Power optical cable life cycle prediction management method, system, device and medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a power optical cable life cycle prediction management method, system and device, and a medium. The method comprises the steps of obtaining actual operation state information of a power optical cable; collecting power optical cable operation historical data, finding out factors corresponding to power optical cable faults through causal analysis based on the power optical cable operation historical data, and weights corresponding to the factors according to relative importance; calculating and predicting the residual life of the power optical cable according to the actual operation state information of the power optical cable by taking the factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault and the weight of each factor as reference; and calculating the life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and making an operation maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy of the power optical cable by minimizing the life cycle cost of the power optical cable and combining the residual life of the power optical cable. According to the method, the service life of the power optical cable OPGW can be comprehensively and accurately evaluated and predicted, planning, maintenance and transformation decisions of a power transmission line are objectively guided, and the life cycle cost is reduced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power optical cables, and in particular relates to a life cycle prediction management method, system, equipment and medium for power optical cables. Background Art

[0002] Power optical cable OPGW (Optical Fiber Composite Overhead Ground Wire) is a special cable used in power systems. OPGW is a cable that has an optical fiber unit built into the stranded wire and is installed on the top frame of the ground wire of a high-voltage overhead transmission line. It has both the functions of a traditional overhead ground wire and the capabilities of optical fiber communication. The basic structure of OPGW consists of a cable core containing optical fiber and twisted metal wires. The optical fiber provides a transmission channel, and the metal wire is usually made of aluminum-clad steel wire or aluminum alloy wire. The steel component mainly provides mechanical strength, and the aluminum component is mainly used to carry short-circuit current.

[0003] Optical cable is one of the main components of overhead transmission lines, accounting for a large proportion of the investment in overhead transmission line construction. The current theoretical design life of OPGW is 30 years. OPGW must match the service life of the ground wire on the same tower. Currently, there is no OPGW with such a long life. From an economic point of view, if the life of OPGW does not match that of other material components of the line, it will cause huge waste. For OPGW optical cables, there is currently no mature life assessment and prediction method at home and abroad.

[0004] Up to now, the optical cables laid in my country in the early stage have been in operation for more than 20 years. In the construction of optical cable network, the cost of optical cable line engineering accounts for about 70% of the total network construction cost. If the optical cable line is replaced blindly according to the design life, it will cause a huge waste of resources and is not scientific and targeted. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the life of optical cable performance, which can not only effectively solve the problem of incomplete consideration of influencing factors and weak guidance of evaluation results when comprehensively evaluating optical cable performance, but also be more conducive to planning optimization and minimizing costs in network construction. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to address the problems in the above-mentioned prior art and provide a life cycle prediction management method, system, equipment and medium for power optical cables, which can comprehensively and accurately evaluate and predict the life of power optical cables OPGW, objectively guide the planning, maintenance and transformation decisions of transmission lines, and reduce life cycle costs.

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention has the following technical solutions: In a first aspect, a life cycle prediction management method for a power optical cable is provided, comprising: Obtain the actual operating status information of the power optical cable; Collect the historical operation data of the power optical cable, and find out the factors corresponding to the power optical cable failure through cause-and-effect analysis based on the historical operation data of the power optical cable, as well as the weights corresponding to each factor according to its relative importance; Taking the factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault and the weights of each factor as reference, and according to the actual operation status information of the power optical cable, the remaining life of the power optical cable is calculated and predicted; Calculate the life cycle cost of the power optical cable, minimize the life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable in combination with the remaining life of the power optical cable.

[0007] As a preferred solution, the actual operating status information of the power optical cable is obtained through an optical cable automatic monitoring system. The optical cable automatic monitoring system monitors the power optical cable in real time, analyzes alarm information based on monitoring data, initiates corresponding tests, locates and repairs the fault, and compresses the fault duration.

[0008] As a preferred solution, when the factors corresponding to the power optical cable failure are found through causal analysis based on the power optical cable operation history data, the failure modes that cause the power optical cable failure and the factors corresponding to each failure mode respectively include: Fatigue fracture: During the operation of the power optical cable, under the vibration of wind, the stress generated by the tension is concentrated at the top of the crack, causing the crack to gradually expand radially; Fiber overload breakage: Excessive tension caused by the load causes the cable to sag too much or the fiber to break due to insufficient excess length; Aging and damage of coating material: The temperature rise in the optical unit exceeds the temperature that the optical fiber coating material can withstand; Deformation or damage of materials and structures: affected by short circuit and lightning current; Chemical corrosion: Corrosion caused by chemical environment to power optical cables.

[0009] As a preferred solution, the hierarchical analysis method is used to determine the weights of each factor according to its relative importance; The analytic hierarchy process includes: Determine an analysis object and a set of evaluation factors, wherein the analysis object is a power optical cable fault, and the evaluation factors are factors that cause the power optical cable fault; Construct the power optical cable fault judgment matrix by analyzing the objects and judging factors. The weights of various factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault are obtained through the power optical cable fault evaluation matrix; The obtained weights of each factor are output after consistency check.

[0010] As a preferred solution, in the step of formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or the retirement strategy of the power optical cable, the operation and maintenance strategy or the retirement strategy of the power optical cable is formulated according to the defect coefficient, the defect coefficient is determined by the defect level and the number of defects, and the number of defects corresponding to different defect coefficients is as follows: The defect coefficient is 1.0, and the minimum and maximum values ​​of the corresponding defect times are 0 and 0, respectively; The defect coefficient is 1.05, and the minimum value of the corresponding defect number is 0 and the maximum value is 1; The defect coefficient is 1.1, the minimum value of the corresponding defect number is 1 and the maximum value is 2; or, the minimum value of the corresponding defect number is 2 and the maximum value is 5; The defect coefficient is 1.2, and the minimum number of corresponding defects is 3 and the maximum number is 100; The state coefficient of the power optical cable corresponds to the defect coefficient. The operation and maintenance strategy under different state coefficients is formulated according to the following relationship: The status factor is 1.05, corresponding to continuous maintenance; The state coefficient is 1.1, which corresponds to broken strand repair; or, corresponds to increased fiber attenuation; The state factor is 1.2, which corresponds to excessive fiber attenuation.

