A port environmental risk emergency command method and system

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of port environmental safety, and in particular to a port environmental risk emergency command method and system. In the step of determining leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction, the invention performs fitness judgment on updated individuals to determine whether the updated individuals are poor individuals. If the updated individuals are poor individuals, the updated individuals are deleted. The performance of the individuals is judged according to the size of the fitness function of the updated individuals, and if the individual performance is poor, the individuals are eliminated, thereby avoiding the algorithm from falling into a local optimal solution. At the same time, the number of newly added individuals is determined according to the number of iterations of the poor individuals and the fitness function values ​​of the poor individuals, so that after the individuals are eliminated, the corresponding number of newly added individuals are newly added according to the performance of the individuals, so that the increase of the individuals is no longer blind, and the accuracy of genetic algorithm optimization is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of port environmental safety, and in particular to a port environmental risk emergency command method and system. Background Art

[0002] Environmental risks mainly have two characteristics, namely the uncertainty of the occurrence of events and the harmfulness caused by the events. Uncertainty means that it is difficult for people to accurately predict the time, place, intensity, etc. of an event in advance. Harmfulness means that once an event occurs, it will cause damage, loss or harm to the risk bearers, including ecosystems, environmental systems, social and economic systems, and human health; port environmental risk research, as an important branch of environmental risk, has a relatively important research significance. Port hazardous goods container yards are the main environmental safety issues and problems faced by the transportation industry, and there is an urgent need to strengthen the research and governance of environmental risk emergency command technology.

[0003] In the existing technology, when using improved genetic algorithms to solve environmental risk prediction parameters, there are problems such as premature convergence, the algorithm finds local extreme values ​​instead of the true optimal values, and the accuracy of solving the optimal values ​​is low, which in turn affects the accuracy of port environmental risk prediction and the effectiveness of emergency command. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present invention proposes a port environmental risk emergency command method and system, which are used to improve the port environmental risk prediction accuracy and emergency command effect.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, a port environmental risk emergency command method is provided, the method comprising:

[0006] S1: Select representative substances for port environmental risk prediction;

[0007] S2: Determine hazardous chemical leakage scenarios for port environmental risk prediction;

[0008] S3: Determine the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals for port environmental risk prediction;

[0009] The leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction are specifically:

[0010] S3.1: Initialize the genetic algorithm population;

[0011] S3.2: Calculate the fitness of each individual;

[0012] S3.3: Iteratively update the population;

[0013] The S3.3 is specifically as follows: after the individuals in the population are updated by selection, crossover and mutation operations, the fitness of the updated individuals is judged to determine whether the updated individuals are poor individuals; if the updated individuals are poor individuals, the updated individuals are deleted; the number of newly added individuals is determined according to the number of iterations of the poor individuals and the fitness function value of the poor individuals;

[0014] The method of determining the number of newly added individuals according to the number of iterations of the difference individuals and the fitness function value of the difference individuals is specifically as follows:

[0015]

[0016] Wherein, i is the number of newly added individuals, a and b are empirical values, n is the number of iterations of the difference individual, N is the preset maximum number of iterations, fit is the fitness function value of the difference individual, FIT is the preset maximum value of the fitness function, and round() is the rounding function;

[0017] S3.4: When the individual reaches the maximum number of iterations, stop the optimization and output the optimal solution as the leakage parameter of the hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction;

[0018] S4: Select port environmental risk prediction model;

[0019] S5: Determine whether the observation point implements the emergency command plan based on the port environmental risk prediction model, the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters.

[0020] Preferably, in S1, trichlorosilane is used as a representative substance for port environmental risk prediction.

[0021] Preferably, in S2, a movable tank cabinet 26m is selected 3 A full rupture leak encounters precipitation to produce HCl as a leakage scenario.

[0022] Preferably, in S3, the leakage parameters include HCl production amount and HCl production rate.

[0023] Preferably, in S3.1, a group of initial individuals are randomly generated, and the individuals constitute a first generation population. Each individual represents the leakage parameter of the hazardous chemical by a coding method, and the coding method is one of binary coding and real number coding.

[0024] Preferably, in S3.3, judging whether the updated individual is a bad individual is specifically as follows: judging whether the updated individual is a bad individual according to whether the fitness function value is less than a preset threshold, wherein the bad individual is an individual whose fitness function value is less than a preset threshold.

