Reservoir landslide surge disaster influence assessment method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir area landslide surge disaster influence assessment method and system, and relates to the technical field of landslide surge disaster assessment. The method comprises the following steps: carrying out direct loss assessment, and quantifying the damage condition of a disaster to tangible assets and economic operation loss; indirect economic loss assessment is carried out, and the overall influence of disasters on the society and economy is summarized, including the influence of reservoir area economic growth and external economic and financial balance; carrying out post-disaster reconstruction cost evaluation, and estimating intervention measures required for starting recovery work in a short period and capital demands for realizing comprehensive post-disaster recovery and reconstruction; macroeconomic influence analysis is carried out, and the influence of surge disasters on long-term economic development of the reservoir area is evaluated; personal and family influence evaluation is carried out, and the influence of disasters on personal and family income and living standard is analyzed. According to the method, a comprehensive methodological guidance is provided for economic evaluation of the reservoir area, and effective landslide surge disaster coping strategies and recovery plans can be formulated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of landslide surge disaster assessment, and in particular to a reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method and system. Background Art

[0002] Existing landslide and surge hazard assessment methods often limit the evaluation of the economic impact of landslide and surge disasters to the calculation of direct losses, such as the direct costs of damage to hydraulic structures and infrastructure. However, these methods fail to fully consider the indirect impacts of disasters on the reservoir region's economy, including damage to reservoir infrastructure, reduced production capacity, lost employment opportunities, and long-term macroeconomic impacts. Traditional disaster assessment methods often lack a systematic assessment of post-disaster reconstruction costs and an in-depth analysis of impacts at the macroeconomic, individual, and household levels. For example, some methods may focus solely on short-term economic losses, ignoring the impact of the disaster on the reservoir region's economic structure and long-term development potential. Furthermore, as fundamental socioeconomic units, the degree of disaster impact and resilience of individuals and households are also crucial factors in the assessment. Consequently, existing assessment methods are limited in comprehensiveness and accuracy, failing to fully support disaster management decision-making. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new method that can comprehensively assess the impact of landslide and surge disasters on the reservoir region's economy, including direct and indirect economic losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and impacts on individuals and households, to improve the accuracy and practicality of disaster assessments.

[0003] Prior art one, Chinese patent application number 202311567953.1, discloses a dynamic analysis method and system for landslide surges in reservoir areas. This relates to the field of water conservancy engineering technology and addresses the problem that existing surge analysis methods are unable to accurately and quantitatively analyze the surge impacts that may be caused by the instability of unfavorable geological bodies. The method includes: determining the water level elevation gradient and gradually raising the reservoir water level according to the water level elevation gradient; calculating the instability variables of the geological body to be measured at each reservoir water level; and performing surge analysis on each instability variable of the geological body to be measured to obtain the surge height corresponding to each instability variable. This method is used for landslide surge analysis in reservoir areas; however, it fails to fully consider the indirect impact of the disaster on the reservoir area economy.

[0004] The second prior art, Chinese patent, application number 202311662592.9 discloses a method for preventing and controlling landslide surge disasters in a reservoir area, which relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering technology, and includes the following steps: obtaining a longitudinal geological profile of a potential landslide body, and calculating the horizontal movement speed of the potential landslide body according to the vertical strip method; calculating the initial wave height of the landslide surge; calculating the wave height and the surge climbing height of the propagating wave moving toward the protected object, and drawing a curve of the surge height change along the process; arranging a wave-breaking structure along the propagating wave front direction near the boundary of the protected object, and the maximum height of the wave-breaking structure is higher than the wave height of the propagating wave at the arrangement position; although, taking into full consideration the propagation and attenuation characteristics of the landslide surge in the reservoir area, the wave-breaking structure is arranged in a targeted manner to minimize the impact energy of the climbing wave, improve the wave-breaking effect, avoid large-scale slope cutting and load reduction construction on the landslide body, reduce the construction safety risk and the investment in slope cutting and load reduction projects; however, there is a lack of in-depth analysis of the impact at the macroeconomic and individual and family levels.

[0005] Prior art three, Chinese patent application number 202311133111.5, provides a method for predicting the probability of exceeding the maximum height of a landslide-surge wave, including: constructing candidate models in dimensionless form, collecting experimental data from the models of each experimental design, establishing various experimental databases, performing Bayesian processing on the candidate models based on the various experimental databases, generating Bayesian factors for each candidate model, determining the candidate model with the largest Bayesian factor as the maximum height prediction model, updating the maximum height prediction model through Bayesian, determining the parameter probability distribution, and predicting the probability of exceeding the maximum height of the landslide-surge wave in the target reservoir area based on the parameter probability distribution. Although the Bayesian processing of the candidate models determines the maximum height prediction model, determines the parameter probability distribution, quantifies the uncertainty of the experimental design, and thus predicts the probability of exceeding the maximum height of the landslide-surge wave in the target reservoir area, it lacks a systematic assessment of the post-disaster reconstruction costs.

[0006] Currently, existing technologies 1, 2, and 3 fail to fully consider the indirect impact of disasters on the reservoir area economy, lack a systematic assessment of post-disaster reconstruction costs, and lack in-depth analysis of the impacts on the macroeconomy and at the individual and household levels. To address these issues, the present invention provides a method for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in reservoir areas. Summary of the Invention

[0007] The main purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in reservoir areas, so as to solve the problems in the existing technology that the indirect impact of disasters on the reservoir area economy is not fully considered, there is a lack of systematic evaluation of post-disaster reconstruction costs, and in-depth analysis of the impact on the macro-economy and individual and family levels.

[0008] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: A method for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in a reservoir area comprises the following steps: Obtain data on the damage to tangible assets and economic losses caused by the disaster, quantify them, and arrive at a direct loss assessment result; based on the direct loss assessment result, summarize the social and economic impact of the disaster to arrive at an indirect loss assessment result; and assess the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area; Draw up macroeconomic impact analysis based on direct and indirect loss assessments; assess the impact of the disaster on individual and family living standards; The direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and family impact assessment results are integrated to obtain the overall regional economic assessment results.

