Comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on double-factor theory

Abstract

The invention relates to a comprehensive energy service potential assessment method based on a double-factor theory. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, applying the double-factor theory to comprehensive energy service user potential assessment; step 2, carrying out dimensionless processing on the interval number; 3, health-care factors: in the comprehensive energy service, the health-care requirements of the user are mainly embodied as basic requirements for the comprehensive energy service, and if the basic requirements cannot be met, the user is dissatisfactory; the value-added demand of the user for the comprehensive energy service is identified and can be described from the perspective of the cooperation relationship between the user and the service provider, and the comprehensive energy service excitation demand is the demand for keeping the good cooperation relationship between the user and the service provider; 5, a comprehensive energy service potential analysis and quantification method is adopted; the method has the advantages that a double-factor theory is adopted, comprehensive energy service health-care factors and incentive factors of the user are considered, and the comprehensive energy service potential of the user is effectively distinguished.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of integrated energy services, and in particular relates to an integrated energy service potential evaluation method based on a dual-factor theory. Background Art

[0002] The integrated energy service market is huge and has broad development prospects. It has attracted widespread attention and discussion in recent years. Therefore, the key to achieving the scale development of integrated energy services is to build mature market promotion and operation ceiling technologies. The demand for integrated energy services is not the same as energy demand. The demand for integrated energy services also needs to be analyzed in combination with economic and environmental assessments, market size analysis, transaction and game methods and experience. Evaluating the demand for integrated energy services is conducive to integrated energy service companies accurately grasping the energy characteristics of users and providing users with accurate integrated energy services based on the energy characteristics. This can not only improve service efficiency, but also save resources and reduce costs. As a new industry, integrated energy services have multiple entities, and the entities dare not rashly try new industries. It is necessary to clarify their market potential to avoid investment failures due to insufficient understanding of potential. As the integrated energy market becomes increasingly complex, energy service providers have inaccurately positioned the potential of various services, resulting in a relatively slow application and promotion of various integrated energy service business models. As a result, service providers have a wrong perception that the business model is inaccurate or the service potential is poor, which greatly affects the market potential and effectiveness of the services. The existing integrated energy service demand assessment mainly considers user-side demand characteristics such as user energy demand and integrated energy service utility value. It overemphasizes considerations from the perspective of the service recipient, fails to fully reflect the service provider's attention to integrated energy services, and is unable to clarify the market potential of integrated energy services, which is not conducive to promoting differentiated integrated energy services. Therefore, it is very necessary to provide an integrated energy service potential assessment method based on the two-factor theory that adopts the two-factor theory, considers the user's integrated energy service health factors and incentive factors, and effectively distinguishes the user's integrated energy service potential. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art and to provide a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the two-factor theory, which adopts the two-factor theory, considers the user's comprehensive energy service hygiene factors and incentive factors, and effectively distinguishes the user's comprehensive energy service potential.

[0004] The object of the present invention is achieved by: a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on a dual-factor theory, the method comprising the following steps:

[0005] Step 1: Application of two-factor theory in the evaluation of potential of integrated energy service users: Two-factor theory divides the factors related to satisfaction into two categories: hygiene factors and motivational factors. Hygiene factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and they will be dissatisfied when their needs are not met. Motivational factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and they will not be dissatisfied when their needs are not met.

[0006] Step 2: Dimensionless processing of interval numbers: From the perspective of interval numbers, the interval range of uncertainty data is considered as information that is easier to obtain, and through statistical calculations, it is easier to obtain information such as the mean and standard deviation of the data. No assumptions and too much prior knowledge are required. Interval numbers can be used in combination with information such as the mean and standard deviation to accurately represent uncertainty data, avoiding the subjectivity of using assumed probability density functions or probability distribution functions to represent uncertainty data;

[0007] Step 3: Health factors: In integrated energy services, users’ health needs are mainly reflected in their basic needs for integrated energy services. If these basic needs cannot be met, it will lead to user dissatisfaction;

[0008] Step 4: Incentive factors: Identify the value-added needs of users for integrated energy services, which can be characterized from the perspective of the cooperative relationship between users and service providers. The incentive demand for integrated energy services is the need for users to maintain a good cooperative relationship with service providers;

[0009] Step 5: Quantitative method for comprehensive energy service potential analysis: The comprehensive energy service potential is quantified by multiple indicators. In order to enable energy suppliers and users to better understand the large amount of numerical information, the indicator values ​​are refined to reflect comprehensive information with a smaller amount of data, and a semantic result is obtained to describe the relevant characteristics.

