Carbon efficiency optimization regulation and control method and system based on tourism area carbon emission accounting

Abstract

The invention discloses a carbon efficiency optimization regulation and control method and system based on tourism area carbon emission accounting. The method comprises the following steps: dividing carbon emission types of a to-be-optimized area; carrying out accounting analysis on the carbon emission efficiency based on the carbon emission amount type to obtain an analysis result; on the basis of the analysis result, influence factors of the carbon emission efficiency are judged; and based on the influence factors, completing carbon efficiency strategy optimization of the to-be-optimized region. According to the carbon efficiency measurement and regulation analysis framework based on the carbon emission-carbon sink-economic output coupling relationship in the tourist industry, the key bottleneck and solving path of achieving the dual-carbon target in the tourist industry are planned to be broken through through technical innovation. According to the method, the previous technical method of tourist industry ecological efficiency measurement based on single carbon emission research is broken through, the carbon efficiency connotation is expanded to three links of carbon emission, carbon sink and economic output from the correlation between carbon emission and economic output, and the bottleneck of the current technology is broken through by identifying key departments and key links of carbon efficiency improvement.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of carbon emission optimization and control, and in particular to a carbon efficiency optimization and control method and system based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas. Background Art

[0002] The carbon efficiency assessment and optimization technology of tourism industry is based on the interaction between the economic output of tourism industry and the carbon emission process. It emphasizes the contribution rate of unit carbon emission to economic output. The theoretical basis is ecological efficiency. Ecological efficiency was first proposed by the World Business Commission for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The core connotation is to obtain greater economic output with less ecological and environmental impact, emphasizing the optimal coordination level between ecological and economic benefits. Driven by international organizations such as OECD and WBCSD and many scholars, ecological efficiency has been widely used in various fields such as regions, industries, and enterprises. The inventory method combined with the single ratio method is one of the methods widely used in ecological efficiency measurement. Domestic and foreign research on ecological efficiency has been continuously deepened in content, continuously expanded in fields, and continuously innovated and integrated in methods. It has become an important scientific method to balance economic growth and ecological and economic environmental impacts. After the ecological efficiency of tourism industry was proposed in 2005, it became an important field of ecological efficiency research as an important tool for evaluating the sustainable development of tourism and balancing social welfare such as tourism economic growth and ecological and environmental pollution.

[0003] With global climate change, using carbon emissions as an environmental impact indicator of tourism's ecological efficiency has become a hot topic in carbon efficiency assessment and optimization technology. Gossling (2005) used a single ratio method to compare tourist destinations such as Rocky Mountain National Park in the United States, France, Amsterdam in Denmark, Seychelles, and Siena in Italy, and found that there were large differences in carbon emission efficiency between different sectors of the tourism industry. Industry sectors Transportation and accommodation are the main areas for the application of carbon emission accounting technology. Transportation is the largest sector of tourism carbon emissions and energy consumption. Transportation carbon emission efficiency accounting has once become a hot topic in the accounting of tourism carbon efficiency, mainly focusing on the comparison of carbon efficiency levels of different modes of transportation based on carbon emissions and the application of innovative technologies in tourism transportation carbon emission reduction. As the main sector of tourism carbon emissions, energy consumption and water resource consumption, the accommodation industry is also a key sector for the application of carbon efficiency technology in the tourism industry. Research mainly focuses on improving the energy efficiency of accommodation enterprises. The research on carbon efficiency of tourism industry integrated with carbon sink is still in the exploratory stage, with few achievements. Zha Jianping (2015) used data envelopment analysis to innovatively construct a tourism carbon efficiency evaluation system integrated with carbon sink indicators, and studied the tourism carbon efficiency and emission reduction costs of 26 scenic spots in Chengdu, Sichuan. The relationship between tourism carbon emissions and economic growth, especially carbon emission efficiency technology, has achieved fruitful results, but the carbon efficiency evaluation technology combined with carbon sink is relatively lacking. Existing technologies mainly focus on carbon emission efficiency, carbon sink, carbon emission intensity, etc. The measurement of efficiency and intensity is inversely proportional to each other, but the significance in practice is significantly different. Carbon emission intensity focuses more on regulation. As a carrier of green economic transformation and development, efficiency evaluation technology is more suitable for the development of tourism industry, which can fully take into account the impact of tourism industry on economy and carbon emission and carbon sink. Summary of the invention

[0004] Without solving the technical problems in the above background, the present invention provides the following solutions:

[0005] The carbon efficiency optimization and control method based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas is characterized by the steps of: dividing the carbon emission types of the areas to be optimized;

[0006] Based on the carbon emission type, the carbon emission efficiency is calculated and analyzed to obtain analysis results;

[0007] Based on the analysis results, determine the factors affecting carbon emission efficiency;

[0008] Based on the influencing factors, the carbon efficiency strategy optimization of the area to be optimized is completed.

[0009] Preferably, the method for dividing the carbon emission types includes: using a literature survey method to comprehensively analyze the research progress of carbon peak, carbon neutrality, carbon emissions, and carbon sinks in the tourism industry at home and abroad, and collect practical experience in the development of the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals; based on the practical experience, select representative areas of the areas to be optimized and divide the carbon emission types.

[0010] Preferably, a carbon efficiency measurement model is constructed to analyze the coupling relationship of "carbon emissions-carbon sinks-economic output" to obtain analysis results; the analysis results include accounting for carbon emissions of various sectors in the tourism industry, evaluating carbon sinks, and measuring economic output, which are used to calculate the carbon efficiency per unit of economic output.

