Ice lake breaching disaster chain grading monitoring method based on disaster process

Abstract

The application provides a kind of ice lake breaching type disaster chain grading monitoring method based on disaster process, comprising the following steps: 1. Obtain remote sensing image data of the target ice lake, identify and divide the ice lake type based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relationship of the target ice lake. 2. Based on geographic information system data, evaluate the traffic accessibility level of the area where the target ice lake is located. 3. According to the target ice lake type identified in step 1 and the traffic accessibility level of the target ice lake evaluated in step 2, call the monitoring scheme matched from the pre-set scheme library. 4. Execute the monitoring scheme in step 3, obtain multi-source monitoring data, perform fusion analysis, and output the breaching risk level and warning information based on the analysis result. The application realizes the optimal configuration of monitoring resources and the effective perception of the whole process of disaster chain through classification, zoning and coordination mechanism.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of geological disaster monitoring technology, and in particular relates to a hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process. Background Technology

[0002] Glacial lake outbursts are a typical major geological disaster in high-altitude mountainous areas worldwide. The disaster process involves the rapid and instantaneous release of water from a reservoir, creating a high-energy flood that erodes loose material in downstream channels, forming debris flows that pose a serious threat to downstream settlements and infrastructure. Based on their formation, glacial lakes can be mainly classified into moraine-blocked lakes, glacial-blocked lakes, surface lakes, subglacial lakes, and valley lakes.

[0003] In recent years, due to the continued impact of global climate change, the number and area of ​​glacial lakes in high-altitude mountainous areas have increased, and glacial lake outburst events have become more frequent, causing not only serious casualties and ecological damage but also huge economic losses. This phenomenon exposes significant deficiencies in the current monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control capabilities for glacial lake outburst events, as well as the lagging development and weak response capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation systems in downstream areas.

[0004] Existing statistics and research on glacial outburst floods indicate that moraine-blocked lakes, glacier-blocked lakes, and surface glaciers are the most vulnerable types of glacial lakes. Because the development and evolution of glacial lakes is a relatively long process, and glacial lakes are generally at high altitudes and a certain spatial distance from downstream disaster-bearing bodies, monitoring glacial lakes is a crucial means of effectively managing the risk of glacial outburst floods and reducing casualties and property damage. Current monitoring schemes mainly have the following limitations:

[0005] (1) Homogeneous monitoring strategies. Existing schemes usually do not distinguish the fundamental differences in the causes and outburst mechanisms of different types of glacial lakes, such as surface lakes, moraine-blocked lakes and glacier-blocked lakes, and adopt relatively uniform monitoring indicators, resulting in insensitivity to key precursor information and low effectiveness of early warning.

[0006] (2) The deployment lacks economic considerations. In mountainous areas with extremely poor transportation, existing solutions are either too costly to implement or lack timeliness due to reliance on manual inspections. There is a lack of a mechanism to dynamically optimize resource allocation based on implementation conditions.

[0007] (3) Disconnection in disaster chain monitoring. Most schemes only focus on the state of the glacial lake itself and fail to build an integrated monitoring network covering the entire chain from the upstream triggering dynamic zone to the downstream disaster evolution zone, resulting in the inability to effectively perceive the complete development process of the disaster.

[0008] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a monitoring solution that can be intelligently, dynamically, and fully configured based on the inherent risks of the monitored object and the external implementation conditions. Summary of the Invention

[0009] The purpose of this invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the existing technology and provide a hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process.

[0010] The present invention adopts the following technical solution:

[0011] A hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst flood disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process includes:

[0012] Step 1. Identify the type of glacial lake:

[0013] Remote sensing image data of the target glacial lake is acquired. Based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relationships of the target glacial lake, the types of glacial lakes are identified and classified. The types of glacial lakes include at least surface glacial lakes, moraine-blocked lakes, and glacier-blocked lakes.

[0014] Step 2. Accessibility assessment:

[0015] Based on national road information, remote sensing interpretation, and digital elevation models, the accessibility level of the area where the target glacial lake is located is assessed. The accessibility level includes at least four levels: good, moderate, poor, and very poor.

