Method for calculating maximum allowable emission of industrial park based on emission balance

Abstract

The application discloses a maximum allowable emission calculation method of an industrial park based on emission increase-decrease balance, and comprises the following steps: S1, quantifying environmental concentration changes caused by emission reduction of atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park; S2, simulating environmental concentration changes caused by a response sequence of newly-added emission sources in the industrial park; S3, determining an environmental concentration increment space of atmospheric pollutants of a site in the industrial park; S4, establishing a compound response relationship of the industrial park; S5, solving the maximum allowable emission of the site in the industrial park under the constraint of the environmental concentration increment of atmospheric pollutants; and S6, evaluating the site influence checking calculation. The application constructs a dynamic balance relationship of emission increase-decrease of pollution sources in and outside the industrial park, realizes accurate control of the total amount of pollutant emissions in the industrial park through scientific measurement and dynamic regulation, and provides technical support for green development of the industrial park.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of air quality regulation, and particularly relates to a maximum allowable emission amount calculation method for an industrial park based on emission increase-decrease balance. BACKGROUND

[0002] With the continuous advancement of China's industrialization process, industrial parks, as an important carrier of industrial agglomeration development, not only promote regional economic growth, but also face severe challenges of atmospheric environmental pollution. How to ensure economic development while achieving sustainable improvement of air environmental quality in the park has become a difficult problem to be solved.

[0003] Traditional total pollutant emission control methods are often based on the theory of environmental capacity, using source lists and atmospheric diffusion models to calculate the atmospheric environmental capacity of the park. However, the traditional method mainly focuses on the emission reduction of pollution sources in the park, adopts a "one-size-fits-all" mode, and is difficult to take into account the differences and development needs of different regions and industries, which may lead to a situation of "reducing emissions without increasing efficiency", and is difficult to effectively solve the contradiction between park development and environmental protection, and has certain limitations. Therefore, it is necessary to explore a more scientific, precise and dynamic pollutant emission control method to achieve the coordinated development of economic development and environmental protection. SUMMARY

[0004] The purpose of the present application is to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art and provide a maximum allowable emission amount calculation method for an industrial park based on emission increase-decrease balance.

[0005] The purpose of the present application is achieved by the following technical solutions: In a first aspect of the present application, a maximum allowable emission amount calculation method for an industrial park based on emission increase-decrease balance is provided, comprising the following steps:

[0006] S1: Quantifying the environmental concentration change caused by the emission reduction of the surrounding atmospheric pollution sources of the industrial park, comprising: setting a mask area to establish an industrial park surrounding buffer zone range mark in the simulation grid; adjusting the emission inventory coefficient in the mask area corresponding to the emission reduction coefficient of different pollution sources; simulating the atmospheric pollution source emission inventory before and after emission reduction using an air quality model, and calculating the environmental concentration reduction of different monitoring stations caused by the emission reduction of atmospheric pollution sources;

[0007] S2: simulate the environmental concentration changes caused by the response sequence of the newly added emission sources in the industrial park, including: taking the industrial park as a unit, according to the types of the planned land in the industrial park, gridizing the newly added emissions in the industrial park, and establishing a sequenced grid emission inventory applicable to the simulation of the air quality model; for the sequenced grid emission inventory with different unit area emission intensity, on the basis of the urban atmospheric pollution source emission inventory, taking the sequenced grid emission inventory as the emission increment, using the air quality model to complete the simulation of the corresponding sequenced grid emission inventory respectively, calculating the difference between the simulation results of each different emission sequenced grid emission inventory and the simulation results of the urban atmospheric pollution source emission inventory respectively, and obtaining the corresponding environmental concentration changes under all industrial park emission inventory increments;

[0008] S3: determine the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration increment space of the industrial park site, including: combining the environmental concentration reduction of the quantitative assessment of the emission reduction effect of the atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park calculated in step S1, the current situation of the industrial park monitoring site and the target atmospheric pollution concentration value in a specific year, determining the upper limit value of the concentration increase caused by the increased pollution emission of the industrial park as the basis for calculating the maximum allowable emission;

[0009] S4: establish the composite response relationship of the industrial park, including: combining the environmental concentration changes corresponding to the emission inventory increments of different unit area emission intensity and corresponding industrial parks in step S2, calculating the response function relationship of each monitoring site and each industrial park, different pollutant emission increments and environmental concentration; and integrating the response functions of different industrial parks to obtain the composite response function of the emission of different industrial parks to the pollutant concentration of a specific monitoring site;

[0010] S5: solve the maximum allowable emission under the constraint of the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration increment of the industrial park site, including: using the integrated composite response function in step S4, under the condition of the concentration increase upper limit value caused by the increased pollution emission of the industrial park in step S3, inputting the emission of different pollutants in different industrial parks to solve the concentration contribution of different industrial parks to a specific environmental monitoring point;

[0011] S6: evaluation site impact verification, including: using the composite response function, inputting the maximum allowable emission data of different parks obtained by solving, solving the pollutant concentration changes of the evaluation environmental evaluation site, and verifying whether it meets the pre-set concentration limit value of the evaluation environmental evaluation site in step S3.

[0012] Further, in step S1, the quantitative environmental concentration changes caused by the emission reduction of the atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park include:

[0013] S11: Using geographic information system (GIS) software, an industrial park area buffer is established for the industrial park boundary, and the required buffer radius is set according to the local emission reduction potential and concentration reduction demand;

[0014] S12: According to the relationship between the center longitude and latitude of the air quality simulation grid and the industrial park buffer, the simulation grid within the buffer is screened, and an emission reduction mask file for the industrial park buffer is established in units of industrial parks;

[0015] S13: According to the emission reduction ratio of different industrial parks, an emission inventory adjustment file is prepared, and the emission inventory data of the air quality model is adjusted using an emission model combined with the emission reduction ratio of the emission inventory; the emission reduction coefficient corresponding to different pollution sources is used to adjust the emission inventory coefficient in the mask area;

[0016] S14: Air quality simulation is carried out using the emission inventory before and after emission reduction, respectively, to obtain the concentration C pe0 of the e pollutant before emission reduction in the pth industrial park and the concentration C pe1 after emission reduction; the pollutant concentration simulation results are corrected using the environmental monitoring site concentration C peo , and the relative concentration change is taken to calculate the pollutant concentration reduction ΔC pe caused by emission reduction according to the following formula:

[0017]

[0018] For the evaluation site E of the industrial park, the emission reduction concentration is calculated after correction using the evaluation site concentration C Ee0 before emission reduction and the concentration C Ee1 after emission reduction, and the monitoring concentration C Eeo .

