Reservoir capacity expansion planning and scheduling method and system based on hydro meteorological information

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir dispatching, and particularly provides a reservoir capacity expansion planning and dispatching method and system based on hydro meteorological information, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a hydrological hydrodynamic model of a to-be-analyzed region, selecting a capacity expansion reservoir position, and obtaining different-address expansion reservoir capacity information; obtaining a rainfall result of the drainage basin based on the meteorological driving data of the to-be-analyzed area; inputting a precipitation result into a hydrological and hydrodynamic model, carrying out production and confluence calculation on the to-be-analyzed region, and updating the storage capacities of the expansion reservoir and the existing reservoir; and on the basis of the different-address expansion storage capacity information of the reservoir and the storage capacities of the expansion reservoir and the existing reservoir, constructing a reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model, and completing reservoir expansion planning and scheduling. According to the technical scheme, changes of hydro-meteorological conditions are fully considered, on the premise that the risk that an original dam body is heightened is avoided, expansion and efficient dispatching of the reservoir capacity are achieved, and flood control safety and water and power supply in the non-flood season of the downstream and the reservoir area are further guaranteed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir dispatching, and in particular relates to a method and system for reservoir expansion planning and dispatching based on hydrological and meteorological information. Background Art

[0002] At present, numerical weather models are developing rapidly at home and abroad, and the accuracy of weather forecasts is gradually improving. Compared with global models, mesoscale numerical models can capture the characteristics of local meteorological elements in a refined manner, and have been widely used in regional forecast simulations. By rolling up precipitation forecast information, the accuracy of the results is improved while ensuring that the forecast period remains unchanged. In addition, mesoscale numerical models can capture the characteristics of local meteorological elements more accurately, providing a more reliable decision-making basis for flood control, water storage and dispatch management of reservoirs.

[0003] In terms of a series of issues such as reservoir flood control, water storage and dispatching management, reservoir expansion is particularly complex. The dual pressures of climate change and economic and social development have made the adaptability of the original reservoir capacity face severe challenges. The frequent occurrence of extreme precipitation events requires reservoirs to have more adequate flood control capabilities, while the increase in social water consumption has put higher requirements on the storage capacity of reservoirs. On-site expansion is often limited by technical difficulties and geological conditions, with high construction costs and maintenance difficulties, and has high requirements for the original dam body at the address. Therefore, the present invention proposes a reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method and system based on hydrological and meteorological information to solve the defects of the existing technology and realize the expansion of reservoirs at different locations. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention provides a reservoir expansion planning and scheduling method and system based on hydrological and meteorological information. By constructing a hydrological and hydrodynamic model, the off-site expansion capacity of the expanded reservoir is accurately evaluated, and the planning and scheduling of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir are realized, reducing the subjectivity and uncertainty in the planning and scheduling of traditional methods.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following solutions:

[0006] A reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information comprises the following steps:

[0007] S1: Construct a hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on the surface elevation and water system information of the area to be analyzed;

[0008] S2: Based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, obtaining the storage capacity expansion information of the reservoir at a different location;

[0009] S3: based on the meteorological driving data of the area to be analyzed, obtaining the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed;

[0010] S4: inputting the precipitation result into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, calculating the runoff generation and runoff of the area to be analyzed, and updating the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir;

[0011] S5: Based on the information of reservoir expansion capacity at different locations and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir, establish the dispatching principles and construct the reservoir expansion planning and dispatching model;

[0012] S6: Based on the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model, complete the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling based on hydrological and meteorological information.

[0013] Preferably, in step S2, the reservoir capacity expansion information at a different location includes the location and capacity of the expanded reservoir; and the method for obtaining the reservoir capacity expansion information at a different location is:

[0014] S21: Based on the surface elevation information and water system distribution, select and optimize the location of the expanded reservoir to obtain an optimized location of the expanded reservoir;

[0015] S22: Based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model and the location of the expanded reservoir, preset the inflow and outflow flows to obtain the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir corresponding to different water levels;

[0016] S23: obtaining a storage capacity curve of the expanded reservoir based on the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir corresponding to different water levels;

[0017] S24: Based on the location of the expanded reservoir and the storage capacity curve, obtain the off-site expanded storage capacity information of the expanded reservoir.

