County agricultural initial water right accounting and distribution method

By analyzing and predicting the total amount of agricultural water used in counties, and combining the screening and statistical analysis of agricultural information data, the water rights allocation coefficient and allocation amount of agricultural users are calculated, and the problem of unreasonable water rights allocation in the existing technology is solved, and the accuracy and rationality of water rights allocation is improved.

CN119849851APending Publication Date: 2025-04-18HEILONGJIANG PROVINCIAL HYDRAULIC RES INST
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202411987306.0
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-12-31
Publication Date
2025-04-18

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing technology is calculated based on historical water use data in county agricultural water rights accounting and distribution, resulting in unreasonable allocation of water rights and lack of targeted analytical agricultural information data.

Method used

By obtaining water resource analysis reports for county agriculture, the total amount of agricultural water used in multiple historical periods is analyzed by using the time series method, its stability is judged and prediction is made, and the water rights allocation coefficient and allocation amount of agricultural users are calculated based on the statistical analysis and screening of agricultural information data.

Benefits of technology

The accuracy and rationality of water rights allocation have been improved, and the decision-making basis is provided for subsequent county water rights allocation, ensuring the rational allocation and use of water resources.

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of agricultural water distribution, and provides a county agricultural initial water right accounting and distribution method, which comprises the following steps: processing and analyzing the total amount of agricultural water in a plurality of historical years through a time sequence method, and judging whether the total amount of agricultural water is stable in the plurality of historical years; the method comprises the following steps: predicting the total amount of agricultural water in the next year period of the county, obtaining the total amount of agricultural water distribution in the next year period of the county, carrying out statistical analysis on agricultural information data used when the water right distribution coefficients of agricultural users in the county are calculated in a plurality of historical year periods, screening out target agricultural data, and calculating the agricultural water distribution coefficients of the agricultural users in the county according to the target agricultural data. According to the method, the agricultural information data is screened, the water right distribution coefficient of the agricultural users in the county is calculated, the water right distribution amount of the agricultural users in the county is calculated in combination with the total agricultural water distribution amount, the water right distribution coefficient of the agricultural users is calculated more reasonably and fairly through screening of the agricultural information data, and the reasonability of water right distribution is further improved.
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Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of agricultural water allocation, and specifically is a method for calculating and allocating initial water rights for county agriculture. Background Art

[0002] Agriculture is a major water user in my country, accounting for more than 60% of the total water consumption, and most irrigation methods are field irrigation, so agricultural water use has huge water-saving potential. However, the traditional agricultural water rights allocation method is insufficient in many aspects, such as unreasonable water rights allocation. Therefore, it is of great significance to study a county agricultural initial water rights accounting and allocation method; In the existing technology, the water rights accounting and allocation of county agriculture is usually calculated and analyzed based on the agricultural water use data of historical years. However, the water rights accounting and allocation based on the agricultural water use data of historical years often leads to the agricultural water use and the total amount of water resources not being consistent with the actual situation, resulting in the problem of insufficient rationality of water rights allocation. More importantly, when the water rights accounting and allocation are carried out in the existing technology, there is a lack of targeted analysis of the agricultural information data used when calculating the water rights allocation for agricultural users and other water users. For example, there is a lack of consideration of the agricultural information data collected and calculated when the water rights accounting and allocation are combined with the historical usage performance and usage trends of the data. The reason is that the agricultural information data collected and calculated when the water rights accounting and allocation are often evaluated and considered by multiple parties, such as the willingness survey of agricultural users, the evaluation of water resources agencies, etc. If the relevant agricultural information data that meets the conditions is selected for water rights accounting and allocation in combination with the historical usage performance and usage trends of the data, it will be beneficial to improve the rationality of water rights accounting and allocation.

[0003] To this end, the present invention provides a method for calculating and allocating initial water rights for county agriculture. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to make up for the deficiencies of the prior art, at least one technical problem raised in the background technology is solved.