[0011] As a preferred solution, the calculation of the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes calculating decision-making cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and scrapping cost.

[0012] As a preferred solution, the decision-making cost includes the costs incurred during the pre-planning, access system research, project site selection and feasibility study; Design costs include management, program design, special program research, finished product publishing, and technical service costs; Construction costs include equipment purchase and installation costs, construction engineering and material costs, labor and management costs, and taxes; Operation and maintenance costs include the cost of maintaining the substation’s functions from the time it is put into operation until it is scrapped; Decommissioning costs include the costs of decommissioning and regenerating transmission projects.

[0013] As a preferred solution, in the step of formulating an operation and maintenance strategy or a retirement strategy for the power optical cable, the operation and maintenance strategy or the retirement strategy is formulated in accordance with the full life cycle objectives of the power optical cable to achieve functional matching, life coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

[0014] In a second aspect, a life cycle prediction management system for a power optical cable is provided, comprising: An operation information acquisition module is used to obtain the actual operation status information of the power optical cable; The fault factor analysis module is used to collect the historical operation data of the power optical cable, and find out the factors corresponding to the power optical cable faults through causal analysis based on the historical operation data of the power optical cable, as well as the weights corresponding to each factor according to the relative importance; The remaining life prediction module is used to calculate and predict the remaining life of the power optical cable based on the factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault and the weights of each factor and the actual operating status information of the power optical cable; The management strategy formulation module is used to calculate the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable in combination with the remaining life of the power optical cable with the minimum full life cycle cost of the power optical cable.

[0015] As a preferred solution, when the management strategy formulation module calculates the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes calculating decision costs, design costs, construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, and scrapping costs.

[0016] As a preferred solution, when formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable, the management strategy formulation module formulates the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy in accordance with the full life cycle goals of the power optical cable, so as to achieve functional matching, life coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

[0017] In a third aspect, an electronic device is provided, comprising a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is configured to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable.

[0018] In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, and when the at least one instruction is executed by a processor, the life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable is implemented.

[0019] Compared with the prior art, the first aspect of the present invention has at least the following beneficial effects: After the power optical cable is built and put into operation, some problems will appear after a certain period of operation. Scientific prediction and evaluation of the status and service life of the power optical cable can help us understand and grasp the current operating status and safety of the power optical cable, and then predict the future operating status and load-bearing performance of the line. In the construction of the optical cable network, the cost of the optical cable line project accounts for about 70% of the total network construction cost. If the optical cable line is blindly replaced according to the design life, it will cause a huge waste of resources. At the same time, in order to meet the service quality requirements of the optical communication system, it is necessary to understand the operating status of the optical cable at any time, replace it in time before deterioration occurs, or obtain fault information in time when the optical cable fails, accurately determine the geographical location of the fault point, and eliminate the fault in time to ensure the transmission quality of the line. In the past, performance evaluations of power optical cables mostly relied on subjective speculation, lacking a way to objectively describe subjective judgments. The present invention uses the factors corresponding to power optical cable failures and the weights of each factor as a reference, and calculates and predicts the remaining life of the power optical cable based on the actual operating status information of the power optical cable. The obtained data results have more objective reference value. By calculating the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable is minimized, and combined with the remaining life of the power optical cable, an operation and maintenance strategy or a retirement strategy for the power optical cable is formulated. This not only takes into account the investment of the power grid construction project itself, but also can conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the operation and maintenance cost, service life, safety and reliability during the service period after the project is put into operation, so as to minimize the full life cycle cost, with good social and economic benefits.

[0020] It can be understood that the beneficial effects of the second to fourth aspects mentioned above can be found in the relevant description of the first aspect mentioned above, and will not be repeated here. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative labor.

[0022] Figure 1 Flow chart of the life cycle prediction management method of power optical cables according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 The embodiment of the present invention calculates the life cycle cost of the power optical cable to formulate an operation and maintenance or retirement strategy architecture diagram; Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the basic framework of the core content of the full life cycle design of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the composition of the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 5 Schematic diagram of the calculation and prediction of the remaining service life of a power optical cable according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0023] In the following description, specific details such as specific system structures, technologies, etc. are provided for the purpose of illustration rather than limitation, so as to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present application. However, it should be clear to those skilled in the art that the present application may also be implemented in other embodiments without these specific details. In other cases, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted to prevent unnecessary details from obstructing the description of the present application.

[0024] See also Figure 1 The embodiment of the present invention provides a life cycle prediction management method for a power optical cable, comprising the following steps: S101, obtaining actual operating status information of the power optical cable; S102, collecting historical operation data of the power optical cable, and finding out factors corresponding to power optical cable failures and weights corresponding to the factors according to their relative importance through causal analysis based on the historical operation data of the power optical cable; S103, using the factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault and the weights of the factors as references, and according to the actual operating status information of the power optical cable, calculating and predicting the remaining life of the power optical cable; S104. Calculate the life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate an operation and maintenance strategy or a retirement strategy for the power optical cable based on the minimum life cycle cost of the power optical cable and the remaining life of the power optical cable.

[0025] The embodiment of the present invention establishes a cable life calculation and evaluation model through theoretical research and experimental analysis, and realizes the evaluability and predictability of the OPGW cable life. It can not only evaluate and predict the life of old OPGW cables for power communication lines, but also predict and evaluate the life of newly built OPGW lines. For overhead communication lines, due to their own characteristics and limitations, the present invention proposes the concept and method of applying life cycle management, which can save corridor resources, increase line transmission capacity, and reduce the overall construction and operation costs while ensuring the reliable function of the transmission line.

