Enterprise supply chain risk identification method and device, storage medium and program product

Abstract

The invention discloses an enterprise supply chain risk identification method and device, a storage medium and a program product, and relates to the technical field of supply chain management, risk assessment is performed on supply chain data of an enterprise through a pre-formulated quantitative diagnosis standard, and whether the enterprise has a supply chain risk is determined, so that the enterprise supply chain risk can be identified. The enterprise can optimize the enterprise supply chain by adopting a corresponding risk avoidance means according to the identified current supply chain risk. Compared with the current mode that a single-dimension evaluation result of part of enterprise data is directly used as an enterprise supply chain risk evaluation result, different quantitative diagnosis standards and corresponding supply chain related data are comprehensively considered, and the supply chain risk of the enterprise is comprehensively and accurately evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of supply chain management, and in particular to an enterprise supply chain risk identification method, an enterprise supply chain risk identification device, a storage medium, and a computer program product. Background Art

[0002] The supply chain is a complex network of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers, wholesalers, and customers. The booming e-commerce landscape has transformed supply chain management. Over the years, the focus has shifted from a traditional retail-centric model to a direct-to-consumer model. This shift requires more complex and flexible supply chains to handle smaller, more frequent deliveries, often on a global scale.

[0003] Supply chain risk management (SCRM) identifies and addresses potential vulnerabilities in a company's supply chain. SCRM aims to minimize the impact of these risks on a company's operations, reputation, and financial performance.

[0004] However, the supply chain issues currently faced by enterprises are complex and involve a large amount of relevant data, which leads to the current practice of only conducting single-dimensional assessments of some of the data. For example, there is a current tendency to conduct risk assessments on the company's suppliers and directly use the supplier's risk as the overall assessment risk of the company's supply chain, while ignoring comprehensive considerations based on other data, resulting in the company's supply chain risk assessment being incomplete and inaccurate.

[0005] The above content is only used to assist in understanding the technical solution of this application and does not constitute an admission that the above content is prior art. Summary of the Invention

[0006] The main purpose of this application is to provide an enterprise supply chain risk identification method, enterprise supply chain risk identification equipment, storage medium and computer program product, aiming to solve the current technical problem that enterprise supply chain risk assessment is not comprehensive and accurate enough.

[0007] To achieve the above objectives, this application proposes a method for identifying enterprise supply chain risks, which includes:

[0008] Obtaining relevant data on the company's supply chain and quantitative diagnostic criteria for identifying supply chain risks, including criteria for determining the company's demand forecast inaccuracies, supplier reliability, uncontrolled supply chain logistics costs, customer experience deficiencies, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities;

[0009] According to the quantitative diagnostic standards, determine whether the enterprise has supply chain risks and the type of supply chain risks when the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain related data.

[0010] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining inaccurate demand forecasts, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes:

[0011] Obtain the predicted and actual sales volume of the company's products, and / or the time interval between the identification of market trends and the launch of new products;

[0012] Calculate the demand forecast accuracy based on the predicted sales and actual sales;

[0013] If the demand forecast accuracy for consecutive months is lower than the preset forecast accuracy threshold, and / or the time interval is greater than the preset new product launch response cycle, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of inaccurate demand forecasting.

[0014] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining supplier reliability, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes:

[0015] Obtaining the company's supplier data, including the supplier's on-time delivery rate, batch rejection rate, single-supplier procurement percentage, quick ratio, and carbon emissions data completeness;

[0016] If one or more of the supplier data does not meet the corresponding preset risk threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of supplier reliability.

[0017] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining whether supply chain logistics costs are out of control, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes:

[0018] Obtain transportation costs and terminal sales prices, the number of lost, damaged, and / or overdue orders and the total number of orders, and / or the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs;

[0019] Calculate the proportion of transportation costs based on transportation costs and terminal sales prices;

[0020] Calculate the final delivery abnormality rate based on the number of lost, damaged and / or overdue orders and the total order volume;

[0021] Calculate the inventory health based on the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs;

[0022] If the proportion of transportation costs is greater than the preset proportion threshold, the terminal delivery abnormality rate is greater than the preset abnormality rate threshold, and / or the inventory health is lower than the preset health threshold, it is determined that the company has a supply chain risk of out-of-control supply chain logistics costs.

[0023] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining whether a customer experience is defective, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes:

[0024] Obtain the return processing costs and sales revenue of the company's products, and / or the actual delivery time versus the promised time;

[0025] Calculate the reverse logistics cost ratio based on the return processing cost and sales revenue;

[0026] The delivery time decay degree is calculated based on the actual delivery time and the promised time;

[0027] If the reverse logistics cost ratio is greater than a preset cost ratio threshold, and / or the delivery time decay is greater than a preset tolerance threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of defective customer experience.

[0028] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining digital capabilities, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes:

[0029] Obtain the percentage of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time by the enterprise, and / or the deviation rate of digital twin simulation;

[0030] If the proportion of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time is less than the preset visual proportion threshold, and / or the digital twin simulation deviation rate is greater than the preset deviation rate threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low digital capabilities.