[0005] The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve its technical problem is: In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county, comprising: Step 1: Based on the county agricultural water resources analysis report, obtain the total agricultural water consumption of the county in multiple historical cycles, and process and analyze the total agricultural water consumption in multiple historical cycles through the time series method. According to the analysis results, determine whether the total agricultural water consumption is stable in multiple historical cycles, and predict the total agricultural water consumption of the county in the next one-year cycle based on the judgment results, and obtain the total agricultural water allocation of the county in the next one-year cycle; Step 2: Obtain agricultural information data used to calculate water rights allocation coefficients for agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods, conduct statistical analysis on the agricultural information data, and select target agricultural data from the agricultural information data based on the statistical analysis results; Step 3: Based on the selected target agricultural data, the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county is calculated and processed, and the water rights allocation amount of agricultural users in the county is calculated in combination with the total agricultural water allocation.

[0006] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a county-level agricultural initial water rights accounting and allocation system, comprising: Agricultural water use analysis module: According to the county agricultural water resources analysis report, the total agricultural water use in the county in multiple historical periods is obtained, and the total agricultural water use in multiple historical periods is processed and analyzed by the time series method. According to the analysis results, it is judged whether the total agricultural water use is stable in multiple historical periods, and the total agricultural water use in the county in the next one-year period is predicted according to the judgment results, so as to obtain the total agricultural water allocation in the county in the next one-year period; Agricultural data screening module: obtains agricultural information data used to calculate water rights allocation coefficients for agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods, performs statistical analysis on the agricultural information data, and screens out target agricultural data from the agricultural information data based on the statistical analysis results; Water rights allocation module: Based on the screened target agricultural data, the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county is calculated and processed, and the water rights allocation amount of agricultural users in the county is calculated based on the total agricultural water allocation.

[0007] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: 1. According to the water resource analysis report of county agriculture, the total amount of agricultural water consumption in the county in multiple historical periods is obtained, and the total amount of agricultural water consumption in multiple historical periods is processed and analyzed by the time series method. According to the analysis results, whether the total amount of agricultural water consumption is stable in multiple historical periods is judged, and according to the judgment results, the total amount of agricultural water consumption in the county in the next annual period is predicted to obtain the total amount of agricultural water allocated in the county in the next annual period. The present invention predicts and analyzes the total amount of agricultural water allocated in the next annual period based on the total amount of agricultural water consumption in the county in multiple historical periods, which is conducive to improving the accuracy and rationality of water rights allocation and providing a decision-making basis for subsequent county water rights allocation.

[0008] 2. Perform statistical analysis on the agricultural information data used to calculate the water rights allocation coefficient for agricultural users in the county over multiple historical periods, screen out target agricultural data from the agricultural information data, and calculate the water rights allocation coefficient for agricultural users in the county based on the target agricultural data, and calculate the water rights allocation amount for agricultural users in the county in combination with the total agricultural water allocation. The present invention calculates the water rights allocation coefficient for agricultural users more reasonably and fairly through the screening of agricultural information data, thereby further improving the rationality of water rights allocation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0009] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0010] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the steps of a method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 It is a flowchart of a county-level agricultural initial water rights accounting and allocation system described in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0011] In order to make the technical means, creative features, objectives and effects achieved by the present invention easy to understand, the present invention is further explained below in conjunction with specific implementation methods. Example

