Method and system for determining main control factors of gas-oil ratio rise of gas channeling oil well

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of oil well production dynamic analysis, and particularly relates to a method and a system for determining main control factors of gas-oil ratio rising of a gas-channeling oil well. Preprocessing each index data to obtain a standardized standard data set; the interference effect between independent variables in a standard data set is eliminated by adopting a partial correlation analysis method, main control factors influencing gas channeling are screened out, and then quantile regression analysis is adopted to quantitatively determine the main control factors of gas-oil ratio rising in different stages and the influence degree and change trend of the main control factors. According to the method, the gas-oil ratio change rule of different stages can be depicted more carefully, the main control factors of different gas channeling stages and the change trend of the influence degree of the main control factors are revealed, and an effective means is provided for staged refined regulation and control.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of oil well production dynamic analysis, and particularly relates to a method and system for determining a main controlling factor of a gas-oil ratio increase in a gas channeling oil well. Background Art

[0002] Gas drive technology has developed rapidly, and breakthroughs have been made in technologies to enhance oil recovery, such as CO2 drive, hydrocarbon gas drive, and air foam drive. Compared with water drive, gas drive can quickly increase reservoir pressure and replenish energy, thereby establishing an effective displacement system. However, for highly heterogeneous reservoirs or reservoirs with gas caps, there are gas channeling phenomena such as single-layer breakthrough, plane fingering, and uneven advancement of the oil-gas interface during the gas drive process, which seriously affect the gas drive sweep effect and production stability. (Production) Gas-oil ratio is an important production indicator that characterizes the gas channeling phenomenon. When gas channeling occurs in an oil well, the gas-oil ratio will show an upward trend to varying degrees. Clarifying the main controlling factors of its changes can provide effective guidance for the treatment of gas channeling problems.

[0003] Regarding the factors affecting the increase of gas-oil ratio after gas channeling in oil wells, the current external research methods mainly focus on theoretical models, empirical formulas, numerical simulations, indoor experiments and production dynamic analysis. Among them, theoretical models are usually based on simplified assumptions, ignoring some complex real conditions, and therefore deviate from the actual situation; the scope of application of empirical formulas is limited, and it is likely not applicable to certain types of reservoirs, and lacks theoretical basis, and cannot deeply reveal the influencing mechanism of gas channeling problems; numerical simulations require a lot of computing resources and time for component models of large-scale grids; indoor experiments are limited by experimental equipment and conditions and cannot completely restore the complex situation of actual reservoirs; compared with the above methods, the currently commonly used production dynamic analysis method is based on actual production dynamic data, which can roughly reflect the influence of different factors on gas channeling, but it is difficult to quantify the influence or contribution of different factors on gas channeling, so it is difficult to determine which factors are most important for explaining gas channeling. In addition, the gas-oil ratio of oil wells will show different changing rules at different stages of gas channeling. Quantitatively studying the influence of each main controlling factor on the gas-oil ratio at different stages and its changing trend has important practical guiding significance for the targeted formulation of gas channeling control and development adjustment countermeasures. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above problems, on the one hand, the present invention proposes a method for determining the main controlling factors of the increase of the gas-oil ratio of a gas channeling oil well, the method comprising the following steps:

[0005] Obtain various index data of the entire historical stage of the injection and production well group centered on the gas channeling oil well, and obtain a standardized standard data set after preprocessing the various index data;

[0006] A partial correlation analysis method is used to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable on the first independent variable in the standard data set and screen out the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling; wherein the second independent variable is the independent variable in the standard data set other than the first independent variable;

[0007] Quantile regression analysis was used to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio at different stages and their influence degree and changing trend.

[0008] Furthermore, the preprocessing of each indicator data to obtain a standardized standard data set includes the following steps:

[0009] Taking the injection and production well group centered on the gas-broadcasting oil well as the analysis unit and determining the indicator variables, the indicator variables include dependent variables and independent variables;

[0010] Collecting historical data of various indicator variables and preliminarily processing the historical data to obtain a preliminary data set;

[0011] The preliminary data set is standardized to obtain a standardized standard data set, wherein the data in the standard data set are dimensionless index data.

[0012] Further, the dependent variable is the gas-oil ratio of the oil well;

[0013] The independent variables are selected based on dynamic analysis and data completeness, and include but are not limited to the oil production rate and bottom hole flow pressure of the oil well, and the gas injection volume and injection pressure of each gas injection well.

