Power low-carbon transformation path power failure risk quantitative evaluation method and system considering renewable energy long-time low output condition, computer equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses an electric power low-carbon transformation path power failure risk quantitative evaluation method and system considering a renewable energy long-time low output condition, computer equipment and a storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: calculating the total power failure risk of a whole electric power low-carbon transformation path by considering the installed capacity of various power supplies, the total power generation amount and the power vacancy of the whole system; compared with an existing method, the power failure risk caused by the renewable energy source low output condition to power low-carbon transformation can be more comprehensively considered.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of low-carbon transformation planning and technical-economic evaluation of energy and power, and specifically relates to a method, system, computer device, and storage medium for quantitatively evaluating the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electricity considering the long-term low output of renewable energy. Background Art

[0002] The low-carbon transformation of the power industry has become an inevitable choice for the world to address environmental pollution and climate change, and wind energy and solar energy have become the keys to energy transformation. However, under the background of climate change, the strong climate dependence of wind and solar power sources poses unprecedented challenges to power system planning, especially in the case of long-term low output of renewable energy. The so-called "long-term low output" refers to the situation where the power generation of renewable energy is far lower than the average level within a cycle of one day or even longer due to natural conditions such as continuous rainy weather, long-term windless state, or severe drought.

[0003] At present, many power balance studies have deeply discussed the intra-day fluctuations of renewable energy and proposed many effective coping methods and technologies. However, standby facilities such as electrochemical energy storage and pumped-storage energy storage usually only have a continuous discharge capacity of about 1-12 hours. When the power system lacks a supporting power source that can provide reliable power, the long-term low output of renewable energy poses a severe challenge to the safe operation of the power system and may cause serious power outage risks.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a method for quantitatively evaluating the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electricity considering the long-term low output of renewable energy, effectively evaluate the power outage risk caused by the long-term low output of renewable energy, support the optimization of the transformation path of the new power system, and contribute to the safety guarantee of energy and power. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Object of the Invention: To solve the problem that when the power system lacks a supporting power source that can provide reliable power, the long-term low output of renewable energy poses a severe challenge to the safe operation of the power system and may cause serious power outage risks, the present invention proposes a method, system, computer device, and storage medium for quantitatively evaluating the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electricity considering the long-term low output of renewable energy.

[0006] Technical Solution: A method for evaluating the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electricity considering the long-term low output of renewable energy, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step 1: Set the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated, where the low-carbon transformation path includes: the overall time span of the transformation period, N transformation time steps obtained by dividing the overall time span of the transformation period, and T power outage risk assessment steps obtained by dividing each transformation time step.

[0008] Step 2: Obtain the total electricity consumption demand under each transformation time step during the transformation period and the installed capacity of each type of power source in the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated.

[0009] Step 3: Calculate the upper limit of the power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step based on the installed capacity of each type of power source under each transformation time step during the transformation period.

[0010] Step 4: Calculate the upper limit of the total power generation of the power system to be evaluated within a unit power outage risk assessment step based on the upper limit of the power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step.

[0011] Step 5: Calculate the total electricity consumption within the power outage risk assessment step based on the total electricity consumption demand and the load distribution coefficient of the power system to be evaluated under each transformation time step, and calculate the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step based on the upper limit of the total power generation and the total electricity consumption of the power system to be evaluated within a unit power outage risk assessment step.

[0012] Step 6: Calculate the power outage risk within the power outage risk assessment step based on the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step, and accumulate the power outage risks within each power outage risk assessment step one by one to obtain the total power outage risk within each transformation time step.

[0013] Step 7: Accumulate the total power outage risks within each transformation time step one by one to obtain the cumulative power outage risk during the transformation period of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire power system to be evaluated.

[0014] Further, the N transformation time steps obtained by dividing the overall time span of the transformation period include:

[0015] Dividing the overall time span of the transformation period into N transformation time steps according to the change in the installed capacity of each type of power source in the power system to be evaluated during the transformation period.

[0016] Further, the T power outage risk assessment steps obtained by dividing each transformation time step include:

[0017] Dividing each transformation time step into T power outage risk assessment steps according to the output characteristics of renewable energy in the power system to be evaluated during the transformation period.