[0019] .

[0020] Further, in step S2, the simulated environmental concentration change caused by the response sequence of the newly added emission source in the industrial park includes:

[0021] S21: Taking the industrial park as the boundary, an emission inventory data is established combined with the land use type structure in the industrial park;

[0022] S22: Based on historical data, an industrial source emission time allocation sequence is established, covering monthly allocation coefficient Fac_m, weekly allocation coefficient Fac_w and hourly allocation coefficient Fac_h; a species allocation coefficient Fac_s is established to realize the allocation of complex pollutants to air quality simulation components;

[0023] S23: A model for processing the increased emissions of the industrial park is used to realize the conversion of the annual emission data of the industrial park under a specific emission intensity to the hourly emission data with time variation, and to combine the increased emissions of the industrial park into the basic emission inventory data of the air quality model; the pth industrial park has an emission intensity per unit area EMIS pa The component l emission data is calculated as follows:

[0024]

[0025] S24: For different industrial parks, different emission intensities per unit area EMIS pa An emission sequence is established, the basic inventory of the air quality model is operated by using the industrial park emission increase model, the hourly emission data of each pollutant component of the newly added industrial park emissions are added to the corresponding pollutant components in the basic emission inventory of the air quality model, and the scenario emission inventory data are obtained;

[0026] The air quality model is called to complete the simulation of the basic emission inventory and the different scenario emission inventory data, and the simulation concentration C pec of the cth scenario is calculated by using the emission inventory according to the following formula: peb The concentration ΔC pea of the pollutant response sequence of the newly added emission source e of the pth industrial park in the pth industrial park is calculated as follows:

[0027]

[0028] For the evaluation site E, the scenario emission inventory concentration C Eec and the basic scenario simulation concentration C Eeb of the evaluation site E corresponding to the simulation grid are extracted, and the corresponding pollutant response sequence concentration ΔC Eea is calculated as follows:

[0029] .

[0030] Further, in step S21, in the absence of detailed planning, the average distribution in the industrial land is considered, the unit emission intensity emission inventory data with an emission intensity of 1 t / km 2 ·a is established, and the reference emission inventory is formed.

[0031] Further, in step S3, the determination of the spatial increment of the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration of the industrial park site comprises:

[0032] In combination with the pollutant concentration reduction obtained by the quantitative evaluation of the emission reduction effect of the industrial park surrounding atmospheric pollution sources, the present concentration C peo0and the target air pollution concentration value C for a specific year peoy Determine the limit for the increase in concentration caused by increased pollution emissions in the industrial park. As the basis for calculating the maximum permissible emissions, the calculation formula is as follows:

[0033]

[0034] Among them, the current concentration of C at site p in the industrial park is... peo0 The concentration C at the industrial park environmental monitoring station in step S1 corresponds to... peo .

[0035] Furthermore, in step S4, establishing the composite response relationship of the industrial park includes:

[0036] S41: Combining different EMIS pa Simulation results of intensity and corresponding industrial park emissions' contribution concentration to monitoring stations in the park. Using cubic natural spline interpolation, the response function relationship C between emission increments and environmental concentrations for different environmental monitoring stations, industrial parks, and different pollutants was obtained. pe =f P (EMIS pa(x) Specifically, this includes:

[0037] The relationship function f between new emissions from industrial parks and environmental concentration response at park sites p (EMIS pax The establishment of ) requires the interpolation process to be based on different emission intensities per unit area of ​​EMIS. pa The concentration ΔC corresponding to the air quality simulation results of the corresponding response sequence of the park stations pea Divide the simulation results into segments and calculate the interpolation point spacing for the nth segment in sequence. For example, the first segment may require the use of 0 and EMIS. pa(1) ΔC pea(1) Establish a piecewise fitting function:

[0038]

[0039] The key to establishing the response function lies in solving for the coefficients of each segment a, b, c, and d; since the fitting function is continuous, its solution results at each segment point and at the breakpoints... Given equal values, establish 2n equations, where EMIS pa(n) All are known, that is:

[0040]

[0041]

[0042]

[0043] …

[0044]

[0045] Since the fitting function is continuous and derivable, the first derivative at each segment point is equal, and the following n-1 equations are established:

[0046]

[0047]

[0048] …

[0049]

[0050] At the same time, the second derivative of the function at each segment point is equal, and the following n-1 equations are established:

[0051]

[0052]

[0053] …

[0054]

[0055] Finally, the second derivative of the first point and the last point is 0, as a boundary condition, that is:

[0056]

[0057]

[0058] Since EMIS pa(1) and ΔC pea(1) in the above equations are the unit area park emission intensity input by the model and the corresponding park site concentration increment calculated by the model, respectively, both are known quantities, so after the above equations are combined into a system of equations, the linear system of equations can be solved to obtain the a, b, c, d coefficients corresponding to different segments, and f p (EMIS pa(x) ) is obtained, and for the function relationship between industrial park emissions and evaluation sites, replace EMIS in the formula with , and the corresponding function relationship f E (EMIS pa(x) ) is obtained;

[0059] S42: Integrate the response functions of different parks to obtain the composite response function of different industrial park emissions on the pollutant concentration of a specific environmental monitoring site; the contribution concentration C eThe concentration increment C of the corresponding station is calculated according to the following formula pa(x) , and the emission intensity EMIS of different industrial parks is substituted into the function relationship established in step S4 e .

[0060] .

