Basin dam operation management risk sorting method, system and device and storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a drainage basin dam operation management risk sorting method, system and device and a storage medium, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, constructing a dam operation management risk evaluation index system, and building a dam operation risk evaluation model; s2, constructing a linear programming model through an ideal point approaching method, and calculating the weight of each layer of index; s3, assigning scores to the lowermost layer indexes in the dam risk evaluation model; s4, calculating a dam risk index in combination with the lowest layer index assignment; and S5, carrying out risk sorting and analysis. On the basis of an ideal point approaching method, the dam operation management risk degree setting description is converted into quantitative calculation of the dam risk index, the dam risk index is represented by a visual value, an informatization system is established according to an algorithm, the method is suitable for dam risk sorting, the technical problem that dam risk assessment is low and uncredible is solved, and the risk assessment efficiency is improved. Internal supervision and management are enhanced, various hidden danger treatment and risk management and control measures are implemented, and engineering safety is guaranteed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering management, and in particular to a method, system, electronic equipment and storage medium for ranking risks in basin dam operation management. Background Art

[0002] As an important national infrastructure, hydropower station dams have a wide range of functions, including flood control, irrigation, water supply, power generation and shipping, and are of great significance to the national economy and social development. With the vigorous development of my country's water conservancy and the significant improvement of people's living standards, the safe operation of dams has become a key factor in protecting the lives of residents in downstream areas and the reputation of enterprises. Once an accident occurs, it will not only cause huge economic losses, but also endanger social stability. The risks of dams mainly come from the stability of their structure, the efficiency of operation and management, and the uncertainty of the external environment, especially the management level, which is greatly affected by human factors.

[0003] Therefore, it is particularly necessary to comprehensively evaluate and rank the risks of dam operation management based on the theoretical framework of dam safety risk management, conduct horizontal and vertical comparative analysis, and then formulate personalized response strategies for different risks, clarify the focus of management work, and optimize resource allocation. However, in terms of dam safety management, my country currently pays more attention to the structural safety of the project itself, while not paying enough attention to operation management issues. In addition, the existing operation management evaluation mostly relies on regular on-site inspections and evaluations by experts. This model is easily affected by the technical level and personal preferences of the participants, resulting in the subjectivity and low comparability of the evaluation results.

[0004] Among many safety risk management theories, although the event tree method and dam break consequence analysis method are often used to estimate the possibility and consequences of dam break, the calculation process is cumbersome, demanding, and the reliability of the results is questionable; the dam break pattern analysis method relies too much on expert experience, lacks objectivity, and is difficult to provide reliable risk assessment. Summary of the invention

[0005] The first object of the present invention is to provide a method for ranking risks in river basin dam operation management in response to the above-mentioned problems.

[0006] To achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0007] A method for ranking risks in river basin dam operation management includes the following steps:

[0008] S1: Construct a dam operation management risk assessment indicator system and establish a dam operation risk assessment model;

[0009] S2: Construct a linear programming model by approximating the ideal point method to calculate the weights of each layer of indicators;

[0010] S3: Assign points to the lowest level indicators in the dam risk assessment model;

[0011] S4: Calculate the dam risk index by combining the lowest level indicators with scores;

[0012] S5: Apply the dam risk index to achieve risk ranking of dam groups, ranking of single dam indicators, time series analysis of dam risks, regional analysis of dam risks and analysis of common problems.

[0013] While adopting the above technical solutions, the present invention may also adopt or combine the following technical solutions:

[0014] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention: the dam operation management risk evaluation index system is composed of a progressive hierarchical structure model, which is divided into four levels from top to bottom: target layer, management reason layer, evaluation factor layer, and evaluation index layer.

[0015] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention: the specific process of step S2 is as follows:

[0016] S21: Calculate the weighted sum of the evaluation value and ideal value of the lowest level indicator:

[0017]

[0018] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, wj (j = 1, 2, ..., m) is the indicator weight, h i For x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T The weighted sum of squared distances from x*;

[0019] S22: Make all h i The weight of the indicator with the minimum sum is wj (j = 1, 2, ..., m), and the following linear programming model is solved:

[0020]

[0021] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight;

[0022] S23: Establish the Lagrange function as:

[0023]

[0024] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight, λ is the eigenvalue of the Lagrange function;

[0025] S24: Find partial derivatives separately And set them all to 0, and get the equation system:

[0026]

[0027] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight;

[0028] S25: Solving the above formula, we can get the indicator weight:

[0029]

[0030] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight.