[0018] Further, in Step 3, the upper limit of the power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula:

[0019]

[0020] where e represents the type of each power source; l t represents the time length of the power outage risk assessment step; n represents the sequence number of the transformation time step; t represents the sequence number of the power outage risk assessment step; represents the upper limit of the power generation of power source type e within the nth transformation time step and the tth power outage risk assessment step, represents the installed capacity of power source type e within the nth transformation time step; represents the output coefficient of conventional energy within the tth power outage risk assessment step; represents the output coefficient of renewable energy within the tth power outage risk assessment step.

[0021] Furthermore, the output coefficient refers to the ratio between the actual power generation of the unit and its maximum possible power generation within a specific time period.

[0022] Furthermore, in step 4, the upper limit of the total power generation of the evaluated power system within a unit power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula:

[0023]

[0024] where Q t,n is the upper limit of the total power generation of the evaluated power system within the tth power outage risk assessment time step, is the upper limit of the power generation of power source type e within the tth power outage risk assessment time step.

[0025] Furthermore, in step 5, the total power consumption within the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula:

[0026] D t,n = L t,n * D n

[0027] where D t,n is the total power consumption within the tth power outage risk assessment step calculated according to the load distribution coefficient, D n is the total power consumption demand of the evaluated power system within the nth transformation time step, L t,n is the load distribution coefficient within the tth power outage risk assessment step, representing the ratio between the power consumption within the tth power outage risk assessment step and the total power consumption within the nth transformation time step.

[0028] Furthermore, in step 5, the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula:

[0029] E t,n = Dt,n -Q t,n

[0030] Among them, E t,n is the power shortage within the t-th power outage risk assessment step, D t,n is the total power consumption within the t-th power outage risk assessment step calculated according to the load distribution coefficient, Q t,n is the upper limit of the total power generation of the system within the t-th power outage risk assessment step.

[0031] Furthermore, in step 6, the power outage risk within the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula:

[0032] C t,n = ω t *E t,n

[0033] Among them, C t,n is the power outage risk within the t-th power outage risk assessment step, ω t is the economic cost corresponding to the unit power shortage. The economic cost corresponding to the unit power shortage refers to the economic losses caused by the long-term low output of renewable energy, including the economic losses of power supply departments and power users, waste of production materials, etc. The economic cost corresponding to the unit power shortage is closely related to the regional economic development level; E t,n is the power shortage within the t-th power outage risk assessment step.

[0034] Furthermore, in step 6, the total power outage risk within each transformation time step is obtained according to the following formula:

[0035] C n = ∑C t,n

[0036] Among them, C n is the total power outage risk within the n-th transformation time step during the transformation period, which is the sum of the power outage risks of T power outage risk assessment steps within this transformation time step, C t,n is the total power outage risk within the t-th power outage risk assessment step.

[0037] Furthermore, the cumulative power outage risk during the transformation period of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire evaluated power system is obtained by successive accumulation according to the following formula:

[0038] C = ∑C n

[0039] Among them, C is the cumulative power outage risk during the transformation period of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire evaluated power system, which is the sum of the total power outage risks of N transformation time steps during the transformation period, C n is the total power outage risk within the n-th transformation time step during the transformation period.

[0040] The present invention discloses a power low-carbon transformation path power outage risk assessment system considering long-term low output of renewable energy, including the following modules:

[0041] A low-carbon transformation path setting module for setting the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated, where the low-carbon transformation path includes: the overall time span of the transformation period, N transformation time steps obtained by dividing the overall time span of the transformation period, and T power outage risk assessment steps obtained by dividing each transformation time step;

[0042] An information acquisition module for acquiring the total electricity consumption demand at each transformation time step during the transformation period and the installed capacity of each type of power source on the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated;

[0043] A power generation upper limit calculation module for each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step, which is used to calculate the upper limit of power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step according to the installed capacity of each type of power source at each transformation time step during the transformation period;

[0044] A total power generation upper limit calculation module for the unit power outage risk assessment step, which is used to calculate the total power generation upper limit of the power system to be evaluated within the unit power outage risk assessment step according to the upper limit of power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step;