[0061] Further, in step S5, the maximum allowable emission of the industrial park station under the constraint of the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration increment is solved, including:

[0062] Based on the function relationship established in step S4, the emission intensity data EMIS of different industrial parks are substituted pa(x) to solve, since it involves adjustment of the pollution emission intensity of multiple industrial parks, the same pollutant concentration increment C e often corresponds to multiple park emission combinations, in order to cover the emission increment space of different parks, the maximum constraint exhaustive method is used to solve;

[0063] Using the response function establishment method of step S4, the dependent variable and the independent variable are exchanged to obtain the function relationship between the emission intensity change and the concentration increment, that is , and the function is used with the corresponding concentration increase limit value in step S3 paxm to calculate the maximum emission EMIS of only this park, which is the upper limit of the park emission increment, and then the number of response equation solving times S is set, and the increment step is calculated according to the following formula:

[0064]

[0065] EMIS paxm is established according to the step , the emission increment sequence is orthogonalized according to the industrial park to form an input data set, which is substituted into the function relationship established in step S4 to solve and calculate, and the number of calculations required is related to the solving times S and the number of parks p, that is times.

[0066] Further, in step S6, the evaluation station influence checking includes:

[0067] The solving results obtained in step S5 are analyzed, and the results are selected as the solving results that meet the conditions, and the final unit area emission increment of different parks is selected according to the value trend of different parks in combination with the actual park development planning , the function relationship f E (EMIS pax ) between the park emission and the evaluation station is established by the method described in step S4, and the current concentration C Eeo0 of the evaluation station, the target concentration C Eeoy, emission reduction concentration Conduct evaluation site concentration influence calculation, if It is considered that the park emission increase does not cause the air quality of the evaluation site to deteriorate, otherwise the park emission is reduced to ensure the comprehensive concentration contribution to the evaluation site Low than 0:

[0068] .

[0069] The beneficial effects of the present application are:

[0070] In an exemplary embodiment of the present application, the pollutant concentration reduction space brought by the emission reduction of pollution sources around the industrial park is fully utilized to offset the pollutant concentration increase caused by the newly added pollution emission of the industrial park, and the development of the park industry is realized under the premise of not causing the deterioration of the atmospheric environment status. The core of this method is to build a dynamic balance relationship between the increase and decrease of pollution sources inside and outside the park, to realize the precise control of the total amount of pollutant emission in the park through scientific measurement and dynamic regulation, and to provide technical support for the green development of the park. Subsequently, while ensuring the environmental quality, the maximum value of the pollution emission increment required for the development of the park enterprises can be calculated by retiring high-pollution and low-output emission sources, so as to help the green and high-quality development. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0071] Figure 1 A flowchart of the maximum allowable emission amount calculation method of the industrial park based on the emission increase and decrease balance provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0072] Figure 2 A detailed step schematic diagram of the maximum allowable emission amount calculation method of the industrial park based on the emission increase and decrease balance provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0073] Figure 3 A buffer zone demarcation schematic diagram of the industrial park provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0074] Figure 4 A buffer zone emission reduction mask file file schematic diagram of the industrial park provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0075] Figure 5 A function fitting schematic diagram provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present application is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0076] The technical solutions of the present application will be described clearly and completely in combination with the drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present application, not all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor are within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0077] In the description of the present application, it should be noted that the directions or positional relationships belonging to the indications of "center", "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "inner", "outer" and the like are the directions or positional relationships described based on the drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present application and simplifying the description, and therefore cannot be understood as indicating or implying that the devices or elements referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and therefore cannot be understood as limiting the present application. In addition, "first", "second" are only for the purpose of description, and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance.

[0078] In the description of the present application, it should be noted that, unless otherwise explicitly specified and limited, the terms "mounting", "connecting", "connecting" should be understood in a broad sense, for example, it can be fixedly connected, or it can be detachably connected, or integrally connected; it can be mechanically connected, or it can be electrically connected; it can be directly connected, or it can be indirectly connected through an intermediate medium; it can be the communication inside two elements. For those skilled in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present application can be understood according to the specific circumstances.

[0079] In addition, the technical features involved in the different embodiments of the present application described below can be combined with each other as long as there is no conflict.

[0080] Reference Figure 1 , Figure 1 A flow chart of the maximum allowable emission calculation method of an industrial park based on emission increase and decrease balance provided in an exemplary embodiment of the present application is shown, which includes the following steps:

[0081] S1: quantifying the environmental concentration change caused by the reduction of atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park, including: setting a mask area to establish an industrial park surrounding buffer zone range mark in the simulation grid; adjusting the emission inventory coefficient in the mask area corresponding to the reduction coefficient of different pollution sources, simulating the atmospheric pollution source emission inventory before and after reduction by using an air quality model, and calculating the environmental concentration reduction of different monitoring stations caused by the reduction of atmospheric pollution sources;

[0082] S2: simulate the environmental concentration changes caused by the response sequence of the newly added emission sources in the industrial park, including: based on the type of planned land in the industrial park, grid the newly added emissions in the industrial park, and establish a sequenced grid emission inventory applicable to air quality model simulation; for the sequenced grid emission inventory with different unit area emission intensity, on the basis of the city atmospheric pollution source emission inventory, taking the sequenced grid emission inventory as the emission increment, using the air quality model to complete the simulation of the corresponding sequenced grid emission inventory respectively, calculating the difference between the simulation results of each different emission sequenced grid emission inventory and the simulation results of the city atmospheric pollution source emission inventory, to obtain the corresponding environmental concentration changes under all industrial park emission inventory increments;

[0083] S3: determine the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration increment space of the industrial park site, including: combining the environmental concentration reduction of the quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of the reduction of the surrounding atmospheric pollution sources in step S1, the current situation of the industrial park monitoring site and the target atmospheric pollution concentration value in a specific year, determining the upper limit value of the concentration increase caused by the increased pollution emissions of the industrial park as the basis for calculating the maximum allowable emission;

[0084] S4: establish the composite response relationship of the industrial park, including: combining the different unit area emission intensity and the corresponding environmental concentration changes under the corresponding industrial park emission inventory increment in step S2, calculating the response function relationship of each monitoring site and each industrial park, different pollutant emission increment and environmental concentration; at the same time, integrating the response functions of different industrial parks to obtain the composite response function of the emissions of different industrial parks on the pollutant concentration of the specific monitoring site;

[0085] S5: solve the maximum allowable emission under the constraint of the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration increment of the industrial park site, including: using the integrated composite response function in step S4, under the condition of the concentration increase upper limit value caused by the increased pollution emissions of the industrial park in step S3, inputting the emission amount of different pollutants in different industrial parks to solve the concentration contribution of different industrial parks to the specific environmental monitoring point;

[0086] S6: evaluation site impact verification, including: using the composite response function, inputting the maximum allowable emission amount of different parks obtained by solving, solving the pollutant concentration change of the evaluation environmental evaluation site, and verifying whether it meets the pre-set concentration limit value of the evaluation environmental evaluation site in step S3.

