Spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for dredging and maintenance of strongly-deposited deepwater channel at river mouth

Abstract

The invention discloses a space high-precision monthly maintenance quantity prediction method for dredging and maintenance of a strong silting deepwater channel at a river mouth, and the maintenance quantity of the channel refers to the quantity of silt removed after dredged silting silt is loaded into a cabin by a dredger. The method comprises the following steps: 1) dividing longitudinal dredging units of a channel, 2) dividing calculation micro-units in the dredging units, and dividing each channel dredging unit i into Mi micro-units in order to improve the spatial precision of maintenance prediction; (3) dividing transverse sub-zones of the channel, namely dividing the channel back silting into a plurality of sub-zones in the transverse direction, namely in the width direction, in a unit in order to obtain higher-precision back silting amount space distribution; (4) the space high-precision channel maintenance amount is predicted, (5) the early-month actually-measured water depth Hi, j of a calculation micro unit j in a channel dredging unit i is measured, the channel topography of each month is measured, and the measurement time is the starting moment corresponding to each prediction time period; and 6) determining the silting amount proportionality coefficient beta i, k of each sub-zone k in the channel dredging unit i. According to the method, the back-silting dredging and maintenance cost of the deepwater channel is reduced, and the high navigation rate of the channel is guaranteed.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to a method for dredging and maintaining a deep water channel at a river estuary, in particular, the present application relates to a method for predicting the maintenance amount of a deep water channel at a river estuary with strong siltation, more particularly, the present application relates to a method for predicting the spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount of a deep water channel at a river estuary. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND

[0002] The estuary channel is an important traffic measure support for local economy in China. The Yangtze River is the main channel and main skeleton in China's water transport system, and the Yangtze River estuary channel ( Figure 1 ) is the throat of the Yangtze River golden waterway and the only traffic hub connecting the Yangtze River economic belt and China's coastal economic belt and the maritime Silk Road. Ensuring the smoothness of the Yangtze River estuary channel, especially the deep water channel, is related to the overall development of the national economy and the promotion of the traffic power strategy.

[0003] The planning pattern of the Yangtze River estuary channel is "one main channel, two auxiliary channels and one branch"; among them, the "main channel" of the Yangtze River estuary channel with a water depth of 12.5m was connected in 2010, realizing the planning target; the planned target water depth of one of the "auxiliary channels", the South Channel, is 8.0m, and the first phase of the channel regulation project was implemented at the end of 2018, with the construction of a 6.0m channel.

[0004] The Yangtze River estuary deep water channel has large siltation volume and concentrated siltation section ( Figure 2 ), with local siltation intensity reaching more than 10m / year, which is a typical estuary channel with strong siltation, requiring year-round maintenance dredging, producing about 50-70 million cubic meters of dredged soil or mud annually. During the channel maintenance dredging process, the siltation sediment dredged needs to be loaded into the ship cabin and removed. Spatial high-precision prediction of monthly maintenance volume of the channel can provide important support for fine arrangement of dredging construction, thereby reducing the cost of deep water channel siltation dredging and maintenance, ensuring high channel navigation rate, and also being one of the important factors to determine the safe and stable operation of the channel.

[0005] Here, the channel maintenance volume refers to the volume of siltation sediment that needs to be loaded into the ship cabin and removed by the dredging ship during the channel maintenance dredging process; while the commonly used channel siltation volume refers to the total amount of siltation sediment in the channel that needs to be dredged.

[0006] Including the application number "202010162638.0" of the present inventor, the application name is "a method for predicting the siltation volume of a deep water channel at a river estuary based on big data", a method for predicting the monthly siltation volume of each channel dredging unit is proposed.

[0007] However, so far, there is no method for predicting the monthly maintenance amount of the deepwater channel of the estuary, which is a method for predicting the monthly siltation amount of each channel dredging unit for the deepwater channel dredging of the estuary, but the method is a method for predicting the siltation amount in the channel that needs to be dredged, not a method for predicting the monthly maintenance amount of the channel, i.e., a method for predicting the volume of silted sediment that needs to be removed by loading it into the cabin of the dredging ship during the maintenance dredging of the channel.

