Method, system and device for predicting dangerous range of gully-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain and storage medium

Abstract

The application discloses a gully type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain risk range prediction method, system, equipment and storage medium, belongs to the field of debris flow disaster prevention, and the method comprises the steps of obtaining the average width of a gully; determining the volume and ice content of a hidden danger body; obtaining the ratio of the vertical height difference and horizontal distance of the whole process of ice-rock avalanche debris flow movement H and horizontal distance L ratio H / L ; obtaining the vertical height difference and horizontal distance ratio of the position of the hidden danger body to the position of each point of the gully H t and horizontal distance L t ratio H t / L t , when H t / L t the first value less than H / L appears, the position is determined as the maximum risk range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the gully. The application provides an efficient, quantitative and spatialized scheme, can accurately quantize the static distribution information of the ice-rock debris flow hidden danger, combines the dynamic influence of the gully terrain, accurately quantizes the maximum risk range geographic spatial information which is intuitive and usable, and can more scientifically support the risk assessment and emergency decision of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of debris flow disaster prevention and control, and in particular relates to a method, system, equipment and storage medium for predicting the dangerous range of a gully-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain. Background Art

[0002] Glacial rockfall debris flows are a unique, high-speed, long-range disaster occurring in high-altitude, cold mountainous areas. These two-phase mixtures of ice and rock often exhibit greater mobility than typical debris flow chains. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, an amplifier of global climate change, experiences increasing temperatures each year. This, combined with its unique structure and complex strata and lithology, provides favorable conditions and internal driving forces for glacial rockfall debris flows.

[0003] Due to the characteristics of ice-rock avalanche debris flows such as being highly concealed and difficult to reach, there is little detailed on-site investigation and limited knowledge of the scope of the disaster. This poses a challenge to the risk prevention and control of high-altitude and long-range ice-rock avalanche debris flow disasters. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, system, equipment and storage medium for predicting the dangerous range of the gully-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain, so as to solve the problem that there is currently no good risk prevention and control technology for ice-rock avalanche debris flow disasters.

[0005] The embodiment of the present application is implemented as follows: a method for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain comprises the following steps:

[0006] Get the average width of the gully;

[0007] Determine the volume and ice content of the hazardous object;

[0008] According to the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley, the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice rock avalanche debris flow movement is obtained. H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ;

[0009] Obtain the vertical height difference from the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / LWhen the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0010] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the area of ​​the hidden danger body is obtained. Specifically, the area of ​​the hidden danger body is calculated based on the boundary of the hidden danger body using the Arcgis analysis function on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w and / or

[0011] The distance between each point in the valley is 10m~100m.

[0012] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the volume of the hidden danger body is ;

[0013] Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 and / or

[0014] Ice content ;

[0015] Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0016] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, , where The area of ​​the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m;

[0017] ;

[0018] Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa. p ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in m, p rock is the rock mass density, in kg / m3 , q is the slope of the location of the hidden body, unit: °, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, unit: °.

[0019] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the average thickness H g of the hidden body parent glacier is , the maximum glacier thickness H imax under stress balance is ;

[0020] If H g < H H imax , the thickness H H of the hidden body ice is equal to ice ; H g ;

[0021] If H g ≥ H imax , the thickness H ice of the hidden body ice is equal to H imax ;

[0022] In the formula, S g is the area of the hidden body parent glacier, unit: km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass, unit: Pa, p ice is the ice density, unit: kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration of gravity, unit m / s 2 , q is the slope of the location of the hidden body, unit: °, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, unit: °.

[0023] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the volume V of the ice body is

[0024] In the formula, is the area of the hidden body, unit: m 2 , H ice is the thickness of the hidden body ice, unit: m.

[0025] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, ;

[0026] In the formula, is the ice content, dimensionless,w is the average width of the valley, in meters, is the volume of the hidden body, in meters 3 .

