Carbon Pollution Prediction System, Method and Storage Medium Based on Emission Reduction and Carbon Sequestration

Abstract

The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon pollution prediction, and particularly to a carbon pollution prediction system, method and storage medium based on emission reduction and carbon sequestration, including a carbon pollution prediction platform, a carbon information database, a regional environmental analysis unit, a sub-region assessment unit, a regional pollution prediction unit, a prediction verification unit and a carbon pollution management unit; the present invention initially analyzes from the perspective of the environmental information of the target region to understand whether the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect in the current period reaches the expected effect, and conducts an analysis on the supervision and division of carbon emissions in sub-regions through information feedback to further understand the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect of each sub-region in the target region. At the same time, a regional carbon pollution risk prediction analysis is carried out to reasonably plan the carbon pollution management decision of the target region, and a prediction model construction verification feedback analysis is carried out on historical environmental information in a progressive manner to judge whether the carbon pollution prediction result of the target region is standard, so as to improve the accuracy of carbon pollution prediction in the target region.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon pollution prediction, and in particular to a carbon pollution prediction system, method and storage medium based on emission reduction and carbon fixation. Background Art

[0002] Pollution refers to the process of releasing large amounts of carbon compounds such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere due to human activities, leading to global warming and climate change; carbon emissions not only exacerbate global warming and the frequency of extreme weather events, but also directly affect air quality and accelerate air pollution problems in the process of urbanization; predicting the dynamic changes of carbon pollution is crucial for taking effective emission reduction and carbon sequestration measures, and can provide scientific basis and data support for the government and relevant departments to formulate emission reduction policies and manage carbon emissions;

[0003] However, in the existing technology, it is impossible to comprehensively analyze the regional carbon pollution risk situation from both the overall and individual perspectives, which in turn affects the accuracy of the subsequent regional carbon pollution risk prediction results, thereby reducing the efficiency of regional carbon pollution management, and failing to achieve the expected emission reduction and carbon fixation effects. In addition, it is impossible to verify the regional carbon pollution risk prediction results, which leads to large deviations in the prediction results, which is not conducive to the rational management of regional carbon pollution.

[0004] In view of the above technical defects, a solution is now proposed. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a carbon pollution prediction system, method and storage medium based on emission reduction and carbon fixation to solve the technical defects mentioned above. The present invention initially analyzes from the perspective of environmental information of the target area to understand whether the emission reduction and carbon fixation effects in the current period have achieved the expected results, and conducts sub-regional carbon emission supervision division analysis through information feedback to further understand the emission reduction and carbon fixation effects of each sub-region in the target area, so as to carry out targeted emission reduction and carbon fixation optimization adjustments for each region, and at the same time conducts regional carbon pollution risk prediction analysis to determine whether there is a carbon pollution risk in the subsequent target area, so as to reasonably plan the carbon pollution management decisions of the target area, and constructs a prediction model for historical environmental information in a progressive manner to verify feedback analysis to determine whether the carbon pollution prediction results of the target area are standard, so as to improve the accuracy of carbon pollution prediction in the target area.

[0006] The object of the present invention can be achieved by the following technical solutions: A carbon pollution prediction system based on emission reduction and carbon fixation includes a carbon pollution prediction platform, a carbon information library, a regional environmental analysis unit, a sub-regional assessment unit, a regional pollution prediction unit, a prediction verification unit, and a carbon pollution management unit;

[0007] The carbon pollution prediction platform retrieves the environmental information of the target area from the carbon information database and sends the environmental information to the regional environmental analysis unit. After receiving the environmental information, the regional environmental analysis unit immediately conducts an expected assessment and analysis of regional carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration for the environmental information to obtain a carbon emission invalid signal or a carbon emission valid signal;

[0008] The sub-region assessment unit is used to respond to the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal and conduct a sub-region carbon emission supervision and division analysis on the carbon emission assessment coefficient, and conduct an interactive analysis on the obtained high-pollution area, low-pollution area, effective area, and invalid area to obtain a high-pollution emission reduction area, a high-pollution risk area, a low-pollution emission reduction area, and a low-pollution risk area;

[0009] The regional pollution prediction unit is used to respond to the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal and conduct a regional carbon pollution risk prediction analysis to obtain a high-pollution signal or a low-pollution signal;

[0010] The prediction verification unit is used to respond to the high-pollution signal or the low-pollution signal, collect the historical environmental information of the target area, and conduct a prediction model construction verification and feedback analysis on the historical environmental information to obtain a regulation signal, a high-pollution signal, or a low-pollution signal.

