Argillaceous ecological restoration coastline resource asset transaction evaluation method and system, and medium

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of ocean planning, and particularly relates to an argillaceous ecological restoration coastline resource asset transaction evaluation method and system and a medium. The evaluation method comprises the following steps: calculating basic unit cost of an ecological restoration coastline; determining a supply and demand adjustment coefficient of the muddy ecological restoration coastline; determining a market premium coefficient; and evaluating according to a transaction evaluation model constructed by a product of the basic unit cost of the ecological restoration coastline, the supply and demand adjustment coefficient of the argillaceous ecological restoration coastline and the market premium coefficient to obtain the argillaceous ecological restoration coastline resource asset transaction unit price. According to the method, a basic cost calculation mode and a supply and demand adjustment mode are constructed by integrating a coastline engineering recovery value, a coastline ecological compensation value, a coastline subsequent maintenance cost, resource scarcity, a market supply and demand relationship and the like; and an ecological restoration coastline evaluation model which considers engineering cost and ecological compensation and can perform cross-regional price comparison is formed, so that the evaluation accuracy is effectively improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of marine planning technology, specifically relating to a method, system, and medium for valuing coastal resource assets for muddy ecological restoration. Background Technology

[0002] Muddy ecological restoration coastlines, unlike other natural resources, lack independent existence and must rely on adjacent land and sea areas. At the same time, their specific habitat and scarcity distinguish them from ordinary sea areas. Price assessment of ecologically restored coastlines is a core element of marine ecological protection compensation and market-based transactions. Currently, the main methods used are the cost approach and market comparison approach for traditional construction land or general marine engineering projects, relying on the subjective adjustments made by the assessors' experience.

[0003] There is currently no established valuation standard for trading muddy ecological restoration coastlines. The existing standards only focus on the calculation of engineering costs. The current "Technical Guidelines for Marine Area Use Demonstration" and "Budget Quota for Coastline Restoration Projects" only calculate the "direct costs of engineering" (bank protection structure, seedlings, and earthwork), and do not incorporate the unique ecological service value of muddy ecological restoration coastlines, such as "carbon sink increment, biodiversity enhancement, and storm buffering," into the pricing model, resulting in distorted price signals.

[0004] In addition, existing estimation methods are not comparable across regions and cannot be applied to cross-regional transactions of ecological restoration coastline indicators. The investment per unit area of ​​different habitats such as mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass beds, and sandy beaches varies by as much as 5 to 30 times, resulting in the inability to balance occupation and compensation and to compare prices across regions. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Based on the aforementioned shortcomings and deficiencies in the existing technology, one of the objectives of this invention is to at least solve one or more of the aforementioned problems in the existing technology. In other words, one of the objectives of this invention is to provide a method, system, and medium for valuing coastal resource assets for muddy ecological restoration that meets one or more of the aforementioned needs.

[0006] To achieve the above-mentioned objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: A valuation method for coastal resource assets undergoing muddy ecological restoration includes: Calculate the basic unit cost of ecological restoration of coastlines; Determine the supply and demand regulation coefficient for muddy ecological restoration of the coastline; Determine the market premium coefficient; The valuation model is constructed by multiplying the basic unit cost of ecologically restored coastline, the supply and demand adjustment coefficient of muddy ecologically restored coastline, and the market premium coefficient to obtain the unit price of muddy ecologically restored coastline resource assets.

[0007] As a preferred option, the basic unit cost C of the ecological restoration coastline is: ; in, Fees are charged for the acquisition of sea areas within 100 meters seaward on the coastline of a unit length of muddy ecological restoration. Cost of restoring a unit length of coastline. Cost of maintenance and cultivation per unit length of coastline. The ecological function value-added fee per unit length of coastline.

[0008] As a preferred embodiment, the The calculation method is as follows: ; in, The price per hectare of sea area on the seaward side of the coastline for muddy ecological restoration.

[0009] As a preferred embodiment, the The calculation method is as follows: ; in, Cost per unit length of seawall ecological restoration Cost per unit length of mudflat restoration Cost per unit length of mangrove planting.

[0010] As a preferred embodiment, the The calculation method is as follows: ; Where Y represents the transaction period in years, and β represents 5% to 10%.

[0011] As a preferred embodiment, the The calculation method is as follows: ; in, To replace the net revenue per unit length of the industry, The net revenue per unit length of the restored coastline has been realized through industrial activities.

[0012] As a preferred embodiment, the process for determining the supply and demand regulation coefficient of the muddy ecological restoration coastline includes: Calculate the supply and demand ratio for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines for: ; in, This represents the length of natural coastline restored last year. The additional length of natural coastline to be occupied in the following year; according to Determine the supply-demand regulation coefficient (SDR) for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines: .