[0009] As a further improvement of the present invention, the process of obtaining the indirect loss assessment result specifically includes the following steps: Physical damage to assets caused by landslide surges; the value of the damage will be assessed based on the replacement cost of the assets before the disaster; a detailed investigation and assessment of the damaged assets will be conducted to determine the economic value and repair costs; and an assessment of the direct losses will be obtained; An assessment of indirect losses is conducted by analyzing industry production losses and service industry revenue; an assessment of business activities, employment rates, and supply chain disruptions in the affected reservoir area is conducted; and a summary of the overall social and economic impacts of the disaster, including supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity, and job losses. Conduct post-disaster reconstruction cost assessments: Post-disaster reconstruction costs include the funds needed to repair or rebuild damaged assets; assess reconstruction needs, including material, labor, and time requirements, as well as the associated economic costs; and conduct budget planning and cost-benefit analysis for reconstruction projects.

[0010] As a further improvement of the present invention, the post-disaster reconstruction cost includes the funds required to repair or rebuild damaged assets, which specifically includes the following steps: This is achieved by quantifying the damage to physical assets and economic losses caused by disasters, including the direct costs of damaged buildings and infrastructure; Summarize the overall social and economic impact of the disaster, including supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity, and job losses; indirect losses involve losses caused by the interruption or reduction of economic activities; Estimate the government intervention measures needed to initiate recovery work in the short term and the financial needs for comprehensive post-disaster recovery and reconstruction; post-disaster reconstruction costs include the funds needed to repair or rebuild damaged assets.

[0011] As a further improvement of the present invention, the process of assessing the impact of a disaster on the living standards of individuals and families specifically includes the following steps: Analyze the impact of landslide surges on macroeconomic variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP), balance of payments, and fiscal budget; assess the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area, including its impact on national economic growth, foreign trade, and fiscal balance; Assess the impact of disasters on individual and household living standards, including employment and income declines, and higher-than-normal household or individual expenditures; analyze the impact of disasters on individual and household income and living standards, and consider the long-term impact of disasters on household economic structures and resilience; Impacts on individuals and families, including decreased employment and income, and higher than normal household or personal spending.

[0012] As a further improvement of the present invention, the process of obtaining the overall regional economic evaluation result specifically includes the following steps: Comprehensively analyze the relevance of direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and household impact assessment results; Mapping each assessment result to macroeconomic indicators, analyzing the impact of the disaster on the regional economy, and predicting the economic recovery path in combination with long-term development indicators; integrating each assessment result; Construct an overall regional economic assessment program, input the integrated assessment results into the overall regional economic assessment program, review each assessment result, and adjust each assessment result based on actual data; form the adjusted assessment results into a comprehensive assessment report and output it visually.

[0013] As a further improvement of the present invention, the process of comprehensively analyzing the correlation of the evaluation results specifically includes the following steps: Summarize the assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and individual household impacts, unifying the data format and statistical caliber; construct cross-sectoral and multi-level correlation indicators based on the transmission paths of disaster impacts; Verify the causal relationship between assessment results; analyze the elasticity between direct losses and macroeconomic indicators; and predict the impact of post-disaster reconstruction investment on long-term indicators such as employment and tax revenue. Combined with vulnerability assessments, identify the pressure transmitted by household losses on public service demand. If there are contradictions between different assessment results, the data source will be traced back and the weights will be checked and adjusted; the correlation strength and direction of each assessment result will be output through visualization software, and the key transmission nodes will be marked, and the data limitations and assumptions will be explained in the report.

[0014] As a further improvement of the present invention, the process of verifying the causal relationship between the evaluation results specifically includes the following steps: By controlling for confounding variables, we analyze the correlation between direct economic indicators and macroeconomic indicators to resolve the endogeneity problem. We also simulate the sudden changes in economic indicators before and after the disaster using the threshold of the disaster to verify the causal relationship. Use time series to test whether one variable is predictive of another and determine the direction of causality; analyze the causal relationship between losses in different industries and the overall economic recession; obtain data on the duration of labor shutdowns and sector distribution, compare recovery paths, and verify the rationality of the causal chain; Using post-disaster policy interventions as exogenous shocks, we analyze the pulling effects on employment and tax revenue; compare the differences in policy implementation strength in different regions to identify causal effects; and construct a multi-level indicator kingdom to quantify the strength of transmission nodes through path analysis.

[0015] As a further improvement of the present invention, the process of integrating the evaluation results specifically includes the following steps: The assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, and post-disaster reconstruction costs are converted into quantifiable macroeconomic indicators; direct economic losses are converted into regional GDP losses; indirect losses are estimated to have a medium- and long-term impact on the regional economy; and individual and household losses are mapped to indicators such as residents' consumption power and savings rate. Construct a comprehensive assessment framework and integrate the results; establish a multi-level indicator system covering direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, and social impacts; combine quantitative analysis with qualitative assessment to form an integrated multi-dimensional assessment matrix; The integrated results are superimposed on the regional development plan, and different recovery paths are predicted through simulation; the role of reconstruction investment in promoting the optimization of regional tobacco leaf structure is evaluated, and the potential impact of disasters on population migration and urbanization process is analyzed.

[0016] As a further improvement of the present invention, the process of constructing the overall regional economic evaluation program specifically includes the following steps: The integrated assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and individual household impacts are input into the overall regional economic assessment program to simulate the post-disaster economic recovery path; Compare the assessment results from the overall regional economic assessment procedure with the actual statistical data; if the difference is greater than the preset deviation, adjust the weight coefficient to revise the assessment results; Set up a visual interface in the overall regional economic assessment program to convert the adjusted assessment results into icons and structured reports; combine risk analysis tools to assess potential future risks and propose strategies for economic recovery paths.