[0045] A power shortage calculation module within the power outage risk assessment step, which is used to calculate the total electricity consumption within the power outage risk assessment step according to the total electricity consumption demand and load distribution coefficient of the power system to be evaluated at each transformation time step, and calculate the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step according to the total power generation upper limit and total electricity consumption of the power system to be evaluated within the unit power outage risk assessment step;

[0046] A total power outage risk calculation module for each transformation time step, which is used to calculate the power outage risk within the power outage risk assessment step according to the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step, and accumulate the power outage risks within each power outage risk assessment step one by one to obtain the total power outage risk for each transformation time step;

[0047] An accumulated power outage risk calculation module, which is used to accumulate the total power outage risks of each transformation time step one by one to obtain the accumulated power outage risk of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire power system to be evaluated during the transformation period.

[0048] The present invention discloses a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the above-disclosed power low-carbon transformation path power outage risk assessment method considering long-term low output of renewable energy.

[0049] The present invention discloses a storage medium storing a power outage risk assessment program, which, when executed by at least one processor, implements the steps of a power outage risk assessment method for a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output conditions of renewable energy as disclosed above.

[0050] Beneficial effects: Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0051] (1) The present invention discloses a method and system for quantitatively assessing the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output conditions of renewable energy: The present invention takes into account the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the whole system, the total power generation of the system, and the power shortage, and calculates the total power outage risk of the entire low-carbon transformation path of electric power. Compared with the existing methods, it can more comprehensively consider the power outage risk brought by the low output conditions of renewable energy to the low-carbon transformation of electric power.

[0052] (2) The present invention takes into account the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the whole system, the total power generation of the system, and the power shortage, and calculates the total power outage risk of the entire low-carbon transformation path of electric power. Compared with the existing methods, it can more comprehensively consider the impact of the low output conditions of renewable energy on the power outage risk brought by the low-carbon transformation of electric power. Description of the Drawings

[0053] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of a method for quantitatively assessing the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output conditions of renewable energy proposed by the present invention. Detailed Embodiments

[0054] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the following will further describe a method for assessing the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output conditions of renewable energy in the present invention with reference to the drawings and embodiments in the present invention.

[0055] Embodiment 1:

[0056] As Figure 1 shown, this embodiment proposes a method for assessing the power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output conditions of renewable energy, specifically including the following steps:

[0057] Step 1: Set the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated, including the evaluation time period (for convenience of description, hereinafter referred to as the transformation period), set the overall time span of the transformation period to I; according to the change in the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the power system to be evaluated during the transformation period, divide the overall time span I of the transformation period into N transformation time steps; according to the output characteristics of renewable energy in the power system to be evaluated during the transformation period, divide each transformation time step into T power outage risk assessment steps;

[0058] Step 2: Read the relevant information on the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated, where the relevant information includes the total electricity demand at each transformation time step during the transformation period, the installed capacity of each type of power source, etc.;

[0059] Step 3: Calculate the upper limit of the power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step according to the installed capacity of each type of power source at each transformation time step during the transformation period; the calculation formula is:

[0060]

[0061] where, e represents the type of each power source; l t represents the time length of the power outage risk assessment step; n represents the serial number of the transformation time step; t represents the serial number of the power outage risk assessment step; represents the upper limit of the power generation of power source type e at the nth transformation time step and the tth power outage risk assessment step, represents the output coefficient of power source type e within the tth power outage risk assessment step, represents the installed capacity of power source type e at the nth transformation time step.

[0062] It should be noted that, is the output coefficient of power source type e within the tth power outage risk assessment step, which represents the ratio between the actual power generation of the unit and its maximum possible power generation (i.e., the power generation at the rated power) within a specific time period; in this method, it is assumed that conventional energy sources such as coal-fired power, gas-fired power, and nuclear power can maintain stable power generation output when renewable energy has low output, and its output coefficient is fixed according to the set value, expressed as For renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaic power, multiple given output coefficient scenarios for future hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaic power can be set. The output coefficient curve can be set based on statistical values or can be the future value extrapolated from the statistical values considering the multi-year change rate, expressed as

[0063] Step 4: Calculate the upper limit of the total power generation of the power system to be evaluated within the tth power outage risk assessment step according to the upper limit of the power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step, and the calculation formula is:

[0064]

[0065] where, Q t，n is the upper limit of the total power generation of the power system to be evaluated within the tth power outage risk assessment time step, is the upper limit of the power generation of power source type e within the tth power outage risk assessment time step.