[0026] The application of life assessment and prediction technology at home and abroad covers not only the life assessment of the entire product, but also the life assessment of metal, non-metal and other materials. For OPGW optical cables, there is currently no mature life assessment and prediction method at home and abroad. Life assessment technology is used in the research of transmission line material components. For example, the conductor is one of the main components of the overhead transmission line, which is suspended on the tower through insulators. The conductor runs in the atmosphere all year round and is affected by meteorological conditions such as wind, ice, snow and temperature changes for a long time. It is subjected to the effect of changing tension and is also corroded by dirt in the air. Similar to OPGW. Therefore, in addition to having good electrical conductivity, the conductor must also have sufficient mechanical strength and corrosion resistance.

[0027] The steel core of the conductor bears the main tensile force, and the aluminum layer also shares part of the tensile force. Since the service life of the conductor is usually related to several of its mechanical performance parameters, the torsional toughness of the outer steel core and the breaking force of the conductor are important indicators that affect the life of the conductor. If the test data is used, the current state of the conductor can be directly judged based on the test results; however, it is difficult to sample the conductor in operation. In order to accurately predict the life of the conductor, the method of online detection of the loss of the galvanized layer of the conductor is used, and then the life model of the conductor is established with the help of related methods. The main factors affecting the life of the conductor are corrosion and fatigue, and the corrosion life model and fatigue life model can be established. Therefore, the application of life assessment technology in conductors can be used for reference.

[0028] The application environment of OPGW will be different in different regions, such as strong winds, frequent thunderstorms, heavy ice, humidity, high pollution, severe corrosion, etc. In addition, due to factors such as unreasonable product structure design, performance defects, inappropriate construction technology, and human damage, OPGW will have various faults during operation, affecting the safe and reliable operation of the communication network. In order to further study the full life of OPGW, it is necessary to collect and organize relevant information to analyze the failure mechanism and weak links of OPGW. In step S102 of the embodiment of the present invention, when finding out the factors corresponding to the power optical cable failure through causal analysis based on the power optical cable operation history data, the failure mode of the power optical cable failure and the factors corresponding to each failure mode respectively include: Fatigue fracture: During the operation of the power optical cable, under the vibration of wind, the stress generated by the tension is concentrated at the top of the crack, causing the crack to gradually expand radially; Fiber overload breakage: Excessive tension caused by the tension elongation caused by strong winds and weight under ice and snow causes the optical cable to sag too much or the optical fiber to break due to insufficient excess length; Aging and damage of coating material: The temperature rise in the optical unit exceeds the temperature that the optical fiber coating material can withstand; Deformation or damage of materials and structures: affected by short circuit and lightning current; Chemical corrosion: Chemical environments such as salt spray climate and industrial pollution in coastal areas cause corrosion to power optical cables.

[0029] Among them, fatigue fracture and optical fiber overload fracture are the main failure factors, and aging damage of coating materials, deformation or damage of materials and structures, and chemical corrosion are other failure factors.

[0030] Life cycle management (LCM) starts from long-term benefits, applies a large number of advanced technical means and overall management, and takes into account various related links such as planning, design, construction, operation and decommissioning. The project life cycle must ensure reasonable planning, reliable operation, safe production and high-quality engineering, and achieve overall optimization as the management goal.

[0031] There are four main types of research and definition of the life cycle of construction projects: physical life, functional life, legal life, and economic life. From an economic perspective, the economic life should be selected for the life cycle of a construction project. Generally, when conducting a life cycle cost analysis of a project, the economic life is used as the calculation and analysis period for the construction project. Table 1 shows the types of life cycles.

[0032] Table 1

[0033] (1) Physical lifespan Under normal use, the entire period from the decision-making stage of the construction project to the time when the basic functions cannot meet the normal use of users due to physical damage is called the physical life. The physical life of a project is difficult to accurately define because it is affected by various aspects such as natural disasters, social disasters, and construction quality.

[0034] (2) Functional life Any construction project is to meet the needs of the owner for a certain function. The functional life of a construction project is the period from the decision-making, implementation, and commissioning of the construction project to the time when its functions can no longer meet the needs of the owner. The loss of function of a construction project is mainly caused by physical consumption, technical consumption, changes in the needs of the owner, etc. The functional life of a construction project depends on both internal and external factors of the project. These internal and external factors are random, so the functional life of a construction project is uncertain.

[0035] (3) Legal life The legal life span is the reasonable use period of the construction project stipulated by law. For the purpose of research, the legal life span of the construction project is set to be consistent with the land use right period.

[0036] (4) Economic life Economic life refers to the time from the beginning of a construction project's life to the time when continued use is economically unreasonable and needs to be replaced. It is determined by the increase in operating and maintenance costs and the decrease in use value. The longer the construction project is used, the less the annual asset consumption cost is allocated. However, as the construction project's useful life increases, on the one hand, more operating and maintenance costs are required to maintain the original function; on the other hand, the energy consumption of the construction project will also increase. Therefore, the reduction in annual asset consumption costs will be offset by the increase in annual operating costs. In the entire process of change, there is a year when the average annual use cost of the construction project is the lowest, which is called the economic life of the construction project. The economic life of a construction project is the life cycle of the construction project determined from an economic point of view (or cost point of view).

[0037] See also Figure 2 The life cycle of a transmission line refers to the entire time course of a transmission line from planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance to scrapping. The basic concept of the life cycle design of a transmission line is to achieve the best or optimized performance of the line throughout its life (safety, applicability, durability, economy, ecology, etc.). Low cost is one of the requirements in many aspects, not all. For transmission lines, life economic analysis research is inseparable from the safety and service life of the line system and its components, especially the problems of reduced safety performance of the line system and shortened service life of components caused by line corrosion. The safety of the transmission line has a direct impact on the full life economic indicators of the line system. Life economic analysis requires the service life of the line system (the cycle of economic analysis) to be known, and the safety and reliability of the line must be taken as a prerequisite. At the same time, since the transmission line consists of main components such as conductors, ground wires, insulators, hardware, poles, and foundations, the expected service life of the main components varies greatly, and the problem of matching the life of each component also needs to be considered. It can be seen that the full life design method of the transmission line is a complex design method with multiple objectives, multiple indicators, and multiple levels, and the life design theory is also a comprehensive and complex theoretical system. The basic framework of the core content of the full life cycle design of transmission lines is as follows: Figure 3 shown.