[0011] Preferably, the process of the expected assessment and analysis of regional carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration by the regional environmental analysis unit is as follows:

[0012] Set a monitoring period and set it as a time threshold. Divide the time threshold into i sub-time periods, where i is a natural number greater than zero. Obtain the environmental information of the target area in each sub-time period. The environmental information includes carbon emissions and carbon absorption. Furthermore, obtain the value obtained by subtracting the carbon absorption from the carbon emissions, and set the ratio of the value obtained by subtracting the carbon absorption from the carbon emissions to the carbon emissions as the carbon emission assessment coefficient;

[0013] Compare and analyze the carbon emission assessment coefficient with the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold stored in it. Set the ratio of the number of sub-time periods corresponding to the carbon emission assessment coefficient greater than or equal to the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold to the total number of sub-time periods as the carbon pollution probability value, and conduct a discrimination process on the carbon pollution probability value to generate a carbon emission invalid signal or a carbon emission valid signal.

[0014] Preferably, the process of the sub-region carbon emission supervision and division analysis by the sub-region assessment unit is as follows:

[0015] Obtain the carbon emission assessment coefficient of each sub-region block within the time threshold, and conduct a division and discrimination analysis on the carbon emission assessment coefficient. If the carbon emission assessment coefficient is greater than or equal to the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold, then determine the corresponding area as a high-pollution area. If the carbon emission assessment coefficient is less than the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold, then determine the corresponding area as a low-pollution area.

[0016] Preferably, divide the target area into g sub - area blocks, where g is a natural number greater than zero. Obtain the sub - area emission coefficients corresponding to each sub - area block within the historical m time thresholds. The sub - area emission coefficient represents the value obtained by subtracting the sub - area carbon absorption amount from the sub - area carbon emission amount. m is a natural number greater than zero. Establish a rectangular coordinate system with the time threshold as the X - axis and the sub - area emission coefficient as the Y - axis. Plot the sub - area emission coefficient curve by the method of plotting points, and then obtain the change trend value of the sub - area emission coefficient curve, and set it as the carbon emission trend value. Compare and analyze the carbon emission trend value with the preset carbon emission trend value threshold stored in it to obtain the effective area and the invalid area;

[0017] Conduct an interactive analysis of the high - pollution area, low - pollution area, effective area, and invalid area: Obtain the high - pollution emission reduction area, high - pollution risk area, low - pollution emission reduction area, and low - pollution risk area.

[0018] Preferably, the regional carbon pollution risk prediction and analysis process of the regional pollution prediction unit is as follows:

[0019] Obtain the ratio between the number of corresponding invalid areas and the number of corresponding effective areas within the time threshold, and set the ratio between the number of corresponding invalid areas and the number of corresponding effective areas as the regional pollution index. Compare and analyze the regional pollution index with the preset E1 and preset E2 stored in it. E1 < E2, obtain the first - level risk, second - level risk, and third - level risk, and set the first - level risk, second - level risk, and third - level risk as the carbon pollution risk level KS, where KS = 1, 2, 3;

[0020] Obtain the occupancy ratio of the number of occurrences of the carbon pollution risk level KS = 2 or the carbon pollution risk level KS = 3 in the target area within the historical n time thresholds and the current time threshold, and set it as the carbon pollution prediction index. n is a natural number greater than zero. Compare and analyze the carbon pollution prediction index with the preset carbon pollution prediction index threshold stored in it to generate a high - pollution signal or a low - pollution signal.

