Probability assessment method of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for probabilistic assessment of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation. It includes the following steps: investigating the living environment of residents around the landslide and compiling the land cover types in the living environment into a geographic vector file; dividing the land cover areas available for human evacuation in the geographic vector file into multiple sub-areas to determine the human evacuation network; estimating the available time for residents in each sub-area to escape; estimating the required time for residents in each sub-area to escape; establishing a function to represent the success or failure of human evacuation, and based on the function representing the success or failure of human evacuation, establishing individual-level and group-level probabilistic assessment formulas for human vulnerability. The present invention can be replicated in other areas with landslide risks, so as to effectively plan the optimal pre-disaster evacuation route and provide important scientific basis and practical reference for landslide disaster prevention and mitigation work.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of geological disasters, and particularly to a method for probabilistic assessment of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation. Background Art

[0002] Compared with the extensive research on building vulnerability assessment, the research on landslide human vulnerability assessment is relatively limited. Due to the difficulty in obtaining post-disaster casualty data and the lack of understanding of the non-static characteristics of humans (evacuation behavior), most of the existing human vulnerability assessment methods are qualitative and semi-quantitative methods, which determine the casualty probability of humans by subjectively assigning fixed values or based on limited historical data.

[0003] However, due to the complexity of human characteristics and the great uncertainty of evacuation behavior in the face of landslide disasters, such assessment methods are often inaccurate. For example: some quantitative assessment methods attempt to subjectively determine the evacuation ability of humans through factors such as age and consider it in the vulnerability assessment, but do not explicitly reflect the evacuation behavior of humans from the landslide. Summary of the Invention

[0004] Aiming at the deficiencies of the existing technology, the present invention proposes a method for probabilistic assessment of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation, which combines the evacuation behavior of humans and the dynamic characteristics of landslide movement, incorporates them into the human vulnerability assessment, simulates the heterogeneous evacuation behavior of humans in landslide scenarios and various obstacle environments, and realizes the human vulnerability assessment in the real world.

[0005] To achieve the above object, a method for probabilistic assessment of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation designed by the present invention is characterized in that it includes the following steps:

[0006] S1) Incorporate the land cover types in the living environment into a geographic vector file;

[0007] S2) Divide the land cover areas available for human evacuation in the geographic vector file into multiple sub-areas, determine the network nodes of each sub-area, and the connections between the network nodes form a human evacuation network;

[0008] S3) Estimate the available time for the residents in each sub-area to evacuate; the available time for the residents in each sub-area to evacuate is the moment when the landslide reaches the network node in the corresponding sub-area;

[0009] S4) Estimate the required time for the residents in each sub-area to evacuate;

[0010] S5) Based on the available time and required time for the residents in each sub-region to escape, establish a function to represent the success or failure of personnel evacuation, and according to the function representing the success or failure of personnel evacuation, establish the individual-level and group-level personnel vulnerability probability assessment formulas respectively, representing the probability of evacuation failure of an individual or a group of people in different sub-regions within the landslide influence range.

[0011] Furthermore, in S1), the living environment includes population information, residential location, evacuation routes available to residents during a landslide, and land cover type; the population information includes the total number of people in the study area, age ratio, and male-female ratio.

[0012] Even further, in S2), the process of establishing the personnel evacuation network includes extracting the centroids of each sub-region, avoiding inaccessible sub-regions, and connecting the centroids of adjacent accessible sub-regions to establish the personnel evacuation network.

[0013] Furthermore, in S3), conduct landslide numerical simulation on the landslide site, and estimate the available time for the residents in each sub-region to escape by simulating the landslide movement process.

[0014] Even further, in S4), determine the evacuation network between the location of the personnel and each exit of the landslide, establish a personnel evacuation model based on the evacuation network, and estimate the required time for the residents in each sub-region to escape through the personnel evacuation model;

[0015] The personnel evacuation model is represented by the following formula

[0016] ;

[0017] In the formula,

[0018] T d represents the required time for the residents in each sub-region to escape,

[0019] T r represents the evacuation response time of the residents in each sub-region,

[0020] T y represents the evacuation delay time of the residents in each sub-region,

[0021] T m represents the evacuation movement time of the residents in each sub-region,

[0022] 1 is a vector with all elements being 1.