[0016] Step 3. Monitoring solution configuration:

[0017] Based on the target glacial lake type identified in step 1 and the target glacial lake accessibility level assessed in step 2, a matching monitoring scheme is retrieved from the pre-set scheme library.

[0018] Step 4. Data Fusion and Early Warning:

[0019] The monitoring plan in step 3 is executed to obtain multi-source monitoring data, perform fusion analysis, and output the failure risk level and early warning information based on the analysis results.

[0020] Furthermore, the method for assessing the accessibility level in step 2 includes: constructing the accessibility level of the glacier lake based on the influencing indicators affecting its accessibility. The calculation formula is: ;

[0021] in, Accessibility level; For standardized evaluation factors, The weights of each evaluation factor. include and . : The distance from the center line of the ice lake along the river channel to the nearest road along the river channel, in km. The average slope within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, with a default buffer zone length of 500m, in degrees. The overall topographic relief within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline. The default buffer zone is 500m, and the unit is meters. yes The arithmetic mean, The calculation formula is: ;

[0022] Topographic relief within a given analysis grid, measured in meters (m).

[0023] This analysis shows the maximum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0024] This analysis shows the minimum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0025] The default grid size for analysis is 100m×100m.

[0026] : Elevation of the glacial lake, in meters (m).

[0027] Weights of each evaluation factor Determined through expert scoring or analytic hierarchy process.

[0028] Furthermore, and The assignment rules are as follows:

[0029] when When the distance is less than 2km, the value is 1.0; when... For distances greater than or equal to 2km and less than 10km, the value is 0.6; when... For distances greater than or equal to 10km and less than 30km, the value is 0.3; when... When the distance is greater than or equal to 30km, the value is 0.1.

[0030] when When the angle is less than 15°, the value is 1.0. When the angle is greater than or equal to 15° and less than 25°, the value is 0.6; when... When the angle is greater than or equal to 25° and less than 35°, the value is 0.3; when... For slopes greater than or equal to 35°, the value is 0.1. Integer slope thresholds facilitate quick determination of slope ranges and assignment of values ​​in practical work, effectively improving the efficiency of this indicator in glacial lake hazard assessment.

[0031] when When the value is less than 20m, the value is 1.0. For lengths greater than or equal to 20m and less than 50m, the value is 0.6; when... For lengths greater than or equal to 50m and less than 100m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 100m, the value is 0.1.

[0032] when When the value is less than 4000m, the value is 1.0. For distances greater than or equal to 4000m and less than 4500m, the value is 0.6. For distances greater than or equal to 4500m and less than 5000m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 5000m, the value is 0.1.

[0033] Furthermore, the monitoring scheme includes a combination of monitoring elements and technologies for each section of the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the triggering dynamic area, and the downstream evolution area.

[0034] Furthermore, in step 3, the monitoring schemes that match the target glacial lake type and its accessibility level include:

[0035] (1) When the frozen lake surface and accessibility are good, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0036] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing, drones, shallow water ice profilers, ice-water radar, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is also a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorological conditions. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing, weather stations, cameras, and microseismic monitoring instruments. Finally, the monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows. Monitoring methods include mud level gauges or water level gauges, current meters, and cameras.

[0037] (2) When the ice lake surface and accessibility are moderate, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0038] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, monitored using optical remote sensing, drones, glacial water level radar, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorological conditions, monitored using optical remote sensing, weather stations, and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0039] (3) When the lake is frozen and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0040] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, monitored using optical remote sensing, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorological conditions, monitored using optical remote sensing and weather stations. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0041] (4) When the lake is frozen and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0042] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, using optical remote sensing. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the parent glacier dynamics and meteorological conditions, also using optical remote sensing. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, ground acoustic monitors, cameras, and current meters.

[0043] (5) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has good accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0044] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAVs, GNSS displacement gauges, crack gauges, resistivity tomography, piezometers, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. Monitoring methods include weather stations, crack gauges, inclinometers, microseismic monitoring instruments, and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Monitoring methods include mud level gauges or water level gauges, flow velocity meters, and cameras.