[0014] Furthermore, the preliminary processing includes checking whether there are abnormal values ​​and missing values ​​in the historical data and performing corresponding processing, specifically:

[0015] If there are missing values ​​in the historical data, the missing data is filled with the average value of several values ​​before and after the missing value;

[0016] If there are outliers in the historical data, the outliers are deleted, and the missing data are filled with the average value of several values ​​before and after the outliers.

[0017] Furthermore, the partial correlation analysis method is used to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable on the first independent variable in the standard data set and screen out the main controlling factors affecting the gas channeling problem, including the following steps:

[0018] Calculating the partial correlation coefficient between each variable in the standard data set and the dependent variable; the independent variables include a first independent variable and a second independent variable;

[0019] Establishing a first hypothesis test to determine whether the partial correlation coefficient is significant;

[0020] Select t statistic as the test statistic for partial correlation analysis, and determine the significance level α1 of the partial correlation coefficient;

[0021] Determine the probability p1 value of the first hypothesis test being true according to the size and distribution of the t statistic, and judge the result of the first hypothesis test according to the size relationship between the probability p1 value of the first hypothesis test being true and the significance level α1 of the partial correlation coefficient;

[0022] According to the judgment result of the first hypothesis test, the independent variables significantly correlated with the dependent variable are selected as the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling.

[0023] Furthermore, the first hypothesis test is specifically:

[0024] The null hypothesis of the test H0: the partial correlation coefficient is not significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable;

[0025] Alternative hypothesis H1: The partial correlation coefficient is significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable;

[0026] According to the relationship between the probability p1 of the first hypothesis test being true and the significance level α1, the result of the first hypothesis test is determined as follows:

[0027] If p1<α1, the null hypothesis H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted, and it is believed that the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable; at this time, if the partial correlation coefficient is a negative value, it is believed that there is a negative correlation between the independent variable and the dependent variable, and if it is a positive value, it is believed that there is a positive correlation between the independent variable and the dependent variable;

[0028] If p1>α1, the null hypothesis H0 is not rejected, and it is believed that the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable.

[0029] Furthermore, the method of quantitatively determining the main controlling factors of the increase of the gas-oil ratio at different stages and the influence degree and change trend of the main controlling factors by using quantile regression analysis includes the following steps:

[0030] Sort by gas-oil ratio values ​​and select gas-oil ratio values ​​at different quantile positions;

[0031] The minimum absolute deviation method was used to determine the regression coefficient of each variable at each quantile position and calculate the goodness of fit R 2 ;

[0032] Establish a second hypothesis test to determine whether the regression coefficient at each quantile position is significant;

[0033] Select t statistic as the test statistic for quantile regression analysis and determine the significance level α2 of the regression coefficient at the quantile position;

[0034] Determine the probability p2 value of the second hypothesis test being true according to the size and distribution of the t statistic, and judge the result of the second hypothesis test according to the size relationship between the probability p2 value of the second hypothesis test being true and the significance level α2 of the regression coefficient at the quantile position;

[0035] According to the regression coefficient at each quantile position, the result of the second hypothesis test and the goodness of fit R 2 Quantitatively analyze the changing trends of the main controlling factors and their influence degree of the increase of gas-oil ratio at different stages.

[0036] Furthermore, the second hypothesis test is specifically:

[0037] The null hypothesis of the test H0: The regression coefficient at each quantile position is not significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable;

[0038] Alternative hypothesis H1: The regression coefficient at each quantile position is significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable;

[0039] According to the relationship between the probability p2 of the establishment of the second hypothesis test and the significance level α2, the result of the second hypothesis test is judged to be:

[0040] If p2<α2, the null hypothesis H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted, which means that the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable;

[0041] If p2>α2, the null hypothesis H0 is not rejected, and it is believed that the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable.

[0042] Furthermore, the method also includes proposing corresponding control measures according to the influence degree and change trend of the main control factors.

[0043] In a second aspect, the present invention proposes a system for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in the gas-oil ratio of a gas-broadcasting oil well, the system comprising:

[0044] A preprocessing unit is used to obtain various index data of the entire historical stage of the injection and production well group centered on the gas channeling oil well, and obtain a standardized standard data set after preprocessing the various index data;

[0045] A screening unit, used to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable in the standard data set on the first independent variable by using a partial correlation analysis method and screen out the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling; wherein the second independent variable is the independent variable in the standard data set other than the first independent variable;

[0046] The determination unit is used to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the increase of the gas-oil ratio at different stages and the influence degree and change trend of the main controlling factors by using quantile regression analysis.