[0023] Even further, in S4), the evacuation movement time of the residents in each sub-region is calculated by the following formula

[0024] ;

[0025] Wherein,

[0026] T m represents the evacuation movement time of the residents in each sub - area,

[0027] P 0 ...... P m represents the network node labels from the 0th to the mth sub - area in each evacuation network route,

[0028] D 0 ...... D m represents the cumulative evacuation distance from the initial network node to the mth network node in each evacuation network route,

[0029] v represents the evacuation speed of the residents.

[0030] Furthermore, in S5), the functional function for characterizing the success or failure of personnel evacuation is

[0031] ;

[0032] Wherein,

[0033] G represents the functional function,

[0034] θ l represents a random variable related to landslide movement,

[0035] θ h represents a random variable related to personnel evacuation,

[0036] T a represents the available time for the residents in each sub - area to evacuate,

[0037] T d represents the required time for the residents in each sub - area to evacuate;

[0038] The individual - level personnel vulnerability probability assessment formula is expressed by the following formula

[0039] ;

[0040] Wherein,

[0041] V Represents the probability assessment value of personnel vulnerability at the individual level,

[0042] P Represents the probability assessment value that the function G is less than or equal to zero,

[0043] θ l Represents the random variables related to landslide movement,

[0044] θ h Represents the random variables related to personnel evacuation,

[0045] f ( θ l , θ h ) Represents the joint probability density function of the random variables related to landslide movement and personnel evacuation;

[0046] The formula for the probability assessment of personnel vulnerability at the group level is expressed by the following formula

[0047] ;

[0048] In the formula,

[0049] V t Represents the probability assessment value of personnel vulnerability at the group level,

[0050] V i Represents the probability assessment value of personnel vulnerability at the individual level in the i th sub-region within the landslide influence range,

[0051] P i Represents the i th sub-region's population quantity,

[0052] n Represents the total number of sub-regions divided within the landslide influence range.

[0053] Furthermore, in S5), the random variables related to landslide movement include soil cohesion, internal friction angle, pore water pressure coefficient, and unit weight; the random variables related to personnel evacuation include age, gender, and experience in dealing with landslides.

[0054] Even further, it also includes step S6), according to the calculated personnel vulnerability values at the individual level in different sub-regions, to draw an individual vulnerability distribution map.

[0055] The advantages of the present invention are:

[0056] 1. The present invention first considers the internal relationship between the behavior of personnel evacuation and landslide movement. Compared with the traditional method for evaluating the vulnerability of personnel based on subjective and empirical judgments, this method provides a more accurate and reasonable assessment of casualties. The present invention also distinguishes between the vulnerability at the individual level and the vulnerability at the group level, significantly reflecting the differences between individual vulnerability and group vulnerability, and providing a basis and reference for landslide disaster prevention and mitigation through the individual vulnerability distribution map.

[0057] 2. The present invention develops a personnel evacuation model based on network technology. This personnel evacuation model has significant advantages in capturing the dynamic characteristics of landslide movement and personnel evacuation. The ant colony optimization algorithm and Dijkstra algorithm can be used to plan the evacuation routes of personnel in a complex obstacle environment, enabling this personnel evacuation model to adapt to any complex environment, rather than being limited to simple and idealized scenario conditions threatened by landslides.

[0058] The method for evaluating the probability of personnel vulnerability considering landslide movement and personnel evacuation in the present invention can achieve a more accurate and reasonable estimation of casualties compared with the traditional method for evaluating the vulnerability of personnel based on subjective and empirical judgments. It can be replicated in other areas with landslide risks, thereby effectively planning the optimal evacuation routes before disasters, guiding the evacuation routes during disasters, assisting in post-disaster rescue, improving the efficiency and accuracy of post-disaster emergency response, minimizing casualties to the greatest extent, and providing an important scientific basis and practical reference for landslide disaster prevention and mitigation work. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0059] Figure 1 is the flow chart of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 2a is the topographic map before a certain landslide instability and the spatial scope of two consecutive landslides in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0061] Figure 2b is the land cover type distribution map within the landslide accumulation area after a certain landslide instability in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0062] Figure 2c is the spatial distribution of the number of residents within the landslide accumulation area after a certain landslide instability in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 2d is the personnel evacuation network for personnel to pass through during the movement of a certain landslide in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 3a is the numerical simulation of the first movement process of a certain landslide in the embodiment of the present invention (the landslide movement time is 5 s);

[0065] Figure 3bNumerical simulation of the first migration process of a landslide in an embodiment of the present invention (the landslide migration time is 30 s);

[0066] Figure 3c Numerical simulation of the first migration process of a landslide in an embodiment of the present invention (the landslide migration time is 48 s);