[0038] Life cycle management has characteristics that are different from other management concepts: (1) Life cycle management is a systematic project: it requires systematic and scientific management to achieve the goals of each stage and ensure the realization of the ultimate goal (maximizing the economic, social and environmental benefits of investment).

[0039] (2) Life cycle management runs through the entire process of a power project and has different characteristics and objectives at different stages. The management of each stage is closely linked.

[0040] (3) Continuity of life cycle management: The life cycle management of power construction projects is both phased and holistic, requiring good continuity of work at each stage.

[0041] (4) There are many participants in life cycle management, and they are interconnected and mutually restricted.

[0042] (5) Complexity of life cycle management: It is determined by the systematic, phased and multi-subject nature of the full life cycle management of power construction projects.

[0043] See also Figure 4 In step S104 of the embodiment of the present invention, when calculating the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes calculating decision-making cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and scrapping cost.

[0044] Life cycle cost management (LCC) is to take the overall optimization of the project life cycle as the management goal based on long-term interests, overall planning, production safety, and reliable operation.

[0045] Life cycle management includes integrated management of assets, time, cost, quality, human resources, communication, risk, and procurement. Through organizational integration, knowledge and information are integrated, and information of the future operation period is integrated forward. The management cycle is transformed from a project-based model to a full-life model based on the operation period. It can more comprehensively consider the opportunities and challenges faced by the project and is conducive to improving the value of the project. Life cycle management has two major characteristics: macro prediction and comprehensive control. It considers the entire life cycle from planning and design to scrapping, avoids short-term cost behavior, and institutionally guarantees the application of the LCC method; it breaks some boundaries, comprehensively considers the costs of different stages such as planning, infrastructure, and operation, and seeks the best solution based on the overall benefits of the enterprise; it considers all the expenses that will occur, seeks a balance between the appropriate availability and all costs, and finds the solution with the smallest LCC.

[0046] For a project, the life cycle refers to the entire process from the conception of the construction project to the scrapping of the construction project (or the end of the construction project). During the entire life cycle, the construction project goes through five stages: preliminary planning, design and planning, construction and operation, and scrapping and disposal.

[0047] (1) Costs in the decision-making stage The decision-making stage of power transmission projects is the process of conducting feasibility studies on the project, making technical and economic comparisons of different implementation plans, and finally making a decision. The economic benefits of the project depend on the correctness of the project decision. The decision-making of the substation project plan requires the following work: preliminary planning, access system research, project site selection and feasibility study. The costs incurred during this period are included in the decision-making cost. The decision-making stage is the decisive stage of the full life cycle cost of the substation project. The cost required at this stage accounts for a very small proportion of the full life cycle cost of the substation project, but it may save the largest proportion of the full life cycle cost.

[0048] (2) Costs in the design phase After the feasibility study report is reviewed, the next step is to conduct preliminary design, and then conduct construction drawing design based on the approval of the preliminary design, and conduct completion drawing design after the project is completed. The cost of the design stage includes management, scheme design, special scheme research, finished product publishing, technical services (including technical consultation, work agent services, etc.). Although the cost of the design stage itself is relatively small, its influence runs through the entire life cycle. The quality of the design plan directly affects the quality, construction cost and economic benefits of the project.

[0049] (3) Costs during the construction phase The construction phase is the specific embodiment and implementation of the engineering design plan. The costs of the construction phase include equipment procurement and installation costs, construction engineering and various material costs, manpower and management costs, and various taxes and fees. The construction phase requires huge investment in funds and various resources, a long construction period, and a wide range of areas. These factors will affect the full life cycle cost of the substation project. Although the investment savings at this stage are relatively small, the construction quality will have a great impact on the subsequent operation and maintenance costs and scrapping costs of the project.

[0050] (4) Costs during the operation and maintenance phase The cost of the operation and maintenance stage is the cost of maintaining the function of the substation from the time it is put into operation to the time it is scrapped, including daily operating costs and fault repair costs. Since more than 95% of the life cycle of the substation project is in the operation and maintenance stage, the stage lasts for a long time and accounts for a large proportion of the total cost of the entire life cycle. The main factor affecting the operation and maintenance cost is the design plan. Different design plans determine different operation and maintenance methods, so the optimization of the design plan can greatly reduce the operation and maintenance cost.

[0051] (5) Costs of scrapping The scrapping cost is the cost of scrapping and regenerating the transmission project. The cost at this stage mainly depends on the plan in the design stage and the specific measures taken for scrapping. If the equipment materials or building materials used in the design plan are renewable materials, such as steel, they have a higher residual value and can reduce the scrapping cost; the more complex the design plan, the higher the scrapping disposal cost, which can increase the scrapping cost. The scrapping cost is also directly related to the construction cost during the construction period. The higher the construction cost, the higher the scrapping cost.

[0052] Life cycle management promotes the transformation of equipment management from empirical qualitative analysis to quantitative management. In this process, the support of key technologies such as cost analysis, status assessment, risk assessment, and life assessment is required. To accurately use LCC technology, it is necessary to understand and master the cost decomposition of equipment and systems; through equipment status assessment, the reliability of the equipment can be evaluated, providing a basis for evaluating the operation and maintenance costs of the equipment, and combining the residual value of the equipment, its role in the system and other information, a comprehensive evaluation can be made to derive the impact of the equipment on the normal operation of the power system, and to achieve quantitative indicators for risk assessment; life assessment is a difficult point in LCC support technology, and it is particularly important to accurately quantify the life of the equipment and determine the time span of the entire life cycle.

[0053] In order to meet the needs of sustainable development of OPGW optical cables throughout their entire life cycle, the goal of the OPGW optical cable life cycle is to achieve functional matching, life coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project. It mainly includes the following aspects: (1) Safety and reliability Comprehensively consider the role and impact of OPGW optical cables on the normal operation of the power grid; avoid personal accidents, power grid accidents, and equipment accidents; focus on functional matching to improve overall safety and reliability.