[0087] Specifically, in the present exemplary embodiment, the problem of calculating the pollution emission increment required for the development of the industrial park is solved through the dynamic balance of the increased emission and the reduced emission, and a composite response model of the mutual influence of multiple park emissions can be established to realize the analysis of the mutual influence between industrial parks.

[0088] Specifically, on the one hand, in steps S1 and S3, the air quality model is used to carry out environmental concentration reduction evaluation brought by park surrounding pollutant emission reduction, quantify the emission reduction effect of the pollution source, and determine the available environmental pollutant concentration limit value by combining the current concentration and target concentration of the environmental pollutants at the park site and the control site, so as to determine the upper limit of the environmental concentration increase caused by the industrial park emission increase; on the other hand, in steps S2 and S4, a virtual atmospheric pollution source emission inventory is established for the newly added industrial emission plot in the industrial park, an emission sequence is established, the environmental pollutant concentration corresponding to different emission sequences is simulated, and a response function of the environmental concentration of different parks is fitted. Finally, in steps S5 and S6, the response functions of different industrial parks to different evaluation sites are integrated to obtain a composite response function, the maximum allowable emission of the industrial park is solved by the concentration limit of the industrial park monitoring site, and the maximum allowable emission of the industrial park is verified and adjusted by using the concentration limit of the evaluation site.

[0089] In summary, the example embodiment proposes a maximum allowable emission calculation method based on dynamic composite balance of industrial park emission increase and reduction, which aims to make full use of the pollutant concentration reduction space brought by the reduction of pollution sources around the industrial park, offset the increase of pollutant concentration caused by the newly added pollution emission in the industrial park, and realize the development of the park industry without causing deterioration of the atmospheric environment. The core of the method is to build a dynamic balance relationship between the increase and reduction of pollution sources inside and outside the park, to realize the precise control of the total amount of pollutant emission in the park through scientific measurement and dynamic regulation, and to provide technical support for the green development of the park. Subsequently, while ensuring the environmental quality, the maximum value of the pollution emission increment required for the development of the park enterprises can be calculated by retiring high-pollution and low-output emission sources, so as to promote the green and high-quality development.

[0090] The following will elaborate on each step in detail. For detailed step flow, please refer to Figure 2 :

[0091] More preferably, in an example embodiment, in step S1, the quantitative evaluation of the emission reduction effect of the atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park is realized. Through regional mask, the park surrounding buffer zone range in the simulation grid is marked, the reduction of the industrial park surrounding pollutant emission is realized through different pollution source corresponding reduction coefficient, so as to simulate the atmospheric pollution source emission inventory before and after the reduction by using the air quality model, and calculate the environmental concentration change caused by the atmospheric pollution source reduction at different observation points. Corresponding to the "reduction effect evaluation" part in Figure 2 .

[0092] Specifically, the quantitative evaluation of the environmental concentration change caused by the atmospheric pollution source reduction around the industrial park comprises:

[0093] S11: Utilize Geographic Information System (GIS) software to establish a buffer zone for the industrial park area, based on local emission reduction potential ( Figure 2 The "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section analyzes the emission reduction potential and sets the required buffer radius for concentration reduction needs. Figure 2 (Regarding the "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section, which defines the emission reduction buffer zone, considering that pollution emissions primarily affect nearby areas, the radius of the buffer zone can be set at 2-5 km. One specific implementation method is as follows...) Figure 3 As shown;

[0094] S12: As Figure 4 As shown, based on the relationship between the latitude and longitude of the air quality simulation grid center and the industrial park buffer zone, the simulation grid within the buffer zone is filtered, and an emission reduction mask file for the industrial park buffer zone is established, taking the industrial park as the unit.

[0095] S13: Prepare emission inventory adjustment documents based on the emission reduction ratios of different industrial parks. Figure 2 The "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section of the document outlines the preparation of regional emission reduction scenario documents, using emission models combined with emission inventory reduction ratios to adjust the air quality model emission inventory data. Figure 2 The emission reduction scenario list in the "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section of the document; where the emission reduction coefficients corresponding to different pollution sources are adjusted to the emission inventory adjustment coefficients within the masked area (those outside the mask are set to 1);

[0096] S14: Utilize the emissions reduction data before ( Figure 2 The basic emission inventory in the "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section and the emission inventory after emission reduction ( Figure 2 The emission reduction inventory in the "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section of the document is used to conduct air quality simulations. Figure 2 The CMAQ / CAMx air quality model (used in the "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section) was used to obtain the pre-reduction concentration C of pollutant e in the p-th industrial park. pe0 and the concentration C after emission reduction pe1 Combined with the concentration of C at the environmental monitoring stations in the industrial park peo The pollutant concentration simulation results were corrected, and the relative concentration change was taken. The pollutant concentration reduction ΔC caused by the emission reduction was calculated according to the following formula. pe ( Figure 2 The emission reduction concentration at the park's monitoring stations is included in the "Emission Reduction Effectiveness Assessment" section. ):

[0097]

[0098] For the emission reduction concentration at assessment site E in the industrial park, the pre-reduction concentration C at the assessment site is used. Ee0 and the concentration C after emission reduction Ee1 Evaluation site monitoring concentration CEeo , the calculation is revised Figure 2 The evaluation site in the "emission reduction effect evaluation" section of the present application reduces the concentration of emission reduction ):

[0099] .