[0025] Preferably, in S4, a port environment risk prediction model is selected based on the Richardson constant of the hazardous gas HCl.

[0026] Preferably, the port environmental risk prediction model is an AFTOX model.

[0027] Preferably, S5 specifically includes: setting the meteorological conditions to the most unfavorable meteorological conditions, inputting the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters into the AFTOX model software package, obtaining the hazardous gas concentration at the observation point, and determining whether to execute the emergency command plan according to the hazardous gas concentration.

[0028] According to another aspect of the present invention, a port environmental risk emergency command system is provided, the system adopts any one of the above-mentioned port environmental risk emergency command methods, and the system comprises:

[0029] Representative substance selection module, used to select representative substances for port environmental risk prediction;

[0030] Leakage scenario determination module, used to determine the hazardous chemical leakage scenarios for port environmental risk prediction;

[0031] A leakage parameter determination module is used to determine the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals for port environmental risk prediction;

[0032] Model selection module, used to select port environmental risk prediction model;

[0033] The emergency command execution judgment module is used to determine whether the observation point executes the emergency command plan based on the port environmental risk prediction model, the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters.

[0034] The advantages and beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0035] When predicting port environmental risks, the present invention performs selection, crossover and mutation operations on individuals in a population to update the population in the step of determining leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction, and then performs fitness judgment on the updated individuals to determine whether the updated individuals are poor individuals; if the updated individuals are poor individuals, the updated individuals are deleted; the idea of ​​survival of the fittest is added to the individual update process, and the process of searching for the optimal solution of the leakage parameters by individuals is regarded as the evolution process of species in nature, and the performance of the individuals is judged according to the size of the fitness function of the updated individuals. If the individual performance is poor, the individuals are eliminated, thereby avoiding the algorithm from falling into a local optimal solution; at the same time, the number of newly added individuals is determined according to the iteration number of the poor individuals and the fitness function value of the poor individuals, so that after the individuals are eliminated, the corresponding number of newly added individuals are newly added according to the performance of the individuals, so that the increase of individuals is no longer blind, and the accuracy of genetic algorithm optimization is improved. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0036] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the drawings required for use in the description of the present invention or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0037] Figure 1 A flow chart of a port environmental risk emergency command method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0038] Figure 2 A flow chart for determining leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals for port environmental risk prediction provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0039] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0040] This embodiment takes the prediction of the impact of hazardous chemicals leaking and producing toxic and harmful pollutants in water on the atmospheric environment as an example. Based on the hazardous goods storage plan provided by the construction unit, the atmospheric environmental risk of port leakage is predicted by identifying leakage scenarios, screening representative substances, and predicting the impact after leakage. Emergency command is then implemented based on the prediction results. Figure 1 As shown, a port environmental risk emergency command method comprises the following steps:

[0041] S1: Select representative substances for port environmental risk prediction;

[0042] Dangerous chemicals that leak and produce toxic and harmful pollutants when in contact with water generally include alkali metal phosphides, sodium dithionite, and trichlorosilane. Among them, alkali metal phosphides such as calcium phosphide, aluminum phosphide, and sodium phosphide produce PH3 when they react with water on rainy days; sodium dithionite leaks on rainy days and is flammable and reacts violently when wet, producing combustible gas H2S; trichlorosilane leaks produce toxic and harmful gas HCl when it rains;

[0043] In this embodiment, trichlorosilane is used as a representative substance for port environmental risk prediction; trichlorosilane belongs to item 4.3, a substance that releases flammable gas when in contact with water.

[0044] S2: Determine hazardous chemical leakage scenarios for port environmental risk prediction;

[0045] Among them, the packaging methods of trichlorosilane are: closed steel drum, 200L; closed steel tank, maximum 60L; movable tank cabinet T14, maximum 26m³;

[0046] This example selects the maximum packaging specification (movable tank cabinet 26m 3 ) Full rupture leakage produces HCl when encountering precipitation as the leakage scenario.