[0021] Preferably, the prediction model construction, verification, and feedback analysis process of the prediction verification unit is as follows:

[0022] Obtain the historical environmental information of the target area within the historical n time thresholds and the environmental information of the target area within the current time threshold, and pre - process the historical environmental information and construct a carbon emission prediction model and a carbon absorption prediction model. The pre - processing includes data cleaning and filling missing values;

[0023] Based on the carbon emission prediction model and the carbon absorption prediction model, the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value of the target area within the current time threshold are obtained. Furthermore, the difference between the predicted carbon emission value and the carbon emission within the current time threshold, and the difference between the predicted carbon absorption value and the carbon absorption within the current time threshold are obtained, and they are respectively set as the carbon emission error value and the carbon absorption error value. Then, the carbon emission error value and the carbon absorption error value are discriminated and processed to generate a prediction verification signal or a regulation signal.

[0024] Preferably, when a prediction verification signal is generated, the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value are obtained. The ratio between the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value is set as the predicted carbon pollution risk value, and the predicted carbon pollution risk value is compared and analyzed to generate a high pollution signal or a low pollution signal.

[0025] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0026] (1) The present invention initially analyzes from the perspective of the environmental information of the target area to understand whether the carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration effects in the current period have reached the expected effects, so as to reasonably adjust the carbon pollution management plan, which further helps to improve the carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration effects of the target area. By analyzing the carbon emission supervision and division of sub-areas through information feedback, the carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration effects of each sub-area in the target area can be further understood, so as to conduct targeted optimization and adjustment of carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration for each area;

[0027] (2) The present invention conducts regional carbon pollution risk prediction and analysis to determine whether there is a carbon pollution risk in the subsequent target area, so as to reasonably plan the carbon pollution management decision of the target area, which further helps to reduce the continuous carbon pollution risk of the target area. By constructing a verification feedback analysis of the prediction model for historical environmental information in a progressive manner, it is determined whether the carbon pollution prediction result of the target area is standard, so as to provide timely feedback management, and then to investigate the existing prediction interference factors to improve the accuracy of carbon pollution prediction in the target area. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings;

[0029] Figure 1 is the system flow block diagram of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 2 is the method reference analysis diagram of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0031] Next, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0032] Embodiment 1:

[0033] Please refer to Figures 1 to 2 As shown, the present invention is a carbon pollution prediction system based on emission reduction and carbon sequestration, including a carbon pollution prediction platform, a carbon information database, a regional environmental analysis unit, a sub-region assessment unit, a regional pollution prediction unit, a prediction verification unit, and a carbon pollution management unit. The carbon information database is in one-way communication connection with the carbon pollution prediction platform, the carbon pollution prediction platform is in one-way communication connection with the regional environmental analysis unit, the regional environmental analysis unit is in one-way communication connection with the sub-region assessment unit, the regional pollution prediction unit, and the carbon pollution management unit, the regional pollution prediction unit is in one-way communication connection with the prediction verification unit, and both the sub-region assessment unit and the prediction verification unit are in one-way communication connection with the carbon pollution management unit;

[0034] The carbon pollution prediction platform retrieves the environmental information of the target area from the carbon information database and sends the environmental information to the regional environmental analysis unit. After receiving the environmental information, the regional environmental analysis unit immediately conducts a regional emission reduction and carbon sequestration expected assessment analysis on the environmental information to understand whether the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect in the current period reaches the expected effect, so as to reasonably adjust the carbon pollution management plan, thereby helping to improve the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect of the target area. The specific process of the regional emission reduction and carbon sequestration expected assessment analysis is as follows:

[0035] Set a monitoring period and set it as a time threshold. Divide the time threshold into i sub-time periods, where i is a natural number greater than zero. Obtain the environmental information of the target area in each sub-time period. The environmental information includes carbon emissions and carbon absorption. Then obtain the value obtained by subtracting the carbon absorption from the carbon emissions, and set the ratio of the value obtained by subtracting the carbon absorption from the carbon emissions to the carbon emissions as the carbon emission assessment coefficient. It should be noted that the larger the value of the carbon emission assessment coefficient, the greater the risk of the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect in the target area;