[0045] (6) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0046] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing or InSAR, drones, GNSS displacement gauges, piezometers, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. Monitoring methods include weather stations, fissure gauges, microseismic monitoring instruments, and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Monitoring methods include mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0047] (7) When glacial moraine blocks the lake or when accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0048] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage, monitored using optical remote sensing or InSAR, drones, GNSS displacement meters, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall, monitored using meteorological stations and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow, monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0049] (8) When glacial moraine blocks the lake and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0050] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage, monitored using optical remote sensing or InSAR. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall, monitored using optical remote sensing and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow, monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitoring instruments, ground acoustic monitoring instruments, cameras, and current meters.

[0051] (9) When the glacier blocks the lake and accessibility is good, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0052] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, using optical remote sensing, drones, resistivity tomography, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial undulation and ice seismic activity, using InSAR, GNSS displacement gauges, and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding, using current meters, sediment gauges or water level gauges, and cameras.

[0053] (10) When the glacier-blocked lake has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0054] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, monitored using optical remote sensing, drones, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial undulation and ice seismic activity, monitored using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding, monitored using sediment gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0055] (11) When glaciers block lakes and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0056] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, monitored using optical remote sensing, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial surge and ice seismic activity, monitored using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding, monitored using sediment or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0057] (12) When glaciers block lakes and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0058] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, monitored using optical remote sensing. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial surge and ice seismic activity, monitored using InSAR. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, monitored using sediment gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, cameras, and current meters.

[0059] The beneficial effects of this invention are:

[0060] (1) Improve the ability to perceive key monitoring information: accurately set monitoring priorities for different types of glacial lake outburst mechanisms and accurately capture limited precursor information of glacial lake outbursts.

[0061] (2) Optimize resource allocation: tailor allocation plans based on the differences in accessibility of the monitored areas to effectively avoid blind investment in inaccessible areas and improve overall economic efficiency.

[0062] (3) Achieve full-process coverage: Connect the entire disaster chain from disaster incubation to triggering to evolution, enhance the ability to perceive risk situation more completely, and extend the effective early warning time window.

[0063] (4) Enhance system resilience: multiple technologies complement each other. When a certain technology is limited, other technologies can still provide basic monitoring capabilities to ensure system reliability. Attached Figure Description

[0064] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the steps of the present invention.

[0065] Figure 2 The graphs show the relationship between accessibility and early warning time, source area equipment quantity and economy of the present invention; (a) is a graph showing the relationship between accessibility and early warning time, (b) is a graph showing the relationship between accessibility and source area equipment quantity, and (c) is a graph showing the relationship between accessibility and economy.

[0066] Figure 3 This is a slope diagram.

[0067] Figure 4 This is a topographic relief map.

[0068] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the monitoring layout. Detailed Implementation

[0069] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the technical solutions of this invention are described clearly and completely below. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of this invention, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of this invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this invention.

[0070] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst flood disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process, comprising:

[0071] Step 1. Identify the type of glacial lake:

[0072] Remote sensing image data of the target glacial lake is acquired. Based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relationships of the target glacial lake, the types of glacial lakes are identified and classified. The types of glacial lakes include at least surface glacial lakes, moraine-blocked lakes, and glacier-blocked lakes.

[0073] Step 2. Accessibility assessment:

[0074] Based on national road information, remote sensing interpretation, and digital elevation models, the accessibility level of the area where the target glacial lake is located is assessed. The accessibility level includes four levels: good, moderate, poor, and very poor.

[0075] Step 3. Monitoring solution configuration:

[0076] Based on the target glacial lake type identified in step 1 and the accessibility level of the target glacial lake assessed in step 2, a matching monitoring scheme is retrieved from a pre-set scheme library. The monitoring scheme includes a combination of monitoring elements and technologies for each section of the glacial lake's disaster-prone area, triggering dynamics area, and downstream evolution area.

[0077] Step 4. Data Fusion and Early Warning:

[0078] The monitoring plan in step 3 is executed to obtain multi-source monitoring data, perform fusion analysis, and output the failure risk level and early warning information based on the analysis results.