[0008] In particular, so far, there is no method for predicting the monthly maintenance amount of the channel, i.e., a method for predicting the volume of silted sediment that needs to be removed by loading it into the cabin of the dredging ship during the maintenance dredging of the channel.

[0009] To solve the above problems, the purpose of the present application is to provide a high-precision distribution of the monthly maintenance amount of the deepwater channel dredging and maintenance of the estuary along the channel dredging unit, and a total amount, which provides scientific guidance for the reasonable arrangement of channel maintenance dredging construction, low cost, high efficiency and high channel navigation rate.

[0010] The monthly maintenance amount of the deepwater channel refers to the volume of silted sediment that needs to be removed by loading it into the cabin of the dredging ship during the maintenance dredging of the channel.

[0011] For the deepwater channel of the estuary, the monthly maintenance dredging plan and arrangement of the channel needs to be determined in advance.

[0012] Here, the monthly refers to a time span of about one month used in predicting, statistical channel maintenance amount, siltation amount, etc. in channel maintenance management.

[0013] Here, the monthly is used as the main management period of channel maintenance construction, which is mainly set according to the siltation regularity, the time period of maintenance management ship and construction scheduling arrangement.

[0014] Here, the dredging unit refers to a number of units divided longitudinally for dredging management of the long channel, which can be set according to the requirements of construction ship and management.

[0015] The technical solution of the present application is as follows:

[0016] A method for predicting the spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount of the dredging and maintenance of the deepwater channel of the estuary, the maintenance amount of the dredging and maintenance of the channel refers to the volume of silted sediment that needs to be removed by loading it into the cabin of the dredging ship during the maintenance dredging of the channel; characterized in that the method comprises the following steps:

[0017] 1) Division of channel longitudinal dredging unit

[0018] According to the construction and management needs, the waterway is divided into dredging units in length, and the longitudinal length of the dredging unit is about 1-2km;

[0019] 2) Division of the calculation micro-unit in the dredging unit

[0020] In order to improve the spatial accuracy of the maintenance prediction, each waterway dredging unit i is divided into M i micro-units;

[0021] 3) Division of the waterway transverse zoning

[0022] In order to obtain a higher precision of the siltation amount spatial distribution, the waterway siltation is divided in the unit in the transverse direction, i.e. the width, into multiple sub-zones,

[0023] 4) Spatial high-precision waterway maintenance amount prediction

[0024] The spatial high-precision prediction of the waterway maintenance amount is calculated and provided in multiple calculation micro-units in the waterway dredging unit;

[0025] 5) Measurement of the measured water depth H i,j of the calculation micro-unit j in the waterway dredging unit i at the beginning of the month

[0026] In order to obtain the high-precision waterway maintenance amount of each month, the waterway topography in each month in the waterway dredging unit i needs to be measured, and the measurement time is the starting time corresponding to each prediction period;

[0027] 6) Determination of the siltation amount proportion coefficient β i,k of each sub-zone k in the waterway dredging unit i

[0028] The siltation amount proportion coefficient can reasonably distribute the predicted waterway dredging unit siltation amount to each transverse sub-zone, so as to improve the spatial accuracy of the siltation amount distributed to each calculation micro-unit. This proportion coefficient is calculated by the sub-zone siltation amount calculated and counted according to the sub-zone.

[0029] According to step 2) of the present application, in order to match the spatial prediction accuracy of the maintenance amount with the measured topographic accuracy, the spatial spacing of the calculation micro-unit is set according to the minimum spacing of the actual waterway topographic measurement, so as to improve the prediction accuracy.

[0030] Preferably, taking the Yangtze River estuary as an example: the topographic measurement spacing is about 25m, and the spatial spacing of the calculation micro-unit is set to 25m.