[0036] Compare and analyze the carbon emission assessment coefficient with the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold stored in it. Set the ratio of the number of sub-time periods corresponding to the carbon emission assessment coefficient greater than or equal to the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold to the total number of sub-time periods as the carbon pollution probability value. It should be noted that the larger the value of the carbon pollution probability value, the greater the risk of the effectiveness of the current emission reduction plan and the higher the difficulty of achieving the preset emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect;

[0037] And perform discrimination processing on the carbon pollution probability value:

[0038] If the carbon pollution probability value is greater than the preset carbon pollution probability value threshold, a carbon emission invalid signal is generated;

[0039] If the carbon pollution probability value is less than or equal to the preset carbon pollution probability value threshold, a carbon emission valid signal is generated, and the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal is sent to the carbon pollution management unit. After receiving the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal, the carbon pollution management unit immediately displays the preset warning text corresponding to the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal, so as to intuitively understand whether the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect in the current period reaches the expected effect, so as to reasonably adjust the carbon pollution management plan, which in turn helps to improve the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect in the target area;

[0040] When a carbon emission invalid signal or a carbon emission valid signal is generated, the sub-region evaluation unit is used to respond to the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal and conduct a sub-region carbon emission supervision division analysis on the carbon emission evaluation coefficient, so as to further understand the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect of each sub-region in the target area, so as to conduct targeted emission reduction and carbon sequestration optimization adjustments for each region. The specific sub-region carbon emission supervision division analysis process is as follows:

[0041] Obtain the carbon emission evaluation coefficients of each sub-region block within the time threshold, and conduct a division discrimination analysis on the carbon emission evaluation coefficients. If the carbon emission evaluation coefficient is greater than or equal to the preset carbon emission evaluation coefficient threshold, the corresponding region is determined as a high-pollution region; if the carbon emission evaluation coefficient is less than the preset carbon emission evaluation coefficient threshold, the corresponding region is determined as a low-pollution region;

[0042] Divide the target area into g sub-region blocks, where g is a natural number greater than zero. Obtain the sub-region emission coefficients corresponding to each sub-region block within the historical m time thresholds. The sub-region emission coefficient represents the value obtained by subtracting the sub-region carbon absorption amount from the sub-region carbon emission amount, and m is a natural number greater than zero. Establish a rectangular coordinate system with the time threshold as the X-axis and the sub-region emission coefficient as the Y-axis, draw the sub-region emission coefficient curve by the method of plotting points, and then obtain the change trend value of the sub-region emission coefficient curve, and set it as the carbon emission trend value, and compare and analyze the carbon emission trend value with the preset carbon emission trend value threshold stored in it:

[0043] If the carbon emission trend value is less than or equal to the preset carbon emission trend value threshold, the corresponding region is determined as an effective region;

[0044] If the carbon emission trend value is greater than the preset carbon emission trend value threshold, the corresponding region is determined as an invalid region;

[0045] Conduct an interactive analysis on the high-pollution region, low-pollution region, effective region and invalid region:

[0046] Set the sub-regions corresponding to both the highly polluted area and the effective area as the highly polluted emission reduction areas;

[0047] Set the sub-regions corresponding to both the highly polluted area and the ineffective area as the highly polluted risk areas;

[0048] Set the sub-regions corresponding to both the lowly polluted area and the effective area as the lowly polluted emission reduction areas;

[0049] Set the sub-regions corresponding to both the lowly polluted area and the ineffective area as the lowly polluted risk areas;

[0050] Furthermore, send the highly polluted emission reduction areas, highly polluted risk areas, lowly polluted emission reduction areas, and lowly polluted risk areas to the carbon pollution management unit. The carbon pollution management unit displays corresponding preset warning texts in the highly polluted emission reduction areas, highly polluted risk areas, lowly polluted emission reduction areas, and lowly polluted risk areas. On the premise that the overall emission reduction and carbon sequestration plan for the target area is effective, further understand the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effects of each sub-region in the target area, so as to make targeted optimization adjustments for emission reduction and carbon sequestration in each area.