[0047] S3: Determine the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals for port environmental risk prediction;

[0048] In this embodiment, the leakage parameters include HCl production amount and HCl production rate;

[0049] According to the hazardous chemical leakage scenario determined in the above steps, the leakage of trichlorosilane is 31,356 kg, which reacts with water. During this reaction, trichlorosilane is an excess substance, and the reaction process is controlled by the amount of rainwater;

[0050] The reaction equation is as follows:

[0051] 2SiHCl3+3H2O→ (HSiO)2O+6HCl↑

[0052] In the prior art, when determining leakage parameters, the leakage parameters are generally calculated according to the method recommended in Appendix F of the Technical Guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment of Construction Projects, that is, the leakage parameters are calculated by the following formula:

[0053]

[0054] Among them, QLG is the gas leakage rate, C d is the leakage coefficient, A is the leakage port area, ρ m is the average density of the mixture leaking into the air, P is the pressure inside the portable tank, and P c is the critical pressure;

[0055] However, the above method is a leakage parameter calculation method similar to the empirical formula, and there is a situation where the leakage parameter calculation accuracy is low; Genetic Algorithm (GA) is a computational model that simulates the natural evolution process. The algorithm simulates natural selection and genetics mechanisms and uses computer simulation operations to convert the problem-solving process into processes such as crossover and mutation of chromosome genes in biological evolution. When solving more complex optimization problems, genetic algorithms can usually obtain better optimization results quickly; genetic algorithms draw on the evolutionary laws of the biological world, mainly including operations such as selection, hybridization and mutation. The algorithm creates an initial population, calculates the fitness of each individual, performs selection, crossover and mutation operations based on the fitness, and finally reaches the algorithm termination condition. By simulating the natural evolution process, the genetic algorithm has a strong global search capability and can effectively overcome the problem of premature convergence. However, the genetic algorithm is prone to premature convergence, and the algorithm finds a local extreme value instead of the true optimal value. Therefore, based on the above defects, this embodiment proposes a leakage parameter calculation method based on an improved genetic algorithm; used to achieve accurate calculation of leakage parameters;

[0056] Specifically, attached Figure 2 A flowchart for determining the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction is shown in the attached figure. Figure 2 As shown, the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals determined for port environmental risk prediction are specifically:

[0057] S3.1: Initialize the genetic algorithm population;

[0058] A group of initial individuals are randomly generated, which form the first generation population. Each individual represents the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals by coding.

[0059] Furthermore, the encoding method is one of binary encoding and real number encoding;

[0060] S3.2: Calculate the fitness of each individual;

[0061] Fitness plays a key role in genetic algorithms. It not only evaluates the current state of each individual, but also guides how the individual mutates to approach the global optimal solution. The higher the fitness value, the closer the solution represented by the individual is to the optimal solution.

[0062] S3.3: Iteratively update the population;

[0063] The traditional genetic algorithm iteratively updates the population through selection, crossover, and mutation operations to form a new population; however, the above method is prone to premature convergence, and the algorithm finds a local extreme value instead of the true optimal value. Therefore, in order to overcome the above defects, S3.3 is specifically as follows: after the individuals in the population are updated by selection, crossover, and mutation operations, the fitness of the updated individuals is judged to determine whether the updated individuals are poor individuals; if the updated individuals are poor individuals, the updated individuals are deleted;

[0064] Wherein, judging whether the updated individual is a poor individual specifically comprises: judging whether the updated individual is a poor individual according to whether the fitness function value is less than a preset threshold;

[0065] In this step, the idea of ​​survival of the fittest is added to the individual update process. The process of searching for the optimal solution of the leakage parameter is regarded as the evolution process of species in nature. The performance of the individual is judged according to the size of the fitness function of the updated individual. If the individual performance is poor, the individual is eliminated, thus avoiding the algorithm from falling into the local optimal solution; wherein, the poor individual is an individual whose fitness function value is less than a preset threshold;

[0066] At the same time, after the individuals are eliminated, the size of the individuals in the population will be affected, which is not conducive to the algorithm to find the optimal solution. Therefore, S3.3 also includes: determining the number of newly added individuals according to the number of iterations of the poor individual and the fitness function value of the poor individual;

[0067] Furthermore, the number of newly added individuals is determined according to the number of iterations of the difference individuals and the fitness function value of the difference individuals as follows:

[0068]

[0069] Wherein, i is the number of newly added individuals, a and b are empirical values, n is the number of iterations of the difference individual, N is the preset maximum number of iterations, fit is the fitness function value of the difference individual, FIT is the preset maximum value of the fitness function, and round() is the rounding function;

[0070] Among them, the number of newly added individuals is determined according to the number of iterations of the poor individual and the fitness function value of the poor individual, so that after the individual is eliminated, the corresponding number of newly added individuals is newly added according to the performance of the individual, so that the increase of individuals is no longer blind, thereby improving the accuracy of genetic algorithm optimization;

