Trusted capacity evaluation method and device for wind-solar-storage integrated system, and storage medium
By building a tradable capacity optimization model and a trusted capacity benefit evaluation model for the integrated wind, light and storage system, the problem of failure to fully consider energy storage efficiency and execution risks in the existing technology is solved, and a more accurate and efficient credible capacity evaluation and improvement of capacity market transaction returns is achieved.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411790791.2
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-12-06
- Publication Date
- 2025-03-28
AI Technical Summary
When evaluating the trusted capacity of the wind and photovoltaic storage integrated system, the prior art fails to fully consider the support benefits of energy storage for system capacity services and the execution risks of trusted capacity evaluation results, and cannot simply accumulate the output characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic power generation.
By building a tradable capacity optimization model based on the historical operation data of the integrated wind, light and storage system, setting constraints and solving them, we can obtain the tradable capacity of each operation date. Then, based on the tradable capacity, a trusted capacity deviation risk and transaction returns are obtained, a trusted capacity benefit evaluation model is built, and the credible capacity benefit evaluation value is solved to obtain the trusted capacity evaluation value.
Fully considering the support benefits of energy storage for the capacity services of wind, light and storage integrated system and the execution risks of trusted capacity evaluation results, the system's profits in capacity market transactions and the accuracy and reliability of evaluation are improved.
Smart Images
Figure CN119726674A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of electric power dispatching, and in particular to a reliable capacity assessment method, device and storage medium for a wind-solar-storage integrated system. Background Art
[0002] Credible capacity is an important parameter for capacity market transactions. Its role is to serve as a reference indicator for market members' capacity market transactions and as a reference for their declared tradable capacity. In recent years, with the rapid development of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, new energy power generation companies have become emerging capacity market trading parties. Unlike traditional coal-fired power, hydropower and other conventional power sources, the power generation capacity of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics is limited by natural resources such as wind and light, and the adjustability of power generation output is poor. In capacity market transactions, new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics do not have the ability to declare transactions based on their installed capacity, and can only use their credible capacity as a reference for declaring trading capacity.
[0003] At present, the research on the credible capacity of new energy sources focuses on the evaluation of the credible capacity of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, while there is relatively little research on energy complexes such as integrated wind, solar and storage.
[0004] Existing reliable capacity analysis of new energy sources usually only targets wind power or photovoltaic power generation separately. However, the two types of new energy sources, wind and solar power, have different power generation characteristics, which means that the reliable capacity assessment of the wind, solar and storage integrated system cannot be simply based on the accumulation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation output characteristics. At the same time, the existing reliable capacity analysis of new energy sources generally follows the analysis of historical data characteristics, and does not fully consider the supporting benefits of energy storage for the capacity services of the wind, solar and storage integrated system and the execution risks of the reliable capacity assessment results, and evaluate their benefit and assessment relationship. Summary of the invention
[0005] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, device and storage medium for evaluating the trusted capacity of an integrated wind, solar and storage system, so as to solve the problem that in the prior art, usually only wind power or photovoltaic power is evaluated separately, but the two types of new energy power generation characteristics are different, resulting in that the trusted capacity evaluation of the integrated wind, solar and storage system cannot be simply accumulated by the output characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic power generation; at the same time, the existing new energy trusted capacity analysis as a whole follows the historical data characteristics analysis, and does not fully consider the supporting benefits of energy storage to the capacity service of the integrated wind, solar and storage system and the execution risks of the trusted capacity evaluation results, and evaluate the relationship between its benefits and assessment.
[0006] According to a first aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a method for evaluating the credible capacity of a wind-solar-storage integrated system is provided, the method comprising:
[0007] Based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, a tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed; the constraints of the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system are set and solved to obtain the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each operating day over a period of time in history;
[0008] Obtaining a credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity;
[0009] Obtaining a trusted capacity transaction income, and obtaining a trusted capacity benefit evaluation index based on the trusted capacity transaction income and the trusted capacity deviation risk;
[0010] Based on the credible capacity benefit evaluation index, a credible capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed and solved to obtain a credible capacity evaluation value when the credible capacity benefit evaluation index is maximum.
[0011] Preferably,
[0012] The constructing of a credible capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the credible capacity benefit evaluation index comprises:
[0013] With the goal of maximizing the credible capacity benefit evaluation index, and with the credible capacity evaluation value satisfying the tradable capacity limit of the wind-solar-storage integrated system as a constraint condition, a credible capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed.