[0047] In a third aspect, the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the communication interface and the memory communicate with each other via the communication bus;

[0048] a memory storing a computer program;

[0049] The processor is used to implement the method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase of the gas-oil ratio of the gas channeling oil well when executing the program stored in the memory.

[0050] In a fourth aspect, the present invention proposes a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, wherein when the computer program is executed, the method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase in the gas-oil ratio of the gas-blow-through oil well is executed.

[0051] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0052] The present invention uses partial correlation analysis to eliminate the influence of other variables, truly reflects the relationship between variables, and accurately and quantitatively screens out the main controlling factors of the increase in the gas-oil ratio of gas channeling oil wells through statistical tests.

[0053] Quantile regression is used to provide a complete statistical description of the distribution of gas-oil ratio changes, which makes the characterization of the gas-oil ratio change law at different stages more detailed. The parameter estimates given at different quantile points reveal the main controlling factors at different gas crossover stages and the changing trends of their influence, providing an effective means for staged refined regulation.

[0054] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description, and partly become apparent from the description, or understood by practicing the present invention. The purpose and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained by the structures pointed out in the description, claims and drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0056] Figure 1 A flow chart showing a method for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas channeling oil well proposed by the present invention is shown;

[0057] Figure 2 A graph showing the changing trend of the influence of each main control factor on the gas-oil ratio in an embodiment of the present invention is shown;

[0058] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a system for determining a main controlling factor of an increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas-broadband oil well proposed in an embodiment of the present invention is shown;

[0059] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of an electronic device proposed in an embodiment of the present invention is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0061] The present invention proposes a method for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in the gas-oil ratio of an oil well with gas crossover, and uses partial correlation analysis and quantile regression analysis methods to analyze the main controlling factors of the increase in the gas-oil ratio, so as to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the increase in the gas-oil ratio at different stages after the gas crossover of the oil well and the changing trends of their influence degrees, thereby providing a quantitative control means for the efficient management of the gas crossover problem in stages and levels.

[0062] A method for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio in gas-channeling oil wells. The specific technical solution is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0063] S1: Obtain various indicator data of the entire historical stage of the injection and production well group centered on the gas channeling oil well, and obtain a standardized standard data set after preprocessing the various indicator data;

[0064] In step S1, preprocessing each indicator data to obtain a standardized standard data set includes the following steps:

[0065] The injection-production well group centered on the gas-channeling oil well was used as the analysis unit. The indicator variables were set according to the research objectives, among which the gas-oil ratio of the oil well was the dependent variable, and the independent variables were selected based on the dynamic analysis and data completeness, including but not limited to the oil production rate and bottom hole pressure of the oil well, the gas injection volume and injection pressure of each gas injection well;

[0066] Collect and organize the various indicator data of the entire historical stage of the selected injection and production well group and perform preprocessing, the preprocessing includes checking the missing values ​​and abnormal values ​​of the data and performing corresponding processing to form a preliminary data set, and then standardizing the preliminary data set to obtain a standard data set; the entire historical stage mentioned in this embodiment refers to all data since the injection and production;

[0067] In some exemplary embodiments of the present invention, during the preprocessing process, if there are missing values, they can be filled with the average of the two adjacent values. If there are outliers, they will be removed and filled with the same processing method as the missing values.

[0068] In some exemplary embodiments of the present invention, for a standard data set, since the preliminary data are not comparable due to different dimensions, the preliminary data set needs to be further standardized.

[0069] Data standardization mainly includes two aspects: data homogenization and dimensionless processing. The present invention mainly uses data dimensionless processing to achieve data comparability. By removing the unit restriction of the data, it is converted into a dimensionless pure value, which is convenient for indicators of different units or magnitudes to be compared and weighted. Standardization methods include minimum-maximum standardization, Z-score standardization, and standardization by decimal calibration. After the above-mentioned standardization, the preliminary data can be converted into dimensionless indicator evaluation values, that is, the evaluation values ​​of each indicator are at the same order of magnitude, and comprehensive analysis can be performed.