[0013] As a preferred embodiment, the process for determining the market premium coefficient includes: judge Is it less than 0.2? If yes, the market premium coefficient is 1.5; if no, the market premium coefficient is 1.

[0014] This invention also provides a valuation system for the transaction of muddy ecological restoration coastline resource assets, applying the valuation method described in any of the preceding solutions, wherein the valuation system includes: The calculation module is used to calculate the basic unit cost of ecological restoration of the coastline; The module is used to determine the supply and demand adjustment coefficient and market premium coefficient for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines. The valuation module is used to value the transaction based on a transaction valuation model constructed by multiplying the basic unit cost of the ecologically restored coastline, the supply and demand adjustment coefficient of the muddy ecologically restored coastline, and the market premium coefficient, and obtain the unit price of the muddy ecologically restored coastline resource assets.

[0015] The present invention also provides a medium storing instructions that, when executed on a computer, cause the computer to perform the valuation method as described in any of the preceding embodiments.

[0016] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of this invention are: This invention constructs a basic cost calculation method and a supply and demand adjustment method by comprehensively considering the value of coastline engineering restoration, the value of coastline ecological compensation, the subsequent maintenance cost of coastline, resource scarcity, and market supply and demand. It forms an ecological restoration coastline valuation model that considers both engineering costs and ecological compensation and allows for cross-regional price comparison. This effectively improves the accuracy of valuation, provides technical support for the formation of a trading price mechanism for natural coastline indicators, promotes the development of coastline assetization, and drives better protection and management of coastline resources. Attached Figure Description

[0017] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the valuation method for coastal resource assets transaction in muddy ecological restoration according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 2 This is a module architecture diagram of the muddy ecological restoration coastline resource asset transaction valuation system of Embodiment 1 of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0018] To more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention, specific implementation methods will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the drawings described below are merely some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings and other implementation methods can be obtained based on these drawings without any creative effort.

[0019] Example 1: Existing conventional asset transaction valuation methods include: market comparison approach, income capitalization approach, hypothetical development approach, cost approach, benchmark price adjustment approach, and residual approach. Among them, the market comparison approach is suitable for coastline valuation where there are sufficient and comparable transaction cases in the appraised object or adjacent areas; the income capitalization approach is suitable for situations where normal actual income has been obtained or there is objective potential income in the future, and the future income and risks can be accurately predicted and quantified, but it is not suitable for coastline valuation where there are no income projects or income cannot be calculated; the hypothetical development approach is suitable for coastline valuation with investment and development or development potential; the cost approach is suitable for situations where the coastline transaction market is underdeveloped and there is a lack of similar transaction cases; the benchmark price adjustment approach is suitable for coastline valuation with existing benchmark prices; and the residual approach is suitable for coastline price valuation for development for specific purposes or special value-added business models.

[0020] The transaction of muddy ecological restoration coastlines is still in its infancy. The main purpose of muddy ecological restoration coastlines is to protect their ecological value. There are no planned development projects, and the revenue and potential revenue are difficult to determine. There is also no unified benchmark price. Therefore, the market comparison approach, income capitalization approach, hypothetical development approach, benchmark price adjustment approach, and residual approach are not applicable to their valuation. Only the cost approach can be used to value muddy ecological restoration coastline resource assets, and will be used to compare and evaluate the accuracy of the valuation in the future.

[0021] This embodiment constructs an evaluation system based on the basic unit cost of ecological restoration of the coastline, supply and demand, and ecological regulation. This system includes the cost of acquiring the sea area within the strict protection scope of the coastline, the cost of coastline restoration, the cost of ecological maintenance, the supply and demand regulation coefficient, and the market premium coefficient, so as to achieve reasonable calculation of the cross-regional transaction price of the ecological restoration coastline index.

[0022] like Figure 1 As shown in this embodiment, the valuation method for coastal resource assets related to muddy ecological restoration includes the following steps: (1) Calculate the basic unit cost C for ecological restoration of the coastline; Specifically, the basic unit cost C of the ecological restoration coastline in this embodiment is: ; in, Fees are charged for the acquisition of sea areas within 100 meters seaward on the coastline of a unit length of muddy ecological restoration. Cost of restoring a unit length of coastline. Cost of post-construction maintenance and cultivation per unit length of coastline. The ecological function value-added fee per unit length of coastline; Fees for obtaining sea area within 100 meters seaward side of the aforementioned unit length of muddy ecological restoration coastline. The calculation method is as follows: ; in, The price per hectare of sea area on the seaward side of the coastline for muddy ecological restoration.

[0023] The above-mentioned cost of restoring coastline per unit length The calculation method is as follows: ; in, Cost per unit length of seawall ecological restoration Cost per unit length of mudflat restoration Cost per unit length of mangrove planting.

