Thermal power type optimization method and system suitable for novel electric power system

Abstract

The invention discloses a thermal power type optimization method and system suitable for a novel electric power system. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring data such as current various power supply installation scales and clear new various power supply installation scales in a region; carrying out power balance calculation by adopting a typical large-load mode to obtain a planned annual thermal power newly-added installation demand; the typical large-load mode is the mode with the maximum load; carrying out electric quantity balance calculation on the planning year to obtain a total thermal power generation demand of the planning year; solving the average utilization hours of the planned annual thermal power according to the planned annual thermal power newly-added installation demand and the planned annual thermal power total generating capacity demand; calculating the cost per kilowatt-hour of different types of newly-built thermal power in the planned year according to the planned annual thermal power newly-added installation demand, the planned annual thermal power total generating capacity demand and the average utilization hours; and selecting the thermal power type with the lowest kilowatt-hour cost as the final new thermal power configuration. According to the method, the thermal power type suitable for the regional power system can be optimized, so that the cost of the power system is lower.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of power system planning, in particular to a thermal power type optimization method and system suitable for a new power system. BACKGROUND

[0002] Currently, the supporting power supply planning is mainly examined through a single dimension of power and energy balance, and only combined with actual project reserve conditions and project unit construction willingness, without considering the constraints of power generation cost from the power supply side, so the calculated thermal power configuration scheme is not the most economical. Therefore, a new thermal power configuration method is urgently needed. SUMMARY

[0003] The present application provides a thermal power type optimization method and system suitable for a new power system to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background art.

[0004] To achieve the above purpose, the technical scheme of the present application is as follows: The present application provides a thermal power type optimization method suitable for a new power system, comprising the following steps: S1, obtaining the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the region, the installed capacity of various types of power sources to be newly built, the output coefficient of various types of power sources, the load forecast result of the planning year and the power forecast result of the planning year; S2, according to the installed capacity of various types of power sources, the installed capacity of various types of power sources to be newly built, the load forecast result of the planning year and the output coefficient of various types of power sources, and using a typical large load mode to calculate the power balance, the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year is obtained; the typical large load mode is the mode with the largest load; S3, according to the installed capacity of various types of power sources, the installed capacity of various types of power sources to be newly built, the load forecast result of the planning year and the power forecast result of the planning year, the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year is obtained by calculating the power balance of the planning year; S4, the average utilization hours of thermal power in the planning year are solved according to the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year and the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year; S5, the power cost of multiple different types of newly built thermal power in the planning year is calculated according to the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year, the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year and the average utilization hours; S6, then the type of thermal power with the lowest power cost in the planning year is selected from the power cost of multiple different types of newly built thermal power in the planning year as the final newly built thermal power configuration.

[0005] Further, the calculation formula of the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year is as follows: ; Wherein, For planning the annual new installed capacity of thermal power; For the specified installed capacity of hydropower; For the specified installed capacity of supporting power; For the specified installed capacity of wind power; For the specified installed capacity of photovoltaic power; For the specified installed capacity of biomass power; For the specified installed capacity of energy storage; For the specified scale of external power; For the maximum load; The specified installed capacity of each type of power = the installed capacity of each type of power in the present situation + the specified installed capacity of each type of newly built power; For the output coefficient of hydropower; the output coefficient of supporting power is 1; For the output coefficient of wind power; For the output coefficient of photovoltaic power; For the output coefficient of biomass power; For the output coefficient of energy storage; For the output coefficient of external power; For the typical large mode load coefficient.

[0006] Further, the calculation formula of the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year is specifically as follows: ; Wherein, is the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year, is the regional planning annual power demand, is the average utilization hours of hydropower installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of wind power installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of photovoltaic power installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of biomass power installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of energy storage; is the average utilization hours of external power.

[0007] Further, the calculation formula of the average utilization hours of thermal power in the planning year is specifically as follows: ; Wherein, c represents the average utilization hours of thermal power in the planning year.