[0070] S2: using a partial correlation analysis method to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable in the standard data set on the first independent variable and screen out the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling; wherein the second independent variable is the independent variable in the standard data set other than the first independent variable;

[0071] In step S2, the interference effects of other variables are eliminated by partial correlation analysis method and the main controlling factors affecting the gas channeling problem are screened out; this step can truly reflect the influence of a certain variable on the gas-oil ratio, and then screen out the main controlling factors affecting the gas channeling problem;

[0072] Partial correlation analysis refers to the process of eliminating the influence of a third variable and only analyzing the correlation between the other two variables when two variables are simultaneously correlated with a third variable. The judgment indicator is the R value of the correlation coefficient.

[0073] The specific process is as follows:

[0074] ① Calculate the partial correlation coefficient between the independent variable and the dependent variable gas-oil ratio of each gas breakthrough problem;

[0075] ② Establish the first hypothesis test to determine whether the partial correlation coefficient is significant;

[0076] i. The null hypothesis of the test is H0: the partial correlation coefficient is not significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable.

[0077] ii. Alternative hypothesis H1: The partial correlation coefficient is significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable.

[0078] ③Select the test statistic. The test statistic for partial correlation analysis is the t statistic.

[0079] ④ Determine the significance level α1 of the partial correlation coefficient, that is, the probability level of rejecting the null hypothesis H0, usually α1 = 0.05 or 0.01.

[0080] ⑤ According to the size and distribution of the t statistic, determine the probability p1 value of the first hypothesis test and judge the result. If p1<α1, reject the null hypothesis H0, accept H1, and believe that the partial correlation coefficient is significantly different from zero; on the contrary, if p1>α1, the null hypothesis H0 cannot be rejected, and it is believed that the partial correlation coefficient is not significantly different from zero.

[0081] The meaning of the present invention is: if the p1 value corresponding to the partial correlation coefficient between a certain independent variable and the dependent variable gas-oil ratio is less than α1, it is considered that the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable, otherwise, it has no impact. Under the premise of having an impact, if the partial correlation coefficient is a negative value, it is considered that the two have a negative correlation, and if it is a positive value, it is considered that the two have a positive correlation.

[0082] ⑥ Based on the results of the previous step, select the independent variables that are significantly correlated with the dependent variable, which are the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling;

[0083] The screening criteria can be sorted according to the significance, and the independent variables with p1 values ​​less than 0.01 are selected as the main controlling factors affecting the gas channeling problem.

[0084] S3: Quantile regression analysis is used to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio at different stages and the influence degree and change trend of the main controlling factors.

[0085] In step S3, quantile regression analysis is used to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the gas-oil ratio increase at different stages and the changing trends of their influence, as follows:

[0086] ① Select the quantile position, that is, sort the gas-oil ratio values ​​from small to large, and select the quantile values ​​at different positions;

[0087] ② The least absolute deviation method commonly used in quantile regression is used to determine the regression coefficient of each variable at each quantile position; the least absolute deviation method is to obtain the regression coefficient by minimizing the absolute difference between the predicted value and the true value;

[0088] ③Calculate the goodness of fit R 2 , the higher the value, the better the estimation of model parameters;

[0089] ④ Establish a second hypothesis test to determine whether the quantile regression coefficient is significant. The details are the same as ② to ⑤ in step S2 and will not be repeated here.

[0090] ⑤ Based on the above regression coefficient calculation, evaluation and second hypothesis test results, quantitatively analyze the changing trends of the main controlling factors and their influence degree of the increase of gas-oil ratio in different stages.

[0091] In this step, targeted control measures can also be proposed according to the influence degree and change trend of the main controlling factors.

[0092] The above method has been successfully applied in the gas channeling control of a carbonate oil reservoir under gas injection development. The reservoir is a tectonic gas cap reservoir with strong vertical heterogeneity of the reservoir. A five-point well pattern of horizontal wells is used for hydrocarbon gas drive development. At present, there are gas channeling phenomena such as single-layer breakthrough, plane fingering, and uneven advancement of the oil-gas interface, which seriously affect the gas drive sweep effect and production stability. Taking one of the typical gas channeling well groups as an example, the well group includes 4 gas injection wells and 1 oil production well. At present, the gas-oil ratio of the gas channeling oil well is as high as about 5Mscf / stb, and it faces the risk of being shut down due to violation of reservoir management regulations.

[0093] The implementation process is described in detail below.

