Leading edge bulge crack prediction method, system, device and readable storage medium

Abstract

A method, system, device, and readable storage medium for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks are disclosed, relating to the field of geological disaster monitoring and early warning. Specifically, the method includes determining the active thrust of the landslide on the leading edge based on the landslide mass weight, sliding surface dip angle, seepage hydrodynamics, and additional thrust, wherein the additional thrust is generated by external dynamic disturbance. When the detected active thrust is not less than the passive earth pressure limit, the target vertical bulging displacement is determined based on horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear zone thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor. The predicted leading-edge bulging crack result is determined based on the target vertical bulging displacement and the predicted vertical bulging displacement. This application can improve the accuracy and applicability of leading-edge bulging crack prediction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of geological disaster monitoring and early warning, specifically to a method, system, device, and readable storage medium for predicting frontal bulging cracks. Background Technology

[0002] Soil landslides are a type of overall instability disaster that occurs along the sliding surface under the combined effects of rainfall infiltration, groundwater seepage, seismic vibration, and human loads. They are particularly susceptible to the combined effects of hydrodynamics and gravity on steep slopes and reservoir banks, leading to accelerated deformation and evolution of the landslide mass. (Refer to...) Figure 1 As shown, the front and middle sections of the landslide are the anti-sliding sections, while the rear section is the sliding section. The "force source" causing slope deformation and failure mainly comes from the sliding section at the rear edge of the slope. Therefore, during the slope deformation process, the rear section, due to the large sliding thrust, is the first to experience tensile cracking and sliding deformation, and tensile cracks are generated at the rear edge of the landslide. As time continues, the deformation of the soil and rock mass in the rear section continues to develop forward and to both sides (plane) and inside the slope (section), and the magnitude of deformation also continues to increase, pushing and deforming the soil and rock mass in the front and middle anti-sliding sections. During this process, the surface crack system often exhibits the following characteristics: Figure 2 The phased matching features are shown.

[0003] If the free-fall conditions at the leading edge of the landslide are insufficient, or if the sliding surface has a long, gentle section or even a reverse-tilting section at the front, the landslide will be blocked by the anti-sliding section at the front during its forward sliding motion, resulting in stress concentration at the blocking point. As the sliding deformation increases, the thrust is continuously transmitted to the leading edge. The rock and soil mass that cannot continue to move forward can only coordinate with the thrust continuously transmitted from behind through bulging, thus creating a bulging zone at the leading edge of the slope. The bulging rock and soil mass, in the longitudinal direction (along the sliding direction), produces radial longitudinal bulging cracks under the pushing force from the middle and rear, while in the transverse direction, the rock and soil mass forms transverse bulging cracks due to bending deformation (see...). Figure 1 , Figure 2 When all the aforementioned cracks have appeared and formed a basically closed surface crack pattern, it indicates that the slope sliding surface has been basically connected, the conditions for overall slope instability and failure have been met, and a landslide is about to occur. During the formation and evolution of a landslide, the leading edge of the landslide body is subjected to the combined action of passive earth pressure and shear thrust, while the trailing edge of the landslide body is in a stress state of active tension coupled with gravity sliding. When rainfall replenishment or sudden changes in reservoir water level cause an increase in pore water pressure inside the landslide body, the overall effective stress decreases, and the tendency of expansion deformation of the soil in the shear zone intensifies. When the leading edge resistance fails to completely absorb the shear work provided by the landslide body, the leading edge bulges and is accompanied by tensile cracking, which is a key indicator that the landslide transitions from slow deformation to rapid failure.

[0004] In terms of disaster impact, the appearance of expansion cracks indicates that the time window for landslide instability is extremely close. Once the landslide enters a rapid failure phase, the landslide mass will slide down on a large scale, burying or impacting roads, villages, factories, etc., which can easily cause serious casualties and property damage. Since expansion cracks often appear at the leading edge or near the toe of the landslide, these locations are often areas with frequent human activity (such as road foundations, in front of residential buildings, or downstream of dam foundations), their risk index is significantly higher than that of cracks in the middle and later sections of the slope. The appearance of cracks not only weakens the overall resistance of the soil at the leading edge, but also changes the stress field distribution and accelerates the formation of seepage channels, thereby significantly increasing the overall instability risk of the landslide. Therefore, accurate prediction of expansion cracks is of paramount importance for real-time early warning, engineering protection, and emergency response to landslide disasters.

[0005] However, existing prediction methods in this field are mostly focused on the application of single physical criteria or empirical thresholds, which have obvious shortcomings in accuracy and applicability. Therefore, how to improve the accuracy and applicability of leading edge bulging crack prediction is an urgent problem to be solved. Summary of the Invention

[0006] This application provides a method, system, device, and readable storage medium for predicting leading edge bulging cracks, which can improve the accuracy and applicability of leading edge bulging crack prediction.