[0027] Correspondingly, the application also provides a valley-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain hazard range prediction system, comprising:

[0028] a valley average width model, configured to obtain the average width of the valley;

[0029] a hidden body volume and ice content model, configured to determine the volume and ice content of the hidden body;

[0030] H / L a model, configured to obtain the ratio of the vertical height difference to the horizontal distance of the whole process of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow movement according to the volume, ice content and average width of the valley H and horizontal distance L ratio H / L ;

[0031] a maximum hazard range boundary model, configured to obtain the ratio of the vertical height difference to the horizontal distance from the location of the hidden body to the location of each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t ratio H t / L t when H t / L t the first value less than H / L appears, the location is determined as the maximum hazard range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0032] Correspondingly, the application also provides a computer device, comprising a storage and a processor, wherein the storage stores a computer program, and the computer program is executed by the processor to make the processor execute the steps of the above method.

[0033] Correspondingly, the application also provides a computer readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, and the computer program is executed by a processor to make the processor execute the steps of the above method.

[0034] In summary, due to the adoption of the above technical solutions, the application has the following advantages:

[0035] The application firstly identifies the hidden body of the gully-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow through remote sensing image analysis and field investigation, and then obtains the average width of the gully through remote sensing investigation, the regional lithology data through field investigation c rock 、 p rock、 α rock , and assists in judging the position of the hidden body through remote sensing investigation, quantitatively calculates the volume and ice content of the hidden body, and constructs a model of the ratio of the predicted vertical height difference H and the horizontal distance L of the whole process of the gully-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow to the volume and ice content of the hidden body H / L . Compared with the existing method, the application can more scientifically support the risk assessment and emergency decision of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster.

[0036] Through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation, the application obtains the distribution of the typical ice-rock debris flow hidden body in the research area; through hidden body information extraction, the characteristic parameters of the ice-rock debris flow hidden body and the topographic parameters of the gully movement area are obtained; the maximum dangerous range boundary and the dangerous range of the ice-rock debris flow disaster in the gully are determined by using the ice-rock debris flow hidden body H / L calculation formula combined with the H t / L t data of the movement path in the gully. The application provides an efficient, quantitative and spatialized technical solution, which can accurately and quantitatively convert the static distribution information of the ice-rock debris flow hidden body into intuitive and usable maximum dangerous range geographic spatial information combined with the dynamic influence of the gully topography. This fundamentally solves the problems of traditional methods in the determination of the dangerous range, such as fuzziness, subjectivity or oversimplification, and provides indispensable scientific support and decision basis for the risk management, engineering planning, emergency plan formulation and the like of the ice-rock debris flow disaster in high mountain and cold regions, and has significant practical value and popularization prospect.

[0037] The application accurately determines the hidden body boundary and area of the gully-type ice-rock debris flow by adding the hidden body identification step based on remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation in the prediction process, and combining the topographic boundary extraction method; the ice body thickness is calculated by using the method combining the empirical formula and the stress balance formula, and the ice body thickness is considered in the rock mass stress balance formula to calculate the rock mass thickness of the hidden body, so as to quantitatively calculate the volume and ice content of the hidden body, effectively solve the problem of quantitative calculation of the ice content, significantly improve the accuracy of the model input parameters, and solve the problem of rough parameter estimation in the prior art.

[0038] The application introduces an ice content parameter on the basis of the traditional H / L model, and constructs a dimensionless number of the ice content parameter q i V 1 / 3 / w Through fitting the data of the physical model experiment, the following formula is obtained q i V 1 / 3 / w The application establishes a new type of movement distance calculation model suitable for ice rock avalanche debris flow containing ice, overcomes the technical defects that the existing model does not consider the influence of ice component, and significantly improves the scientificity and applicability of the movement distance estimation.