[0051] Embodiment 2:

[0052] When a carbon emission invalid signal or a carbon emission valid signal is generated, the regional pollution prediction unit is used to respond to the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal and conduct regional carbon pollution risk prediction and analysis to determine whether there is a carbon pollution risk in the subsequent target area, so as to reasonably plan the carbon pollution management decision of the target area, and further help reduce the continuous carbon pollution risk of the target area. The specific process of regional carbon pollution risk prediction and analysis is as follows:

[0053] Obtain the ratio between the number of corresponding ineffective areas and the number of corresponding effective areas within the time threshold, and set the ratio between the number of corresponding ineffective areas and the number of corresponding effective areas as the regional pollution index. It should be noted that the larger the value of the regional pollution index, the worse the emission reduction and carbon sequestration effect of the target area within the current time threshold; compare and analyze the regional pollution index with the preset E1 and preset E2 stored therein, E1 < E2:

[0054] If the regional pollution index > E2, it is determined as a first-level risk;

[0055] If E1 ≤ regional pollution index ≤ E2, it is determined as a second-level risk;

[0056] If the regional pollution index < E1, it is determined as a third-level risk. Among them, the carbon pollution risks corresponding to the first-level risk, second-level risk, and third-level risk decrease in turn. The first-level risk, second-level risk, and third-level risk are set as the carbon pollution risk level KS, and KS = 1, 2, 3. That is, when the carbon pollution risk level KS = 1, it represents the first-level risk; when the carbon pollution risk level KS = 2, it represents the second-level risk; when the carbon pollution risk level KS = 3, it represents the third-level risk;

[0057] Obtain the ratio of the number of occurrences of the carbon pollution risk level KS = 2 or the carbon pollution risk level KS = 3 within the historical n time thresholds and the current time threshold in the target area, and set it as the carbon pollution prediction index. n is a natural number greater than zero. It should be noted that the larger the value of the carbon pollution prediction index, the greater the carbon pollution prediction risk. Compare and analyze the carbon pollution prediction index with the preset carbon pollution prediction index threshold entered therein:

[0058] If the carbon pollution prediction index is greater than or equal to the preset carbon pollution prediction index threshold, a high-pollution signal is generated;

[0059] If the carbon pollution prediction index is less than the preset carbon pollution prediction index threshold, a low-pollution signal is generated. Send the high-pollution signal or low-pollution signal to the carbon pollution management unit through the prediction verification unit. After receiving the high-pollution signal or low-pollution signal, the carbon pollution management unit immediately displays the preset warning text corresponding to the high-pollution signal or low-pollution signal, so as to predict the carbon pollution risk of the target area, so as to reasonably plan the carbon pollution management decision of the target area, and further help reduce the continuous carbon pollution risk of the target area;

[0060] The prediction verification unit is used to respond to the high-pollution signal or low-pollution signal, collect the historical environmental information of the target area, and conduct prediction model construction verification and feedback analysis on the historical environmental information to judge whether the carbon pollution prediction result of the target area is standard, so as to provide timely feedback management, and then investigate the existing prediction interference factors to improve the carbon pollution prediction accuracy of the target area. The specific prediction model construction verification and feedback analysis process is as follows:

[0061] Obtain the historical environmental information of the target area within the historical n time thresholds and the environmental information of the target area within the current time threshold, and preprocess the historical environmental information and construct a carbon emission prediction model and a carbon absorption prediction model. The preprocessing includes data cleaning, filling missing values, etc.;

[0062] Based on the carbon emission prediction model and the carbon absorption prediction model, the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value of the target area within the current time threshold are obtained, and then the difference between the predicted carbon emission value and the carbon emission within the current time threshold and the difference between the predicted carbon absorption value and the carbon absorption within the current time threshold are obtained, and they are set as the carbon emission error value and the carbon absorption error value respectively;

