Maintenance decision-making method and device of high-voltage circuit breaker, terminal equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a maintenance decision-making method and device for a high-voltage circuit breaker, terminal equipment and a storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: evaluating the safety availability margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the maximum breaking times and fault currents of a plurality of high-voltage circuit breakers, and then determining the non-wear fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in the future, and improving the safety of the high-voltage circuit breaker. Further determining the probability of no initial fault and the probability of no sudden fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the performance information parameters of the high-voltage circuit breaker, and finally evaluating the probability of no fault of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each time period in the future so as to determine a plurality of target high-voltage circuit breakers needing to be maintained in each time period in the future. And a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy is generated. Therefore, the target high-voltage circuit breaker needing to be maintained in each time period is screened out by evaluating the fault-free probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each time period in the future, the high-voltage circuit breaker without the fault risk does not need to be overhauled and maintained, and the maintenance efficiency of the high-voltage circuit breaker is effectively improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of gas-insulated combined electrical equipment, and in particular to a maintenance decision method, device, terminal equipment and storage medium for a high-voltage circuit breaker. Background Art

[0002] As an indispensable component in the power system, high-voltage circuit breakers have the important responsibility of preventing failures in transmission lines, transformers and various equipment in substations. By the end of the 20th century, significant progress had been made in the field of high-voltage switchgear technology, prompting traditional oil-insulated and air-insulated circuit breakers to be gradually replaced by vacuum-insulated and SF6 gas-insulated circuit breakers. These new circuit breakers are more in line with the needs of compact design, significantly reducing maintenance cycles and extending service life. SF6 gas exhibits excellent arc extinguishing characteristics. Specifically, its arc extinguishing speed is nearly 100 times faster than that of air medium. The use of SF6 gas circuit breakers to replace high-voltage oil and air circuit breakers not only improves system reliability, but also effectively reduces operating costs, bringing positive benefits from an economic perspective. Accordingly, it is of vital importance to correctly, efficiently and reasonably maintain high-voltage SF6 circuit breakers to ensure that they reach the expected average service life and maintain the overall stability of the power system.

[0003] At present, the maintenance of circuit breaker equipment is mainly carried out by implementing power outage plans to inspect and maintain the circuit breaker equipment. However, due to the large number of circuit breakers, the workload of maintaining all circuit breakers is extremely large, and the maintenance efficiency is not high, resulting in a long power outage maintenance time, which seriously affects the normal power consumption of users. Summary of the invention

[0004] The embodiments of the present invention provide a maintenance decision method, apparatus, terminal equipment and storage medium for a high-voltage circuit breaker, which formulate a circuit breaker maintenance strategy by evaluating the fault-free probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period, thereby effectively improving the maintenance efficiency of the high-voltage circuit breaker.

[0005] An embodiment of the present invention provides a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker, comprising:

[0006] Acquire performance information parameters, maximum breaking times, and fault current of the high-voltage circuit breakers in each historical breaking state of a plurality of high-voltage circuit breakers in the power system;

[0007] The maximum number of breaking times and the fault current are input into a preset wear-free fault probability model, so that the wear-free fault probability model outputs the wear-free fault probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period; wherein the wear-free fault probability model is a mathematical model for evaluating the safety availability margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the maximum number of breaking times and the experienced fault current of the high-voltage circuit breaker, and then confirming the wear-free fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in the future according to the safety availability margin;

[0008] According to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker, determine the probability of no initial failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker and the probability of no sudden failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period; wherein the probability of no initial failure is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail when it is first opened; the probability of no sudden failure is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of a key component;

[0009] Determine the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the probability of no wear failure, the probability of no sudden failure, and the probability of no initial failure;

[0010] According to the fault-free probability, a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period are determined, and a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy is generated.

[0011] Furthermore, the wear-free failure probability model outputs the wear-free failure probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period, including:

[0012] According to the maximum breaking times of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers, the breaking times and the safety availability margin of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers under several preset working conditions are confirmed, and the time variables of the safety availability margins of several working conditions with respect to time are constructed; wherein the working conditions include: a first working condition, a second working condition, and a third working condition; the first working condition is a case where the fault current is less than a first threshold value, the second working condition is a case where the fault current is between the first threshold value and the second threshold value, the third working condition is a case where the fault current is greater than the second threshold value, the first threshold value is less than the second threshold value, and the second threshold value is less than the third threshold value;

[0013] According to the fault current, the number of interruptions, and the safety margin, confirming the initial wear-free failure probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker under each operating condition that the circuit breaker will not fail due to wear of the arc extinguishing device;

[0014] The probability of a wear-free failure of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers in each future time period is determined according to the number of interruptions, the initial wear-free failure probability, and the time variable.