[0039] When calculating the dangerous range, the application considers the topographic information of the movement path in the valley to judge, improves the setting of the spatial constraint condition of the dangerous range discrimination, thereby effectively making up for the misjudgment problem of the dangerous range caused by the fact that the traditional method does not consider the influence of the topography of the movement path, and enhancing the topographic adaptability and accuracy of the prediction result, which is suitable for actual engineering site selection and disaster prevention planning. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0040] Figure 1 The flowchart of the dangerous range prediction method of the ice rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain in the valley of the application is shown in the figure;

[0041] Figure 2 The data fitting result figure of the ice rock debris flow H / L correction model experiment provided by the embodiment of the application is shown in the figure;

[0042] Figure 3 The prediction schematic diagram provided by the application example is shown in the figure. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0043] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the application more clear and understandable, the application will be further described in detail below in combination with the drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the application, and are not used to limit the application.

[0044] The existing technology cannot comprehensively reflect the characteristics of the ice rock mixed medium: the ice content of different ice rock debris flow cases is different, and the ice content can significantly affect the movement distance, the existing method cannot consider the ice content parameter, and the risk discrimination accuracy thereof is insufficient.

[0045] The topographic change of the whole movement path is not considered: the average slope of the whole valley directly used by the existing technology cannot consider the topographic change along the movement path, resulting in large estimation error and low prediction accuracy.

[0046] The technical scheme of the application is as follows:

[0047] See also Figure 1 In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain, comprising the following steps:

[0048] S01, obtain the average width of the valley;

[0049] S02. Determine the volume and ice content of the hazardous object;

[0050] S03. Obtain the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice-rockfall debris flow movement based on the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ;

[0051] S04. Obtain the vertical height difference between the hidden danger body and each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of ice rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0052] This application first identifies the potential hazard of gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow through remote sensing image analysis and field investigation, then obtains the average width of the gully through remote sensing investigation, and obtains regional lithology data through field investigation ( c rock 、 p rock、 α rock ) and assist remote sensing surveys to determine the location of hidden danger bodies, quantitatively calculate the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies, and construct a predicted vertical height difference between the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies and the entire process of ice and rock avalanche debris flow movement H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L Compared with existing methods that rely on empirical valuation, have large errors in key input parameters, and have poor model practicality, this application can more scientifically support risk assessment and emergency decision-making for ice-rock avalanche debris flow disasters.

[0053] The application obtains the distribution of typical ice-rock debris flow hidden bodies in the research area through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation; the characteristic parameters of the ice-rock debris flow hidden bodies and the topographic parameters of the gully movement area are obtained through hidden body information extraction; the ice-rock debris flow hidden body H / L The calculation formula combines the H t / L t Data to determine the maximum dangerous range boundary and dangerous range of the ice-rock debris flow disaster in the gully. The application provides a set of efficient, quantitative and spatialized technical solutions, which can accurately and quantitatively convert the static distribution information of the ice-rock debris flow hidden body into intuitive and usable geographic spatial information of the maximum dangerous range in combination with the dynamic influence of the gully topography. This fundamentally solves the problems of fuzziness, subjectivity or oversimplification in the dangerous range determination of the traditional method, and provides indispensable scientific support and decision basis for the risk management, engineering planning and emergency plan formulation of the ice-rock debris flow disaster in the high mountain and cold region, and has remarkable practical value and popularization prospect.

[0054] The application accurately determines the hidden body boundary and area of the gully-type ice-rock debris flow by adding the hidden body identification step based on remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation in the prediction process in combination with the topographic boundary extraction method; the ice body thickness is calculated by combining the empirical formula and the stress balance formula, and the ice body thickness is considered in the rock body stress balance formula to calculate the rock body thickness of the hidden body, thereby effectively solving the problem of quantitative calculation of the ice content, significantly improving the accuracy of the model input parameters, and solving the problem of rough parameter estimation in the prior art.

[0055] The application introduces the ice content parameter on the basis of the traditional H / L model, constructs a dimensionless number q i V 1 / 3 / w of the ice content parameter, and obtains q i V 1 / 3 / w an empirical formula of H / L by fitting the data of the physical model experiment, and establishes a new movement distance calculation model suitable for ice-rock avalanche debris flow, which overcomes the technical defects that the existing model does not consider the influence of ice composition, and significantly improves the scientificity and applicability of the movement distance estimation.