[0031] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining sustainability capabilities, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes:

[0032] Obtain traceable carbon emissions and total emissions of the company's products, and / or the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total amount of packaging;

[0033] The carbon footprint traceability rate is calculated based on the traceable carbon emissions and total emissions;

[0034] The packaging recyclability rate is calculated based on the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total packaging volume;

[0035] If the carbon footprint traceability rate is less than a preset traceability rate threshold, and / or the packaging recyclability rate is less than a preset recyclability rate threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low sustainability capabilities.

[0036] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also proposes an enterprise supply chain risk identification device, wherein the enterprise supply chain risk identification method device:

[0037] The acquisition module is used to obtain the company's supply chain data and quantitative diagnostic criteria for identifying supply chain risks;

[0038] The diagnosis module is used to determine whether the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain data in accordance with the quantitative diagnosis standards.

[0039] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also proposes an enterprise supply chain risk identification device, which includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program is configured to implement the steps of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method as described above.

[0040] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also proposes a storage medium, which is a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is stored on the storage medium. When the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method as described above are implemented.

[0041] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method as described above.

[0042] One or more technical solutions proposed in this application have at least the following technical effects:

[0043] In this application, a risk identification method for enterprise supply chain risk assessment is proposed. Through pre-established quantitative diagnostic standards, the enterprise's supply chain data is risk assessed to determine whether the enterprise has supply chain risks. In this way, the enterprise can adopt corresponding risk avoidance measures based on its identified current supply chain risks and optimize its supply chain. Compared with the current single-dimensional assessment results based on only part of the enterprise's data as the enterprise supply chain risk assessment results, in this application, different quantitative diagnostic standards and corresponding supply chain-related data are comprehensively considered to conduct a comprehensive and accurate assessment of the enterprise's supply chain risks. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0044] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present application and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the present application.

[0045] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, for ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without any creative work.

[0046] Figure 1 A flowchart of the first embodiment of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method provided in this application;

[0047] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the application of the supply chain risk identification method for this applicant enterprise;

[0048] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the module structure of the enterprise supply chain risk identification device according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0049] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the device structure of the hardware operating environment involved in the enterprise supply chain risk identification method in the embodiment of this application.

[0050] The purpose, features and advantages of this application will be further explained in conjunction with the embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0051] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely used to explain the technical solutions of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.

[0052] In order to better understand the technical solution of the present application, a detailed description will be given below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0053] It should be noted that the execution entity of this embodiment can be a computing service device with data processing, network communication, and program execution functions, such as a tablet computer, personal computer, mobile phone, etc., or an electronic device capable of performing the above functions, an enterprise supply chain risk identification device, etc. The following uses the enterprise supply chain risk identification device as an example to illustrate this embodiment and the following embodiments.

[0054] Based on this, the embodiment of the present application provides a method for identifying enterprise supply chain risks, referring to Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the first embodiment of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method of this application.

[0055] In this embodiment, the enterprise supply chain risk identification method includes steps S10 to S20:

[0056] Step S10: Obtaining the enterprise's supply chain-related data and quantitative diagnostic criteria for identifying supply chain risks, where the quantitative diagnostic criteria include criteria for determining the enterprise's demand forecast inaccuracy, supplier reliability, uncontrolled supply chain logistics costs, customer experience deficiencies, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities;

[0057] Step S20 , according to the quantitative diagnostic standards, determines whether the enterprise has supply chain risks and the types of supply chain risks if the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain related data.

[0058] Reference Figure 2 The supply chain-related data of an enterprise include relevant data on inaccurate demand forecasts when the enterprise conducts demand forecasts for its products, relevant data on supplier reliability when the enterprise conducts reliability assessments on suppliers, relevant data on out-of-control supply chain logistics costs when the enterprise conducts cost assessments on the logistics costs of its own supply chain, relevant data on defects in customer experience when the enterprise conducts user experience assessments on the final delivered products of the supply chain, relevant data on digital capabilities when the enterprise conducts digital capability assessments on its own supply chain, and relevant data on sustainability capabilities when the enterprise conducts sustainability assessments on its own supply chain.

[0059] It should be noted that an enterprise's supply chain-related data refers to data used to determine whether the enterprise has supply chain risks. It is understood that an enterprise's supply chain risks include not only the reliability of suppliers in the enterprise's supply chain, but also other risks in terms of meeting demand forecasts, achieving controllable logistics costs, ensuring user experience, possessing digital capabilities, and sustainability. In this embodiment, a comprehensive and holistic assessment of the supply chain is conducted, rather than relying solely on the risk assessment results of supplier nodes in the supply chain.

[0060] Before determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on quantitative diagnostic criteria and supply chain-related data, quantitative diagnostic criteria can be pre-designed and formulated. These criteria can be flexibly adjusted based on the enterprise's business, the number and complexity of supply chain-linked enterprise nodes, and the stringency of the enterprise's supply chain requirements. Furthermore, quantitative diagnostic criteria can be added or deleted. In one embodiment, the quantitative diagnostic criteria are determined based on expert experience and / or historical data.

[0061] After determining the presence of supply chain risks and the corresponding risk types based on quantitative diagnostic criteria and supply chain-related data, the enterprise can adopt corresponding risk mitigation measures and methods to reduce risks in one or more aspects and dimensions of its supply chain and strengthen the robustness of its supply chain. In this embodiment, the risk mitigation measures and methods adopted by the enterprise and their implementation are not limited.

[0062] The above comprehensively and accurately assesses the supply chain risks of enterprises by considering different quantitative diagnostic standards and corresponding supply chain-related data.