[0015] Furthermore, the wear-free failure probability model is:

[0016]

[0017] Wherein, P2(t) is the wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in period t, m is the first breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the first working condition, p is the second breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the second working condition, k is the third breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the third working condition, and A m is the first initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the first working condition, A p is the second initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the second working condition, A k is the third initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the third working condition, a1 is the first time variable of the first safety availability margin with respect to time, a2 is the second time variable of the second safety availability margin with respect to time, and a3 is the third time variable of the third safety availability margin with respect to time.

[0018] Further, the performance information parameters include: the model of the high-voltage circuit breaker;

[0019] Determining the probability of no initial failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker includes:

[0020] According to the models of the high-voltage circuit breakers, determining the number of initial faults that occur during the breaking test of the high-voltage circuit breakers of each model;

[0021] The difference between the number of initial failures and the total number of breaking tests is calculated, and the ratio of the difference to the total number of breaking tests is taken as the probability of no initial failure.

[0022] Further, the performance information parameters include: performance parameters of key components in the high-voltage circuit breaker;

[0023] Determining the probability of no sudden failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker includes:

[0024] The probability of no sudden failure of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period is calculated according to the performance parameters by the following formula:

[0025]

[0026] Wherein, P1(t) is the probability of no sudden failure of the high voltage circuit breaker in time period t, and λ0 is the performance parameter.

[0027] Further, determining the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the probability of no wear failure, the probability of no sudden failure, and the probability of no initial failure includes:

[0028] According to the following formula, the probability of no fault of the high voltage circuit breaker in each future period is determined:

[0029] P(t)=P0P1(t)P2(t);

[0030] Among them, P(t) is the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t, P0 is the probability of no initial fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker, P1(t) is the probability of no sudden fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t, and P2(t) is the probability of no wear failure of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t.

[0031] Furthermore, according to the fault-free probability, a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period are determined, and a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy is generated, including:

[0032] Obtaining a preset no-fault probability threshold;

[0033] According to the no-fault probability threshold, confirming the target no-fault probability less than the no-fault probability threshold in each time period, and the target high-voltage circuit breaker corresponding to each target no-fault probability;

[0034] According to a number of target fault-free probabilities in each time period, the target high-voltage circuit breakers are sorted from small to large to determine the maintenance priority of the target high-voltage circuit breakers;

[0035] A circuit breaker maintenance strategy for each time period is generated according to the maintenance priority of the target high-voltage circuit breaker.

[0036] Another embodiment of the present invention provides a maintenance decision device for a high-voltage circuit breaker, comprising:

[0037] A data acquisition module, used to acquire performance information parameters, maximum breaking times, and fault current of a plurality of high-voltage circuit breakers in a power system under each historical breaking state;

[0038] A first fault-free probability module is used to input the maximum number of breaking times and the fault current into a preset wear-free fault probability model, so that the wear-free fault probability model outputs the wear-free fault probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period; wherein the wear-free fault probability model is a mathematical model for evaluating the safety availability margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the maximum number of breaking times and the experienced fault current of the high-voltage circuit breaker, and then confirming the future wear-free fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the safety availability margin;

[0039] The second no-fault probability module is used to determine the probability of no initial fault of each high-voltage circuit breaker and the probability of no sudden fault of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker; wherein the probability of no initial fault is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail when it is first opened; the probability of no sudden fault is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of a key component;

[0040] A no-fault probability calculation module, used to determine the no-fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the no-wear failure probability, the no-sudden failure probability, and the no-initial failure probability;

[0041] A maintenance strategy generation module is used to determine, based on the fault-free probability, a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period, and generate a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy. Another embodiment of the present invention provides a terminal device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker as described in any one of the embodiments is implemented.

[0042] Another embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, which includes a stored computer program, wherein when the computer program is running, the device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker as described in any one of the above embodiments.

