Method and system for evaluating safety risk state of oil and gas storage tank

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides an oil and gas storage tank safety risk state evaluation method and system, and belongs to the technical field of hazardous chemical substance safety. The method comprises the following steps: collecting state parameters of a to-be-evaluated oil and gas storage tank in real time, and classifying the state parameters to obtain a plurality of evaluation data sets; based on each evaluation data set, calculating a risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank; constructing a dynamic risk control matrix of the oil and gas storage tank based on the risk value of each risk direction; and performing real-time risk rating on the oil and gas storage tank based on the dynamic risk control matrix, and pushing a real-time risk rating result to a monitoring end. According to the scheme, the problem that dynamic risk state analysis is difficult to realize in an existing oil and gas storage tank risk assessment scheme is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of hazardous chemicals safety, and in particular to a method for evaluating the safety risk status of an oil and gas storage tank and a system for evaluating the safety risk status of an oil and gas storage tank. Background Art

[0002] Oil and gas storage tanks are important production equipment in the petrochemical industry and an important link connecting upstream and downstream industries. However, since the media stored in oil and gas storage tanks are generally flammable, explosive, toxic and harmful, and the storage capacity is mostly above 1,000 cubic meters, once a storage medium leak occurs, it is very easy to cause a fire and explosion accident with greater consequences. Therefore, the production process safety and inherent safety level of oil and gas storage tanks are important measures to prevent safety accidents and reduce the impact of accidents. The national standard "Petroleum Depot Design Code" (GB 50074-2014) has divided oil depots into special, first, second, third, fourth, and fifth levels based on the design capacity of oil depot tanks, and divided oil depots into three major categories of A, B, and C and six subcategories according to the fire hazard, which has initially realized the hierarchical and classified management of oil and gas storage tanks, but the classification method is usually based on expert experience to set the classification threshold, which lacks scientificity; at the same time, it does not consider the actual safety production situation of oil and gas storage tanks, making it difficult to achieve dynamic safety production risk status analysis.

[0003] In view of the problem that the existing oil and gas storage tank risk assessment scheme is difficult to achieve dynamic risk status analysis, it is necessary to create a new oil and gas storage tank safety risk status assessment scheme. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide a method and system for evaluating the safety risk status of oil and gas storage tanks, so as to at least solve the problem that it is difficult to implement dynamic risk status analysis in existing oil and gas storage tank risk assessment schemes.

[0005] In order to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the first aspect of the present invention provides a method for evaluating the safety risk status of oil and gas storage tanks, the method comprising: real-time collection of status parameters of the oil and gas storage tanks to be evaluated, and classification processing of the status parameters to obtain multiple evaluation data sets; based on each evaluation data set, respectively calculating the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank; constructing a dynamic risk control matrix of the oil and gas storage tank based on the risk value of each risk direction; based on the dynamic risk control matrix, real-time risk rating of the oil and gas storage tanks, and pushing the real-time risk rating results to the monitoring end.

[0006] Optionally, the status parameters of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated include: basic risk information and dynamic risk information; the basic risk information is the design information of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated, and the danger information of the current stored objects; the dynamic risk information is the storage status information of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated, and the historical hazard information.

[0007] Optionally, the design information includes: one or more of storage capacity, design pressure, and R value of major hazardous sources; the hazard information of the current stored items includes: one or more of the lightning temperature, auto-ignition temperature, upper explosion limit, and lower explosion limit of the current stored items.

[0008] Optionally, the storage status information includes: one or more of the temperature, pressure, liquid level and combustible gas information in the oil and gas storage tank; the historical hazard information includes: one or more of the number of historical accidents, the level of historical accidents and the number of casualties caused by historical accidents.

[0009] Optionally, the classifying and processing the state parameters to obtain multiple evaluation data sets includes: classifying and processing the state parameters based on basic risk information and dynamic risk information to obtain a basic risk evaluation data set and a dynamic risk evaluation data set, respectively.

[0010] Optionally, the risk direction of the oil and gas storage tanks includes inherent safety risks; the risk values ​​of the corresponding risk directions of the oil and gas storage tanks are calculated based on each evaluation data set, including: calculating the inherent safety risk value of the oil and gas storage tank based on the basic risk assessment data set, including: dimensionalizing each data in the basic risk assessment data set to obtain a first intermediate basic risk assessment data set; forward processing each data in the first intermediate basic risk assessment data set to obtain a second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; dividing a plurality of data clusters based on a pre-constructed inherent safety risk level, each inherent risk level corresponds to a data cluster; based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided plurality of data clusters, performing Euclidean distance iteration between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster until the Euclidean distance is less than a preset Euclidean distance preset value, outputting the corresponding result data cluster, and taking the inherent safety risk level corresponding to the result data cluster as the inherent safety risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