[0056] When calculating the danger range, this application takes into account the terrain information of the movement path in the valley for judgment, improves the setting of spatial constraint conditions for danger range judgment, and thus effectively compensates for the problem of misjudgment of danger range caused by traditional methods that do not consider the influence of the terrain of the movement path, enhances the terrain adaptability and accuracy of the prediction results, and is suitable for actual engineering site selection and disaster prevention planning.

[0057] In the S01:

[0058] It can be understood that in remote sensing images, the boundary mark of the rear edge of the hidden danger body is the surface development of high-density arc-shaped tensile cracks, which are mostly dark in color and the direction of the cracks is mostly perpendicular to the direction of the air surface. Some ice bodies are completely separated from the parent glacier, and obvious signs of displacement can be seen on their rear edges; the side edges and front edges are marked by bedrock with obvious joints or cracks.

[0059] In some embodiments, the area of ​​the hidden danger body is obtained. Specifically, the area of ​​the hidden danger body is calculated based on the boundary of the hidden danger body using the Arcgis analysis function on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w .

[0060] In the S02:

[0061] In some embodiments, the volume of the hidden danger volume is ;

[0062] Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0063] In some embodiments, the ice content ;

[0064] Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0065] Furthermore, , where The area of ​​the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m;

[0066] ;

[0067] Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, crock C is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, with the unit of Pa, p ice ρ is the density of the ice mass, with the unit of kg / m 3 , g g is the acceleration of gravity, with the unit of m / s 2 , H ice H is the ice thickness of the hidden mass, with the unit of m, p rock ρ is the density of the rock mass, with the unit of kg / m 3 , q β is the slope of the location of the hidden mass, with the unit of °, C is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, with the unit of °;

[0068] Further, the empirical formula of the average thickness H g of the parent glacier of the hidden mass is The calculation formula of the maximum glacier thickness H imax of stress balance is ;

[0069] If H g < H H imax , then the ice thickness H H ice of the hidden mass is equal to H g ;

[0070] If H g ≥ H imax , then the ice thickness H ice of the hidden mass is equal to H imax ;

[0071] In the formula, S g A is the area of the parent glacier of the hidden mass, with the unit of km 2 , c ice C is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, with the unit of Pa, p ice ρ is the density of the ice mass, with the unit of kg / m 3 , g g is the acceleration of gravity, with the unit of m / s 2 , q β is the slope of the location of the hidden mass, with the unit of °, C is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, with the unit of °.

[0072] Further, the volume V of the ice mass is

[0073] In the formula, Area of the hidden body, unit: m 2 , H ice Hidden body ice thickness, unit: m.

[0074] In S03,

[0075] In some embodiments, ;

[0076] In the formula, Ice content, dimensionless, w Average valley width, unit: m, Hidden body volume, unit: m 3 .

[0077] See Figure 2 , illustratively, Fitting results from ice-rock debris flow H / L modified physical model experiment.

[0078] In S04,

[0079] In some embodiments, the distance between each point in the valley is 10m-100m, for example, it can be 10m, 20m, 30m, 40m, 50m, 60m, 70m, 80m, 90m, 100m, etc.

[0080] It can be understood that since the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster process is in the valley, the valley range from the hidden point to the maximum danger range boundary is determined as the ice-rock avalanche debris flow danger range.

[0081] In a second aspect, the embodiments of the present application provide a valley type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain danger range prediction system, comprising:

[0082] A valley average width model is used to obtain the average width of the valley.

[0083] A hidden body volume and ice content model is used to determine the volume and ice content of the hidden body.

[0084] H / L A model is used to obtain the ratio of the predicted vertical height difference and the horizontal distance of the whole process of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow movement according to the volume, ice content and average width of the valley. H and horizontal distance L ratio H / L ;

[0085] A maximum danger range boundary model is used to obtain the vertical height difference and horizontal distance from the hidden body position to the position of each point in the valley. H t and horizontal distance Lt Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is greater than , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley.