[0079] Furthermore, the method for assessing the accessibility level in step 2 includes: constructing the accessibility level of the glacier lake based on the influencing indicators affecting its accessibility. The calculation formula is: ;

[0080] in, Accessibility level; For standardized evaluation factors, The weights of each evaluation factor. include and . : The distance from the center line of the ice lake along the river channel to the nearest road along the river channel, in km. The average slope within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, with a default buffer zone length of 500m, in degrees. The overall topographic relief within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline. The default buffer zone is 500m, and the unit is meters. yes The arithmetic mean, The calculation formula is: .

[0081] Topographic relief within a given analysis grid, measured in meters (m).

[0082] This analysis shows the maximum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0083] This analysis shows the minimum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0084] The default grid size for analysis is 100m×100m.

[0085] : Elevation of the glacial lake, in meters (m).

[0086] Weights of each evaluation factor Determined through expert scoring or analytic hierarchy process.

[0087] Furthermore, by setting thresholds, each evaluation factor is standardized, and in accordance with the general industry classification standards for geological disaster evaluation, it is divided into four levels: good, medium, poor, and very poor. It directly reflects its accessibility; the closer the distance, the better the transportation accessibility. The greater the positive contribution, the better. Considering the topographic features of high-altitude glacial lake distribution areas, the feasibility of field surveys, and the practical needs of gradient matching accessibility and numerical rounding, the specific thresholds are defined as follows:

[0088] The optimal upper limit for rapid accessibility via hiking in mountainous areas is approximately 2km. Within this distance, equipment can be carried directly on foot, maximizing operational efficiency. Therefore, 2km is set as the critical node for good to moderate accessibility. The reasonable single-trip hiking limit for routine daily fieldwork in high-altitude mountainous areas is approximately 10km. Beyond this distance, camping and resupply planning is necessary, significantly increasing operational difficulty and risk. Therefore, 10km is set as the critical node for moderate to poor accessibility. Around 30km represents the practical operational boundary for high-altitude glacial lake surveys. Above this distance lies near-uninhabited territory, making routine field surveys difficult. Therefore, 30km is set as the critical line for poor to extremely poor accessibility.

[0089] Given that the difficulty of the journey increases exponentially with distance, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific assignment rule is: when... When the distance is less than 2km, the value is 1.0; when... For distances greater than or equal to 2km and less than 10km, the value is 0.6; when... For distances greater than or equal to 10km and less than 30km, the value is 0.3; when... When the distance is greater than or equal to 30km, the value is 0.1.

[0090] This directly reflects the difficulty of transportation construction and access in the wild. The steeper the slope, the greater the difficulty of transportation construction and access, and the worse the accessibility. The more pronounced the negative impact, the better. Considering the topographical features of high-altitude glacial lake distribution areas, the realities of mountain transportation construction, the travel patterns observed in field surveys, and the practical needs of gradient matching accessibility and integer slope threshold determination, the specific threshold divisions are as follows:

[0091] 15° is the upper limit of suitable slope for simple transportation construction in mountainous areas and regular hiking in the wild. Within this range, there are no obvious steep slope obstacles, allowing for smooth passage with equipment. Transportation construction does not require large-scale engineering work, resulting in the highest operational efficiency. Therefore, 15° is set as the critical node for good to moderate accessibility. 25° is the extreme slope for regular hiking in mountainous areas without professional equipment, and also a reasonable practical threshold for simple transportation construction. Exceeding this slope requires basic outdoor equipment, and transportation construction necessitates simple slope cutting and step construction, significantly increasing the difficulty and risk of the operation. Therefore, 25° is set as the critical node for moderate to poor accessibility. 35° is the engineering practical boundary for transportation construction in mountainous areas, and also the professional limit for wilderness passage through high-altitude glacial lakes. Above this slope, conventional transportation construction requires large-scale slope support, wilderness passage requires professional mountaineering equipment and teamwork, and the difficulty of conventional field surveys increases dramatically. Therefore, 35° is set as the critical line for poor to very poor accessibility.

[0092] Given that the difficulty of transportation construction and traffic increases exponentially with increasing slope, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific assignment rule is as follows: when... When the angle is less than 15°, the value is 1.0; when S is greater than or equal to 15° and less than 25°, the value is 0.6; when When the angle is greater than or equal to 25° and less than 35°, the value is 0.3; when... For slopes greater than or equal to 35°, the value is 0.1. Integer slope thresholds facilitate quick determination of slope ranges and assignment of values ​​in practical work, effectively improving the efficiency of this indicator in glacial lake hazard assessment.