[0054] For OPGW optical cables, it is necessary to optimize the line route plan to avoid facilities that endanger the safe and reliable operation of the cables; give full consideration to the influence of special terrain and micro-meteorological conditions; try to avoid heavy ice areas and areas prone to line dancing; optimize the strength coordination order of OPGW optical cables and structural systems such as conductors, hardware, poles, towers and foundations; and adopt appropriate reinforcement measures for important lines and special sections.

[0055] (2) Maintainability The route selection should be convenient for operation and maintenance; full consideration should be given to the live working mode to facilitate inspection and maintenance.

[0056] (3) Scalability Incorporate grid planning into the overall planning of local governments, coordinate the planning of transmission corridors, and improve utilization; (4) Energy-saving and environmentally friendly Take measures to save resources, protect the environment, coordinate with the environment, save land, energy, water and materials; do not occupy or occupy less arable land and land with high economic benefits; use economical and environmentally friendly construction techniques and methods; use construction machinery with low noise levels, reasonably arrange construction time, and reduce the impact of construction activities on the environment; strengthen environmental management and environmental monitoring during the construction period.

[0057] (5) Feasibility Rationally select the type and technical parameters of equipment to facilitate procurement; scientifically and reasonably organize construction measures, and fully consider the requirements of construction technology, equipment materials, construction tools, construction sites, etc.; select construction materials according to local conditions, optimize large-scale transportation plans, and refine design drawings to facilitate construction; reasonably apply new technologies, new processes, new materials, and new equipment.

[0058] (6) Recyclability With efficient and circular use of resources as the core, full consideration is given to land reuse and equipment and material recycling. When the equipment life cycle ends, it is easy to recycle; when the project life cycle ends, the land can be reused.

[0059] (7) Concept of process standardization The design concept of process standardization in the life cycle is: standardization and simplification of design to create conditions for construction process standardization. Gradually improve the standard system so that construction units can prepare human resources, construction equipment, construction plans and general materials in advance, reduce investment in special construction equipment and materials, shorten the construction period, reduce the cost of training special process personnel, and ensure construction quality.

[0060] (8) Optimal life cycle cost Balance the functions and costs throughout the life cycle. Achieve the coordination and unification of safety, reliability, maintainability, scalability, recyclability and life cycle costs. Avoid short-term behavior, compare multiple plans, select the best plan that is technically reliable, economically reasonable, and environmentally friendly, and achieve the greatest economic and social benefits.

[0061] The life cycle of OPGW optical cable is divided into five stages: planning, design, procurement and construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning. Each stage includes content with different characteristics, completely covering the entire process of life cycle management.

[0062] For OPGW optical cables, which account for a large proportion of the initial investment in engineering construction, it is crucial to reasonably design the type of OPGW optical cables, ensure safe and reliable operation of the lines, reasonably control investment, and reduce operation and maintenance and failure loss costs.

[0063] The basis of the life cycle cost analysis of power transmission projects is the various data of each stage of the power transmission project. The life cycle of power transmission projects is divided into five stages: planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance, and scrapping. The data collection of each stage has its own characteristics. Generally speaking, the life cycle cost analysis of power transmission projects is mainly carried out in the design stage of the project. At this stage, data from all five stages need to be collected. The data in the operation and maintenance stage is the most difficult to collect correctly, and the online monitoring and life assessment required in the operation and maintenance stage are particularly important. The daily operation data of the transmission line measured by the online monitoring device and the current status of the line assessed by the life assessment technology can be used as the basis for life cycle management. After the OPGW optical cable is built and put into operation, there will be more or less problems. In order to grasp the current operation status and safety of the OPGW optical cable, and then predict the future operation status and load-bearing performance of the line, it is key to scientifically evaluate the status and service life of the OPGW optical cable. Up to now, the optical cables laid in my country in the early days have been in operation for more than 20 years, and the design life of the optical cable is generally 30 years. In the construction of optical cable networks, the cost of optical cable line projects accounts for about 70% of the total network construction cost. If the optical cable lines are blindly replaced directly according to the designed life, it will cause a huge waste of resources and is not scientific and targeted. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the life of optical cable performance, which can not only effectively solve the problem of incomplete consideration of influencing factors and weak guidance of evaluation results when comprehensively evaluating optical cable performance, but also be more conducive to planning optimization and minimizing costs in network construction.

[0064] In a possible implementation, step S101 of the embodiment of the present invention obtains actual operating status information of the power optical cable through an optical cable automatic monitoring system. The optical cable automatic monitoring system monitors the power optical cable in real time, analyzes alarm information based on monitoring data, initiates corresponding tests, locates and repairs the fault, and compresses the fault duration.

[0065] One of the key links in the OPGW life cycle cost management is the cost of optical cable operation and maintenance. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the reliability of the optical cable and provide a basis for the asset life cycle management by assessing the status of the optical cable.

[0066] The evaluation of the optical cable status is based on the optical cable monitoring system. First, the status of OPGW should be monitored. Through various online and offline tests, various information of the optical cable, such as technical parameters and appearance, should be collected and obtained. Secondly, various calculation methods and mathematical tools should be used to obtain the current status of the optical cable based on the obtained characterization phenomena. Finally, the standard technical data in various regulations should be compared and analyzed, and the actual status of the OPGW optical cable should be judged considering the actual operating status of the OPGW. The key point of the status evaluation of the OPGW optical cable is to analyze the various external forces that may be suffered based on the operating status of the OPGW optical cable itself, and to analyze the operating life and reliability of the OPGW optical cable.

[0067] Along with the continuous maturity of other related technologies, the online monitoring technology of optical cables has been developing rapidly since the late 1980s. In China, after several years of technical reserves, research and development, and line tests, the monitoring of optical cable lines has gradually transitioned from manual detection to centralized automatic monitoring mode, and has made great progress. With the continuous expansion of the scale of domestic optical cable networks, domestic online monitoring technology for optical cables is also developing continuously. With the development of optical fiber communications, the maintenance and management of optical cables have become increasingly prominent. The number of optical cable line failures has continued to increase due to the increase in the number of optical cables and the aging of early laid optical cables. OPGW optical cables are prone to lightning strikes, and ADSS optical cables are severely affected by electrical corrosion, which can cause fiber breakage failures. The status of optical fiber communication networks is becoming more and more important, and the number and importance of the services carried on them are constantly increasing. The impact of optical fiber interruptions on services is particularly prominent.