[0024] The above-mentioned cost of coastline maintenance and cultivation per unit length The calculation method is as follows: ; Where Y is the transaction period in years; β is 5% to 10%, and for example, it can be 8%; The above-mentioned ecological function value-added fee per unit length of coastline The calculation method is as follows: ; in, To replace the net revenue per unit length of the industry, The net revenue per unit length of the restored coastline has been realized through industrial activities. Specifically, the net revenue per unit length of the aforementioned alternative industries refers to the revenue value of the ecological services provided by the coastline that are converted into alternative industries in the market (for example, the value of carbon sequestration and oxygen release from coastal mudflats is equivalent to the market price of the same weight of carbon dioxide and oxygen); the net revenue per unit length of the restored coastline that has been realized refers to the revenue that has been realized from the ecological services provided by the coastline (for example, the value of fishery supply has been realized in the form of revenue from fishery products).

[0025] (2) Determine the supply and demand regulation coefficient (SDR) for muddy ecological restoration of the coastline; Specifically, the process for determining the supply and demand regulation coefficient of the muddy ecological restoration coastline in this embodiment includes: Calculate the supply and demand ratio for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines for: ; in, This represents the length of natural coastline restored last year. The additional length of natural coastline to be occupied in the following year; according to Determine the supply-demand regulation coefficient (SDR) for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines: .

[0026] (3) Determine the market premium coefficient Er; Specifically, the process for determining the market premium coefficient Er in this embodiment includes: judge Is it less than 0.2? If no, it means that the supply and demand relationship is not tight, and the market premium coefficient Er is 1; if yes, it means that the supply and demand relationship is tight, and the market premium coefficient Er is increased to 1.5.

[0027] (4) Valuation is carried out based on the product of the basic unit cost of ecological restoration coastline, the supply and demand adjustment coefficient of mud ecological restoration coastline and the market premium coefficient, and the unit price of mud ecological restoration coastline resource assets is obtained. Specifically, the unit price P (unit: yuan / meter) for the transaction of muddy ecological restoration coastline resource assets in this embodiment is: .

[0028] Based on the aforementioned valuation method for muddy ecological restoration coastline resource assets, this embodiment provides a corresponding valuation system for muddy ecological restoration coastline resource assets, such as... Figure 2 As shown, it includes the following functional modules: calculation module, determination module, and valuation module; The above-mentioned calculation module in this embodiment is used to calculate the basic unit cost of ecological restoration coastline; the above-mentioned determination module is used to determine the supply and demand adjustment coefficient and market premium coefficient of muddy ecological restoration coastline; the above-mentioned valuation module is used to value the transaction based on the transaction valuation model constructed by the product of the basic unit cost of ecological restoration coastline, the supply and demand adjustment coefficient of muddy ecological restoration coastline and the market premium coefficient, and obtain the transaction unit price of muddy ecological restoration coastline resource assets. The specific processing procedures for the above-mentioned functional modules can be found in the detailed description of the above-mentioned valuation method for coastal resource assets of muddy ecological restoration, and will not be repeated here.

[0029] The computer-readable storage medium of this embodiment stores instructions that, when executed on a computer, cause the computer to perform the above-described valuation method, thereby achieving intelligent valuation.

[0030] Comparative Example 1: The difference between the valuation method for the muddy ecological restoration coastline resource asset transaction in this comparative example and Example 1 is that it adopts the cost approximation method, using the sum of all costs required to obtain the existing coastline as the main basis, plus a certain development profit and taxes payable to determine the value of the coastline. Specifically, the unit price P for the muddy ecological restoration coastline resource asset transaction is: ; in, To obtain the fee, R1 is development cost, T is tax, R2 is interest, R3 is value-added income, and k is adjustment coefficient.

[0031] The aforementioned cost approximation method only considers the cost of resetting muddy ecological restoration coastlines, without taking into account the ecological product value of the restored coastlines themselves, or the market law of supply and demand imbalance caused by the scarcity of natural coastlines. This would lead to an underestimation of the price of muddy ecological restoration coastlines, far below their true value. Therefore, this invention improves upon the existing method by adding ecological value compensation and supply and demand adjustment coefficients, making the calculated price closer to the true level of the existing coastline.

[0032] To evaluate the accuracy of the valuation methods in Example 1 and Comparative Document 1, a coastline transaction in a certain area was used as an example. The transaction period was 15 years, and the final actual transaction price was 200,000 yuan / meter.