[0011] Preferably, the carbon efficiency measurement model includes:

[0012] Energy consumption list method calculation formula:

[0013]

[0014] Where, CE 供给 The total carbon emissions of the tourism research department, CE i is the carbon emission of energy type i, n is the number of energy types, E i is the total amount of energy consumed by type i, μ i and η are the energy standard coal conversion coefficient and standard coal carbon emission coefficient respectively;

[0015] Tourism consumption list method calculation formula:

[0016]

[0017] In the formula, j is a natural number, CE 需求 The total carbon emissions from tourism consumption in the tourism research department, CE j is the carbon emissions of j types of tourism products and services, m is the number of tourism products and services, N j is the consumption quantity of j kinds of tourism products and services, η j is the carbon emission coefficient of j types of tourism products and services;

[0018] Carbon sink accounting formula:

[0019]

[0020] CS m is the carbon sink of tourism sector m, S k is the carbon sink per unit area of ​​ecosystem k, area k is the area of ​​k-type ecosystem, g is the number of ecosystem types;

[0021] The formula for calculating carbon efficiency of tourism industry is as follows:

[0022]

[0023] C 效率 For carbon efficiency in the tourism industry, CE 排放 For tourism carbon emissions, CS 汇 For tourism carbon sink, Y 产出 Economic output for tourism.

[0024] Preferably, based on the analysis results, literature survey and in-depth interview methods are used to obtain factors that may affect carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output; then, statistical and regression analysis methods are used to evaluate the specific impact of these factors on carbon efficiency, so as to determine the driving factors affecting carbon efficiency.

[0025] Preferably, a system dynamics model is constructed, and based on the system dynamics model, the effects of different optimization paths and regulatory measures on carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output are simulated to obtain simulation results; based on the system simulation results, the carbon efficiency strategy optimization is completed.

[0026] The present invention also provides a carbon efficiency optimization and control system based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas, and the system is used to implement the above method, including: a division module, an analysis module, a judgment module and an optimization module;

[0027] The classification module is used to classify the carbon emission types of the area to be optimized;

[0028] The analysis module is used to calculate and analyze the carbon emission efficiency based on the carbon emission type to obtain an analysis result;

[0029] The judgment module is used to judge the influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency based on the analysis results;

[0030] The optimization module is used to optimize the carbon efficiency strategy of the area to be optimized based on the influencing factors.

[0031] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0032] The carbon efficiency measurement and regulation analysis framework constructed by the present invention based on the coupling relationship of "carbon emission-carbon sink-economic output" in the tourism industry intends to break through the key bottlenecks and solutions for the tourism industry to achieve dual carbon goals through technological innovation. The present invention breaks through the previous technical methods of measuring the ecological efficiency of the tourism industry based on single carbon emission research, and expands the connotation of carbon efficiency from the correlation between carbon emissions and economic output to the three links of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output. By identifying the key departments and key links for improving carbon efficiency, it intends to innovate and break through the key bottlenecks and solutions of current technologies. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0033] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.

[0034] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a method flow of an embodiment of the present invention;

[0035] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of key departments and key links for improving carbon efficiency in the tourism industry according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0036] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the driving mechanism analysis of the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0037] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of a tourism industry carbon efficiency driving system model according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0038] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0039] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0040] Embodiment 1

[0041] like Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the method flow of this embodiment, and the steps include:

[0042] S1. Classify the carbon emission types of the areas to be optimized.

[0043] Using the literature survey method, a comprehensive analysis of the research progress of carbon peak, carbon neutrality, carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the tourism industry at home and abroad was conducted to collect practical experience in the development of the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals. In this embodiment, Gannan Prefecture was selected as the illustrative object, where the economic sectors that provide tourism products and services in Gannan Prefecture mainly include scenic spots, tourist hotels, tourist villages and other tourism departments. Using the field research method and questionnaire survey method, 8 representative scenic spots (forest, grassland, wetland, cultural building), 9 tourist hotels (business, resort, rural homestay), 9 tourist villages (tourism benchmark villages, tourism professional villages, tourism well-off villages) and 9 other tourism departments (tourism souvenir shops, tourism comprehensive service areas, tourist car and boat companies, etc.) were selected in Gannan Prefecture. The preliminary screening results are shown in Table 1. The main categories of tourism products and services in Gannan Prefecture include travel, sightseeing, shopping, accommodation, catering and entertainment.

[0044] Table 1

[0045]

[0046] Principles for selecting the number of tourism departments and research departments: Gannan Prefecture has a total of 8 counties and cities. Tourist hotels, tourist villages, tourist souvenir shops and tourist comprehensive service areas are selected according to the distribution of counties and districts. Considering flexibility, each category has 8-10 departments, and 35 research departments are initially selected. There are 53 tourism departments in total, including various tourism departments (4 major categories, 13 minor categories, 17 in total) and Gannan Prefecture Tourism Industry (1).

[0047] S2. Based on the type of carbon emissions, the carbon emission efficiency is calculated and analyzed to obtain the analysis results.

[0048] After the carbon emission types are divided, the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry in the region is measured and analyzed, a carbon efficiency measurement model is constructed, and the coupling relationship of "carbon emission-carbon sink-economic output" is analyzed to obtain the analysis results. The analysis results include calculating the carbon emissions of various sectors of the tourism industry, evaluating the carbon sink, and measuring economic output to calculate the carbon efficiency of unit economic output. The specific steps include:

[0049] (1) Carbon emissions accounting

[0050] Using the inventory method, the supply side and the demand side are combined to calculate the carbon emission data of 53 tourism sectors. According to the attributes of the surveyed sectors, the following are designed:

[0051] ① The questionnaire for supply-side enterprises is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the surveyed departments, i.e. CE, by combining various energy consumption coefficients and carbon emission conversion coefficients through the enterprise energy inventory method. 供给 , see formula (1).

