Method, system and equipment for predicting dangerous range of valley type ice rock collapse clastic flow disaster chain and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a valley-type ice rock collapse clastic flow disaster chain danger range prediction method, system and device and a storage medium, and belongs to the field of clastic flow disaster prevention and control, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the average width of a valley; determining the volume and the ice content of the hidden danger body; the ratio H / L of the predicted vertical height difference H to the horizontal distance L in the whole movement process of the ice rock collapse clastic flow is obtained; the ratio Ht / Lt of the vertical height difference Ht and the horizontal distance Lt from the position of the hidden danger body to the position of each point of the gully is obtained, and when the first value smaller than H / L appears in the Ht / Lt, the position is determined to be the maximum danger range boundary of the ice rock collapse clastic flow disaster in the gully. The invention provides a set of efficient, quantitative and spatialized scheme, the static distribution information of the ice rock clastic flow hidden danger can be accurately quantified into visual and available geographic space information of the maximum danger range in combination with the dynamic influence of the valley terrain, and the risk assessment and emergency decision of ice rock collapse clastic flow disasters can be more scientifically supported.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of debris flow disaster prevention and control, and in particular relates to a method, system, equipment and storage medium for predicting the dangerous range of a gully-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain. Background Art

[0002] Glacial rockfall debris flows are a unique, high-speed, long-range disaster occurring in high-altitude, cold mountainous areas. These two-phase mixtures of ice and rock often exhibit greater mobility than typical debris flow chains. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, an amplifier of global climate change, experiences increasing temperatures each year. This, combined with its unique structure and complex strata and lithology, provides favorable conditions and internal driving forces for glacial rockfall debris flows.

[0003] Due to the characteristics of ice-rock avalanche debris flows such as being highly concealed and difficult to reach, there is little detailed on-site investigation and limited knowledge of the scope of the disaster. This poses a challenge to the risk prevention and control of high-altitude and long-range ice-rock avalanche debris flow disasters. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, system, equipment and storage medium for predicting the dangerous range of the gully-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain, so as to solve the problem that there is currently no good risk prevention and control technology for ice-rock avalanche debris flow disasters.

[0005] The embodiment of the present application is implemented as follows: a method for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain comprises the following steps: Get the average width of the gully; Determine the volume and ice content of the hazardous object; According to the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley, the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice rock avalanche debris flow movement is obtained. H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; Obtain the vertical height difference from the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0006] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the area of the hidden danger body is obtained. Specifically, the area of the hidden danger body is calculated based on the boundary of the hidden danger body using the Arcgis analysis function on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w and / or The distance between each point in the valley is 10m~100m.

[0007] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the volume of the hidden danger body is ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 and / or Ice content ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0008] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, , where The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m; ; Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa. r ice is the density of the ice body, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in m, r rock is the rock mass density, in kg / m 3 , i is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in degrees.

[0009] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the average thickness H of the mother glacier of the hidden danger body is g The empirical formula is , the maximum glacier thickness H for stress equilibrium imax The calculation formula is ; like H g < H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body is H ice equal H g ; If H g ≥H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body H ice Equal to H imax ; Where, S g is the area of the parent glacier of the potential hazard, in km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass, in Pa, r ice is the density of the ice body, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , i is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, in degrees.

[0010] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the volume of the ice body ; Where, The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H ice The thickness of ice in the hazardous area, in meters.

[0011] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, ; Where, is the ice content, dimensionless, w is the average width of the valley, in m, is the volume of the hidden danger body, unit: m 3 .

[0012] Accordingly, the embodiment of the present application also provides a system for predicting the hazard range of a valley-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain, including: The average gully width model is used to obtain the average gully width; Hidden danger volume and ice content model, used to determine the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies; H / L The model is used to obtain the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice-rockfall debris flow movement based on the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; The maximum danger range boundary model is used to obtain the vertical height difference from the location of the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0013] Accordingly, an embodiment of the present application also provides a computer device, including a storage and a processor, wherein the storage stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor performs the steps of the above method.

[0014] Accordingly, an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor executes the steps of the above method.

[0015] In summary, due to the adoption of the above technical solution, the beneficial effects of the present invention are: This application first identifies the potential hazard of gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow through remote sensing image analysis and field investigation, then obtains the average width of the gully through remote sensing investigation, and obtains regional lithology data through field investigation ( c rock 、 r rock、 α rock ) and assist remote sensing surveys to determine the location of hidden danger bodies, quantitatively calculate the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies, and construct a predicted vertical height difference between the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies and the entire process of ice and rock avalanche debris flow movement H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / LCompared with existing methods that rely on empirical valuation, have large errors in key input parameters, and have poor model practicality, this application can more scientifically support risk assessment and emergency decision-making for ice-rock avalanche debris flow disasters.