[0067] Figure 4a Numerical simulation of the second migration process of a landslide in an embodiment of the present invention (the landslide migration time is 5 s);

[0068] Figure 4b Numerical simulation of the second migration process of a landslide in an embodiment of the present invention (the landslide migration time is 30 s);

[0069] Figure 4c Numerical simulation of the second migration process of a landslide in an embodiment of the present invention (the landslide migration time is 102 s);

[0070] Figure 5 Spatial distribution map of the vulnerability of individuals at the individual level in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed implementation manners

[0071] The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0072] In the description of the present invention, it should be understood that the orientation or positional relationship indicated by the terms "length", "width", "upper", "lower", "front", "rear", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", etc. is based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the accompanying drawings, and is only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, rather than indicating or implying that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore should not be construed as a limitation of the invention.

[0073] As Figure 1 shown, a method for evaluating the probability of vulnerability of people considering landslide migration and people's escape in the present invention includes the following steps:

[0074] S1) Investigate the living environment of the residents around the landslide, and incorporate the land cover types in the living environment into a geographic vector file.

[0075] Specifically, the living environment includes population information, living locations, escape roads available to residents when the landslide comes, and land cover types; the population information includes the total number of people in the research area, age ratio, and male-female ratio.

[0076] The land cover types in the living environment include buildings, roads, farmlands, ponds, obstacles, woodlands, etc., and their respective spatial distributions.

[0077] As Figure 2a is the topographic map before a certain landslide instability and the sliding ranges of two consecutive landslides. The volume of the first slide is small and the affected area is small, while the volume of the second slide is large and the affected area is large. The area within the dashed square is the main landslide accumulation range; Figure 2b is the land cover types within the accumulation area after the landslide instability, including buildings, hardened ground, hardened roads, ponds, soil ground, waste dumps, and fences. Among them, ponds, dumps, and fences are obstacle areas where personnel are not allowed to pass, and areas with land cover types of hardened roads, hardened ground, and soil roads allow personnel to pass; Figure 2c is the spatial distribution of the number of residents within the landslide accumulation area. The total population of the study area is 1000 people, and the male-female ratio is 0.59:0.41. The proportion of people aged 0 - 18 is 0.17, the proportion of people aged 18 - 40 is 0.54, the proportion of people aged 40 - 60 is 0.26, and the proportion of people over 60 years old is 0.03.

[0078] S2) Divide the land cover areas available for personnel evacuation in the geographic vector file into multiple sub - regions, determine the network nodes of each sub - region, and the connections between the network nodes form the personnel evacuation network.

[0079] Specifically, the establishment process of the personnel evacuation network includes extracting the centroid of each sub - region, avoiding non - passable sub - regions, and connecting the centroids of adjacent passable sub - regions to establish the personnel evacuation network. The centroids of each sub - region form the network nodes of the evacuation network. In this landslide case, hardened ground, hardened roads, and soil ground are areas where personnel can pass, and the constructed evacuation network is in Figure 2b , and personnel run from inside the landslide boundary to outside the landslide boundary through the nodes and edges of the network, where the exit of the landslide boundary is represented by a red square.

[0080] S3) Conduct an investigation on the landslide site to estimate the available time for each sub - region's residents to evacuate; the available time for each sub - region's residents to evacuate is the moment when the landslide reaches the network node in the corresponding sub - region.

[0081] Specifically, carry out landslide numerical simulation on the landslide site to estimate the available time for each sub - region's residents to evacuate by simulating the landslide movement process.

[0082] When conducting an investigation on the landslide site, for the potential landslide range within the study area, carry out geotechnical engineering investigations to obtain soil data including cohesion, internal friction angle, pore water pressure coefficient, unit weight, etc., and the digital elevation model around the landslide. The landslide numerical simulation method can be selected according to the landslide type in the study area, such as the discrete element method and the depth - integrated continuum model method, and finally obtain the spatio - temporal distribution of the landslide.

[0083] In this case, the method based on the depth-integrated continuum model is used to simulate the two landslide processes. The specific simulation steps are as follows: (1) Obtain the soil parameters of the landslide, the volume of the two slides, and the terrain data. (2) Call the commercial software Massflow to complete the numerical simulation of the landslide. The results are as Figures 3a - 3c and Figures 4a - 4c shown. Figures 3a - 3c Figures 3a - 3c is the migration process of the first landslide, with a small migration range, a small speed, and a migration duration of 48 s. Figures 4a - 4c Figures 4a - 4c is the migration process of the second landslide, with a large migration range, a fast speed, and a migration duration of 102 s. The interval between the two landslides is about 10 minutes. According to the simulation of the landslide migration, the time for the landslide material to reach each node in the escape network ( Figure 2d ) can be obtained, which marks the available time left for people to escape.