[0018] Preferably, in step S3, the method for obtaining the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed is:

[0019] S31: Obtain forecast results based on the numerical weather model and background field data of the area to be analyzed;

[0020] S32: extracting precipitation forecast data based on the forecast result;

[0021] S33: using a stepwise correction method to assimilate and calibrate the precipitation forecast data with previous observation data to obtain precipitation results after assimilation and calibration.

[0022] Preferably, in step S31, the method for obtaining the forecast result is:

[0023] S311: constructing a numerical weather model for the area to be analyzed in a multi-layer nested manner, and obtaining the total forecast duration and segment duration of the numerical weather model based on the historical precipitation of the area to be analyzed in the same period combined with the background field data of the nearby time;

[0024] S312: Prepare background field data of the area to be analyzed based on GFS data, start time and forecast duration;

[0025] S313: driving a numerical weather model based on the background field data, simulating a precipitation process, and obtaining an early forecast result;

[0026] S314: When the forecast duration of the numerical weather model reaches the segment duration, the numerical weather model is driven after the background field data is updated to obtain the latest forecast result;

[0027] S315: Rollingly merge the previous forecast results with the latest forecast results to obtain the final forecast results.

[0028] Preferably, in step S4, the runoff calculation includes: slope runoff calculation, river runoff calculation and flood evolution calculation; wherein,

[0029] Calculate the runoff generated by precipitation in the basin based on the Horton infiltration method, calculate the runoff confluence based on the kinematic wave method, and obtain the calculation results of runoff or river inflow;

[0030] Based on the completely solved Saint-Venant equations, river confluence calculation is performed to obtain the river confluence calculation results;

[0031] The two-way interaction between the overflow water volume of the river and the surface space along the river is calculated based on the weir flow formula. Based on the two-way interaction results, the flood evolution process is simulated by the two-dimensional hydrodynamic method to obtain the flood evolution calculation results.

[0032] Preferably, in step S5, the scheduling principles include: flood control priority, maximization of economic benefits and minimization of energy losses;

[0033] Flood control priority: Calculate the difference between the total inflow and the available capacity of existing reservoirs based on weather forecasts and runoff; calculate the minimum water release during the flood season based on the difference;

[0034] Maximizing economic benefits: When the reservoir releases water to generate electricity to meet the needs of the grid, there is power generation benefit, and both the upper and lower reservoirs can release water to generate electricity; when the grid does not need it, the reservoir releases water according to the downstream ecological flow and irrigation production requirements, and generates surplus electricity to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir for energy storage; when the upper reservoir is full, the water is abandoned or no pumping and storage operation is performed;

[0035] Minimizing energy loss: Both the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir give priority to calculating natural water storage, electricity and water storage in the existing reservoir. Water from the existing reservoir is pumped to the expanded reservoir for storage based on the principle of maximizing economic benefits; among them, the existing reservoir is the lower reservoir and the expanded reservoir is the upper reservoir.

[0036] Preferably, the method for minimizing the energy loss is:

[0037] Based on step S4, the actual precipitation result is input into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model to calculate the runoff and obtain the total runoff and available reservoir capacity;

[0038] When the available storage capacity of the expanded reservoir meets the preset storage capacity surplus conditions, and the power and water storage of the existing reservoir meet the economic benefit maximization, the water of the existing reservoir will be pumped to the expanded reservoir for energy storage;

[0039] At the end of the flood season, the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoirs are filled up gradually; during the non-flood season, water is released from the expanded reservoir to the existing reservoirs to generate electricity in turn according to the inflow, ecological base flow and downstream water consumption. The surplus electricity that does not meet the conditions for grid access is continuously pumped from the existing reservoirs and stored in the expanded reservoir.

[0040] The present invention also provides a reservoir expansion planning and dispatching system based on hydrological and meteorological information, which is used to implement the reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method, including:

[0041] The hydrological and hydrodynamic model building module is used to build a hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on the surface elevation and water system information of the area to be analyzed;

[0042] A reservoir capacity expansion information acquisition module is used to obtain the reservoir capacity expansion information at a different location based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model;

[0043] A precipitation result acquisition module is used to obtain the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed based on the meteorological driving data of the area to be analyzed;

[0044] A runoff calculation module is used to input the precipitation results into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, perform runoff calculations in the area to be analyzed, and update the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir;

[0045] The scheduling model building module is used to establish scheduling principles and build a scheduling model for reservoir expansion planning based on the information of reservoir expansion capacity at different locations and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir;

[0046] The reservoir expansion planning and scheduling module is used to complete the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling based on the hydrological and meteorological information based on the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model.