[0016] This application obtains the distribution of typical ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies in the study area through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation; obtains the characteristic parameters of ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies and the terrain parameters of the valley movement area through hazard body information extraction; and uses ice-rock debris flow hazard body to obtain the distribution of typical ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies and the distribution of typical ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies. H / L The calculation formula is combined with the movement path in the valley H t / L t Data is used to determine the maximum hazard range boundary and hazard range of the ice-rock debris flow disaster in the valley. The present invention provides a set of efficient, quantitative, and spatialized technical solutions that can accurately quantify the static distribution information of ice-rock debris flow hazards, combined with the dynamic influence of the valley terrain, into intuitive and usable maximum hazard range geospatial information. This fundamentally solves the problem of traditional methods being vague, subjective, or overly simplified in determining the hazard range, and provides indispensable scientific support and decision-making basis for risk management, engineering planning, and emergency plan formulation of ice-rock debris flow disasters in alpine and cold areas, and has significant practical value and promotion prospects.

[0017] This application adds a hidden danger body identification step based on remote sensing image interpretation and on-site investigation to the prediction process, combined with the terrain boundary extraction method, to accurately determine the boundary and area of the hidden danger body of the valley-type ice-rock debris flow; uses a method combining empirical formulas and stress balance formulas to calculate the thickness of the ice body, and takes the ice body thickness into account in the rock stress balance formula to calculate the rock thickness of the hidden danger body, quantitatively calculates the volume and ice content of the hidden danger body, effectively solves the problem of quantitative calculation of ice content, significantly improves the accuracy of model input parameters, and solves the problem of rough parameter estimation in the existing technology.

[0018] This application introduces ice content parameters based on the traditional H / L model to construct a dimensionless number of ice content parameters. f i V 1 / 3 / w , by fitting the data of the physical model experiment, we get f i V 1 / 3 / w Combined with the empirical formula of H / L, a new movement distance calculation model suitable for ice-containing rockfall debris flows was established, which overcomes the technical defect of the existing model that does not consider the influence of ice composition and significantly improves the scientificity and applicability of movement distance estimation.

[0019] When calculating the danger range, this application takes into account the terrain information of the movement path in the valley for judgment, improves the setting of spatial constraint conditions for danger range judgment, and thus effectively compensates for the problem of misjudgment of danger range caused by traditional methods that do not consider the influence of the terrain of the movement path, enhances the terrain adaptability and accuracy of the prediction results, and is suitable for actual engineering site selection and disaster prevention planning. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain of the present invention; Figure 2 A diagram showing the data fitting results of an H / L correction model experiment for ice-rock debris flows provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 This is a prediction diagram provided for an application example of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0021] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0022] Existing technologies cannot fully reflect the characteristics of ice-rock mixed media: the ice content of different ice-rock debris flow cases is different, and the ice content can significantly affect the movement distance. Existing methods cannot take the ice content parameter into account, and their risk assessment accuracy is insufficient.

[0023] The terrain changes along the entire motion path are not considered: the existing technology directly uses the average slope of the entire valley, which cannot take into account the terrain changes along the motion path, resulting in large estimation errors and low prediction accuracy.

[0024] The technical solution of this application is as follows: See also Figure 1 In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain, comprising the following steps: S01, obtain the average width of the valley; S02. Determine the volume and ice content of the hazardous object; S03. Obtain the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice-rockfall debris flow movement based on the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; S04. Obtain the vertical height difference between the hidden danger body and each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance Lt Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0025] This application first identifies the potential hazard of gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow through remote sensing image analysis and field investigation, then obtains the average width of the gully through remote sensing investigation, and obtains regional lithology data through field investigation ( c rock 、 r rock、 α rock ) and assist remote sensing surveys to determine the location of hidden danger bodies, quantitatively calculate the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies, and construct a predicted vertical height difference between the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies and the entire process of ice and rock avalanche debris flow movement H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L Compared with existing methods that rely on empirical valuation, have large errors in key input parameters, and have poor model practicality, this application can more scientifically support risk assessment and emergency decision-making for ice-rock avalanche debris flow disasters.

