·(T 气温 -T 气温标准 )

[0100] f5(P 气压 )=1+α5·(P 气压 -P 气压标准)

[0101] f6(S 盐度 )=1+α6·(S 盐度 -S 盐度标准 )

[0102] The baseline environmental factor represents the degree of environmental impact under ideal conditions (usually taken as the environmental factor under conditions of good weather and calm seas). The calculation method for the baseline environmental factor is as follows:

[0103] In calculating E 基准 At that time, environmental factors affecting a ship's voyage, such as wind speed, waves, ocean currents, temperature, air pressure, and salinity, are taken into account. 基准 This reflects the impact of these environmental factors on ship navigation performance under standard conditions. A weighted average or linear combination model can be established based on the state of these parameters under standard environmental conditions to calculate E. 基准 The following is the detailed comprehensive calculation method.

[0104] First, we construct a correction factor formula under standard conditions, representing all environmental parameters through a weighted sum and linear combination method:

[0105] E 基准 =g(V 风标准 H 浪标准 V 流标准 T 气温标准 P 气压标准 S 盐度标准 )

[0106] Among them, V 风标准 Standard wind speed (unit: m / s); H 浪标准 Standard wave height (unit: m); V 流标准 Standard ocean current velocity (unit: m / s); T 气温标准 Standard temperature (unit: °C); P 气压标准 Standard atmospheric pressure (unit: hPa); S 盐度标准 Standard salinity (unit: PSU, practical salinity unit).

[0107] These standard values ​​represent environmental parameters under baseline conditions. For example, wind speed can be a common average value, and ocean current speed can be a no-current or very weak current.

[0108] Then, a linear weighted model is established to model the impact of each environmental factor under standard conditions as a weighted linear combination. Assuming that the impact of each parameter on ship performance is linear, the following formula can be used:

[0109] E 基准 =w1·f1(V 风标准)+w2·f2(H 浪标准 )+w3·f3(V 流标准 )+w4·f4(T 气温标准 )+w5·f5(P 气压标准 )+w6·f6(S 盐度标准 )

[0110] Among them, w1, w2, w3, w4, w5, and w6 are the weight coefficients of each environmental factor, representing the importance of each factor to the ship's navigation performance.

[0111] Where f1, f2, f3, f4, f5, and f6 are the influence functions of each environmental parameter, representing the way in which they affect the ship's navigation performance.

[0112] Then, standard influence models for the effect of each environmental parameter on ship performance are established. Wind speed is typically set to calm or light wind (e.g., 3-5 m / s) under standard conditions. The standard influence function for wind speed is:

[0113] f1(V 风标准 )=1+α1·(V 风标准 -0)

[0114] Here, α1 is the wind speed influence coefficient, representing the effect of wind speed on ship resistance. It is usually determined through wind tunnel tests or empirical data. Standard wind speeds are generally low, so their effect on speed and fuel consumption can be considered linear.

[0115] The standard value for wave height can be set to no waves or low waves (e.g., 0.5-1m). The wave influence function can be modeled as follows:

[0116] f2(H 浪标准 )=1+α2(H 浪标准 -0) 2

[0117] Here, α2 is the influence coefficient of wave height, which is usually determined by the interaction between waves and the ship's hull. The effect of wave height on ship navigation is nonlinear, especially under large wave conditions.

[0118] The ocean current velocity can be set to a no-current or weak-current velocity (e.g., 0 m / s) under standard conditions. Its influence function is:

[0119] f3(V 流标准 )=1+α3·(V 流标准 -0)

[0120] Here, α3 is the influence coefficient of ocean current velocity. The standard value of ocean current is usually set as no current, so it has little direct impact on ships.

[0121] The standard condition for temperature can be set to normal temperature (e.g., 20℃). Its influence function can be:

[0122] f4(T 气温标准 )=1+α4·(T 气温标准 -0)

[0123] Here, α4 is the temperature influence coefficient. Under normal temperature conditions, the impact of temperature on ship engines and navigation performance is relatively small.

[0124] The standard value for air pressure is a common average air pressure (e.g., 10¹³ hPa). Its influence function is:

[0125]

[0126] Among them, α5 is the air pressure influence coefficient, which reflects the impact of air pressure changes on air density and engine performance.