[0063] In a feasible implementation, when the quantitative diagnosis standard is a criterion for determining inaccurate demand forecasting, step S20 includes:

[0064] Obtain the predicted and actual sales volume of the company's products, and / or the time interval between the identification of market trends and the launch of new products;

[0065] Calculate the demand forecast accuracy based on the predicted sales and actual sales;

[0066] If the demand forecast accuracy for consecutive months is lower than the preset forecast accuracy threshold, and / or the time interval is greater than the preset new product launch response cycle, it is determined that the company has a supply chain risk of inaccurate demand forecasts.

[0067] When the quantitative diagnostic criteria are used to determine if demand forecasting is inaccurate, the demand forecast accuracy can be calculated based on the predicted and actual sales of the company's products. In one embodiment, the demand forecast accuracy is calculated using the following formula: Demand forecast accuracy = 1 - |actual sales - predicted sales| / actual sales. Furthermore, the time interval between the time the market trend is identified and the time the new product is launched can be calculated.

[0068] Among them, the predicted sales volume and market trends of enterprise products can be predicted through corresponding forecasting models, and the actual sales volume of enterprise products and the time when new products are launched can be obtained from the sales module and planning module of the enterprise system.

[0069] Companies with excessively large demand forecast errors, or inaccuracies, generally face the dual risks of overstocking or shortages. Therefore, when the demand forecast accuracy for consecutive months is lower than the preset forecast accuracy threshold, for example, the accuracy is lower than 80% for three consecutive months, and / or the time interval is greater than the preset new product launch response cycle. For example, this time interval for companies in the fast-moving consumer goods industry generally does not exceed 45 days, and the industry benchmark company ZARA has a time interval of 15 days, then the company is determined to have a supply chain risk of inaccurate demand forecasts.

[0070] In another feasible implementation, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining supplier reliability, step S20 includes:

[0071] Obtain the company's supplier data, including supplier on-time delivery rate, batch defect rate, single supplier procurement ratio, quick ratio, and carbon emissions data completeness;

[0072] If one or more supplier data do not meet their corresponding preset risk thresholds, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of supplier reliability.

[0073] When quantitative diagnostic criteria are used to determine supplier reliability, supplier reliability risk assessments are conducted based on aspects such as supplier delivery reliability, quality stability, supply concentration, financial health, and ESG compliance. ESG compliance refers to a company's compliance with relevant laws, regulations, regulatory requirements, and industry standards in environmental, social, and corporate governance areas.

[0074] In this embodiment, the supplier's on-time delivery rate is used to represent the supplier's delivery reliability, the supplier's batch failure rate is used to represent the supplier's quality stability, the enterprise's supply concentration is represented by the proportion of single-supplier procurement, the supplier's quick ratio is used to represent the supplier's financial health, and the supplier's carbon emission data integrity is used to represent the supplier's ESG compliance.

[0075] In this embodiment, specific indicators representing various supplier data are not limited. For example, the supplier's on-time delivery rate can be obtained from the enterprise's supplier management system, the supplier's batch failure rate can be obtained from the enterprise's supplier spot check report, the enterprise's single-supplier procurement ratio can be obtained from the enterprise's procurement data analysis platform, the supplier's quick ratio can be obtained from the supplier's corporate credit report, and the supplier's carbon emissions data completeness can be obtained from the CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project) database.

[0076] In one embodiment, when a supplier's on-time delivery rate is <95%, the batch rejection rate is >2%, the quick ratio is <1.0, the carbon emission data integrity is <70% field coverage, and / or the company's single-supplier procurement ratio is >60%, then it can be considered that the company has a supply chain risk of supplier reliability, that is, the company's supplier is unreliable, triggering a high-risk warning for supplier reliability.

[0077] In another feasible implementation, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining whether supply chain logistics costs are out of control, step S20 includes:

[0078] Obtain transportation costs and terminal sales prices, the number of lost, damaged, and / or overdue orders and the total number of orders, and / or the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs;

[0079] Calculate the proportion of transportation costs based on transportation costs and terminal sales prices;

[0080] Calculate the final delivery abnormality rate based on the number of lost, damaged and / or overdue orders and the total order volume;

[0081] Calculate the inventory health based on the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs;

[0082] If the proportion of transportation costs is greater than the preset proportion threshold, the terminal delivery abnormality rate is greater than the preset abnormality rate threshold, and / or the inventory health is lower than the preset health threshold, it is determined that the company has a supply chain risk of out-of-control supply chain logistics costs.

[0083] When the quantitative diagnostic standard is the criterion for determining whether the supply chain logistics costs are out of control, the proportion of transportation costs can be calculated based on the transportation costs and the terminal selling price. In one embodiment, the calculation formula for the proportion of transportation costs is as follows: Transportation cost proportion = Transportation costs / Terminal selling price, wherein the transportation costs of the fresh food industry generally exceed 18%; Based on the number of lost, damaged and / or overdue orders and the total order volume, the terminal delivery abnormality rate can be calculated. In one embodiment, the calculation formula for the terminal delivery abnormality rate is as follows: Terminal delivery abnormality rate = (lost + damaged + overdue) order volume / Total order volume, wherein the terminal delivery abnormality rate of the 3C industry generally exceeds 5%; Based on the number of unsaleable SKUs and the total number of SKUs, the inventory health can be calculated. In one embodiment, the calculation formula for inventory health is as follows: Inventory health, i.e., the proportion of unsaleable inventory = the number of unsaleable SKUs / Total number of SKUs, wherein the proportion of unsaleable inventory in the apparel industry is generally greater than 25%.