[0066] Step 5: Calculate the total power consumption within the power outage risk assessment step based on the total power consumption demand and load distribution coefficient of the evaluated power system within each transformation time step, and calculate the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step based on the upper limit of the total power generation and the total power consumption of the evaluated power system within the power outage risk assessment step; the specific operations include:

[0067] S1: Calculate the total power consumption within the t-th power outage risk assessment step based on the total power consumption demand and load distribution coefficient of the evaluated power system within the n-th transformation time step. The calculation formula is:

[0068] D t，n =L t,n *D n

[0069] Where D t，n is the total power consumption within the t-th power outage risk assessment step calculated based on the load distribution coefficient, D n is the total power consumption demand of the evaluated power system within the n-th transformation time step, and L t，n is the load distribution coefficient within the t-th power outage risk assessment step, representing the ratio of the power consumption within the t-th power outage risk assessment step to the total power consumption within the n-th transformation time step.

[0070] S2: Calculate the power shortage within the t-th power outage risk assessment time step based on the upper limit of the total power generation and the total power consumption of the evaluated power system within the t-th power outage risk assessment step. The calculation formula is:

[0071] E t,n =D t,n -Q t，n

[0072] Where E t，n is the power shortage within the t-th power outage risk assessment step, D t，n is the total power consumption within the t-th power outage risk assessment step calculated based on the load distribution coefficient, and Q t，n is the upper limit of the total power generation of the system within the t-th power outage risk assessment step.

[0073] Step 6: Calculate the power outage risk within the power outage risk assessment step based on the power shortage of the evaluated power system within the power outage risk assessment step, and accumulate the power outage risks within each power outage risk assessment step one by one to obtain the total power outage risk within each transformation time step; the specific operations include:

[0074] Step1: Calculate the power outage risk within the t-th power outage risk assessment step based on the power shortage within the t-th power outage risk assessment step. The calculation formula is:

[0075] C t，n =ω t *Et，n

[0076] Among them, C t，n is the power outage risk within the t-th power outage risk assessment step, and ω t is the economic cost corresponding to the unit power shortage. The economic cost corresponding to the unit power shortage refers to the economic losses caused by the long-term low output of renewable energy, including the economic losses of power supply departments and power users, waste of production materials, etc. The economic cost corresponding to the unit power shortage is closely related to the regional economic development level; E t，n is the power shortage within the t-th power outage risk assessment step.

[0077] Step 2: Cumulatively sum the power outage risks within each power outage risk assessment step one by one to obtain the total power outage risk within the n-th transformation time step. The calculation formula is:

[0078] C n = ∑C t，n

[0079] Among them, C n is the total power outage risk within the n-th transformation time step during the transformation period, which is the sum of the power outage risks of T power outage risk assessment steps within this transformation time step, and C t，n is the total power outage risk within the t-th power outage risk assessment step.

[0080] Step 7: According to the total power outage risk of each transformation time step, cumulatively sum one by one to obtain the cumulative power outage risk during the transformation period of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire evaluated power system. The calculation formula is:

[0081] C = ∑C n

[0082] Among them, C is the cumulative power outage risk during the transformation period of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire evaluated power system, which is the sum of the total power outage risks of N transformation time steps during the transformation period, and C n is the total power outage risk within the n-th transformation time step during the transformation period.

[0083] Set the overall time span of the transformation period to 40 years; assume that the installed capacity of each type of power source in the evaluated power system changes annually during the transformation period, and divide the transformation period into 40 transformation time steps; since the output of renewable energy changes daily during the transformation period, divide each transformation time step into 365 power outage risk assessment steps.

[0084] Record that during the n-th transformation time step of the transformation period, the installed capacities (in billions of kilowatts) of coal-fired power, gas-fired power, nuclear power, hydropower, onshore wind power, offshore wind power, and photovoltaic are [4.00, 0.48, 0.64, 2.18, 7.97, 1.20, 13.29] respectively; the total electricity consumption within the n-th transformation time step is D n= 300 billion kWh.