[0033] The valuation method used in Comparative Example 1 was employed to value the coastline of the transaction, specifically as follows: The calculation process is as follows: Acquisition fee =10,600 yuan / meter; Development cost =23,300 yuan / meter; No tax or fee for the first transaction, tax T is 0; Interest R1 = (10,600 + 23,300) * 4.35% = 1,500 yuan / meter; Profit R2 = (10,600 + 23,300 + 1,500) * 6% = 2,100 yuan / meter; Value-added income R3 = (10,600 + 23,300 + 1,500) * 10% = 3,600 yuan / meter; The term is calculated based on the maximum term without correction, and is 1. The estimated price P = (1.06 + 2.33 + 0 + 0.15 + 0.21 + 0.36) * 1 = 41,100 yuan / meter.

[0034] The valuation method described in Example 1 above is used to value the coastline of the transaction, specifically as follows: Fee for obtaining sea area within 100 meters of the seaward side of the coastline for muddy ecological restoration per unit length Cost per unit length of coastline restoration: 10,000 yuan / meter The cost is 23,300 yuan per meter; the cost of coastline maintenance and cultivation per unit length is... =2.33 * 0.08 * 15 = 27,960 yuan / meter; Ecological function enhancement fee per unit length of coastline The cost is 0.23 million yuan per year, with a total value of 0.23 * 15 = 3.45 million yuan per meter; supply and demand ratio for muddy ecological restoration of coastline. The coefficient for supply and demand adjustment of the muddy ecological restoration coastline is 0.5, the SDR coefficient is 2, and the market premium coefficient Er is 1; the final calculated valuation P = (1.06 + 2.33 + 2.796 + 3.45) * 2 * 1 = 192,720 yuan / meter.

[0035] In summary, the average absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the above cost approximation method is 15.89 / 20 = 79.45%, which is relatively large. In contrast, the valuation method of this invention has an average absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.72 / 20 = 3.6%, which significantly improves the accuracy of the valuation.

[0036] The above description is merely a detailed explanation of preferred embodiments and principles of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, there may be changes in specific implementation methods based on the ideas provided by the present invention, and these changes should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for valuing coastal resource assets in muddy ecological restoration, characterized in that, include: Calculate the basic unit cost of ecological restoration of coastlines; Determine the supply and demand regulation coefficient for muddy ecological restoration of the coastline; Determine the market premium coefficient; The valuation model is constructed by multiplying the basic unit cost of ecologically restored coastline, the supply and demand adjustment coefficient of muddy ecologically restored coastline, and the market premium coefficient to obtain the unit price of muddy ecologically restored coastline resource assets.

2. The valuation method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The basic unit cost C for the ecological restoration of the coastline is: ； in, Fees are charged for the acquisition of sea areas within 100 meters seaward on the coastline of a unit length of muddy ecological restoration. Cost of restoring a unit length of coastline. Cost of maintenance and cultivation per unit length of coastline. The ecological function value-added fee per unit length of coastline.

3. The valuation method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The The calculation method is as follows: ； in, The price per hectare of sea area on the seaward side of the coastline for muddy ecological restoration.

4. The valuation method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The The calculation method is as follows: ； in, Cost per unit length of seawall ecological restoration Cost per unit length of mudflat restoration Cost per unit length of mangrove planting.

5. The valuation method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The The calculation method is as follows: ； Where Y represents the transaction period in years, and β represents 5% to 10%.

6. The valuation method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The The calculation method is as follows: ； in, To replace the net revenue per unit length of the industry, The net revenue per unit length of the restored coastline has been realized through industrial activities.

7. The valuation method according to any one of claims 1-6, characterized in that, The process of determining the supply and demand regulation coefficient of the muddy ecological restoration coastline includes: Calculate the supply and demand ratio for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines for: ; in, This represents the length of natural coastline restored last year. The additional length of natural coastline to be occupied in the following year; according to Determine the supply-demand regulation coefficient (SDR) for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines: 。 8. The valuation method according to claim 7, characterized in that, The process of determining the market premium coefficient includes: judge Is it less than 0.2? If yes, the market premium coefficient is 1.5; if no, the market premium coefficient is 1.

9. A valuation system for the transaction of muddy ecological restoration coastline resource assets, employing the valuation method described in any one of claims 1-8, characterized in that, The valuation system includes: The calculation module is used to calculate the basic unit cost of ecological restoration of the coastline; The module is used to determine the supply and demand adjustment coefficient and market premium coefficient for muddy ecological restoration of coastlines. The valuation module is used to value the transaction based on a transaction valuation model constructed by multiplying the basic unit cost of the ecologically restored coastline, the supply and demand adjustment coefficient of the muddy ecologically restored coastline, and the market premium coefficient, and obtain the unit price of the muddy ecologically restored coastline resource assets.

10. A medium storing instructions, characterized in that, When the instructions are executed on a computer, they cause the computer to perform the valuation method as described in any one of claims 1-8.

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