[0012] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps: Step 1: Based on the county agricultural water resources analysis report, obtain the total agricultural water consumption of the county in multiple historical cycles, and process and analyze the total agricultural water consumption in multiple historical cycles through the time series method. According to the analysis results, determine whether the total agricultural water consumption is stable in multiple historical cycles, and predict the total agricultural water consumption of the county in the next one-year cycle based on the judgment results, and obtain the total agricultural water allocation of the county in the next one-year cycle; Specifically, the process of processing and analyzing the total amount of agricultural water use in multiple historical periods through the time series method is as follows: S1, extract the total agricultural water use of the county in multiple historical periods in the water resources analysis report, and construct the time series of the total agricultural water use: (Ys1, Ys2, Ys3, Ys4...Ys n ), where Ys n represents the total amount of agricultural water use in the corresponding historical period, and n represents the historical period; S2, select the time window K, the K value is determined by automatic determination methods such as Multi-Window-Finder; S3, calculate the data mean of the inner time window after each time window moves, that is, the moving average; S4, integrating all moving averages to obtain a moving average sequence, and integrating every two adjacent moving averages in the moving average sequence to obtain a plurality of moving data groups; For example, the existing moving average sequence is (J1, J2, J3...J i ), where J i represents the moving average value, i represents the number of moving average values; the integrated moving data groups are (J1, J2), (J2, J3)......(J i-1 , J i ); Calculating the change rate of the mobile data group, and comparing the change rate with a preset change rate, marking the mobile data group according to the comparison result to obtain a stable data group and an unstable data group; Specifically, if the change rate corresponding to the mobile data group is greater than a preset change rate, the mobile data group is marked as an unstable data group; If the change rate corresponding to the mobile data group is less than or equal to the preset change rate, the mobile data group is marked as a stable data group; It should be noted that the calculation formula of the change rate BL is: ; Count the number of unstable data groups and compare them with the number of mobile data groups to get the unstable number ratio, which is marked as BW; Based on the unstable data group, the change rate corresponding to the unstable data group is processed with the preset change rate, and the absolute value of the difference is taken to obtain the change rate deviation corresponding to the unstable data group. The change rate deviations corresponding to all unstable data groups are summed and averaged to obtain the mean of the change rate deviations. The mean of the change rate deviations is processed with the preset change rate to obtain the instability value, which is marked as BD. The unstable quantity ratio BW and the unstable degree value BD are processed by the formula: The water consumption non-steady value FW is obtained, where s1 and s2 are preset proportional coefficients, where s1 is 1.021 and s2 is 1.314; In some embodiments, the water use instability value is compared to a water use instability threshold; If the water use instability value is greater than or equal to the water use instability threshold, it means that the total agricultural water use is unstable over multiple historical cycles; If the water use instability value is less than the water use instability threshold, it means that the total agricultural water use is stable over multiple historical cycles; Based on the stability of the total agricultural water use in multiple historical cycles, the total agricultural water use in the time series of the total agricultural water use is summed and averaged to obtain the total agricultural water allocation of the county in the next annual cycle; As the total amount of agricultural water use is unstable in multiple historical cycles, the random forest algorithm is used to process and analyze the time series of the total amount of agricultural water use, including: A1. Use feature extraction technology to extract common features of the time series of total agricultural water use, including but not limited to lag features and moving averages; A2, using the difference algorithm to smooth the time series of total agricultural water use; A3, 70% of the total agricultural water use data in the processed time series of total agricultural water use is used as the training set, and 30% of the total agricultural water use data is used as the test set. The training set and the test set are used to train and test the random forest model to obtain the random forest model after training; A4, predict the total amount of agricultural water use through the trained random forest model to obtain the total amount of agricultural water allocation in the county within the next one-year period; The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention is: according to the water resource analysis report of the county agriculture, the total amount of agricultural water consumption in the county in multiple historical periods is obtained, and the total amount of agricultural water consumption in multiple historical periods is processed and analyzed by the time series method, and whether the total amount of agricultural water consumption is stable in multiple historical periods is judged according to the analysis results, and the total amount of agricultural water consumption in the county in the next annual period is predicted according to the judgment result to obtain the total amount of agricultural water allocation in the county in the next annual period. The present invention predicts and analyzes the total amount of agricultural water allocation in the next annual period based on the total amount of agricultural water consumption in the county in multiple historical periods, which is conducive to improving the accuracy and rationality of water rights allocation and providing a decision-making basis for subsequent county water rights allocation. Example