[0031] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the risk ranking of the dam group is as follows: all dams are ranked according to the size of the risk index. The larger the risk index, the more unsafe the dam is and the higher the ranking is.

[0032] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention: the single dam index ranking is: calculating the index values ​​of each operation and management index of a single dam, and ranking them in descending order according to the numerical values.

[0033] The second object of the present invention is to provide a basin dam operation management risk assessment system.

[0034] To this end, the above-mentioned purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0035] A basin dam operation management risk assessment system, characterized in that the assessment system includes the following modules:

[0036] A dam operation risk assessment model construction module, wherein the dam operation risk assessment model construction module is used to construct a dam operation management risk assessment indicator system and establish a dam operation risk assessment model;

[0037] An indicator weight calculation module, which is used to construct a linear programming model by approximating an ideal point method and calculate the weight of each layer of indicators;

[0038] A bottom-level indicator scoring module, which is used to score the bottom-level indicators in the dam risk assessment model;

[0039] A dam risk index calculation module, which is used to calculate the dam risk index by combining the lowest level index scores;

[0040] A dam risk ranking and analysis module, wherein the dam risk ranking and analysis module is used for group dam risk ranking, single dam indicator ranking, dam risk time series analysis, dam risk area analysis and common problem analysis.

[0041] A third object of the present invention is to provide an electronic device.

[0042] To this end, the above-mentioned purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0043] An electronic device includes a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores an executable program, and the processor is configured to run the executable program to execute the basin dam operation management risk ranking method as described above.

[0044] A fourth object of the present invention is to provide a non-volatile storage medium.

[0045] To this end, the above-mentioned purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0046] A non-volatile storage medium stores an executable program, and when the executable program is executed by a processor, the method for ranking the risks of basin dam operation management as described above is implemented.

[0047] The present invention provides a method, system, device and storage medium for ranking the risks of dam operation management in a river basin, which has the following beneficial effects: based on the approximate ideal point method, the stereotyped description of the risk degree of dam operation management is converted into a quantitative calculation of the dam risk index, the dam risk index is represented by a visual numerical value, and an information system is established according to the algorithm, which is suitable for dam risk ranking, solves the technical problems of inefficient and unreliable dam risk assessment in the prior art, and is conducive to strengthening internal supervision and management, implementing various hidden danger control and risk management measures, and ensuring project safety. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the basin dam operation management risk ranking method provided by the present invention.

[0049] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the hierarchical model.

[0050] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the ranking of single dam indicators.

[0051] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of risk time series analysis.

[0052] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of risk area analysis.

[0053] Figure 6 Schematic diagram for analysis of common problems. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0054] The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0055] like Figure 1-6 As shown, a method for ranking the risks of dam operation management in a river basin includes the following steps:

[0056] S1: Construct a dam operation management risk assessment indicator system and establish a dam operation risk assessment model;

[0057] S2: Construct a linear programming model by approximating the ideal point method to calculate the weights of each layer of indicators;

[0058] S3: Assign points to the lowest level indicators in the dam risk assessment model;

[0059] S4: Calculate the dam risk index by combining the lowest level index scores calculated in S3;

[0060] S5: Apply the dam risk index to achieve risk ranking of dam groups, ranking of single dam indicators, time series analysis of dam risks, regional analysis of dam risks and analysis of common problems.

[0061] The dam operation management risk assessment index system is composed of a progressive hierarchical structure model, which is divided into four levels from top to bottom: target level, management reason level, assessment factor level, and assessment index level.

[0062] The specific process of step S2 is as follows:

[0063] S21: Calculate the weighted sum of the evaluation value and ideal value of the lowest level indicator:

[0064]

[0065] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, wj (j = 1, 2, ..., m) is the indicator weight, h i For x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T The weighted sum of squared distances from x*;

[0066] S22: Make all h iThe weight of the indicator with the minimum sum is wj (j = 1, 2, ..., m), and the following linear programming model is solved:

[0067]

[0068]

[0069] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight;

[0070] S23: Establish the Lagrange function as:

[0071]

[0072] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight, λ is the eigenvalue of the Lagrange function;

[0073] S24: Find partial derivatives separately And set them all to 0, and get the equation system:

[0074]

[0075] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij(i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight;

[0076] S25: Solving the above formula, we can get the indicator weight:

[0077]

[0078] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight.