[0093] This directly reflects the complexity of the terrain within the buffer zone. The greater the topographic relief and the more complex the terrain, the greater the obstacles to transportation infrastructure and access to the wild, resulting in poorer accessibility. The more pronounced the negative impact, the more significant the effect. Considering the valley geomorphological characteristics of high-altitude glacial lake distribution areas, the filling and excavation projects in mountainous transportation construction, the terrain access patterns observed in field surveys, and the practical needs of gradient matching accessibility and numerical rounding determination, the specific threshold divisions are as follows:

[0094] 20m is the upper limit of suitable terrain undulation for mountain transportation construction and routine field hiking. At this distance, the terrain is flat with no significant elevation changes, allowing for smooth passage along the river with equipment. Transportation construction does not require large-scale excavation and filling, resulting in the highest operational efficiency. Therefore, 20m is set as the critical node for good to moderate accessibility. 50m is the limit of terrain undulation for routine passage in mountainous areas without specialized equipment. It is also a reasonable practical threshold for the construction of simple mountain trails. Beyond this undulation, obstacles such as gullies and steep slopes must be avoided, and transportation construction requires minor excavation and filling, significantly increasing the difficulty and risk. Therefore, 50m is set as the critical node for moderate to poor accessibility. 100m is the engineering boundary for routine transportation construction in mountainous areas and the terrain accessibility limit for field surveys of high-altitude glacial lakes. Above this undulation, the terrain has significant elevation changes and dense obstacles. Routine transportation construction requires large-scale engineering work, and field travel requires specialized equipment and teamwork. Routine field surveys are difficult to conduct efficiently. Therefore, 100m is set as the critical line for poor to very poor accessibility.

[0095] Given that the difficulty of transportation construction and access increases exponentially with the terrain's undulation, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific value assignment rule is: when... When the value is less than 20m, the value is 1.0. For lengths greater than or equal to 20m and less than 50m, the value is 0.6; when... For lengths greater than or equal to 50m and less than 100m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 100m, the value is 0.1.

[0096] This directly reflects the degree to which high-altitude environments constrain transportation construction and field operations. The higher the altitude, the more significant the impact of cold, oxygen deficiency, and permafrost conditions, leading to higher costs and difficulties in transportation construction, higher requirements for field operation safety, and poorer accessibility. The more pronounced the negative impact, the better. Considering the geographical characteristics of high-altitude plateau regions, the human body's tolerance to high altitudes, the engineering adaptability of transportation construction in high-altitude mountainous areas, and the practical needs of gradient matching accessibility and numerical rounding judgment, the specific threshold divisions are as follows:

[0097] 4000m is the critical threshold between conventional and high-altitude plateaus, and also the upper limit of human tolerance to altitude sickness. Within this distance, field surveys do not require specialized altitude sickness protection, transportation construction is minimally affected by the cold environment, and operational efficiency is highest. Therefore, 4000m is set as the critical node for good to moderate accessibility. 4500m is the critical node for moderate to high altitude, and also the limit of human tolerance for conventional field work in high-altitude areas. Above this altitude, some personnel will experience moderate altitude sickness. Transportation construction is significantly less efficient due to permafrost and oxygen deficiency, requiring basic high-altitude support supplies, and significantly increasing operational difficulty and risk. Therefore, 4500m is set as the critical node for moderate to poor accessibility. 5000m is the critical boundary for extremely high altitude, and also the engineering boundary for transportation construction in high-altitude mountainous areas. Above this altitude, people are prone to severe altitude sickness, and transportation construction is difficult to carry out due to factors such as permafrost and extreme low temperatures. The safety risks of conventional field surveys are extremely high. Therefore, 5000m is set as the critical line for poor to very poor accessibility.

[0098] Given that the difficulty of transportation construction and field operations increases exponentially with altitude, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific assignment rule is as follows: when... When the value is less than 4000m, the value is 1.0. For distances greater than or equal to 4000m and less than 4500m, the value is 0.6. For distances greater than or equal to 4500m and less than 5000m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 5000m, the value is 0.1.