[0068] The main technical features of the optical cable automatic monitoring system are: fast fault location; alarm workflow management; and multiple test types: roll call test, regular test, etc. After a long period of development, application and continuous improvement, the optical cable automatic monitoring system has become an important fault location method in trunk optical cable maintenance work.

[0069] The safety, reliability and maintainability of OPGW optical cables are important foundations for the normal operation of communication systems. In optical fiber communication systems, optical fiber quality degradation and optical cable interruption are the most serious and common faults. Therefore, such faults have become the main contradiction affecting the service quality and even normal operation of optical communication systems. In order to resolve this contradiction, it is necessary to understand the operating status of the optical cable at any time, replace it in time before degradation occurs, or obtain fault information in time when the optical cable fails, accurately determine the geographical location of the fault point, and eliminate the fault in time to ensure the transmission quality of the line.

[0070] The optical cable monitoring system can monitor and manage the optical cable line in a timely and effective manner, accurately capture the signs of faults, and prevent the degradation of line transmission indicators, which has become a major concern, making the monitoring and management of optical cable lines increasingly an indispensable management means; the automatic monitoring system of the optical cable line provides an advanced maintenance means for the maintenance department of the optical cable line, which enables the line department to change from passively accepting information from the mechanical department to actively mastering the transmission characteristics of the optical cable, and provides a reliable guarantee for the high-quality, efficient, safe and stable operation of the optical cable transmission network. The automatic monitoring system of the optical cable line should adopt advanced alarm, test, database, network control, business process control and geographic information system technologies, and comprehensively combine optical fiber testing, network management alarm and maintenance system. Through real-time automatic monitoring of optical cables and automatic analysis of alarm information, the corresponding test is automatically started, the fault is automatically located, and the repair is automatically dispatched, thereby compressing the duration of the fault and minimizing the loss of users.

[0071] Life assessment technology is an evaluation and estimation method. It uses data and new information collected in the laboratory or on-site, comprehensively considers various factors, and uses appropriate methods and techniques to conduct sustainable analysis and estimation of the research object.

[0072] The life of optical cables is related to the materials and structures of the cables, the natural environment in which they are located, the construction methods, and lightning strikes. The life of optical cables that have been in operation for more than 15 years varies greatly. Some have been retired after being broken by lightning, some are in good condition and can continue to operate, and some are in poor condition and need life assessment. If a one-size-fits-all approach is adopted to overhaul or retire OPGW, it will cause huge economic losses. Therefore, life assessment of OPGW optical cables helps to improve the refined management of optical cables and provide corresponding technical support for the full life cycle management of OPGW optical cables.

[0073] At present, there are few studies on the life assessment of optical cables. One of the main reasons is that the life of power equipment is divided into various categories, such as physical life, economic life, technical life, etc., and there are not many studies on the life cycle of OPGW. Transmission lines are usually composed of towers, tower foundations, guy wires, conductors, overhead ground wires (OPGW optical cables), insulators, hardware and grounding devices. Based on the full life cycle theory, each transmission accessory must undergo a reasonable life assessment, which is difficult and involves a wide range of components.

[0074] In order to reasonably and scientifically predict the best time for maintenance and replacement of OPGW optical cables, reduce accidents and improve the production efficiency of enterprises, it is necessary to evaluate the life of optical cables.

[0075] Life prediction technology is not only a diversified problem involving multiple evaluation contents (equipment status evaluation, failure rate prediction, and life cycle cost calculation), but also a fuzzy problem that makes it difficult to verify the prediction results. The significance of the life assessment model is to guide the planning, maintenance, and transformation decisions of transmission lines. Evaluating the life of OPGW optical cables, predicting their remaining life and entire operating life, provides technical support for the formulation of OPGW optical cable retirement strategies and the calculation of life cycle costs.

[0076] At present, the life prediction of equipment or systems is a difficult problem in all industries. A lot of research has been conducted using probabilistic statistical methods, physical development mechanisms and other ideas, and some life models have been proposed, but very few can be applied in a practical and friendly manner, and this is also true in the power industry. Equipment has concepts such as physical life, technical life, economic life and depreciation life. It is generally believed that the economic life of the equipment is the number of years from when the equipment is put into use in a new state to when the average annual total cost is the lowest. At this time, even if the equipment can still operate technically, it is no longer economically suitable for use. Therefore, when studying the remaining life of the equipment, the economic life of the equipment can be considered first. Good maintenance of the equipment can extend its economic life, and conversely, the economic life of the equipment can also affect maintenance decisions.

[0077] The method of evaluating the life of OPGW optical cable is mainly based on the above optical cable monitoring and life test methods. Based on the optical cable monitoring technology, historical data of optical cable operation can be collected, and the main contradictions can be found through causal analysis of the problems found, and the current operation status of the optical cable can be evaluated. Timely warnings for optical cable lines are issued to avoid using life prediction technology to predict the life of OPGW optical cable. Based on the optical cable monitoring technology, historical data of optical cable operation can be collected, and the main contradictions can be found through causal analysis of the problems found, and the current operation status of the optical cable can be evaluated in combination with the life assessment method. Timely warnings for optical cable lines are issued to avoid using life prediction technology to predict the residual life of OPGW optical cable. According to the predicted life of OPGW optical cable, the design life of management can be guided from another aspect. By evaluating and predicting the life of OPGW optical cable and combining it with the full life cycle cost management, the economic life of OPGW optical cable can be effectively judged, so that the full life cycle cost is minimized, which has good social and economic benefits. Life cycle management focuses on the optimization of management target system, the construction of organizational responsibility system, the application of full life cycle cost analysis method and the application of integrated thinking.

[0078] The OPGW life cycle mainly involves five stages: engineering design, product design, construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning.