[0013] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps: Step 2: Obtain agricultural information data used to calculate water rights allocation coefficients for agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods, conduct statistical analysis on the agricultural information data, and select target agricultural data from the agricultural information data based on the statistical analysis results; Among them, agricultural information data include but are not limited to the cultivated land area, irrigation quota and water use efficiency of agricultural users; Specifically, the process of statistical analysis of agricultural information data includes: The agricultural information data used in calculating the water rights allocation coefficients for agricultural users within the county in multiple historical periods are de-duplicated and integrated into a historical use data table; Based on any agricultural information data in the historical usage data table; The number of times agricultural information data is used to calculate the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods is counted, and the ratio is processed with the total number of data usage to obtain the usage ratio of agricultural information data, which is marked as SC; Among them, the total number of data uses is the same as the number of historical year cycles; If the agricultural information data is used within the historical period, the historical period is marked as the used period; if the agricultural information data is not used within the historical period, the historical period is marked as the unused period; The number of intervals between the use period cycles is counted and compared with the total number of data uses to obtain the use interval ratio of agricultural information data, which is marked as SJ. The obtained agricultural information data usage frequency ratio SC and usage interval frequency ratio SJ are processed by the formula: The usage performance value SY is obtained, wherein a1 and a2 are both preset proportional coefficients, wherein a1 is 1.63 and a2 is 1.28; comparing the usage performance value SY with a usage performance threshold; If the usage performance value SY is greater than or equal to the usage performance threshold, the agricultural information data is retained in the historical usage data table; If the usage performance value SY is less than the usage performance threshold, the agricultural information data is screened out in the historical usage data table, and the screened out historical usage data table is sorted from large to small according to the usage performance value, and integrated to obtain the first screening table; Count the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening, and compare it with the historical usage number of agricultural information data, wherein the historical usage number of agricultural information data is obtained by taking the average of the total amount of agricultural information data used in multiple historical periods; If the amount of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening is equal to the historical usage amount of agricultural information data, then the agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening is the target agricultural data; If the number of agricultural information data in the historical use data table after screening is less than the historical use number of agricultural information data, then select agricultural information data in the first screening table in descending order according to the ranking and add them to the historical use data table after screening until the number of agricultural information data in the historical use data table after screening is equal to the historical use number of agricultural information data, then stop selecting, and the agricultural information data added to the completed historical use data table after screening is the target agricultural data; If the amount of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening is greater than the historical usage amount of agricultural information data, a secondary screening signal is generated; If a secondary screening signal is generated, any agricultural information data in the data table is used based on the history after screening; According to the service life cycles and unused life cycles corresponding to the agricultural information data, the number of unused life cycles between every two adjacent service life cycles is obtained to obtain the number of interval years, and all the interval years are integrated into an interval year number group. For example, if the adjacent service life cycles are the first year and the fifth year, the unused life cycles between them are the second year, the third year and the fourth year, and the number is 3; Mark the interval years in the interval years group in sequence in the XY coordinate system to obtain multiple interval years data points; wherein the X axis represents the unit length and the Y axis represents the interval years; for example, in the interval years group, the first interval years number is marked corresponding to the first unit length on the X axis; The obtained interval year data points are fitted by the least square method to obtain a fitting straight line; Obtain the slope value of the fitting line. If the slope value of the fitting line is greater than or equal to 0, the agricultural information data is screened out, and the screened agricultural information data is sorted from large to small according to the usage performance value, and integrated to obtain a second screening table; If the slope of the fitted line is less than 0, calculate the R 2 value (coefficient of determination); By formula: The data retention value BL is obtained, wherein z1 and z2 are both preset proportional coefficients, z1 is 1.041, and z2 is 1.316; It should be noted that the meaning of the data retention value BL is that the data retention value BL is analyzed by combining the usage performance of agricultural information data in multiple historical periods (usage performance value SY) and the trend performance of the usage interval of agricultural information data. The trend performance analysis of the usage interval of agricultural information data is to fit the usage interval of agricultural information data to obtain a fitting straight line. When the slope of the fitting straight line is negative (decreasing), the fitting effect is analyzed, that is, R 2The closeness of the value to 1 is used to judge whether the usage interval of agricultural information data presents a decreasing trend. The purpose is to consider the attenuation and increasing trends of data usage when screening agricultural information data, so as to select agricultural information data more reasonably. comparing the data retention value to a data retention threshold; If the data retention value BL is greater than or equal to the data retention threshold, the agricultural information data will be retained; If the data retention value BL is less than the data retention threshold, the agricultural information data is screened out to obtain a historical usage data table after secondary screening, and the screened agricultural information data is sorted from large to small according to the usage performance value, and integrated to obtain a third screening table; Count the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after secondary screening. If the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after secondary screening is greater than or equal to the historical usage number of agricultural information data, the agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after secondary screening is the target agricultural data. If the number of agricultural information data in the historical use data table after the secondary screening is less than the historical use number of agricultural information data, then the agricultural information data are selected in the third screening table in order of ranking from high to low and added to the historical use data table after the secondary screening. If the agricultural information data in the historical use data table after the secondary screening is still less than the historical use number of agricultural information data after the third screening table is selected, then the agricultural information data are selected in order of ranking from high to low in the second screening table to continue to be added to the historical use data table after the secondary screening. The agricultural information data in the historical use data table after the secondary screening after the addition is completed is the target agricultural data; It should be noted that the method of selecting agricultural information data in the first screening table, the second screening table and the third screening table is the same; Step 3: Based on the selected target agricultural data, calculate and process the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county, and calculate the water rights allocation amount of agricultural users in the county in combination with the total agricultural water allocation; Specifically, according to the water resource analysis report of county agriculture, the target agricultural data corresponding to each agricultural user in the county in the most recent historical period is obtained, and multiple target agricultural data sets are constructed. The water right allocation sub-coefficient of agricultural users is calculated according to each target agricultural data set. Among them, the calculation process of the water rights allocation sub-coefficient of agricultural users is: Based on any target agricultural dataset; The target agricultural data corresponding to the agricultural user in the target agricultural data set is processed with the total amount of target agricultural data to obtain the water rights allocation sub-coefficient of the agricultural user, where the total amount of target agricultural data is the sum of all target agricultural data in the target agricultural data set; For example, assume that the target agricultural data set is the cultivated land area data set MJ = (MJ1, MJ2, MJ3...MJ p ), among which MJ p is the cultivated land area corresponding to the agricultural user, and p is the agricultural user number; the calculation formula of the water right allocation sub-coefficient FPZ of the agricultural user is: ; Based on the existence of multiple target agricultural data sets, multiple water right allocation sub-coefficients for agricultural users can be obtained, and the water right allocation coefficients for agricultural users can be obtained by multiplying the multiple water right allocation sub-coefficients; The water rights allocation amount for agricultural users is calculated by multiplying the water rights allocation coefficient for agricultural users by the total amount of agricultural water allocation; The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention is: statistical analysis is performed on the agricultural information data used to calculate the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county within multiple historical periods, target agricultural data is screened out from the agricultural information data, and based on the target agricultural data, the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county is calculated, and the water rights allocation amount of agricultural users in the county is calculated in combination with the total agricultural water allocation. The present invention calculates the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users more reasonably and fairly by screening the agricultural information data, thereby further improving the rationality of water rights allocation. Example