[0043] The following beneficial effects are achieved by implementing the present invention:

[0044] The present invention discloses a maintenance decision method, device, terminal equipment and storage medium for a high-voltage circuit breaker. The method is based on the consideration of the limited service life of the high-voltage circuit breaker. According to the maximum number of openings and closings of several high-voltage circuit breakers and the fault current in each historical opening state, the future safety available margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker is evaluated, and then the wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in the future is confirmed. Further, according to the performance information parameters of the high-voltage circuit breaker, the probability of no initial failure that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail at the first opening and the probability of no sudden failure that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of key components in each future period are determined. Finally, the probability of no failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period is evaluated, and then several target high-voltage circuit breakers to be maintained in each future period are determined, and the corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy is generated. Therefore, the present invention screens out the target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each period by evaluating the probability of no failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period, without the need to inspect and maintain the high-voltage circuit breakers with no risk of failure, which effectively improves the maintenance efficiency of the high-voltage circuit breaker. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0045] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker provided in one embodiment of the present invention.

[0046] Figure 2 It is a structural schematic diagram of a maintenance decision device for a high-voltage circuit breaker provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0047] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of different fault current magnitudes on a single line provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0048] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of a mathematical model of the correlation between the magnitude of a fault current and a safety available margin provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0049] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of this application clearer, the technical solutions in this application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of this application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of this application, not all of them. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0050] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by technicians in the technical field to which this application belongs; the terms used herein are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit this application; the terms "including" and "having" in the specification and claims of this application and the above-mentioned figure descriptions and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions.

[0051] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, the technical terms "first", "second", etc. are only used to distinguish different objects, and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number, specific order or primary and secondary relationship of the indicated technical features. In the description of the embodiments of the present application, the meaning of "multiple" is more than two, unless otherwise clearly and specifically defined.

[0052] Reference to "embodiments" herein means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in conjunction with the embodiments may be included in at least one embodiment of the present application. The appearance of the phrase in various locations in the specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor is it an independent or alternative embodiment that is mutually exclusive with other embodiments. It is explicitly and implicitly understood by those skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein may be combined with other embodiments.

[0053] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, the term "and / or" is only a description of the association relationship of the associated objects, indicating that there may be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this article generally indicates that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship.

[0054] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, the term "multiple" refers to more than two (including two). Similarly, "multiple groups" refers to more than two groups (including two groups), and "multiple pieces" refers to more than two pieces (including two pieces).

[0055] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, technical terms such as "installed", "connected", "connected", "fixed" and the like should be understood in a broad sense. For example, it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; it can be a direct connection or an indirect connection through an intermediate medium, and it can be the internal connection of two elements or the interaction relationship between two elements. For those of ordinary skill in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms in the embodiments of the present application can be understood according to the specific circumstances.

[0056] See also Figure 1 , is a flow chart of a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker provided by an embodiment of the present invention, comprising:

[0057] S1. Obtaining performance information parameters, maximum breaking times, and fault current of a plurality of high-voltage circuit breakers in a power system under each historical breaking state;

[0058] S2. Input the maximum number of breaking times and the fault current into a preset wear-free fault probability model, so that the wear-free fault probability model outputs the wear-free fault probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period; wherein the wear-free fault probability model is a mathematical model for evaluating the safety availability margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the maximum number of breaking times and the experienced fault current of the high-voltage circuit breaker, and then confirming the wear-free fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in the future according to the safety availability margin;

[0059] Preferably, the wear-free failure probability model outputs the wear-free failure probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period, including:

[0060] S21. According to the maximum breaking times of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers, confirm the breaking times and the safety availability margin of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers under several preset working conditions, and construct the time variables of the safety availability margin of several working conditions with respect to time; wherein the working conditions include: a first working condition, a second working condition, and a third working condition; the first working condition is a case where the fault current is less than a first threshold value, the second working condition is a case where the fault current is between the first threshold value and the second threshold value, the third working condition is a case where the fault current is greater than the second threshold value, the first threshold value is less than the second threshold value, and the second threshold value is less than the third threshold value;

[0061] S22, according to the fault current, the number of interruptions, and the safety margin, confirming the initial wear-free failure probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker under each working condition that the circuit breaker will not fail due to wear of the arc extinguishing device;

[0062] S23, determining the probability of a wear-free failure of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers in each future time period according to the number of interruptions, the initial wear-free failure probability, and the time variable.