[0084] S4) Estimate the required escape time for the residents in each sub-region.

[0085] Specifically, determine the escape network between the location of the people and the exits of the landslide. Based on the escape network, establish a personnel escape model, and estimate the required escape time for the residents in each sub-region through the personnel escape model.

[0086] The personnel escape model quantifies the escape behavior of people at each stage in the landslide scenario at the time level and quantifies the real-time moving position of people in the landslide scenario at the space level.

[0087] The said personnel escape model is expressed by the following formula

[0088] ;

[0089] In the formula,

[0090] T d represents the required escape time for the residents in each sub-region.

[0091] T r represents the escape reaction time of the residents in each sub-region.

[0092] T y represents the escape delay time of the residents in each sub-region.

[0093] T m represents the escape moving time of the residents in each sub-region.

[0094] 1 is a vector with all elements being 1.

[0095] In the above formula, the escape reaction time T rand escape delay time T y It is a scalar representing the time a person spends at the residential (initial) location. Escape movement time T m It is a vector recording the time taken for a person to reach each sub-region during the escape process. Considering the differences in age, gender, and experience in dealing with landslides among people, the differences in escape behavior caused by individual heterogeneity need to be considered in the escape model.

[0096] The escape response time of residents in each sub-region T r It refers to the time between the moment when the landslide starts and the moment when a person perceives the landslide signal and has the awareness to escape. The escape response time is usually quantified using the Rayleigh distribution, and the corresponding scale parameter and displacement parameter in the Rayleigh distribution need to be selected according to the landslide characteristics and resident attributes of the research area. In this embodiment, the scale parameter is 11 and the displacement parameter is -10s.

[0097] The escape delay time of residents in each sub-region T y It refers to the time period between having the awareness to escape and officially starting to escape. The delay behavior mainly includes notifying others to evacuate, protecting family members, etc. It is related to the age of the person. Generally, the older the person, the longer the required delay time. The delay time is usually quantified using the log-normal distribution, and the corresponding shape parameter can be determined according to the resident attributes of the research area. In this embodiment, it is set that there is no delay behavior for people under 40 years old, and the delay time of people over 40 years old follows the log-normal distribution, with a mean of 30s and a standard deviation of 9s.

[0098] The escape movement time of residents in each sub-region T m It refers to the time required to escape from the initial position along the selected path. The steps for personnel to plan the escape path are as follows:

[0099] First, determine the escape direction of the person. Set three directions, namely parallel to the landslide axis, perpendicular to the landslide axis, and diagonal to the landslide axis. Determine the escape direction according to the person's landslide experience, and randomly select an exit within a certain escape direction as the escape destination. The escape exit in this embodiment is located at the landslide boundary, such as Figure 2b ;

[0100] Second, use the ant colony optimization algorithm and Dijkstra algorithm to determine the shortest path between the location of the person (network node) and the exit (network node) as the escape path of the person. The network nodes passed through on the path are marked as P 0, P 1,…, P m and determine the cumulative escape distance calculated from the initial nodeD 0, D 1, …, D m ;

[0101] Thirdly, determine the evacuation speed of people v , the evacuation speed of people is related to their age and gender, and is usually determined according to the Weibull distribution. The average evacuation speeds in different age groups and genders in this embodiment are shown in Table 1, where the data in parentheses are the scale parameter and shape parameter of the Weibull distribution respectively.

[0102] Table 1 Average evacuation speeds in different age groups and genders

[0103] .

[0104] Finally, determine the movement time of people T m , specifically, the evacuation movement time of the residents in each sub-region is calculated by the following formula

[0105] ;

[0106] In the formula,

[0107] T m represents the evacuation movement time of the residents in each sub-region,

[0108] P 0 ...... P m represents the network node labels from the 0th to the mth sub-region in each evacuation network route, P 0 represents the initial position of people's evacuation, P m is the destination (exit) of people's evacuation,

[0109] D 0 ...... D m represents the cumulative evacuation distance from the initial network node to the mth network node in each evacuation network route,

[0110] v represents the evacuation speed of the residents.