[0086] In the valley average width model:

[0087] It can be understood that in remote sensing images, the boundary mark of the rear edge of the hidden danger body is the surface development of high-density arc-shaped tensile cracks, which are mostly dark in color and the direction of the cracks is mostly perpendicular to the direction of the air surface. Some ice bodies are completely separated from the parent glacier, and obvious signs of displacement can be seen on their rear edges; the side edges and front edges are marked by bedrock with obvious joints or cracks.

[0088] In some embodiments, the area of ​​the hidden danger body is obtained. Specifically, the area of ​​the hidden danger body is calculated based on the boundary of the hidden danger body using the Arcgis analysis function on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w .

[0089] In the model of potential danger volume and ice content:

[0090] In some embodiments, the volume of the hidden danger volume is ;

[0091] Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0092] In some embodiments, the ice content ;

[0093] Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 .

[0094] Furthermore, , where The area of ​​the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m;

[0095] ;

[0096] wherein, H rock is the thickness of the rock mass, in m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa, p ice is the density of the ice mass, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration of gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the thickness of the ice mass of the hidden danger, in m, p rock is the density of the rock mass, in kg / m 3 , q is the slope of the location of the hidden danger, in °, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in °;

[0097] Further, the empirical formula of the average thickness H g of the ice mass of the hidden danger is and the maximum thickness H imax of the ice mass of the hidden danger in stress equilibrium is calculated by ;

[0098] If H g < H H imax , the thickness H H ice of the ice mass of the hidden danger is equal to H g ;

[0099] If H g ≥ H imax , the thickness H ice of the ice mass of the hidden danger is equal to H imax ;

[0100] wherein, S g is the area of the ice mass of the hidden danger, in km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa, p ice is the density of the ice mass, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration of gravity, in m / s 2 , q is the slope of the location of the hidden danger, in °, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, in °.

[0101] Further, the volume of the ice body ;

[0102] wherein, is the area of the hidden body, in m 2 , H ice is the thickness of the hidden body, in m.

[0103] The H / L In the model:

[0104] In some embodiments, ;

[0105] wherein, is the ice content, dimensionless, w is the average width of the valley, in m, is the volume of the hidden body, in m 3 .

[0106] Referring to Figure 2 , illustratively, derived from the data fitting results of the H / L modified physical model experiment of the ice-rock debris flow.

[0107] In the maximum danger range boundary model:

[0108] In some embodiments, the distance interval between each point of the valley is 10m-100m, for example, it can be 10m, 20m, 30m, 40m, 50m, 60m, 70m, 80m, 90m, 100m, etc.

[0109] It can be understood that, since the ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster process is in the valley, the valley range from the hidden point to the maximum danger range boundary is determined as the danger range of the ice-rock avalanche debris flow.

[0110] In a third aspect, the present application provides a computer device, comprising a storage and a processor, wherein the storage stores a computer program, and the computer program is executed by the processor to make the processor execute the steps of the valley-type ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster chain danger range prediction method as described above.

[0111] The computer device can be a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a palm computer, a cloud server, or the like. The computer device can interact with a user through a keyboard, a mouse, a remote controller, a touchpad, a voice control device, or the like.

[0112] The memory includes at least one type of readable storage medium, such as a flash memory, a hard disk, a multimedia card, a card-type memory (e.g., an SD or D interface display memory, etc.), a random access memory (RAM), a static random access memory (SRAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), a programmable read-only memory (PROM), a magnetic memory, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc. In some embodiments, the memory can be an internal storage unit of the computer device, such as a hard disk or a memory of the computer device. In other embodiments, the memory can also be an external storage device of the computer device, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, etc. equipped on the computer device. Of course, the memory can also include both the internal storage unit and the external storage device of the computer device. In the present embodiment, the memory is commonly used to store an operating system and various application software installed on the computer device, such as program codes of the method for predicting a dangerous range of a debris flow disaster chain of a valley-type ice-rock avalanche, etc. In addition, the memory can also be used to temporarily store various data that have been output or will be output.