[0063] Preferably, the wear-free failure probability model is:

[0064]

[0065] Wherein, P2(t) is the wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in period t, m is the first breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the first working condition, p is the second breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the second working condition, k is the third breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the third working condition, and A m is the first initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the first working condition, A p is the second initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the second working condition, A k is the third initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the third working condition, a1 is the first time variable of the first safety availability margin with respect to time, a2 is the second time variable of the second safety availability margin with respect to time, and a3 is the third time variable of the third safety availability margin with respect to time.

[0066] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, for various types of circuit breaker equipment with different qualities and different operation times, the concept of "safety availability margin" is proposed and represented by N, E N ,E N-1 ,E N-2... then it represents the state of the circuit breaker with different available life margins. A mathematical probability model is constructed to obtain the equation of the wear-free failure probability P2 with respect to t, and the short-circuit current and failure probability are quantified into mathematical expressions related to time t, the number of interruption statistics and product manual data, thereby estimating the failure-free probability of a specific circuit breaker.

[0067] For the safety margin N, the larger N is, the less likely the circuit breaker is to fail; the larger the fault flow intensity is, the greater the fault flow intensity is, and the more serious the damage to the circuit breaker is. Figure 3 The figure shows the short-circuit current size at different fault points of a single line. The size of different fault currents is the most intuitive data to characterize the strength of the fault current. Figure 4 This is a simplified diagram of the mathematical model established based on the above description. For example, a safety margin is E N After the circuit breaker experiences the fault current, the safety margin becomes E N-1 When N decreases to 0, it means that a fault has occurred in the circuit breaker.

[0068] It is understandable that the probability of failure due to arc extinguishing device wear is usually the main factor affecting the probability of high-voltage circuit breaker failure, so further analysis is carried out and a more detailed mathematical statistical model is established. in is the three-phase short-circuit current when a fault occurs at point Ki. In the actual line operation process, the probability P2(t) of no fault caused by arc extinguishing device wear can be considered to be caused by E N The sum of probabilities of the state to the E1 state:

[0069]

[0070] If N is the initial resource, then each i-th state is characterized by the remainder of resource i and the used resource N–i. The differential equation for the probability of this state is:

[0071]

[0072] According to the above two equations, P2(t) for evaluating a series of high-voltage SF6 circuit breakers can be determined. The specific calculation formula is:

[0073]

[0074] In the formula, a1=λ1t, a2=λ2t, a3=λ3t, A k =(n-1) / λ3,A p =(n-1-λ3k) / λ2,

[0075] A m=(n-1-λ3k-λ2p) / λ1. m represents the number of breaking times under the working condition corresponding to λ1, p represents the number of breaking times under the working condition corresponding to λ2, and k represents the number of breaking times under the working condition corresponding to λ3. For the case where the fault intensity exceeds 3, the same analogy is applied. n is the "remaining safety margin" of a circuit breaker (such as the circuit breaker under test) under this life state. The remaining resource n after the circuit breaker completes several breaking times under different working conditions is determined by the formula n=N-(λ1m+λ2p+λ3k).

[0076] Let's take an example to illustrate i For the BГT-110 series SF6 circuit breaker, the product manual shows that the maximum short-circuit current of the circuit breaker is Set N = 50, in the three-phase fault short-circuit current Under the working condition, the breaking life is 50 times, then λ1 is 50 / 50=1; under the three-phase fault short-circuit current Under the working condition, the breaking life is 28 times, then λ2 is 50 / 28=1.4; under the three-phase fault short-circuit current Under working conditions, the breaking life is 20 times, then λ1 is 50 / 20 = 2.5. In addition, for poorly protected lines and well-protected lines in actual power systems, the fault flow intensity is also different, which can be corrected according to actual conditions and manual experience.

[0077] S3. Determine the probability of no initial failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker and the probability of no sudden failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker; wherein the probability of no initial failure is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail when it is first opened; the probability of no sudden failure is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of a key component;

[0078] Preferably, the performance information parameters include: the model of the high-voltage circuit breaker;

[0079] Determining the probability of no initial failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker includes:

[0080] S31, according to the model of each high-voltage circuit breaker, determining the number of initial faults occurring during the breaking test of each model of high-voltage circuit breaker;

[0081] S32. Calculate the difference between the number of initial failures and the total number of breaking tests, and use the ratio of the difference to the total number of breaking tests as the probability of no initial failure.