[0026] This application obtains the distribution of typical ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies in the study area through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation; obtains the characteristic parameters of ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies and the terrain parameters of the valley movement area through hazard body information extraction; and uses ice-rock debris flow hazard body to obtain the distribution of typical ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies and the distribution of typical ice-rock debris flow hazard bodies. H / L The calculation formula is combined with the movement path in the valley H t / L t Data is used to determine the maximum hazard range boundary and hazard range of the ice-rock debris flow disaster in the valley. The present invention provides a set of efficient, quantitative, and spatialized technical solutions that can accurately quantify the static distribution information of ice-rock debris flow hazards, combined with the dynamic influence of the valley terrain, into intuitive and usable maximum hazard range geospatial information. This fundamentally solves the problem of traditional methods being vague, subjective, or overly simplified in determining the hazard range, and provides indispensable scientific support and decision-making basis for risk management, engineering planning, and emergency plan formulation of ice-rock debris flow disasters in alpine and cold areas, and has significant practical value and promotion prospects.

[0027] This application adds a hidden danger body identification step based on remote sensing image interpretation and on-site investigation to the prediction process, combined with the terrain boundary extraction method, to accurately determine the boundary and area of the hidden danger body of the valley-type ice-rock debris flow; uses a method combining empirical formulas and stress balance formulas to calculate the thickness of the ice body, and takes the ice body thickness into account in the rock stress balance formula to calculate the rock thickness of the hidden danger body, quantitatively calculates the volume and ice content of the hidden danger body, effectively solves the problem of quantitative calculation of ice content, significantly improves the accuracy of model input parameters, and solves the problem of rough parameter estimation in the existing technology.

[0028] This application introduces ice content parameters based on the traditional H / L model to construct a dimensionless number of ice content parameters. f i V 1 / 3 / w , by fitting the data of physical model experiments, we get f i V 1 / 3 / w Combined with the empirical formula of H / L, a new movement distance calculation model suitable for ice-containing rockfall debris flows was established, which overcomes the technical defect of the existing model that does not consider the influence of ice composition and significantly improves the scientificity and applicability of movement distance estimation.

[0029] When calculating the danger range, this application takes into account the terrain information of the movement path in the valley for judgment, improves the setting of spatial constraint conditions for danger range judgment, and thus effectively compensates for the problem of misjudgment of danger range caused by traditional methods that do not consider the influence of the terrain of the movement path, enhances the terrain adaptability and accuracy of the prediction results, and is suitable for actual engineering site selection and disaster prevention planning.

[0030] In the S01: It can be understood that in remote sensing images, the boundary mark of the rear edge of the hidden danger body is the surface development of high-density arc-shaped tensile cracks, which are mostly dark in color and the direction of the cracks is mostly perpendicular to the direction of the air surface. Some ice bodies are completely separated from the parent glacier, and obvious signs of displacement can be seen on their rear edges; the side edges and front edges are marked by bedrock with obvious joints or cracks.

[0031] In some embodiments, the area of the hidden danger body is obtained. Specifically, the area of the hidden danger body is calculated based on the boundary of the hidden danger body using the Arcgis analysis function on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w .

[0032] In the S02: In some embodiments, the volume of the hidden danger volume is ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0033] In some embodiments, the ice content ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0034] Further, , where The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m; ; Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa. r ice is the density of the ice body, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in m, r rock is the rock mass density, in kg / m 3 , i is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in degrees; Furthermore, the average thickness of the parent glacier H g The empirical formula is , the maximum glacier thickness H for stress equilibrium imax The calculation formula is ; like H g < H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body is H ice equal H g ; If H g ≥H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body H iceEqual to H imax ; Where, S g is the area of the parent glacier of the potential hazard, in km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass, in Pa, r ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , i is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, in degrees.

[0035] Furthermore, the volume of the ice ; Where, The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H ice The thickness of ice in the hazardous area, in meters.

[0036] In said S03: In some embodiments, ; Where, is the ice content, dimensionless, w is the average width of the valley, in m, is the volume of the hidden danger body, unit: m 3 .

[0037] See also Figure 2 , illustratively, Data fitting results from H / L modified physical model experiments of ice-rock debris flows.

[0038] In said S04: In some embodiments, the distance between each point in the valley is 10m~100m, for example, it can be 10m, 20m, 30m, 40m, 50m, 60m, 70m, 80m, 90m, 100m, etc. It can be understood that since the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster process occurs in the valley, the valley range from the hidden danger point to the boundary of the maximum danger range is determined as the ice-rock avalanche debris flow danger range.

