Economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management

Abstract

The invention relates to an economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management. The method comprises the steps of obtaining an energy consumption demand of a carbon asset management subject; obtaining prices and quantities of spot goods and futures of a plurality of carbon asset defining and pricing subsystems of the carbon asset management main body under each carbon cycle scene within a preset time range, wherein the plurality of carbon asset defining and pricing subsystems comprise carbon emission quota, carbon sink, carbon asset stock right and carbon asset creditor right; constructing an economic path optimization model based on the prices and quantities of the present and futures of the plurality of carbon asset definition pricing subsystems under each carbon cycle scene within a preset time range, and the trading quantities of the present and futures; and on the basis of the economic path optimization model, taking the buying and selling quantity of the current and futures as optimization variables, taking the carbon asset value management economic path optimization as an optimization target, and on the premise of meeting the energy consumption demand of the carbon asset management main body, combining preset constraint conditions to determine the optimal buying and selling quantity of the current and futures.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to an economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management, which is applicable to the field of carbon asset economic value management. Background Art

[0002] The economic value of carbon assets is increasingly evident in global climate governance and sustainable development, and has become an important driving force for the transformation of the green economy. The realization of the economic value of carbon assets relies on the support of a series of background technologies, including carbon emission trading mechanisms, carbon financial instruments, and carbon pricing models. These technologies quantify carbon assets through market means, allowing carbon assets to be traded and invested as financial assets. In addition, the application of blockchain technology enhances the transparency and credibility of carbon trading, while big data and artificial intelligence technologies are used to optimize the valuation and management of carbon assets. Many background technologies have given new connotations to the economic value of carbon assets, promoting the development of the carbon market and the realization of a low-carbon economy. Summary of the invention

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide an economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management, so that companies or projects can optimize the management of carbon asset economic value paths while meeting energy consumption requirements and the national carbon market compliance cycle.

[0004] The technical solution adopted by the present invention is: an economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management, characterized by comprising:

[0005] Obtain the energy consumption demand of the carbon asset management entity;

[0006] Obtain the spot and futures prices and quantities of multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems under various carbon cycle scenarios within a preset time range for the carbon asset management entity, wherein the multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems include carbon emission quotas, carbon sinks, carbon asset equity, and carbon asset debt;

[0007] Based on the prices and quantities of current and futures of multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems under various carbon cycle scenarios within a preset time range, as well as the buying and selling quantities of current and futures, an economic path optimization model is constructed;

[0008] Based on the economic path optimization model, the buying and selling quantities of spot and futures are used as optimization variables, and the optimal economic path of carbon asset value management is used as the optimization goal. On the premise of meeting the energy consumption needs of the carbon asset management entity, combined with the preset constraints, the optimal buying and selling quantities of spot and futures are determined.

[0009] The carbon cycle scenarios include carbon source, zero carbon and carbon sink.

[0010] The economic path optimization model includes:

[0011] C=C1+C2

[0012] Among them, C is the economically optimal carbon asset value management path, C1 is the economically optimal carbon asset spot value management path, and C2 is the economically optimal carbon asset futures value management path;

[0013]

[0014] Among them, T1 is the spot time range of the model; S1 is the spot carbon cycle scenario set of the model; is the spot unit price of carbon emission quota in year t1 under scenario s1; is the spot quantity of carbon emission quotas in year t1 after trading under scenario s1; is the spot unit price of carbon sinks in year t1 under scenario s1; is the spot quantity of carbon sinks in year t1 after buying and selling under scenario s1; is the spot equity transaction consideration or appraisal price of carbon assets in year t1 under scenario s1; is the number of carbon asset spot equity in year t1 after buying and selling under scenario s1; is the transaction price or appraisal price of the carbon asset spot debt in year t1 under scenario s1; is the number of spot claims on carbon assets in year t1 after buying and selling under scenario s1;

[0015]

[0016] Among them, T2 is the futures time range of the model; S2 is the futures carbon cycle scenario set of the model; is the unit price of carbon emission quota futures in year t2 under scenario s2; is the futures quantity of carbon emission quotas in year t2 after trading under scenario s2; is the unit price of carbon sink futures in year t2 under scenario s2; is the futures quantity of carbon sinks in year t2 after buying and selling under scenario s2; is the carbon asset equity futures transaction price in year t2 under spot scenario s2; is the futures quantity of carbon asset equity in year t2 after buying and selling under scenario s2; is the transaction price of carbon asset debt futures in year t2 under scenario s2; It is the futures quantity of carbon asset claims in year t2 after trading under spot scenario s2.