[0127] The standard salinity is typically set to the ocean average (approximately 35 PSU). The effect function of salinity can be modeled as follows:

[0128] f6(S 盐度标准 )=1+α6·(S 盐度标准 -0)

[0129] Among them, α6 is the salinity influence coefficient, which reflects the effect of salinity on the buoyancy and resistance of the ship.

[0130] Finally, by weighting and combining the standard values ​​of each environmental parameter into the influence function, we obtain the final E. 基准 .

[0131] The weights of each environmental factor, w1, w2, w3, w4, w5, and w6, can be determined using the following methods: First, empirical methods: estimating the importance of each environmental factor based on ship navigation experience. Second, historical data analysis: determining the weight of each factor's impact on voyage distance using regression or machine learning models based on extensive navigation data. Third, simulation model optimization: fine-tuning the weight coefficients by simulating the ship's voyage distance under different environmental conditions.

[0132] In summary, through weighted average or linear combination models, E 基准 The standard values ​​comprehensively consider the impact of environmental factors such as wind speed, waves, ocean currents, temperature, air pressure, and salinity on ship navigation.

[0133] Specifically, when the correction model only includes a real-time environmental data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable range to obtain the ship's target remaining navigable range is as follows: First, acquire real-time environmental data: through the ship's sensing system, acquire real-time data of the current environment, including wind speed, wave height, and ocean current speed. Then, calculate the real-time environmental factor by substituting the real-time data into the environmental factor calculation formula. Second, determine the baseline environmental factor, which is usually set as a reference value under ideal weather and sea conditions, pre-calculated and fixed. Finally, correct the real-time prediction, that is, input the calculated real-time remaining navigable range S (i.e., D2) of the ship in the ship propulsion mode into the calculation formula of the real-time environmental correction model for correction, to obtain the corrected range prediction value, which is the ship's target remaining navigable range.

[0134] Specifically, when the correction model includes a historical data correction model and a real-time environmental data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable range to obtain the target remaining navigable range is as follows: First, acquire historical data, i.e., collect historical range prediction values ​​and historical actual range values ​​under similar conditions. Then, calculate the error of the historical range data. Second, calculate the average value of the historical range data. Input the calculated real-time remaining navigable range S (i.e., D1) of the ship in propulsion mode into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for correction, to obtain the range prediction value after the first correction. Then, acquire real-time environmental data: acquire real-time data of the current environment through the ship's sensing system, including wind speed, wave height, ocean current speed, etc. Then, calculate the real-time environmental factor by substituting the real-time data into the environmental factor calculation formula to obtain the real-time environmental factor. Determine the baseline environmental factor, which is usually set as a reference value under ideal weather and sea conditions, pre-calculated and fixed. Finally, the predicted range (D2) obtained after the first correction is input into the calculation formula of the real-time environmental correction model for correction, and the corrected range prediction is obtained, which is the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

[0135] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the collaborative ship data correction model is:

[0136]

[0137] Among them, D 校正3 D3 represents the remaining navigable distance after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model (in nautical miles); D3 represents the real-time remaining navigable distance or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the historical data correction model, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence (in nautical miles); γ represents the collaborative influence coefficient. The average remaining range of the cooperating vessels.

[0138] Among them, the collaborative influence coefficient represents the degree of influence of collaborative ship data on the correction results, and its value ranges from [0, 1].

[0139] The average remaining range of the cooperating vessels is measured in nautical miles and is calculated by averaging the latest historical data of multiple cooperating vessels.

[0140] Specifically, when the correction model only includes the cooperative vessel data correction model, the process of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage is as follows: First, collect cooperative vessel data: through the vessel's cooperative communication system, obtain the latest voyage data of other vessels currently sailing on similar routes, including their predicted remaining voyages. Then, calculate the average remaining voyage of the cooperative vessels: average the collected cooperative vessel data to obtain the average remaining voyage of the cooperative vessels. Finally, input the calculated real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D3) of the vessel in the vessel propulsion mode into the calculation formula of the cooperative vessel data correction model for correction, and obtain the corrected voyage prediction value, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the vessel.