[0084] Currently, the D2C (direct-to-consumer) supplier model requires "small batch, high-frequency" deliveries, but low inventory turnover has become a common pain point. One apparel company, due to its failure to integrate online and offline inventory, experienced a peak season out-of-stock rate of up to 40%, with unsold items accounting for 25%. In the logistics chain, transportation costs can account for 15%-30% of the retail price, while "last mile" delivery issues (such as damaged goods and delivery delays) can lead to a 50% increase in customer complaints. Therefore, if the transportation cost ratio exceeds a preset threshold, the terminal delivery anomaly rate exceeds a preset anomaly rate threshold, and / or the inventory health falls below a preset health threshold, the company is determined to be at risk of uncontrolled supply chain logistics costs, prompting early mitigation measures to address this risk.

[0085] In another feasible implementation, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining whether customer experience is defective, step S20 includes:

[0086] Obtain the return processing costs and sales revenue of the company's products, and / or the actual delivery time versus the promised time;

[0087] Calculate the reverse logistics cost ratio based on the return processing cost and sales revenue;

[0088] The delivery time decay degree is calculated based on the actual delivery time and the promised time;

[0089] If the reverse logistics cost ratio is greater than the preset cost ratio threshold, and / or the delivery time decay is greater than the preset tolerance threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of defective customer experience.

[0090] When the quantitative diagnostic standard is used as the criterion for determining whether the customer experience is defective, the reverse logistics cost ratio can be calculated based on the return processing cost and sales revenue of the company's products. In one embodiment, the calculation formula of the reverse logistics cost ratio is as follows: Reverse logistics cost ratio = return processing cost / sales revenue, wherein the reverse logistics cost ratio of the e-commerce industry generally exceeds 8%; the delivery time decay degree can be calculated based on the actual delivery time and the promised time of the company's products. In one embodiment, the calculation formula of the delivery time decay degree is as follows: Delivery time decay degree = (actual delivery time - promised time) / promised time, wherein, when the delivery time decay degree of the fresh food industry is greater than 20%, the repurchase rate will drop by 35%.

[0091] Rising return rates are a hidden cost of the D2C model. Due to a complex return process, one e-commerce platform's reverse logistics costs soared from 5% to 12%, and the resale rate of returned merchandise is less than 40%. Furthermore, customer sensitivity to delivery timelines has increased: statistics show that over 70% of consumers will abandon a purchase if the product is delayed by more than 24 hours. Therefore, if the reverse logistics cost ratio exceeds a preset cost ratio threshold, and / or the delivery time degradation exceeds a preset tolerance threshold, the company is identified as experiencing supply chain risks associated with a flawed customer experience, allowing for early mitigation measures.

[0092] In another feasible embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining digital capability, step S20 includes:

[0093] Obtain the percentage of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time by the enterprise, and / or the deviation rate of digital twin simulation;

[0094] If the proportion of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time is less than the preset visual proportion threshold, and / or the digital twin simulation deviation rate is greater than the preset deviation rate threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low digital capabilities.

[0095] When quantitative diagnostic criteria are used as the criteria for determining digital capabilities, the company's supply chain digital capabilities are evaluated through the proportion of supply chain links that the company can monitor in real time and / or the digital twin simulation deviation rate.

[0096] Among them, the supply chain links that can be monitored in real time include 1. Supplier management in the procurement link: Through the supply chain control tower or ERP system, enterprises can monitor the supplier's delivery time, quality, cost and other information in real time to ensure that suppliers deliver on time, according to quality and quantity, and avoid supply chain interruptions; 2. Purchase order tracking in the procurement link: Enterprises can track the status of purchase orders in real time, including order placement, supplier confirmation, shipment, transportation, receipt, etc., to ensure a smooth procurement process; 3. Production progress monitoring in the production link: Enterprises can use MES system or other production management systems to monitor the equipment operation status, production progress, product quality and other information on the production line in real time, adjust production plans in time, and ensure that production tasks are completed on time; 4. Inventory management in the production link: Enterprises can use WMS system or other inventory management systems to monitor inventory levels, inventory turnover rate, inventory distribution and other information in real time to optimize inventory configuration, reduce inventory backlog and Out-of-stock risk; 5. Cargo transportation tracking in the logistics link: Enterprises can use logistics tracking software, GPS trackers, RFID technology and other means to monitor the location, transportation status, estimated arrival time and other information of the goods in real time, adjust the transportation plan in time, and ensure that the goods arrive at the destination on time; 6. Logistics cost control in the logistics link: Enterprises can use the logistics management system to monitor logistics costs, transportation efficiency, service quality and other information in real time, optimize logistics operations and reduce logistics costs; 7. Customer order processing in the sales link: Enterprises can use e-commerce platforms or other sales management systems to monitor the status of customer orders in real time, including order receipt, processing, shipment, distribution, etc., handle customer inquiries and complaints in a timely manner, and improve customer satisfaction; 8. Sales data analysis in the sales link: Enterprises can use data analysis tools to analyze sales data in real time, including sales revenue, sales volume, customer distribution, market trends, etc., to provide support for the company's sales decisions.