[0031] Here, the micro unit scale is too large, which leads to the decrease of prediction accuracy, and too small, which increases unnecessary calculation and numerical viscosity error caused by interpolation. The application is suitable for the strong siltation channel of the estuary. Taking the deepwater channel of the Yangtze River Estuary as an example, the total length is about 92 km. According to the needs of construction and management, the channel is divided into dredging units in length. The division diagram is shown in Figure 3 , the position distribution and the main unit number are shown in Figure 4 ; the longitudinal length of the dredging unit is about 1-2 km.

[0032] According to step 3) of the application, preferably, taking the deepwater channel of the river estuary as an example, each channel dredging unit is divided into three sub-zones with different areas in the transverse direction.

[0033] The channel transverse zoning helps to capture the difference in the transverse distribution of the siltation amount in the channel dredging unit. The siltation amount predicted based on the applicant's patent "a deepwater channel siltation amount prediction method for river estuary based on big data" can be distributed to different areas in the transverse direction of each dredging unit according to a reasonable proportion coefficient.

[0034] According to step 5) of the application, preferably, if the maintenance amount from July 1 to July 30, 2024 is predicted, the measured water depth of the channel at the beginning of the month is arranged to be measured around June 30: H i,j ; the measurement interval can be set according to the actual needs of the maintenance prediction accuracy. In the deepwater channel of the Yangtze River Estuary, the measurement interval is set to 25-50 m.

[0035] According to the application, the division of the dredging unit is convenient for the statistical management of the ships and data of the strong siltation deepwater channel of the river estuary, and is consistent with the unit division of the channel siltation prediction, which is convenient for directly using the existing siltation calculation data to calculate the required maintenance amount.

[0036] According to the application, the spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for dredging and maintenance of the strong siltation deepwater channel of the river estuary is characterized in that,

[0037] In order to match the spatial prediction accuracy of the maintenance amount with the actual topographic accuracy, the spatial interval of the micro section is set according to the actual topographic measurement interval of the channel.

[0038] Preferably, taking the Yangtze River Estuary as an example: the topographic measurement interval is about 25 m, and the spatial interval of the calculation micro unit is set to 25 m.

[0039] According to the application, the spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for dredging and maintenance of the strong siltation deepwater channel of the river estuary is characterized in that,

[0040] Each channel dredging unit is divided into three sub-zones with different areas in the transverse direction.

[0041] The application discloses a maintenance quantity prediction method for dredging and maintenance of a strong-silting deep-water channel at a river estuary.

[0042] In order to obtain the high-precision channel maintenance quantity of each month at the river estuary, the channel topography of each month needs to be measured, and the measurement time is the starting time corresponding to each prediction period;

[0043] If the maintenance quantity from July 1, 2024 to July 30, 2024 is predicted, the measured water depth of the channel at the beginning of the month is measured around June 30: H i,j The measurement interval can be set according to the actual demand of the maintenance prediction accuracy, and the measurement interval is set to 25-50 m in the Yangtze River estuary deep-water channel.

[0044] The application discloses a spatial high-precision monthly maintenance quantity prediction method for dredging and maintenance of a strong-silting deep-water channel at a river estuary.

[0045] Step 4) The spatial high-precision prediction of the channel maintenance quantity mainly reflects that the channel maintenance quantity can be calculated and provided according to a plurality of calculation micro-units in the channel dredging unit,

[0046] The calculation method is as follows:

[0047] The calculation formula of the predicted maintenance quantity w i，j of each calculation micro-unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the end of the month is as follows:

[0048] w i，j =(h i，j -h s )×Δa i，j (1)

[0049] The calculation formula of the monthly maintenance quantity W i of each channel dredging unit i is as follows:

[0050]

[0051] The calculation formula of the predicted water depth h i，j of each calculation micro-unit in the channel dredging unit i at the end of the month is as follows:

[0052] h i，j =H i，j +ΔH i，j (3)

[0053] The calculation formula of the silting intensity ΔH i，j of the calculation micro-unit j of the channel dredging unit i is as follows:

[0054]

[0055] Here, the monthly siltation amount e in the zonation k in the channel dredging unit i i，k The calculation formula is as follows:

[0056] e i，k = E i × β i，k (5)

[0057] The sum of the zonation proportionality coefficient of the dredging unit i is 1, and the expression is as follows:

[0058]

[0059] Based on the above, the calculation formula of the total monthly maintenance amount prediction value W of the n th month in a year is as follows: n

[0060]

[0061] Wherein:

[0062] i, dredging unit number, i∈1~N,

[0063] N, total number of channel dredging units, units: pieces,

[0064] j, calculation micro-unit number, j∈1~M i ,

[0065] M i , total number of calculation micro-units, units: pieces,

[0066] w i，j , the maintenance amount prediction value of the calculation micro-unit j in the channel dredging unit i, units: m 3 , h s , the channel assessment water depth value, determined according to the actual target water depth of the maintained channel, the Yangtze estuary deepwater channel is 12.5m (different channels can refer to different base standards according to needs, and the water depth of the channel in the Yangtze estuary is unified as the theoretical base), that is, h s = 12.5m, units: m, Δa i，j , the area of the calculation micro-unit j in the channel dredging unit i, units: m 2 , W i , the monthly maintenance amount of the channel dredging unit i, units: m 3 ,

[0067] h i，j , the end-of-month predicted water depth of the calculation micro-unit j in the channel dredging unit i, units: m, (theoretical base in the Yangtze estuary)

[0068] H i，j ​, the measured water depth of the micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the beginning of the month, unit: m, (theoretical base surface in the Yangtze River estuary)

[0069] ΔH i，j , the deposition intensity of the micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i, unit: m,

[0070] e i,k , the monthly back silting amount of the zoned k in the channel dredging unit i, unit: m 3

[0071] k, zoned number in the channel transverse, k∈1~K; K is the number of channel transverse zoning;

[0072] Δa i,k , the area of the zoned k in the channel dredging unit i, unit: m 2 ,

[0073] E i , the back silting amount of the channel dredging unit i (obtained by the patent "a method for predicting the back silting amount of the deep water channel at the river estuary based on big data", application number: 202010162638.0, to calculate and obtain), unit: m, β i，k , the back silting amount proportion coefficient of the zoned k in the channel dredging unit i, which is calculated by the measured data.

[0074] W n , the total amount of monthly maintenance of the whole channel predicted each month, unit: m 3 ; n is the month corresponding to the predicted channel maintenance amount.

[0075] According to the spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for dredging and maintenance of the strong silting deep water channel at the river estuary, characterized in that,

[0076] The back silting amount proportion coefficient can reasonably distribute the predicted channel dredging unit back silting amount to each transverse zoning to improve the spatial precision of the distributed back silting amount on each calculation micro unit; this proportion coefficient can be calculated by the zoned back silting amount calculated and counted according to the zoning.

[0077] According to the spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for dredging and maintenance of the strong silting deep water channel at the river estuary, characterized in that,

[0078] The zoned back silting amount is the maintenance amount in the zoning plus the square amount of the previous and next two times; unit: m 3 .

[0079] According to the spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for dredging and maintenance of the strong silting deep water channel at the river estuary, characterized in that,

[0080] The strip siltation amount is the maintenance amount in the strip plus the strip amount of the two times of surveying, where the strip amount of the two times of surveying refers to the siltation amount of the second time of surveying minus the siltation amount of the first time of surveying according to the two times of topographic surveying, and the unit is m 3 .

[0081] Advantages of the present application

[0082] Through the spatial high-precision prediction of the monthly maintenance amount of the channel, important support can be provided for the fine arrangement of dredging construction, thereby reducing the siltation dredging and maintenance cost of the deepwater channel, ensuring the high channel navigation rate, and ensuring the safe and stable operation of the channel. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0083] Figure 1 Fig. 1 is a topographic map of the location and surrounding area of the 12.5m deepwater channel in the Yangtze River estuary (2016).

[0084] Figure 2 Fig. 3 is a siltation amount distribution map of each dredging unit in the deepwater channel in the Yangtze River estuary (2012).

[0085] Figure 3 Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the division of the channel dredging unit.

[0086] Figure 4 Fig. 5 is a layout of the location and main unit number of the deepwater channel dredging unit in the Yangtze River estuary.