[0111] S5) Based on the available time and required time for the residents in each sub-region to escape, establish a functional function representing the success or failure of personnel evacuation, and according to the functional function representing the success or failure of personnel evacuation, establish the individual-level and group-level personnel vulnerability probability assessment formulas respectively, indicating the evacuation failure probability of a person or a group of people in different sub-regions within the landslide influence range.

[0112] The functional function representing the success or failure of personnel evacuation is

[0113] ;

[0114] In the formula,

[0115] G represents the functional function,

[0116] θ l represents a random variable related to landslide movement,

[0117] θ h represents a random variable related to personnel evacuation,

[0118] T a represents the available time for the residents in each sub-region to escape,

[0119] T d represents the required time for the residents in each sub-region to escape.

[0120] Specifically, the random variable θ l related to landslide movement θ h includes soil cohesion, internal friction angle, pore water pressure coefficient, and unit weight; the random variable

[0121] G ( θ l , θ h ) ≤ 0 means T d ≥ T a , which occurs at a certain position on the personnel evacuation route, that is, the required time for the personnel to reach or leave a certain position is greater than the available time for the landslide to reach the corresponding position, and the landslide catches up with the personnel, in which case the personnel evacuation fails.

[0122] G ( θ l ,θ h ) > 0 indicates that T d < T a , which occurs throughout the entire process of personnel evacuation, that is, from the start of personnel evacuation to escaping beyond the landslide boundary, and the personnel are never overtaken by the landslide. In this case, the personnel evacuation is successful.

[0123] The vulnerability of personnel at the individual level represents the probability of evacuation failure for an individual in different sub - regions within the landslide - affected area, and the vulnerability of personnel at the group level represents the probability of evacuation failure for a group of people within the landslide - affected area.

[0124] Specifically, the probability assessment formula for the vulnerability of personnel at the individual level is expressed as follows

[0125] ;

[0126] In the formula,

[0127] V represents the probability assessment value of the vulnerability of personnel at the individual level,

[0128] P represents the probability assessment value that the function G is less than or equal to zero,

[0129] θ l represents the random variable related to landslide movement,

[0130] θ h represents the random variable related to personnel evacuation, θ l and θ h The integration domain of G ( θ l , θ h ) ≤ 0 is expanded within,

[0131] f ( θ l , θ h ) represents the joint probability density function of the random variables related to landslide movement and personnel evacuation.

[0132] The above - mentioned probability assessment formula for the vulnerability of personnel at the individual level can be solved by the reliability method, such as Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the probability assessment formula for the vulnerability of personnel at the individual level and combined with the spatial distribution of population density within the landslide - affected area, a probability assessment formula for the vulnerability of personnel at the group level is established.

[0133] Specifically, the probability assessment formula for human vulnerability at the group level is expressed as follows:

[0134] ;

[0135] Where,

[0136] V t Indicates the probability assessment value of human vulnerability at the group level,

[0137] V i Indicates the number of i The probability assessment value of human vulnerability at the individual level in each sub-area,

[0138] P i Indicates the i The population of each sub-region,

[0139] n Indicates the total number of sub-areas within the landslide impact range.

[0140] According to the simulation results of the available time and required time for residents in each sub-area to escape, the vulnerability of people is accurately assessed based on the vulnerability quantification formula, and the potential number of casualties caused by the landslide is estimated.

[0141] The population-level human vulnerability value finally obtained in this example is 0.077. Based on a total population of 1000, it is estimated that the landslide may cause 77 casualties, which is very close to the actual situation.

[0142] The present invention further comprises step S6), drawing an individual vulnerability distribution map based on the calculated individual level vulnerability values of different sub-areas, such as Figure 5 As shown, areas with high individual vulnerability are primarily concentrated within and around the first landslide boundary. Most areas within the second landslide boundary have zero vulnerability. This is due to the time interval between the first and second landslides, giving residents ample time to escape before the second landslide. Within the first landslide boundary, areas near the source and central regions have high individual vulnerability, approaching 1. This is due to the combination of low available time for escape and long time required to escape the landslide boundary. In contrast, individual vulnerability is lower at the landslide edge, due to the combination of high available time for escape and short time required to escape the landslide boundary. This demonstrates that the spatial distribution of individual vulnerability within the landslide-affected area is different due to landslides, which also significantly reflects the difference between individual vulnerability and group vulnerability.

[0143] The present invention also provides a computer program product. This computer program can autonomously execute to implement any of the above-mentioned contents. This computer program is written in Python language and completes the probability assessment of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation.