[0052] Energy consumption list method calculation formula:

[0053]

[0054] Where, CE 供给 The total carbon emissions of the tourism research department, CE i is the carbon emission of energy type i, n is the number of energy types, E i is the total amount of energy consumed by type i, μ i and η are the energy standard coal conversion coefficient and standard coal carbon emission coefficient, respectively.

[0055] ② Design a questionnaire for demand-side tourist consumption, calculate carbon emissions based on the carbon emission coefficients of various tourism products and services (travel, sightseeing, shopping, accommodation, catering, entertainment) through the tourist tourism (products and services) consumption list method, and combine the annual tourist volume statistics of each survey department to obtain the annual carbon emission data of each survey department, namely CE 需求 , see formula (2).

[0056] Tourism consumption list method calculation formula:

[0057]

[0058] In the formula, j is a natural number, CE 需求 The total carbon emissions from tourism consumption in the tourism research department, CE j is the carbon emissions of j types of tourism products and services, m is the number of tourism products and services, N j is the consumption quantity of j kinds of tourism products and services, η j is the carbon emission coefficient of j types of tourism products and services.

[0059] Combined with the annual number of tourists in each survey department, the per capita carbon emission coefficient of each survey department is obtained. This embodiment uses the supply-side energy consumption inventory method as the main carbon emission accounting method, and uses the demand-side consumption inventory method to supplement the data that is difficult to obtain from the supply side. In theory, the carbon emission data on both the supply and demand sides should be the same, that is, CE 供给 =CE 需求 Therefore, the uncertainty of carbon emission data can be solved by combining supply and demand.

[0060] Through scale conversion, based on the per capita carbon emission coefficient of tourists in the surveyed departments, and through the annual tourist reception volume of major and minor tourism sectors, the carbon emissions of 13 minor tourism sectors, 4 major tourism sectors, and the tourism industry were calculated respectively.

[0061] (2) Carbon sink accounting

[0062] Using the existing research on carbon sink coefficients of various terrestrial ecosystems, through the combination of field survey method and remote sensing inversion, the area of ​​forest, wetland, grassland, farmland and water ecosystems in each survey department was obtained according to the inventory method, and the carbon sink coefficient (carbon sink per unit area) of various ecosystems in the past ten years was obtained by literature survey method, and the annual carbon sink of each tourism survey department was calculated respectively. The surface net primary productivity data inverted by remote sensing images was used to calibrate the fitted carbon sink data.

[0063] Carbon sink accounting formula:

[0064]

[0065] CS m is the carbon sink of tourism sector m, S k is the carbon sink per unit area of ​​ecosystem k, area k is the area of ​​k-type ecosystem, and g is the number of ecosystem types.

[0066] Using scale conversion, according to the average annual carbon sink of various tourism research departments, scenic spots are scaled by area, and tourist hotels, tourist villages, tourist comprehensive service areas, tourist shopping stores, and tourist vehicle and ship companies are scaled by quantity. The carbon sinks of 13 small tourism departments, 4 large tourism departments, and the tourism industry are calculated respectively.

[0067] (3) Carbon efficiency measurement of tourism industry

[0068] The single ratio method is used to measure the carbon efficiency of tourism departments at all levels in Gannan Prefecture:

[0069] ① Measurement of annual tourism carbon efficiency of each survey department: Based on the annual carbon emission and carbon sink data of each survey department, the annual net carbon emissions of each survey department are obtained, and divided by the economic output to calculate the net carbon emissions per unit economic output of each survey department, that is, the carbon efficiency.

[0070] ②Measurement of annual tourism carbon efficiency of major and minor tourism sectors: As above, the annual carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output data of major and minor tourism sectors are obtained through scale conversion to calculate the carbon efficiency of major and minor tourism sectors.

[0071] ③ Measurement of carbon efficiency of tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture: As above, the carbon emission, carbon sink and economic output data of tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture are obtained through scale conversion, and the carbon emission efficiency data of tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture is calculated.

[0072] The formula for calculating carbon efficiency of tourism industry is as follows:

[0073]

[0074] C 效率 For carbon efficiency in the tourism industry, CE 排放For tourism carbon emissions, CS 汇 For tourism carbon sink, Y 产出 Economic output for tourism.

[0075] (4) Analysis of the coupling relationship between tourism carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output

[0076] According to the carbon efficiency of 53 tourism sectors, the coupling analysis models of "carbon emission-economic output", "carbon sink-economic output" and "carbon emission-carbon sink" were constructed respectively. By comparing the 53 tourism sectors in Gannan Prefecture, the sectors of "high carbon emission-low economic output", "low carbon sink-low economic output" and "high carbon emission-low carbon sink" were identified. Combined with the high and low levels of each link (carbon emission, carbon sink and economic output), the key sectors and key links for improving the carbon efficiency of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry were identified, such as Figure 2 As shown; among them, the upper left corner of the figure is the coupling of high carbon emissions and low carbon sinks, the unfavorable key links are carbon emissions and carbon sinks, and the key sectors that need to be regulated are located in it. The lower left corner of the figure is the coupling of low carbon emissions and low carbon sinks, and the unfavorable key link is carbon sink. The upper right corner of the figure is high carbon emissions and low carbon emissions, and the unfavorable key link is carbon emissions.