[0011] Optionally, the Euclidean distance between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster is iterated based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided multiple data clusters until the Euclidean distance is less than a preset Euclidean distance preset value, and the corresponding result data cluster is output, including: respectively calculating the Euclidean distance between all data in the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and each data cluster, and the calculation formula is:

[0012]

[0013] Among them, d(x,α i ) is the Euclidean distance between all data and the i-th data cluster; x is the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; x j is the jth data; αij is the mean vector between the j-th data and the i-th data cluster; is the mean vector of the ith data cluster; C i For the ith data cluster; update the mean vector of the ith data cluster, and repeatedly calculate the Euclidean distance between all data and each data cluster based on the updated mean vector of the ith data cluster, until the latest Euclidean distance calculation result is less than the preset Euclidean distance preset value, stop iteration, and output the corresponding result data cluster.

[0014] Optionally, the risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank includes dynamic safety risk; the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated based on each evaluation data set, including: calculating the dynamic safety risk value of the oil and gas storage tank based on the dynamic risk evaluation data set, including: dividing a variety of safety events, and calculating the occurrence probability of various safety events based on the dynamic risk evaluation data set; coupling the comprehensive occurrence probability based on the occurrence probability of various safety events; calculating the accident probability of the oil and gas storage tank based on the personnel configuration information of the area where the oil and gas storage tank is located and the comprehensive occurrence probability, and determining the dynamic risk level of the current oil and gas storage tank based on the accident occurrence probability and a preset dynamic risk grading table as the dynamic risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

[0015] Optionally, the safety events include: failure of a process protection layer, failure of an equipment status protection layer, and failure of a leakage monitoring protection layer.

[0016] Optionally, the multiple security events are divided, and the occurrence probability of various security events is calculated based on the dynamic risk assessment data set, and the calculation formula is:

[0017]

[0018] in, is the probability of the occurrence of the ith security event; T i F is the number of successful protection layer triggering of the i-th security event within the preset historical period; i It is the number of protection layer trigger failures for the i-th security event within the preset historical period.

[0019] Optionally, the dynamic risk control matrix of the oil and gas storage tanks is constructed based on the risk value of each risk direction, including: determining the probability of risk occurrence and the expected consequences after the risk occurs corresponding to each risk direction based on the risk value of each risk direction; taking the probability of risk occurrence and the expected consequences after the risk occurs as two dimensions of the dynamic risk control matrix, and constructing the matrix based on the determined two dimensions to obtain the dynamic risk control matrix.

[0020] The second aspect of the present invention provides an oil and gas storage tank safety risk status evaluation system, the system comprising: a collection unit, used to collect state parameters of the oil and gas storage tanks to be evaluated in real time, and classify and process the state parameters to obtain multiple evaluation data sets; a processing unit, used to calculate the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank based on each evaluation data set; a matrix construction unit, used to construct a dynamic risk control matrix of the oil and gas storage tank based on the risk value of each risk direction; a rating unit, used to perform real-time risk rating of the oil and gas storage tank based on the dynamic risk control matrix, and push the real-time risk rating results to the monitoring end.

[0021] Optionally, the system includes: a display unit, configured at the monitoring end, for displaying the risk rating result; the display unit is configured with a Grafana tool for performing data visualization display.

[0022] On the other hand, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having instructions stored thereon, which, when executed on a computer, enables the computer to execute the above-mentioned oil and gas storage tank safety risk status assessment method.

[0023] Through the above technical scheme, the scheme of the present invention classifies the collected state parameters, evaluates the safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks from multiple risk perspectives, and subsequently integrates the evaluation results of multiple risk perspectives to conduct a comprehensive risk evaluation of oil and gas storage tanks. The scheme of the present invention can quantitatively analyze from the aspects of inherent danger of storage media, storage capacity of storage tanks, process safety status, etc., formulate a risk matrix to achieve dynamic division of safety production risk levels of oil and gas storage tanks, thereby helping enterprise managers to effectively grasp the comprehensive safety risk situation of storage tanks and effectively prevent and resolve major safety risks.

[0024] Other features and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail in the following detailed description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] The accompanying drawings are used to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the present invention and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the following specific embodiments, they are used to explain the embodiments of the present invention, but do not constitute a limitation on the embodiments of the present invention. In the accompanying drawings:

[0026] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the steps of a method for evaluating the safety risk status of an oil and gas storage tank provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0027] Figure 2 A flowchart of calculating the risk value of each risk direction provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0028] Figure 3 It is a system structure diagram of an oil and gas storage tank safety risk status assessment system provided by one embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The specific implementation of the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the specific implementation described here is only used to illustrate and explain the present invention, and is not used to limit the present invention.