[0097] It should be noted that more supply chain links can be included, and more supply chain links that can be monitored in real time.

[0098] The digital twin simulation deviation rate refers to the degree of difference between the digital twin model and the actual supply chain system, typically expressed as a percentage. In one embodiment, the deviation rate is calculated as follows: Deviation rate = (simulated value - actual value) / actual value × 100%. For example, if the digital twin model predicts an inventory level of 120 for a certain link in the supply chain, while the actual inventory level is 100, the deviation rate is (120 - 100) / 100 × 100% = 20%. The causes of deviation are: 1. Model assumptions and simplifications: The digital twin model is an abstraction and simplification of the actual supply chain, which may ignore some complex real-world factors such as random interference, human factors, and nonlinear relationships in the supply chain, resulting in deviations between the simulation results and the actual situation. 2. Data quality issues: The accuracy of the digital twin model depends on the quality of the input data. If the data contains errors, is missing, or is outdated, the simulation results may deviate from the actual situation. 3. Inaccurate model parameters: The parameters in the model may not accurately reflect the characteristics of the actual supply chain, such as transportation time, production efficiency, and demand forecasts, which can also lead to simulation deviations. 4. Dynamic system changes: The supply chain system is a dynamic and complex system that is affected by many factors, such as fluctuations in market demand, supply disruptions, and policy changes. If the digital twin model cannot be updated and adapted to these changes in a timely manner, deviations will occur.

[0099] If the deviation rate is too high, decisions made based on the digital twin model may be erroneous, impacting the operational efficiency and effectiveness of the supply chain. The deviation rate can also affect the optimization of resource allocation, leading to waste or insufficient resources. Furthermore, the deviation rate can lead to inaccurate risk assessments and inability to provide timely warnings of potential risks in the supply chain. Therefore, if an enterprise's supply chain digital capabilities are determined to be low based on the percentage of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time and / or the discrepancy between the digital twin simulation deviation rate and actual operations, the enterprise can enhance its digital capabilities through digital transformation to increase the percentage of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time and / or reduce the digital twin simulation deviation rate.

[0100] In this embodiment, data quality can be improved by, for example, using data cleaning, data validation, and data fusion techniques to improve the quality of input data, reduce data errors and omissions, and optimize model assumptions and parameters. Alternatively, the digital twin model can be continuously improved and learned through actual operational results and deviation analysis to continuously enhance the model's accuracy and adaptability. This embodiment does not limit the digital transformation solutions for enterprises that enhance digital capabilities.

[0101] In another feasible implementation, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining sustainability, step S20 includes:

[0102] Obtain traceable carbon emissions and total emissions of the company's products, and / or the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total amount of packaging;

[0103] The carbon footprint traceability rate is calculated based on the traceable carbon emissions and total emissions;

[0104] The packaging recyclability rate is calculated based on the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total packaging volume;

[0105] If the carbon footprint traceability rate is less than the preset traceability rate threshold, and / or the packaging recyclability rate is less than the preset recyclability rate threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low sustainability capabilities.

[0106] When the quantitative diagnostic standard is the criterion for determining sustainability capabilities, the carbon footprint traceability rate can be calculated based on the traceable carbon emissions and the total emissions. In one embodiment, the carbon footprint traceability rate is calculated as follows: Carbon footprint traceability rate = traceable carbon emissions / total emissions. Relevant EU regulations require that the carbon footprint traceability rate must reach 90% by 2025. The packaging recyclability rate can be calculated based on the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total packaging volume. In one embodiment, the packaging recyclability rate is calculated as follows: Packaging recyclability rate = amount of environmentally friendly packaging used / total packaging volume. In the food industry, a packaging recyclability rate < 60% will result in 10% customer loss.

[0107] Currently, consumer attention to green supply chains is forcing companies to reform. A food company faced EU fines and a 20% market share loss for failing to implement packaging traceability. Over 60% of companies lack carbon emissions data, and extreme climate events (such as the 2024 floods) caused supply chain disruptions exceeding one month for 15% of global manufacturers. Therefore, if the carbon footprint traceability rate is less than a preset traceability threshold, and / or the packaging recyclability rate is less than a preset recyclability threshold, the company is identified as facing a supply chain risk of low sustainability capabilities and needs to further improve its sustainability capabilities.

[0108] In another feasible embodiment, the method further includes:

[0109] The company's supply chain risk level is comprehensively determined based on quantitative diagnostic criteria including inaccurate demand forecasts, supplier reliability, out-of-control supply chain logistics costs, defects in customer experience, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities.

[0110] In this embodiment, during the comprehensive judgment, historical data of each dimension of the judgment criteria (demand forecast inaccuracy, supplier reliability, supply chain logistics cost out-of-control, customer experience defects, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities) can be determined, and the risk impact weights of each dimension can be summarized from the historical data. For example, if the current enterprise is greatly affected by demand forecast inaccuracy and supplier reliability and the impact is increasing, the weights of demand forecast inaccuracy and supplier reliability will be increased; if the enterprise is less affected by supply chain logistics cost out-of-control, customer experience defects, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities and the impact is decreasing, the weights of demand forecast inaccuracy and supplier reliability will be decreased. Furthermore, when calculating the target data under each judgment criterion, such as the demand forecast accuracy under the judgment criterion of demand forecast inaccuracy, the transportation cost ratio under the judgment criterion of supply chain logistics cost out-of-control, the terminal delivery abnormality rate, and inventory health, the target data is assigned the risk impact weight of the corresponding judgment criterion. That is, the target data is used as the risk score of each dimension, and the risk score of each dimension is weighted to obtain the final risk score. When the final risk score is greater than the score threshold, a risk warning is issued.