[0047] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0048] Improve the scientific nature of reservoir expansion planning: By constructing a hydrological and hydrodynamic model, the off-site expansion capacity of the expanded reservoir can be accurately evaluated, avoiding the subjectivity and uncertainty in traditional methods.

[0049] Enhance the flexibility of reservoir operation: The operation model based on hydrological and meteorological information can respond to changes in meteorological conditions such as precipitation in real time, dynamically adjust the reservoir's water storage and release strategies, and improve the flexibility and adaptability of reservoir operation.

[0050] Improve the comprehensive benefits of reservoirs: By optimizing expansion and dispatching plans, the comprehensive benefits of reservoirs such as flood control, water supply, and power generation can be maximized, providing strong support for regional economic and social development;

[0051] Based on relatively accurate distribution of precipitation areas and processes, the initial scheduling plan is forecast in advance, which is different from the existing technology of waiting for actual precipitation and flood observation information. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0052] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.

[0053] Figure 1 This is the elevation map of the study area (30m accuracy) of the embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 2 The left side expansion reservoir capacity curve of the embodiment of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 3 The storage capacity curve of the expanded reservoir on the right side of the embodiment of the present invention;

[0056] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of a river channel and a reservoir simulation according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 5 A comparison diagram of the hydrodynamic model and the measured inflow flow rate according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 6 A comparison diagram of reservoir inflow with and without an expanded reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 7 A comparison of the flooding situation of the reservoir area in the embodiment of the present invention with and without the expansion of the reservoir;

[0060] Figure 8 This is a nested graph of the area to be analyzed according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0061] Fig. 9 This is a precipitation process falling area diagram of an embodiment of the present invention;

[0062] Fig.10 This is a diagram of the fusion forecast process of an embodiment of the present invention;

[0063] Fig.11 This is the fused precipitation area map after assimilation in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0064] Fig.12This is a flow chart of a reservoir expansion planning and scheduling method based on hydrological and meteorological information according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0065] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0066] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0067] Embodiment 1

[0068] like Fig.12 As shown, a reservoir expansion planning and scheduling method based on hydrological and meteorological information includes the following steps:

[0069] S1: Construct a hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on the surface elevation and water system information of the area to be analyzed.

[0070] In this embodiment, data such as reservoir boundaries, DEM digital elevation data, surface cover, topography, river width, depth, curvature information, etc. of the area to be analyzed are collected, and a generalized map of the river is obtained based on the collected river-related data, which is finally imported into the model.

[0071] The sub-catchment areas were manually divided based on the river distribution, surface cover and topographic factors in the above-mentioned area to be analyzed, and the runoff parameters of different underlying surface areas were set based on the classification of surface cover data.

[0072] A 2D interval is set in the area to be analyzed, the boundary condition is set to free outflow, a 2D interval grid is generated from the DEM data, and a surface model is constructed to provide basic terrain data for the hydrological and hydrodynamic model.

[0073] S2: Based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, the expansion capacity information of the expanded reservoir at another location is obtained.

[0074] A further implementation method is that the information on the expansion of the storage capacity of the reservoir at a different location includes the location and storage capacity of the expanded reservoir; and the method for obtaining the information on the expansion of the storage capacity of the reservoir at a different location is:

[0075] S21: Based on the surface elevation information and water system distribution, select and optimize the site for expanding the reservoir to obtain the optimized location of the expanded reservoir;

[0076] S22: Based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model and the location of the expanded reservoir, the inflow and outflow flows are preset to obtain the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir corresponding to different water levels;

[0077] S23: obtaining a storage capacity curve of the expanded reservoir based on the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir corresponding to different water levels;

[0078] S24: Based on the location of the expanded reservoir and the storage capacity curve, obtain the storage capacity expansion information of the expanded reservoir at a different location.

[0079] S3: Based on the meteorological driving data of the area to be analyzed, the precipitation results of the area to be analyzed are obtained; the nested diagram of the area to be analyzed is as follows Figure 8 shown.