[0082] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, P0 represents the probability of no sudden failure. According to statistical data, breaking tests are carried out on the same type of products, and the ratio of the number of probability events of no initial failure to the total number of tests is a constant close to 1, which is denoted as P0. Specifically, P0 is determined by long-term statistical data of the same type of protection equipment, and is generally 0.994-0.999.

[0083] Preferably, the performance information parameters include: performance parameters of key components in the high-voltage circuit breaker;

[0084] Determining the probability of no sudden failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker includes:

[0085] S33. Calculate the probability of no sudden failure of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period according to the performance parameters by the following formula:

[0086]

[0087] Wherein, P1(t) is the probability of no sudden failure of the high voltage circuit breaker in time period t, and λ0 is the performance parameter.

[0088] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, P1(t) represents the probability of no sudden failure and presents an absolutely continuous distribution, that is, the time between two consecutive ends of the same event; P1(t) is a function that changes with time, so it decreases with the time of being put into use. According to the principle of statistical probability distribution, it is assumed that its function graph obeys an absolutely continuous distribution: For λ0 in the above formula, usually according to the performance of the circuit breaker, such as the strength of the contact material's anti-ablation performance, the breaking voltage level, etc., a relevant extremely small real number is selected (CuW80 material breaking 126kV is 0.02, and corresponding adjustments are made according to actual conditions. It can be seen that P0 and P1 have little influence on the probability of no fault. The probability of no fault mainly considers the fault caused by the wear of the high-voltage circuit breaker due to arc burning and ablation.

[0089] S4, determining the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the probability of no wear fault, the probability of no sudden fault, and the probability of no initial fault;

[0090] Preferably, determining the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the probability of no wear fault, the probability of no sudden fault, and the probability of no initial fault includes:

[0091] S41. Determine the fault-free probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period according to the following formula:

[0092] P(t)=P0P1(t)P2(t);

[0093] Among them, P(t) is the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t, P0 is the probability of no initial fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker, P1(t) is the probability of no sudden fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t, and P2(t) is the probability of no wear failure of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t.

[0094] S5. According to the fault-free probability, determine a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period, and generate a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy.

[0095] Preferably, the method of determining a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers to be maintained in each future period according to the no-fault probability and generating a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy includes:

[0096] S51, obtaining a preset no-fault probability threshold;

[0097] S52. According to the no-fault probability threshold, confirm the target no-fault probability less than the no-fault probability threshold in each time period, and the target high-voltage circuit breaker corresponding to each target no-fault probability;

[0098] S53, sorting the target high-voltage circuit breakers from small to large according to a number of target fault-free probabilities in each time period, and determining the maintenance priority of the target high-voltage circuit breakers;

[0099] S54: Generate a circuit breaker maintenance strategy for each time period according to the maintenance priority of the target high-voltage circuit breaker.

[0100] This embodiment provides a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker. Based on the consideration of the limited service life of the high-voltage circuit breaker, according to the maximum number of openings of several high-voltage circuit breakers and the fault current in each historical opening state, the future safety available margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker is evaluated, and then the wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in the future is confirmed. Further, according to the performance information parameters of the high-voltage circuit breaker, the probability of no initial failure that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail at the first opening and the probability of no sudden failure that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of key components in each future period are determined. Finally, the probability of no failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period is evaluated, and then several target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period are determined, and the corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy is generated. Therefore, this embodiment screens out the target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each period by evaluating the probability of no failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period, without the need to inspect and maintain the high-voltage circuit breakers with no risk of failure, and effectively improves the maintenance efficiency of the high-voltage circuit breaker.