[0079] The risk ranking of a group of dams is as follows: all dams are ranked according to the size of the risk index. The larger the risk index, the more unsafe the dam is and the higher the ranking.

[0080] The ranking of single dam indicators is as follows: calculate the index values ​​of each operation and management index of a single dam, and sort them in descending order.

[0081] A basin dam operation management risk assessment system, based on the basin dam operation management risk ranking method mentioned above, can realize dynamic calculation and real-time ranking of basin dam risks according to the dam operation management situation. The assessment system includes the following modules:

[0082] A dam operation risk assessment model construction module is used to construct a dam operation management risk assessment indicator system and establish a dam operation risk assessment model;

[0083] The indicator weight calculation module is used to construct a linear programming model by approximating the ideal point method and calculate the weight of each layer of indicators;

[0084] The lowest level indicator scoring module is used to score the lowest level indicators in the dam risk assessment model;

[0085] Dam risk index calculation module, which is used to calculate the dam risk index by combining the lowest level index scores;

[0086] Dam risk ranking and analysis module: The dam risk ranking and analysis module is used for group dam risk ranking, single dam indicator ranking, dam risk time series analysis, dam risk area analysis and common problem analysis.

[0087] This example takes the real management situation of five hydropower station dams in the same basin as the research object, simulates the risk ranking process of basin dam operation management, and selects five dams as follows:

[0088] Table 1

[0089]

[0090] Specifically, the above basin dam operation management risk ranking method is implemented through the following steps:

[0091] S1: Based on the collected accident cases and hydropower station dam operation defect reports, refer to the "Guidelines for Safety Evaluation of Hydropower Station Dam Operation", explore the dam operation management evaluation indicators, build a dam operation management risk evaluation indicator system, and establish a dam operation risk evaluation model:

[0092] The risk assessment indicator system is composed of several progressive hierarchical structure models. For a certain indicator, the level indicator of the upper level indicator is called the parent level indicator, and the level indicator of the lower level indicator is called the child level indicator, such as Figure 2 As shown, the progressive hierarchical structure model in this embodiment is divided into four levels from top to bottom: target level, management reason level, evaluation factor level, and evaluation index level.

[0093] The first layer is the target layer, specifically the dam operation management risk R;

[0094] The second layer is the management cause layer, which mainly includes various factors that lead to dam damage. 1 , Risk AssessmentD 2 , hidden danger management D 3 , Flood prevention management 4 , Gate and opening and closing equipment management D 5 , monitoring and surveillance D 6 , Inspection and maintenance D 7 , Emergency Management 8 ;

[0095] The third layer is the evaluation factor layer, basic management D 1 Corresponding institutions, systems, and personnel 1 , risk assessment D 2 Corresponding hazard source identification F 2 , Risk Analysis and RatingF 3 , Risk Control Measures and Plans F 4 , hidden danger management D 3 Corresponding hidden danger identification F 5 , Hidden danger management6 , Flood prevention management 4 Corresponding to the flood preparation F 7 、F 8 , after the flood season, increase F 9 , Gate and opening and closing equipment management D 5 Operation, inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation of gates and opening and closing equipment 10 , monitoring and control D 6 Corresponding safety monitoring F 11 、Automation System F 12 , Security Monitoring 13 , check and maintain D 7 Corresponding inspection contents and requirements F 14 , Maintenance content and requirements F 15 , Emergency Management D 8 Emergency Preparedness F 16 、Emergency Response 17 ;