[0100] Among them, it should be noted that:

[0101] (1) The mask file and the air quality emission inventory are corresponded in space. The inventory in the mask range is adjusted according to the emission reduction ratio, and then the environmental concentration change caused by the emission reduction of the atmospheric pollution source is simulated to realize the quantification of the emission reduction;

[0102] (2) The main idea of the present exemplary embodiment is to use the decrease of pollutant concentration in the surrounding area of the park caused by the emission reduction of the pollution source to offset the increase of pollutant concentration caused by the new emission of the park, so as to realize the development of the park industry under the premise of not causing the deterioration of the atmospheric environment, and to provide the emission reduction of the surrounding area for the park development, therefore, the mask file is used for emission reduction, and the emission of the industry is mainly increased, so there is a specific park boundary, therefore, the mask file is not needed for the subsequent emission increase.

[0103] (3) Figure 3 The vector diagram of the mask file for the emission reduction area in the model is only the mask range, and in steps S13 and S14, the emission inventory within the range is screened according to the range, and the emission inventory within the range is adjusted according to the emission reduction ratio. After adjustment, the simulation is carried out by inputting the model, and the difference between the simulation results of the inventory before and after adjustment is obtained, that is, C peo -C pel .

[0104] (4) The simulated concentration in step S14 is the simulation result, and the simulation result is the grid result. The simulation result of the grid point is extracted using the latitude and longitude of the site, that is, the corresponding site simulation concentration.

[0105] More preferably, in an exemplary embodiment, the industrial park new emission source response sequence simulation in step S2 is used to realize the sequential simulation of the response of the new emission of the industrial park. The emission inventory is established through this step, and the air quality simulation is completed. Corresponding to Figure 2 The "emission increase impact analysis" section in the present application.

[0106] Specifically, the simulation of the environmental concentration change caused by the sequence of the new emission source of the industrial park includes:

[0107] S21: Taking the industrial park as the boundary, the emission inventory data is established combined with the land use type structure in the industrial park Figure 2The industrial park boundary is gridded, and the unit emission intensity list is made in the "increased emission impact analysis" section; in a specific exemplary embodiment, in the absence of detailed planning, the average distribution within the industrial land is considered, and the emission intensity is established as 1 t / km 2 The unit emission intensity emission list data of a is formed to form the baseline emission list.

[0108] S22: Based on historical data, establish an industrial source emission time allocation sequence, covering monthly allocation coefficient Fac_m, weekly allocation coefficient Fac_w, and hourly allocation coefficient Fac_h; establish species allocation coefficient Fac_s to achieve the allocation of complex pollutants to air quality simulation components ( Figure 2 The industrial park emission allocation coefficient in the "increased emission impact analysis" section;

[0109] S23: Process the industrial park emission increase model to realize the conversion of industrial park annual emission data under specific emission intensity to hourly emission data with time variation, and combine the industrial park emission increase to the baseline emission list data of the air quality model (corresponding Figure 2 The unit area emission sequence of the industrial park in the "increased emission impact analysis" section; the pth industrial park has a unit area emission intensity EMIS pa The i-th month, j-th week, k-th hour, and l-th component emission data calculation method is as follows:

[0110]

[0111] S24: For different industrial parks, establish an emission sequence with different unit area emissions EMIS pa , use the industrial park emission increase model to operate the baseline list of the air quality model, add the hourly emission data of each pollutant component of the industrial park new emission to the corresponding pollutant component in the baseline emission list of the air quality model, and obtain the scenario emission list data (corresponding Figure 2 The sequence scenario list in the "increased emission impact analysis" section;

[0112] Call the air quality model to complete the simulation of the baseline emission list and different scenario emission list data (corresponding Figure 2 The CMAQ / CAMx air quality model in the "increased emission impact analysis" section), use the emission list of scenario c to simulate the concentration C pec , and the baseline scenario simulation concentration C peb , to calculate the pollutant response sequence concentration ΔC pea of the pth industrial park new emission source e in the pth industrial park (corresponding Figure 2 The park site simulation result in the "increased emission impact analysis" section ):

[0113]

[0114] For evaluation site E, extract the emission inventory concentration C corresponding to the simulated grid scenario for evaluation site E. Eec Basic scenario simulation concentration C Eeb This allows for the calculation of the corresponding pollutant response sequence concentration ΔC. Eea The method is as follows (corresponding) Figure 2 Simulation results of park sites in the "Emissions Increase Impact Analysis" section ):

[0115] .

[0116] More preferably, in an exemplary embodiment, in step S3, the incremental space of atmospheric pollutant concentrations at the industrial park site is determined, which serves as the basis for calculating the maximum permissible emissions. Corresponding to Figure 2 The section on "Verification and Determination of Maximum Allowable Emissions" in the document.

[0117] More specifically, determining the spatial increment of atmospheric pollutant concentrations at industrial park sites includes:

[0118] The pollutant concentration reduction obtained from the quantitative assessment of the emission reduction effectiveness of air pollution sources around the industrial park in step S1 Using the current concentration of C at site p in the industrial park peo0 and the target air pollution concentration value C for a specific year peoy Determine the limit for the increase in concentration caused by increased pollution emissions in the industrial park. As the basis for calculating the maximum allowable emissions (corresponding to Figure 2 The concentration increase limit for the park is specified in the "Verification and Determination of Maximum Allowable Emissions" section. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0119]

[0120] Among them, the current concentration of C at site p in the industrial park is... peo0 The concentration C at the industrial park environmental monitoring station in step S1 corresponds to... peo .

[0121] More preferably, in an exemplary embodiment, step S4, establishing a composite response relationship for industrial parks, is used to fit the simulation results of serialized grid emission inventories for different industrial parks, obtaining the response function relationship between emission increments and environmental concentrations for different environmental monitoring stations and each industrial park, and for different pollutants. Simultaneously, the response functions of different parks are integrated to obtain a composite response function of emissions from different industrial parks to pollutant concentrations at a specific environmental monitoring station. Corresponding to... Figure 5 The "Emissions Increase Impact Analysis" section.