[0113] The processor can be a central processing unit (CPU), a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor, or other data processing chip in some embodiments. The processor is generally used to control the overall operation of the computer device. In the present embodiment, the processor is used to run program codes or process data stored in the memory, such as running program codes of the method for predicting a dangerous range of a debris flow disaster chain of a valley-type ice-rock avalanche.

[0114] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, causes the processor to perform the steps of the method for predicting a dangerous range of a debris flow disaster chain of a valley-type ice-rock avalanche as described above.

[0115] In the fourth aspect, the computer readable storage medium stores an interface display program, which can be executed by at least one processor to cause the at least one processor to perform the steps of the method for predicting a dangerous range of a debris flow disaster chain of a valley-type ice-rock avalanche as described above.

[0116] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be implemented by means of software plus the necessary general hardware platform, and of course, by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM / RAM, magnetic disk, optical disk), and includes a number of instructions for enabling a terminal device (which can be a mobile phone, computer, server or network device, etc.) to execute the valley-type ice rock collapse debris flow disaster chain danger range prediction method described in the embodiment of the present application.

[0117] The invention will be further described below with reference to application cases.

[0118] Application Examples

[0119] Investigation of topographic characteristics of the study area and identification of hidden danger locations

[0120] For example, a large-scale glacial rockfall debris flow disaster occurred in a gully in my country in 2017. Based on remote sensing data and field investigations before the 2017 event, the method proposed in this application was used to predict the hazard range of glacial rockfall debris flows in the gully. Through remote sensing image analysis and field investigations, the hazard body in the study area was determined to be a gully-type glacial rockfall debris flow hazard body. Based on the characteristics of the glaciers and rock masses in the study area, a glacial rockfall debris flow hazard body was identified in the gully source area. The lithology of this area is gneiss.

[0121] Determination of characteristic parameters of ice-rock avalanche debris flow hazard body in the study area

[0122] According to remote sensing data, the area of ​​hidden dangers S 563932 m 2 , the average width of the valley w The area of ​​the mother glacier with hidden dangers is 360 m. S g 1.1 km 2 The slope of the hidden danger body is 41.8°; according to the conventional parameters of gneiss and ice, the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass is c ice is 10000 Pa, friction angle α ice is 10°, the density of ice p ice 920 kg / m 3 According to the formula Calculated H g is 37.7 m, according to the formula Calculated Himax is 2.2 m, due to H g＞ H imax ,therefore H ice is 2.2 m; according to The volume of the ice body is calculated to be 1.3 × 10 6 m 3 According to the conventional parameters of gneiss, the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock c rock 50000 Pa, friction angle α rock is 40°, rock density p rock 2600 kg / m 3 According to the formula Calculated H rock is 47.1 m, according to the formula Calculated V rock 26.5 × 10 6 m 3 , according to the formula Calculate the total volume of the hidden danger body V is 27.8 × 10 6 m 3 , according to the formula Calculated ice content q i It is 4.6%.

[0123] Calculating the Danger Range of Movement of Ice and Rock Avalanche Potential Bodies

[0124] According to the formula Calculated H / L The distance from the hidden danger body to each point in the valley is calculated based on the remote sensing DEM data. H t / L t , find the location of the maximum danger range boundary such as Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the valley range from the hazard point to the boundary of the maximum hazard range is determined as the ice-rock debris flow hazard range.

[0125] Verification of the actual movement of ice-rock debris flows

[0126] According to the difference calculation of high-precision DEM before and after the event, the large ice-rock debris flow disaster collapse position in the basin in 2017 is roughly consistent with the position of the hidden danger body predicted by the application. The source loss volume of the disaster event is 30.9 × 10 6 m 3 , and the error of the predicted volume is within 10% of the application. And its movement path, maximum danger range and the prediction of the application are close, which proves the accuracy of the movement distance calculation method.