[0141] Specifically, when the correction model includes a historical data correction model and a collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage to obtain the ship's target remaining navigable mileage is as follows: First, the real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D1) of the ship in the ship propulsion mode, calculated above, is input into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for the first correction. Then, the result of the first correction is input into the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model for the second correction, resulting in the corrected range prediction value, which is the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0142] Specifically, when the correction model includes a real-time environmental data correction model and a collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage to obtain the ship's target remaining navigable mileage is as follows: First, the calculated real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D2) of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is input into the calculation formula of the real-time environmental data correction model for the first correction. Then, the result of the first correction is input into the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model for the second correction, resulting in the corrected range prediction value, which is the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0143] Specifically, when the correction model includes a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage to obtain the ship's target remaining navigable mileage is as follows: First, the calculated real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D1) of the ship in propulsion mode is input into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for the first correction. Then, the result of the first correction is input into the calculation formula of the real-time environmental data correction model for the second correction. Finally, the result of the second correction is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for the third correction, resulting in the corrected range prediction value, which is the ship's target remaining navigable mileage.

[0144] For example, suppose a ship's remaining range after correction using historical data correction models and real-time environmental data correction models is 500 nautical miles, while the average remaining range of cooperating ships is 480 nautical miles, and the cooperation impact coefficient is set to 0.1. Then, the remaining range after correction using the cooperating ship data correction model is:

[0145]

[0146] It should be noted that the above method can be used to calculate the remaining navigable mileage of a ship in propulsion mode when the ship's navigation mission is clear, thereby realizing a quantitative assessment of aerial survey prediction and improving prediction accuracy.

[0147] In some embodiments, the range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode further includes: obtaining historical total fuel consumption, total voyage distance and current remaining fuel load; obtaining the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency based on historical total fuel consumption and total voyage distance; and obtaining the ship's average remaining navigable mileage based on the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency and current remaining fuel load.

[0148] The formula for calculating the average remaining navigable distance is as follows:

[0149]

[0150] Where, ∑A 实时 The total historical fuel consumption is expressed in tons; ∑x represents the total voyage distance, expressed in nautical miles.

[0151]

[0152] Therefore, the remaining navigable distance in the average mode can be calculated using the above formula.

[0153] It should be noted that the method for predicting the average remaining navigable mileage of a ship provided in this application embodiment can be applied to predicting the remaining navigable mileage of a ship when the ship's mission is unknown.

[0154] In some embodiments, the range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode further includes: calculating the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions according to the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode; and constructing the operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curves based on the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions and the corresponding operating conditions.

[0155] This study calculates the average fuel consumption efficiency under various propulsion modes and operating conditions of a ship, based on the formula for calculating the real-time fuel consumption rate under each propulsion mode. Then, a curve relating the operating conditions to the average fuel consumption efficiency is constructed. This curve determines the economical operating curve and provides suggestions for selecting subsequent propulsion modes and operating conditions. The curves relating the operating conditions to the average fuel consumption efficiency are related to the ship's actual operating conditions and the actual values ​​of the average fuel consumption efficiency under each condition; however, no specific limitations are imposed here.

[0156] For example, taking ship X as an example, calculate the remaining navigable distance of ship X under the current propulsion mode and simulated operating parameters. Assume that the ship is powered by diesel engines and has two operating modes: operating mode 1 and operating mode 2. The ship's fuel-consuming equipment includes two diesel engines and two diesel generator sets. In the past two hours, the ship operated for one hour each under operating mode 1 and operating mode 2. The specific fuel flow rate, speed, and other parameters of each device are shown in Table 1.

[0157] First, a real-time range prediction is performed for vessel X. This real-time range prediction is based on the current operating condition (condition 2). According to the parameters in Table 1, under operating condition 2, the calculated real-time fuel consumption rate is 3 m³ / h for diesel engine #1; 3 m³ / h for diesel engine #2; 2 m³ / h for generator set #1; and 2 m³ / h for generator set #2. Therefore, the total real-time fuel consumption rate for the entire vessel is calculated to be 9 t / h, and the predicted real-time range under operating condition 2 is 120 nautical miles.

[0158] Table 1. Parameters for Ship X Operating Condition

[0159]

[0160] Then, the average voyage of vessel X was predicted. The fuel flow parameters at the inlet and outlet of each device over a period of time, measured by the fuel flow sensor, are shown in Table 1. Based on the parameters in Table 1, the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire vessel was calculated to be 0.48 t / nautical mile; the average remaining navigable mile was calculated to be 112.5 nautical miles.

[0161] Secondly, based on the parameters in Table 1, the fuel consumption rate of the entire ship under operating condition 1 is calculated to be 0.54 t / nautical mile; the fuel consumption rate of the entire ship under operating condition 2 is calculated to be 0.45 t / nautical mile. Therefore, operating condition 2 is the most economical operating condition, and it is recommended that the crew operate the ship under operating condition 2.