[0111] Therefore, based on the quantification of each diagnostic standard, the final enterprise supply chain risk is further quantified. In other words, the final enterprise supply chain risk is digitally represented. When the final enterprise supply chain risk is identified, a final risk score is given under each quantitative diagnostic standard. This allows enterprises to simply and directly determine whether they currently have supply chain risks based on the final risk score before reviewing the actual risks corresponding to the specific diagnostic standards. In this way, when the final risk score determines that the enterprise currently has supply chain risks, the specific risks under each quantitative diagnostic standard can be further reviewed.

[0112] It should be noted that the above examples are only used to understand this application and do not constitute a limitation on the enterprise supply chain risk identification method of this application. More simple transformations based on this technical concept are all within the scope of protection of this application.

[0113] This application also provides an enterprise supply chain risk identification device, please refer to Figure 3 , the enterprise supply chain risk identification device includes:

[0114] Acquisition module 10 is used to obtain the company's supply chain-related data and quantitative diagnostic criteria for identifying supply chain risks, where the quantitative diagnostic criteria include the company's demand forecast inaccuracy, supplier reliability, uncontrolled supply chain logistics costs, customer experience defects, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities.

[0115] The diagnosis module 20 is used to determine whether the enterprise has supply chain risks and the types of supply chain risks when the enterprise has supply chain risks based on supply chain-related data in accordance with quantitative diagnosis standards.

[0116] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining inaccurate demand forecasting, the diagnostic module 20 is further configured to:

[0117] Obtain the predicted and actual sales volume of the company's products, and / or the time interval between the identification of market trends and the launch of new products;

[0118] Calculate the demand forecast accuracy based on the predicted sales and actual sales;

[0119] If the demand forecast accuracy for consecutive months is lower than the preset forecast accuracy threshold, and / or the time interval is greater than the preset new product launch response cycle, it is determined that the company has a supply chain risk of inaccurate demand forecasts.

[0120] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining supplier reliability, the diagnostic module 20 is further configured to:

[0121] Obtain the company's supplier data, including supplier on-time delivery rate, batch defect rate, single supplier procurement ratio, quick ratio, and carbon emissions data completeness;

[0122] If one or more supplier data do not meet their corresponding preset risk thresholds, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of supplier reliability.

[0123] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining whether supply chain logistics costs are out of control, the diagnostic module 20 is further configured to:

[0124] Obtain transportation costs and terminal sales prices, the number of lost, damaged, and / or overdue orders and the total number of orders, and / or the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs;

[0125] Calculate the proportion of transportation costs based on transportation costs and terminal sales prices;

[0126] Calculate the final delivery abnormality rate based on the number of lost, damaged and / or overdue orders and the total order volume;

[0127] Calculate the inventory health based on the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs;

[0128] If the proportion of transportation costs is greater than the preset proportion threshold, the terminal delivery abnormality rate is greater than the preset abnormality rate threshold, and / or the inventory health is lower than the preset health threshold, it is determined that the company has a supply chain risk of out-of-control supply chain logistics costs.

[0129] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining whether the customer experience is defective, the diagnostic module 20 is further configured to:

[0130] Obtain the return processing costs and sales revenue of the company's products, and / or the actual delivery time versus the promised time;

[0131] Calculate the reverse logistics cost ratio based on the return processing cost and sales revenue;

[0132] The delivery time decay degree is calculated based on the actual delivery time and the promised time;

[0133] If the reverse logistics cost ratio is greater than the preset cost ratio threshold, and / or the delivery time decay is greater than the preset tolerance threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of defective customer experience.

[0134] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining digital capability, the diagnostic module 20 is further configured to:

[0135] Obtain the percentage of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time by the enterprise, and / or the deviation rate of digital twin simulation;

[0136] If the proportion of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time is less than the preset visible proportion threshold, and / or the digital twin simulation deviation rate is greater than the actual operation difference, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low digital capabilities.

[0137] In one embodiment, when the quantitative diagnostic criterion is a criterion for determining sustainability, the diagnostic module 20 is further configured to:

[0138] Obtain traceable carbon emissions and total emissions of the company's products, and / or the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total amount of packaging;

[0139] The carbon footprint traceability rate is calculated based on the traceable carbon emissions and total emissions;

[0140] The packaging recyclability rate is calculated based on the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total packaging volume;

[0141] If the carbon footprint traceability rate is less than the preset traceability rate threshold, and / or the packaging recyclability rate is less than the preset recyclability rate threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low sustainability capabilities.

[0142] The enterprise supply chain risk identification device provided in this application, which employs the enterprise supply chain risk identification method described in the aforementioned embodiment, can address the current technical issue of insufficiently comprehensive and accurate enterprise supply chain risk assessments. Compared to the prior art, the beneficial effects of the enterprise supply chain risk identification device provided in this application are the same as those of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method described in the aforementioned embodiment. The other technical features of the enterprise supply chain risk identification device are the same as those disclosed in the aforementioned embodiment and are not further elaborated here.