[0080] A further implementation method is that the method for obtaining the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed is:

[0081] S31: Obtain forecast results based on the numerical weather model and background field data of the area to be analyzed; Fig. 9 shown.

[0082] A further implementation method is that, in step S31, the method for obtaining the forecast result is:

[0083] S311: constructing a numerical weather model for the area to be analyzed in a multi-layer nested manner, and obtaining the total forecast duration and segment duration of the numerical weather model based on the historical precipitation of the area to be analyzed in the same period combined with the background field data of the nearby time;

[0084] S312: Prepare background field data of the area to be analyzed based on GFS data, start time and forecast duration;

[0085] S313: Drive the numerical weather model based on background field data, simulate the precipitation process, and obtain the early forecast results;

[0086] S314: When the forecast duration of the numerical weather model reaches the segment duration, the numerical weather model is driven after the background field data is updated to obtain the latest forecast result;

[0087] S315: Rolling fusion of previous forecast results and the latest forecast results to obtain the final forecast results. Fig.10 shown.

[0088] In this embodiment, combined with the local experience of multiple precipitation simulations, the background field data time node is advanced by 12 hours to meet the model preheating requirements. According to the calculation requirements of the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, the output precipitation time resolution is 1 hour, and the innermost grid contains the complete area to be analyzed and reaches a resolution of 3 km. The background field meteorological driving data is specifically the GFS data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research of the United States. After the simulation time exceeds 24 hours, the accuracy of the initial background field decreases. Therefore, if the forecast time is longer than 24 hours, the background field is updated and then the rolling simulation is performed to merge the updated precipitation process forecast information with the previous forecast results to ensure that the accuracy of the precipitation forecast is improved while the forecast period remains unchanged.

[0089] S32: extracting precipitation forecast data based on the forecast results;

[0090] S33: Use the step-by-step correction method to assimilate and calibrate the precipitation forecast data with the previous observation data to obtain the precipitation results after assimilation and calibration. Fig.10 shown.

[0091] In this embodiment, precipitation data is obtained from the numerical weather model result file (forecast result) through Python, and the precipitation center data and precipitation area are assimilated by the stepwise correction method. Specifically, the weight function takes the Cressman function, the number of iterations is 5, and the grid influence radius takes the minimum value of the horizontal and vertical grid numbers covered by the study basin. The Cressman function is as follows:

[0092] ,

[0093] In the formula, is the influence radius, Represents the relationship between station j and grid point distance.

[0094] S4: Input the precipitation results into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, calculate the runoff in the area to be analyzed, update the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir, and then calculate the inflow process of the existing reservoir, and calculate the water level change. In this embodiment, the precipitation situation in the area to be analyzed is judged according to the corrected precipitation data (precipitation results) and the spatially distributed process data is input into the Infoworks ICM model for runoff calculation. The present invention predicts the initial scheduling plan in advance based on the relatively accurate precipitation area and process distribution, which is different from the existing waiting for actual precipitation and flood observation information.

[0095] A further implementation method is that the runoff calculation includes: slope runoff calculation, river runoff calculation and flood evolution calculation; wherein,

[0096] The runoff generated by precipitation in the basin is calculated based on the Horton infiltration method, and the runoff confluence is calculated based on the motion wave method to obtain the calculation results of runoff or river inflow; the calculation formula of the Horton infiltration method is as follows:

[0097] ,

[0098] Where f is the actual infiltration rate; f0 is the initial infiltration rate; f c is the stable infiltration rate; k is the exponential parameter.

[0099] Based on the completely solved Saint-Venant equations, the river confluence calculation is performed to obtain the river confluence calculation results; the calculation formula of the Saint-Venant equations is as follows:

[0100] ,

[0101] ,

[0102] Where Q is the flow rate; A is the cross-sectional area; g is the gravitational acceleration; S f is the friction slope; S0 is the bottom slope; x is the length along the runoff direction; h is the water depth; t is the time.