[0014] Preferably,
[0015] The obtaining of the credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity includes:
[0016] Based on the tradable capacity, the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system within each interval is obtained;
[0017] The credible capacity deviation risk is obtained based on the occurrence probability of the tradable capacity.
[0018] Preferably,
[0019] The method of obtaining the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system within each interval based on the tradable capacity includes:
[0020] The tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system on each operating day within the historical period is sorted from small to large to obtain the variation range of the tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system. Within the variation range of the tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system, it is divided into N intervals, and the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system in each interval is obtained based on the number of occurrences of the tradable capacity in each interval.
[0021] Preferably,
[0022] The construction of the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time includes:
[0023] Obtaining wind power output, photovoltaic power output and net exchange power of energy storage device from historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time;
[0024] Based on the wind power output, photovoltaic power output and the net exchange power of the energy storage device, the power generation output of the wind, photovoltaic and energy storage integrated system is obtained;
[0025] A tradable capacity optimization model for the wind, solar and storage integrated system is constructed based on the power generation output of the wind, solar and storage integrated system.
[0026] Preferably,
[0027] The constraint conditions for setting the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system include:
[0028] Grid operation constraints and equipment operation constraints;
[0029] The grid operation constraints include: the power generation output of the wind, solar and storage integrated system does not exceed the grid operation limit.
[0030] Preferably,
[0031] The equipment operation constraints include:
[0032] Wind power generation constraints, photovoltaic power generation constraints, energy storage exchange power constraints, energy storage discharge limit constraints, energy storage charging limit constraints, and energy storage capacity constraints;
[0033] The wind power generation constraint comprises: obtaining the wind power abandonment power of each operating day in the historical operating data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, and establishing the wind power generation constraint by taking the sum of the wind power abandonment power and the wind power output of each operating day as equal to the maximum wind power generation output;
[0034] The photovoltaic power generation constraint comprises: obtaining the photovoltaic abandoned light power of each operating day in the historical operating data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, and establishing the photovoltaic power generation constraint by taking the sum of the photovoltaic abandoned light power and the photovoltaic power generation output of each operating day as equal to the photovoltaic maximum power generation output;
[0035] The energy storage exchange power constraint includes: obtaining the discharge power and charging power of each operating day in the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, and establishing the energy storage exchange power constraint by taking the difference between the discharge power and the charging power of each operating day as equal to the net exchange power of the energy storage device;
[0036] The energy storage discharge limit constraint includes: establishing an energy storage discharge limit constraint with the discharge power on each operation day not exceeding the discharge power limit of the energy storage device;
[0037] The energy storage charging restriction constraint includes: establishing an energy storage charging restriction constraint with the charging power on each operation day not exceeding the charging power limit of the energy storage device;
[0038] The energy storage capacity constraint includes: obtaining the initial energy storage of the energy storage device on each operating day in the historical operating data of the wind, solar and storage integrated system over a period of time, obtaining the real-time power on each operating day based on the charging power and discharging power on each operating day, and establishing an energy storage capacity constraint by satisfying the upper and lower limits of the energy storage capacity of the energy storage device with the sum of the real-time power on each operating day and the initial energy storage of the energy storage device.
[0039] Preferably,
[0040] The revenue from obtaining the trusted capacity transaction includes:
[0041] Obtain the current capacity market clearing price, and obtain the trusted capacity transaction income based on the current capacity market clearing price and the trusted capacity assessment value.
[0042] Preferably,
[0043] The obtaining of the credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity occurrence probability includes:
[0044] A deviation assessment price is set, and based on the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the integrated wind, solar and storage system within each interval and the deviation assessment price, the assessment fee is obtained when the real-time tradable capacity is lower than the credible capacity evaluation value, and the assessment fee is used as the credible capacity deviation risk.
[0045] According to a second aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a reliable capacity assessment device for a wind-solar-storage integrated system is provided, the device comprising:
[0046] The tradable capacity acquisition module is used to construct a tradable capacity optimization model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time; set the constraint conditions of the tradable capacity optimization model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system and solve them to obtain the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each operating day over a period of time;
[0047] Deviation risk acquisition module: used for acquiring credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity;
[0048] Evaluation index acquisition module: used to obtain the trusted capacity transaction income, and obtain the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index based on the trusted capacity transaction income and the trusted capacity deviation risk;
[0049] Trusted capacity evaluation value acquisition module: used to construct and solve a trusted capacity benefit evaluation model of a wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index, and obtain a trusted capacity evaluation value when the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index is maximum.