[0077] S3. Based on the analysis results, determine the factors affecting carbon emission efficiency.

[0078] Based on the analysis results, literature survey and in-depth interview methods are used to obtain factors that may affect carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output; then, statistical and regression analysis methods are used to evaluate the specific impact of these factors on carbon efficiency, thereby determining the driving factors that affect carbon efficiency. The specific steps include:

[0079] (1) Impact factor screening

[0080] Using literature survey and in-depth interview methods, we sorted out and summarized the existing research results. At the same time, we conducted sampling surveys (open sampling / purposeful sampling / heterogeneous sampling, etc.) and in-depth interviews on the stakeholders of the tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture (government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, tourists, etc.), and used qualitative grounded theory analysis methods to preliminarily identify the influencing factors of carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and economic output in the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals.

[0081] Combining existing research results and theories, the impact factors are initially screened as follows:

[0082] Factors affecting carbon emissions in the tourism industry include: energy structure (percentage of fossil energy), source structure (percentage of local tourists), tourist consumption structure (percentage of sightseeing tourists), travel mode (main mode of travel, length of stay); perception of stakeholders (carbon emission reduction awareness of the government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, and tourists), etc.

[0083] Factors affecting carbon sequestration in the tourism industry: intensity of tourism activities (annual number of tourists per unit area), ecological conditions (NDVI, precipitation, temperature); perception of stakeholders (government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, tourists' awareness of ecological protection), etc.

[0084] Factors affecting tourism economic output: tourism resource attraction (tourists’ ratings of resources), location conditions (transportation cost and distance), tourism capital investment (operating capital investment), economic development level (GDP per capita in the county), tourism labor input (number of employees), etc.

[0085] (2) Identification of driving factors

[0086] Using the multivariate logistic regression model, this embodiment constructs a multivariate logistic regression model of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output in the tourism industry, obtains the influencing factor data of 35 survey departments, determines the direction and contribution of each influencing factor of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output in the tourism industry, and identifies specific driving factors. According to the data structure attributes and connotations of the influencing factors, a regression model is initially constructed based on the following five assumptions:

[0087] Hypothesis 1: Carbon emissions from the tourism industry are affected by energy structure, source structure, tourist consumption structure, and travel mode.

[0088] Hypothesis 2: Carbon emissions from the tourism industry are affected by the carbon reduction awareness of the government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, and tourists.

[0089] Hypothesis 3: Tourism carbon sinks are affected by the intensity of human activities and ecological conditions.

[0090] Hypothesis 4: Carbon sequestration in the tourism industry is affected by the ecological protection awareness of the government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, and tourists.

[0091] Hypothesis 5: The economic output of the tourism industry is affected by tourism resource attraction, location conditions, tourism capital investment, economic development level, and tourism labor input.

[0092] (3) Analysis of driving mechanism

[0093] Using deductive induction, we deeply analyze the effect of various driving factors on carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output, and classify and summarize the combination of social drivers (behavior subject perception drivers), industrial drivers (industrial factor drivers), and environmental drivers (natural ecological environment drivers). Superimposing the mediating effects of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output, combined with the key sectors and key links of improving the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry, we reveal the driving mechanism of improving the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals. Figure 3 .

[0094] Social drive: Stakeholder perception (government, enterprises, farmers, herdsmen, tourists’ awareness of carbon reduction and ecological protection)

[0095] Industry drivers: energy structure (percentage of fossil energy), source structure (percentage of local tourists), tourist consumption structure (percentage of sightseeing tourists), travel mode (main travel mode, length of stay), intensity of tourism activities (annual number of tourists received per unit area), attraction of tourism resources (tourist rating of resources), tourism capital investment (operating capital investment), tourism labor investment (number of employees)

[0096] Environmental drivers: ecological conditions (NDVI, precipitation, temperature), economic development level (GDP per capita in the county).

[0097] S4. Based on the influencing factors, complete the optimization of carbon efficiency strategy in the area to be optimized.

[0098] Construct a system dynamics model, and simulate the impact of different optimization paths and regulatory measures on carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output based on the system dynamics model to obtain simulation results; based on the system simulation results, complete the optimization of carbon efficiency strategy. The specific steps include:

[0099] (1) Construction of a carbon emission efficiency driving system for the tourism industry

[0100] Using the system dynamics model, Vensim7.3.5 software was selected for modeling. The system is divided into four modules, including carbon emission module, carbon sink module, economic output module and driving optimization module. Carbon emissions run through all sectors and consumption processes of tourism supply and demand. Therefore, this embodiment uses the carbon emission module as the basic feedback loop to reflect the dynamic changes in the total net carbon emissions. Carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and economic output are important aspects of carbon efficiency measurement in this embodiment, and their mutual influence forms several causal feedback loops:

[0101] Causal feedback loop 1: Increased tourism revenue improves carbon reduction governance, thereby reducing carbon emissions;

[0102] Causal feedback loop 2: Increased carbon sinks improve the quality of tourism resources and promote increased tourism revenue;

[0103] Causal feedback loop 3: Increased carbon sinks offset carbon emissions and promote a reduction in net carbon emissions.

[0104] At the same time, this embodiment also sets up a carbon emission efficiency driving optimization module. When income decreases or carbon emissions increase or carbon sinks decrease, the optimization and regulation module will trend each module to undergo a new round of changes. Therefore, a complex feedback loop is formed between the carbon efficiency, carbon emissions, carbon sinks, economic output and driving optimization of the tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture. This embodiment constructs a carbon efficiency driving system for the tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture based on the system dynamics model ( Figure 4), based on the causal relationship and contribution of driving factors, combined with field research, statistical analysis, expert interviews and other methods, quantify the feedback relationship between variables, write equations, and complete model testing and correction.