[0079] From a technical perspective, OPGW life cycle management technology mainly includes product design technology, production and manufacturing technology, testing and inspection technology, construction and installation technology, operation and maintenance technology, and life assessment and prediction technology.

[0080] Based on the division of the life cycle stages of OPGW optical cables, the life cycle management concept can be applied to the life cycle management of OPGW optical cables from the five stages involved.

[0081] During the planning and demonstration stage, it is necessary to conduct a full life cycle cost assessment of multiple schemes in conjunction with the power grid planning, taking into account not only the investment in the power grid construction project itself, but also a comprehensive assessment of the operation and maintenance costs, service life, safety and reliability during the service period after the project is put into operation.

[0082] During the design and manufacturing stage, based on the material needs of the OPGW optical cable project, unified bidding or invitation to bid procurement is carried out in accordance with the requirements of the full-process management of materials; the supplier evaluation results are taken into account in the bid evaluation process, and the LCC bid evaluation method is introduced. The bid is not awarded based on the lowest price, but the LCC method that comprehensively considers price and quality; equipment supervision and random inspection management are strengthened; the information platform is used to realize the unified procurement, storage and distribution of materials, and the materials required for power grid construction projects with the best comprehensive cost are provided in a timely and accurate manner.

[0083] During the construction phase, according to the project investment and scale determined by the annual planned budget, the entire OPGW optical cable project execution process is managed from the perspectives of progress, quality, capital and cost control. The OPGW optical cable project budget execution is transferred from ex post control to ex ante control, and the expenses incurred during project execution should be attributed to the corresponding accounts.

[0084] During the operation and maintenance phase, an operation and maintenance plan is formulated based on online monitoring, life assessment and prediction results, online data and historical data are analyzed, the current status and future status development trends of power grid equipment are evaluated and the results are used to guide technical transformation and dynamic updating of asset strategies.

[0085] During the decommissioning phase, retired assets are identified based on life assessment and life cycle cost results, and the reuse, scrapping, recycling and disposal assessment of retired assets are standardized. The assessment results of the disposal of retired equipment are fed back into asset strategy formulation and supplier evaluation.

[0086] In a possible implementation, step S102 of the embodiment of the present invention adopts the hierarchical analysis method to determine the weights corresponding to the relative importance of each factor; in the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, there are two important parts: the object factor evaluation set on which the evaluation object is based and the estimation of the relative importance of the evaluation factors, that is, the weights. The so-called weights are the characterization measurement values ​​that characterize the relative importance of the evaluation factors. The determination of weights in common evaluation problems is generally based on experience and subjective measurement, which is highly subjective. In some cases, the subjective determination of weights still has an objective side, which reflects the actual situation to a certain extent, and the evaluation results have a higher reference value. The so-called hierarchical analysis method is a simple method for quantitative analysis of non-quantitative events in system engineering, and it is also an effective method for objectively describing people's subjective judgments. It belongs to one of the operations research models. Its basic principle is to evaluate the schemes according to hierarchical goals, sub-goals (criteria), constraints, etc., and finally synthesize the priority of each scheme. It is a better relative weight determination method. The hierarchical analysis method described in the embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps: Determine an analysis object and a set of evaluation factors, wherein the analysis object is a power optical cable fault, and the evaluation factors are factors that cause the power optical cable fault; Construct the power optical cable fault judgment matrix by analyzing the objects and judging factors. The weights of various factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault are obtained through the power optical cable fault evaluation matrix; The obtained weights of each factor are output after consistency check.

[0087] For further information, see Figure 5 , an embodiment of the present invention formulates an operation and maintenance strategy or a retirement strategy for the power optical cable based on the defect coefficient. The defect coefficient is determined by the defect level and the number of defects. The defect incidence rate can indicate the status of the equipment, and can also indicate the possibility of future defects or failures of the equipment. Each defect is classified in detail to each component according to the defect description. If there is no information in the defect description column, the defect will be ignored. The defect level is the defect level obtained by multiplying the number of defect levels of various types of faults that occurred in the past years by the corresponding defect level. The defect level can be solved according to the following formula: Defect level = number of general defects × general defect base + number of serious defects × serious defect base + number of emergency defects × emergency defect base.

[0088] The defect coefficient level table of the OPGW optical cable according to the embodiment of the present invention is shown in Table 2. The status of the OPGW optical cable is shown in Table 3.

[0089] Table 2

[0090] Table 3

[0091] By implementing and verifying the embodiment of the present invention, the parameters of the performance degradation model of the estimation process are estimated based on the average core loss data of the online monitoring of Tianmu 5484 line A, and the lifespans at the reliability of 0.9, 0.8 and 0.7 are calculated respectively. Therefore, the remaining lifespan of Tianmu 5484 line A at the reliability of 0.9, 0.8 and 0.7 are 13 years, 15 years and 16 years respectively, and the average lifespan is 11 years.

[0092] Another embodiment of the present invention further provides a life cycle prediction management system for power optical cables, comprising: An operation information acquisition module is used to obtain the actual operation status information of the power optical cable; The fault factor analysis module is used to collect the historical operation data of the power optical cable, and find out the factors corresponding to the power optical cable faults through causal analysis based on the historical operation data of the power optical cable, as well as the weights corresponding to each factor according to the relative importance; The remaining life prediction module is used to calculate and predict the remaining life of the power optical cable based on the factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault and the weights of each factor and the actual operating status information of the power optical cable; The management strategy formulation module is used to calculate the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable in combination with the remaining life of the power optical cable with the minimum full life cycle cost of the power optical cable.

[0093] In a possible implementation, when the management strategy formulation module calculates the life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes calculating decision costs, design costs, construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, and scrapping costs.

[0094] In one possible implementation, when formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable, the management strategy formulation module formulates the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy in accordance with the full life cycle goals of the power optical cable, so as to achieve functional matching, life coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

[0095] Another embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, including a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is used to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable.

[0096] Another embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, and when the at least one instruction is executed by a processor, the life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable is implemented.