[0010] The health care factor in step 3 is specifically: using the comprehensive energy service demand factor TP and the comprehensive energy service price SP as the comprehensive energy service health care demand factor.

[0011] The comprehensive energy service price SP in step 3 is as follows: the rationality of service price is an important part of health care demand. Too high price will increase the cost burden of users. Users cannot pay high prices due to limited affordability, which affects the purchase and use of services, resulting in the inability to meet health care needs. Therefore, the service price SP can be used as one of the evaluation indicators of health care needs. SP evaluates whether the price is reasonable by calculating the matching degree between the service price and the user's affordable price, thereby reflecting whether the health care needs are met. First, the user's affordable price range is determined according to the user's income level [P min ,Pmax ], define the comprehensive energy service price P0, and calculate the comprehensive energy service price index SP: Where P m is the median of the price range; R is the half-width of the range; S max is the maximum matching degree among all users; 0≤SP≤1, the larger the SP, the more reasonable the service price.

[0012] The comprehensive energy service demand factor TP in step 3 is specifically as follows: the comprehensive energy service demand degree is quantified through the entropy weight TOPSIS method to reflect the user's energy consumption structure and utility value demand degree for comprehensive energy services. In the potential analysis, this factor is analyzed as a health factor. The utility value is used as the maximum utility value in the comprehensive energy service demand. However, in the potential analysis, when facing different service plans, the comprehensive potential of each user is sought.

[0013] The incentive factors in step 4 are specifically: quantifying the degree of cooperative trust between the user and the service provider from the user's credit record, credit behavior, and credit potential, so as to characterize the user's incentive demand for integrated energy services, and also to characterize whether the user is worthy of the integrated energy service provider to provide relevant services to him.

[0014] The credit record in step 4 is specifically: the user's bank loan repayment rate is the most basic credit reflection of the user when conducting business activities. It is expressed as the ratio of the loan principal and interest actually paid by the user before the bank loan expires to the loan principal and interest that should be paid. It describes the credit record of the user's previous business activities and reflects the user's punctuality in fulfilling the agreement: Where, L paid Indicates the actual payment of loan principal and interest; L due Indicates the principal and interest of the loan to be paid; the larger the value of act1, the better the user's credit record, the smaller the risk of default, and the easier it is to gain the favor of energy suppliers and establish a solid cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship.

[0015] The credit behavior in step 4 is specifically as follows: the annual energy cost payment ratio is an indicator that directly reflects the user's credit behavior towards the energy service provider. This indicator is the ratio of the actual energy cost paid by the user within the contract period to the energy cost payable each year over many years. It reflects the most basic credit behavior of the user in the cooperative relationship with the energy service provider and directly affects the intimacy of the relationship between the two parties: In the formula, n represents the nth year of statistics; T represents the Tth year among n years; bill paid.T Indicates the actual amount of energy costs paid within the contract period in the Tth year; bill due.TIndicates the amount of energy charges payable in the Tth year; the larger the value, the better the user's payment credit, and the easier it is to obtain a good cooperative relationship with the energy service provider.

[0016] The credit potential in step 4 is specifically as follows: Relative net sales margin is an indirect indicator of the user's credit potential, expressed as the ratio of the user's annual net sales margin to the maximum value of the corresponding industry, reflecting the user's income capacity: In the formula, NPM represents the user's annual net sales margin; NPM max It indicates the maximum value of the corresponding indicator of the user's corresponding industry; the larger the value is, the better the user's economic situation is in the industry, the more capable the user is to fulfill the contract on time, and the more hope there is to establish a good cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship with the energy service provider.

[0017] The quantitative method for comprehensive energy service potential analysis in step 5 is specifically as follows: introducing symbolic data based on the entropy weight method, and converting numerical information into the frequency of occurrence to avoid the problem of meaningless indicators caused by missing data, and realize the grading and classification of data to achieve the calculation purpose; specifically including the following steps:

[0018] Step 5.1: Normalize the n evaluation indicators (represented by set N) of m users (represented by set M) to establish a standardized evaluation matrix A: In the formula, a ij represents the jth normalized index of the i-th user;

[0019] Step 5.2: Establish the evaluation level and convert the user evaluation matrix into a symbolic data evaluation matrix: Let B = {g1, g2, ..., g e} represents the evaluation level, where g i For interval symbol data, the symbol data evaluation matrix C is obtained: In the formula, represents the symbolic data evaluation value of the i-th user on the j-th indicator;