[0144] The method for probability assessment of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation according to the present invention can be reproduced in other areas with landslide risks, so as to effectively plan the optimal evacuation route before a disaster, guide the evacuation route during a disaster, assist in post-disaster rescue, improve the efficiency and accuracy of post-disaster emergency response, thus minimizing casualties to the greatest extent, and providing an important scientific basis and practical reference for landslide prevention and mitigation work.

[0145] The above embodiments are preferred embodiments of the present invention, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited to the above embodiments. Any other changes, modifications, substitutions, combinations, and simplifications made without departing from the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be equivalent replacement methods and are all included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for probabilistic assessment of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: S1) Incorporate the land cover types in the living environment into a geographic vector file; S2) Divide the land cover areas in the geographic vector file that are available for people to escape into multiple sub-regions, determine the network nodes of each sub-region, and the connections between the network nodes form a personnel escape network; S3) Estimate the available time for the residents of each sub-region to escape; the available time for the residents of each sub-region to escape is the moment when the landslide reaches the network node in the corresponding sub-region; S4) Estimate the required time for the residents of each sub-region to escape; Determine the escape network between the location of the person and the exits of the landslide. Based on the escape network, establish a personnel escape model, and estimate the required time for the residents of each sub-region to escape through the personnel escape model; The personnel escape model is expressed by the following formula T d = T r 1 + T y 1 + T m In the formula, T d Indicates the required time for the residents of each sub-region to escape. T r represents the escape response time of residents in each sub-region T y represents the evacuation delay time of residents in each sub-region T m represents the evacuation movement time of the residents in each sub-region 1 is a vector with all elements being 1; The escape movement time of the residents of each sub-region is calculated by the following formula In the formula, T m Indicates the evacuation movement time of residents in each sub-region P0......P m Indicates the network node labels from the 0th to the mth sub-region in each escape network route. D0......D m Indicates the cumulative escape distance from the initial network node to the m-th network node in each escape network route. v represents the escape speed of the residents; S5) Based on the available time and required time for the residents of each sub-region to escape, establish a function that characterizes the success or failure of personnel escape, and based on the function that characterizes the success or failure of personnel escape, establish individual-level and group-level personnel vulnerability probability assessment formulas, representing the escape failure probabilities of an individual and a group of people in different sub-regions within the landslide influence range; The function that characterizes the success or failure of personnel escape is In the formula, G represents the function; θ l represents a random variable related to landslide movement θ h represents a random variable related to personnel evacuation T a represents the available time for the residents in each sub-region to escape, T d Indicates the required time for the residents of each sub-region to escape.

2. The method for evaluating the probability of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and personnel evacuation according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S1), the living environment includes population information, living locations, escape routes available to residents during a landslide, and land cover types; the population information includes the total number of people in the study area, age ratio, and male-female ratio.

3. The method for evaluating the probability of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation according to claim 2, wherein: In S2), the process of establishing the personnel escape network includes extracting the centroids of each sub-region, avoiding non-passable sub-regions, and connecting the centroids of adjacent passable sub-regions to establish the personnel escape network.

4. The method for evaluating the probability of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S3), conduct landslide numerical simulation on the landslide site, and estimate the available time for the residents of each sub-region to escape by simulating the landslide movement process.

5. The method for evaluating the probability of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and personnel evacuation according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S5), the individual-level personnel vulnerability probability assessment formula is expressed by the following formula In the formula, V represents the individual-level personnel vulnerability probability assessment value; P represents the probability assessment value that the function G is less than or equal to zero; θ l represents a random variable related to landslide movement θ h represents a random variable related to personnel evacuation f(θ l , θ h ) represents the joint probability density function of random variables related to landslide movement and personnel evacuation; The group-level personnel vulnerability probability assessment formula is expressed by the following formula In the formula, V t Represents the probability assessment value of personnel vulnerability at the group level V i Indicates the individual-level personnel vulnerability probability assessment value of the i-th sub-region within the landslide influence range. P i represents the population of the i-th sub-region, n represents the total number of sub-regions divided within the landslide influence range.

6. The method for evaluating the probability of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S5), the random variables related to the landslide movement include soil cohesion, internal friction angle, pore water pressure coefficient, and unit weight; the random variables related to personnel escape include age, gender, and experience in dealing with landslides.

7. The method for evaluating the probability of human vulnerability considering landslide movement and human evacuation according to claim 6, characterized in that: It also includes step S6), and draw an individual vulnerability distribution map according to the calculated individual-level personnel vulnerability values of different sub-regions.

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