[0050] According to a third aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a storage medium, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a main controller, each step in the above method is implemented.
[0051] The technical solution provided by the embodiments of the present invention may have the following beneficial effects:
[0052] This application constructs an optimization model for the tradable capacity of an integrated wind, solar and storage system based on the historical operating data of the integrated wind, solar and storage system, and solves the tradable capacity of each operating day within a historical period of time; based on the tradable capacity of each operating day within a historical period of time, the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the integrated wind, solar and storage system within each interval is obtained; on this basis, the expected return on the credible capacity of the capacity market and the risk of actual execution deviation are comprehensively considered, and an optimization model with the goal of maximizing the return on the credible capacity of the integrated wind, solar and storage system is constructed to obtain the credible capacity; compared with traditional methods, the method proposed in this application fully considers the potential benefits of energy storage devices in improving the capacity support capacity of the integrated wind, solar and storage system, and considers the execution deviation risk and market trading returns, so as to improve the capacity market trading returns of the integrated wind, solar and storage system.
[0053] It is to be understood that the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the invention. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0054] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.
[0055] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a reliable capacity assessment method of a wind-solar-storage integrated system according to an exemplary embodiment;
[0056] Figure 2 is a system schematic diagram of a reliable capacity assessment device for a wind-solar-storage integrated system according to another exemplary embodiment;
[0057] In the attached figure: 1-tradable capacity acquisition module, 2-bias risk acquisition module, 3-evaluation index acquisition module, 4-trusted capacity assessment value acquisition module. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0058] Exemplary embodiments will be described in detail herein, examples of which are shown in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the drawings, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The embodiments described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all embodiments consistent with the present invention. Instead, they are merely examples of devices and methods consistent with some aspects of the present invention as detailed in the appended claims.
[0059] Embodiment 1
[0060] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a reliable capacity assessment method for a wind-solar-storage integrated system according to an exemplary embodiment. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:
[0061] S1, constructing a tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time; setting and solving the constraint conditions of the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system to obtain the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each operating day over a period of history;
[0062] S2, obtaining a credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity;
[0063] S3, obtaining a trusted capacity transaction income, and obtaining a trusted capacity benefit evaluation index based on the trusted capacity transaction income and the trusted capacity deviation risk;
[0064] S4, constructing a credible capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the credible capacity benefit evaluation index and solving it to obtain a credible capacity evaluation value when the credible capacity benefit evaluation index is maximum;
[0065] It is understandable that this application first needs to obtain the operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system for a period of history, including: the maximum exchange power of energy storage, the storage capacity limit, the wind-solar-storage integrated system and internal wind power, photovoltaic power generation output, abandoned wind and photovoltaic power, the maximum power generation output limit of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each operating day, and the capacity market clearing price from the power market trading system;
[0066] Constructing a tradable capacity optimization model for wind, solar and storage integrated systems:
[0067] Taking maximizing the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system as the optimization goal, an optimization model for the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed.