[0122] More specifically, in step S4, establishing the composite response relationship of the industrial park includes:

[0123] S41: Combining different EMIS pa Simulation results of intensity and corresponding industrial park emissions' contribution concentration to monitoring stations in the park. Using cubic natural spline interpolation, the response function relationship C between emission increments and environmental concentrations for different environmental monitoring stations, industrial parks, and different pollutants was obtained. pe =f P (EMIS pa(x) ), function fitting as Figure 2 As shown, it specifically includes:

[0124] The relationship function f between new emissions from industrial parks and environmental concentration response at park sites p (EMIS pax The establishment of ) requires the interpolation process to be based on different emission intensities per unit area of ​​EMIS. pa The concentration ΔC corresponding to the air quality simulation results of the corresponding response sequence of the park stations pea Divide the simulation results into segments and calculate the interpolation point spacing for the nth segment in sequence. For example, the first segment may require the use of 0 and EMIS. pa(1) ΔC pea(1) Establish a piecewise fitting function:

[0125]

[0126] The key to establishing the response function lies in solving for the coefficients of each segment a, b, c, and d; since the fitting function is continuous, its solution results at each segment point and at the breakpoints... Given equal values, establish 2n equations, where EMIS pa(n) All are known, that is:

[0127]

[0128]

[0129]

[0130] …

[0131]

[0132] Since the fitted function is continuous and differentiable, and its first derivative is equal at each segment point, the following n-1 equations are established:

[0133]

[0134]

[0135] …

[0136]

[0137] At the same time, the second derivatives of each piecewise point function are equal, and the following n-1 equations are established:

[0138]

[0139]

[0140] …

[0141]

[0142] Finally, the second derivatives of the first point and the last point are 0, as boundary conditions, that is:

[0143]

[0144]

[0145] It is considered that 、 Since EMIS pa(1) and ΔC pea(1) in the above equations are the unit area park emission intensity input by the model and the corresponding park site concentration increment calculated by the model, respectively, both are known quantities, therefore, after the above equations are combined into an equation set, the linear equation set can be solved to obtain the a, b, c, d coefficients corresponding to different segments, and f p (EMIS pa(x) ) is obtained (corresponding to the park site response function f p (EMIS pa(x) ) in the “increased emission impact analysis” part of Figure 2 , and for the function relationship between the industrial park emission and the evaluation site, only replace in the formula with , and the corresponding function relationship f E (EMIS pa(x) ) is obtained (corresponding to the evaluation site response function f E (EMIS pa(x) ) in the “increased emission impact analysis” part of Figure 2 ;

[0146] S42: integrate the response functions of different parks to obtain the composite response function of the pollutant concentration of a specific environmental monitoring site to the emission of different industrial parks; the contribution concentration C e of P different parks to the pollutant e of a monitoring site in an industrial park is calculated according to the following formula, and different park unit area emissions EMISpa(x) The concentration increment C of the corresponding station can be solved e :

[0147] .

[0148] More preferably, in an exemplary embodiment, the solving of the maximum allowable emission of the industrial park station under the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration increment constraint in step S5 is based on the function relationship established in step S4, which can be brought into different park emission intensity data EMIS pa(x) Solve, since it involves the adjustment of the pollution emission intensity of multiple parks, the same pollutant concentration increment C e Often corresponds to multiple park emission combinations, in order to cover the emission increment space of different parks, this exemplary embodiment uses the exhaustive method of maximum and minimum constraints to solve. Corresponding to Figure 2 The "maximum allowable emission solving" part in

[0149] More specifically, solving the maximum allowable emission of the industrial park station under the atmospheric pollutant environmental concentration increment constraint includes:

[0150] Based on the function relationship established in step S4, different industrial park emission intensity data EMIS pa(x) Solve, since it involves the adjustment of the pollution emission intensity of multiple industrial parks, the same pollutant concentration increment C e Often corresponds to multiple park emission combinations, in order to cover the emission increment space of different parks, use the exhaustive method of maximum and minimum constraints to solve;

[0151] Using the response function establishment method of step S4, exchange the dependent variable and the independent variable to obtain the function relationship between the emission intensity change and the concentration increment, that is , using the function and the corresponding concentration rise limit value in step S3 paxm That is, calculate the maximum emission EMIS Figure 2 of the park in the "maximum allowable emission solving" part in paxm ), as the upper limit of the park emission increment, then set the response equation solving times S (determine the response equation solving times S in the "maximum allowable emission solving" part in Figure 2 ) according to the following formula to calculate the increment step size:

[0152]

[0153] To 0 to EMIS paxm According to the step size Establish an emission increment sequence, orthogonalize according to the industrial park, form an input data set, and bring it into the function relationship established in step S4 for solving calculationFigure 2 The response equation in the "Maximum Allowable Emissions Solution" section is solved using vectorization. The number of calculations required depends on the number of solutions S and the number of industrial parks p, i.e. If there are 3 industrial parks, and each park performs 500 calculations, then 125 million calculations are required. This invention improves efficiency by using vectorized computation. Finally, the maximum allowable emissions (EMIS) for each industrial park are calculated. pa(x) ( Figure 2 The EMIS results for the maximum allowable emissions of the industrial park in the "Solution of Maximum Allowable Emissions" section. pa(x) ).

[0154] More preferably, in an exemplary embodiment, for the impact verification of the evaluation site in step S6, a composite response function is used, and the maximum allowable emission data of different parks obtained from the solution are substituted to solve for the pollutant concentration changes of the evaluation environmental assessment site, and to verify whether it meets the pre-set concentration limits of the evaluation environmental assessment site. Corresponding to Figure 2 The "Solution of Maximum Allowable Emissions" section.

[0155] More specifically, the evaluation site impact calculation ( Figure 2 The "Verification and Determination of Maximum Allowable Emissions" section includes the verification of evaluation sites, which includes:

[0156] The solution results obtained in step S5 are analyzed and filtered. The result is used as the solution that satisfies the conditions. Combined with the actual development plan of the park and the value trend of different parks, the final emission increment per unit area of ​​different parks is selected. The functional relationship between emissions from the park and the evaluation sites is established using the method described in step S4. E (EMIS pa(x) ), combined with the current concentration C at the evaluation site Eeo0 Target concentration C Eeoy Emission reduction and concentration reduction Perform a concentration impact calculation at the evaluation site. If the increased emissions from the industrial park do not cause a deterioration in air quality at the evaluation sites, then the emissions from the industrial park will be reduced to ensure a continued contribution to the overall concentration at the evaluation sites. Below 0 ( ​ The results of the maximum allowable emission calculation for the park are shown in the "Solution of Maximum Allowable Emissions" section.