[0103] Based on the weir flow formula, the two-way interaction between the overflow water volume of the river and the surface space along the course is calculated. Based on the two-way interaction results, the flood evolution process is simulated by the two-dimensional hydrodynamic method to obtain the flood evolution calculation results. The finite volume method is used to solve the two-dimensional shallow water equation as follows:

[0104] ,

[0105] ,

[0106] ,

[0107] Where h is the water depth; u and v are the velocity components in the x and y directions respectively; g is the gravitational acceleration; S 0x and S fx are the bed slope and resistance slope in the x direction respectively; S 0y and S fy They are the bed slope and resistance slope in the y direction respectively.

[0108] S5: Based on the information of reservoir expansion capacity at different locations and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir, establish the dispatching principles and construct the reservoir expansion planning and dispatching model;

[0109] A further implementation method is that in step S5, the scheduling principles include: flood prevention priority, maximization of economic benefits and minimization of energy losses;

[0110] Flood control priority: Based on weather forecast and runoff, calculate the difference between the total inflow and the available capacity of the existing reservoir; based on the difference, calculate the minimum water release during the flood season; specifically, the lower reservoir strictly implements flood control scheduling. The upper reservoir has a small capacity and is an auxiliary regulation. When conditions permit, pump water to the upper reservoir to further reduce the water release during the flood season in the lower reservoir.

[0111] Maximizing economic benefits: When the reservoir releases water to generate electricity to meet the needs of the grid, there is power generation benefit, and both the upper and lower reservoirs can release water to generate electricity; when the grid does not need it, the reservoir releases water according to the downstream ecological flow and irrigation production requirements, and generates surplus electricity to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir for energy storage; when the upper reservoir is full, the water is abandoned or no pumping and storage operation is performed;

[0112] Minimizing energy loss: Both the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir give priority to calculating natural water storage, electricity and water storage in the existing reservoir. Water from the existing reservoir is pumped to the expanded reservoir for storage based on the principle of maximizing economic benefits; among them, the existing reservoir is the lower reservoir and the expanded reservoir is the upper reservoir.

[0113] The way to minimize energy loss is:

[0114] Based on step S4, the actual precipitation results are input into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model to calculate runoff and obtain the total runoff and available reservoir capacity;

[0115] The catchment area is limited. When the available storage capacity of the expanded reservoir meets the preset storage capacity surplus conditions, and the power and water storage of the existing reservoir meet the economic benefit maximization, the water of the existing reservoir will be pumped to the expanded reservoir for energy storage;

[0116] At the end of the flood season, the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoirs are filled up gradually; during the non-flood season, water is released from the expanded reservoir to the existing reservoirs to generate electricity in turn according to the inflow, ecological base flow and downstream water consumption. The surplus electricity that does not meet the conditions for grid access is continuously pumped from the existing reservoirs and stored in the expanded reservoir.

[0117] A further implementation method is to construct a reservoir expansion planning and dispatching model by:

[0118] Based on the information of reservoir expansion at different locations and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir, the objective function and constraints are obtained; among which, the objective function is the maximization of economic benefits and the minimization of energy losses in the above-mentioned scheduling principles, and the constraints are the flood control optimization principles.

[0119] Based on the objective function and constraints, the genetic algorithm is used for iterative calculation to obtain the expansion planning and scheduling solution;

[0120] Specifically: the capacity expansion planning scheduling scheme is encoded by real number coding, and then a certain number of initial individuals are randomly generated to form an initial population. These individuals represent different capacity expansion planning scheduling schemes.

[0121] According to the objective function and constraints, the fitness value of each individual is calculated (the fitness value reflects the quality of the expansion planning scheduling scheme represented by the individual). According to the fitness value, roulette wheel selection is used to select excellent individuals from the current population as parents to generate the next generation.

[0122] Perform a crossover operation on the selected parent individuals to generate new offspring individuals by exchanging some genes. Perform a mutation operation on the offspring individuals to change the values ​​of some of their genes with a certain probability. The crossover and mutation operations ensure that the newly generated individuals still meet the constraints. Repeat the selection, crossover, and mutation operations to generate a new population and calculate the fitness value of the new population. Determine whether to stop the iteration based on the set number of iterations or convergence conditions.

[0123] In the iterative process of the genetic algorithm, a hill climbing algorithm is used to optimize the capacity expansion planning scheduling scheme to obtain the optimal decision sequence of the capacity expansion planning scheduling scheme under constraints; the embodiment of the present invention incorporates a hill climbing algorithm that can realize local search into the genetic algorithm, further optimizes excellent individuals, and improves the global search capability of the algorithm.