[0030] Oil and gas storage tanks are important production equipment in the petrochemical industry and an important link connecting upstream and downstream industries. However, since the media stored in oil and gas storage tanks are generally flammable, explosive, toxic and harmful, and the storage capacity is mostly above 1,000 cubic meters, once a storage medium leak occurs, it is very easy to cause a fire and explosion accident with greater consequences. Therefore, the production process safety and inherent safety level of oil and gas storage tanks are important measures to prevent safety accidents and reduce the impact of accidents. The national standard "Petroleum Depot Design Code" (GB 50074-2014) has divided oil depots into special, first, second, third, fourth, and fifth levels based on the design capacity of oil depot tanks, and divided oil depots into three major categories of A, B, and C and six subcategories according to the fire hazard, which has initially realized the hierarchical and classified management of oil and gas storage tanks, but the classification method is usually based on expert experience to set the classification threshold, which lacks scientificity; at the same time, it does not consider the actual safety production situation of oil and gas storage tanks, making it difficult to achieve dynamic safety production risk status analysis.

[0031] In view of the problem that it is difficult to realize dynamic risk status analysis in the existing risk assessment schemes for oil and gas storage tanks, the scheme of the present invention proposes a method for evaluating the safety risk status of oil and gas storage tanks. The scheme of the present invention classifies the collected status parameters, evaluates the safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks from multiple risk perspectives, and subsequently integrates the evaluation results of multiple risk perspectives to conduct a comprehensive risk evaluation of oil and gas storage tanks. The scheme of the present invention can quantitatively analyze from the aspects of inherent danger of storage media, storage capacity of storage tanks, process safety status, etc., formulate a risk matrix to realize the dynamic division of safety production risk levels of oil and gas storage tanks, thereby helping enterprise managers to effectively grasp the comprehensive safety risk situation of storage tanks and effectively prevent and resolve major safety risks.

[0032] Figure 1 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the safety risk status of oil and gas storage tanks provided by one embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating the safety risk status of an oil and gas storage tank, the method comprising:

[0033] Step S10: collecting state parameters of the oil and gas storage tanks to be evaluated in real time, and classifying and processing the state parameters to obtain multiple evaluation data sets.

[0034] Specifically, the overall strategy of the solution of the present invention is:

[0035] 1) Build basic databases such as medium characteristics, storage capacity, accident cases, and dynamic databases such as temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas monitoring.

[0036] 2) Quantify and classify the inherent safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks based on basic data such as medium characteristics, storage capacity, and accident cases.

[0037] 3) Combine dynamic data such as temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas monitoring to quantify and classify the dynamic safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks.

[0038] 4) Construct a risk control matrix to realize dynamic classification of oil and gas storage tank safety risks.

[0039] Based on this, the status parameters of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated include: basic risk information and dynamic risk information; the basic risk information is the design information of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated, and the danger information of the current storage objects; the dynamic risk information is the storage status information of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated, and the historical hazard information.

[0040] Furthermore, the design information includes: one or more of storage capacity, design pressure, and R value of major hazard sources; the hazard information of the current storage includes: one or more of the lightning temperature, auto-ignition temperature, upper explosion limit, and lower explosion limit of the current storage. The storage status information includes: one or more of the temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas information in the oil and gas storage tank; the historical hazard information includes: one or more of the number of historical accidents, the level of historical accidents, and the number of casualties caused by historical accidents.

[0041] If the scheme of the present invention wants to realize risk assessment based on different risk orientations, it is necessary to classify the collected data to improve the orderliness of the data and ensure the efficiency of subsequent risk assessment. For different risk orientations, corresponding evaluation data sets are generated. Among them, the flash point temperature is the lowest temperature at which a chemical can flash when it encounters a fire source under specified test conditions; the auto-ignition temperature is the lowest temperature at which a chemical can ignite when heated in a combustion-supporting gas without an external fire source; the upper explosion limit is the highest concentration at which a mixture of a chemical and air can explode when it encounters a fire source; the lower explosion limit is the lowest concentration at which a mixture of a chemical and air can explode when it encounters a fire source. Information such as the flash point temperature, auto-ignition temperature, upper explosion limit, and lower explosion limit of chemicals is obtained by querying the SDS data of chemicals. Information such as storage capacity, design pressure, and R value of major hazardous sources is obtained by querying the relevant content in the design scheme of oil and gas storage tanks. Information such as the number, level, and number of casualties of similar medium storage tanks at home and abroad is obtained by statistically analyzing the relevant content in the safety production accident analysis report within a preset time (for example, in the past 10 years) at home and abroad.

[0042] Furthermore, combined with the risk influencing factors in the safe production process of oil and gas storage tanks, the tank temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas monitoring data are selected as the dynamic data information of safe production of tanks, which is obtained by collecting relevant point data in the industrial control system.

[0043] Preferably, the classifying and processing the state parameters to obtain a plurality of evaluation data sets includes: classifying and processing the state parameters based on basic risk information and dynamic risk information to obtain a basic risk evaluation data set and a dynamic risk evaluation data set, respectively.