[0094] S1: Set indicator variables according to the research objectives, and set the gas-oil ratio of the oil well as the dependent variable. Based on the research and understanding of the gas channeling problem and the completeness of the field production data, set the oil production rate and bottom hole pressure of the oil well, and the gas injection volume and injection pressure of each gas injection well as the independent variables;

[0095] Collect and organize the data of the independent variables and dependent variables of the entire historical stage of the well group, including the daily gas-oil ratio (obtained by dividing the daily gas production by the daily oil production), daily oil production rate and daily bottom hole pressure of the oil well P1, and the daily gas injection volume and daily injection pressure of the four gas injection wells I1, I2, I3, and I4. Check the missing values ​​and outliers in the data. If there are missing values, fill them with the average of the two adjacent values. If there are outliers, remove them and fill them with the same processing method as the missing values. For the complete data set after processing, it may be incomparable due to different dimensions, so the data set is further standardized.

[0096] S2: Following the calculation and hypothesis testing process of partial correlation analysis, the statistical results are shown in Table 1. It can be seen that the partial correlation coefficients of P1 bottom hole flow pressure and oil production rate with P1 gas-oil ratio are -0.876 and -0.821, respectively, and show a significance level of 0.01 (p<0.01), that is, these two independent variables have a significant negative correlation with the dependent variable. At the same time, the partial correlation coefficients of I2 and I1 injection pressure with P1 gas-oil ratio are 0.330 and 0.284, respectively, and also show a significance level of 0.01 (p<0.01), that is, these two independent variables have a significant positive correlation with the dependent variable. It can be seen that the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling are P1 bottom hole flow pressure, P1 oil production rate, I2 injection pressure, and I1 injection pressure.

[0097] Table 1 Results of partial correlation analysis between individual variables and dependent variables

[0098]

[0099] In the table, * indicates p<0.05, and ** indicates p<0.01.

[0100] S3: In order to analyze the changing trend of the influence of various controlling factors on the gas-oil ratio at different gas channeling stages, it is preferred to select relatively precise quantile positions, that is, sort the gas-oil ratio values ​​from small to large, and select the 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% as quantiles. Then calculate the regression coefficients, statistical test probability p values, and goodness of fit R of various controlling factors at different quantile positions. 2 The statistical results are shown in Table 2 and Figure 2 shown.

[0101] Table 2 Results of regression analysis of main controlling factors and gas-oil ratio

[0102]

[0103]

[0104] In the table, * indicates p<0.05, and ** indicates p<0.01.

[0105] The results show that, in general, the bottom hole pressure of P1 has a significant negative effect on the gas-oil ratio, that is, the higher the bottom hole pressure, the greater the control effect on the gas-oil ratio; the oil production rate of P1 also has a certain negative effect on the gas-oil ratio, while the injection pressures of I1 and I2 have a significant positive effect on the gas-oil ratio, that is, the lower the injection pressure, the greater the control effect on the gas-oil ratio. From the perspective of different gas channeling stages, the influence of each main controlling factor shows different trends. Specifically, in the low gas-oil ratio stage (0-2.5Mscf / stb), the influence of I1 injection pressure gradually increases, the influence of P1 bottom hole pressure gradually decreases, and the influence of I2 injection pressure and P1 oil production rate are relatively stable. This means that since gas channeling has not occurred in the oil well at this stage, the injection pressures of I1 and I2 should not be too high, the gas injection volume should not be too high, and the bottom hole pressure of P1 should be kept at a high level to avoid oil well degassing or gas channeling and keep the gas-oil ratio at a low level. In the medium gas-oil ratio stage (2.5-3.5Mscf / stb), gas channeling occurs in oil wells, the gas-oil ratio gradually increases, the influence of I1 injection pressure gradually weakens, the influence of P1 oil production rate tends to be stable, and the influence of I2 injection pressure and P1 bottom hole pressure gradually increases. This shows that the main focus of this stage should be on regulating I2 gas injection and P1 bottom hole pressure, that is, I2 injection pressure should not be too high, its gas injection volume should be controlled, and P1 bottom hole pressure should continue to be maintained at a high level to inhibit gas channeling caused by I2 gas injection, ensure sufficient energy supply, and slow down the rate of gas-oil ratio increase. In the high gas-oil ratio stage (above 3.5Mscf / stb), gas channeling in oil wells is more serious, the influence of I1 and I2 injection pressures gradually weakens, and the influence of P1 oil production rate and bottom hole pressure gradually increases. This shows that adjusting the oil production rate and bottom hole flowing pressure is more effective in controlling the gas-oil ratio at this stage, that is, the oil production rate should be lower than before, and it can be further optimized in combination with a reasonable injection-production ratio, and the pressure maintenance level can be increased to achieve the purpose of stabilizing oil and controlling gas and ensure healthy production of oil wells.