[0020] Step 5.3: Calculate the evaluation level frequency d of the indicator ij and evaluation rate p i for: Where card(A) is the number of elements in set A; is the i-th indicator, and its evaluation value is g i The user set of M i is the set of users whose evaluation values ​​of the i-th indicator are not missing;

[0021] Step 5.4: Construct the indicator evaluation level frequency matrix:

[0022] Step 5.5: Calculate the expected frequency μ of the evaluation level of the i-th indicator i , standard deviation σ i And the indicator weight ω i :

[0023] Step 5.6: Based on this, the comprehensive index of the user's health care needs bas and the comprehensive index of the incentive needs act can be calculated respectively: In the formula, the larger the value of bas,act is, the greater the user's demand for this indicator is.

[0024] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention is a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory. During use, the present invention constructs a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation index system, takes energy demand as the core orientation, and through the dual-factor theory, considers the user's comprehensive energy service health factors and incentive factors, proposes a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method, effectively distinguishes the user's comprehensive energy service potential, helps suppliers better understand user needs and market potential, provides guidance for energy suppliers and users to select relevant energy service plans in both directions, and promotes the development of the comprehensive energy service field; the present invention can analyze the complex energy consumption behaviors of multiple users, clarify the utility value of comprehensive energy services, and tap the potential of comprehensive energy services, provide support for the formulation of preferential policies for comprehensive energy services and market development, help promote the process of energy reform, and contribute to the "dual carbon" goal; the present invention has the advantages of adopting the dual-factor theory, considering the user's comprehensive energy service health factors and incentive factors, and effectively distinguishing the user's comprehensive energy service potential. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention.

[0026] Figure 2 It is a diagram of the evaluation process of the present invention.

[0027] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the coordinate system for identifying the comprehensive energy service potential of the present invention.

[0028] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the comprehensive energy service potential identification results of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0030] Example 1

[0031] like Figure 1-4 As shown, a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory includes the following steps:

[0032] Step 1: Application of two-factor theory in the evaluation of potential of integrated energy service users: Two-factor theory divides the factors related to satisfaction into two categories: hygiene factors and motivational factors. Hygiene factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and they will be dissatisfied when their needs are not met. Motivational factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and they will not be dissatisfied when their needs are not met.

[0033] Step 2: Dimensionless processing of interval numbers: From the perspective of interval numbers, the interval range of uncertainty data is considered as information that is easier to obtain, and through statistical calculations, it is easier to obtain information such as the mean and standard deviation of the data. No assumptions and too much prior knowledge are required. Interval numbers can be used in combination with information such as the mean and standard deviation to accurately represent uncertainty data, avoiding the subjectivity of using assumed probability density functions or probability distribution functions to represent uncertainty data;

[0034] Step 3: Health factors: In integrated energy services, users’ health needs are mainly reflected in their basic needs for integrated energy services. If these basic needs cannot be met, it will lead to user dissatisfaction;

[0035] Step 4: Incentive factors: Identify the value-added needs of users for integrated energy services, which can be characterized from the perspective of the cooperative relationship between users and service providers. The incentive demand for integrated energy services is the need for users to maintain a good cooperative relationship with service providers;

[0036] Step 5: Quantitative method for comprehensive energy service potential analysis: The comprehensive energy service potential is quantified by multiple indicators. In order to enable energy suppliers and users to better understand the large amount of numerical information, the indicator values ​​are refined to reflect comprehensive information with a smaller amount of data, and a semantic result is obtained to describe the relevant characteristics.

[0037] In this embodiment, when there is a problem with energy supply, users may suffer production failures or even shutdowns due to unstable energy supply, and suffer certain economic losses. Users often blame the energy service provider for such problems, believing that it is their obligation to ensure the stability of energy supply when providing services. Even if the energy service provider takes measures to improve service quality, users may not be satisfied with such a response; but if the service provider does not take any action to improve service quality, users will definitely feel dissatisfied; therefore, the present invention defines the user's demand for satisfactory comprehensive energy services as health care needs, and describes the user's health care needs from aspects such as energy supply stability and price rationality; on the other hand, users achieve efficient production through comprehensive energy services and generate production and operation profits, which is a reflection of the good cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship between users and comprehensive energy service providers; the present invention defines the need for users to maintain a good cooperative relationship with service providers as the incentive demand for comprehensive energy services; if this need is met, users will increasingly trust the service provider and be willing to accept the services provided by it; based on the user's credit level, the incentive demand is indirectly described, including indicators such as bank loan repayment rate, annual energy fee payment ratio and relative net profit margin.