[0063] And the carbon emission error value and carbon absorption error value are distinguished:

[0064] If the carbon emission error value falls within the preset carbon emission error value range, and the carbon absorption error value falls within the preset carbon absorption error value range, a prediction verification signal is generated;

[0065] If the carbon emission error value does not fall within the preset carbon emission error value range, or the carbon absorption error value does not fall within the preset carbon absorption error value range, a control signal is generated and sent to the carbon pollution management unit. After receiving the control signal, the carbon pollution management unit immediately displays the carbon emission error value or carbon absorption error value that does not fall within the corresponding preset range, so as to optimize and adjust one or both of the carbon emission prediction model and the carbon absorption prediction model according to the displayed data to improve the accuracy of the prediction result.

[0066] When the prediction verification signal is generated, the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value are obtained, the ratio between the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value is set as the predicted carbon pollution risk value, and the predicted carbon pollution risk value is compared and analyzed:

[0067] If the predicted carbon pollution risk value is greater than or equal to the preset predicted carbon pollution risk value threshold, a high pollution signal is generated;

[0068] If the predicted carbon pollution risk value is less than the preset predicted carbon pollution risk value threshold, a low pollution signal is generated, and a high pollution signal or a low pollution signal is sent to the carbon pollution management unit. After receiving the high pollution signal or the low pollution signal, the carbon pollution management unit verifies and analyzes the output result of the regional pollution prediction unit. If a high pollution signal and a high pollution signal or a low pollution signal and a low pollution signal are obtained, an output signal is obtained, and the preset warning text corresponding to the high pollution signal or the low pollution signal is immediately displayed. If a high pollution signal and a low pollution signal or a high pollution signal and a low pollution signal are obtained, a prediction deviation signal is obtained, and the preset warning text corresponding to the prediction deviation signal is immediately displayed, so as to provide timely feedback management, and then check the existing prediction interference factors to improve the accuracy of carbon pollution prediction in the target area.

[0069] Embodiment three:

[0070] The carbon pollution prediction method based on emission reduction and carbon fixation includes the following steps:

[0071] Step 1: Collect the environmental information of the target area and conduct an expected assessment and analysis of regional carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration. Discriminate and process the obtained carbon pollution probability values to obtain carbon emission invalid signals or carbon emission valid signals;

[0072] Step 2: Based on the sub-region carbon emission supervision division analysis under information feedback, further determine whether the carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration of each sub-region meet the standards, and obtain high-pollution emission reduction regions, high-pollution risk regions, low-pollution emission reduction regions, and low-pollution risk regions;

[0073] Step 3: Conduct a regional carbon pollution risk prediction analysis in a progressive manner. Compare and analyze the obtained carbon pollution prediction indexes to obtain high-pollution signals or low-pollution signals;

[0074] Step 4: Collect the historical environmental information of the target area and conduct a verification feedback analysis of the prediction model construction to determine whether the carbon pollution prediction result of the target area is standard, and obtain high-pollution signals or low-pollution signals;

[0075] Step 5: Conduct a verification analysis of the obtained high-pollution signals, high-pollution signals, low-pollution signals, and low-pollution signals in an information-interactive manner. If output signals or prediction deviation signals are obtained, feedback to management;

[0076] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the above-mentioned method is implemented;

[0077] In summary, the present invention initially analyzes from the perspective of the environmental information of the target area to understand whether the carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration effects during the current period reach the expected effects, so as to reasonably adjust the carbon pollution management plan, thereby helping to improve the carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration effects of the target area. Through the method of information feedback, the sub-region carbon emission supervision division analysis is carried out to further understand the carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration effects of each sub-region in the target area, so as to carry out targeted optimization and adjustment of carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration for each region. At the same time, a regional carbon pollution risk prediction analysis is carried out to judge whether there is a carbon pollution risk in the subsequent target area, so as to reasonably plan the carbon pollution management decision of the target area, thereby helping to reduce the continuous carbon pollution risk of the target area. Through a progressive manner, a verification feedback analysis of the historical environmental information for the prediction model construction is carried out to judge whether the carbon pollution prediction result of the target area is standard, so as to timely feedback to management, and then to check the existing prediction interference factors to improve the accuracy of carbon pollution prediction in the target area.