[0017] The constraint conditions include one or more of carbon emission compliance control constraints, carbon sink increase constraints, carbon sink offset constraints and transaction balance constraints.

[0018] Also includes:

[0019] Through corresponding measures, the spot quantity of carbon quotas and the futures quantity of carbon quotas allocated by the competent authorities shall be influenced, and the economic costs of the corresponding measures shall be considered.

[0020] Also includes:

[0021] The spot quantity of carbon sinks and the forward carbon sink futures quantity are manufactured and planned, and the economic cost of manufacturing and planning carbon sinks is considered.

[0022] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: based on the definition of carbon asset economic value, the present invention constructs an economic path optimization model based on carbon asset value management on the spot and futures time scales, taking into account carbon source, zero carbon, carbon sink scenarios, as well as carbon emission quotas, carbon sinks, carbon asset equity, carbon asset claims, carbon sinks offset by carbon emission quota settlement, and carbon emission quota settlement. The present invention broadly supplements the economic value of carbon assets, allowing companies or projects to optimize the management of carbon asset economic value paths under the premise of meeting energy consumption needs and the national carbon market compliance cycle.

[0023] The present invention introduces carbon emission quotas, carbon sinks, equity and debt, and strategic paths for price, quantity and economic value management at spot and futures points. It can fully consider the hedging of asset prices at spot and futures points, scientifically quantify the economic value of the overall carbon assets at multiple scales, and comprehensively reflect various aspects of the company or project's strategy in finding the optimal path for carbon asset economic management, thereby improving the general scientific nature and practical value of the model.

[0024] The present invention takes into account the value of carbon assets in the equity and debt of a company or project, and combines the spot time point and the forward time point to assetize and quantify the equity and debt of carbon assets. On the one hand, it can better reflect the path of carbon assets in management, and on the other hand, it can provide economic value assessment for future carbon asset back-end financial derivatives.

[0025] The present invention has strong universality and expansibility, and can be applied to companies or projects of different types, sizes and systems. It can also adjust and increase the parameters, variables and constraints of the model according to actual conditions and needs, thereby improving the applicability and flexibility of the model.

[0026] The present invention can provide scientific decision-making support for the carbon asset economic value management of a company or project, and help the company or project find the path to optimize the economic value of carbon assets, which may include carbon emission control plans, carbon emission purchase and sales strategies, carbon sink manufacturing plans, carbon sink 5% carbon emission offset plans, carbon sink purchase and sales strategies, carbon asset equity purchase and sales strategies, and carbon asset debt lending and interest collection and borrowing and interest payment strategies, so as to achieve the scientific green transformation of the company or project and maximize the market economic value.

[0027] The present invention can provide companies or projects with feasible path options and help formulate and implement different marketing strategies.

[0028] The positioning of carbon quotas and carbon sinks for assets and the equivalent relationship between different parameters of the present invention can guide companies or projects to find the optimal solution from the asset side in key behavioral decisions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0029] Figure 1 It is a model block diagram of the economic path optimization model in the embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0030] Embodiment 1: This embodiment is an economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0031] S1. Obtain the energy consumption demand of the carbon asset management entity (company or project).

[0032] S2. Obtain the spot and futures prices and quantities of multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems under various carbon cycle scenarios within a preset time range of the carbon asset management entity, wherein the multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems include carbon emission quotas, carbon sinks, carbon asset equity, and carbon asset debt.

[0033] S3. Based on the prices and quantities of spot and futures contracts, as well as the buying and selling quantities of spot and futures contracts, the pricing subsystem defines multiple carbon assets under various carbon cycle scenarios within a preset time range, and constructs an economic path optimization model.