[0044] Step S20: Based on each evaluation data set, the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated respectively.

[0045] Specifically, as mentioned above, the risk of oil and gas storage tanks includes inherent safety risk and dynamic safety risk, so the risk value of each risk needs to be calculated separately, including:

[0046] Step S201: Calculate the inherent safety risk value of the oil and gas storage tank based on the basic risk assessment data set.

[0047] Specifically, each data in the basic risk assessment data set is dimensionally processed to obtain a first intermediate basic risk assessment data set; each data in the first intermediate basic risk assessment data set is forward processed to obtain a second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; a plurality of data clusters are divided based on a pre-constructed inherent safety risk level, and each inherent risk level corresponds to a data cluster; based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided multiple data clusters, the Euclidean distance between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster is iterated until the Euclidean distance is less than a preset Euclidean distance preset value, and the corresponding result data cluster is output, and the inherent safety risk level corresponding to the result data cluster is used as the inherent safety risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

[0048] Further, based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided multiple data clusters, the Euclidean distance between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster is iterated until the Euclidean distance is less than the preset Euclidean distance preset value, and the corresponding result data cluster is output, including: respectively calculating the Euclidean distance between all data in the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and each data cluster, and the calculation formula is:

[0049]

[0050] Among them, d(x,α i ) is the Euclidean distance between all data and the i-th data cluster; x is the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; x j is the jth data; α ijis the mean vector between the j-th data and the i-th data cluster; is the mean vector of the i-th data cluster; C i For the ith data cluster; update the mean vector of the ith data cluster, and repeatedly calculate the Euclidean distance between all data and each data cluster based on the updated mean vector of the ith data cluster, until the latest Euclidean distance calculation result is less than the preset Euclidean distance preset value, stop iteration, and output the corresponding result data cluster.

[0051] Embodiment 1:

[0052] Using basic data such as flash point temperature, auto-ignition temperature, storage capacity, number of accidents, etc., cluster analysis is performed according to similar features in various types of information to quantify the inherent safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks.

[0053] 1) Let x1, x2, …, x n is the sample space of n oil and gas storage tanks, u i1 ,u i2 ,…,u im is the m basic information of the i-th oil and gas storage tank, where x i =[u i1 ,u i2 ,…,u im ].

[0054] 2) Data is dimensionless, so that all basic information data are distributed in the interval [0,1]:

[0055]

[0056] Among them, u′ ij is the jth basic information u of the i-th oil and gas storage tank ij The dimensionless index value is and σ j is the mean and standard deviation of the jth basic information.

[0057] 3) Data forward processing, so that all basic information u′ ij The higher the value, the greater the risk:

[0058] u″ ij =|max{u′ 1j ,u′ 2j ,…,u′ nj}-u′ ij |

[0059] Where: u″ ij Basic information ij The index value after positive processing.

[0060] 4) Divide the data clusters into four categories: major risk, relatively large risk, general risk, and low risk, i.e., C = {C1, C2, C3, C4}, and calculate the number of all oil and gas storage tank samples x in the data set. i Euclidean distance from the centers of the four data clusters:

[0061]

[0062] Where: It is the data cluster C i The mean vector of .

[0063] 5) Calculate the minimum square error of the entire data set:

[0064]

[0065] Where: It is the data cluster C i The mean vector of .

[0066] 6) Repeat the iterative calculation steps 4) and 5) and update the data cluster C i The mean vector of

[0067]

[0068] 7) Obtain data cluster C = {C1, C2, C3, C4}, and use the basic information data of oil and gas storage tanks to divide the basic safety risks of storage tanks into four levels: Class A risk, Class B risk, Class C risk, and Class D risk.

[0069] Step S202: Calculate the dynamic safety risk value of the oil and gas storage tank based on the dynamic risk assessment data set.

[0070] Specifically, multiple safety events are divided, and the occurrence probability of each safety event is calculated based on the dynamic risk assessment data set; the occurrence probability of each safety event is coupled with the comprehensive occurrence probability; based on the personnel configuration information of the area where the oil and gas storage tank is located and the comprehensive occurrence probability, the accident probability of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated, and based on the accident probability and a preset dynamic risk grading table, the dynamic risk level of the current oil and gas storage tank is determined as the dynamic risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

[0071] Preferably, the safety events include: failure of a process protection layer, failure of an equipment status protection layer, and failure of a leakage monitoring protection layer.

[0072] Furthermore, the multiple security events are divided, and the occurrence probability of each security event is calculated based on the dynamic risk assessment data set, and the calculation formula is:

[0073]

[0074] in, is the probability of the occurrence of the ith security event; T i F is the number of successful protection layer triggering of the i-th security event within the preset historical period; i It is the number of protection layer trigger failures for the i-th security event within the preset historical period.