[0078] The setting of the threshold value is for the convenience of comparison. Regarding the size of the threshold value, it depends on the amount of sample data and the base quantity set by those skilled in the art for each group of sample data; as long as it does not affect the proportional relationship between the parameters and the quantified values.

[0079] The above are only the preferred specific embodiments of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, according to the technical solution and inventive concept of the present invention, making equivalent substitutions or changes should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A carbon pollution prediction system based on emission reduction and carbon fixation, characterized in that: It includes a carbon pollution prediction platform, a carbon information database, a regional environmental analysis unit, a sub-regional assessment unit, a regional pollution prediction unit, a prediction verification unit, and a carbon pollution management unit; The carbon pollution prediction platform retrieves the environmental information of the target area from the carbon information library and sends the environmental information to the regional environmental analysis unit. After receiving the environmental information, the regional environmental analysis unit immediately performs regional emission reduction and carbon fixation expectation assessment analysis on the environmental information to obtain a carbon emission invalid signal or a carbon emission valid signal; The sub-regional assessment unit is used to respond to the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal and perform sub-regional carbon emission supervision division analysis on the carbon emission assessment coefficient, and interactively analyze the obtained high pollution area, low pollution area, effective area and invalid area to obtain high pollution reduction area, high pollution risk area, low pollution reduction area and low pollution risk area; The regional pollution prediction unit is used to respond to the carbon emission invalid signal or the carbon emission valid signal and perform regional carbon pollution risk prediction analysis to obtain a high pollution signal or a low pollution signal; The prediction and verification unit is used to respond to high pollution signals or low pollution signals, collect historical environmental information of the target area, and perform prediction model construction, verification and feedback analysis on the historical environmental information to obtain a control signal or a high pollution signal or a low pollution signal; The regional emission reduction and carbon sequestration expected assessment and analysis process of the regional environmental analysis unit is as follows: Set a monitoring period and set it as a time threshold, divide the time threshold into i sub-time periods, where i is a natural number greater than zero, obtain the environmental information of the target area in each sub-time period, the environmental information includes carbon emissions and carbon absorption, and then obtain the value obtained by subtracting carbon absorption from carbon emissions, and set the ratio between the value obtained by subtracting carbon absorption from carbon emissions and carbon emissions as the carbon emission assessment coefficient; Compare and analyze the carbon emission assessment coefficient with the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold value stored in the internal data entry, set the ratio between the number of sub-time periods corresponding to the carbon emission assessment coefficient being greater than or equal to the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold value and the total number of sub-time periods as the carbon pollution probability value, and perform discrimination processing on the carbon pollution probability value to generate a carbon emission invalid signal or a carbon emission valid signal; The sub-region carbon emission regulation division analysis process of the sub-region assessment unit is as follows: Obtain the carbon emission assessment coefficient of each sub-region block within the time threshold, and perform a division and discrimination analysis on the carbon emission assessment coefficient. If the carbon emission assessment coefficient is greater than or equal to the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold, the corresponding area is judged to be a high-pollution area; if the carbon emission assessment coefficient is less than the preset carbon emission assessment coefficient threshold, the corresponding area is judged to be a low-pollution area; The target area is divided into g sub-region blocks, where g is a natural number greater than zero, and the sub-region emission coefficient corresponding to each sub-region block within the historical m time thresholds is obtained. The sub-region emission coefficient represents the value obtained by subtracting the sub-region carbon absorption from the sub-region carbon emission. m is a natural number greater than zero. A rectangular coordinate system is established with the time threshold as the X-axis and the sub-region emission coefficient as the Y-axis. The sub-region emission coefficient curve is drawn by plotting points, and then the change trend value of the sub-region emission coefficient curve is obtained, and it is set as the carbon emission trend value. The carbon emission trend value is compared and analyzed with the preset carbon emission trend value threshold stored in the internal input, and the valid area and the invalid area are obtained; Interactive analysis is performed on high-pollution areas, low-pollution areas, effective areas, and invalid areas: high-pollution emission reduction areas, high-pollution risk areas, low-pollution emission reduction areas, and low-pollution risk areas are obtained.