[0038] In this embodiment, the present invention is based on the two-factor theory, proposes the concepts of users' health care needs for integrated energy services and service providers' incentive needs for integrated energy services, and establishes a corresponding coordinate system to characterize the degree of users' demand for integrated energy services and the willingness of service providers to provide integrated energy services to users; finally, a coordinate identification system is established to convert quantitative results into qualitative results according to the different values ​​of health care needs and incentive needs indicators, which can facilitate integrated energy service providers to clearly identify the application potential of integrated energy services for different users, and screen target users and integrated energy services that match their potential.

[0039] The present invention is a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory. During use, the present invention constructs a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation index system, takes energy demand as the core orientation, and through the dual-factor theory, considers the user's comprehensive energy service health factors and incentive factors, proposes a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method, effectively distinguishes the user's comprehensive energy service potential, helps suppliers better understand user needs and market potential, provides guidance for energy suppliers and users to select relevant energy service solutions in both directions, and promotes the development of the comprehensive energy service field; the present invention can analyze the complex energy consumption behaviors of multiple users, clarify the utility value of comprehensive energy services, and tap the potential of comprehensive energy services, provide support for the formulation of preferential policies for comprehensive energy services and market development, help promote the process of energy reform, and contribute to the "dual carbon" goal; the present invention has the advantages of adopting the dual-factor theory, considering the user's comprehensive energy service health factors and incentive factors, and effectively distinguishing the user's comprehensive energy service potential.

[0040] Example 2

[0041] like Figure 1-4 As shown, a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory includes the following steps:

[0042] Step 1: Application of two-factor theory in the evaluation of the potential of integrated energy service users: The core idea of ​​the two-factor theory is the two-dimensional cognition of satisfaction, that is, satisfaction and dissatisfaction do not coexist in a single continuum. The opposite of satisfaction is not dissatisfaction, but the absence of satisfaction; the opposite of dissatisfaction is not satisfaction, but the absence of dissatisfaction. The two-factor theory divides the factors related to satisfaction into two categories: hygiene factors and motivational factors. Hygiene factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and when their needs cannot be met, they will be dissatisfied due to the lack of such factors. Motivational factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and when their needs cannot be met, they will not be dissatisfied due to the lack of such factors.

[0043] Step 2: Dimensionless processing of interval numbers: At present, energy interconnection is still in its initial stage, and the coverage of measurement devices for multidimensional energy data is insufficient. The sampling rate and upload rate of measurement devices are far from meeting the requirements of data analysis. Therefore, there is a lack of prior data support in the evaluation of service potential. The existing data has the defects of coarse granularity and uncertainty in the data range. However, in actual engineering, when evaluating service potential, service providers hope that the accuracy of input data is as high as possible. Therefore, from the perspective of interval numbers, the present invention takes the interval range of uncertainty data as information that is easier to obtain, and through statistical calculations, it is easier to obtain information such as the mean and standard deviation of the data. No assumptions and too much prior knowledge are required. Interval numbers can be used in combination with information such as the mean and standard deviation to accurately represent uncertainty data, avoiding the subjectivity of using assumed probability density functions or probability distribution functions to represent uncertainty data;

[0044] Step 3: Health factors: In integrated energy services, users’ health needs are mainly reflected in their basic needs for integrated energy services. If these basic needs cannot be met, it will lead to user dissatisfaction;

[0045] Step 4: Incentive factors: Identify the value-added demand of users for integrated energy services, which can be characterized from the perspective of the cooperative relationship between users and service providers. The incentive demand for integrated energy services is the demand for users to maintain a good cooperative relationship with service providers. When users and integrated energy service providers reach a good cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship, the users will have a greater demand for integrated energy services and a desire to purchase them.

[0046] Step 5: Quantitative method for comprehensive energy service potential analysis: The comprehensive energy service potential is quantified by multiple indicators. In order to enable energy suppliers and users to better understand the large amount of numerical information, the indicator values ​​are refined to reflect comprehensive information with a smaller amount of data, and a semantic result is obtained to describe the relevant characteristics.

[0047] The health care factor in step 3 is specifically: using the comprehensive energy service demand factor TP and the comprehensive energy service price SP as the comprehensive energy service health care demand factor.