[0071] S3.4: When the individual reaches the maximum number of iterations, stop the optimization and output the optimal solution as the leakage parameter of the hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction;

[0072] In this embodiment, the emergency response and disposal time is set to 1 hour, and the rainfall time is calculated as 1 hour; the rainfall is calculated as 10% of the annual average rainfall (426.1 mm), and the rainfall in 1 hour is 435.4 kg, and 1765.78 kg of HCl is produced in 1 hour, and the production rate is 0.49 kg / s;

[0073] As shown in Table 1, Table 1 shows the leakage parameters of leakage and generation of toxic and harmful pollutants when encountering water.

[0074] Table 1 Leakage parameters of toxic and harmful pollutants generated when leaking and encountering water

[0075]

[0076] S4: Select port environmental risk prediction model;

[0077] Generally, the SLAB model or AFTOX model is used for port environmental risk prediction;

[0078] Among them, the SLAB model is based on the average form of the conservation equations of mass, momentum, energy and matter, so as to meet the requirements of diffusion simulation in heavy gas leakage situations. These equations are used to calculate the spatial average properties of the diffusion of leaked materials, and represent two different diffusion modes in two ways: steady-state plume diffusion mode and instantaneous puff diffusion mode. Depending on the emission time, the smoke cloud is divided into steady-state plume and instantaneous puff or a combination of the two. Continuous emissions are treated according to the steady-state plume model; the steady-state plume model is used to describe the diffusion of the initial smoke cloud in a finite-time leak, and the steady-state plume model can be used throughout the period of continuous leakage from the emission source; but when the leak release stops, the smoke cloud is regarded as an instantaneous puff, and the subsequent diffusion should be calculated using the instantaneous puff model. For emission sources with instantaneous leakage, the instantaneous puff diffusion model is used throughout the process.

[0079] AFTOX is a risk prediction model developed by the modeling party to simulate the diffusion of toxic chemicals. The model is based on the multi-puff Gaussian diffusion model and is suitable for simulating the leakage and emission of neutral gases or light gases with a density less than that of air in flat terrain, as well as the evaporation of liquid pools. The AFTOX risk prediction model can also be used to simulate continuous or instantaneous emissions, leakage emissions of liquid or gaseous substances, ground sources or elevated point sources, and point or surface sources. The AFTOX diffusion model is affected by a variety of parameters in the simulation of the diffusion of neutral gases and light gases, including the coordinates of the accident location, the atmospheric stability level, meteorological parameters, the surface roughness of the accident location, and other parameter types.

[0080] In this embodiment, the port environment risk prediction model is selected based on the Richardson constant (Ri) of the dangerous gas HCl, so the port environment risk prediction model is the AFTOX model;

[0081] S5: Determine whether the observation point implements the emergency command plan based on the port environmental risk prediction model, the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters;

[0082] Specifically, S5 is as follows: setting the meteorological conditions to the most unfavorable meteorological conditions, inputting the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters into the AFTOX model software package, obtaining the hazardous gas concentration at the observation point, and determining whether to execute the emergency command plan according to the hazardous gas concentration.

[0083] Embodiment 2: This embodiment includes a port environmental risk emergency command system, the system adopts a port environmental risk emergency command method described in any one of Embodiment 1, and the system includes:

[0084] Representative substance selection module, used to select representative substances for port environmental risk prediction;

[0085] Leakage scenario determination module, used to determine the hazardous chemical leakage scenarios for port environmental risk prediction;

[0086] A leakage parameter determination module is used to determine the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals for port environmental risk prediction;

[0087] Model selection module, used to select port environmental risk prediction model;

[0088] The emergency command execution judgment module uses the environmental risk as a sudden event to determine whether the observation point implements the emergency command plan based on the port environmental risk prediction model, the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters.

[0089] Embodiment 3, this embodiment includes a computer-readable storage medium, on which a data processing program is stored, and the data processing program is executed by a processor to implement a port environmental risk emergency command method described in any one of Embodiment 1.

[0090] It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the embodiments of this article can be provided as methods, devices (equipment), or computer program products. Therefore, this article can adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Including but not limited to RAM, ROM, EEPROM, flash memory or other memory technology, CD-ROM, digital versatile disk (DVD) or other optical disk storage, magnetic cassette, tape, disk storage or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can be used to store desired information and can be accessed by a computer. In addition, it is well known to those of ordinary skill in the art that communication media generally contain computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules, or other data in modulated data signals such as carrier waves or other transmission mechanisms, and may include any information delivery medium.