2. The carbon pollution prediction system based on emission reduction and carbon fixation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The regional carbon pollution risk prediction and analysis process of the regional pollution prediction unit is as follows: The ratio between the number of invalid areas and the number of valid areas within the time threshold is obtained, and the ratio between the number of invalid areas and the number of valid areas is set as the regional pollution index. The regional pollution index is compared and analyzed with the preset E1 and preset E2 stored in the internal input, and E1 < E2, and the first-level risk, the second-level risk and the third-level risk are obtained. The first-level risk, the second-level risk and the third-level risk are set as the carbon pollution risk level KS, KS = 1, 2, 3; The percentage of the number of carbon pollution risk levels KS=2 or KS=3 in the target area within the historical n time thresholds and the current time threshold is obtained, and it is set as the carbon pollution prediction index, where n is a natural number greater than zero. The carbon pollution prediction index is compared and analyzed with the preset carbon pollution prediction index threshold entered internally to generate a high pollution signal or a low pollution signal.

3. The carbon pollution prediction system based on emission reduction and carbon fixation according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The prediction model building verification feedback analysis process of the prediction verification unit is as follows: Obtain the historical environmental information of the target area within the historical n time thresholds and the environmental information of the target area within the current time threshold, preprocess the historical environmental information and build a carbon emission prediction model and a carbon absorption prediction model. The preprocessing includes data cleaning and filling in missing values. Based on the carbon emission prediction model and the carbon absorption prediction model, the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value of the target area within the current time threshold are obtained, and then the difference between the predicted carbon emission value and the carbon emission within the current time threshold and the difference between the predicted carbon absorption value and the carbon absorption within the current time threshold are obtained, and they are set as the carbon emission error value and the carbon absorption error value respectively, and the carbon emission error value and the carbon absorption error value are discriminated and processed to generate a prediction verification signal or a control signal.

4. The carbon pollution prediction system based on emission reduction and carbon fixation according to claim 3 is characterized in that: When a prediction verification signal is generated, the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value are obtained, the ratio between the predicted carbon emission value and the predicted carbon absorption value is set as the predicted carbon pollution risk value, and the predicted carbon pollution risk value is compared and analyzed to generate a high pollution signal or a low pollution signal.

5. A carbon pollution prediction method based on emission reduction and carbon fixation, which is applied to the carbon pollution prediction system based on emission reduction and carbon fixation as claimed in claim 4, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Collect environmental information of the target area and conduct regional emission reduction and carbon sequestration expectation assessment and analysis, and perform discrimination processing on the obtained carbon pollution probability value to obtain a carbon emission invalid signal or a carbon emission valid signal; Step 2: Based on the sub-regional carbon emission supervision division analysis under information feedback, further determine whether the emission reduction and carbon fixation of each sub-region meets the standards, and obtain high-pollution emission reduction areas, high-pollution risk areas, low-pollution emission reduction areas, and low-pollution risk areas; Step 3: Perform regional carbon pollution risk prediction analysis in a progressive manner, compare and analyze the obtained carbon pollution prediction index, and obtain high pollution signals or low pollution signals; Step 4: Collect historical environmental information of the target area and conduct verification and feedback analysis on the prediction model construction to determine whether the carbon pollution prediction results of the target area are standard and obtain high pollution signals or low pollution signals; Step 5: Interactively verify and analyze the obtained high pollution signals, high pollution signals, low pollution signals and low pollution signals. If an output signal or a prediction deviation signal is obtained, feedback management is performed.

6. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method according to claim 5 is implemented.

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