[0068] The tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system refers to the maximum power output that can be stably provided during the capacity service response period released by the market operator. By optimizing the charging and discharging power of the energy storage device, the overall power output of the wind-solar-storage integrated system can be adjusted to increase its tradable capacity. The tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system can be expressed as:
[0069]
[0070] In the formula, It represents the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on the operating day. NTC represents the capacity service response period. is the power generation output of the wind-solar-storage integrated system at time t on the operating day, that is, the sum of the wind power, photovoltaic power generation output and the net exchange power of the energy storage device, which can be expressed as:
[0071]
[0072] In the formula, They are wind power, photovoltaic power generation output and net exchange power of energy storage device, respectively;
[0073] Constructing the constraints of the wind-solar-storage integrated tradable capacity optimization model: The constraints that need to be considered include two types: grid operation constraints and equipment operation constraints. It should be noted that the optimization of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system should cover all periods of the operating day to ensure that the optimization results can meet the operation coordination requirements of each period. The two types of constraints are as follows:
[0074] The grid operation constraints require that the power generation output of the wind, solar and storage integrated system does not exceed the grid operation control requirements, namely:
[0075]
[0076] In the formula, The grid operation control requirements for the operation day are provided by the market operating agency before the transaction;
[0077] Equipment operation constraints require that the wind power, photovoltaic power generation output and energy storage device exchange power in the wind-solar-storage integrated system meet the equipment operation requirements, including wind power, photovoltaic power generation output constraints and energy storage exchange power constraints, including:
[0078] Wind power generation constraints:
[0079]
[0080] In the formula, They are the wind power abandonment power and the maximum power generation output during period t of the operating day d;
[0081] Photovoltaic power generation constraints:
[0082]
[0083] In the formula, They are the photovoltaic abandoned power and the maximum power generation output during period t of the operating day;
[0084] Energy storage exchange power constraints:
[0085]
[0086] In the formula, are the discharge power and charging power during period t of the operating day d, respectively;
[0087] Energy storage discharge limit constraints:
[0088]
[0089] In the formula, The discharge power limit of the energy storage device on the operating day;
[0090] Energy storage charging restrictions:
[0091]
[0092] In the formula, The charging power limit of the energy storage device on the operating day;
[0093] Energy storage capacity constraints:
[0094]
[0095] In the formula, S max , S min are the upper and lower limits of the energy storage device, E d,0 is the initial energy storage of the energy storage device, ΔT is the operating day interval;
[0096] Taking the maximization of the tradable capacity shown in formula (1) as the optimization goal and considering the constraints of formulas (3)-(9), the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system can be constructed, which can be expressed as:
[0097]
[0098] The optimization model shown in formula (10) is a maximum-minimum planning problem mathematically, which can be solved by the simplex method or by calling commercial software packages such as Cplex to obtain the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system that meets the operating requirements on each operating day;
[0099] The tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each historical operating day obtained above is counted and sorted from small to large. Within the range of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system, it is divided into N intervals. The distribution frequency of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system in the historical data is counted. This embodiment recommends that the number of divided intervals is not less than 10. The probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system within each interval is calculated, that is, the statistical occurrence frequency is used as the evaluation value of the occurrence probability, which can be expressed as:
[0100]
[0101] In the formula, f n represents the probability of occurrence of credible capacity in interval n of the wind-solar-storage integrated system, N n 、N S Represents the number and total number of reliable capacity occurrences in interval n of the wind-solar-storage integrated system;
[0102] Constructing a reliable capacity benefit evaluation model for wind, solar and storage integrated systems:
[0103] Taking the maximization of the credible capacity benefit as the optimization goal, based on the distribution characteristics of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system, the credible capacity evaluation results that meet the benefit requirements are evaluated. If the credible capacity evaluation value of the wind-solar-storage integrated system is too high, its actual capacity service capability will not reach the evaluation value in actual operation, causing it to be subject to economic assessment; on the contrary, if the credible capacity evaluation value is too low, the capacity market revenue will decrease; a credible capacity benefit evaluation index is constructed, which includes two parts: credible capacity trading revenue and credible capacity deviation risk. Among them, the credible capacity trading revenue is the product of the credible capacity evaluation value and the expected clearing price of the capacity market, which can be expressed as:
[0104] E WPS,P =R WPS p WPS (12)
[0105] In the formula, E WPS,P Represents the revenue from the trusted capacity transaction of the wind-solar-storage integrated system, R WPS is the trusted capacity assessment value of the wind-solar-storage integrated system, which is the ultimate goal to be obtained in this embodiment. WPS represents the expected clearing price of the capacity market;
[0106] The risk of credible capacity deviation is that the actual tradable capacity is lower than the expected assessment cost under the credible capacity, which can be expressed as:
[0107]
[0108] In the formula, E WPS,C represents the credible capacity deviation risk of the wind-solar-storage integrated system, NF represents the interval where the tradable capacity is lower than the credible capacity, and pWPS,C represents the deviation assessment price, f n Represents the probability of occurrence of the credible capacity of interval n of the wind-solar-storage integrated system obtained above;
[0109] In summary, the evaluation index of credible capacity benefit is the difference between credible capacity transaction income and credible capacity deviation risk, which can be expressed as:
[0110] E WPS =E WPS,P -E WPS,C (14)
[0111] In the formula, E WPS Represents the reliable capacity benefit evaluation index of wind-solar-storage integrated system;
[0112] A reliable capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed. The model takes the reliable capacity benefit evaluation index of formula (14) as the optimization target and the reliable capacity transaction range as the constraint, which can be expressed as:
[0113]
[0114] In the formula, R TC.max , R TC.min They are the maximum and minimum tradable capacities of the wind-solar-storage integrated system, respectively;
[0115] This model is essentially a mixed integer programming problem. The branch and bound method or calling commercial software such as Cplex can be used to solve the credible capacity assessment value that maximizes the transaction benefits of the wind, solar and storage integrated system.