[0008] Further, the S5 specifically comprises the following steps: S51, according to the demand for new installed capacity of thermal power in the planning year, the total cost of the kth newly built thermal power is calculated , and according to the design operation life of the kth thermal power unit and the total cost of the kth newly built thermal power , calculate the annual cost of the kth type of thermal power unit construction cost ; S52, according to the planning year thermal power new installed capacity demand, calculate the annual operation and maintenance cost of the kth type of new thermal power ; S53, according to the planning year thermal power new installed capacity demand And the average utilization hours c of the planning year thermal power, solve the annual fuel cost of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year ; S54, according to the planning year thermal power new installed capacity demand And the average utilization hours c of the planning year thermal power, solve the annual carbon emission cost of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year ; S55, sum the annual cost of construction , annual operation and maintenance cost , annual fuel cost And the annual carbon emission cost , get the total annual cost of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year ; S56, according to the total annual cost , the average utilization hours c of the planning year thermal power and the planning year thermal power new installed capacity demand Solve the degree of electricity cost of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year ; S57, cycle S51 to S56, calculate the degree of electricity cost of a variety of different types of new thermal power in the planning year.

[0009] Further, the calculation formula of the annual cost of the kth type of thermal power unit construction cost in S51 is: ; Wherein, The interest rate; The calculation formula of the annual operation and maintenance cost of the kth type of new thermal power in S52 is: ; Wherein, The unit operation and maintenance cost of the kth type of thermal power in the planning year.

[0010] Further, the calculation formula of the annual fuel cost of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year in S53 is: ; Wherein, The fuel consumption per degree of electricity of the first type of thermal power,​​​ is the fuel price of the first type of thermal power unit; the annual carbon emission cost of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year in S54 The calculation formula is: ; wherein, is the carbon emission coefficient corresponding to the fuel of the kth type of thermal power, is the carbon emission price in the planning year.

[0011] Further, the calculation formula of the total annual cost of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year in S55 The calculation formula is: .

[0012] Further, the calculation formula of the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour of the kth type of new thermal power in the planning year in S56 The calculation formula is: .

[0013] Another aspect of the present application also provides a thermal power type selection system suitable for a new power system, comprising a computer device end configured or executing the thermal power type selection method.

[0014] Advantages of the present application: The present application provides a thermal power selection method considering the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, which calculates the planning and average utilization hours of new thermal power under the premise of ensuring power supply, considers the average utilization hours of thermal power and the economic efficiency of various types of thermal power under the average utilization hours by the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, thereby guiding the selection of new thermal power, having guiding significance for power source planning and important significance for the development of new power system and the construction of new energy system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0015] Figure 1 is a flowchart of a thermal power type selection method suitable for a new power system in the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0016] In order to facilitate the understanding of the present application, the present application will be described more fully below with reference to the related drawings. The preferred embodiments of the present application are shown in the drawings. However, the present application can be realized in many other different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. On the contrary, the purpose of providing these embodiments is to make the disclosure of the present application more thorough and comprehensive.

[0017] Referring to Figure 1 , the present application provides a thermal power type selection method suitable for a new power system, comprising the following steps: S1, obtaining the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the region, the installed capacity of various types of newly-built power sources, the output coefficient of various types of power sources, the load prediction result in the planning year and the power prediction result in the planning year; S2, performing power balance calculation in the planning year according to the installed capacity of various types of power sources, the installed capacity of various types of newly-built power sources, the load prediction result in the planning year and the output coefficient of various types of power sources, and adopting a typical large load mode to obtain the newly-built thermal power installation demand in the planning year; the typical large load mode is the mode with the largest load; S3, performing power balance calculation in the planning year according to the installed capacity of various types of power sources, the installed capacity of various types of newly-built power sources, the load prediction result in the planning year and the power prediction result in the planning year to obtain the total thermal power generation demand in the planning year; S4, solving the average utilization hours of thermal power in the planning year according to the newly-built thermal power installation demand in the planning year and the total thermal power generation demand in the planning year; S5, calculating the power cost of various types of newly-built thermal power in the planning year according to the newly-built thermal power installation demand in the planning year, the total thermal power generation demand in the planning year and the average utilization hours; S6, then selecting the type of thermal power with the lowest power cost from the power costs of various types of newly-built thermal power in the planning year as the final newly-built thermal power configuration.