[0087] Figure 5 Fig. 6 is a layout of the channel dredging unit, calculation micro-unit and channel strip.

[0088] Figure 6 Fig. 7 is a flow chart of the prediction calculation.

[0089] Figure 7 Fig. 8 is a schematic diagram of the channel maintenance amount calculation section.

[0090] Figure 8 Fig. 9 is a high-precision maintenance intensity distribution map of the prediction. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0091] Embodiment

[0092] A maintenance amount prediction method for dredging and maintenance of a strong siltation deepwater channel in a river estuary, the method comprising the following steps:

[0093] 1) Division of channel longitudinal dredging unit

[0094] According to the needs of construction and management, the channel is divided into dredging units in length, and the longitudinal length of the dredging unit is about 1-2km;

[0095] 2) Division of calculation micro-unit in the dredging unit

[0096] Here, the zoned siltation amount is the maintenance amount in the zone plus the siltation amount before and after the surveying; wherein the siltation amount is the siltation amount obtained by surveying on both sides of the statistical period, unit: m 3 .

[0097] In order to improve the spatial accuracy of the maintenance prediction, each channel dredging unit i is divided into M i micro units, and the arrangement of the calculation micro units in the dredging unit is shown in Figure 5 .

[0098] In order to match the spatial prediction accuracy of the maintenance amount with the actual topographic survey accuracy, the spatial interval of the calculation micro section is set according to the minimum interval of the actual channel topographic survey. For example, in the Yangtze River estuary, the topographic survey interval is about 25 m, and the spatial interval of the calculation micro unit is set to 25 m.

[0099] (3) Channel transverse zoning method

[0100] In order to obtain a higher precision of the siltation amount spatial distribution, the channel siltation in the unit is divided into three zones in the transverse direction, and the transverse zoning is shown in Figure 5 .

[0101] For example, in the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel, each channel dredging unit is divided into three zones with different areas in the transverse direction.

[0102] Channel transverse zoning helps to capture the difference in the transverse distribution of the siltation amount in the channel dredging unit, and the predicted siltation amount based on the patent "A deepwater channel siltation amount prediction method for river estuary based on big data" of the applicant can be distributed to different areas in the transverse direction of each dredging unit according to a reasonable proportionality coefficient.

[0103] (4) Spatial high-precision channel maintenance amount prediction method

[0104] The spatial high-precision prediction of the channel maintenance amount mainly reflects that it can be calculated and provided according to the multiple calculation micro units in the channel dredging unit. The main calculation method is as follows:

[0105] The predicted value w i of the maintenance amount of each calculation micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the end of the month

[0106] w i，j = (h i，j -h s ) x Δa i，j (1)

[0107] Here, the calculation formula of the monthly maintenance amount W i of each channel dredging unit i is as follows:

[0108]

[0109] Here, the predicted water depth h of each computational micro-unit within the channel dredging unit i at the end of the month... i，j The calculation formula is as follows:

[0110] h i，j =H i，j +ΔH i，j (3)

[0111] Here, channel dredging unit i calculates the siltation intensity ΔH of micro-unit j. i，j The calculation formula is as follows:

[0112]

[0113] Here, the monthly siltation volume e within zone k of channel dredging unit i is... i，k The calculation formula is as follows:

[0114] e i，k =E i ×β i，k (5)

[0115] The sum of the proportion coefficients of each zone in dredging unit i is 1, as expressed below:

[0116]

[0117] Based on the above, the predicted monthly maintenance volume W for the entire waterway in the nth month of the year is as follows. n The calculation formula is as follows:

[0118]

[0119] in:

[0120] i, the dredging unit number, i∈1~N

[0121] N, total number of channel dredging units, unit: units.

[0122] j, calculate the micro-unit number, j∈1~M i

[0123] M i Calculate the total number of micro-units, unit: units.