[0017] To achieve the above object, the present invention also provides the following technical solutions: A reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system, comprising: The disaster impact assessment module is used to obtain data on the damage to tangible assets and economic losses caused by the disaster, quantify them, and derive direct loss assessment results. Based on the direct loss assessment results, it summarizes the impact of the disaster on society and the economy to derive indirect loss assessment results; and assesses the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area. The correlation analysis module is used to derive macroeconomic impact analysis results based on direct and indirect loss assessment results; and to assess the impact of disasters on individual and family living standards; The assessment result integration module is used to integrate the direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and family impact assessment results to obtain the overall regional economic assessment results.

[0018] To achieve the above object, the present invention also provides the following technical solutions: An electronic device includes a processor and a memory coupled to the processor, wherein the memory stores program instructions that can be executed by the processor; when the processor executes the program instructions stored in the memory, the above-mentioned reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method is implemented.

[0019] To achieve the above object, the present invention also provides the following technical solutions: A storage medium stores program instructions, which, when executed by a processor, can implement the above-mentioned reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method.

[0020] This paper presents an economic assessment method for reservoir-area landslide and surge disasters based on the DaLA method. By comprehensively considering direct losses, indirect economic losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and the impact on individuals and families, this method provides a comprehensive, accurate, and practical assessment tool for disaster management decision-making. The implementation of this invention not only improves the accuracy of disaster assessments and reduces economic losses caused by disasters, but also accelerates post-disaster reconstruction and enhances the economic resilience of the reservoir area. Furthermore, the promotion and application of this method will help improve society's understanding and management of disaster risks, contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] Figure 1 This is a schematic flow chart of steps in one embodiment of a method for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in a reservoir area according to the present invention; Figure 2 This is a flow chart showing the steps for obtaining an indirect loss assessment result according to an embodiment of a reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method of the present invention; Figure 3This is a flowchart showing the steps of one embodiment of a method for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in a reservoir area according to the present invention, wherein the cost of post-disaster reconstruction includes the funds required to repair or rebuild damaged assets; Figure 4 This is a schematic flow chart of the steps of evaluating the impact of a disaster on the living standards of individuals and families in one embodiment of a reservoir area landslide surge disaster assessment method of the present invention; Figure 5 A schematic flow chart of the steps for obtaining the overall regional economic assessment results according to an embodiment of the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method of the present invention; Figure 6 A schematic flow chart of the steps for comprehensively analyzing the correlation of various assessment results in one embodiment of a reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method of the present invention; Figure 7 This is a schematic flow chart of the steps for verifying the causal relationship between various assessment results in one embodiment of the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method of the present invention; Figure 8 This is a schematic flow chart of steps for integrating various assessment results in one embodiment of a reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method of the present invention; Figure 9 A schematic flow chart of the steps for constructing an overall regional economic assessment program according to an embodiment of the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method of the present invention; Figure 10 A schematic diagram of the functional modules of an embodiment of a reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system according to the present invention; Figure 11 A specific schematic diagram of an embodiment of the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system of the present invention; Figure 12 This is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an electronic device of the present invention; Figure 13 This is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a storage medium of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0022] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0023] The terms "first," "second," and "third" in this disclosure are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of the technical features indicated. Therefore, features specified as "first," "second," or "third" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of such features. In the description of this disclosure, "plurality" means at least two, for example, two, three, etc., unless otherwise specifically defined. All directional indications (such as up, down, left, right, front, back, etc.) in the embodiments of this disclosure are intended only to illustrate the relative positional relationships and movement of components in a specific posture (as shown in the accompanying drawings). If the specific posture changes, the directional indications will also change accordingly. Furthermore, the terms "including," "having," and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions. For example, a process, method, system, product, or apparatus comprising a series of steps or elements is not limited to the listed steps or elements and may optionally include steps or elements not listed, or may optionally include other steps or elements inherent to such process, method, product, or apparatus.

[0024] References herein to "embodiments" mean that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiments may be included in at least one embodiment of the present invention. The appearance of this phrase in various places in the specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor does it constitute a separate or alternative embodiment that is mutually exclusive of other embodiments. It is understood, both explicitly and implicitly, by those skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein may be combined with other embodiments.

[0025] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides an embodiment of a method for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in a reservoir area. In this embodiment, the process of the method for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in a reservoir area specifically includes the following steps: Step S1: Obtain data on the damage to tangible assets and economic losses caused by the disaster, quantify them, and derive direct loss assessment results; based on the direct loss assessment results, summarize the social and economic impacts of the disaster to derive indirect loss assessment results; and assess the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area; Step S2: Based on the direct loss assessment results and the indirect loss assessment results, obtain the macroeconomic impact analysis results; assess the impact of the disaster on the living standards of individuals and families; Step S3: Integrate the direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and family impact assessment results to obtain the overall regional economic assessment results.

[0026] Preferably, the present embodiment evaluates from multiple dimensions such as direct losses, indirect losses, macroeconomic impacts, and personal and family living standards; qualitative impacts are converted into quantitative data through direct loss assessment (such as damage to fixed assets, infrastructure damage, etc.) and indirect loss assessment (such as industry chain interruption, productivity decline, etc.); long-term economic impact assessment, and post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment, reflect the dynamic simulation capability of disaster impact, which can predict the trend of future economic recovery; the integrated macroeconomic, social life and regional economic assessment results emphasize the importance of cross-departmental and cross-regional data sharing; through the systematic loss assessment process, the key impacts of disasters on different fields can be quickly identified, providing scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making; the results of direct loss, indirect loss and macroeconomic impact help the government and relevant departments to reasonably allocate post-disaster reconstruction resources, reduce duplication of investment and resource waste; through long-term impact assessment, more forward-looking disaster prevention and mitigation policies can be developed to enhance the resilience of regional economy; assessing the impact of disasters on personal and family living standards helps to develop more targeted social security policies to alleviate the impact of disasters on vulnerable groups. A method for comprehensive assessment of the economic impact of landslide and surge disasters on the reservoir area is provided, including direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, and macroeconomic and personal impacts. By considering the impact of multiple levels, the accuracy of the assessment is improved, providing more reliable data support for disaster management decisions. The assessment method is easy to implement and can provide practical guidance for the development of disaster response strategies and recovery plans.