[0039] In a second aspect, embodiments of the present application provide a system for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain, including: The average gully width model is used to obtain the average gully width; Hidden danger volume and ice content model, used to determine the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies; H / L The model is used to obtain the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice-rockfall debris flow movement based on the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; The maximum danger range boundary model is used to obtain the vertical height difference from the location of the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0040] In the valley average width model: It can be understood that in remote sensing images, the boundary mark of the rear edge of the hidden danger body is the surface development of high-density arc-shaped tensile cracks, which are mostly dark in color and the direction of the cracks is mostly perpendicular to the direction of the air surface. Some ice bodies are completely separated from the parent glacier, and obvious signs of displacement can be seen on their rear edges; the side edges and front edges are marked by bedrock with obvious joints or cracks.

[0041] In some embodiments, the area of the hidden danger body is obtained. Specifically, the area of the hidden danger body is calculated based on the boundary of the hidden danger body using the Arcgis analysis function on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w .

[0042] In the model of potential danger volume and ice content: In some embodiments, the volume of the hidden danger volume is ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0043] In some embodiments, the ice content ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0044] Furthermore, , where The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m; ; Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa. r ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in m, r rock is the rock mass density, in kg / m 3 , i is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in degrees; Furthermore, the average thickness of the parent glacier H g The empirical formula is , the maximum glacier thickness H for stress equilibrium imax The calculation formula is ; like H g < H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body is H ice equal H g ; If H g ≥H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body H ice Equal to H imax ; Where, S g is the area of the parent glacier of the potential hazard, in km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass, in Pa, r ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , i is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, in degrees.

[0045] Furthermore, the volume of the ice ; Where, The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H ice The thickness of ice in the hazardous area, in meters.

[0046] described H / L In the model: In some embodiments, ; Where, is the ice content, dimensionless, w is the average width of the valley, in m, is the volume of the hidden danger body, unit: m 3 .

[0047] See also Figure 2 , illustratively, Data fitting results from H / L modified physical model experiments of ice-rock debris flows.

[0048] In the maximum danger range boundary model: In some embodiments, the distance between each point in the valley is 10m~100m, for example, it can be 10m, 20m, 30m, 40m, 50m, 60m, 70m, 80m, 90m, 100m, etc. It can be understood that since the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster process occurs in the valley, the valley range from the hidden danger point to the boundary of the maximum danger range is determined as the ice-rock avalanche debris flow danger range.

[0049] In a third aspect, the present application provides a computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the method for predicting the danger range of a valley-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain as described above.

[0050] The computer device may be a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a PDA, a cloud server, etc. The computer device may interact with the user via a keyboard, a mouse, a remote control, a touchpad, or a voice control device.

[0051] The memory includes at least one type of readable storage medium, and the readable storage medium includes flash memory, hard disk, multimedia card, card-type memory (for example, SD or D interface display memory, etc.), random access memory (RAM), static random access memory (SRAM), read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), magnetic memory, magnetic disk, optical disk, etc. In some embodiments, the memory can be an internal storage unit of the computer device, such as the hard disk or memory of the computer device. In other embodiments, the memory can also be an external storage device of the computer device, such as a plug-in hard disk equipped on the computer device, a smart memory card (SmartMediaCard, SMC), a secure digital (SecureDigital, SD) card, a flash card (FlashCard), etc. Of course, the memory can also include both the internal storage unit of the computer device and its external storage device. In this embodiment, the memory is often used to store the operating system and various application software installed on the computer device, such as the program code of the hazard range prediction method of the valley-type ice rock avalanche debris flow hazard chain. In addition, the memory can also be used to temporarily store various types of data that have been output or are to be output.

[0052] In some embodiments, the processor can be a central processing unit (CPU), a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor, or other data processing chip. The processor is typically used to control the overall operation of the computer device. In this embodiment, the processor is used to execute program code or process data stored in the memory, such as executing the program code for the method for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow hazard chain.

[0053] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor executes the steps of the method for predicting the danger range of a valley-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain as described above.

[0054] The computer-readable storage medium stores an interface display program, which can be executed by at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the steps of the above-mentioned method for predicting the dangerous range of the valley-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain.

[0055] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be implemented by means of software plus the necessary general hardware platform, and of course, by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM / RAM, magnetic disk, optical disk), and includes a number of instructions for enabling a terminal device (which can be a mobile phone, computer, server or network device, etc.) to execute the valley-type ice rock collapse debris flow disaster chain danger range prediction method described in the embodiment of the present application.

[0056] The invention will be further described below with reference to application cases.

[0057] Application Examples Investigation of topographic characteristics of the study area and identification of hidden danger locations For example, a large-scale glacial rockfall debris flow disaster occurred in a gully in my country in 2017. Based on remote sensing data and field investigations before the 2017 event, the method proposed in this application was used to predict the hazard range of glacial rockfall debris flows in the gully. Through remote sensing image analysis and field investigations, the hazard body in the study area was determined to be a gully-type glacial rockfall debris flow hazard body. Based on the characteristics of the glaciers and rock masses in the study area, a glacial rockfall debris flow hazard body was identified in the gully source area. The lithology of this area is gneiss.