[0124] w i，j , where represents the predicted maintenance quantity of micro-unit j within channel dredging unit i, in meters. 3 h s, the water depth of the Yangtze River estuary deep water channel is 12.5m (different channels can refer to different base standards according to needs, and the water depth of the channel in the Yangtze River estuary is unified as a theoretical base), that is, h s = 12.5m, unit: m, Δa i , j, the area of the calculation micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i, with the unit of: m 2 , W i , the monthly maintenance amount of the channel dredging unit i, with the unit of: m 3 ,

[0125] h i，j , the predicted water depth of the calculation micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the end of the month, with the unit of: m, (the theoretical base in the Yangtze River estuary)

[0126] H i，j , the measured water depth of the calculation micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the beginning of the month, with the unit of: m, (the theoretical base in the Yangtze River estuary)

[0127] ΔH i , j, the deposition intensity of the calculation micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i, with the unit of: m,

[0128] e i,k , the monthly back silting amount of the subzone k in the channel dredging unit i, with the unit of: m 3 , k, the horizontal subzone number, k ∈ 1 ~ K; K is the number of horizontal subzones of the channel;

[0129] Δa i , k, the area of the subzone k in the channel dredging unit i, with the unit of: m 2 ,

[0130] E i , the back silting amount of the channel dredging unit i (obtained by calculating the patent "a method for predicting the back silting amount of the deep water channel at the river estuary based on big data", application number: 202010162638.0), with the unit of: m, β i，k , the back silting amount proportion coefficient of the subzone k in the channel dredging unit i, which is calculated by measured data.

[0131] W n , the total amount of monthly maintenance of the whole channel predicted each month, with the unit of: m 3 ; n is the month corresponding to the predicted channel maintenance amount.

[0132] (5) The measurement method of the measured water depth H i，j of the calculation micro unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the beginning of the month

[0133] In order to obtain the high-precision channel maintenance amount of each month, the channel terrain of each month needs to be measured, and the measurement time is the starting time corresponding to each prediction period; for example, if the maintenance amount of July 1, 2024 to July 30, 2024 is predicted, the measurement value of the water depth of the channel at the beginning of the month is arranged to be completed around June 30: H i,j ; the measurement interval can be set according to the actual demand of the maintenance prediction accuracy, and the measurement interval is set to 25-50m in the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel.

[0134] (6) The determination method of the back silting amount proportion coefficient β of each subzone k in the channel dredging unit i i,k

[0135] The back silting amount proportion coefficient can reasonably distribute the predicted channel dredging unit back silting amount to each horizontal subzone, so as to improve the spatial accuracy of the distributed back silting amount on each calculation micro unit; this proportion coefficient can be calculated by the subzone back silting amount calculated and counted according to the subzone.

[0136] Here, the subzone back silting amount is the maintenance amount in the subzone plus the surveying square amount before and after; wherein the surveying square amount is the siltation amount counted on the surveying map before and after the statistical period, unit: m 3 .

[0137] Taking the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel as an example, the maintenance amount and the surveying square amount of each channel dredging unit horizontal subzone (k=1-3) of each dredging unit (i=1-N, N=46) from 2020 to 2022 are taken, the back silting amount on each unit and each subzone is calculated, and the back silting amount proportion coefficient β of each subzone k in each channel dredging unit i is counted. i,k As shown in Table 1 below.

[0138] Table 1 back silting amount proportion coefficient β of subzone k in channel dredging unit i of Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel i,k Statistical table

[0139]

[0140]

[0141] Prediction result

[0142] Taking the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel as an example: based on the above method, the high-precision maintenance amount distribution of the middle section of the channel in July 2024 can be predicted, and the prediction result of the maintenance intensity is shown in Figure 7 .

[0143] As can be seen from the figure, the local maintenance intensity of the middle section of the channel in July 2024 can reach more than 1.5m / month, and the maintenance concentrated section is mainly concentrated in the channel maintenance unit L (L is Figure 8 ​The north side of the channel dredging unit, the south side of the maintenance unit M~N and the whole slot of the maintenance O unit.