[0027] Further, as shown in Figure 2 The process of obtaining indirect loss assessment results in step S1 includes the following steps: Step S11: Physical asset damage caused by landslides and surges; the value of the loss is assessed based on the replacement cost of the assets before the disaster; detailed investigation and assessment of damaged assets to determine economic value and repair cost; direct loss assessment results are obtained; Step S12: Obtain indirect loss assessment results by analyzing industry production losses and service industry income; assess the impact of the disaster on the affected reservoir area, including business activities, employment rates, and supply chain disruptions; summarize the overall impact of the disaster on society and the economy, including supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity, and reduced employment opportunities; Step S13: Post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment: post-disaster reconstruction costs include funds needed to repair or rebuild damaged assets; assess reconstruction needs, including material, labor, and time requirements, as well as related economic costs; budget planning and cost-benefit analysis of reconstruction projects. Preferably, this embodiment assesses the loss value based on the replacement cost of assets before the disaster, and obtains direct loss assessment results through detailed investigation of the economic value and repair cost of damaged assets; by analyzing industry production losses and service industry income, assesses the socio-economic impacts such as business activities, employment rates and supply chain disruptions in the affected reservoir area; the budget planning and cost-benefit analysis of reconstruction projects focus on formulating reasonable reconstruction strategies; through methods such as replacement cost method and vulnerability analysis, ensure the scientific nature and accuracy of loss assessment; post-disaster assessment not only focuses on the loss of physical assets, but also covers the impact at the socio-economic level, such as supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity and reduced employment opportunities; through quantitative estimation of reconstruction needs, the priority infrastructure and sectors for reconstruction are clarified, thereby optimizing resource allocation and reducing the risk of future disasters; post-disaster reconstruction assessment emphasizes long-term development needs to ensure that reconstruction projects not only meet current needs, but can also adapt to possible changes and challenges in the future.

[0028] Furthermore, if Figure 3 As shown, the post-disaster reconstruction cost in step S13 includes the funds required to repair or rebuild the damaged assets, which specifically includes the following steps: Step S131: This is achieved by quantifying the damage to tangible assets and economic losses caused by the disaster, including the direct costs of building damage and infrastructure destruction; Among them, direct losses usually refer to the damage to physical assets, and the calculation formula is:

[0029] direct losses; is the replacement cost of the asset; The asset replacement cost refers to the cost of repurchasing or repairing the damaged asset at the current market price, and the damage ratio refers to the extent of the asset damage. Step S132: Summarize the overall impact of the disaster on society and the economy, including supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity, and job losses. Indirect losses involve losses caused by the interruption or reduction of economic activities, and the calculation formula is:

[0030] in, indirect losses; To reduce industry output; is the unit output value; lower revenues for the service sector; Step S133: Estimate the government intervention measures required to initiate recovery work in the short term and the funding requirements for comprehensive post-disaster recovery and reconstruction; post-disaster reconstruction costs include the funds required to repair or rebuild damaged assets, and the calculation formula is:

[0031] in, For reconstruction costs; For repair costs; The number of assets.

[0032] Preferably, the direct loss assessment of this embodiment is achieved by quantifying the damage to tangible assets and economic operation losses caused by the disaster, including the direct costs of damage to buildings and infrastructure.

[0033] Direct losses usually refer to the damage to physical assets and are calculated as follows:

[0034] in, direct losses; is the replacement cost of the asset; is the destruction ratio; Among them, asset replacement cost refers to the cost of repurchasing or repairing damaged assets at current market prices, and the damage ratio refers to the degree of asset damage.

[0035] Indirect economic loss assessment: summarizes the overall impact of the disaster on society and the economy, including supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity, and loss of employment opportunities.

[0036] Indirect losses involve losses caused by the interruption or reduction of economic activities and are calculated as follows:

[0037] in, indirect losses; To reduce industry output; is the unit output value; lower revenues for the service sector; Post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment: Estimate the government intervention measures required to initiate recovery work in the short term and the funding needs for comprehensive post-disaster recovery and reconstruction; Post-disaster reconstruction costs include the funds needed to repair or rebuild damaged assets and are calculated as follows:

[0038] in, For reconstruction costs; For repair costs; The number of assets.

[0039] Furthermore, if Figure 4 As shown in FIG, the process of assessing the impact of a disaster on the living standards of individuals and families in step S2 specifically includes the following steps: Step S21: Analyze the impact of landslide surge on macroeconomic variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP), balance of payments, and fiscal budget; assess the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area, including the impact on national economic growth, foreign economic and fiscal balance; The impact on macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, balance of payments, and fiscal budget, can be assessed using the following formula:

[0040]

[0041]

[0042] in, Add value to lost industries; Step S22: Assess the impact of the disaster on individual and household living standards, including employment and income declines, and higher-than-normal household or individual expenditures; analyze the impact of the disaster on individual and household income and living standards, and consider the long-term impact of the disaster on household economic structure and resilience; Step S23: The impact on individuals and households, including decreased employment and income, and higher than normal household or personal spending, can be assessed using the following formula:

[0043]

[0044] in, is the employment decline rate; is the average household income; For additional expenditure items; The amount of expenditure.

[0045] Preferably, the macroeconomic impact analysis of this embodiment: assesses the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area, including the impact on national economic growth, foreign-related economy and fiscal balance; The impact on macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, balance of payments, and fiscal budget, can be assessed using the following formula:

[0046] Δ

[0047] in, Add value to lost industries; Individual and household impact assessment: Analyze the impact of the disaster on individual and household income and living standards, and consider the long-term impact of the disaster on household economic structure and resilience. The impact on individuals and households, including employment and income declines, and higher-than-normal household or individual expenditures, can be assessed using the following formula:

[0048]

[0049] in, is the employment decline rate; is the average household income; For additional expenditure items; The amount of expenditure.