[0116] Embodiment 2
[0117] Figure 2 1 is a system schematic diagram of a wind-solar-storage integrated system trustworthy capacity assessment device according to another exemplary embodiment, the device comprising:
[0118] Tradable capacity acquisition module 1: used to construct a tradable capacity optimization model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time; set and solve the constraint conditions of the tradable capacity optimization model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system to obtain the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each operating day over a period of time;
[0119] Deviation risk acquisition module 2: used for acquiring credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity;
[0120] Evaluation index acquisition module 3: used to obtain the trusted capacity transaction income, and obtain the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index based on the trusted capacity transaction income and the trusted capacity deviation risk;
[0121] Trusted capacity evaluation value acquisition module 4: used to construct and solve a trusted capacity benefit evaluation model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index, and obtain a trusted capacity evaluation value when the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index is maximum.
[0122] Embodiment three:
[0123] This embodiment provides a storage medium, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a main controller, each step in the above method is implemented;
[0124] It is understandable that the storage medium mentioned above can be a read-only memory, a magnetic disk or an optical disk, etc.
[0125] It can be understood that the same or similar parts of the above embodiments can be referenced to each other, and the contents not described in detail in some embodiments can refer to the same or similar contents in other embodiments.
[0126] It should be noted that, in the description of the present invention, the terms "first", "second", etc. are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance. In addition, in the description of the present invention, unless otherwise specified, the meaning of "plurality" refers to at least two.
[0127] Any process or method description in a flowchart or otherwise described herein may be understood to represent a module, segment or portion of code that includes one or more executable instructions for implementing the steps of a specific logical function or process, and the scope of the preferred embodiments of the present invention includes alternative implementations in which functions may not be performed in the order shown or discussed, including performing functions in a substantially simultaneous manner or in the reverse order depending on the functions involved, which should be understood by those skilled in the art to which the embodiments of the present invention belong.
[0128] It should be understood that the various parts of the present invention can be implemented by hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. In the above-mentioned embodiments, a plurality of steps or methods can be implemented by software or firmware stored in a memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented by hardware, as in another embodiment, it can be implemented by any one of the following technologies known in the art or their combination: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function for a data signal, a dedicated integrated circuit having a suitable combination of logic gate circuits, a programmable gate array (PGA), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), etc.
[0129] A person skilled in the art may understand that all or part of the steps in the method for implementing the above-mentioned embodiment may be completed by instructing related hardware through a program, and the program may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, which, when executed, includes one or a combination of the steps of the method embodiment.
[0130] In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into a processing module, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one module. The above-mentioned integrated module may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of a software functional module. If the integrated module is implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as an independent product, it may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium.
[0131] The storage medium mentioned above can be a read-only memory, a magnetic disk or an optical disk, etc.
[0132] In the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "some embodiments", "examples", "specific examples", or "some examples" means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of the above terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.
[0133] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is to be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and are not to be construed as limitations of the present invention. A person skilled in the art may change, modify, replace and vary the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.
Claims
1. A reliable capacity assessment method for a wind-solar-storage integrated system, characterized in that: The method comprises: Based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, a tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed; the constraints of the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system are set and solved to obtain the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each operating day over a period of time in history; Obtaining a credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity; Obtaining a trusted capacity transaction income, and obtaining a trusted capacity benefit evaluation index based on the trusted capacity transaction income and the trusted capacity deviation risk; Based on the credible capacity benefit evaluation index, a credible capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed and solved to obtain a credible capacity evaluation value when the credible capacity benefit evaluation index is maximum.
2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The constructing of a credible capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the credible capacity benefit evaluation index comprises: With the goal of maximizing the credible capacity benefit evaluation index, and with the credible capacity evaluation value satisfying the tradable capacity limit of the wind-solar-storage integrated system as a constraint condition, a credible capacity benefit evaluation model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system is constructed.
3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The obtaining of the credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity includes: Based on the tradable capacity, the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system within each interval is obtained; The credible capacity deviation risk is obtained based on the occurrence probability of the tradable capacity.
