The invention relates to the technical field of power
system operation and control, and particularly discloses a time-sharing electric quantity prediction method based on a logarithmic load density
growth curve, which comprises the following steps of: firstly, performing causal detection and dynamic time-
delay optimization on historical load and multivariate
external data through convergence cross mapping and
mutual information technologies, and constructing a causal time-
delay feature set; and the problems of multi-element
coupling and time-
delay effect quantization are solved. Secondly, fitting a load trend by using time-frequency
decomposition in cooperation with a segmented logistic model, extracting dynamic parameters representing a growth rate and a saturation capacity, and endowing the model with a sensing ability for a load evolution stage; then, causal features, growth parameters and load components are deeply fused through cross-domain modulation and a gating mechanism, the
nonlinear modulation effect of an external environment on a load mode is explicitly modeled, and finally, a probability interval is generated in combination with
quantile regression and residual error correction. According to the scheme, accurate and probabilistic prediction of the time-sharing electric quantity in a complex scene is realized, and the scientificity of an agent
electricity purchase decision is improved.