[0050] Furthermore, if Figure 5 As shown, the process of obtaining the overall regional economic assessment result in step S3 specifically includes the following steps: Step S31: Comprehensively analyzing the relevance of direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and family impact assessment results; Step S32: Mapping each assessment result to macroeconomic indicators, analyzing the impact of the disaster on the regional economy, and predicting the economic recovery path in combination with long-term development indicators; integrating each assessment result; Step S33: Construct an overall regional economic assessment program, input the integrated assessment results into the overall regional economic assessment program, review each assessment result, and adjust each assessment result based on actual data; form the adjusted assessment results into a comprehensive assessment report and output it visually.

[0051] Preferably, this embodiment embodies the characteristics of a systematic assessment by conducting a correlation analysis on multi-dimensional assessment results such as direct losses, indirect losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and personal and family impacts. Through correlation analysis, the complex impact of disasters on the regional economy and society can be revealed, helping decision makers to more accurately understand the comprehensive consequences of disasters and provide a scientific basis for formulating post-disaster recovery strategies. By mapping each assessment result to macroeconomic indicators and combining them with long-term development indicators to predict the economic recovery path, by mapping to macroeconomic indicators, the impact of the disaster on the total regional economy can be quantified, and the time and path of economic recovery can be predicted. By constructing an overall regional economic assessment program, the integrated assessment results are input into the program for review, and the assessment results are adjusted based on actual data. Finally, a comprehensive assessment report is formed and visually output; through visual output, the overall situation of post-disaster recovery and changes in key indicators can be more intuitively displayed, making it easier for decision makers to quickly understand and take action.

[0052] Furthermore, if Figure 6 As shown, the process of comprehensively analyzing the correlation of each evaluation result in step S31 specifically includes the following steps: Step S311: Summarize the assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and individual household impacts, unify the data format and statistical caliber; construct cross-sectoral and multi-level correlation indicators based on the transmission path of the disaster impact; Step S312: Verify the causal relationship between the assessment results; analyze the elasticity between direct losses and macroeconomic indicators; and predict the driving effect of post-disaster reconstruction investment on long-term indicators such as employment and tax revenue. Combined with vulnerability assessments, identify the pressure transmission of household losses on public service demand; Step S313: If there are contradictions between different assessment results, trace back the data source and check and adjust the weights; output the correlation strength and direction of each assessment result through visualization software, mark the key transmission nodes, and explain the data limitations and assumptions in the report.

[0053] Preferably, this embodiment aggregates assessment results for direct losses, indirect losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and individual household impacts, unifying the data format and statistical caliber. Cross-sectoral, multi-level correlation indicators are constructed based on the transmission pathways of disaster impacts. This involves integrating losses across multiple sectors (such as agriculture, industry, and infrastructure) into a comprehensive assessment framework. This provides a comprehensive assessment of disaster losses, helping decision-makers understand the multifaceted socioeconomic impacts of disasters. The constructed correlation indicators can reveal the transmission mechanisms between different sectors, providing a scientific basis for post-disaster recovery strategies. Dynamic simulations help predict the impact of post-disaster reconstruction investment on long-term economic indicators such as employment and tax revenue. Statistical analysis and econometric models are used to verify the causal relationship between the various assessment results. The elasticity between direct losses and macroeconomic indicators—that is, the degree to which changes in losses affect economic indicators—is analyzed. Combined with vulnerability assessments, the impact of post-disaster reconstruction investment on long-term economic indicators such as employment and tax revenue is predicted. Clarify the causal relationship between disaster losses and macroeconomic changes to inform policymaking. Elasticity analysis helps identify key economic variables, providing a reference for resource allocation in post-disaster recovery. Forecast the long-term economic impact of post-disaster reconstruction investments to support government and social capital investment decisions. If conflicting assessment results are found, trace the data sources and verify and adjust the weights. Visualization software is used to output the strength and direction of the correlation between each assessment result, and key transmission nodes are marked. Detailed data limitations and assumptions are included in the report to ensure the transparency and credibility of the assessment results.

[0054] Furthermore, if Figure 7 As shown, the process of verifying the causal relationship between the evaluation results in step S312 specifically includes the following steps: Step S3121: Control confounding variables, analyze the correlation between direct economic indicators and macroeconomic indicators, and solve the endogeneity problem; and use the threshold of disaster occurrence to simulate the sudden change of economic indicators before and after the disaster to verify the causal relationship; Step S3122: Use time series to test whether a variable is predictive of another variable and determine the direction of causality; analyze the causal relationship between losses in different industries and the overall economic recession; obtain data such as the duration of labor shutdowns and sector distribution, compare recovery paths, and verify the rationality of the causal chain; Step S3123: Use post-disaster policy intervention as an exogenous shock to analyze the pulling effect on employment and tax revenue; compare the differences in policy implementation strength in different regions to identify causal effects; construct a multi-level indicator kingdom and quantify the strength of transmission nodes through path analysis.

[0055] Preferably, this embodiment controls confounding variables through methods such as stratification, matching, and regression to ensure the accuracy of research results. By setting a threshold for disaster occurrence and simulating changes in economic indicators before and after a disaster, causal relationships can be verified. By controlling confounding variables and using methods such as instrumental variables, causal relationships can be more accurately identified and the interference of confounding factors can be avoided. Disaster threshold simulation helps researchers observe changes in economic indicators before and after a disaster, thereby verifying the direct impact of the disaster on the economy. By controlling confounding variables and endogeneity, the research results are more scientific and reliable, providing a basis for policy formulation. The predictive and causal relationships between variables are analyzed. A multi-level indicator system is constructed to analyze the causal relationship between losses in different industries and the overall economic recession. Data on labor downtime and sectoral distribution are obtained to verify the rationality of the recovery path. Post-disaster policy interventions are treated as exogenous variables to analyze their effects on employment and tax revenue. By comparing the differences in policy implementation across regions, researchers can identify the actual effects of policy interventions. A multi-level indicator system is constructed, and the strength of each transmission node is quantified through path analysis.