[0018] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the newly-built thermal power installation demand in the planning year is as follows: ; wherein, is the newly-built thermal power installation demand in the planning year; is the installed hydropower capacity; is the installed supporting capacity; is the installed wind power capacity; is the installed photovoltaic capacity; is the installed biomass capacity; is the installed energy storage capacity; is the installed external power capacity; is the maximum load; the installed capacity of various types of power sources = the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the region + the installed capacity of various types of newly-built power sources; is the hydropower output coefficient; the supporting power output coefficient is 1; is the wind power output coefficient; is the photovoltaic output coefficient; is the biomass output coefficient; is the energy storage output coefficient; is the external power output coefficient; is a typical large mode load factor.

[0019] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the total power generation demand of the planning year thermal power is specifically as follows: ; wherein, is the total power generation demand of the planning year thermal power, is the regional planning year power prediction result, is the average utilization hours of hydropower installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of wind power installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of photovoltaic installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of biomass installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of energy storage; is the average utilization hours of electricity from outside the region.

[0020] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the average utilization hours of the planning year thermal power is specifically as follows: ; wherein, c represents the average utilization hours of the planning year thermal power.

[0021] In some embodiments, the S5 specifically comprises the following steps: S51, calculating the total construction cost M of the kth newly built thermal power according to the planning year thermal power newly installed capacity demand, k and according to the design operation life s of the kth thermal power unit, k and the total construction cost M of the kth newly built thermal power, k calculating the construction cost annual fee of the kth thermal power unit, ; S52, calculating the annual operation and maintenance cost fee of the kth newly built thermal power according to the planning year thermal power newly installed capacity demand, ; S53, solving the annual fuel cost fee of the kth newly built thermal power in the planning year according to the planning year thermal power newly installed capacity demand, and the average utilization hours c of the planning year thermal power, ; S54, solving the annual carbon emission cost fee of the kth newly built thermal power in the planning year according to the planning year thermal power newly installed capacity demand, and the average utilization hours c of the planning year thermal power, ; S55, summing up the construction cost annual fee, the annual operation and maintenance cost fee, the annual fuel cost fee, and the annual carbon emission cost fee, Summing up, the total annual cost of the kth new thermal power plant in the planning year is obtained ; S56, according to the total annual cost of the planning year , the average utilization hours of the planning year thermal power c and the planning year thermal power new installed capacity demand Solve the degree electricity cost of the kth new thermal power plant in the planning year ; S57, loop S51 to S56, and calculate the degree electricity cost of a plurality of different types of new thermal power plants in the planning year.

[0022] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the annual cost of the kth thermal power unit construction cost in S51 is: ; Wherein, is the interest rate; The calculation formula of the annual operation and maintenance cost of the kth new thermal power plant in S52 is: ; Wherein, is the unit operation and maintenance cost of the kth thermal power in the planning year.

[0023] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the annual fuel cost of the kth new thermal power plant in the planning year in S53 is: ; Wherein, is the fuel consumption per degree of the first thermal power, is the unit fuel price of the first thermal power; The calculation formula of the annual carbon emission cost of the kth new thermal power plant in the planning year in S54 is: ; Wherein, is the carbon emission coefficient corresponding to the fuel of the kth thermal power, is the carbon emission price in the planning year.

[0024] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the total annual cost of the kth new thermal power plant in the planning year in S55 is: .

[0025] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the degree electricity cost of the kth new thermal power plant in the planning year in S56 is: . ​​​​​​

[0026] The following is described by way of example for ease of understanding: Take the configuration of thermal power in a province in central China in 2030 as an example. The installed capacity of thermal power in this region is 26 million kilowatts in the current year, and the construction of thermal power with a capacity of 10 million kilowatts has been clearly defined.