[0162] Therefore, we can see that, firstly, the above examples yielded both real-time and average range prediction results. The real-time range prediction result dynamically reflects the remaining navigable distance of the ship under its current operating conditions, exhibiting good time-varying characteristics and guiding the crew in their next maneuver to complete the mission. The average range prediction result, closely related to the crew's maneuvering habits, reflects the remaining navigable distance under various operating conditions, demonstrating good stability. This result better reflects the actual situation of the crew's maneuvering and is more valuable for reference.

[0163] Then, by calculating the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship under each operating condition, the most fuel-efficient economic operating condition is obtained, and the crew is advised to operate the ship under this condition to improve the ship's ability to perform its tasks.

[0164] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the principle structure of a range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode provided in an embodiment of this application. Correspondingly, this application also provides a range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode; please refer to [link / reference]. Figure 2 The device 100 includes: a calculation module 101 for calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; a model building module 102 for building a range prediction correction model; and a correction module 103 for correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the range prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0165] In this embodiment, the range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode includes: a calculation module for calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in ship propulsion mode; a model building module for building a range prediction correction model; and a correction module for correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the range prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship. Therefore, by building a range prediction correction model and correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship using the model, a quantitative evaluation of ship range prediction is achieved, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the remaining navigable mileage.

[0166] In some embodiments, the calculation module is further configured to: obtain the ship's current speed, current remaining fuel load, and real-time fuel consumption rate in ship propulsion mode; and calculate the ship's real-time remaining navigable mileage in ship propulsion mode based on the ship's current speed, current remaining fuel load, and real-time fuel consumption rate in ship propulsion mode.

[0167] In some embodiments, the calculation module is further configured to: calculate the current remaining navigable time of the ship in the ship propulsion mode based on the ship's current remaining fuel load and real-time fuel consumption rate in the ship propulsion mode; and calculate the real-time remaining navigable distance of the ship in the ship propulsion mode based on the ship's current remaining navigable time and the ship's current speed in the ship propulsion mode.

[0168] In some embodiments, the ship control system includes multiple fuel-consuming devices; the formula for calculating the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in ship propulsion mode is:

[0169]

[0170] Among them, A 实时 ρ is the real-time fuel consumption rate; n is the fuel density; n is the number of fuel-consuming devices in the ship's propulsion mode; A in A is the inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment; out This refers to the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

[0171] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of: a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model.

[0172] In some embodiments, when the range prediction correction model includes two or more of the following: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative vessel data correction model, the order in which the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel is corrected according to the range prediction correction model is as follows: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative vessel data correction model.

[0173] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the historical data correction model is:

[0174]

[0175] Among them, D 校正1 D1 represents the remaining navigable distance after correction using a historical data correction model; D2 represents the real-time remaining navigable distance. 历史 The average of historical flight distance data; ΔD 历史 α represents the error in historical voyage data; α is the historical data correction factor.

[0176] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the real-time environmental data correction model is:

[0177]

[0178] Among them, D 校正2 D1 represents the remaining navigable range after real-time environmental data correction; D2 represents the real-time remaining navigable range or the remaining range after historical data correction; β represents the environmental impact coefficient; E represents the environmental impact coefficient. 实时 For real-time environmental factors; E 基准 This serves as the baseline environmental factor.

[0179] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the collaborative ship data correction model is:

[0180]

[0181] Among them, D 校正3 D3 represents the remaining navigable distance after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model; D3 represents the remaining navigable distance in real time, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the historical data correction model, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining navigable distance after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence; γ represents the collaborative influence coefficient. The average remaining range of the cooperating vessels.

[0182] In some embodiments, the range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode further includes:

[0183] The acquisition module is used to acquire the total historical fuel consumption, total voyage distance, and current remaining fuel load; the average fuel consumption efficiency determination module is used to obtain the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency based on the total historical fuel consumption and total voyage distance; and the average remaining navigable mileage determination module is used to obtain the ship's average remaining navigable mileage based on the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency and current remaining fuel load.

[0184] In some embodiments, the range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode further includes: an average fuel consumption efficiency determination module for each operating condition, used to calculate the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under each operating condition according to the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode; and a curve establishment module, used to construct a curve of operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency based on the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under each operating condition and the corresponding operating condition.