[0056] Furthermore, if Figure 8 As shown, the process of integrating the evaluation results in step S32 specifically includes the following steps: Step S321: Convert the assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, and post-disaster reconstruction costs into quantifiable macroeconomic indicators; convert direct economic losses into regional GDP loss values; estimate the medium- and long-term impact of indirect losses on the regional economy; and map individual and household losses to indicators such as resident consumption power and savings rate. Step S322: Construct a comprehensive assessment framework and integrate the results; establish a multi-level indicator system covering direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, and social impacts; combine quantitative analysis with qualitative assessment to form an integrated multi-dimensional assessment matrix; Step S323: Superimpose the integration results with regional development planning, predict different recovery paths through simulation; evaluate the promoting effect of reconstruction investment on regional tobacco structure optimization, and analyze the potential impact of disasters on population migration and urbanization process.

[0057] The process of forming the integrated multi-dimensional evaluation matrix specifically includes the following steps: Step S3221: Starting from the three types of core quantitative data (direct GDP loss value, medium and long-term economic impact coefficient, and resident consumption and savings change rate) output from step S321, the weight level of each index is determined through attribute correlation analysis. The direct economic loss is taken as the bottom basic index, and the industry chain correlation model is used to extend the industry ripple effect index to the middle level, and finally form the economic total gap index at the top level; Step S3222: The four dimensions (material damage, economic operation, reconstruction input, and social response) established in step S322 are taken as coordinate axes, and the quantitative indexes generated in step S321 are spatially positioned according to the impact timeliness (immediate / medium / long-term); for example, the post-disaster reconstruction cost is mapped to the capital redistribution parameter of the economic operation dimension and the fiscal expenditure index of the reconstruction input dimension; Step S3223: Through the construction of a three-dimensional influence transmission model, the rigid loss data (such as road damage) in the index system of step S322 and the flexible influence parameters (such as employment fluctuation rate) are established in a two-way conduction relationship; the correlation results analyzed in step S31 are converted into conduction coefficients between different indexes, so that the infrastructure recovery progress and the manufacturing industry production capacity recovery form dynamic constraint conditions; The process of constructing the three-dimensional influence transmission model specifically includes the following steps: Step S32231: Taking the macroeconomic indexes (regional GDP loss value, resident consumption change rate) generated in step S321 as the reference axis, the multi-level index system (material damage intensity, industry chain interruption index, and fiscal reconstruction pressure value) defined in step S322 as the extension axis, and the regional planning parameters (industrial structure optimization target, population migration threshold) of step S323 as the constraint axis, a three-dimensional coordinate space covering economy, society, and planning is formed. The reference axis data is derived from the direct loss quantification result, the extension axis inherits the medium and long-term impact analysis of indirect loss, and the constraint axis integrates the post-disaster reconstruction target.

[0058] Step S32232: Based on the correlation analysis results from step S31, the infrastructure damage rate from the direct loss assessment results is mapped to the production stagnation coefficient of the expansion axis. This is then converted into the manufacturing GDP decline value of the baseline axis using the industrial chain dependency model. Simultaneously, the road repair investment from the post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results is converted into the proportion of infrastructure investment in the constraint axis, triggering changes in the labor redistribution index of the expansion axis. During this process, the qualitative assessment factors from step S322 (such as social organization effectiveness) serve as correction factors to adjust transmission efficiency.

[0059] Step S32233: The recovery path parameters simulated in step S323 are embedded in the model to form a time-dependent evolution mechanism. For example, the intensity of reconstruction investment in the first year after the disaster influences the availability of credit for private enterprises on the expansion axis through the fiscal leverage ratio on the constraint axis, which in turn feeds back into the recovery rate of small and medium-sized enterprises on the baseline axis. The decline in the savings rate in the individual and household impact assessment results establishes a two-way interaction channel through the change in household consumption power and the retail industry's prosperity on the expansion axis.

[0060] Step S32234: Through spatial overlay, discrete impact values ​​in the three-dimensional coordinates (e.g., GDP loss for a specific industry, population loss rate for a specific region) are converted into a comprehensive impact surface. This surface inherits the temporal stratification characteristics of the multidimensional assessment matrix from step S322 and incorporates the planning parameter adjustments from step S323. The final output is a three-dimensional impact map containing characteristic values ​​such as the peak economic impact, the turning point of social recovery, and the reconstruction benefit cycle. Each node in the map reflects the quantitative indicators and associated weights from the previous steps, providing a dynamic spatial and temporal representation of the disaster's impact.

[0061] Step S3224: Based on the structured data network formed in the first three stages, the macroeconomic indicators from step S321, the qualitative assessment factors from step S322, and the regional planning parameters from step S323 are integrated through dimensionality reduction using an orthogonal projection algorithm. This ultimately generates a multidimensional assessment matrix encompassing time dimensions (1 / 3 / 5 years after the disaster), spatial dimensions (affected core area / radiated area), and intensity dimensions (economic impact / social resilience). The cell data is generated from the original indicators through standardized transformation and correlation weighting.

[0062] This process establishes a ternary coupling mechanism of "indicator attributes - spatial dimensions - temporal evolution" to transform the correlation analysis results of step S31 into dynamic weights between indicators. The quantitative data of step S321 becomes the source of the matrix's benchmark values, and the planning parameters of step S323 constitute the matrix's correction coefficients, forming an evaluation framework with temporal and spatial evolution characteristics.

[0063] Preferably, this embodiment realizes the quantitative conversion from physical losses to economic impacts by converting disaster losses into macroeconomic indicators; distinguishes between direct losses and indirect losses, and estimates their impact on the regional economy separately, reflecting the ability to comprehensively and meticulously analyze different types of losses; maps individual and family losses to macroeconomic indicators such as residents' consumption power and savings rate, reflecting an in-depth consideration of the impact at the social level; constructs a multi-level evaluation system by integrating direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs and social impacts, reflecting a comprehensive analysis of the impact of disasters; forms a multi-dimensional evaluation matrix by integrating different types of losses and social impacts, providing a comprehensive reference for post-disaster recovery; predicts the possible results of post-disaster recovery by simulating different recovery paths, reflecting a forward-looking analysis of future development trends; evaluates the optimization effect of reconstruction investment on the regional economic structure (such as the tobacco industry), as well as the impact of disasters on population migration and urbanization; combines post-disaster recovery with regional development planning, reflecting cross-domain comprehensive analysis capabilities.