[0034] The objective function of the economic path optimization model in this embodiment is:

[0035] C=C1+C2

[0036] Among them, C is the economically optimal carbon asset value management path, C1 is the economically optimal carbon asset spot value management path, and C2 is the economically optimal carbon asset futures value management path. At the same time, we are looking for the economically optimal carbon asset spot and futures value management paths C1 and C2, that is, the economically optimal carbon asset value management path C.

[0037] Among them, the specific formula of the economically optimized carbon asset spot value management path C1 and the model objective function is:

[0038]

[0039] Among them, T1 is the spot time range of the model, with years as the time unit; S1 is the spot scenario set of the model, which is set as three scenarios: carbon source, zero carbon, and carbon sink; is the spot unit price of carbon emission allowance (CEA) in year t1 under scenario s1, which is determined by the open market transaction price of Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange; The spot quantity of carbon emission allowances (CEA) in year t1 under scenario s1 after considering the buying and selling quantities (the quantity obtained in S2 plus the corresponding buying and selling quantities), which is determined by the holdings of the company or project; is the spot unit price of carbon sink (CCER) in year t1 under scenario s1, which is determined by the open market transaction price of Beijing Green Exchange; The spot quantity of carbon sinks (CCER) in year t1 under scenario s1 after considering the buying and selling quantities is determined by the holdings of the company or project; is the spot equity transaction price or appraisal price of carbon assets in year t1 under scenario s1, which is determined by the supply and demand relationship in the carbon asset equity trading market; It is the quantity of carbon asset spot equity in year t1 under scenario s1 after considering the number of sales and purchases, which is determined by the holdings of the company or project; is the transaction price or appraisal price of the carbon asset spot debt in year t1 under scenario s1, which is determined by the supply and demand relationship in the carbon asset debt trading market; It is the quantity of spot claims on carbon assets in year t1 under scenario s1 after considering the quantity of buying and selling, which is determined by the holdings of the company or project.

[0040] At the same time, the specific formula of the economic optimization carbon asset futures value management path C2 and the model objective function is:

[0041]

[0042] Among them, T2 is the futures time range of the model, with years as the time unit; S2 is the futures scenario set of the model, which is set as three scenarios: carbon source, zero carbon, and carbon sink; The unit price of carbon emission allowance (CEA) futures in year t2 under scenario s2, determined by the non-standardized carbon emission allowance futures transaction price of the company or project corresponding to scenario s2 and year t2, if any; The quantity of carbon emission allowance (CEA) futures in year t2 under scenario s2 after considering the buying and selling quantities, which is determined by the number of non-standardized carbon emission allowance futures transactions that have occurred in the company or project corresponding to scenario s2 and year t2, if any; The unit price of carbon sink (CCER) futures in year t2 under scenario s2, determined by the non-standardized carbon sink futures transaction price of the company or project corresponding to scenario s2 and year t2, if any; The quantity of carbon sink (CCER) futures in scenario s2 and year t2 after considering the buying and selling quantities, which is determined by the number of non-standardized carbon sink futures transactions that have occurred in the company or project corresponding to scenario s2 and year t2, if any; The carbon asset equity futures transaction price in year t2 under spot scenario s2 is determined by the non-standardized carbon asset equity futures transaction price that has occurred for the company or project in the corresponding scenario s2 and year t2, if any; The number of carbon asset equity futures in scenario s2 and year t2 after considering the number of purchases and sales, determined by the number of non-standardized carbon asset equity futures transactions that have occurred for the company or project in scenario s2 and year t2, if any; The carbon asset debt futures transaction price in year t2 under scenario s2 is determined by the non-standardized carbon asset debt futures transaction price that has occurred for the company or project in scenario s2 and year t2, if any; It is the quantity of carbon asset debt futures in year t2 under spot scenario s2 after considering the buying and selling quantities, which is determined by the number of non-standardized carbon asset debt futures transactions that have occurred in the company or project corresponding to scenario s2 and year t2, if any.