[0185] In the above embodiments, the descriptions of each embodiment have different focuses. For parts not described in detail in a certain embodiment, please refer to the relevant descriptions in other embodiments.

[0186] The above provides a detailed description of the range prediction method and apparatus based on ship propulsion mode provided in the embodiments of this application, and uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The description of the above embodiments is only for the purpose of helping to understand the technical solutions and core ideas of this application. Those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features; and these modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of this application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the range of a ship based on its propulsion mode, characterized in that, The method is applied to a ship control system, which includes multiple fuel-consuming devices; the range prediction method includes: The ship's current speed, current remaining fuel load, and real-time fuel consumption rate are obtained under the ship propulsion mode. The ship's current remaining navigable time in the propulsion mode is calculated based on the ship's current remaining fuel load and real-time fuel consumption rate in the propulsion mode. The ship's real-time remaining navigable distance in the propulsion mode is calculated based on the ship's current remaining navigable time in the propulsion mode and the ship's current speed in the propulsion mode. Construct a range prediction correction model; The real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel is corrected according to the range prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the vessel. The formula for calculating the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is as follows: in, This represents the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in ship propulsion mode. Where n is the fuel density; n is the number of fuel-consuming devices on the ship under propulsion mode. This refers to the oil inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment. This refers to the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

2. The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode according to claim 1, characterized in that, The voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of the following: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative ship data correction model.

3. The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode according to claim 2, characterized in that, When the voyage prediction correction model includes two or more of the following: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative vessel data correction model, the order in which the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the vessel is corrected according to the voyage prediction correction model is as follows: the historical data correction model, the real-time environmental data correction model, and the collaborative vessel data correction model.

4. The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode according to claim 2, characterized in that, The calculation formula for the historical data correction model is as follows: in, The remaining range after correction using a historical data correction model; Real-time remaining navigable range; This is the average of historical flight distance data; This is due to errors in historical voyage data; This is a correction factor for historical data.

5. The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode according to claim 2, characterized in that, The calculation formula for the real-time environmental data correction model is as follows: in, The remaining range after correction by a real-time environmental data correction model; This refers to the real-time remaining navigable range or the remaining range after correction using a historical data correction model. This is the environmental impact coefficient; Real-time environmental factors; This serves as the baseline environmental factor.

6. The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode according to claim 2, characterized in that, The calculation formula for the collaborative ship data correction model is as follows: in, The remaining voyage distance after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model; The remaining navigable distance in real time, or the remaining distance after correction by the historical data correction model, or the remaining distance after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining distance after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence. The coefficient of synergistic influence; The average remaining range of the cooperating vessels.

7. The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode according to claim 1, characterized in that, Also includes: Obtain historical total fuel consumption, total mileage, and current remaining fuel load; The ship's average fuel consumption efficiency is obtained based on the total historical fuel consumption and total voyage distance. The average remaining navigable range of a ship is obtained based on the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency and the current remaining fuel load.

8. The range prediction method based on ship propulsion mode according to claim 1, characterized in that, Also includes: The average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions is calculated based on the formula for calculating the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode. The system constructs curves for operating conditions and average fuel consumption efficiency based on the ship's average fuel consumption efficiency under various operating conditions and the corresponding operating conditions.

9. A range prediction device based on ship propulsion mode, characterized in that, The device is applied to a ship control system, which includes multiple fuel-consuming devices; the range prediction device includes: The calculation module is used to calculate the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; The model building module is used to build range prediction correction models; The correction module is used to correct the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the range prediction correction model, so as to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship. The method for calculating the real-time remaining navigable range of a ship in the aforementioned propulsion mode includes: The ship's current speed, current remaining fuel load, and real-time fuel consumption rate are obtained under the ship propulsion mode. The ship's current remaining navigable time in the propulsion mode is calculated based on the ship's current remaining fuel load and real-time fuel consumption rate in the propulsion mode. The ship's real-time remaining navigable distance in the propulsion mode is calculated based on the ship's current remaining navigable time in the propulsion mode and the ship's current speed in the propulsion mode. The formula for calculating the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is as follows: in, This represents the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in ship propulsion mode. Where n is the fuel density; n is the number of fuel-consuming devices on the ship under propulsion mode. This refers to the oil inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment. This refers to the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

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