[0099] Through formula Calculated The value can be used to determine the accessibility level of the ice lake, such as... A value in the range [0-0.25] indicates poor accessibility. A value between 0.25 and 0.5 indicates poor accessibility. A value between 0.5 and 0.75 indicates moderate accessibility. A value in the range of [0.75-1] indicates good traffic accessibility.

[0100] Furthermore, such as Figure 2 As shown, in step 3, the monitoring schemes that match the target glacial lake type and its accessibility level include:

[0101] (1) When the frozen lake surface and accessibility are good, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0102] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing, drones, shallow water ice profilers, ice-water radar, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorological conditions. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing, weather stations, cameras, and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows. Monitoring methods include mud level gauges or water level gauges, current meters, and cameras.

[0103] (2) When the ice lake surface and accessibility are moderate, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0104] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, which can be monitored using optical remote sensing, drones, glacial water level radar, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorological conditions, which can be monitored using optical remote sensing, weather stations, and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, which can be monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0105] (3) When the lake is frozen and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0106] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, which are monitored using optical remote sensing, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorological conditions, which can be monitored using optical remote sensing and weather stations. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, which are monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0107] (4) When the lake is frozen and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0108] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, using optical remote sensing. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are the parent glacier dynamics and meteorological conditions, also using optical remote sensing. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, ground acoustic monitors, cameras, and current meters.

[0109] Glacial lakes are located directly on the surface or terminus of glaciers. Their outbursts are often triggered by the collapse of ice dams or changes in the hydraulic system inside the glacier, and are characterized by their suddenness and short prediction period.

[0110] (5) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has good accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0111] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAVs, GNSS displacement gauges, crack gauges, resistivity tomography, piezometers, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. Monitoring methods include weather stations, crack gauges, inclinometers, microseismic monitoring instruments, and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Monitoring methods include mud level gauges or water level gauges, flow velocity meters, and cameras.

[0112] (6) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0113] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage. Monitoring methods include optical remote sensing or InSAR, drones, GNSS displacement gauges, piezometers, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. Monitoring methods include weather stations, fissure gauges, microseismic monitoring instruments, and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Monitoring methods include mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0114] (7) When glacial moraine blocks the lake or when accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0115] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage, monitored using optical remote sensing or InSAR, drones, GNSS displacement meters, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall, monitored using meteorological stations and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow, monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0116] (8) When glacial moraine blocks the lake and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0117] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage, monitored using optical remote sensing or InSAR. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall, monitored using optical remote sensing and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow, monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitoring instruments, ground acoustic monitoring instruments, cameras, and current meters.

[0118] Glacial moraine-blocked lakes are formed by glacial deposits blocking the water, and are the most common and dangerous type. The core risk lies in the stability of the moraine dam itself.

[0119] (9) When the glacier blocks the lake and accessibility is good, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0120] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, using optical remote sensing, drones, resistivity tomography, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial undulation and ice seismic activity, using InSAR, GNSS displacement gauges, and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding, using current meters, sediment gauges or water level gauges, and cameras.

[0121] (10) When the glacier-blocked lake has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0122] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, monitored using optical remote sensing, drones, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial undulation and ice seismic activity, monitored using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding, monitored using sediment gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0123] (11) When glaciers block lakes and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0124] The monitoring area is a glacial lake disaster-prone zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, monitored using optical remote sensing, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is a triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial surge and ice seismic activity, monitored using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is a downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding, monitored using sediment or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0125] (12) When glaciers block lakes and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows:

[0126] The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography, monitored using optical remote sensing. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacial surge and ice seismic activity, monitored using InSAR. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, monitored using sediment gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, cameras, and current meters.

[0127] Glacier-blocked lakes are formed by glaciers blocking the main river valley. Their outbursts are periodic, often caused by the opening of subglacial tunnels or the uplift of the ice cap, resulting in the rapid emptying of the accumulated lake water.