[0043] S4. Based on the economic path optimization model, with the buying and selling quantities of spot and futures as optimization variables and the optimal economic path of carbon asset value management as the optimization goal, on the premise of meeting the energy consumption needs of the carbon asset management entity, combined with the preset constraints, determine the optimal buying and selling quantities of spot and futures.

[0044] The preset constraints in this embodiment include carbon emission compliance control constraints, carbon sink increase constraints, carbon sink offset constraints and transaction balance constraints.

[0045] In this embodiment, the economically optimized spot and futures value management paths C1 and C2 of carbon assets, in accordance with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's Climate Change Letter

[2021] No. 492 "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Clearance of Carbon Emission Quotas in the First Compliance Cycle of the National Carbon Emission Trading Market", the carbon sink CCER used for quota clearance offset should meet the following requirements at the same time: (a) the offset ratio shall not exceed 5% of the carbon emission quota to be cleared; (b) it shall not come from emission reduction projects included in the national carbon market quota management.

[0046] when but

[0047] when but

[0048] in, The number of CCERs used to offset the carbon emission quotas is determined by the number of CCERs held by the company or project. When the company or project has a carbon asset, it must supplement (including purchase) carbon sink spot CCER to increase the economic value of the company or project's carbon assets; The spot settlement amount of carbon emission quotas for year t1, which will be distributed by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment according to industry and company; The number of CCERs used to offset the carbon emission quotas is determined by the number of CCERs held by the company or project. When the company or project has a carbon asset, it must supplement (including purchase) carbon sink futures CCER to increase the economic value of the carbon asset of the company or project; It is the forward settlement amount of carbon emission quota for year t2, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will distribute quotas according to industry and company.

[0049] In this embodiment, the economic optimization of carbon asset spot and futures value management paths C1 and C2 includes the following measures:

[0050] Measure 1: Companies or projects purchase carbon quotas based on the spot price of the carbon quotas they hold. and quantity Carbon sink spot price and quantity Carbon asset equity spot price and quantity Carbon quota futures quantity and quantity Carbon sink futures prices and quantity Carbon asset equity futures prices and quantity Conduct standardized or non-standardized purchases and sales in accordance with legal regulations to achieve the goal of optimizing the economic path of carbon asset value management;

[0051] Measure 2: Companies or projects can apply for the spot amount of carbon quotas allocated by the competent authorities according to their actual conditions and needs. and forward carbon quota futures Apply corresponding influence to achieve the goal of optimizing the economic path of carbon asset value management;

[0052] Measure 3: Companies or projects can purchase spot quantities of carbon sinks that meet the corresponding methodology based on their actual conditions and needs. and forward carbon sink futures To manufacture and plan to optimize the economic path of carbon asset value management;

[0053] Measure 4: Companies or projects, based on their actual conditions and needs, can, under the conditions of carbon emission compliance, when the carbon emission quota price is greater than the carbon sink price at the same time, i.e., E s,t ≥R s,t , carbon sinks should fully offset 5% of the carbon emission quota, that is, O t =Cl t 5% to achieve the goal of optimizing the economic path of carbon asset value management;

[0054] Measure 5: Companies or projects manage carbon asset debt according to their actual conditions and needs, and either borrow carbon assets and return them within the agreed time with interest, or lend carbon assets and recover them within the agreed time with interest, so as to optimize the economic path of carbon asset value management.

[0055] The following are some examples:

[0056] A state-owned thermal power generation enterprise A, based on its own energy conservation and emission reduction and technological transformation, has unused carbon quota volume X during the compliance period (total compliance carbon emission quota volume W), and the market price is Q; it realizes carbon sink (CCER) volume Y through corresponding methodology, and it purchases 5% volume WY on the national certified voluntary emission reduction trading platform, and the market price is P, so the economically optimized carbon asset value V of the state-owned thermal power generation enterprise A is:

[0057] V=X·Q+5%W·(QP)-(5%WY)·P

[0058] In order to cope with the impact of global multilateral tariffs on international trade, a high-end smart product of an international technology product company B purchased the equity of an onshore physical carbon asset Z in China five years ago. The transaction price was R to hedge against possible bilateral trade carbon tariffs in the future. The transaction price of the equity of the onshore physical carbon asset rose to R', and a total carbon sink volume U was generated. The market price was K, so the economically optimal carbon asset value V' of the international technology product company B for the project of purchasing the onshore physical carbon asset is:

[0059] V'=U·K+Z·(R ′ -R)

[0060] Embodiment 2: This embodiment is a storage medium on which a computer program that can be executed by a processor is stored. When the computer program is executed, the steps of the economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management in Embodiment 1 are implemented.