[0075] Embodiment 2:

[0076] Risk usually refers to the possibility of loss, and can also be expressed as a combination of the severity of accident consequences and the probability of accident occurrence. Since the safety production risk of oil and gas storage tanks is also affected by the coupling between factors such as process, equipment status, leakage events and environment, multiple factors such as the inherent danger of oil and gas storage tanks and the real-time alarm status of key parameters are comprehensively considered. Using real-time production data such as temperature, pressure, liquid level and combustible gas monitoring of oil and gas storage tanks, the possibility and probability of safety production risk coupled with multiple factors such as process, equipment safety, leakage monitoring, etc. are calculated to quantify the dynamic safety risk of oil and gas storage tanks.

[0077] Preferably, the safety events include: failure of a process protection layer, failure of an equipment status protection layer, and failure of a leakage monitoring protection layer.

[0078] 1) Dynamic security risk calculation:

[0079]

[0080] Where P i is the frequency of event i; D i is the loss caused by event i; t is the time when event i occurs.

[0081] 2) Use the likelihood function to calculate the failure probability of risk events, and calculate the failure probability of the process, equipment status, leakage monitoring and other protection layers respectively:

[0082]

[0083] Where, T i is the number of successful abnormal events in the monthly i-th protection layer, F i is the number of abnormal event failures of the i-th protection layer in a month, C k is the number of abnormal events in the kth protection layer per month.

[0084]

[0085] 3) Real-time correction of the failure probability of the protective layer such as process, equipment status, leakage monitoring, etc.:

[0086]

[0087] 4) Accident losses are quantified based on the acceptable social risk assessment criteria:

[0088]

[0089] 5) The production safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks are divided into four levels of hierarchical control, namely level 1 risk, level 2 risk, level 3 risk and level 4 risk. Among them, R(t)>1 is level 1 risk, R(t)∈[0.1,1) is level 2 risk, R(t)∈[0.01,0.1) is level 3 risk, and R(t)<0.01 is level 4 risk.

[0090] Step S30: constructing a dynamic risk control matrix for the oil and gas storage tank based on the risk values ​​of each risk direction.

[0091] Specifically, the probability of risk occurrence and the expected consequences after the risk occurs are determined based on the risk value of each risk direction; the probability of risk occurrence and the expected consequences after the risk occurs are used as the two dimensions of the dynamic risk control matrix, and the matrix is ​​constructed based on the determined two dimensions to obtain the dynamic risk control matrix.

[0092] Step S40: Performing real-time risk rating on the oil and gas storage tank based on the dynamic risk control matrix, and pushing the real-time risk rating result to the monitoring terminal.

[0093] Embodiment 3: Based on the inherent safety risk and dynamic safety risk of oil and gas storage tanks obtained by the above quantitative calculation, a safety risk matrix diagram of oil and gas storage tanks is drawn from two dimensions: the consequences of risks and the possibility of risks. The risk matrix diagram is a 4*4 matrix. The dynamic safety risk status of oil and gas storage tanks is obtained by consulting the risk matrix diagram. Among them, the level 1 risk indicates that the safety production risk of oil and gas storage tanks is high, and safety production accidents are very likely to occur; the level 2 risk indicates that the safety production risk of oil and gas storage tanks is relatively high, and safety production accidents are very likely to occur; the level 3 risk indicates that the safety production risk of oil and gas storage tanks is relatively low, and safety production accidents are likely to occur; the level 4 risk indicates that the safety production risk of oil and gas storage tanks is low, and the possibility of safety production accidents is extremely low. Class A risk means that there will be large-scale casualties and serious health damage, catastrophic environmental damage, and property losses exceeding 100 million yuan; Class B risk means that there will be serious casualties and moderate health damage, serious environmental damage, and property losses between 10 million yuan and 100 million yuan; Class C risk means that there will be minor casualties and health impacts, minor and short-term environmental damage, and property losses between 100,000 yuan and 10 million yuan; Class D risk means that there will be no casualties and health impacts, minor environmental impacts, and property losses of less than 100,000 yuan. Table 1 shows a risk matrix diagram provided in an implementation manner.

[0094] Possibility / accident loss Level 1 risk Level 2 Risk Level 3 risk Level 4 risk Grade A risk Ⅰ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅱ Level B risk Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ Risk Level C Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ Ⅳ Level D risk Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅳ

[0095] Table 1 Risk Matrix

[0096] Correspondingly, the risk level description is shown in Table 2:

[0097] Risk Level Risk Description type Level I Significant risks Unacceptable risk Level II Greater risk Unexpected risks Grade III General Risks Risks Accepted Reluctantly Level IV Low risk Acceptable risk

[0098] Table 2 Risk level description

[0099] Preferably, in order to meet the needs of displaying the safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks, the open source time series data visualization display tool Grafana is used to establish a data connection with the database through its own data source configuration tool, collect basic databases and dynamic databases, and design a visualization display page for system data. The system data is processed once using the above model, and the risk calculation results are displayed in a trend chart.