[0143] The present application provides an enterprise supply chain risk identification device, which includes: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein the memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor so that the at least one processor can execute the enterprise supply chain risk identification method in the above-mentioned embodiment one.

[0144] Reference below Figure 4 , which shows a schematic diagram of the structure of an enterprise supply chain risk identification device suitable for implementing the embodiments of the present application. The enterprise supply chain risk identification device in the embodiments of the present application may include, but is not limited to, mobile terminals such as mobile phones, laptop computers, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants), PADs (Portable Application Descriptions), PMPs (Portable Media Players), and in-vehicle terminals (e.g., in-vehicle navigation terminals), as well as fixed terminals such as digital TVs and desktop computers. Figure 4 The enterprise supply chain risk identification device shown is merely an example and should not impose any limitations on the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present application.

[0145] like Figure 4 As shown, the enterprise supply chain risk identification device may include a processing device 1001 (e.g., a central processing unit, a graphics processing unit, etc.), which can perform various appropriate actions and processes based on programs stored in a read-only memory 1002 or programs loaded from a storage device 1003 into a random access memory 1004. The random access memory 1004 also stores various programs and data required for the operation of the enterprise supply chain risk identification device. The processing device 1001, the read-only memory 1002, and the random access memory 1004 are interconnected via a bus 1005. An input / output interface 1006 is also connected to the bus. Typically, the following systems may be connected to the input / output interface 1006: an input device 1007 including, for example, a touchscreen, touchpad, keyboard, mouse, image sensor, microphone, accelerometer, gyroscope, etc.; an output device 1008 including, for example, a liquid crystal display (LCD), speaker, vibrator, etc.; a storage device 1003 including, for example, a magnetic tape, hard disk, etc.; and a communication device 1009. Communication device 1009 can allow the enterprise supply chain risk identification device to communicate wirelessly or wired with other devices to exchange data. Although the figure shows an enterprise supply chain risk identification device with various systems, it should be understood that it is not required to implement or have all of the systems shown. More or fewer systems may be implemented or provided instead.

[0146] In particular, according to the embodiments disclosed in the present application, the processes described above with reference to the flowcharts can be implemented as computer software programs. For example, the embodiments disclosed in the present application include a computer program product comprising a computer program carried on a computer-readable medium, the computer program comprising program code for executing the method shown in the flowchart. In such an embodiment, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from a network via a communication device, or installed from a storage device 1003, or installed from a read-only memory 1002. When the computer program is executed by the processing device 1001, the above-mentioned functions defined in the method of the embodiment disclosed in the present application are performed.

[0147] The enterprise supply chain risk identification device provided in this application, which utilizes the enterprise supply chain risk identification method described in the aforementioned embodiment, can address the current technical issue of insufficiently comprehensive and accurate enterprise supply chain risk assessments. Compared to the prior art, the beneficial effects of the enterprise supply chain risk identification device provided in this application are the same as those of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method described in the aforementioned embodiment. The other technical features of this enterprise supply chain risk identification device are the same as those disclosed in the aforementioned embodiment and are not further elaborated upon here.

[0148] It should be understood that the various parts disclosed in this application can be implemented using hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the description of the above embodiments, specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics can be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0149] The above description is merely a specific embodiment of the present application, but the scope of protection of the present application is not limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by a person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in this application should be included in the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the scope of protection of this application should be based on the scope of protection of the claims.

[0150] The present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program instructions (ie, a computer program) stored thereon, and the computer-readable program instructions are used to execute the enterprise supply chain risk identification method in the above-mentioned embodiment.

[0151] The computer-readable storage medium provided in this application may be, for example, a USB flash drive, but is not limited to electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems or devices, or any combination thereof. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media may include, but are not limited to: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination thereof. In this embodiment, the computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that contains or stores a program that can be used by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system or device. The program code contained on the computer-readable storage medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to: wires, optical cables, RF (Radio Frequency), etc., or any suitable combination thereof.

[0152] The above-mentioned computer-readable storage medium may be included in the enterprise supply chain risk identification device; or it may exist independently without being assembled into the enterprise supply chain risk identification device.

[0153] The above-mentioned computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs. When the above-mentioned one or more programs are executed by the enterprise supply chain risk identification device, the enterprise supply chain risk identification device is enabled to: obtain the enterprise's supply chain-related data and quantitative diagnostic standards for identifying supply chain risks, wherein the quantitative diagnostic standards include the judgment criteria for the enterprise's inaccurate demand forecast, supplier reliability, out-of-control supply chain logistics costs, defects in customer experience, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities; in accordance with the quantitative diagnostic standards, determine whether the enterprise has supply chain risks and the types of supply chain risks when the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data.

[0154] Computer program code for performing the operations of the present application may be written in one or more programming languages, or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, Smalltalk, C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a stand-alone software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on the remote computer or server. In cases involving a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., through the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0155] The flow charts and block diagrams in the accompanying drawings illustrate the possible architecture, functions and operations of the systems, methods and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present application. In this regard, each box in the flow chart or block diagram can represent a module, program segment or a part of code, and the module, program segment or a part of code contains one or more executable instructions for realizing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions marked in the box can also occur in a different order than that marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two boxes represented in succession can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they can sometimes be executed in the opposite order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each box in the block diagram and / or flow chart, and the combination of the boxes in the block diagram and / or flow chart can be implemented by a dedicated hardware-based system that performs the specified function or operation, or can be implemented by a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0156] The modules described in the embodiments of the present application may be implemented in software or hardware, wherein the name of a module does not necessarily limit the unit itself.