[0058] Determination of characteristic parameters of ice-rock avalanche debris flow hazard body in the study area According to remote sensing data, the area of hidden dangers S 563932 m 2 , the average width of the valley w The area of the mother glacier with hidden dangers is 360 m. S g 1.1 km 2 The slope of the hidden danger body is 41.8°; according to the conventional parameters of gneiss and ice, the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass is c ice is 10000 Pa, friction angle α ice is 10°, the density of ice r ice 920 kg / m 3 According to the formula Calculated H g is 37.7 m, according to the formula Calculated H imax is 2.2 m, due toH g＞ H imax ,therefore H ice is 2.2 m; according to The volume of the ice body is calculated to be 1.3 × 10 6 m 3 According to the conventional parameters of gneiss, the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock c rock 50000 Pa, friction angle α rock is 40°, rock density r rock 2600 kg / m 3 According to the formula Calculated H rock is 47.1 m, according to the formula Calculated V rock 26.5 × 10 6 m 3 , according to the formula Calculate the total volume of the hidden danger body V is 27.8 × 10 6 m 3 , according to the formula Calculated ice content f i It is 4.6%.

[0059] Calculating the Danger Range of Movement of Ice and Rock Avalanche Hazards According to the formula Calculated H / L The distance from the hidden danger body to each point in the valley is calculated based on the remote sensing DEM data. H t / L t , find the location of the maximum danger range boundary such as Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the valley range from the hazard point to the boundary of the maximum hazard range is determined as the ice-rock debris flow hazard range.

[0060] Verification of the actual movement of ice-rock debris flows Based on the difference calculation of high-precision DEM before and after the incident, the location of the large-scale ice-rock debris flow disaster collapse in the basin in 2017 is roughly consistent with the location of the hidden danger body predicted by this invention. The volume of material loss in this disaster incident calculated by DEM difference is 30.9 × 10 6 m 3The error between the predicted volume and the present invention is within 10%. The movement path and maximum danger range are close to those predicted by the present invention, proving the accuracy of the movement distance calculation method.

[0061] Figure 3 In the figure, the base map is a remote sensing image of the study area. The geological and geomorphological conditions reflected in the image are used to identify the location of the potential hazards and their potential migration trajectory. Based on this, the method provided by this invention calculates the maximum danger range boundary as the red circle. The actual maximum danger location in this incident is the yellow star, indicating that the present invention has a certain degree of reliability.

[0062] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain, characterized in that: The steps include: Get the average width of the gully; Determine the volume and ice content of the hazardous object; According to the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley, the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice rock avalanche debris flow movement is obtained. H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; Obtain the vertical height difference from the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

2. The method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully type ice rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Obtain the area of the hidden danger body. Specifically: Based on the boundary of the hidden danger body, use the Arcgis analysis function to calculate the area of the hidden danger body on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w and / or The distance between each point in the valley is 10m~100m.

3. The method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully type ice rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The volume of the hidden danger body is ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 ; and / or Ice content ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

4. The method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully type ice rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain according to claim 3 is characterized in that: , where The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m; ； Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa. ρ ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in m, ρ rock is the rock mass density, in kg / m 3 , θ is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in degrees.

5. The method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully type ice rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain according to claim 4 is characterized in that: Average thickness of the parent glacier of the hidden danger body H g The empirical formula is , the maximum glacier thickness H for stress equilibrium imax The calculation formula is ; like H g < H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body is H ice equal H g ; If H g ≥H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body H ice Equal to H imax ; Where, S g is the area of the parent glacier of the potential hazard, in km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass, in Pa, ρ ice is the density of the ice body, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , θ is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, in degrees.

6. The method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully type ice rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain according to claim 5, characterized in that: The volume of the ice body ; Where, The area of the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H ice The thickness of ice in the hazardous area, in meters.

7. The method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain according to claim 6 is characterized in that: ； Where, is the ice content, dimensionless, w is the average width of the valley, in m, is the volume of the hidden danger body, unit: m 3 .

8. A system for predicting the hazard range of a valley-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain, characterized by: include: The average gully width model is used to obtain the average gully width; Hidden danger volume and ice content model, used to determine the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies; H / L The model is used to obtain the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice-rockfall debris flow movement based on the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; The maximum danger range boundary model is used to obtain the vertical height difference from the location of the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

9. Computer device, characterized in that The method comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that A computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor is caused to perform the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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