[0101] See also Figure 2, is a schematic structural diagram of a maintenance decision device for a high-voltage circuit breaker provided by an embodiment of the present invention, comprising:

[0102] A data acquisition module, used to acquire performance information parameters, maximum breaking times, and fault current of a plurality of high-voltage circuit breakers in a power system under each historical breaking state;

[0103] A first fault-free probability module is used to input the maximum number of breaking times and the fault current into a preset wear-free fault probability model, so that the wear-free fault probability model outputs the wear-free fault probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period; wherein the wear-free fault probability model is a mathematical model for evaluating the safety availability margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the maximum number of breaking times and the experienced fault current of the high-voltage circuit breaker, and then confirming the future wear-free fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the safety availability margin;

[0104] The second no-fault probability module is used to determine the probability of no initial fault of each high-voltage circuit breaker and the probability of no sudden fault of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker; wherein the probability of no initial fault is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail when it is first opened; the probability of no sudden fault is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of a key component;

[0105] A no-fault probability calculation module, used to determine the no-fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the no-wear failure probability, the no-sudden failure probability, and the no-initial failure probability;

[0106] The maintenance strategy generation module is used to determine a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period according to the fault-free probability, and generate corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategies.

[0107] It should be noted that the device embodiments described above are merely schematic, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. In addition, in the accompanying drawings of the device embodiments provided by the present invention, the connection relationship between the modules indicates that there is a communication connection between them, which may be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. A person of ordinary skill in the art may understand and implement it without paying any creative effort.

[0108] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the device described above can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0109] Another preferred embodiment of the present invention provides a terminal device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker as described in any one of the above embodiments is implemented.

[0110] The terminal device may be a computing device such as a desktop computer, a notebook, a PDA, a cloud server, etc. The terminal device may include, but is not limited to, a processor and a memory.

[0111] The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor, etc. The processor is the control center of the terminal device, and uses various interfaces and lines to connect various parts of the entire terminal device.

[0112] The memory can be used to store the computer program, and the processor realizes various functions of the terminal device by running or executing the computer program stored in the memory and calling the data stored in the memory. The memory can mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area can store an operating system, at least one application required for a function, etc.; the data storage area can store data created according to the use of the mobile phone, etc. In addition, the memory can include a high-speed random access memory, and can also include a non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a smart memory card (Smart Media Card, SMC), a secure digital (Secure Digital, SD) card, a flash card (Flash Card), at least one disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other volatile solid-state storage devices.

[0113] Another preferred embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, the storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, the computer program is stored in the computer-readable storage medium, and the computer program, when executed by the processor, can implement the steps of the above-mentioned various method embodiments. Wherein, the computer program includes computer program code, and the computer program code can be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, USB flash drive, mobile hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), electrical carrier signal, telecommunication signal and software distribution medium, etc.

[0114] The above is a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that a person skilled in the art can make several improvements and modifications without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications are also considered to be within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A maintenance decision method for a high voltage circuit breaker, characterized in that: include: Acquire performance information parameters, maximum breaking times, and fault current of the high-voltage circuit breakers in each historical breaking state of a plurality of high-voltage circuit breakers in the power system; The maximum number of breaking times and the fault current are input into a preset wear-free fault probability model, so that the wear-free fault probability model outputs the wear-free fault probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period; wherein the wear-free fault probability model is a mathematical model for evaluating the safety availability margin in the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the maximum number of breaking times and the experienced fault current of the high-voltage circuit breaker, and then confirming the wear-free fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in the future according to the safety availability margin; According to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker, determine the probability of no initial failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker and the probability of no sudden failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period; wherein the probability of no initial failure is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail when it is first opened; the probability of no sudden failure is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of a key component; Determine the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the probability of no wear failure, the probability of no sudden failure, and the probability of no initial failure; According to the fault-free probability, a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period are determined, and a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy is generated.

2. A maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker according to claim 1, characterized in that: The wear-free failure probability model outputs the wear-free failure probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period, including: According to the maximum breaking times of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers, the breaking times and the safety availability margin of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers under several preset working conditions are confirmed, and the time variables of the safety availability margins of several working conditions with respect to time are constructed; wherein the working conditions include: a first working condition, a second working condition, and a third working condition; the first working condition is a case where the fault current is less than a first threshold value, the second working condition is a case where the fault current is between the first threshold value and the second threshold value, the third working condition is a case where the fault current is greater than the second threshold value, the first threshold value is less than the second threshold value, and the second threshold value is less than the third threshold value; According to the fault current, the number of interruptions, and the safety margin, confirming the initial wear-free failure probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker under each operating condition that the circuit breaker will not fail due to wear of the arc extinguishing device; The probability of a wear-free failure of each of the high-voltage circuit breakers in each future time period is determined according to the number of interruptions, the initial wear-free failure probability, and the time variable.