[0157] The computer-readable storage medium provided in this application stores computer-readable program instructions (i.e., a computer program) for executing the aforementioned enterprise supply chain risk identification method. This computer-readable storage medium can address the current technical issue of insufficiently comprehensive and accurate enterprise supply chain risk assessments. Compared to the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer-readable storage medium provided in this application are similar to those of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method provided in the aforementioned embodiments and are not further elaborated here.

[0158] The present application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which implements the steps of the above-mentioned enterprise supply chain risk identification method when executed by a processor.

[0159] The computer program product provided in this application can address the current technical problem of insufficiently comprehensive and accurate enterprise supply chain risk assessments. Compared to the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer program product provided in this application are the same as those of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method provided in the aforementioned embodiment, and are not further elaborated here.

[0160] The above description is only part of the embodiments of the present application and does not limit the patent scope of the present application. All equivalent structural transformations made by using the contents of the present application specification and drawings under the technical concept of the present application, or direct / indirect application in other related technical fields are included in the patent protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for identifying enterprise supply chain risks, characterized by: The enterprise supply chain risk identification method includes: Obtaining relevant data on the company's supply chain and quantitative diagnostic criteria for identifying supply chain risks, including criteria for determining the company's demand forecast inaccuracies, supplier reliability, uncontrolled supply chain logistics costs, customer experience deficiencies, digital capabilities, and sustainability capabilities; According to the quantitative diagnostic standards, determine whether the enterprise has supply chain risks and the type of supply chain risks when the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain related data.

2. The enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining inaccurate demand forecasts, the step of determining whether the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes: Obtain the predicted and actual sales volume of the company's products, and / or the time interval between the identification of market trends and the launch of new products; Calculate the demand forecast accuracy based on the predicted sales and actual sales; If the demand forecast accuracy for consecutive months is lower than the preset forecast accuracy threshold, and / or the time interval is greater than the preset new product launch response cycle, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of inaccurate demand forecasting.

3. The enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the quantitative diagnostic standard is a standard for determining supplier reliability, the step of determining whether the enterprise has supply chain risks according to the quantitative diagnostic standard and the supply chain-related data includes: Obtaining the company's supplier data, including the supplier's on-time delivery rate, batch failure rate, single-supplier procurement percentage, quick ratio, and carbon emissions data completeness; If one or more of the supplier data does not meet the corresponding preset risk threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of supplier reliability.

4. The enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining whether supply chain logistics costs are out of control, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes: Obtain transportation costs and terminal sales prices, the number of lost, damaged, and / or overdue orders and the total number of orders, and / or the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs; Calculate the proportion of transportation costs based on transportation costs and terminal sales prices; Calculate the final delivery abnormality rate based on the number of lost, damaged and / or overdue orders and the total order volume; Calculate inventory health based on the number of slow-moving SKUs and the total number of SKUs; If the proportion of transportation costs is greater than the preset proportion threshold, the terminal delivery abnormality rate is greater than the preset abnormality rate threshold, and / or the inventory health is lower than the preset health threshold, it is determined that the company has a supply chain risk of out-of-control supply chain logistics costs.

5. The enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining whether a customer experience is defective, the step of determining whether an enterprise has supply chain risks according to the quantitative diagnostic standard and the supply chain-related data includes: Obtain the return processing costs and sales revenue of the company's products, and / or the actual delivery time versus the promised time; Calculate the reverse logistics cost ratio based on the return processing cost and sales revenue; The delivery time decay degree is calculated based on the actual delivery time and the promised time; If the reverse logistics cost ratio is greater than a preset cost ratio threshold, and / or the delivery time decay is greater than a preset tolerance threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of defective customer experience.

6. The enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining digital capabilities, the step of determining whether the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes: Obtain the percentage of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time by the enterprise, and / or the deviation rate of digital twin simulation; If the proportion of supply chain links that can be monitored in real time is less than the preset visual proportion threshold, and / or the digital twin simulation deviation rate is greater than the preset deviation rate threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low digital capabilities.

7. The enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the quantitative diagnostic standard is a criterion for determining sustainability capabilities, the step of determining whether the enterprise has supply chain risks based on the supply chain-related data according to the quantitative diagnostic standard includes: Obtain traceable carbon emissions and total emissions of the company's products, and / or the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total amount of packaging; The carbon footprint traceability rate is calculated based on the traceable carbon emissions and total emissions; The packaging recyclability rate is calculated based on the amount of environmentally friendly packaging used and the total packaging volume; If the carbon footprint traceability rate is less than a preset traceability rate threshold, and / or the packaging recyclability rate is less than a preset recyclability rate threshold, it is determined that the enterprise has a supply chain risk of low sustainability capabilities.

8. An enterprise supply chain risk identification device, characterized in that: The device includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program is configured to implement the steps of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is stored on the storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that The computer program product includes a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the enterprise supply chain risk identification method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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