[0100] Embodiment 4:

[0101] Figure 3 1 is a system structure diagram of an oil and gas storage tank safety risk status assessment system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system for evaluating the safety risk status of oil and gas storage tanks, the system comprising:

[0102] The acquisition unit is used to acquire the status parameters of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated in real time, and classify and process the status parameters to obtain multiple evaluation data sets.

[0103] Specifically, the overall strategy of the solution of the present invention is:

[0104] 1) Build basic databases such as medium characteristics, storage capacity, accident cases, and dynamic databases such as temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas monitoring.

[0105] 2) Quantify and classify the inherent safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks based on basic data such as medium characteristics, storage capacity, and accident cases.

[0106] 3) Combine dynamic data such as temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas monitoring to quantify and classify the dynamic safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks.

[0107] 4) Construct a risk control matrix to realize dynamic classification of oil and gas storage tank safety risks.

[0108] Based on this, the status parameters of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated include: basic risk information and dynamic risk information; the basic risk information is the design information of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated, and the danger information of the current storage objects; the dynamic risk information is the storage status information of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated, and the historical hazard information.

[0109] Furthermore, the design information includes: one or more of storage capacity, design pressure, and R value of major hazard sources; the hazard information of the current storage includes: one or more of the lightning temperature, auto-ignition temperature, upper explosion limit, and lower explosion limit of the current storage. The storage status information includes: one or more of the temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas information in the oil and gas storage tank; the historical hazard information includes: one or more of the number of historical accidents, the level of historical accidents, and the number of casualties caused by historical accidents.

[0110] If the scheme of the present invention wants to realize risk assessment based on different risk orientations, it is necessary to classify the collected data to improve the orderliness of the data and ensure the efficiency of subsequent risk assessment. For different risk orientations, corresponding evaluation data sets are generated. Among them, the flash point temperature is the lowest temperature at which a chemical can flash when it encounters a fire source under specified test conditions; the auto-ignition temperature is the lowest temperature at which a chemical can ignite when heated in a combustion-supporting gas without an external fire source; the upper explosion limit is the highest concentration at which a mixture of a chemical and air can explode when it encounters a fire source; the lower explosion limit is the lowest concentration at which a mixture of a chemical and air can explode when it encounters a fire source. Information such as the flash point temperature, auto-ignition temperature, upper explosion limit, and lower explosion limit of chemicals is obtained by querying the SDS data of chemicals. Information such as storage capacity, design pressure, and R value of major hazardous sources is obtained by querying the relevant content in the design scheme of oil and gas storage tanks. Information such as the number, level, and number of casualties of similar medium storage tanks at home and abroad is obtained by statistically analyzing the relevant content in the safety production accident analysis report within a preset time (for example, in the past 10 years) at home and abroad.

[0111] Furthermore, combined with the risk influencing factors in the safe production process of oil and gas storage tanks, the tank temperature, pressure, liquid level, and combustible gas monitoring data are selected as the dynamic data information of safe production of tanks, which is obtained by collecting relevant point data in the industrial control system.

[0112] Preferably, the classifying and processing the state parameters to obtain a plurality of evaluation data sets includes: classifying and processing the state parameters based on basic risk information and dynamic risk information to obtain a basic risk evaluation data set and a dynamic risk evaluation data set, respectively.

[0113] The processing unit is used to calculate the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank based on each evaluation data set.

[0114] Specifically, as mentioned above, the risk of oil and gas storage tanks includes inherent safety risk and dynamic safety risk, so the risk value of each risk needs to be calculated separately, including:

[0115] Preferably, the inherent safety risk value of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated based on the basic risk assessment data set.

[0116] Specifically, each data in the basic risk assessment data set is dimensionally processed to obtain a first intermediate basic risk assessment data set; each data in the first intermediate basic risk assessment data set is forward processed to obtain a second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; a plurality of data clusters are divided based on a pre-constructed inherent safety risk level, and each inherent risk level corresponds to a data cluster; based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided multiple data clusters, the Euclidean distance between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster is iterated until the Euclidean distance is less than a preset Euclidean distance preset value, and the corresponding result data cluster is output, and the inherent safety risk level corresponding to the result data cluster is used as the inherent safety risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

[0117] Further, based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided multiple data clusters, the Euclidean distance between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster is iterated until the Euclidean distance is less than the preset Euclidean distance preset value, and the corresponding result data cluster is output, including: respectively calculating the Euclidean distance between all data in the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and each data cluster, and the calculation formula is:

[0118]

[0119] Among them, d(x,α i ) is the Euclidean distance between all data and the i-th data cluster; x is the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; x j is the jth data; α ij is the mean vector between the j-th data and the i-th data cluster; is the mean vector of the i-th data cluster; C i For the ith data cluster; update the mean vector of the ith data cluster, and repeatedly calculate the Euclidean distance between all data and each data cluster based on the updated mean vector of the ith data cluster, until the latest Euclidean distance calculation result is less than the preset Euclidean distance preset value, stop iteration, and output the corresponding result data cluster.