[0128] Example

[0129] Taking a certain glacial lake as an example, the specific steps for carrying out relevant monitoring deployment are as follows:

[0130] (1) Based on high-resolution remote sensing images, the type of glacial lake was determined to be a moraine-blocked lake, and the overflow point of the terminal moraine dam was also determined. ;

[0131] (2) Based on high-resolution remote sensing imagery, determine the nearest accessible ditch point near the road. ;

[0132] (3) Use manual drawing or automatic recognition programs to determine the center line of the downstream channel of the glacial lake. and statistics to Distance along the center line of the river =11.98km;

[0133] (4) In the ArcGIS platform, use the buffer tool to... Generate a 500m buffer zone ;

[0134] (5) Using a digital elevation model with a precision of 12.5m, extract values ​​to points using the value extraction tool in the ArcGIS platform to obtain... Point Elevation =4650m;

[0135] (6) In the ArcGIS platform, the slope tool and focus statistics tool are used to obtain the slope and undulation raster, respectively. See [link to relevant documentation]. Figure 3 , Figure 4 and Figure 5 ;

[0136] (7) Use Cut the slope and undulation grids, calculate the average grid value, and obtain... =33.6°, =10.1m;

[0137] (8) Based on the foregoing content, we obtain , , , The assigned values ​​were 0.3, 0.3, 1.0, and 0.3, respectively.

[0138] (9) Based on the environmental background conditions of the glacial lake development area, the evaluation factors L, L, and L were comprehensively determined using the expert scoring method. , , The weights are 0.25, 0.35, 0.3 and 0.1.

[0139] (10) Based on the level of accessibility The calculation formula is obtained. =0.3×0.25+0.3×0.35+1.0×0.3+0.3×0.1=0.51. According to the aforementioned information, the accessibility level of this glacial lake is medium.

[0140] (11) Based on the moderately accessible monitoring scheme for glacial moraine-blocked lakes, and considering the type of glacial lake and its potential outburst characteristics, the proposed monitoring types and equipment are as follows: Figure 5 And the following description. Proposed monitoring type and equipment deployment:

[0141] Space-based monitoring utilizes optical remote sensing, with a monitoring range of 16 km. 2 InSAR monitoring was used, with a monitoring range of 14 km. 2 Aerial monitoring, using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), has a monitoring range of 2km. 2 For foundation monitoring, the following equipment will be deployed: 2 integrated meteorological stations, 5 GNSS displacement meters, 2 crack gauges, 1 water level gauge, 6 microseismic monitoring instruments, 2 current meters, 2 cameras, 8 mud level gauges or water level gauges, and 3 early warning broadcast systems.

[0142] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and not to limit them; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some of the technical features; and these modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst flood disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process, characterized in that, include: Step 1. Identify the type of glacial lake: Acquire remote sensing image data of the target glacial lake, and identify and classify the glacial lake type based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relationships of the target glacial lake. The glacial lake type includes at least surface glacial lake, moraine-blocked lake, and glacier-blocked lake. Step 2. Accessibility assessment: Based on national road information, remote sensing interpretation, and digital elevation models, the accessibility level of the area where the target glacial lake is located is assessed. The accessibility level includes four levels: good, moderate, poor, and very poor. Step 3. Monitoring solution configuration: Based on the target glacial lake type identified in step 1 and the target glacial lake accessibility level assessed in step 2, a matching monitoring scheme is retrieved from the pre-set scheme library. Step 4. Data Fusion and Early Warning: Execute the monitoring plan in step 3, acquire multi-source monitoring data, perform fusion analysis, and output the failure risk level and early warning information based on the analysis results; The accessibility assessment method in step 2 includes: constructing the accessibility level of the glacier lake based on the influencing indicators affecting its accessibility. The calculation formula is: ， in, Accessibility level; For standardized evaluation factors, The weights of each evaluation factor; include and ; Distance from the center line of the ice lake along the river channel to the nearest road along the river channel, in km; The average slope within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, in degrees; The overall topographic relief within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, in meters. yes The arithmetic mean, The calculation formula is: ， Topographic relief within a given analysis grid, in meters (m). This analysis shows the maximum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m). This analysis shows the minimum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m). : Elevation of the glacial lake, in meters; Weights of each evaluation factor Determined through expert scoring or analytic hierarchy process; in, and The assignment rules are as follows: when When the distance is less than 2km, the value is 1.0; when... For distances greater than or equal to 2km and less than 10km, the value is 0.6; when... For distances greater than or equal to 10km and less than 30km, the value is 0.3; when... For distances greater than or equal to 30 km, the value is 0.1; when When the angle is less than 15°, the value is 1.