[0096] The fourth layer is the evaluation index layer, which includes institutions, systems, and personnel. 1 Corresponding responsibility systemJ 1 , System Construction 2 、Job Position PersonnelJ 3 , Hazard identification 2 Corresponding hazard source identification 4 、Hazard source listJ 5 , Risk Analysis and Rating F 3 Correspondence Analysis and RatingJ 6 , Risk Control Measures and Plans F 4 Prepare corresponding measures and plans 7 , implementation measures and plansJ 8 , hidden danger identification F 5 Corresponding hidden dangers investigation 9 、Hazard identification 10 , hidden danger management 6 Preparation and review of response plansJ 11 , Governance Implementation 12 , Governance acceptance 13 Safeguard measures J 14 , Emergency Response 15 , preparation before the flood season 7 Corresponding resource arrangement and institution establishment 16 , prepare programs and plansJ 17 , prepare emergency plans 18 , Plan ExerciseJ 19 , Inspection and maintenance J 20 , Flood response 8 Corresponding flood control dispatch 21 , Inspection during the flood season 22, Flood prevention duty 23 、Monitoring and early warning 24 , Flood information sent to J 25 、Emergency Response 26 , after the flood season, increase F 9 Corresponding post-flood inspection 27 、Water damage treatment 28 , Flood prevention summary 29 , operation, inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation of gates and opening and closing equipment F 10 Corresponding equipment and operation managementJ 30 , Power ManagementJ 31 , Inspection, maintenance and repair J 32 , Detection J 33 、Defect management 34 , update and transformationJ 35 、Emergency Response 36 , Safety Monitoring F 11 Corresponding to daily observation J 37 , seal and stop testingJ 38 , Inspection and maintenance 39 , Secondary instrument inspectionJ 40 , Data compilation and analysis 41 , Update and RenovationJ 42 , Outsourcing Management 43 , Automation System F 12 Corresponding design management 45 , trial operation and acceptance J 46 , maintenance and renovationJ 47 , Security Monitoring F 13 Corresponding monitoring and warning 48 , Exception handling 49 , inspection content and requirements F 14 Corresponding to daily inspectionJ 50 、Special situation inspectionJ 51 、Annual detailed inspectionJ 52 , Special inspection J 53 , Maintenance content and requirements F 15 Corresponding work plan J 54 , Maintenance work 55 、Project Management 56 , Emergency Preparedness 16 Corresponding plan preparation 57 , review and filingJ 58 , Practice and RevisionJ 59 、Monitoring and early warning 60 , Emergency Response F 17 Correspondence Information Report J 61 , Emergency Command and Response 62 , Summary 63 .

[0097] S2: The linear programming model is constructed by approximating the ideal point method to calculate the weights of each layer of indicators and includes the following steps:

[0098] S21: Calculate the weighted sum of the evaluation value and ideal value of the lowest level indicator:

[0099]

[0100] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, wj (j = 1, 2, ..., m) is the indicator weight, h i For x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T The weighted sum of squared distances from x*;

[0101] S22: Make all h i The weight of the indicator with the minimum sum is wj (j = 1, 2, ..., m), and the following linear programming model is solved:

[0102]

[0103] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight;

[0104] S23: Establish the Lagrange function as:

[0105]

[0106] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i=(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight, λ is the eigenvalue of the Lagrange function;

[0107] S24: Find partial derivatives separately And set them all to 0, and get the equation system:

[0108]

[0109] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight;

[0110] S25: Solving the above formula, we can get the indicator weight:

[0111]

[0112] In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight.

[0113] After the flood season, increase F 9 Post-flood inspection 27 、Water damage treatment 28 , Flood prevention summary 29For example, the weighted scores are as follows:

[0114] Table 2

[0115] Water damage treatment Post-flood inspection Flood prevention summary Weight 0.384 0.308 0.308

[0116] Based on the progressive hierarchical structure model, the weights of indicators at each level are obtained as follows:

[0117] Table 3

[0118]

[0119]

[0120]

[0121] S3: Assign points to the lowest level indicators in the dam risk assessment model. The scoring method is as follows:

[0122] For NEA registered dams:

[0123] 1) For normal dams with a dam safety management performance assessment of more than 80 points, the safety registration level is Class A;

[0124] 2) For normal dams with a dam safety management performance assessment score of more than 60 points but less than 80 points, the safety registration grade is Class B;

[0125] 3) Normal dams with a dam safety management performance assessment score below 60 will not be registered.