[0014] A county-level agricultural initial water rights accounting and allocation system according to an embodiment of the present invention includes: Agricultural water use analysis module: According to the county agricultural water resources analysis report, the total agricultural water use in the county in multiple historical periods is obtained, and the total agricultural water use in multiple historical periods is processed and analyzed by the time series method. According to the analysis results, it is judged whether the total agricultural water use is stable in multiple historical periods, and the total agricultural water use in the county in the next one-year period is predicted according to the judgment results, so as to obtain the total agricultural water allocation in the county in the next one-year period; Agricultural data screening module: obtains agricultural information data used to calculate water rights allocation coefficients for agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods, performs statistical analysis on the agricultural information data, and screens out target agricultural data from the agricultural information data based on the statistical analysis results; Water rights allocation module: Based on the screened target agricultural data, the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county is calculated and processed, and the water rights allocation amount of agricultural users in the county is calculated based on the total agricultural water allocation.

[0015] The above shows and describes the basic principles, main features and advantages of the present invention. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. The above embodiments and descriptions are only for explaining the principles of the present invention. Without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, the present invention may have various changes and improvements, which fall within the scope of the present invention. The scope of protection of the present invention is defined by the attached claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county, characterized by: include: Step 1: Based on the county agricultural water resources analysis report, obtain the total agricultural water consumption of the county in multiple historical cycles, and process and analyze the total agricultural water consumption in multiple historical cycles through the time series method. According to the analysis results, determine whether the total agricultural water consumption is stable in multiple historical cycles, and predict the total agricultural water consumption of the county in the next one-year cycle based on the judgment results, and obtain the total agricultural water allocation of the county in the next one-year cycle; Step 2: Obtain agricultural information data used to calculate water rights allocation coefficients for agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods, conduct statistical analysis on the agricultural information data, and select target agricultural data from the agricultural information data based on the statistical analysis results; Step 3: Based on the selected target agricultural data, the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county is calculated and processed, and the water rights allocation amount of agricultural users in the county is calculated in combination with the total agricultural water allocation.