[0124] Specifically, from the new population obtained after genetic manipulation, individuals with higher fitness are selected as the starting point of the hill climbing algorithm. The hill climbing algorithm is applied to perform local search on the current individual, and the current solution is fine-tuned, focusing on optimizing the core parameters of reservoir operation, including dynamically adjusting the timing curve of the water release strategy, optimizing the allocation ratio of water storage in each period, etc. In each iteration, the fitness increment is calculated by establishing a mapping relationship between the objective function and the constraint conditions. If the fitness value of the new solution is higher than that of the current solution, the new solution is accepted as the current solution; otherwise, the current solution remains unchanged. The process is executed repeatedly until the neighborhood search termination criterion (such as the local extreme value judgment threshold or the maximum number of disturbances) is met.

[0125] The individuals that have been optimized through local search by the hill climbing algorithm are replaced back into the corresponding original individuals in the population to form a new population. The iterative calculation of the genetic algorithm is continued until the predetermined number of iterations is reached or other convergence conditions are met (such as no significant change in the average fitness value of the population for multiple generations). The individual with the highest fitness is selected from the final population as the optimal solution, that is, the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling plan is obtained.

[0126] In the search process of genetic algorithm and hill climbing algorithm, it is always ensured that the solution meets all constraints. For the solution that does not meet the constraints, the penalty function method or repair strategy is used to deal with it, and finally the optimal decision sequence is obtained.

[0127] Based on the optimal decision sequence, the fitness value of the expansion planning and scheduling scheme is calculated to complete the construction of the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model.

[0128] The optimal dispatching scheme finally output by the present invention can effectively coordinate the contradiction between power production demand and comprehensive utilization of water resources, and realize the optimal spatiotemporal configuration of water resources while ensuring the stable operation of the power grid.

[0129] S6: Based on the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model, complete the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling based on hydrological and meteorological information.

[0130] Embodiment 2

[0131] This embodiment takes the hydrodynamic simulation of the Minjiang River above Zipingpu under a heavy rain as an example, constructs a hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on InfoWorks ICM, calculates the storage capacity information of the reservoir expansion at different locations, calculates the water inflow of the basin based on the meteorological information, and uses the expanded reservoir to reduce the water level of the existing reservoir to the flood limit as soon as possible when the flood interval can be judged; reduces the amount of water discharged from the reservoir to protect the downstream landscape. When the water flow from Zipingpu to Dujiangyan is gentle, the expanded reservoir will release water to discharge flood water. Pumped storage scheduling can be performed in the non-flood season, and the excess electricity generated by the nighttime release is pumped to the expanded reservoir, and the water is released to the lower reservoir for power generation during the daytime peak period. The following is a detailed description of the application embodiment of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, including the following contents.

[0132] The main stream above the Zipingpu Reservoir dam site is 335 km long, accounting for 98% of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. The terrain is high in the northwest and low in the southeast, with high mountains and steep slopes, and many rapids. Figure 1 As shown in the figure, in order to study the flood control effect of reservoir pumped storage scheduling, this area was selected as the research area, the input digital elevation data was sorted, and a hydrological and hydrodynamic model was constructed based on the 30m precision DEM ground elevation data to calculate the flow generation and confluence of the basin and analyze the two-dimensional river hydrodynamics. The total area of ​​the study area from Weizhou to Zipingpu is 5080.68 km 2 .

[0133] like Figure 2 , Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the reservoir area is set as a 2D interval, and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir at the corresponding water level is calculated by given inflow and outflow flows, so as to obtain the storage capacity curve of the expanded reservoir.

[0134] like Figure 4 As shown in the figure, based on the constructed two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, a 2D interval is set in the study area, the boundary condition is set to free outflow, and 120776 2D interval grids are generated. The rainfall is input to obtain the inflow simulation results of the downstream reservoir.

[0135] After the simulation is completed, it is necessary to first ensure the rationality and reliability of the model and verify the inflow flow simulation results based on actual survey data. Select the results and compare them with the measured data (such as Figure 5As shown in the figure, the simulated inflow flow curve is basically consistent with the measured curve, with a peak flow error of 12.1% and an inflow error of 3.3%. This shows that the model can accurately reflect the inflow situation in the study area and has good rationality. At the same time, the water level changes before and after the calibration found that after the rainfall, the reservoir water level rose to 861.08m and the reservoir stored 697.8409 million m 3 The measured reservoir capacity at this water level is 733.013 million m 3 , with an error of 5.04%.