[0105] (2) Model improvement path design and parameter setting

[0106] Through the carbon efficiency driven system model of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry, six scenarios were simulated: carbon peak with carbon emission reduction priority, carbon neutrality with carbon emission reduction priority, carbon peak with economic output priority, carbon neutrality with economic output priority, carbon peak with carbon sink priority, and carbon neutrality with carbon sink priority. Based on this, this study preliminarily designed eight improvement paths.

[0107] 8 improvement paths: carbon compensation path for tourism actors, carbon tax and carbon price path for tourism products, tourist structure optimization path, low-carbon tourism product design path, tourism industry structure optimization path, regional ecological comprehensive management path, tourism energy structure adjustment path, and tourism capital and labor optimization path.

[0108] Through the above six scenarios, the driving factors of each key link are further transformed into external variables of the tourism industry's carbon efficiency driving system. Reasonable parameter values ​​are set by referring to the forecasts, plans and actual data of the government and research institutions.

[0109] (3) Optimize the design of control strategies

[0110] ① Based on the system dynamics model analysis, the evolution trends of carbon emissions, carbon sinks, economic output and the corresponding carbon emission efficiency, carbon sink efficiency and net carbon emission efficiency of Gannan Prefecture’s tourism industry are determined, and the carbon efficiency improvement effects and the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in Gannan Prefecture’s tourism industry under different paths are quantitatively evaluated. The optimal path for improving the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry is quantitatively analyzed from the scale of Gannan Prefecture’s tourism industry, the scale of tourism departments (tourist attractions, tourist hotels, tourist villages, and other departments), and the scale of tourism department subcategories (13 subcategories, see Table 1 for details).

[0111] ② Using in-depth interviews and deductive induction methods, we analyze the corresponding relationship between the decision-making of multiple stakeholders in the tourism industry (government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, tourists, etc.) and social-driven, industrial-driven and environmental-driven factors in the key departments and key links of improving the carbon efficiency of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry, and design corresponding optimization and regulation measures from different scales of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry, so as to systematically put forward targeted and operational policy recommendations.

[0112] Embodiment 2

[0113] This embodiment also provides a carbon efficiency optimization and control system based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas, including: a division module, an analysis module, a judgment module and an optimization module; the division module is used to divide the carbon emission types of the areas to be optimized; the analysis module is used to calculate and analyze the carbon emission efficiency based on the carbon emission types to obtain analysis results; the judgment module is used to judge the influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency based on the analysis results; the optimization module is used to complete the carbon efficiency strategy optimization of the areas to be optimized based on the influencing factors.

[0114] First, use the classification module to classify the carbon emission types of the areas to be optimized.

[0115] Using the literature survey method, a comprehensive analysis of the research progress of carbon peak, carbon neutrality, carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the tourism industry at home and abroad was conducted to collect practical experience in the development of the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals. In this embodiment, Gannan Prefecture was selected as the illustrative object, where the economic sectors that provide tourism products and services in Gannan Prefecture mainly include scenic spots, tourist hotels, tourist villages and other tourism departments. Using the field research method and questionnaire survey method, 8 representative scenic spots (forest, grassland, wetland, cultural building), 9 tourist hotels (business, resort, rural homestay), 9 tourist villages (tourism benchmark villages, tourism professional villages, tourism well-off villages) and 9 other tourism departments (tourism souvenir shops, tourism comprehensive service areas, tourist car and boat companies, etc.) were selected in Gannan Prefecture. The preliminary screening results are shown in Table 1. The main categories of tourism products and services in Gannan Prefecture include travel, sightseeing, shopping, accommodation, catering and entertainment.

[0116] Principles for selecting the number of tourism departments and research departments: Gannan Prefecture has a total of 8 counties and cities. Tourist hotels, tourist villages, tourist souvenir shops and tourist comprehensive service areas are selected according to the distribution of counties and districts. Considering flexibility, each category has 8-10 departments, and 35 research departments are initially selected. There are 53 tourism departments in total, including various tourism departments (4 major categories, 13 minor categories, 17 in total) and Gannan Prefecture Tourism Industry (1).

[0117] The analysis module then calculates and analyzes the carbon emission efficiency based on the carbon emission type to obtain the analysis results.

[0118] After the carbon emission types are divided, the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry in the region is measured and analyzed, a carbon efficiency measurement model is constructed, and the coupling relationship of "carbon emission-carbon sink-economic output" is analyzed to obtain the analysis results. The analysis results include calculating the carbon emissions of various sectors of the tourism industry, evaluating the carbon sink, and measuring economic output to calculate the carbon efficiency of unit economic output. The specific steps include:

[0119] (1) Carbon emissions accounting

[0120] Using the inventory method, the supply side and the demand side are combined to calculate the carbon emission data of 53 tourism sectors. According to the attributes of the surveyed sectors, the following are designed:

[0121] ① The questionnaire for supply-side enterprises is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the surveyed departments, i.e. CE, by combining various energy consumption coefficients and carbon emission conversion coefficients through the enterprise energy inventory method. 供给 , see formula (5).

[0122] Energy consumption list method calculation formula:

[0123]

[0124] Where, CE 供给 The total carbon emissions of the tourism research department, CE i is the carbon emission of energy type i, n is the number of energy types, E i is the total amount of energy consumed by type i, μ i and η are the energy standard coal conversion coefficient and standard coal carbon emission coefficient, respectively.