[0061] Example 3: This example is an economic path optimization device for carbon asset value management, which has a memory and a processor. The memory stores a computer program that can be executed by the processor. When the computer program is executed, the steps of the economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management in Example 1 are implemented.

Claims

1. An economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management, characterized in that: include: Obtain the energy consumption demand of the carbon asset management entity; Obtain the spot and futures prices and quantities of multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems under various carbon cycle scenarios within a preset time range for the carbon asset management entity, wherein the multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems include carbon emission quotas, carbon sinks, carbon asset equity, and carbon asset debt; Based on the prices and quantities of current and futures of multiple carbon asset definition pricing subsystems under various carbon cycle scenarios within a preset time range, as well as the buying and selling quantities of current and futures, an economic path optimization model is constructed; Based on the economic path optimization model, the buying and selling quantities of spot and futures are used as optimization variables, and the optimal economic path of carbon asset value management is used as the optimization goal. On the premise of meeting the energy consumption needs of the carbon asset management entity, combined with the preset constraints, the optimal buying and selling quantities of spot and futures are determined.

2. The economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management according to claim 1 is characterized by: The carbon cycle scenarios include carbon source, zero carbon and carbon sink.

3. The economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The economic path optimization model includes: C=C1+C2 Among them, C is the economically optimal carbon asset value management path, C1 is the economically optimal carbon asset spot value management path, and C2 is the economically optimal carbon asset futures value management path; Among them, T1 is the spot time range of the model; S1 is the spot carbon cycle scenario set of the model; is the spot unit price of carbon emission quota in year t1 under scenario s1; is the spot quantity of carbon emission quotas in year t1 after trading under scenario s1; is the spot unit price of carbon sinks in year t1 under scenario s1; is the spot quantity of carbon sinks in year t1 after buying and selling under scenario s1; is the spot equity transaction consideration or appraisal price of carbon assets in year t1 under scenario s1; is the number of carbon asset spot equity in year t1 after buying and selling under scenario s1; is the transaction price or appraisal price of the carbon asset spot debt in year t1 under scenario s1; is the number of spot claims on carbon assets in year t1 after buying and selling under scenario s1; Among them, T2 is the futures time range of the model; S2 is the futures carbon cycle scenario set of the model; is the unit price of carbon emission quota futures in year t2 under scenario s2; is the futures quantity of carbon emission quotas in year t2 after trading under scenario s2; is the unit price of carbon sink futures in year t2 under scenario s2; is the futures quantity of carbon sinks in year t2 after buying and selling under scenario s2; is the carbon asset equity futures transaction price in year t2 under spot scenario s2; is the futures quantity of carbon asset equity in year t2 after buying and selling under scenario s2; is the transaction price of carbon asset debt futures in year t2 under scenario s2; It is the futures quantity of carbon asset claims in year t2 after trading under spot scenario s2.

4. The economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management according to claim 1 is characterized by: The constraint conditions include one or more of carbon emission compliance control constraints, carbon sink increase constraints, carbon sink offset constraints and transaction balance constraints.

5. The economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Also includes: Through corresponding measures, the spot quantity of carbon quotas and the futures quantity of carbon quotas allocated by the competent authorities shall be influenced, and the economic costs of the corresponding measures shall be considered.

6. The economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Also includes: The spot quantity of carbon sinks and the forward carbon sink futures quantity are manufactured and planned, and the economic cost of manufacturing and planning carbon sinks is considered.

7. A storage medium having stored thereon a computer program executable by a processor, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed, the steps of the economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management according to any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

8. An economic path optimization device for carbon asset value management, comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program executable by the processor, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed, the steps of the economic path optimization method for carbon asset value management according to any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

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