[0027] Considering the installed capacity of various power sources in the current year, the load prediction of 76 million kilowatts in 2030, and the power prediction of 352 billion kilowatts, while considering the power source scale that has been clearly planned for operation, the thermal power that needs to be increased in 2030 reaches 10 million kilowatts, the power demand of thermal power reaches 115 billion kilowatts, and the average utilization hours of thermal power are 2500 hours.

[0028] The main thermal power in this region is coal-fired power and gas-fired power. The basic parameters of coal-fired power are shown in Table 1; Table 1: Basic parameters of coal-fired power;

[0029] The construction cost is 3400 yuan / kilowatt, the fuel carbon emission coefficient is 2.7 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of standard coal, the unit coal consumption is 300 grams / kilowatt-hour, the annual operation and maintenance cost is 240 yuan / kilowatt, the fuel price is 1000 yuan / ton, the carbon emission price is 115 yuan / ton, the design operation period is 30 years, and the interest rate is 6%.

[0030] The basic parameters of gas-fired power are shown in Table 2; Table 2: Basic parameters of gas-fired power;

[0031] The construction cost is 2400 yuan / kilowatt, the fuel carbon emission coefficient is 21.62 tons of carbon dioxide per 10,000 cubic meters, the unit gas consumption is 0.2 cubic meters / kilowatt-hour, the annual operation and maintenance cost is 120 yuan / kilowatt, the fuel price is 2.3 yuan / cubic meter, the carbon emission price is 115 yuan / ton, the design operation period is 30 years, and the interest rate is 6%.

[0032] In the new construction of 10 million kilowatts of thermal power, the average utilization hours of thermal power are 2500 hours, and the construction cost annual fee, operation and maintenance cost annual fee, fuel annual fee, carbon emission fee, total annual fee, and the cost of degree of electricity of coal-fired power and gas-fired power are calculated respectively. The results are shown in Table 3.

[0033] Table 3: Cost of degree of electricity of different thermal power;

[0034] Based on the calculation results of the cost of degree of electricity of coal-fired power and gas-fired power, it is concluded that in the case of thermal power 2500 hours, the cost of degree of electricity of coal-fired power is lower than that of gas-fired power, and the new construction of 10 million kilowatts of thermal power should be coal-fired power.

[0035] Another aspect of the present application also provides a thermal power type preferred system adapted to a new power system, comprising a computer device end configured or executing the thermal power type preferred method.

[0036] The above merely provides a specific implementation of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto, any person skilled in the art can easily think of changes or replacements within the technical range disclosed by the present application, which should be covered within the protection scope of the present application. Furthermore, the technical solutions of each embodiment of the present application can be combined with each other, but it must be based on the realization of the ordinary skilled in the art, when the combination of the technical solutions appears contradictory or unachievable, it should be considered that the combination of the technical solutions does not exist, nor within the protection scope required by the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for selecting a type of thermal power plant adapted to a new power system, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining the installed capacity of various types of power sources in the region, the installed capacity of various types of power sources to be newly built, the output coefficient of various types of power sources, the load prediction result of the planning year and the power prediction result of the planning year; S2, performing power balance calculation according to the installed capacity of various types of power sources, the installed capacity of various types of power sources to be newly built, the load prediction result of the planning year and the output coefficient of various types of power sources, and using a typical heavy load mode to obtain the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year; the typical heavy load mode is the mode with the largest load; S3, performing power balance calculation according to the installed capacity of various types of power sources, the installed capacity of various types of power sources to be newly built, the load prediction result of the planning year and the power prediction result of the planning year to obtain the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year; S4, solving the average utilization hours of thermal power in the planning year according to the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year and the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year; S5, calculating the power cost per kilowatt-hour of various types of newly built thermal power in the planning year according to the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year, the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year and the average utilization hours; S6, then selecting the type of thermal power with the lowest power cost per kilowatt-hour from the power cost per kilowatt-hour of various types of newly built thermal power in the planning year as the final configuration of newly built thermal power.

2. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 1, characterized by, The calculation formula of the new installed capacity demand of thermal power in the planning year is as follows: ； Wherein, For planning annual thermal power new installed capacity scale demand; For the already clear hydropower installed capacity scale; For the already clear supporting installed capacity scale; For the already clear wind power installed capacity scale; For the already clear photovoltaic installed capacity scale; For the already clear biomass installed capacity scale; For the already clear energy storage installed capacity scale; For the already clear external electricity scale; For the maximum load; The calculation formula of the total power generation demand of thermal power in the planning year is as follows: is the water power output coefficient; the supporting power output coefficient is 1; is the wind power output coefficient; is the photovoltaic power output coefficient; is the biomass power output coefficient; is the energy storage output coefficient; is the external power output coefficient; is the typical large mode load coefficient.

3. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 2, characterized by, The calculation formula of the average utilization hours of thermal power in the planning year is as follows: ； wherein, is the total annual electricity generation demand for planning, is the regional annual electricity forecast result for planning, is the average utilization hours of hydropower installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of wind power installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of photovoltaic installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of biomass installed capacity; is the average utilization hours of energy storage; is the average utilization hours of electricity from outside the region.

4. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 3, characterized by, Wherein, c represents the average utilization hours of thermal power in the planning year. ； The S5 specifically comprises the following steps:

5. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 4, characterized by, S57, repeating S51 to S56 to obtain the power cost per kilowatt-hour of various types of newly built thermal power in the planning year. S51、According to the planned annual new installed capacity demand of thermal power, the total construction cost of the kth new thermal power is calculated , and according to the design operation life of the kth thermal power unit and the total construction cost of the kth new thermal power , the annual cost of the kth thermal power unit construction cost is calculated ; S52、According to the planned annual new installed capacity of thermal power, the annual operation and maintenance cost of the kth new thermal power is calculated ; S53, according to the planning year of new thermal power plant installed capacity demand And the average utilization hours of the planning year of thermal power c to solve the k type of new thermal power in the planning year of annual fuel cost ; S54, according to the planning year of new coal-fired power plant installed capacity demand And the average utilization hours of planning year of coal-fired power plant c to solve the k type of new coal-fired power plant in the planning year of carbon emission cost ; S55. Annual construction costs Annual operation and maintenance costs Annual fuel costs and annual carbon emission costs Summing yields the total annual cost for the planned year of the k-th type of newly built thermal power plant. ; S56, the total annual cost , the average utilization hours c of the planned annual thermal power and the planned annual thermal power additional installation demand Solve the degree electricity cost of the kth new thermal power in the planning year ; The method comprises a computer device end, and the computer device end is configured or executes the thermal power type optimization method according to any one of claims 1 to 9.

6. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 5, characterized by, The annual construction cost of the k-th type of thermal power unit in S51 The formula for calculation is: ； wherein r is the interest rate; The annual operation and maintenance cost of the kth new thermal power plant in S52 The calculation formula is: ； wherein, is the planned annual operation and maintenance cost of the kth type of thermal power unit.

7. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 6, characterized by, The fuel cost of the kth new thermal power plant in S53 in the planning year The calculation formula is: ； wherein, is the fuel consumption per degree of electricity for the first type of thermal power, is the unit fuel price for the first type of thermal power; The annual carbon emission cost of the kth new thermal power plant in S54 in the planning year The calculation formula is: ； wherein, is the carbon emission coefficient corresponding to the kth type of thermal power fuel, is the planning year carbon emission price.

8. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 7, characterized by, The total annual cost sum of the kth new thermal power in the S55 in the planning year The calculation formula is: 。 9. The preferred method of thermal power plant type adaptation to new power system according to claim 8, characterized by, The cost per kilowatt-hour of newly built thermal power plants of type k in S56 during the planning year. The formula for calculation is: 。 10. A thermal power type preferred system adapted to a new power system, characterized by, ​

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