[0126] In order to facilitate the registration work with the National Energy Administration, considering making full use of the existing dam registration performance assessment conclusions, the dam operation management level uses the dam management performance assessment evaluation score: dams with a performance assessment evaluation of more than 80 points have a score of 1; dams with a performance assessment evaluation between 70 and 80 have a score of 2; dams with a performance assessment evaluation between 60 and 70 have a score of 3; dams with a performance assessment evaluation of less than 60 points have a score of 4. The corresponding values ​​of the performance assessment evaluation scores are shown in the following table:

[0127] Table 4

[0128] [80，100] [70，80) [60，70) [0，60) 1 2 3 4

[0129] For dams not registered with the Energy Bureau: they are divided into four categories: excellent, good, medium, and poor according to the work progress. The index value interval is between [0, 4]. The dam operation management level index G is calculated based on the value of each index, as shown in the following formula:

[0130] G=∑Wi*ji

[0131] In the formula, ji is the indicator value, and Wi is the indicator weight;

[0132] The "comment set" and value assignment for dam operation and management level are shown in the following table:

[0133] Table 5

[0134] excellent good middle Difference [0，1] (1，2] (2，3] (3，4]

[0135] S4: Combined with the lowest level indicator scoring, the dam risk index is calculated. The dam risk index is calculated by multiplying the score table of the dam operation and management status in the approval document when the dam is registered with the weight and score of the lowest level indicator. The comprehensive dam risk index is shown in the following table:

[0136] Table 6

[0137]

[0138] S5: Using the dam risk index, according to the evaluation results, the risks of the five dams are ranked from high to low as follows: Dam C > Dam D = Dam E > Dam A = Dam B.

[0139] A basin dam operation management risk assessment system, the assessment system includes the following modules:

[0140] A dam operation risk assessment model construction module is used to construct a dam operation management risk assessment indicator system and establish a dam operation risk assessment model;

[0141] The indicator weight calculation module is used to construct a linear programming model by approximating the ideal point method and calculate the weight of each layer of indicators;

[0142] The lowest level indicator scoring module is used to score the lowest level indicators in the dam risk assessment model;

[0143] The dam risk index calculation module is used to calculate the dam risk index by combining the lowest level indicator scores. The evaluation system is based on the basin dam operation management risk ranking method mentioned above. It can realize the dynamic calculation and real-time ranking of basin dam risks according to the dam operation management situation, and assist managers to find high-risk dams that need to be focused on. The evaluation system functions include group dam safety ranking, single dam indicator ranking, dam risk time series analysis, dam risk area analysis, and common problem analysis:

[0144] The main purpose of dam group risk ranking is to facilitate managers to focus on dams with poor safety conditions and greater risks, so as to achieve accurate allocation of management resources. In specific applications, the comprehensive risk index of each dam should be calculated through the system, and then sorted according to the index size. The larger the risk index, the less safe the dam is and the higher the ranking.

[0145] like Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the main purpose of ranking single dam indicators is to facilitate managers to quickly locate the indicators that contribute most to the risk index in a certain dam, help managers focus on key issues, and the indicators with higher rankings indicate that the corresponding problems are more prominent, which helps plant and station level managers locate the safety shortcomings and management shortcomings of the dam, and then take various measures to eliminate the impact of the problems with high risk contribution. The risk contribution calculation method is to calculate the indicator values ​​of each operation and management indicator and sort them in order from high to low.

[0146] like Figure 4 As shown in the figure, the time series analysis of dam risk refers to the analysis of the development characteristics of the group dam risk index and the single dam risk index over time, so as to grasp the development process and trend of the overall safety of the group dams and the safety of a certain dam. The group dam risk index refers to the average value of the comprehensive risk index of all dams or the median value of the comprehensive risk index of all dams. By recording the group dam risk index of each period and analyzing the development trend of the group dam risk index, the overall safety status of the group dam safety at different times can be revealed. On the basis of grasping the development and change process of the group dam risk index, the factors affecting the change of the group dam risk index (such as rainfall, flood season factors, etc.) can be analyzed so as to take corresponding measures according to the influencing factors. Similarly, the time series analysis of the risk index of a certain dam can also be carried out to grasp the development trend and change reasons of the single dam risk index.

[0147] like Figure 5 As shown in the figure, dam risk regional analysis refers to the calculation of group dam risk indexes according to different regions, analyzing the regional characteristics of group dam safety, that is, the impact of the region on dam safety, such as whether the overall dam comprehensive risk index of dams located in Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan is higher than that of other regions. The time series analysis of group dam risk indexes can be carried out by region to understand the development trend and reasons of dam comprehensive risk indexes in different regions.