[0064] Furthermore, if Figure 9 As shown, the process of constructing the overall regional economic evaluation program in step S33 specifically includes the following steps: Step S331: Input the integrated assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and individual household impacts into the overall regional economic assessment program to simulate the post-disaster economic recovery path; Step S332: Compare the evaluation results in the overall regional economic evaluation program with the actual statistical data; if the difference is greater than the preset deviation, adjust the weight coefficient to correct the evaluation results; Step S333: Set up a visual interface in the overall regional economic assessment program to convert the adjusted assessment results into icons and structured reports; combine risk analysis tools to assess future potential risks and propose strategies for economic recovery paths.

[0065] Preferably, in step S331 of this embodiment, a comprehensive disaster economic loss assessment system is constructed by integrating direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and personal family impacts. Based on historical disaster data and regional economic characteristics, combined with input-output tables and scenario analysis methods, a theoretical basis and scientific guidance are provided for post-disaster economic recovery; by comparing the model assessment results with actual statistical data, the degree of deviation of the assessment results is detected. If the deviation exceeds the preset threshold, the assessment result is corrected by adjusting the weight coefficient; by setting up a visual interface, complex assessment results are presented in the form of charts, which facilitates users to intuitively understand disaster losses and recovery paths; combined with risk analysis tools, potential risks after the disaster are assessed and targeted response strategies are proposed. A structured report is generated, including disaster losses, recovery paths, risk assessments, response strategies, etc., to provide comprehensive information support for policymakers.

[0066] like Figure 10 As shown, this embodiment also provides an embodiment of a reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system. In this embodiment, the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system is applied to the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method in the above embodiment. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system includes: Disaster Impact Assessment Module 1 is used to obtain data on the damage to tangible assets and economic losses caused by the disaster, quantify them, and derive direct loss assessment results; based on the direct loss assessment results, summarize the impact of the disaster on society and the economy to derive indirect loss assessment results; and assess the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area; Correlation Analysis Module 2 is used to derive macroeconomic impact analysis results based on direct and indirect loss assessment results; and to assess the impact of the disaster on the living standards of individuals and families; The assessment result integration module 3 is used to integrate the direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and family impact assessment results to obtain the overall regional economic assessment results.

[0067] Preferably, this embodiment obtains data on the damage to tangible assets caused by disasters and economic operation losses, and conducts quantitative analysis. Its core lies in direct loss assessment, including statistics and calculations of material losses such as buildings, infrastructure, and crops; it can quickly and accurately quantify direct economic losses, and provide a scientific basis for post-disaster rescue and reconstruction. Based on the direct loss assessment results, the indirect impact of the disaster on society and the economy is further analyzed; it can reveal the profound impact of the disaster on the macro-economy and provide decision support for policymakers. The multi-dimensional assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and the impact on personal and family living standards are integrated. It can provide comprehensive regional economic assessment results, and provide a scientific basis for post-disaster reconstruction planning and long-term development (for specific principles, please refer to the attached). Figure 11 ).

[0068] like Figure 12 As shown, this embodiment provides an embodiment of an electronic device. In this embodiment, the electronic device 4 includes a processor 41 and a memory 42 coupled to the processor 41.

[0069] The memory 42 stores program instructions for implementing the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method of any of the above embodiments.

[0070] The processor 41 is used to execute the program instructions stored in the memory 42 to implement the layout of the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method.

[0071] The processor 41 may also be referred to as a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The processor 41 may be an integrated circuit chip with signal processing capabilities. The processor 41 may also be a general-purpose processor, a digital signal processor (DSP), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), or other programmable logic device, a discrete gate or transistor logic device, or a discrete hardware component. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor.

[0072] Furthermore, Figure 13This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a storage medium in an embodiment of the present application. The storage medium 5 in the embodiment of the present application stores program instructions 51 that can implement all of the above methods. The program instructions 51 can be stored in the above storage medium in the form of a software product, including a number of instructions for causing a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) or a processor to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program codes, such as a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, or terminal devices such as a computer, server, mobile phone, and tablet.

[0073] In the several embodiments provided by the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, devices, and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device embodiments described above are merely illustrative. For example, the division of units is merely a logical function division. In actual implementation, there may be other division methods, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. In addition, the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interface, device or unit, which can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

[0074] In addition, the functional units in the various embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit. The above-mentioned integrated units may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units. The above is only an embodiment of the present invention and does not limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made using the contents of the present invention specification and drawings, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, are also included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

[0075] The above detailed description of the specific embodiments of the invention is intended to be illustrative only, and the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above. For those skilled in the art, any equivalent modifications or substitutions to the invention are also within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, equivalent changes, modifications, and improvements made without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention are also encompassed within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the impact of landslide and surge disasters in a reservoir area, characterized in that: The process of the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method includes the following steps: Obtain data on the damage to tangible assets and economic losses caused by the disaster, quantify them, and arrive at a direct loss assessment result; based on the direct loss assessment result, summarize the social and economic impact of the disaster to arrive at an indirect loss assessment result; and assess the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area; Draw up macroeconomic impact analysis based on direct and indirect loss assessments; assess the impact of the disaster on individual and family living standards; The direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and family impact assessment results are integrated to obtain the overall regional economic assessment results.

2. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The process of arriving at an indirect loss assessment includes the following steps: Physical damage to assets caused by landslide surges; the value of the damage will be assessed based on the replacement cost of the assets before the disaster; a detailed investigation and assessment of the damaged assets will be conducted to determine the economic value and repair costs; and an assessment of the direct losses will be obtained; An assessment of indirect losses is conducted by analyzing industry production losses and service industry revenue; an assessment of business activities, employment rates, and supply chain disruptions in the affected reservoir area is conducted; and a summary of the overall social and economic impacts of the disaster, including supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity, and job losses. Conduct post-disaster reconstruction cost assessments: Post-disaster reconstruction costs include the funds needed to repair or rebuild damaged assets; assess reconstruction needs, including material, labor, and time requirements, as well as the associated economic costs; and conduct budget planning and cost-benefit analysis for reconstruction projects.

3. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Disaster recovery costs include the funds needed to repair or rebuild damaged assets through a process that includes the following steps: This is achieved by quantifying the damage to physical assets and economic losses caused by disasters, including the direct costs of damaged buildings and infrastructure; Summarize the overall social and economic impact of the disaster, including supply chain disruptions, reduced production capacity, and job losses; indirect losses involve losses caused by the interruption or reduction of economic activities; Estimate the government intervention needed to initiate recovery efforts in the short term and the funding needed to achieve comprehensive post-disaster recovery and reconstruction costs; post-disaster reconstruction costs include the funds needed to repair or rebuild damaged assets.

4. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The process of assessing the impact of a disaster on the living standards of individuals and families includes the following steps: Analyze the impact of landslide surges on macroeconomic variables; assess the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area, including the impact on national economic growth, foreign trade and fiscal balance; Assess the impact of disasters on individual and household living standards, including employment and income declines, and higher-than-normal household or individual expenditures; analyze the impact of disasters on individual and household income and living standards, and consider the long-term impact of disasters on household economic structures and resilience; Impacts on individuals and families, including decreased employment and income, and higher than normal household or personal spending.

5. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The process of obtaining the overall regional economic assessment results includes the following steps: Comprehensively analyze the relevance of direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and household impact assessment results; Mapping each assessment result to macroeconomic indicators, analyzing the impact of the disaster on the regional economy, and predicting the economic recovery path in combination with long-term development indicators; integrating each assessment result; Construct an overall regional economic assessment program, input the integrated assessment results into the overall regional economic assessment program, review each assessment result, and adjust each assessment result based on actual data; form the adjusted assessment results into a comprehensive assessment report and output it visually.

6. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 5, characterized in that: The process of comprehensively analyzing the correlation of various assessment results includes the following steps: Summarize the assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, post-disaster reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and individual household impacts, unifying the data format and statistical caliber; construct cross-sectoral and multi-level correlation indicators based on the transmission paths of disaster impacts; Verify the causal relationship between assessment results; analyze the elasticity between direct losses and macroeconomic indicators; and predict the impact of post-disaster reconstruction investment on long-term employment and tax revenue indicators. Combined with vulnerability assessments, identify the pressure transmission from household losses to public service demand. If there are contradictions between different assessment results, the data source will be traced back and the weights will be checked and adjusted; the correlation strength and direction of each assessment result will be output through visualization software, and the key transmission nodes will be marked, and the data limitations and assumptions will be explained in the report.

7. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 6, characterized in that: The process of verifying the causal relationship between the assessment results includes the following steps: By controlling for confounding variables, we analyze the correlation between direct economic indicators and macroeconomic indicators to resolve the endogeneity problem. We also simulate the sudden changes in economic indicators before and after the disaster using the threshold of the disaster to verify the causal relationship. Use time series to test whether one variable is predictive of another and determine the direction of causality; analyze the causal relationship between losses in different industries and the overall economic recession; obtain data on the duration of labor shutdowns and sector distribution, compare recovery paths, and verify the rationality of the causal chain; Using post-disaster policy interventions as exogenous shocks, we analyze the pulling effects on employment and tax revenue; compare the differences in policy implementation strength in different regions to identify causal effects; and construct a multi-level indicator kingdom to quantify the strength of transmission nodes through path analysis.

8. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The process of integrating the assessment results includes the following steps: The assessment results of direct losses, indirect losses, and post-disaster reconstruction costs are converted into quantifiable macroeconomic indicators; direct economic losses are converted into regional GDP losses; indirect losses are estimated to determine the medium- and long-term impact on the regional economy; and individual and household losses are mapped to indicators of household consumption power and savings rates. Construct a comprehensive assessment framework and integrate the results; establish a multi-level indicator system covering direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, and social impacts; combine quantitative analysis with qualitative assessment to form an integrated multi-dimensional assessment matrix; The integrated results are superimposed on the regional development plan, and different recovery paths are predicted through simulation; the role of reconstruction investment in promoting the optimization of regional tobacco leaf structure is evaluated, and the potential impact of disasters on population migration and urbanization process is analyzed.

9. The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to claim 5, characterized in that: The process of constructing an overall regional economic assessment program includes the following steps: The integrated direct losses, indirect losses, reconstruction costs, macroeconomic impacts, and individual household impact assessment results are input into the overall regional economic assessment program to simulate the post-disaster economic recovery path; Compare the assessment results from the overall regional economic assessment procedure with the actual statistical data; if the difference is greater than the preset deviation, adjust the weight coefficient to revise the assessment results; Set up a visual interface in the overall regional economic assessment program to convert the adjusted assessment results into icons and structured reports; combine risk analysis tools to assess potential future risks and propose strategies for economic recovery paths.

10. A reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system, which is applied to the reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: The reservoir area landslide surge disaster impact assessment system includes: The disaster impact assessment module is used to obtain data on the damage to tangible assets and economic losses caused by the disaster, quantify them, and derive direct loss assessment results. Based on the direct loss assessment results, it summarizes the impact of the disaster on society and the economy to derive indirect loss assessment results; and assesses the impact of the disaster on the long-term economic development of the reservoir area. The correlation analysis module is used to derive macroeconomic impact analysis results based on direct and indirect loss assessment results; and to assess the impact of disasters on individual and family living standards; The assessment result integration module is used to integrate the direct loss assessment results, indirect loss assessment results, post-disaster reconstruction cost assessment results, macroeconomic impact analysis results, and individual and family impact assessment results to obtain the overall regional economic assessment results.

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