[0120] Preferably, the dynamic safety risk value of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated based on the dynamic risk assessment data set.

[0121] Specifically, multiple safety events are divided, and the occurrence probability of each safety event is calculated based on the dynamic risk assessment data set; the occurrence probability of each safety event is coupled with the comprehensive occurrence probability; based on the personnel configuration information of the area where the oil and gas storage tank is located and the comprehensive occurrence probability, the accident probability of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated, and based on the accident probability and a preset dynamic risk grading table, the dynamic risk level of the current oil and gas storage tank is determined as the dynamic risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

[0122] Preferably, the safety events include: failure of a process protection layer, failure of an equipment status protection layer, and failure of a leakage monitoring protection layer.

[0123] Furthermore, the multiple security events are divided, and the occurrence probability of each security event is calculated based on the dynamic risk assessment data set, and the calculation formula is:

[0124]

[0125] in, is the probability of the occurrence of the ith security event; T i F is the number of successful protection layer triggering of the i-th security event within the preset historical period; i It is the number of protection layer trigger failures for the i-th security event within the preset historical period.

[0126] The matrix construction unit is used to construct a dynamic risk control matrix for oil and gas storage tanks based on the risk values ​​of each risk direction.

[0127] Specifically, the probability of risk occurrence and the expected consequences after the risk occurs are determined based on the risk value of each risk direction; the probability of risk occurrence and the expected consequences after the risk occurs are used as the two dimensions of the dynamic risk control matrix, and the matrix is ​​constructed based on the determined two dimensions to obtain the dynamic risk control matrix.

[0128] A rating unit is used to perform real-time risk rating on the oil and gas storage tank based on the dynamic risk control matrix, and push the real-time risk rating result to the monitoring end.

[0129] Preferably, the system includes: a display unit, configured at the monitoring end, for displaying the risk rating result; the display unit is configured with a Grafana tool for performing data visualization display.

[0130] In one possible implementation, in response to the need to display safety risks of oil and gas storage tanks, the open source time series data visualization display tool Grafana is used to establish a data connection with the database through its own data source configuration tool, collect basic databases and dynamic databases, and design a visualization display page for system data. The system data is processed once using the above model, and the risk calculation results are displayed in a trend chart.

[0131] The embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which instructions are stored, which, when executed on a computer, enable the computer to execute the above-mentioned oil and gas storage tank safety risk status assessment method.

[0132] Those skilled in the art will understand that all or part of the steps in the method for implementing the above-mentioned embodiments can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a program, and the program is stored in a storage medium, including several instructions for making a single-chip microcomputer, a chip or a processor (processor) perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk and other media that can store program codes.

[0133] The optional embodiments of the present invention are described in detail above in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. However, the embodiments of the present invention are not limited to the specific details in the above embodiments. Within the technical concept of the embodiments of the present invention, the technical scheme of the embodiments of the present invention can be subjected to a variety of simple modifications, and these simple modifications all belong to the protection scope of the embodiments of the present invention. It should also be noted that the various specific technical features described in the above specific embodiments can be combined in any suitable manner without contradiction. In order to avoid unnecessary repetition, the embodiments of the present invention will not further describe various possible combinations.

[0134] In addition, various embodiments of the present invention may be arbitrarily combined, and as long as they do not violate the concept of the embodiments of the present invention, they should also be regarded as the contents disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the safety risk status of oil and gas storage tanks, characterized in that: The method comprises: Real-time collection of status parameters of the oil and gas storage tanks to be evaluated, and classification processing of the status parameters to obtain multiple evaluation data sets; Based on each evaluation data set, the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated respectively; Construct a dynamic risk control matrix for oil and gas storage tanks based on the risk values ​​of each risk direction; Based on the dynamic risk control matrix, the oil and gas storage tanks are rated for risk in real time, and the real-time risk rating results are pushed to the monitoring end.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The state parameters of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated include: Basic risk information and dynamic risk information; The basic risk information is the design information of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated, and the hazard information of the current storage objects; The dynamic risk information is the storage status information of the oil and gas storage tanks to be evaluated, as well as the historical hazard information.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The design information includes: One or more of storage capacity, design pressure, and R value of major hazardous sources; The dangerous information of the current stored object includes: One or more of the flash temperature, auto-ignition temperature, upper explosion limit, and lower explosion limit of the current storage material.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The storage status information includes: One or more of the temperature, pressure, liquid level and combustible gas information in the oil and gas storage tank; The historical hazard information includes: One or more of the number of historical accidents, the level of historical accidents and the number of casualties caused by historical accidents.

5. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The classifying and processing the state parameters to obtain a plurality of evaluation data sets includes: The state parameters are classified and processed based on the basic risk information and the dynamic risk information to obtain a basic risk assessment data set and a dynamic risk assessment data set respectively.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The risks of oil and gas storage tanks include inherent safety risks; Based on each evaluation data set, the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated respectively, including: The inherent safety risk value of oil and gas storage tanks is calculated based on the basic risk assessment data set, including: Performing dimensional processing on each item of data in the basic risk assessment data set to obtain a first intermediate basic risk assessment data set; Performing forward processing on each data in the first intermediate basic risk assessment data set to obtain a second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; Divide multiple data clusters based on pre-built inherent safety risk levels, with each inherent risk level corresponding to a data cluster; Based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided multiple data clusters, the Euclidean distance iteration between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster is performed until the Euclidean distance is less than a preset Euclidean distance preset value, and the corresponding result data cluster is output, and the inherent safety risk level corresponding to the result data cluster is used as the inherent safety risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The method of iterating the Euclidean distance between the corresponding oil and gas storage tank and each data cluster based on the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and the divided multiple data clusters, until the Euclidean distance is less than a preset Euclidean distance preset value, and outputting the corresponding result data cluster, includes: The Euclidean distance between all data in the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set and each data cluster is calculated respectively, and the calculation formula is: Among them, d(x,α i ) is the Euclidean distance between all data and the i-th data cluster; x is the second intermediate basic risk assessment data set; x j is the jth data; α ij is the mean vector between the j-th data and the i-th data cluster; is the mean vector of the i-th data cluster; C i is the i-th data cluster; Update the mean vector of the i-th data cluster, and repeatedly calculate the Euclidean distance between all data and each data cluster based on the updated mean vector of the i-th data cluster, until the latest Euclidean distance calculation result is less than the preset Euclidean distance preset value, stop iteration, and output the corresponding result data cluster.

8. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The risks of the oil and gas storage tanks include dynamic safety risks; Based on each evaluation data set, the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank is calculated respectively, including: Calculate the dynamic safety risk value of oil and gas storage tanks based on the dynamic risk assessment data set, including: Classifying multiple security events, and calculating the occurrence probability of various security events based on the dynamic risk assessment data set; Based on the coupling of the occurrence probability of various safety events with the comprehensive occurrence probability; Based on the personnel configuration information of the area where the oil and gas storage tanks are located and the comprehensive occurrence probability, the accident probability of the oil and gas storage tanks is calculated, and based on the accident probability and a preset dynamic risk grading table, the dynamic risk level of the current oil and gas storage tank is determined as the dynamic risk value of the current oil and gas storage tank.

9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that The security incidents include: Failure of the process protection layer, failure of the equipment status protection layer, and failure of the leakage monitoring protection layer.

10. The method according to claim 9, characterized in that The multiple security events are divided, and the occurrence probability of various security events is calculated based on the dynamic risk assessment data set. The calculation formula is: in, is the probability of occurrence of the ith security event; T i The number of successful protection layer triggering of the i-th security event within the preset historical period; F i It is the number of protection layer trigger failures for the i-th security event within the preset historical period.

11. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The dynamic risk control matrix of the oil and gas storage tank is constructed based on the risk value of each risk direction, including: Determine the probability of occurrence of the risk and the expected consequences of the risk after it occurs based on the risk value of each risk direction; The probability of risk occurrence and the expected consequences after the risk occurs are taken as the two dimensions of the dynamic risk control matrix, and the matrix is ​​constructed based on the determined two dimensions to obtain the dynamic risk control matrix.

12. An oil and gas storage tank safety risk status assessment system, characterized in that: The system comprises: A collection unit, used for collecting state parameters of the oil and gas storage tank to be evaluated in real time, and classifying and processing the state parameters to obtain multiple evaluation data sets; A processing unit, used for calculating the risk value of each corresponding risk direction of the oil and gas storage tank based on each evaluation data set; A matrix construction unit, used to construct a dynamic risk control matrix of oil and gas storage tanks based on the risk value of each risk direction; A rating unit is used to perform real-time risk rating on the oil and gas storage tank based on the dynamic risk control matrix, and push the real-time risk rating result to the monitoring end.

13. The system according to claim 12, characterized in that The system comprises: A display unit, configured at the monitoring end, for displaying the risk rating result; The display unit is configured with a Grafana tool for performing data visualization display.

14. A computer-readable storage medium having instructions stored thereon, which, when executed on a computer, enables the computer to execute the oil and gas storage tank safety risk status assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 11.

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