[0085] During the t-th power outage risk assessment step within the transformation time step, the set values of the output coefficients of coal-fired power, gas-fired power, and nuclear power are The output coefficients of hydropower, onshore wind power, offshore wind power, and photovoltaic power are respectively Since the time length (in hours) of the power outage risk assessment step is l t = 24, the upper limits of the power generation amounts of coal-fired power, gas-fired power, nuclear power, hydropower, onshore wind power, offshore wind power, and photovoltaic power within this power outage risk assessment step can be calculated as:

[0086]

[0087] According to the upper limits of the power generation amounts of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step as mentioned above, the upper limit of the total power generation amount of the entire system within this power outage risk assessment step can be calculated as billion kW.

[0088] According to the load distribution coefficient L t，n in the t-th power outage risk assessment step is 0.00585; then the total power consumption D t，n = L t，n * D n = 0.00585 × 300 = 17.5 billion kW.

[0089] According to the upper limit of the total power generation amount Q t，n and the total power consumption D t，n in the t-th power outage risk assessment step, calculate the power shortage amount E t，n = D t,n - Q t，n = 1.131 billion kW.

[0090] Suppose the economic cost corresponding to the unit power shortage amount in the region where the power system being evaluated is located within the transformation time step is 60 yuan / kW, then the power outage risk within the t-th power outage risk assessment step of the power system being evaluated is 67.86 billion yuan.

[0091] Similarly, accumulate the power outage risks within each power outage risk assessment step one by one to obtain the total power outage risk within each transformation time step; C n , and further accumulate them one by one to obtain the cumulative power outage risk during the transformation period of the entire power low-carbon transformation path. C.

[0092] Similarly, the total power outage risks of the power low-carbon transformation paths under different scenarios can be evaluated.

[0093] The above method takes into account the installed capacity of various power sources in the whole system, the total power generation of the system, and the power shortage, and calculates the total power outage risk of the entire low-carbon power transformation path. Compared with the existing methods, it can more comprehensively consider the impact of the power outage risk brought by the low output of renewable energy on the low-carbon power transformation.

[0094] Embodiment 2:

[0095] This embodiment proposes a power outage risk quantification and assessment system for a low-carbon power transformation path considering the long-term low output of renewable energy, including the following modules:

[0096] Low-carbon transformation path setting module, used to set the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated, and the low-carbon transformation path includes: the overall time span of the transformation period, N transformation time steps obtained by dividing the overall time span of the transformation period, and T power outage risk assessment steps obtained by dividing each transformation time step;

[0097] Information acquisition module, used to acquire the total power consumption demand at each transformation time step during the transformation period and the installed capacity of each type of power source on the low-carbon transformation path of the power system to be evaluated;

[0098] Power generation upper limit calculation module for each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step, used to calculate the power generation upper limit of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step according to the installed capacity of each type of power source at each transformation time step during the transformation period;

[0099] Total power generation upper limit calculation module for the unit power outage risk assessment step, used to calculate the total power generation upper limit of the power system to be evaluated within the unit power outage risk assessment step according to the power generation upper limit of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step;

[0100] Power shortage calculation module within the power outage risk assessment step, used to calculate the total power consumption within the power outage risk assessment step according to the total power consumption demand of the power system to be evaluated at each transformation time step and the load distribution coefficient, and calculate the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step according to the total power generation upper limit and the total power consumption of the power system to be evaluated within the unit power outage risk assessment step;

[0101] Total power outage risk calculation module for each transformation time step, used to calculate the power outage risk within the power outage risk assessment step according to the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step, and accumulate the power outage risks within each power outage risk assessment step one by one to obtain the total power outage risk for each transformation time step;

[0102] Cumulative power outage risk calculation module, used to accumulate the total power outage risks of each transformation time step one by one to obtain the cumulative power outage risk of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire power system to be evaluated during the transformation period.

[0103] Example 3:

[0104] This example discloses a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps disclosed in any of the above examples.

[0105] Example 4:

[0106] This example discloses a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps disclosed in any of the above examples.

[0107] Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above example methods can be completed by instructing relevant hardware through a computer program. The computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of the above example methods. Among them, any reference to a memory, storage, database, or other medium used in the various examples provided in this application can include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memories. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, or optical memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can be in various forms, such as static random access memory (SRAM) or dynamic random access memory (DRAM), etc.