[0091] This document is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatuses (devices), and computer program products according to the embodiments of this document. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0092] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0093] The embodiments and / or implementation methods described above are only used to illustrate the preferred embodiments and / or implementation methods of the technology of the present invention, and are not intended to impose any formal restrictions on the implementation methods of the technology of the present invention. Any person skilled in the art may make some changes or modifications to other equivalent embodiments without departing from the scope of the technical means disclosed in the content of the present invention, but they should still be regarded as the technology or embodiments that are essentially the same as the present invention. Note that the above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention and the technical principles used. Those skilled in the art will understand that the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described here, and that various obvious changes, readjustments and substitutions can be made to those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of protection of the present invention. Therefore, although the present invention is described in more detail through the above embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and may also include more other equivalent embodiments without departing from the concept of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is determined by the scope of the appended claims.

Claims

1. A port environmental risk emergency command method, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: S1: Select representative substances for port environmental risk prediction; S2: Determine hazardous chemical leakage scenarios for port environmental risk prediction; S3: Determine the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals for port environmental risk prediction; The leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction are specifically: S3.1: Initialize the genetic algorithm population; S3.2: Calculate the fitness of each individual; S3.3: Iteratively update the population; The S3.3 is specifically as follows: after the individuals in the population are updated by selection, crossover and mutation operations, the fitness of the updated individuals is judged to determine whether the updated individuals are poor individuals; if the updated individuals are poor individuals, the updated individuals are deleted; the number of newly added individuals is determined according to the number of iterations of the poor individuals and the fitness function value of the poor individuals; The number of newly added individuals is determined according to the number of iterations of the difference individuals and the fitness function value of the difference individuals: ； Wherein, i is the number of newly added individuals, a and b are empirical values, n is the number of iterations of the difference individual, N is the preset maximum number of iterations, fit is the fitness function value of the difference individual, FIT is the preset maximum value of the fitness function, and round() is the rounding function; S3.4: When the individual reaches the maximum number of iterations, stop the optimization and output the optimal solution as the leakage parameter of the hazardous chemicals used for port environmental risk prediction; S4: Select port environmental risk prediction model; S5: Determine whether the observation point implements the emergency command plan based on the port environmental risk prediction model, the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters.

2. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S1, trichlorosilane is used as a representative substance for port environmental risk prediction.

3. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S2, select the movable tank cabinet 26m 3 A full rupture leak encounters precipitation to produce HCl as a leakage scenario.

4. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S3, the leakage parameters include HCl production amount and HCl production rate.

5. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 4, characterized in that: In S3.1, a group of initial individuals are randomly generated, and the individuals constitute a first generation population. Each individual represents the leakage parameter of the hazardous chemical by a coding method, and the coding method is one of binary coding and real number coding.

6. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 4 or 5, characterized in that: In S3.3, judging whether the updated individual is a bad individual is specifically as follows: judging whether the updated individual is a bad individual according to whether the fitness function value is less than a preset threshold, wherein the bad individual is an individual whose fitness function value is less than a preset threshold.

7. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 5, characterized in that: In S4, a port environmental risk prediction model is selected based on the Richardson constant of the dangerous gas HCl.

8. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 7, characterized in that: The port environmental risk prediction model is the AFTOX model.

9. A port environmental risk emergency command method according to claim 8, characterized in that: The S5 specifically includes: setting the meteorological conditions to the most unfavorable meteorological conditions, inputting the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters into the AFTOX model software package, obtaining the hazardous gas concentration at the observation point, and determining whether to execute the emergency command plan according to the hazardous gas concentration.

10. A port environmental risk emergency command system, characterized in that: The system adopts a port environmental risk emergency command method according to any one of claims 1 to 9, and the system comprises: Representative substance selection module, used to select representative substances for port environmental risk prediction; Leakage scenario determination module, used to determine the hazardous chemical leakage scenarios for port environmental risk prediction; A leakage parameter determination module is used to determine the leakage parameters of hazardous chemicals for port environmental risk prediction; Model selection module, used to select port environmental risk prediction model; The emergency command execution judgment module is used to determine whether the observation point executes the emergency command plan based on the port environmental risk prediction model, the hazardous chemical leakage scenario and the leakage parameters.

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