4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The method of obtaining the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system within each interval based on the tradable capacity includes: The tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system on each operating day within the historical period is sorted from small to large to obtain the variation range of the tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system. Within the variation range of the tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system, it is divided into N intervals, and the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the wind, solar and storage integrated system in each interval is obtained based on the number of occurrences of the tradable capacity in each interval.
5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The construction of the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time includes: Obtaining wind power output, photovoltaic power output and net exchange power of energy storage device from historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time; Based on the wind power output, photovoltaic power output and the net exchange power of the energy storage device, the power generation output of the wind, photovoltaic and energy storage integrated system is obtained; A tradable capacity optimization model for the wind, solar and storage integrated system is constructed based on the power generation output of the wind, solar and storage integrated system.
6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The constraint conditions for setting the tradable capacity optimization model of the wind-solar-storage integrated system include: Grid operation constraints and equipment operation constraints; The grid operation constraints include: the power generation output of the wind, solar and storage integrated system does not exceed the grid operation limit.
7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The equipment operation constraints include: Wind power generation constraints, photovoltaic power generation constraints, energy storage exchange power constraints, energy storage discharge limit constraints, energy storage charging limit constraints, and energy storage capacity constraints; The wind power generation constraint comprises: obtaining the wind power abandonment power of each operating day in the historical operating data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, and establishing the wind power generation constraint by taking the sum of the wind power abandonment power and the wind power output of each operating day as equal to the maximum wind power generation output; The photovoltaic power generation constraint comprises: obtaining the photovoltaic abandoned light power of each operating day in the historical operating data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, and establishing the photovoltaic power generation constraint by taking the sum of the photovoltaic abandoned light power and the photovoltaic power generation output of each operating day as equal to the photovoltaic maximum power generation output; The energy storage exchange power constraint includes: obtaining the discharge power and charging power of each operating day in the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time, and establishing the energy storage exchange power constraint by taking the difference between the discharge power and the charging power of each operating day as equal to the net exchange power of the energy storage device; The energy storage discharge limit constraint includes: establishing an energy storage discharge limit constraint with the discharge power on each operation day not exceeding the discharge power limit of the energy storage device; The energy storage charging restriction constraint includes: establishing an energy storage charging restriction constraint with the charging power on each operation day not exceeding the charging power limit of the energy storage device; The energy storage capacity constraint includes: obtaining the initial energy storage of the energy storage device on each operating day in the historical operating data of the wind, solar and storage integrated system over a period of time, obtaining the real-time power on each operating day based on the charging power and discharging power on each operating day, and establishing an energy storage capacity constraint by satisfying the upper and lower limits of the energy storage capacity of the energy storage device with the sum of the real-time power on each operating day and the initial energy storage of the energy storage device.
8. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that The revenue from obtaining the trusted capacity transaction includes: Obtain the current capacity market clearing price, and obtain the trusted capacity transaction income based on the current capacity market clearing price and the trusted capacity assessment value.
9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that The obtaining of the credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity occurrence probability includes: A deviation assessment price is set, and based on the probability of occurrence of the tradable capacity of the integrated wind, solar and storage system within each interval and the deviation assessment price, the assessment fee is obtained when the real-time tradable capacity is lower than the credible capacity evaluation value, and the assessment fee is used as the credible capacity deviation risk.
10. A reliable capacity assessment device for a wind, solar and storage integrated system, characterized in that: The device comprises: The tradable capacity acquisition module is used to construct a tradable capacity optimization model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the historical operation data of the wind-solar-storage integrated system over a period of time; set the constraint conditions of the tradable capacity optimization model for the wind-solar-storage integrated system and solve them to obtain the tradable capacity of the wind-solar-storage integrated system on each operating day over a period of time; Deviation risk acquisition module: used for acquiring credible capacity deviation risk based on the tradable capacity; Evaluation index acquisition module: used to obtain the trusted capacity transaction income, and obtain the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index based on the trusted capacity transaction income and the trusted capacity deviation risk; Trusted capacity evaluation value acquisition module: used to construct and solve a trusted capacity benefit evaluation model of a wind-solar-storage integrated system based on the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index, and obtain a trusted capacity evaluation value when the trusted capacity benefit evaluation index is maximum.
11. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the main controller, each step of the trusted capacity assessment method of the wind-solar-storage integrated system as described in any one of claims 1 to 9 is implemented.