0. When the angle is greater than or equal to 15° and less than 25°, the value is 0.6; when... When the angle is greater than or equal to 25° and less than 35°, the value is 0.3; when... When the angle is greater than or equal to 35°, the value is 0.1; when When the value is less than 20m, the value is 1.

0. For lengths greater than or equal to 20m and less than 50m, the value is 0.6; when... For lengths greater than or equal to 50m and less than 100m, the value is 0.

3. For lengths greater than or equal to 100m, the value is 0.1; when When the value is less than 4000m, the value is 1.

0. For distances greater than or equal to 4000m and less than 4500m, the value is 0.

6. For distances greater than or equal to 4500m and less than 5000m, the value is 0.

3. When the value is greater than or equal to 5000m, the value is 0.

1.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The monitoring scheme described in step 3 includes a combination of monitoring elements and technologies for each section of the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the triggering dynamic area, and the downstream evolution area.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The monitoring solutions that match this in step 3 include: (1) When the frozen lake surface and accessibility are good, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing, UAVs, shallow water ice profilers, ice and water condition radar, water level gauges and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing, weather stations, cameras and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows. The monitoring is carried out using mud level gauges or water level gauges, current meters and cameras. (2) When the icy lake surface and accessibility are moderate, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing, UAVs, glacial water condition radar, water level gauges and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing, weather stations and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows. The monitoring is carried out using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras. (3) When the lake is frozen and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing, water level gauges and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing and meteorological stations. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows. The monitoring is carried out using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras and infrasound monitors. (4) When the lake is frozen and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability. Optical remote sensing is used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology. Optical remote sensing is used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows. Mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, ground acoustic monitors, cameras and current meters are used for monitoring.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, Step 3 also includes: (1) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has good accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement meter, crack meter, resistivity tomography, piezometer and camera. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. The monitoring is carried out using weather station, crack meter, inclinometer, microseismic monitoring instrument and camera. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. The monitoring is carried out using mud level meter or water level meter, flow velocity meter and camera. (2) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement gauge, piezometer and camera. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. The monitoring is carried out using weather station, crack gauge, microseismic monitoring instrument and camera. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. The monitoring is carried out using mud level gauge or water level gauge and camera. (3) When glacial moraine blocks the lake and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement meter and camera. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. The monitoring is carried out using meteorological station and microseismic monitoring instrument. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. The monitoring is carried out using mud level meter or water level meter, camera and infrasound monitoring instrument. (4) When glacial moraine blocks the lake and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. Optical remote sensing or InSAR is used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. Optical remote sensing and microseismic monitoring instruments are used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitoring instruments, ground acoustic monitoring instruments, cameras and flow velocity meters are used for monitoring.

5. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, Step 3 also includes: (1) When the glacier blocks the lake and accessibility is good, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography. The monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, UAV, resistivity tomography, water level gauge and camera. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacial pulsation and ice seismicity. The monitoring is carried out by InSAR, GNSS displacement gauge and microseismic monitoring instrument. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden flood. The monitoring is carried out by current meter, mud level gauge or water level gauge and camera. (2) When the glacier-blocked lake has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography. The monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, UAV, water level gauge and camera. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacial pulsation and ice seismicity. The monitoring is carried out by InSAR and microseismic monitoring instrument. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden flood. The monitoring is carried out by mud level gauge or water level gauge and camera. (3) Monitoring scheme for glacier-blocked lakes and areas with poor accessibility: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing, water level gauges and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacial pulsation and ice seismic activity. The monitoring is carried out using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden flood. The monitoring is carried out using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras and infrasound monitoring instruments. (4) Monitoring plan for glacier-blocked lakes and areas with poor accessibility: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography. Optical remote sensing is used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacial undulation and ice seismicity. InSAR is used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden flood. Mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, cameras and current meters are used for monitoring.

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