[0127] Figure 3 In the middle, the base map is the remote sensing image of the study area, and the position of the hidden danger body and the possible migration track of the hidden danger are distinguished according to the geological and geomorphological conditions reflected by the image. On this basis, the method provided by the application is used to calculate that the boundary of the maximum danger range is the red circle, and the farthest dangerous position actually moved in this event is the yellow star, and the content of the application has a certain reliability.

[0128] The above only describes the preferred embodiments of the application and does not limit the application. Any modification, equivalent replacement and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the application shall be included in the protection scope of the application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the hazard range of a gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain, characterized in that: The steps include: Get the average width of the gully; Determine the volume and ice content of the hazardous object; According to the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley, the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice rock avalanche debris flow movement is obtained. H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; Obtain the vertical height difference from the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley; The volume of the hidden danger body is ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 ; Ice content ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 ; , where The area of ​​the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m; ； Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa. ρ ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in m, ρ rock is the rock mass density, in kg / m 3 , θ is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in degrees; Average thickness of the parent glacier of the hidden danger body H g The empirical formula is , the maximum glacier thickness H for stress equilibrium imax The calculation formula is ; like H g < H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body is H ice equal H g ; If H g ≥H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body H ice Equal to H imax ; Where, S g is the area of ​​the parent glacier of the potential hazard, in km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass, in Pa, ρ ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , θ is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, in degrees; The volume of the ice body ; Where, The area of ​​the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in meters; ； Where, is the ice content, dimensionless, w is the average width of the valley, in m, is the volume of the hidden danger body, unit: m 3 .

2. The method for predicting the dangerous range of the gully-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Obtain the area of ​​the hidden danger body. Specifically: Based on the boundary of the hidden danger body, use the Arcgis analysis function to calculate the area of ​​the hidden danger body on the remote sensing image. ; Calculate the average width of the valley based on remote sensing images w and / or The distance between each point in the valley is 10m~100m.

3. The hazard range prediction system for the valley-type ice-rockfall debris flow disaster chain is characterized by: include: The average gully width model is used to obtain the average gully width; Hidden danger volume and ice content model, used to determine the volume and ice content of hidden danger bodies; H / L The model is used to obtain the predicted vertical height difference of the entire process of ice-rockfall debris flow movement based on the volume of the hidden danger body, ice content and average width of the valley H and horizontal distance L Ratio H / L ; The maximum danger range boundary model is used to obtain the vertical height difference from the location of the hidden danger body to each point in the valley H t and horizontal distance L t Ratio H t / L t ,when H t / L t The first less than H / L When the value of is , the location is determined to be the maximum dangerous range boundary of ice-rock avalanche debris flow disaster in the valley; The volume of the hidden danger body is ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 ; Ice content ; Where, is the volume of the ice body, unit: m 3 , is the volume of the rock mass, unit: m 3 ; , where The area of ​​the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m; ； Where, H rock is the rock mass thickness, unit: m, c rock is the cohesion between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in Pa. ρ ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in m, ρ rock is the rock mass density, in kg / m 3 , θ is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the rock mass and the stable bedrock, in degrees; Average thickness of the parent glacier of the hidden danger body H g The empirical formula is , the maximum glacier thickness H for stress equilibrium imax The calculation formula is ; like H g < H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body is H ice equal H g ; If H g ≥H imax , then the ice thickness of the hazard body H ice Equal to H imax ; Where, S g is the area of ​​the parent glacier of the potential hazard, in km 2 , c ice is the cohesion between the glacier and the rock mass, in Pa, ρ ice is the density of the ice, in kg / m 3 , g is the acceleration due to gravity, in m / s 2 , θ is the slope of the hidden danger body, in degrees, is the friction angle between the glacier and the rock mass, in degrees; The volume of the ice body ; Where, The area of ​​the hidden danger body, unit: m 2 , H ice is the ice thickness of the hazard body, in meters; ； Where, is the ice content, dimensionless, w is the average width of the valley, in m, is the volume of the hidden danger body, unit: m 3 .

4. Computer equipment, characterized in that The device comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the method according to claim 1 or 2.

5. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that A computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor is caused to perform the steps of the method according to claim 1 or 2.

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