2. The method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 1 is characterized by: The process of processing and analyzing the total amount of agricultural water use in multiple historical periods by using the time series method is as follows: S1: Extract the total agricultural water use of the county in multiple historical periods in the water resources analysis report and construct a time series of the total agricultural water use S2, select time window K; S3, calculate the data mean of the inner time window after each time window moves, that is, the moving average; S4, integrating all moving averages to obtain a moving average sequence, and integrating every two adjacent moving averages in the moving average sequence to obtain a plurality of moving data groups; Calculating the change rate of the mobile data group, if the change rate corresponding to the mobile data group is greater than the preset change rate, marking the mobile data group as an unstable data group; Based on the processing and analysis of the unstable data group, the unstable quantity ratio BW and the unstable degree value BD are obtained; By formula: The water consumption non-steady value FW is obtained, where s1 and s2 are preset proportional coefficients, where s1 is 1.021 and s2 is 1.314; comparing the water use instability value with the water use instability threshold; If the water use instability value is greater than or equal to the water use instability threshold, it means that the total agricultural water use is unstable over multiple historical cycles; If the water use instability value is less than the water use instability threshold, it means that the total agricultural water use is stable over multiple historical cycles.

3. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 2, characterized in that: The unstable quantity ratio BW and the unstable degree value BD are obtained as follows: Count the number of unstable data groups and compare them with the number of mobile data groups to get the unstable number ratio, which is marked as BW; Based on the unstable data group, the change rate corresponding to the unstable data group is processed with the preset change rate, and the absolute value of the difference is taken to obtain the change rate deviation corresponding to the unstable data group. The change rate deviations corresponding to all unstable data groups are summed and averaged to obtain the mean of the change rate deviations. The mean of the change rate deviations is ratioed with the preset change rate to obtain the instability degree value, which is marked as BD.

4. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 2, characterized in that: The total amount of agricultural water allocated to the county in the next one-year period is obtained as follows: Based on the stability of the total agricultural water use in multiple historical cycles, the total agricultural water use in the time series of the total agricultural water use is summed and averaged to obtain the total agricultural water allocation of the county in the next annual cycle; As the total amount of agricultural water use is unstable in multiple historical cycles, the random forest algorithm is used to process and analyze the time series of the total amount of agricultural water use, including: A1, using feature extraction techniques to extract common features of the time series of total agricultural water use, including lag features and moving averages; A2, using the difference algorithm to smooth the time series of total agricultural water use; A3, 70% of the total agricultural water use data in the processed time series of total agricultural water use is used as the training set, and 30% of the total agricultural water use data is used as the test set. The training set and the test set are used to train and test the random forest model to obtain the random forest model after training; A4, predict the total amount of agricultural water use through the trained random forest model to obtain the total amount of agricultural water allocation in the county within the next one-year period.

5. The method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 1, characterized in that: The process of statistically analyzing agricultural information data includes: The agricultural information data used in calculating the water rights allocation coefficients for agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods are de-duplicated and integrated into a historical use data table; based on any agricultural information data in the historical use data table, the use performance value SY is obtained by processing and analyzing; If the usage performance value SY is greater than or equal to the usage performance threshold, the agricultural information data is retained in the historical usage data table; if the usage performance value SY is less than the usage performance threshold, the agricultural information data is screened out to obtain a screened historical usage data table, and the screened agricultural information data is sorted from large to small according to the usage performance value, and integrated to obtain a first screened table; Count the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening. If the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening is equal to the historical usage number of agricultural information data, then the agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening is the target agricultural data; If the amount of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening is less than the historical usage amount of agricultural information data, then the agricultural information data in the first screening table are selected in descending order according to the ranking and added to the historical usage data table after screening. The agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening after adding is the target agricultural data; If the amount of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after screening is greater than the historical usage amount of agricultural information data, a secondary screening signal is generated.

6. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 5, characterized in that: The method for obtaining the usage performance value SY is as follows: The number of times agricultural information data is used to calculate the water rights allocation coefficient of agricultural users in the county in multiple historical periods is counted, and the ratio is processed with the total number of data usage to obtain the usage ratio of agricultural information data, which is marked as SC; If the agricultural information data is used within the historical period, the historical period is marked as the used period; if the agricultural information data is not used within the historical period, the historical period is marked as the unused period; The number of intervals between the use period cycles is counted and compared with the total number of data uses to obtain the use interval ratio of agricultural information data, which is marked as SJ; By formula: The usage performance value SY is obtained, wherein a1 and a2 are both preset proportional coefficients, wherein a1 is 1.63 and a2 is 1.

28.

7. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 6, characterized in that: The process of statistically analyzing agricultural information data also includes: If a secondary screening signal is generated, any agricultural information data in the data table is used based on the history after screening; According to the use period and unuse period corresponding to the agricultural information data, the number of unuse periods between every two adjacent use periods is obtained to obtain the number of interval periods, and all the number of interval periods are integrated into an interval period number group; Mark the interval year quantities in the interval year quantity group in sequence in the XY coordinate system to obtain a plurality of interval year data points; Fit the interval year data points to obtain a fitted straight line; obtain the slope value of the fitted straight line, if the slope value of the fitted straight line is greater than or equal to 0, screen out the agricultural information data, and sort the screened agricultural information data from large to small according to the usage performance value, and integrate them to obtain a second screening table; if the slope value of the fitted straight line is less than 0, calculate and process to obtain a data retention value BL, if the data retention value BL is greater than or equal to the data retention threshold, retain the agricultural information data; If the data retention value BL is less than the data retention threshold, the agricultural information data is screened out to obtain a historical usage data table after secondary screening, and the screened agricultural information data is sorted from large to small according to the usage performance value, and integrated to obtain a third screening table; Count the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after secondary screening. If the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after secondary screening is greater than or equal to the historical usage number of agricultural information data, the agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after secondary screening is the target agricultural data. If the number of agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after the secondary screening is less than the historical usage number of agricultural information data, then the agricultural information data are selected in order from high to low in the third screening table according to the ranking and added to the historical usage data table after the secondary screening. If, after the third screening table is selected, the agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after the secondary screening is still less than the historical usage number of agricultural information data, then the agricultural information data are selected in order from high to low in the second screening table according to the ranking and continue to be added to the historical usage data table after the secondary screening. The agricultural information data in the historical usage data table after the secondary screening after the addition is completed is the target agricultural data.

8. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 7, characterized in that: The data retention value BL is obtained in the following manner: Calculate the R of the fitted line 2 Value, through the formula: The data retention value BL is obtained, wherein z1 and z2 are both preset proportional coefficients, the value of z1 is 1.041, and the value of z2 is 1.

316.

9. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation method for the water rights allocation to agricultural users in the county is: According to the county agricultural water resources analysis report, the target agricultural data corresponding to each agricultural user in the county in the most recent historical period is obtained, and multiple target agricultural data sets are constructed. The water rights allocation sub-coefficient of agricultural users is calculated based on each target agricultural data set. Based on the existence of multiple target agricultural data sets, multiple water right allocation sub-coefficients for agricultural users can be obtained, and the water right allocation coefficients for agricultural users can be obtained by multiplying the multiple water right allocation sub-coefficients; The water rights allocation amount for agricultural users is calculated by multiplying the water rights allocation coefficient for agricultural users by the total agricultural water allocation.

10. A method for calculating and allocating initial agricultural water rights in a county according to claim 9, characterized in that: The calculation method of the water rights allocation sub-coefficient for agricultural users is: Based on any target agricultural dataset; The target agricultural data corresponding to the agricultural users in the target agricultural data set are ratio processed with the total amount of target agricultural data to obtain the water rights allocation sub-coefficient of the agricultural users, where the total amount of target agricultural data is the sum of all target agricultural data in the target agricultural data set.

Citation Information

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