[0106] Based on the same concept of the present invention, another exemplary embodiment of the present invention provides a system for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in the gas-oil ratio of a gas channeling oil well, such as Figure 3 As shown, including:

[0107] The preprocessing unit 301 is used to obtain various index data of the entire historical stage of the injection and production well group centered on the gas channeling oil well, and preprocess the various index data to obtain a standardized standard data set;

[0108] A screening unit 302 is used to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable in the standard data set on the first independent variable by using a partial correlation analysis method and screen out the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling; wherein the second independent variable is the independent variable in the standard data set other than the first independent variable;

[0109] The determination unit 303 is used to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the increase of the gas-oil ratio at different stages and the influence degree and change trend of the main controlling factors by using quantile regression analysis.

[0110] Based on the same inventive concept, another exemplary embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device. Figure 4 As shown, the electronic device includes at least one processor 401, at least one communication interface 402, at least one memory 403 and at least one communication bus 404; wherein the processor 401, the communication interface 402 and the memory 403 communicate with each other through the communication bus 404;

[0111] Memory 403, storing computer programs;

[0112] The processor 401 is used to implement the method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase of the gas-oil ratio of the gas channeling oil well when executing the program stored in the memory 403.

[0113] Optionally, the communication interface may be an interface of a communication module, such as an interface of a GSM module; the processor may be a processor CPU, or an application specific integrated circuit ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), or one or more integrated circuits configured to implement the embodiments of the present invention. The memory may include a high-speed RAM memory, and may also include a non-volatile memory (non-volatile memory), such as at least one disk memory. The memory stores a program, and the processor calls the program stored in the memory to execute some or all of the above method embodiments.

[0114] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which implements part or all of the above method embodiments when the computer program is executed. Optionally, the storage medium may be a non-temporary computer-readable storage medium, for example, the non-temporary computer-readable storage medium may be a ROM, a random access memory (RAM), a CD-ROM, a magnetic tape, a floppy disk, an optical data storage device, etc.

[0115] Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features therein; and these modifications or substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio in a gas channeling oil well, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: Obtain various index data of the entire historical stage of the injection and production well group centered on the gas channeling oil well, and obtain a standardized standard data set after preprocessing the various index data; A partial correlation analysis method is used to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable on the first independent variable in the standard data set and screen out the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling; wherein the second independent variable is the independent variable in the standard data set other than the first independent variable; Quantile regression analysis was used to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio at different stages and their influence degree and changing trend.

2. The method for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas-blowup oil well according to claim 1, characterized in that: The preprocessing of each indicator data to obtain a standardized standard data set comprises the following steps: Taking the injection and production well group centered on the gas-broadcasting oil well as the analysis unit and determining the indicator variables, the indicator variables include dependent variables and independent variables; Collecting historical data of various indicator variables and preliminarily processing the historical data to obtain a preliminary data set; The preliminary data set is standardized to obtain a standardized standard data set, wherein the data in the standard data set are dimensionless index data.

3. The method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas-broadcasting oil well according to claim 2, characterized in that: The dependent variable is the gas-oil ratio of the oil well; The independent variables are selected based on dynamic analysis and data completeness, and include the oil production rate and bottom hole flow pressure of the oil well, and the gas injection volume and injection pressure of each gas injection well.

4. The method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas channeling oil well according to claim 2, characterized in that: The preliminary processing includes checking whether there are abnormal values ​​and missing values ​​in the historical data and performing corresponding processing, specifically: If there are missing values ​​in the historical data, the missing data is filled with the average value of several values ​​before and after the missing value; If there are outliers in the historical data, the outliers are deleted, and the missing data are filled with the average value of several values ​​before and after the outliers.