[0144] Before the present application, the maintenance construction of the channel is generally guided by the siltation amount, but the actual water depth of the channel is different, and the maintenance dredging construction is mainly based on the examination water depth as the main reference, therefore, the siltation amount cannot completely reflect the actual required dredging amount; in addition, the prediction space precision of the siltation amount often depends on the grid precision of the prediction model, and the grid size significantly affects the calculation efficiency and the stability of the calculation model, thus limiting it from using very small grid and very high spatial precision.

[0145] The present application proposes a calculation micro unit capable of effectively improving the spatial precision to predict the water depth of the channel, and determines the spatial high-precision maintenance amount based on the same, the method overcomes the shortcomings of the previous siltation amount guiding the maintenance amount, and also makes up for the spatial precision deficiency of the traditional method.

[0146] Taking the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel as an example, since January 2022, the application of the present application has made the deepwater channel standard navigation guarantee rate reach 100%, and the spatial high-precision maintenance amount prediction has played a positive role in reducing the waste of dredging construction capacity and the standard of channel maintenance water depth, and has brought obvious economic and management benefits.

[0147] At present, the management method based on the present application has been completely integrated into the dredging and maintenance management of the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel, and continues to play a significant role.

[0148] According to the present application, the high-precision distribution of the monthly maintenance amount of the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel with strong siltation along the channel dredging unit and the total amount are provided, which provides scientific guidance for the reasonable arrangement of channel maintenance dredging construction, low cost, high efficiency and high channel navigation rate.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the monthly maintenance amount of high-precision space for dredging and maintaining the deep-water channel of a river estuary with strong siltation, wherein the maintenance amount of dredging and maintaining the channel refers to the amount of silted sediment removed by a dredging ship after loading the dredged sediment into the ship cabin during channel maintenance dredging; characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: 1) division of the channel longitudinal dredging unit According to the needs of construction and management, the channel is divided into dredging units in length, and the longitudinal length of the dredging unit is about 1-2 km; 2) division of the calculation micro-unit in the dredging unit In order to improve the spatial accuracy of the maintenance prediction, each channel dredging unit i is divided into M i micro units; 3) division of the channel transverse zoning In order to obtain the spatial distribution of the high-precision siltation amount, the channel siltation is divided in the transverse direction, i.e. the width, into multiple sub-zones, 4) spatial high-precision channel maintenance amount prediction The spatial high-precision prediction of the channel maintenance amount can be calculated and provided according to the multiple calculation micro-units in the channel dredging unit; 5) Calculating the measured water depth H at the beginning of the month for the microcell j within the channel dredging unit i i,j of the measurement In order to obtain the high-precision channel maintenance amount of each month, the channel topography of each month in the channel dredging unit i needs to be measured, and the measurement time is the starting time corresponding to each prediction period; 6) the coefficient β of the proportion of the amount of backfill in each zone k in the channel dredging unit i i,k determination The siltation amount proportion coefficient can reasonably distribute the predicted channel dredging unit siltation amount to each transverse sub-zone, so as to improve the spatial precision of the siltation amount distributed on each calculation micro-unit; This proportion coefficient is calculated by the sub-zone siltation amount calculated and counted according to the sub-zone.

2. The spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for strong siltation deepwater channel dredging and maintenance in estuary and river mouth according to claim 1, characterized in that In order to match the spatial prediction precision of the maintenance amount with the precision of the measured topography, the spatial interval of the calculation micro-unit is set according to the minimum interval of the actual channel topography measurement to improve the prediction precision. When the minimum interval of the topography measurement is about 25 m, the spatial interval of the calculation micro-unit can be set to 25 m. Taking the Yangtze River estuary as an example, the topography measurement interval is about 25 m, and the spatial interval of the calculation micro-unit is set to 25 m.

3. The spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for strong siltation deepwater channel dredging and maintenance in estuary and river mouth according to claim 1, characterized in that Each channel dredging unit is divided into three sub-zones with different areas in the transverse direction.

4. The spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for strong siltation deepwater channel dredging and maintenance in estuary and river mouth according to claim 1, characterized in that In order to obtain the high-precision channel maintenance amount of each month, the channel topography of each month needs to be measured, and the measurement time is the starting time corresponding to each prediction period.