[0097] The computer program includes computer program code, which may be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form. The computer-readable storage medium may include: any entity or device, medium, USB flash drive, mobile hard disk, disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory, random access memory, electric carrier signal, telecommunication signal and software distribution medium, etc. that can carry the computer program code. It should be noted that the content contained in the computer-readable medium can be appropriately increased or decreased according to the requirements of legislation and patent practice in the jurisdiction. For example, in some jurisdictions, according to legislation and patent practice, computer-readable media do not include electric carrier signals and telecommunication signals. For ease of explanation, the above content only shows the part related to the embodiment of the present invention. For specific technical details not disclosed, please refer to the method part of the embodiment of the present invention. The computer-readable storage medium is non-temporary and can be stored in a storage device formed by various electronic devices, which can realize the execution process recorded in the method of the embodiment of the present invention.

[0098] It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0099] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the process in the flowchart. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0100] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0101] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0102] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A life cycle prediction management method for power optical cables, characterized in that: include: Obtain the actual operating status information of the power optical cable; Collect the historical operation data of the power optical cable, and find out the factors corresponding to the power optical cable failure through cause-and-effect analysis based on the historical operation data of the power optical cable, as well as the weights corresponding to each factor according to its relative importance; Taking the factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault and the weights of each factor as reference, and according to the actual operation status information of the power optical cable, the remaining life of the power optical cable is calculated and predicted; Calculate the life cycle cost of the power optical cable, minimize the life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable in combination with the remaining life of the power optical cable.

2. The life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The actual operating status information of the power optical cable is obtained through the optical cable automatic monitoring system. The optical cable automatic monitoring system monitors the power optical cable in real time, analyzes the alarm information according to the monitoring data, starts the corresponding test, locates and repairs the fault, and shortens the fault duration.

3. The life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable according to claim 1 is characterized in that: When the factors corresponding to the power optical cable failure are found through causal analysis based on the power optical cable operation history data, the failure modes that cause the power optical cable failure and the factors corresponding to each failure mode respectively include: Fatigue fracture: During the operation of the power optical cable, under the vibration of wind, the stress generated by the tension is concentrated at the top of the crack, causing the crack to gradually expand radially; Fiber overload breakage: Excessive tension caused by the load causes the cable to sag too much or the fiber to break due to insufficient excess length; Aging and damage of coating material: The temperature rise in the optical unit exceeds the temperature that the optical fiber coating material can withstand; Deformation or damage of materials and structures: affected by short circuit and lightning current; Chemical corrosion: Corrosion caused by chemical environment to power optical cables.

4. The life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The hierarchical analysis method is used to determine the weights of each factor according to its relative importance. The analytic hierarchy process includes: Determine an analysis object and a set of evaluation factors, wherein the analysis object is a power optical cable fault, and the evaluation factors are factors that cause the power optical cable fault; Construct the power optical cable fault judgment matrix by analyzing the objects and judging factors. The weights of various factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault are obtained through the power optical cable fault evaluation matrix; The obtained weights of each factor are output after consistency check.

5. The life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In the step of formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or the retirement strategy of the power optical cable, the operation and maintenance strategy or the retirement strategy of the power optical cable is formulated according to the defect coefficient, the defect coefficient is determined by the defect level and the number of defects, and the number of defects corresponding to different defect coefficients is as follows: The defect coefficient is 1.0, and the minimum and maximum values ​​of the corresponding defect times are 0 and 0, respectively; The defect coefficient is 1.05, and the minimum value of the corresponding defect number is 0 and the maximum value is 1; The defect coefficient is 1.1, the minimum value of the corresponding defect number is 1 and the maximum value is 2; or, the minimum value of the corresponding defect number is 2 and the maximum value is 5; The defect coefficient is 1.2, and the minimum number of corresponding defects is 3 and the maximum number is 100; The state coefficient of the power optical cable corresponds to the defect coefficient. The operation and maintenance strategy under different state coefficients is formulated according to the following relationship: The status factor is 1.05, corresponding to continuous maintenance; The state coefficient is 1.1, which corresponds to broken strand repair; or, corresponds to increased fiber attenuation; The state factor is 1.2, which corresponds to excessive fiber attenuation.

6. The life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation of the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes calculating decision-making cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and scrapping cost.

7. The life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The decision-making costs include the costs incurred during the preliminary planning, access system research, project site selection and feasibility study; Design costs include management, program design, special program research, finished product publishing, and technical service costs; Construction costs include equipment purchase and installation costs, construction engineering and material costs, labor and management costs, and taxes; Operation and maintenance costs include the cost of maintaining the substation’s functions from the time it is put into operation until it is scrapped; Decommissioning costs include the costs of decommissioning and regenerating transmission projects.

8. The life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In the step of formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable, the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy is formulated according to the full life cycle objectives of the power optical cable to achieve functional matching, life coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

9. A life cycle prediction management system for power optical cables, characterized in that: include: An operation information acquisition module is used to obtain the actual operation status information of the power optical cable; The fault factor analysis module is used to collect the historical operation data of the power optical cable, and find out the factors corresponding to the power optical cable faults through causal analysis based on the historical operation data of the power optical cable, as well as the weights corresponding to each factor according to the relative importance; The remaining life prediction module is used to calculate and predict the remaining life of the power optical cable based on the factors corresponding to the power optical cable fault and the weights of each factor and the actual operating status information of the power optical cable; The management strategy formulation module is used to calculate the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable in combination with the remaining life of the power optical cable with the minimum full life cycle cost of the power optical cable.

10. The life cycle prediction management system for power optical cables according to claim 9, characterized in that: When the management strategy formulation module calculates the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the full life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes calculation decision cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and scrapping cost.

11. The life cycle prediction management system for power optical cables according to claim 9, characterized in that: When formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy of the power optical cable, the management strategy formulation module formulates the operation and maintenance strategy or retirement strategy in accordance with the full life cycle goals of the power optical cable to achieve functional matching, life coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

12. An electronic device, characterized in that: The invention comprises a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is used to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8.

13. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, and when the at least one instruction is executed by a processor, the life cycle prediction management method for a power optical cable according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

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