[0125] ② Design a questionnaire for demand-side tourist consumption, calculate carbon emissions based on the carbon emission coefficients of various tourism products and services (travel, sightseeing, shopping, accommodation, catering, entertainment) through the tourist tourism (products and services) consumption list method, and combine the annual tourist volume statistics of each survey department to obtain the annual carbon emission data of each survey department, namely CE 需求 , see formula (6).

[0126] Tourism consumption list method calculation formula:

[0127]

[0128] In the formula, j is a natural number, CE 需求 The total carbon emissions from tourism consumption in the tourism research department, CE j is the carbon emissions of j types of tourism products and services, m is the number of tourism products and services, N j is the consumption quantity of j kinds of tourism products and services, η j is the carbon emission coefficient of j types of tourism products and services.

[0129] Combined with the annual number of tourists in each survey department, the per capita carbon emission coefficient of each survey department is obtained. This embodiment uses the supply-side energy consumption inventory method as the main carbon emission accounting method, and uses the demand-side consumption inventory method to supplement the data that is difficult to obtain from the supply side. In theory, the carbon emission data on both the supply and demand sides should be the same, that is, CE 供给 =CE 需求 Therefore, the uncertainty of carbon emission data can be solved by combining supply and demand.

[0130] Through scale conversion, based on the per capita carbon emission coefficient of tourists in the surveyed departments, and through the annual tourist reception volume of major and minor tourism sectors, the carbon emissions of 13 minor tourism sectors, 4 major tourism sectors, and the tourism industry were calculated respectively.

[0131] (2) Carbon sink accounting

[0132] Using the existing research on carbon sink coefficients of various terrestrial ecosystems, through the combination of field survey method and remote sensing inversion, the area of ​​forest, wetland, grassland, farmland and water ecosystems in each survey department was obtained according to the inventory method, and the carbon sink coefficient (carbon sink per unit area) of various ecosystems in the past ten years was obtained by literature survey method, and the annual carbon sink of each tourism survey department was calculated respectively. The surface net primary productivity data inverted by remote sensing images was used to calibrate the fitted carbon sink data.

[0133] Carbon sink accounting formula:

[0134]

[0135] CS m is the carbon sink of tourism sector m, S k is the carbon sink per unit area of ​​ecosystem k, area k is the area of ​​k-type ecosystem, and g is the number of ecosystem types.

[0136] Using scale conversion, according to the average annual carbon sink of various tourism research departments, scenic spots are scaled by area, and tourist hotels, tourist villages, tourist comprehensive service areas, tourist shopping stores, and tourist vehicle and ship companies are scaled by quantity. The carbon sinks of 13 small tourism departments, 4 large tourism departments, and the tourism industry are calculated respectively.

[0137] (3) Carbon efficiency measurement of tourism industry

[0138] The single ratio method is used to measure the carbon efficiency of tourism departments at all levels in Gannan Prefecture:

[0139] ① Measurement of annual tourism carbon efficiency of each survey department: Based on the annual carbon emission and carbon sink data of each survey department, the annual net carbon emissions of each survey department are obtained, and divided by the economic output to calculate the net carbon emissions per unit economic output of each survey department, that is, the carbon efficiency.

[0140] ②Measurement of annual tourism carbon efficiency of major and minor tourism sectors: As above, the annual carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output data of major and minor tourism sectors are obtained through scale conversion to calculate the carbon efficiency of major and minor tourism sectors.

[0141] ③ Measurement of carbon efficiency of tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture: As above, the carbon emission, carbon sink and economic output data of tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture are obtained through scale conversion, and the carbon emission efficiency data of tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture is calculated.

[0142] The formula for calculating carbon efficiency of tourism industry is as follows:

[0143]

[0144] C 效率 For carbon efficiency in the tourism industry, CE 排放 For tourism carbon emissions, CS 汇 For tourism carbon sink, Y 产出 Economic output for tourism.

[0145] (4) Analysis of the coupling relationship between tourism carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output

[0146] According to the carbon efficiency of 53 tourism sectors, the coupling analysis models of "carbon emission-economic output", "carbon sink-economic output" and "carbon emission-carbon sink" were constructed respectively. By comparing the 53 tourism sectors in Gannan Prefecture, the sectors of "high carbon emission-low economic output", "low carbon sink-low economic output" and "high carbon emission-low carbon sink" were identified. Combined with the high and low levels of each link (carbon emission, carbon sink and economic output), the key sectors and key links for improving the carbon efficiency of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry were identified, such as Figure 2 As shown; among them, the upper left corner of the figure is the coupling of high carbon emissions and low carbon sinks, the unfavorable key links are carbon emissions and carbon sinks, and the key sectors that need to be regulated are located in it. The lower left corner of the figure is the coupling of low carbon emissions and low carbon sinks, and the unfavorable key link is carbon sink. The upper right corner of the figure is high carbon emissions and low carbon emissions, and the unfavorable key link is carbon emissions.

[0147] The judgment module judges the factors affecting carbon emission efficiency based on the analysis results.

[0148] Based on the analysis results, literature survey and in-depth interview methods are used to obtain factors that may affect carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output; then, statistical and regression analysis methods are used to evaluate the specific impact of these factors on carbon efficiency, thereby determining the driving factors that affect carbon efficiency. The specific steps include:

[0149] (1) Impact factor screening

[0150] Using literature survey and in-depth interview methods, we sorted out and summarized the existing research results. At the same time, we conducted sampling surveys (open sampling / purposeful sampling / heterogeneous sampling, etc.) and in-depth interviews on the stakeholders of the tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture (government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, tourists, etc.), and used qualitative grounded theory analysis methods to preliminarily identify the influencing factors of carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and economic output in the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals.