[0108] The technical features of the above examples can be combined arbitrarily. For the sake of brevity of description, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above examples are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, it should be considered as the scope described in this specification.

[0109] The above-described examples only represent several implementation manners of this application. Their descriptions are relatively specific and detailed, but they should not be construed as limiting the scope of the invention patent. It should be noted that for those of ordinary skill in the art, without departing from the concept of this application, several modifications and improvements can still be made, and these all belong to the protection scope of this application. Therefore, the protection scope of this application patent should be subject to the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for assessing power outage risk in a low-carbon electricity transformation path considering long-term low output of renewable energy, characterized by: The following steps are involved: Step 1: setting a low-carbon transformation path for the power system to be evaluated, the low-carbon transformation path comprising: an overall time span of the transformation period, N transformation time steps obtained by dividing the overall time span of the transformation period, and T power outage risk assessment steps obtained by dividing each transformation time step; Step 2: Obtain the total electricity demand at each transition time step during the transition period in the low-carbon transition path of the power system being evaluated, as well as the installed capacity of each type of power source; Step 3: Calculate the upper limit of power generation of each type of power source in the power outage risk assessment step according to the installed capacity of each type of power source at each transition time step during the transition period; Step 4: Calculate the upper limit of the total power generation of the assessed power system within the unit power outage risk assessment step according to the upper limit of the power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step; Step 5: Calculate the total power consumption in the blackout risk assessment step according to the total power demand and load distribution coefficient of the assessed power system in each transition time step, and calculate the power shortage in the blackout risk assessment step according to the total power generation upper limit and total power consumption of the assessed power system in the unit blackout risk assessment step; Step 6: Calculate the power outage risk within the power outage risk assessment step according to the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step, accumulate the power outage risks within each power outage risk assessment step one by one, and obtain the total power outage risk within each transition time step; Step 7: Based on the total power outage risk at each transition time step, add them up one by one to obtain the cumulative power outage risk of the low-carbon transition path of the entire assessed power system during the transition period.

2. According to claim 1, a method for assessing power outage risk in a low-carbon electricity transformation path taking into account long-term low output conditions of renewable energy, characterized in that: The N transformation time steps obtained by dividing the overall time span of the transformation period include: According to the changes in the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the power system evaluated during the transition period, the overall time span of the transition period is divided into N transition time steps.

3. According to claim 1, a method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electricity considering long-term low output of renewable energy is characterized by: The T power outage risk assessment steps obtained by dividing each transition time step include: According to the output characteristics of renewable energy in the power system evaluated during the transition period, each transition time step is divided into T power outage risk assessment steps.

4. According to claim 1, a method for assessing power outage risk in a low-carbon electricity transformation path taking into account long-term low output conditions of renewable energy, characterized in that: In step 3, the upper limit of power generation of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula: Where, e represents the type of each power supply; l t represents the time length of the power outage risk assessment step; n represents the sequence number of the transformation time step; t represents the sequence number of the power outage risk assessment step; represents the upper limit of power generation capacity of power source type e in the nth transition time step and the tth power outage risk assessment step, represents the installed capacity of power source type e in the nth transition time step; represents the output coefficient of conventional energy in the tth power outage risk assessment step; Represents the output coefficient of renewable energy in the tth power outage risk assessment step.

5. A method for assessing power outage risk in a low-carbon electricity transformation path considering long-term low output of renewable energy according to claim 4, characterized in that: The output coefficient refers to the ratio between the actual power generation of the unit and its maximum possible power generation within a specific time period.

6. The method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output of renewable energy according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step 4, the upper limit of the total power generation of the assessed power system within the unit blackout risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula: Among them, Q t,n is the upper limit of the total power generation of the assessed power system in the tth blackout risk assessment time step, is the upper limit of power generation capacity of power source type e in the tth power outage risk assessment time step.