[0136] After the model rationality meets the requirements, this example conducts a preliminary study on the application scope and prospects of the invention, and the content and results are as follows:

[0137] Based on the obtained two-dimensional hydrological and hydrodynamic model, it can be applied to analyze the flood control effect after the reservoir expansion, specifically: intercepting and pumping water to the expanded reservoir, accelerating the reduction of the existing reservoir water level to the flood limit, and reducing the reservoir discharge pressure. The inflow curve of the existing reservoir is selected as a representative to analyze the flood control effect of the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling. Based on the model results, the impact of the reservoir expansion method on the discharge of the existing reservoir (such as Figure 6 As shown in the figure, the 20200815 flood was selected for simulation. The peak flow of the reservoir under this flood was 4506m 3 / s, the total flood volume is 1093.9572 million m 3 ; The peak flow rate under the condition of expanding the reservoir is reduced to 3894.45m 3 / s; the natural water storage capacity increased by 230.5491 million m after the expansion of the reservoir 3 .

[0138] In summary, expanding the reservoir capacity can reduce the inflow of the existing reservoir, reduce the peak of the inflow flow by 13.6%, reduce the amount of water discharged from the existing reservoir, assist in controlling the peak of water discharge, and stabilize the flooding range of the reservoir area (such as Figure 7 The downstream Dujiangyan and Chengdu Plain are well protected.

[0139] Embodiment 3

[0140] The present invention also provides a reservoir expansion planning and dispatching system based on hydrological and meteorological information, which is used to implement a reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method, including:

[0141] The hydrological and hydrodynamic model building module is used to build a hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on the surface elevation and water system information of the area to be analyzed.

[0142] The module for acquiring information on expansion of reservoir capacity at different locations is used to acquire information on expansion of reservoir capacity at different locations based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model.

[0143] The precipitation result acquisition module is used to obtain the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed based on the meteorological driving data of the area to be analyzed.

[0144] The runoff calculation module is used to input precipitation results into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, calculate the runoff in the area to be analyzed, and update the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir.

[0145] The scheduling model construction module is used to establish scheduling principles and build a reservoir expansion planning scheduling model based on the storage capacity expansion information of the reservoir at a different location and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir.

[0146] The reservoir expansion planning and scheduling module is used to complete the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling based on the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model and based on the hydrological and meteorological information.

[0147] The embodiments described above are only descriptions of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Without departing from the design spirit of the present invention, various modifications and improvements made to the technical solutions of the present invention by ordinary technicians in this field should all fall within the protection scope determined by the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1: Construct a hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on the surface elevation and water system information of the area to be analyzed; S2: Based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, obtaining the storage capacity expansion information of the reservoir at a different location; S3: based on the meteorological driving data of the area to be analyzed, obtaining the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed; S4: inputting the precipitation result into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, calculating the runoff generation and runoff of the area to be analyzed, and updating the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir; S5: Based on the information of reservoir expansion capacity at different locations and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir, establish the dispatching principles and construct the reservoir expansion planning and dispatching model; S6: Based on the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model, complete the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling based on hydrological and meteorological information.

2. The reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S2, the reservoir capacity expansion information at a different location includes the location and capacity of the expanded reservoir; the method for obtaining the reservoir capacity expansion information at a different location is: S21: Based on the surface elevation information and water system distribution, select and optimize the location of the expanded reservoir to obtain an optimized location of the expanded reservoir; S22: Based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model and the location of the expanded reservoir, preset the inflow and outflow flows to obtain the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir corresponding to different water levels; S23: obtaining a storage capacity curve of the expanded reservoir based on the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir corresponding to different water levels; S24: Based on the location of the expanded reservoir and the storage capacity curve, obtain the off-site expanded storage capacity information of the expanded reservoir.

3. The reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S3, the method for obtaining the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed is: S31: Obtain forecast results based on the numerical weather model and background field data of the area to be analyzed; S32: extracting precipitation forecast data based on the forecast result; S33: using a stepwise correction method to assimilate and calibrate the precipitation forecast data with previous observation data to obtain precipitation results after assimilation and calibration.