[0048] The comprehensive energy service price SP in step 3 is as follows: the rationality of service price is an important part of health care demand. Too high price will increase the cost burden of users. Users cannot pay high prices due to limited affordability, which affects the purchase and use of services, resulting in the inability to meet health care needs. Therefore, the service price SP can be used as one of the evaluation indicators of health care needs. SP evaluates whether the price is reasonable by calculating the matching degree between the service price and the user's affordable price, thereby reflecting whether the health care needs are met. First, the user's affordable price range is determined according to the user's income level [P min ,P max ], define the comprehensive energy service price P0, and calculate the comprehensive energy service price index SP: Where P m is the median of the price range; R is the half-width of the range; S max is the maximum matching degree among all users; 0≤SP≤1, the larger the SP, the more reasonable the service price.

[0049] The comprehensive energy service demand factor TP in step 3 is specifically as follows: the comprehensive energy service demand degree is quantified through the entropy weight TOPSIS method to reflect the user's energy consumption structure and utility value demand degree for comprehensive energy services. In the potential analysis, this factor is analyzed as a health factor. The utility value is used as the maximum utility value in the comprehensive energy service demand. However, in the potential analysis, when facing different service plans, the comprehensive potential of each user is sought.

[0050] The incentive factors in step 4 are specifically: quantifying the degree of cooperative trust between the user and the service provider from the user's credit record, credit behavior, and credit potential, so as to characterize the user's incentive demand for integrated energy services, and also to characterize whether the user is worthy of the integrated energy service provider to provide relevant services to him.

[0051] The credit record in step 4 is specifically: the user's bank loan repayment rate is the most basic credit reflection of the user when conducting business activities. It is expressed as the ratio of the loan principal and interest actually paid by the user before the bank loan expires to the loan principal and interest that should be paid. It describes the credit record of the user's previous business activities and reflects the user's punctuality in fulfilling the agreement: Where, L paid Indicates the actual payment of loan principal and interest; L due Indicates the principal and interest of the loan to be paid; the larger the value of act1, the better the user's credit record, the smaller the risk of default, and the easier it is to gain the favor of energy suppliers and establish a solid cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship.

[0052] The credit behavior in step 4 is specifically as follows: the annual energy cost payment ratio is an indicator that directly reflects the user's credit behavior towards the energy service provider. This indicator is the ratio of the actual energy cost paid by the user within the contract period to the energy cost payable each year over many years. It reflects the most basic credit behavior of the user in the cooperative relationship with the energy service provider and directly affects the intimacy of the relationship between the two parties: In the formula, n represents the nth year of statistics; T represents the Tth year among n years; bill paid.T Indicates the actual amount of energy costs paid within the contract period in the Tth year; bill due.T Indicates the amount of energy charges payable in the Tth year; the larger the value, the better the user's payment credit, and the easier it is to obtain a good cooperative relationship with the energy service provider.

[0053] The credit potential in step 4 is specifically as follows: Relative net sales margin is an indirect indicator of the user's credit potential, expressed as the ratio of the user's annual net sales margin to the maximum value of the corresponding industry, reflecting the user's income capacity: In the formula, NPM represents the user's annual net sales margin; NPM max It indicates the maximum value of the corresponding indicator of the user's corresponding industry; the larger the value is, the better the user's economic situation is in the industry, the more capable the user is to fulfill the contract on time, and the more hope there is to establish a good cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship with the energy service provider.

[0054] The quantitative method for comprehensive energy service potential analysis in step 5 is specifically as follows: introducing symbolic data based on the entropy weight method, and converting numerical information into the frequency of occurrence to avoid the problem of meaningless indicators caused by missing data, and realize the grading and classification of data to achieve the calculation purpose; specifically including the following steps:

[0055] Step 5.1: Normalize the n evaluation indicators (represented by set N) of m users (represented by set M) to establish a standardized evaluation matrix A: In the formula, a ij represents the jth normalized index of the i-th user;

[0056] Step 5.2: Establish the evaluation level and convert the user evaluation matrix into a symbolic data evaluation matrix: Let B = {g1, g2, ..., g e} represents the evaluation level, where g i For interval symbol data, generally take e = 5, B = {[0, 0.2], (0.2, 0.4], (0.4, 0.6], (0.6, 0.8], (0.8, 1]}, and get the symbol data evaluation matrix C: In the formula, represents the symbolic data evaluation value of the i-th user on the j-th indicator;

[0057] Step 5.3: Calculate the evaluation level frequency d of the indicator ij and evaluation rate p i for: Where card(A) is the number of elements in set A; is the i-th indicator, and its evaluation value is g i The user set of M i is the set of users whose evaluation values ​​of the i-th indicator are not missing;

[0058] Step 5.4: Construct the indicator evaluation level frequency matrix:

[0059] Step 5.5: Calculate the expected frequency μ of the evaluation level of the i-th indicator i , standard deviation σ i And the indicator weight ω i :

[0060] Step 5.6: Based on this, the comprehensive index of the user's health care needs bas and the comprehensive index of the incentive needs act can be calculated respectively: In the formula, the larger the value of bas,act is, the greater the user's demand for this indicator is.