3. A maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker according to claim 2, characterized in that: The wear-free failure probability model is: Wherein, P2(t) is the wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in period t, m is the first breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the first working condition, p is the second breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the second working condition, k is the third breaking number of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the third working condition, and A m is the first initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the first working condition, A p is the second initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the second working condition, A k is the third initial wear-free failure probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker under the third working condition, a1 is the first time variable of the first safety availability margin with respect to time, a2 is the second time variable of the second safety availability margin with respect to time, and a3 is the third time variable of the third safety availability margin with respect to time.

4. A maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker according to claim 3, characterized in that: The performance information parameters include: the model of the high-voltage circuit breaker; Determining the probability of no initial failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker includes: According to the models of the high-voltage circuit breakers, determining the number of initial faults that occur during the breaking test of the high-voltage circuit breakers of each model; The difference between the number of initial failures and the total number of breaking tests is calculated, and the ratio of the difference to the total number of breaking tests is taken as the probability of no initial failure.

5. A maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker according to claim 4, characterized in that: The performance information parameters include: performance parameters of key components in the high-voltage circuit breaker; Determining the probability of no sudden failure of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker includes: The probability of no sudden failure of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period is calculated according to the performance parameters by the following formula: Wherein, P1(t) is the probability of no sudden failure of the high voltage circuit breaker in time period t, and λ0 is the performance parameter.

6. A maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker according to claim 5, characterized in that: The method of determining the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the probability of no wear fault, the probability of no sudden fault, and the probability of no initial fault comprises: According to the following formula, the probability of no fault of the high voltage circuit breaker in each future period is determined: P(t)=P0P1(t)P2(t); Among them, P(t) is the probability of no fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t, P0 is the probability of no initial fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker, P1(t) is the probability of no sudden fault of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t, and P2(t) is the probability of no wear failure of the high-voltage circuit breaker in time period t.

7. A maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker according to claim 6, characterized in that: The method of determining a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period according to the no-fault probability and generating a corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategy includes: Obtaining a preset no-fault probability threshold; According to the no-fault probability threshold, confirming the target no-fault probability less than the no-fault probability threshold in each time period, and the target high-voltage circuit breaker corresponding to each target no-fault probability; According to a number of target fault-free probabilities in each time period, the target high-voltage circuit breakers are sorted from small to large to determine the maintenance priority of the target high-voltage circuit breakers; A circuit breaker maintenance strategy for each time period is generated according to the maintenance priority of the target high-voltage circuit breaker.

8. A maintenance decision device for a high voltage circuit breaker, characterized in that: include: A data acquisition module, used to acquire performance information parameters, maximum breaking times, and fault current of a plurality of high-voltage circuit breakers in a power system under each historical breaking state; A first fault-free probability module is used to input the maximum number of breaking times and the fault current into a preset wear-free fault probability model, so that the wear-free fault probability model outputs the wear-free fault probability of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future period; wherein the wear-free fault probability model is a mathematical model for evaluating the safety availability margin of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the maximum number of breaking times and the experienced fault current of the high-voltage circuit breaker, and then confirming the future wear-free fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker according to the safety availability margin; The second no-fault probability module is used to determine the probability of no initial fault of each high-voltage circuit breaker and the probability of no sudden fault of each high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the performance information parameters of each high-voltage circuit breaker; wherein the probability of no initial fault is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail when it is first opened; the probability of no sudden fault is the probability that the high-voltage circuit breaker will not fail due to sudden failure of a key component; A no-fault probability calculation module, used to determine the no-fault probability of the high-voltage circuit breaker in each future time period according to the no-wear failure probability, the no-sudden failure probability, and the no-initial failure probability; The maintenance strategy generation module is used to determine a number of target high-voltage circuit breakers that need to be maintained in each future period according to the fault-free probability, and generate corresponding circuit breaker maintenance strategies.

9. A terminal device, characterized in that: The method comprises a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium includes a stored computer program, wherein when the computer program is running, the device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute a maintenance decision method for a high-voltage circuit breaker according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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