[0157] .

[0158] Obviously, the above embodiments are merely example for clearly illustrating but not limitation to the embodiments, and on the basis of the above description, other different forms of changes or variations can be made by those skilled in the art. Here, all the embodiments need not and can not be enumerated. The obvious changes or variations derived therefrom are still within the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the maximum allowable emissions of an industrial park based on the balance of emissions increase and decrease, characterized in that: Comprising the following steps: S1: Quantify the environmental concentration changes caused by the reduction of atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park, including: setting up a mask area to establish the buffer zone range of the industrial park in the simulation grid; adjusting the emission inventory coefficient in the mask area corresponding to the reduction coefficient of different pollution sources; using the air quality model to simulate the atmospheric pollution source emission inventory before and after the reduction, and calculating the environmental concentration reduction caused by the reduction of atmospheric pollution sources at different monitoring stations; S2: Simulate the environmental concentration changes caused by the response sequence of the newly added emission sources in the industrial park, including: taking the industrial park as the unit, according to the type of the planned land in the industrial park, the newly added emission of the industrial park is gridded, and a sequenced grid emission inventory applicable to the simulation of the air quality model is established; for the sequenced grid emission inventory with different unit area emission intensity, on the basis of the urban atmospheric pollution source emission inventory, the sequenced grid emission inventory is used as the emission increment, and the air quality model is used to complete the simulation of the corresponding sequenced grid emission inventory, respectively, to calculate the difference between the simulation results of each different emission amount of the sequenced grid emission inventory and the simulation results of the urban atmospheric pollution source emission inventory, to obtain the corresponding environmental concentration changes under all industrial park emission inventory increments; S3: Determine the environmental concentration increment space of the atmospheric pollutants at the industrial park station, including: combining the environmental concentration reduction calculated in step S1, the current situation of the industrial park monitoring station, and the target atmospheric pollution concentration value of a specific year, to determine the upper limit of the concentration increase caused by the increase of pollution emission in the industrial park, as the basis for calculating the maximum allowable emission; in step S3, the determination of the environmental concentration increment space of the atmospheric pollutants at the industrial park station includes: S4: Establish the composite response relationship of the industrial park, including: combining the environmental concentration changes corresponding to different unit area emission intensity and the corresponding industrial park emission inventory increment in step S2, to calculate the response function relationship of each monitoring station, each industrial park, and different pollutant emission increments and environmental concentration; at the same time, the response functions of different industrial parks are integrated to obtain the composite response function of different industrial park emissions to the pollutant concentration of a specific monitoring station; The pollutant concentration reduction obtained by combining the quantitative assessment of the emission reduction effect of the atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park in step S1 , the park p-site current concentration C peo0 , and the target atmospheric pollution concentration value C peoy of a specific year to determine the park concentration limit value caused by the increase of park pollution emissions , which is the basis for calculating the maximum allowable emissions, and the formula is as follows: ； Wherein, the industrial park p site present situation concentration C peo0 Corresponding to the industrial park environment monitoring station concentration C in step S1 peo ; S5: Solve the maximum allowable emission under the constraint of the environmental concentration increment of the atmospheric pollutants at the industrial park station, including: using the integrated composite response function in step S4, under the condition of the concentration increase upper limit value caused by the increase of pollution emission in the industrial park in step S3, the emission amount of different pollutants in different industrial parks is brought in to solve the concentration contribution of different industrial parks to the specific environmental monitoring point; in step S5, solving the maximum allowable emission under the constraint of the environmental concentration increment of the atmospheric pollutants at the industrial park station includes: S6: Evaluation site influence verification, including: using the composite response function, bringing in the maximum allowable emission data of different parks solved, to solve the pollutant concentration changes of the evaluation environmental evaluation station, and to verify whether it meets the pre-set concentration limit value of the evaluation environmental evaluation station in step S3. Based on the function relationship established in step S4, the emission intensity data EMIS of different industrial parks is brought in pa(x) Solving, since it involves the adjustment of pollution emission intensity of multiple industrial parks, the same pollutant concentration increment C e Often corresponds to multiple park emission combinations, in order to cover the emission increment space of different parks, the exhaustive method with maximum and minimum constraints is used to solve; Using the response function establishment method of step S4, the dependent variable and the independent variable are exchanged to obtain the function relationship between the emission intensity change and the concentration increment, i.e. , using the function and the corresponding concentration increase limit value in step S3 , i.e. calculating the maximum emission amount EMIS of only the park emission paxm , as the upper limit of the park emission increment, and then setting the number of response equation solving times S, the increment step is calculated according to the following formula: ； from 0 to EMIS paxm in steps The discharge increment sequence is established, orthogonalized according to the industrial parks, an input data set is formed, and is brought into the function relationship established in step S4 for solving and calculating. The required calculation times and solving times S and the number of parks p are related, that is, times; ​ 2. The emission balancing based industrial park maximum permissible emission calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S1, the environmental concentration changes caused by the reduction of atmospheric pollution sources around the industrial park include: S11: Using geographic information system (GIS) software, an industrial park buffer zone is established for the industrial park boundary, and the required buffer zone radius is set according to the local emission reduction potential and concentration reduction demand; S12: According to the relationship between the center longitude and latitude of the air quality simulation grid and the industrial park buffer zone, the simulation grid within the buffer zone is screened, and the industrial park buffer zone emission reduction mask file is established in units of industrial parks; S13: According to the emission reduction proportion of different industrial parks, an emission inventory adjustment file is prepared, and the emission inventory data of the air quality model is adjusted using an emission model combined with the emission inventory reduction proportion; the emission reduction coefficients of different pollution sources are used to adjust the emission inventory coefficients in the mask area; S14: air quality simulation is carried out by using the emission inventory before and after the emission reduction respectively, to obtain the concentration C pe0 of the pth industrial park before the emission reduction of the e pollutant pe1 ; the concentration C peo of the industrial park environment monitoring site is combined, the pollutant concentration simulation result is revised, the relative concentration change is taken, and the pollutant concentration reduction ΔC caused by the emission reduction is calculated according to the following formula pe : ； For the evaluation site E of the industrial park, the abatement reduction concentration is calculated using the abatement pre-concentration C Ee0 and the abatement post-concentration C Ee1 , the evaluation site monitoring concentration C Eeo , and the correction calculation: 。 3. The method for calculating the maximum allowable emission of an industrial park based on the emission increase-decrease balance according to claim 2, characterized in that: In step S2, the environmental concentration changes caused by the response sequence of the newly added emission sources in the industrial park include: S21: Taking the industrial park as the boundary, the emission inventory data is established in combination with the land use type structure in the industrial park; S22: Based on historical data, an industrial source emission time allocation sequence is established, covering the month allocation coefficient Fac_m, the week allocation coefficient Fac_w, and the hour allocation coefficient Fac_h; the species allocation coefficient Fac_s is established to realize the allocation of complex pollutants to air quality simulation components; S23: A model for processing the industrial park emission increment, for realizing the conversion of the annual emission data of the industrial park under the specific emission intensity to the hourly emission data with time variation, and merging the emission increment of the industrial park into the basic emission inventory data of the air quality model; the pth industrial park has the emission intensity EMIS pa The component l emission data is calculated according to the following formula: ； S24: For different industrial parks, different unit area emission EMIS pa Establish an emission sequence, operate the basic inventory of the air quality model using the industrial park emission increase model, add the hourly emission data of each pollutant component of the newly added emissions of the industrial park to the corresponding pollutant component in the basic emission inventory of the air quality model to obtain the scenario emission inventory data. The air quality model is called to complete the simulation of the base emission inventory and the different scenario emission inventory data, to simulate the concentration C using the emission inventory of scenario c according to the following formula pec The concentration C simulated by the base scenario is peb The concentration AC of the pollutant response sequence of the new emission source e in the industrial park p in the industrial park p is calculated pea : ； For the evaluation site E, the concentration C of the evaluation site E corresponding to the simulated grid scenario emission inventory is extracted Eec , the base scenario simulated concentration C Eeb , the corresponding pollutant response sequence concentration ΔC Eea can be calculated, as follows: 。 4. The method for calculating the maximum allowable emission of an industrial park based on the emission increase-decrease balance according to claim 3, characterized in that: In step S21, in the absence of detailed planning, considering the average distribution within the industrial land range, the emission intensity of 1 t / km 2 • a unit emission intensity emission inventory data of a, forming a baseline emission inventory.