7. The method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output of renewable energy according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step 5, the total power consumption within the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula: D t,n =L t,n *D n Among them, D t,n is the total power consumption in the tth power outage risk assessment step calculated according to the load distribution coefficient, D n is the total electricity demand of the power system under evaluation in the nth transition time step, L t,n is the load distribution coefficient within the t-th power outage risk assessment step, which represents the ratio of the power consumption within the t-th power outage risk assessment step to the total power consumption within the n-th transition time step.

8. The method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output of renewable energy according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step 5, the power shortage in the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula: E t,n =D t,n -Q t,n Among them, E t,n is the power shortage in the tth power outage risk assessment step, D t,n is the total power consumption in the tth power outage risk assessment step calculated according to the load distribution coefficient, Q t,n is the upper limit of the total power generation in the tth power outage risk assessment step of the system.

9. The method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output of renewable energy according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step 6, the power outage risk within the power outage risk assessment step is calculated according to the following formula: C t,n =ω t *E t,n Among them, C t,n is the power outage risk in the tth power outage risk assessment step, ω t The economic cost corresponding to the unit electricity shortage refers to the economic loss caused by the long-term low output of renewable energy, including economic losses of the power supply department and power users, waste of production materials, etc. The economic cost corresponding to the unit electricity shortage is closely related to the level of regional economic development; E t,n is the power shortage in the tth power outage risk assessment step.

10. The method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 6, the total power outage risk in each transition time step is obtained as follows: C n =∑C t,n Among them, C n is the total power outage risk in the nth transition time step during the transition period, is the sum of the power outage risks of T power outage risk assessment steps within the transition time step, and C t,n is the total power outage risk in the tth power outage risk assessment step.

11. The method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electric power considering long-term low output of renewable energy according to claim 1, characterized in that: The cumulative power outage risk during the transition period of the low-carbon transition path of the entire assessed power system is obtained by adding them up one by one according to the following formula: C=∑C n Where C is the cumulative power outage risk of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire assessed power system during the transition period, and C is the sum of the total power outage risks in N transition time steps during the transition period. n is the total power outage risk in the nth transition time step during the transition period.

12. A power outage risk assessment system for low-carbon transformation paths of electricity taking into account long-term low output conditions of renewable energy, characterized by: Includes the following modules: A low-carbon transformation path setting module is used to set the low-carbon transformation path of the evaluated power system, wherein the low-carbon transformation path includes: an overall time span of the transformation period, N transformation time steps obtained by dividing the overall time span of the transformation period, and T power outage risk assessment steps obtained by dividing each transformation time step; An information acquisition module is used to obtain the total electricity demand at each transformation time step during the transformation period and the installed capacity of each type of power source in the low-carbon transformation path of the power system being evaluated; The power generation upper limit calculation module of each type of power source in the power outage risk assessment step is used to calculate the power generation upper limit of each type of power source in the power outage risk assessment step according to the installed capacity of each type of power source at each transition time step during the transition period; A total power generation upper limit calculation module within a unit power outage risk assessment step is used to calculate the total power generation upper limit of the assessed power system within the unit power outage risk assessment step according to the power generation upper limits of each type of power source within the power outage risk assessment step; The power shortage calculation module within the power outage risk assessment step is used to calculate the total power consumption within the power outage risk assessment step according to the total power demand and load distribution coefficient of the assessed power system in each transformation time step, and calculate the power shortage within the power outage risk assessment step according to the total power generation upper limit and total power consumption of the assessed power system within the unit power outage risk assessment step; The total power outage risk calculation module in each transition time step is used to calculate the power outage risk in the power outage risk assessment step according to the power shortage in the power outage risk assessment step, and accumulate the power outage risks in each power outage risk assessment step one by one to obtain the total power outage risk in each transition time step; The cumulative power outage risk calculation module is used to accumulate the total power outage risk of each transformation time step one by one to obtain the cumulative power outage risk of the low-carbon transformation path of the entire evaluated power system during the transformation period.

13. A computer device, characterized in that: The method comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of a method for assessing power outage risk of a low-carbon transformation path of electricity taking into account long-term low output conditions of renewable energy as described in any one of claims 1 to 11 are implemented.

14. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores a power outage risk assessment program, which, when executed by at least one processor, implements the steps of a power outage risk assessment method for a low-carbon transformation path of electricity that takes into account long-term low output conditions of renewable energy as described in any one of claims 1 to 11.

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