4. The reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information according to claim 3 is characterized in that: In step S31, the method for obtaining the forecast result is: S311: constructing a numerical weather model for the area to be analyzed in a multi-layer nested manner, and obtaining the total forecast duration and segment duration of the numerical weather model based on the historical precipitation of the area to be analyzed in the same period combined with the background field data of the nearby time; S312: Prepare background field data of the area to be analyzed based on GFS data, start time and forecast duration; S313: driving a numerical weather model based on the background field data, simulating a precipitation process, and obtaining an early forecast result; S314: When the forecast duration of the numerical weather model reaches the segment duration, the numerical weather model is driven after the background field data is updated to obtain the latest forecast result; S315: Rollingly merge the previous forecast results with the latest forecast results to obtain the final forecast results.

5. The reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S4, the runoff calculation includes: slope runoff calculation, river runoff calculation and flood evolution calculation; wherein, Calculate the runoff generated by precipitation in the basin based on the Horton infiltration method, calculate the runoff confluence based on the kinematic wave method, and obtain the calculation results of runoff or river inflow; Based on the completely solved Saint-Venant equations, river confluence calculation is performed to obtain the river confluence calculation results; The two-way interaction between the overflow water volume of the river and the surface space along the river is calculated based on the weir flow formula. Based on the two-way interaction results, the flood evolution process is simulated by the two-dimensional hydrodynamic method to obtain the flood evolution calculation results.

6. The reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S5, the scheduling principles include: flood prevention priority, maximization of economic benefits and minimization of energy losses; Flood control priority: Calculate the difference between the total inflow and the available capacity of existing reservoirs based on weather forecasts and runoff; calculate the minimum water release during the flood season based on the difference; Maximizing economic benefits: When the reservoir releases water to generate electricity to meet the needs of the grid, there is power generation benefit, and both the upper and lower reservoirs can release water to generate electricity; when the grid does not need it, the reservoir releases water according to the downstream ecological flow and irrigation production requirements, and generates surplus electricity to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir for energy storage; when the upper reservoir is full, the water is abandoned or no pumping and storage operation is performed; Minimizing energy loss: Both the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir give priority to calculating natural water storage, electricity and water storage in the existing reservoir. Water from the existing reservoir is pumped to the expanded reservoir for storage based on the principle of maximizing economic benefits; among them, the existing reservoir is the lower reservoir and the expanded reservoir is the upper reservoir.

7. The reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method based on hydrological and meteorological information according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The method to minimize the energy loss is: Based on step S4, the actual precipitation result is input into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model to calculate the runoff and obtain the total runoff and available reservoir capacity; When the available storage capacity of the expanded reservoir meets the preset storage capacity surplus conditions, and the power and water storage of the existing reservoir meet the economic benefit maximization, the water of the existing reservoir will be pumped to the expanded reservoir for energy storage; At the end of the flood season, the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoirs are filled up gradually; during the non-flood season, water is released from the expanded reservoir to the existing reservoirs to generate electricity in turn according to the inflow, ecological base flow and downstream water consumption. The surplus electricity that does not meet the conditions for grid access is continuously pumped from the existing reservoirs and stored in the expanded reservoir.

8. A reservoir expansion planning and dispatching system based on hydrological and meteorological information, used to implement the reservoir expansion planning and dispatching method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: include: The hydrological and hydrodynamic model building module is used to build a hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on the surface elevation and water system information of the area to be analyzed; A reservoir capacity expansion information acquisition module is used to obtain the reservoir capacity expansion information at a different location based on the hydrological and hydrodynamic model; A precipitation result acquisition module is used to obtain the precipitation result of the area to be analyzed based on the meteorological driving data of the area to be analyzed; A runoff calculation module is used to input the precipitation results into the hydrological and hydrodynamic model, perform runoff calculations in the area to be analyzed, and update the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir; The scheduling model building module is used to establish scheduling principles and build a scheduling model for reservoir expansion planning based on the information of reservoir expansion capacity at different locations and the storage capacity of the expanded reservoir and the existing reservoir; The reservoir expansion planning and scheduling module is used to complete the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling based on the hydrological and meteorological information based on the reservoir expansion planning and scheduling model.

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