5. The emission balancing-based industrial park maximum permissible emission calculation method according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step S4, the establishment of the industrial park complex response relationship includes: S41: Combine different EMIS pa Intensity and corresponding industrial park emissions to park monitoring site contribution concentration simulation results , using cubic natural spline interpolation, get different environmental monitoring sites and each industrial park, different pollutants corresponding emission increment and environmental concentration response function C pe =f P (EMIS pa(x) ), specifically includes: The relationship function f between new emissions from industrial parks and environmental concentration response at park sites p (EMIS pax The establishment of ) requires the interpolation process to be based on different emission intensities per unit area of ​​EMIS. pa The concentration ΔC corresponding to the air quality simulation results of the corresponding response sequence of the park stations pea Divide the simulation results into segments and calculate the interpolation point spacing for the nth segment in sequence. For example, the first segment may require the use of 0 and EMIS. pa(1) ΔC pea(1) Establish a piecewise fitting function: ； The key of response function establishment is to solve the coefficients of each segment a, b, c, d; since the fitting function is continuous, the solving result is equal to the value at the breakpoint of each segment point , and 2n equations are established, wherein EMIS pa(n) are all known, that is: ； ； ； … ； Since the fitting function is continuous and derivable, the first-order derivatives at each segment point are equal, and the following n-1 equations are established: ； ； … ； At the same time, the second-order derivatives of the functions at each segment point are equal, and the following n-1 equations are established: ； ； … ； Finally, the second-order derivative of the first point and the last point is 0, as a boundary condition, that is: ； ； Since EMIS pa(1) and ΔC pea(1) are known quantities, which are the unit area park emission intensity and the corresponding park site concentration increment calculated by the model, respectively, the above equations can be solved by setting up a system of equations to obtain the a, b, c, d coefficients corresponding to different segments, and obtain f p (EMIS pa(x) ). For the function relationship between the industrial park emission and the evaluation site, only replace EMIS in the equation with EMIS , and the corresponding function relationship f E (EMIS pa(x) ) is obtained. S42: integrate the response functions of different parks to obtain the composite response function of the emissions of different industrial parks on the pollutant concentration of a specific environmental monitoring site; the contribution concentration C of P different parks to the pollutant e of a certain industrial park monitoring site e The following formula is used to calculate the contribution concentration C of P different parks to the pollutant e of a certain industrial park monitoring site pa(x) That is, the concentration increment C of the corresponding site can be solved e : 。 6. The emission balancing-based industrial park maximum allowable emission amount balancing method according to claim 5, characterized in that: In step S6, the evaluation station influence verification includes: The solution results obtained in step S5 are analyzed and filtered. The result is used as the solution that satisfies the conditions. Combined with the actual development plan of the park and the value trend of different parks, the final emission increment per unit area of ​​different parks is selected. The functional relationship between emissions from the park and the evaluation sites is established using the method described in step S4. E (EMIS pax ), combined with the current concentration C at the evaluation site Eeo0 Target concentration C Eeoy Emission reduction and concentration reduction Perform a concentration impact calculation at the evaluation site. If the increased emissions from the industrial park do not cause a deterioration in air quality at the evaluation sites, then the emissions from the industrial park will be reduced to ensure a continued contribution to the overall concentration at the evaluation sites. Below 0: 。

Images