[0061] In this embodiment, although the comprehensive energy service potential is well quantified in a numerical way, the characteristics of the described comprehensive energy service potential cannot be fully recognized by industry personnel and users, and the calculated comprehensive index is not sufficient to intuitively depict the comprehensive energy service potential. The present invention uses the health care index as the horizontal coordinate and the incentive index as the vertical coordinate to establish a comprehensive energy service potential identification coordinate system, so as to qualitatively identify the comprehensive energy service potential, such as Figure 3 As shown;

[0062] In this method, Figure 3The user service potential domain in is divided into four parts, and potential classification points are defined:

[0063] Region 1: The energy consumption of users in this region is good and they are highly dependent users. Although they do not need comprehensive energy services, they maintain a good reciprocal relationship with energy suppliers and are users that energy suppliers are willing to provide services to.

[0064] Region 2: Users in this region have high potential for integrated energy services and are highly dependent on them. They have strong demand for integrated energy services and are worthy of energy suppliers to provide them with integrated energy services, without any operating risks.

[0065] Region 3: Users in this region have no urgent need for integrated energy services and are low-dependency users. Users have no need to purchase integrated energy services, and energy suppliers are unwilling to provide them with integrated energy services.

[0066] Region 4: Users in this region have an urgent need for comprehensive energy services, but their credit rating is low, and energy suppliers are not very willing to provide services;

[0067] Demand classification point: the critical point at which energy suppliers make decisions to provide comprehensive energy services to users. It is determined by the user's health-motivation factor index value. This classification point is affected by the user's local energy supply situation. In areas where the energy industry is highly competitive and there are more industrial users, comprehensive energy services will have a larger market and energy suppliers will have more service objects. At this moment, the demand classification point will be closer to the origin to include more users into area two; otherwise, it will deviate from the origin.

[0068] In this embodiment, example analysis: taking the first six large industrial users I1~I6 as examples, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified. According to the above chapters and the actual production situation of users, the user-related data are summarized as shown in Tables 1 and 2;

[0069] Table 1 User data

[0070] <![CDATA[I1]]> <![CDATA[I2]]> <![CDATA[I3]]> <![CDATA[I4]]> <![CDATA[I5]]> <![CDATA[I6]]> SP 0.133 0.126 0.145 0.087 0.142 0.115 TP / / / / / / <![CDATA[act1]]> 70％ 89％ 100％ 81％ 70％ 76％ <![CDATA[act2]]> 96.3％ 98.7％ 99.2％ 99.0％ 97.1％ 98.3％ <![CDATA[act3]]> 0.70 0.55 0.95 0.69 0.45 0.60

[0071] Table 2 TP values ​​of each user facing different solutions

[0072] <![CDATA[I1]]> <![CDATA[I2]]> <![CDATA[I3]]> <![CDATA[I4]]> <![CDATA[I5]]> <![CDATA[I6]]> Solution 1 0.2956 0.2763 0.0084 0.2027 0.1135 0.1036 Solution 2 0.2993 0.2763 0.0257 0.1958 0.1049 0.0979 Option 3 0.2916 0.2889 0.0093 0.1883 0.1226 0.0993 Option 4 0.2841 0.3412 0.0079 0.1910 0.0769 0.0989

[0073] The user's health care index and motivation index for each scheme are calculated using the symbolic data method, as shown in Table 3;

[0074] Table 3 Demand indicators

[0075]

[0076] From Table 3, it is evaluated that the health care demand index of user I4 is low, but the incentive demand index is high. It has low power quality demand, but because of good credit, the power company is willing to provide it with high-quality paid power services;

[0077] The coordinate system for identifying the potential of comprehensive energy services is established with the user's health care needs as the horizontal axis and the incentive needs as the vertical axis. According to the situation of the six users, the demand classification point is set to (0.2, 0.75). The two-dimensional demand indicators of the six users are as follows: Figure 4 As shown;