[0151] Combining existing research results and theories, the impact factors are initially screened as follows:

[0152] Factors affecting carbon emissions in the tourism industry include: energy structure (percentage of fossil energy), source structure (percentage of local tourists), tourist consumption structure (percentage of sightseeing tourists), travel mode (main mode of travel, length of stay); perception of stakeholders (carbon emission reduction awareness of the government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, and tourists), etc.

[0153] Factors affecting carbon sequestration in the tourism industry: intensity of tourism activities (annual number of tourists per unit area), ecological conditions (NDVI, precipitation, temperature); perception of stakeholders (government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, tourists' awareness of ecological protection), etc.

[0154] Factors affecting tourism economic output: tourism resource attraction (tourists’ ratings of resources), location conditions (transportation cost and distance), tourism capital investment (operating capital investment), economic development level (GDP per capita in the county), tourism labor input (number of employees), etc.

[0155] (2) Identification of driving factors

[0156] Using the multivariate logistic regression model, this embodiment constructs a multivariate logistic regression model of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output in the tourism industry, obtains the influencing factor data of 35 survey departments, determines the direction and contribution of each influencing factor of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output in the tourism industry, and identifies specific driving factors. According to the data structure attributes and connotations of the influencing factors, a regression model is initially constructed based on the following five assumptions:

[0157] Hypothesis 1: Carbon emissions from the tourism industry are affected by energy structure, source structure, tourist consumption structure, and travel mode.

[0158] Hypothesis 2: Carbon emissions from the tourism industry are affected by the carbon reduction awareness of the government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, and tourists.

[0159] Hypothesis 3: Tourism carbon sinks are affected by the intensity of human activities and ecological conditions.

[0160] Hypothesis 4: Carbon sequestration in the tourism industry is affected by the ecological protection awareness of the government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, and tourists.

[0161] Hypothesis 5: The economic output of the tourism industry is affected by tourism resource attraction, location conditions, tourism capital investment, economic development level, and tourism labor input.

[0162] (3) Analysis of driving mechanism

[0163] Using deductive induction, we deeply analyze the effect of various driving factors on carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output, and classify and summarize the combination of social drivers (behavior subject perception drivers), industrial drivers (industrial factor drivers), and environmental drivers (natural ecological environment drivers). Superimposing the mediating effects of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output, combined with the key sectors and key links of improving the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry, we reveal the driving mechanism of improving the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals. Figure 3 .

[0164] Social drive: Stakeholder perception (government, enterprises, farmers, herdsmen, tourists’ awareness of carbon reduction and ecological protection)

[0165] Industry drivers: energy structure (percentage of fossil energy), source structure (percentage of local tourists), tourist consumption structure (percentage of sightseeing tourists), travel mode (main travel mode, length of stay), intensity of tourism activities (annual number of tourists received per unit area), attraction of tourism resources (tourist rating of resources), tourism capital investment (operating capital investment), tourism labor investment (number of employees)

[0166] Environmental drivers: ecological conditions (NDVI, precipitation, temperature), economic development level (GDP per capita in the county).

[0167] The optimization module optimizes the carbon efficiency strategy of the area to be optimized based on the influencing factors.

[0168] Construct a system dynamics model, and simulate the impact of different optimization paths and regulatory measures on carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output based on the system dynamics model to obtain simulation results; based on the system simulation results, complete the optimization of carbon efficiency strategy. The specific steps include:

[0169] (1) Construction of a carbon emission efficiency driving system for the tourism industry

[0170] Using the system dynamics model, Vensim7.3.5 software was selected for modeling. The system is divided into four modules, including carbon emission module, carbon sink module, economic output module and driving optimization module. Carbon emissions run through all sectors and consumption processes of tourism supply and demand. Therefore, this embodiment uses the carbon emission module as the basic feedback loop to reflect the dynamic changes in the total net carbon emissions. Carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and economic output are important aspects of carbon efficiency measurement in this embodiment, and their mutual influence forms several causal feedback loops:

[0171] Causal feedback loop 1: Increased tourism revenue improves carbon reduction governance, thereby reducing carbon emissions;

[0172] Causal feedback loop 2: Increased carbon sinks improve the quality of tourism resources and promote increased tourism revenue;

[0173] Causal feedback loop 3: Increased carbon sinks offset carbon emissions and promote a reduction in net carbon emissions.

[0174] At the same time, this embodiment also sets up a carbon emission efficiency driving optimization module. When income decreases or carbon emissions increase or carbon sinks decrease, the optimization and regulation module will trend each module to undergo a new round of changes. Therefore, a complex feedback loop is formed between the carbon efficiency, carbon emissions, carbon sinks, economic output and driving optimization of the tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture. This embodiment constructs a carbon efficiency driving system for the tourism industry in Gannan Prefecture based on the system dynamics model ( Figure 4 ), based on the causal relationship and contribution of driving factors, combined with field research, statistical analysis, expert interviews and other methods, quantify the feedback relationship between variables, write equations, and complete model testing and correction.

[0175] (2) Model improvement path design and parameter setting

[0176] Through the carbon efficiency driven system model of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry, six scenarios were simulated: carbon peak with carbon emission reduction priority, carbon neutrality with carbon emission reduction priority, carbon peak with economic output priority, carbon neutrality with economic output priority, carbon peak with carbon sink priority, and carbon neutrality with carbon sink priority. Based on this, this study preliminarily designed eight improvement paths.