5. The spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for strong siltation deepwater channel dredging and maintenance in estuary and river mouth according to claim 1, characterized in that The spatial high-precision prediction of the channel maintenance amount mainly reflects that it can be calculated and provided according to the multiple calculation micro-units in the channel dredging unit, and its main calculation method is as follows: Maintenance quantity prediction value w of each calculation micro unit j in the end of month channel dredging unit i i,j The calculation formula is as follows: w i,j = (h i,j -h s ) x Δa i,j (1) Here, the monthly maintenance amount W of each fairway dredging unit i i is calculated as follows: Here, the predicted water depth h of each calculation microelement in the channel dredging unit i at the end of the month ,j is calculated by the following equation: h i,j = H i,j + ΔH i,j (3) Here, the channel dredging unit i calculates the deposition intensity ΔH of the micro unit j i,j The calculation formula is as follows: Here, the monthly resuspension amount e in the zone k in the channel dredging unit i i,k is calculated by the following formula. e i,k = E i x β i,k (4) The sum of the sub-zone proportion coefficients of the dredging unit i is 1, and the expression is as follows: Based on the above, the total monthly maintenance amount prediction value W of the nth month in the year n The calculation formula is as follows: wherein: i, dredging unit number, i∈1~N, N, total number of channel dredging units, unit: pieces, j, calculate micro-unit number, j e 1 ~ M i , M i , the total number of micro-cells is calculated, unit: pieces, w i,j Maintenance quantity prediction value of micro-unit j in channel dredging unit i, unit: m 3 , h s For the water depth value of the channel, the actual target water depth of the maintained channel is determined, and the water depth of the Yangtze River estuary deepwater channel is 12.5 m (different channels can refer to different base standards according to needs, and the water depth of the channel in the Yangtze River estuary is unified as a theoretical base), that is, h s = 12.5 m, unit: m, Δa i,j Area of microcell j within the channel dredging unit i, in m2 2 , W i M monthly maintenance amount for the channel dredging unit i, in m 3 , h i,j To calculate the predicted water depth of the micro-unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the end of the month, the unit is: m (theoretical base surface in the Yangtze estuary), H i,j To calculate the measured water depth of the micro-unit j in the channel dredging unit i at the beginning of the month, the unit is: m (the theoretical base surface of the Yangtze estuary), ΔH i,j is the calculated accretion strength of the microcell j within the channel dredging unit i, in m. e i,k S(k, i) is the monthly siltation amount of the channel dredging unit i in the zone k, unit: m 3 k is the number of the channel transverse zoning, k ∈ 1 ~ K; K is the number of channel transverse zoning Δa i,k Aki, area of the strip k in the channel dredging unit i, in m2 2 , E i , the back silting amount of the channel dredging unit i (calculated and obtained by the application patent "A back silting amount prediction method for deep water channel at river estuary based on big data", application number: 202010162638.0), unit: m; β i,k β is the coefficient of the proportion of the back silting in the zonal k of the channel dredging unit i, which is calculated by the measured data; W n , the total amount of monthly maintenance of the entire channel predicted by each month, unit: m 3 ; n is the month corresponding to the predicted amount of channel maintenance.

6. The spatial high-precision monthly maintenance amount prediction method for strong siltation deepwater channel dredging and maintenance in estuary and river mouth according to claim 1, characterized in that The siltation amount proportion coefficient can reasonably distribute the predicted channel dredging unit siltation amount to each transverse sub-zone, so as to improve the spatial precision of the siltation amount distributed on each calculation micro-unit; This proportion coefficient is calculated by the existing statistical data of the sedimentation amount in the strip.

7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the method is characterized in that, The amount of sedimentation in the strip is the amount of maintenance in the strip plus the amount of square footage measured before and after mapping; unit: m 3 .

8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the method is characterized in that, The amount of sedimentation in the strip is the amount of maintenance in the strip plus the amount of sedimentation in the front and back two times of surveying, where the amount of surveying refers to the amount of sedimentation in the back surveying minus the amount of sedimentation in the front surveying according to the front and back two times of topographic surveying, and the unit is m. 3 .

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