[0078] like Figure 4 , the potential evaluation results of user I5 for each plan are all in area three, and he does not need integrated energy services; the results of users I3, I4, and I6 for each plan are all in area one. Such users do not have much demand for integrated energy services, but energy suppliers are willing to provide them with integrated energy services, and this user has the potential for paid services; the evaluation results of users I1 and I2 for each plan are all in area two. Such users are in urgent need of integrated energy services and have good credit. Energy suppliers should provide paid services to this user. Among them, plan 4 in I2 is more prominent, indicating that this plan has a significantly higher utility for the integrated energy service of this user among the four plans, which is the same as the analysis result; through a comprehensive analysis of the potential of the six users, I2 is the user with the highest potential for integrated energy services, and I5 has the lowest service potential.

[0079] The present invention is a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory. In use, the present invention constructs a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation index system, takes energy demand as the core orientation, considers the user's comprehensive energy service health factors and incentive factors through the dual-factor theory, proposes a comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method, effectively distinguishes the user's comprehensive energy service potential, helps suppliers better understand user needs and market potential, provides guidance for energy suppliers and users to two-way select relevant energy service solutions, and promotes the development of the comprehensive energy service field; the present invention can analyze the complex energy use behavior of multiple users, clarify the utility value of comprehensive energy services, tap the potential of comprehensive energy services, provide support for the formulation of preferential policies for comprehensive energy services and market development, help promote the process of energy reform, and help the "dual carbon" goal; the present invention adopts the dual-factor theory to address the problem of unclear potential, proposes relevant health factors and incentive factors to evaluate the user's comprehensive energy service potential, and establishes a coordinate system to identify the user's service potential through example analysis of 6 users, thereby verifying the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method; the present invention has the advantages of adopting the dual-factor theory, considering the user's comprehensive energy service health factors and incentive factors, and effectively distinguishing the user's comprehensive energy service potential.

Claims

1. A comprehensive energy service potential assessment method based on the dual-factor theory, characterized by: The method comprises the following steps: Step 1: Application of two-factor theory in the evaluation of potential of integrated energy service users: Two-factor theory divides the factors related to satisfaction into two categories: hygiene factors and motivational factors. Hygiene factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and they will be dissatisfied when their needs are not met. Motivational factors refer to factors that make people feel satisfied when their needs are met, and they will not be dissatisfied when their needs are not met. Step 2: Dimensionless processing of interval numbers: From the perspective of interval numbers, the interval range of uncertainty data is considered as information that is easier to obtain, and through statistical calculations, it is easier to obtain information such as the mean and standard deviation of the data. No assumptions and too much prior knowledge are required. Interval numbers can be used in combination with information such as the mean and standard deviation to accurately represent uncertainty data, avoiding the subjectivity of using assumed probability density functions or probability distribution functions to represent uncertainty data; Step 3: Health factors: In integrated energy services, users’ health needs are mainly reflected in their basic needs for integrated energy services. If these basic needs cannot be met, it will lead to user dissatisfaction; Step 4: Incentive factors: Identify the value-added needs of users for integrated energy services, which can be characterized from the perspective of the cooperative relationship between users and service providers. The incentive demand for integrated energy services is the need for users to maintain a good cooperative relationship with service providers; Step 5: Quantitative method for comprehensive energy service potential analysis: The comprehensive energy service potential is quantified by multiple indicators. In order to enable energy suppliers and users to better understand the large amount of numerical information, the indicator values ​​are refined to reflect comprehensive information with a smaller amount of data, and a semantic result is obtained to describe the relevant characteristics.

2. The comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 1 is characterized by: The health care factor in step 3 is specifically: using the comprehensive energy service demand factor TP and the comprehensive energy service price SP as the comprehensive energy service health care demand factor.

3. The comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 2 is characterized by: The comprehensive energy service price SP in step 3 is as follows: the rationality of service price is an important part of health care demand. Too high price will increase the cost burden of users. Users cannot pay high prices due to limited affordability, which affects the purchase and use of services, resulting in the inability to meet health care needs. Therefore, the service price SP can be used as one of the evaluation indicators of health care needs. SP evaluates whether the price is reasonable by calculating the matching degree between the service price and the user's affordable price, thereby reflecting whether the health care needs are met. First, the user's affordable price range is determined according to the user's income level [P min ,P max ], define the comprehensive energy service price P0, and calculate the comprehensive energy service price index SP: Where P m is the median of the price range; R is the half-width of the range; S max is the maximum matching degree among all users; 0≤SP≤1, the larger the SP, the more reasonable the service price.