[0177] 8 improvement paths: carbon compensation path for tourism actors, carbon tax and carbon price path for tourism products, tourist structure optimization path, low-carbon tourism product design path, tourism industry structure optimization path, regional ecological comprehensive management path, tourism energy structure adjustment path, and tourism capital and labor optimization path.

[0178] Through the above six scenarios, the driving factors of each key link are further transformed into external variables of the tourism industry's carbon efficiency driving system. Reasonable parameter values ​​are set by referring to the forecasts, plans and actual data of the government and research institutions.

[0179] (3) Optimize the design of control strategies

[0180] ① Based on the system dynamics model analysis, the evolution trends of carbon emissions, carbon sinks, economic output and the corresponding carbon emission efficiency, carbon sink efficiency and net carbon emission efficiency of Gannan Prefecture’s tourism industry are determined, and the carbon efficiency improvement effects and the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in Gannan Prefecture’s tourism industry under different paths are quantitatively evaluated. The optimal path for improving the carbon efficiency of the tourism industry is quantitatively analyzed from the scale of Gannan Prefecture’s tourism industry, the scale of tourism departments (tourist attractions, tourist hotels, tourist villages, and other departments), and the scale of tourism department subcategories (13 subcategories, see Table 1 for details).

[0181] ② Using in-depth interviews and deductive induction methods, we analyze the corresponding relationship between the decision-making of multiple stakeholders in the tourism industry (government, enterprises, farmers and herdsmen, tourists, etc.) and social-driven, industrial-driven and environmental-driven factors in the key departments and key links of improving the carbon efficiency of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry, and design corresponding optimization and regulation measures from different scales of Gannan Prefecture's tourism industry, so as to systematically put forward targeted and operational policy recommendations.

[0182] The embodiments described above are only descriptions of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Without departing from the design spirit of the present invention, various modifications and improvements made to the technical solutions of the present invention by ordinary technicians in this field should all fall within the protection scope determined by the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A carbon efficiency optimization and control method based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas, characterized in that the steps include: Classify the carbon emission types of the areas to be optimized; Based on the carbon emission type, the carbon emission efficiency is calculated and analyzed to obtain analysis results; Based on the analysis results, determine the factors affecting carbon emission efficiency; Based on the influencing factors, the carbon efficiency strategy optimization of the area to be optimized is completed.

2. The carbon efficiency optimization and control method based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The method for classifying the carbon emission types includes: using the literature survey method to comprehensively analyze the research progress of carbon peak, carbon neutrality, carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the tourism industry at home and abroad, and collecting practical experience in the development of the tourism industry under the dual carbon goals; based on the practical experience, select representative areas of the areas to be optimized and classify the carbon emission types.

3. The carbon efficiency optimization and control method based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas according to claim 1 is characterized in that: A carbon efficiency measurement model is constructed to analyze the coupling relationship of "carbon emission-carbon sink-economic output" and obtain analysis results; the analysis results include accounting for carbon emissions of various sectors in the tourism industry, evaluating carbon sinks, and measuring economic output to calculate the carbon efficiency per unit of economic output.

4. The carbon efficiency optimization and control method based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The carbon efficiency measurement model includes: Energy consumption list method calculation formula: Where, CE 供给 The total carbon emissions of the tourism research department, CE i is the carbon emission of energy type i, n is the number of energy types, E i is the total amount of energy consumed by type i, μ i and η are the energy standard coal conversion coefficient and standard coal carbon emission coefficient respectively; Tourism consumption list method calculation formula: In the formula, j is a natural number, CE 需求 The total carbon emissions from tourism consumption in the tourism research department, CE j is the carbon emissions of j types of tourism products and services, m is the number of tourism products and services, N j is the consumption quantity of j types of tourism products and services, η j is the carbon emission coefficient of j types of tourism products and services; Carbon sink accounting formula: CS m is the carbon sink of tourism sector m, S k is the carbon sink per unit area of ​​ecosystem k, area k is the area of ​​k-type ecosystem, g is the number of ecosystem types; The formula for calculating carbon efficiency of tourism industry is as follows: C 效率 For carbon efficiency in the tourism industry, CE 排放 For tourism carbon emissions, CS 汇 For tourism carbon sink, Y 产出 Economic output for tourism.

5. The carbon efficiency optimization and control method based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Based on the analysis results, literature survey and in-depth interview methods are used to obtain factors that may affect carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output; then, statistical and regression analysis methods are used to evaluate the specific impact of these factors on carbon efficiency, thereby determining the driving factors affecting carbon efficiency.

6. The carbon efficiency optimization and control method based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Constructing a system dynamics model, simulating the effects of different optimization paths and regulatory measures on carbon emissions, carbon sinks and economic output based on the system dynamics model, and obtaining simulation results; Based on the system simulation results, complete the carbon efficiency strategy optimization.

7. A carbon efficiency optimization and control system based on carbon emission accounting in tourist areas, the system being used to implement the method described in any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: include: Division module, analysis module, judgment module and optimization module; The classification module is used to classify the carbon emission types of the area to be optimized; The analysis module is used to calculate and analyze the carbon emission efficiency based on the carbon emission type to obtain an analysis result; The judgment module is used to judge the influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency based on the analysis results; The optimization module is used to optimize the carbon efficiency strategy of the area to be optimized based on the influencing factors.

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