[0148] like Figure 6 As shown in the figure, common problem analysis refers to statistical analysis of indicators with problems in operation and management based on the analysis results of risk indicators of each single dam, and analysis of the number and frequency of each problem indicator in the group of dams, so as to find common problems, especially to identify universal problems in dam safety management. For the common problems found, it is necessary to analyze the causes of their occurrence and take targeted measures to eliminate the common problems, so as to effectively reduce the dam safety risks and improve the overall safety level of the group's dams.

[0149] The present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising a processor and a memory for storing processor executable instructions, wherein the processor is configured to execute the executable instructions to implement the above-mentioned method for ranking the risks of river basin dam operation management.

[0150] The present invention also provides a non-volatile storage medium, in which an executable program is stored. When the executable program is executed by a processor, the risk ranking method for basin dam operation management as described above is implemented.

[0151] The above-mentioned specific implementation methods are used to explain the present invention and are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, rather than limiting the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made to the present invention within the spirit of the present invention and the protection scope of the claims shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for ranking the risks of dam operation management in a river basin, characterized in that: The steps include: S1: Construct a dam operation management risk assessment indicator system and establish a dam operation risk assessment model; S2: Construct a linear programming model by approximating the ideal point method and calculate the weights of indicators at each level; S3: Assign points to the lowest level indicators in the dam risk assessment model; S4: Calculate the dam risk index by combining the lowest level indicators with scores; S5: Apply the dam risk index to achieve risk ranking of dam groups, ranking of single dam indicators, time series analysis of dam risks, regional analysis of dam risks and analysis of common problems.

2. The method for ranking the risk of dam operation management in a river basin according to claim 1 is characterized by: The dam operation management risk assessment index system is composed of a progressive hierarchical structure model, which is divided into four levels from top to bottom: a target level, a management reason level, an assessment factor level, and an assessment index level.

3. The method for ranking the risk of dam operation management in a river basin according to claim 1 is characterized by: The specific process of step S2 is as follows: S21: Calculate the weighted sum of the evaluation value and ideal value of the lowest level indicator: In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight, h i For x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T With x * The weighted sum of squared distances between S22: Make all h i The weight of the indicator with the minimum sum is w j (j=1,2,…,m), solve the following linear programming model: In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight; S23: Establish the Lagrange function as: In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight, λ is the eigenvalue of the Lagrange function; S24: Find partial derivatives separately And set them all to 0, and get the equation system: In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight; S25: Solving the above formula, we can get the indicator weight: In the above formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, n is the number of evaluation objects, x i =(x i1 ,x i2 ,…,x im ) T is the evaluation value of each indicator of the actual evaluated object, is the ideal value of each indicator, x ij (i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,…,m) is the status data of the jth indicator in the i-th evaluated object, w j (j=1,2,…,m) is the indicator weight.

4. The method for ranking the risk of dam operation management in a river basin according to claim 1 is characterized by: The risk ranking of the dam group is as follows: all dams are ranked according to the size of the risk index. The larger the risk index, the more unsafe the dam is and the higher the ranking is.

5. The method for ranking the risk of dam operation management in a river basin according to claim 1 is characterized by: The single dam index ranking is as follows: the index values ​​of each operation and management index of a single dam are calculated, and the index values ​​are sorted in descending order.

6. A basin dam operation management risk assessment system, characterized by: The evaluation system includes the following modules: A dam operation risk assessment model construction module, wherein the dam operation risk assessment model construction module is used to construct a dam operation management risk assessment indicator system and establish a dam operation risk assessment model; An indicator weight calculation module, which is used to construct a linear programming model by approximating an ideal point method and calculate the weight of each layer of indicators; A bottom-level indicator scoring module, which is used to score the bottom-level indicators in the dam risk assessment model; A dam risk index calculation module, which is used to calculate the dam risk index by combining the lowest level index scores; A dam risk ranking and analysis module, which is used for group dam risk ranking, single dam indicator ranking, dam risk time series analysis, dam risk area analysis and common problem analysis.

7. An electronic device, comprising a memory and a processor, characterized in that: An executable program is stored in the memory, and the processor is configured to run the executable program to execute the steps of the method for ranking basin dam operation management risks as described in any one of claims 1-5.

8. A non-volatile storage medium, characterized in that: The non-volatile storage medium stores an executable program, and when the executable program is executed by the processor, the steps of the method for ranking the risk of river basin dam operation management are implemented as described in any one of claims 1-5.

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