4. The comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 2 is characterized by: The comprehensive energy service demand factor TP in step 3 is specifically as follows: the comprehensive energy service demand degree is quantified through the entropy weight TOPSIS method to reflect the user's energy consumption structure and utility value demand degree for comprehensive energy services. In the potential analysis, this factor is analyzed as a health factor. The utility value is used as the maximum utility value in the comprehensive energy service demand. However, in the potential analysis, when facing different service plans, the comprehensive potential of each user is sought.

5. The comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 1 is characterized by: The incentive factors in step 4 are specifically: quantifying the degree of cooperative trust between the user and the service provider from the user's credit record, credit behavior, and credit potential, so as to characterize the user's incentive demand for integrated energy services, and also to characterize whether the user is worthy of the integrated energy service provider to provide relevant services to him.

6. The comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 5 is characterized by: The credit record in step 4 is specifically: the user's bank loan repayment rate is the most basic credit reflection of the user when conducting business activities. It is expressed as the ratio of the loan principal and interest actually paid by the user before the bank loan expires to the loan principal and interest that should be paid. It describes the credit record of the user's previous business activities and reflects the user's punctuality in fulfilling the agreement: Where, L paid Indicates the actual payment of loan principal and interest; L due Indicates the principal and interest of the loan to be paid; the larger the value of act1, the better the user's credit record, the smaller the risk of default, and the easier it is to gain the favor of energy suppliers and establish a solid cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship.

7. The comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 5 is characterized by: The credit behavior in step 4 is specifically as follows: the annual energy cost payment ratio is an indicator that directly reflects the user's credit behavior towards the energy service provider. This indicator is the ratio of the actual energy cost paid by the user within the contract period to the energy cost payable each year over many years. It reflects the most basic credit behavior of the user in the cooperative relationship with the energy service provider and directly affects the intimacy of the relationship between the two parties: In the formula, n represents the statistical year; T represents the Tth year among n years; bill paid.T It indicates the amount of energy cost actually paid in the Tth year within the time specified in the contract; bill due.T Indicates the amount of energy charges payable in the Tth year; the larger the value, the better the user's payment credit, and the easier it is to obtain a good cooperative relationship with the energy service provider.

8. The comprehensive energy service potential evaluation method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 5 is characterized by: The credit potential in step 4 is specifically as follows: Relative net sales margin is an indirect indicator of the user's credit potential, expressed as the ratio of the user's annual net sales margin to the maximum value of the corresponding industry, reflecting the user's income capacity: In the formula, NPM represents the user's annual net sales margin; NPM max It indicates the maximum value of the corresponding indicator of the user's corresponding industry; the larger the value is, the better the user's economic situation is in the industry, the more capable the user is to fulfill the contract on time, and the more hope there is to establish a good cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship with the energy service provider.

9. The comprehensive energy service potential assessment method based on the dual-factor theory as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The quantitative method for comprehensive energy service potential analysis in step 5 is specifically as follows: introducing symbolic data based on the entropy weight method, and converting numerical information into the frequency of occurrence to avoid the problem of meaningless indicators caused by missing data, and realize the grading and classification of data to achieve the calculation purpose; specifically including the following steps: Step 5.1: Normalize the n evaluation indicators (represented by set N) of m users (represented by set M) to establish a standardized evaluation matrix A: In the formula, a ij represents the jth normalized index of the i-th user; Step 5.2: Establish the evaluation level and convert the user evaluation matrix into a symbolic data evaluation matrix: Let B = {g1, g2, ..., g e } represents the evaluation level, where g i For interval symbol data, the symbol data evaluation matrix C is obtained: In the formula, represents the symbolic data evaluation value of the i-th user on the j-th indicator; Step 5.3: Calculate the evaluation level frequency d of the indicator ij and evaluation rate p i for: Where card(A) is the number of elements in set A; is the i-th indicator, and its evaluation value is g i The user set of M i is the set of users whose evaluation values ​​of the i-th indicator are not missing; Step 5.4: Construct the indicator evaluation level frequency matrix: Step 5.5: Calculate the expected frequency μ of the evaluation level of the i-th indicator i , standard deviation σ i And the indicator weight ω i : Step 5.6: Based on this, the comprehensive index of the user's health care needs bas and the comprehensive index of the incentive needs act can be calculated respectively: In the formula, the larger the value of bas,act is, the greater the user's demand for this indicator is.

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