5. The method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas channeling oil well according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The method of using the partial correlation analysis method to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable on the first independent variable in the standard data set and screen out the main controlling factors affecting the gas channeling problem includes the following steps: Calculating the partial correlation coefficient between each variable in the standard data set and the dependent variable; the independent variables include a first independent variable and a second independent variable; Establishing a first hypothesis test to determine whether the partial correlation coefficient is significant; Select t statistic as the test statistic for partial correlation analysis, and determine the significance level α1 of the partial correlation coefficient; Determine the probability p1 value of the first hypothesis test being true according to the size and distribution of the t statistic, and judge the result of the first hypothesis test according to the size relationship between the probability p1 value of the first hypothesis test being true and the significance level α1 of the partial correlation coefficient; According to the judgment result of the first hypothesis test, the independent variables significantly correlated with the dependent variable are selected as the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling.

6. The method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas-channeling oil well according to claim 5, characterized in that: The first hypothesis test is specifically: The null hypothesis of the test H0: the partial correlation coefficient is not significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable; Alternative hypothesis H1: The partial correlation coefficient is significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable; According to the relationship between the probability p1 of the first hypothesis test being true and the significance level α1, the result of the first hypothesis test is determined as follows: If p1<α1, the null hypothesis H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted, and it is believed that the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable; at this time, if the partial correlation coefficient is a negative value, it is believed that there is a negative correlation between the independent variable and the dependent variable, and if it is a positive value, it is believed that there is a positive correlation between the independent variable and the dependent variable; If p1>α1, the null hypothesis H0 is not rejected, and it is believed that the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable.

7. The method for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas channeling oil well according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The method of using quantile regression analysis to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the gas-oil ratio increase at different stages and the influence degree and change trend of the main controlling factors includes the following steps: Sort by gas-oil ratio values ​​and select gas-oil ratio values ​​at different quantile positions; The minimum absolute deviation method was used to determine the regression coefficient of each variable at each quantile position and calculate the goodness of fit R 2 ; Establish a second hypothesis test to determine whether the regression coefficient at each quantile position is significant; Select t statistic as the test statistic for quantile regression analysis and determine the significance level α2 of the regression coefficient at the quantile position; Determine the probability p2 value of the second hypothesis test being true according to the size and distribution of the t statistic, and judge the result of the second hypothesis test according to the size relationship between the probability p2 value of the second hypothesis test being true and the significance level α2 of the regression coefficient at the quantile position; According to the regression coefficient at each quantile position, the result of the second hypothesis test and the goodness of fit R 2 Quantitatively analyze the changing trends of the main controlling factors and their influence degree of the increase of gas-oil ratio at different stages.

8. The method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas channeling oil well according to claim 7, characterized in that: The second hypothesis test is specifically: The null hypothesis of the test H0: The regression coefficient at each quantile position is not significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable; Alternative hypothesis H1: The regression coefficient at each quantile position is significantly different from zero, that is, the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable; According to the relationship between the probability p2 of the establishment of the second hypothesis test and the significance level α2, the result of the second hypothesis test is judged to be: If p2<α2, the null hypothesis H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted, which means that the independent variable has an impact on the dependent variable; If p2>α2, the null hypothesis H0 is not rejected, and it is believed that the independent variable has no effect on the dependent variable.

9. The method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase in gas-oil ratio of a gas-broadcasting oil well according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method also includes proposing corresponding control measures according to the influence degree and change trend of the main control factors.

10. A system for determining the main controlling factors of the increase in gas-oil ratio in gas-blowup oil wells, characterized in that: The system comprises: A preprocessing unit is used to obtain various index data of the entire historical stage of the injection and production well group centered on the gas channeling oil well, and obtain a standardized standard data set after preprocessing the various index data; A screening unit, used to eliminate the interference effect of the second independent variable in the standard data set on the first independent variable by using a partial correlation analysis method and screen out the main controlling factors affecting gas channeling; wherein the second independent variable is the independent variable in the standard data set other than the first independent variable; The determination unit is used to quantitatively determine the main controlling factors of the increase of the gas-oil ratio at different stages and the influence degree and change trend of the main controlling factors by using quantile regression analysis.

11. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the communication interface and the memory communicate with each other via the communication bus; a memory storing a computer program; The processor is used to implement the method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase of the gas-oil ratio of the gas-channeling oil well according to any one of claims 1 to 9 when executing the program stored in the memory.

12. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed, the method for determining the main controlling factor of the increase of the gas-oil ratio of the gas-broadband oil well according to any one of claims 1 to 9 is executed.

Images