[0007] In a first aspect, embodiments of this application provide a method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks, the method comprising: The active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge is determined based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust, wherein the additional thrust is the thrust generated by the external dynamic disturbance. When the active thrust is detected to be no less than the passive earth pressure limit, the target vertical heave displacement is determined based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear zone thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor. The prediction results of the leading edge bulging crack were determined based on the target vertical bulging displacement and the predicted vertical bulging displacement.

[0008] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one embodiment, determining the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamics, and the additional thrust includes: Substituting the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust into the following calculation formula, we obtain the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge:

[0009] In the formula, The weight of the sliding body; The inclination angle of the sliding surface; For seepage hydrodynamics; To provide additional thrust; This is the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge.

[0010] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one embodiment, determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor includes: The dynamic dilatation angle function is determined based on the maximum dilatation angle, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The target vertical bulge displacement is determined based on the dynamic dilatation angle function, horizontal shear displacement, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, and hydraulic correction factor.

[0011] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one implementation, the expression for the dynamic shear dilatation angle function is:

[0012] In the formula, This is the maximum shear dilatation angle; This is the initial effective stress; Let be the real-time effective stress at time t; This is the stress sensitivity coefficient of the shear dilatation angle; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function.

[0013] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one embodiment, the formula for calculating the vertical displacement of the target bulge is:

[0014] In the formula, Let be the horizontal shear displacement at time t; This is the geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness; The hydraulic correction factor at time t; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function; Let t be the vertical displacement of the target bulge at time t.

[0015] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one embodiment, prior to the step of determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, shear band thickness geometric correction factor, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor, the method further includes: The constraint modulus of the capping layer was determined based on Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of triaxial compression. The geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness is determined based on the capping layer constraint modulus, the shear band constraint modulus, the shear band thickness, and the capping layer thickness.

[0016] In conjunction with the first aspect, in one embodiment, prior to the step of determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, shear band thickness geometric correction factor, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor, the method further includes: The hydraulic correction coefficient is determined based on the instantaneous slip zone seepage gradient and preset field experience values.

[0017] Secondly, embodiments of this application provide a leading edge bulging crack prediction system, the leading edge bulging crack prediction system comprising: The first processing module is used to determine the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust, wherein the additional thrust is the thrust generated by the external dynamic disturbance. The second processing module is used to determine the target vertical heave displacement when the detected active thrust is not less than the passive earth pressure limit, based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction coefficient of shear band thickness, hydraulic correction coefficient, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The third processing module is used to determine the prediction result of the leading edge bulging crack based on the target vertical bulging displacement and the predicted vertical bulging displacement.

[0018] Thirdly, embodiments of this application provide a leading edge bulge crack prediction device, the leading edge bulge crack prediction device including a processor, a memory, and a leading edge bulge crack prediction program stored in the memory and executable by the processor, wherein when the leading edge bulge crack prediction program is executed by the processor, it implements the steps of the leading edge bulge crack prediction method as described in any of the preceding claims.

[0019] Fourthly, embodiments of this application provide a computer-readable storage medium storing a leading edge bulge crack prediction program, wherein when the leading edge bulge crack prediction program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the leading edge bulge crack prediction method as described in any of the preceding claims. The beneficial effects of the technical solutions provided in this application include: The main driving force influencing the formation of uplift cracks at the leading edge of the landslide was determined by the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamics, and the additional thrust. This is the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge. When the detected active thrust is not less than the passive earth pressure limit, it indicates that the soil at the leading edge is subjected to sufficient thrust, which may lead to uplift or crack formation. Then, based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction coefficient for shear zone thickness (which quantifies the influence of different geological structures on uplift displacement and can adapt to landslides of different thicknesses), hydraulic correction coefficient (which accurately reflects the weakening effect of seepage on the effective stress and shear strength of the soil), initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient, the target... The target vertical uplift displacement is used as the benchmark; the prediction result of the leading edge bulging crack is determined based on the magnitude relationship between the target vertical uplift displacement and the predicted vertical uplift displacement; this application adopts a prediction mechanism of "mechanics-deformation dual criteria", which not only avoids the problem of missed alarms caused by the inability of a single mechanical criterion to reflect the actual deformation process, but also overcomes the false alarm phenomenon caused by the neglect of mechanical conditions in the single displacement threshold judgment. It realizes the organic unity of the judgment and prediction of the mechanical conditions for the formation of bulging cracks, and significantly improves the prediction accuracy; and enhances the adaptability under different geological conditions, hydrological environment and external loads through multi-factor coupling parameters, fundamentally solving the technical problems of insufficient accuracy and poor applicability in the existing technology. Attached Figure Description

[0020] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of a typical cross-sectional structure of a push-type landslide in the existing technology; Figure 2 A schematic diagram illustrating the supporting technology for push-type landslide cracks in existing technologies; Figure 3 This is a flowchart illustrating an embodiment of the method for predicting leading edge bulge cracks in this application; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the stress analysis at the leading edge of a soil landslide in the method for predicting leading edge bulging cracks in this application; Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the heave displacement-time characteristic curve in the heave crack prediction method of this application; Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of soil shear dilatation deformation in the method for predicting leading edge bulging cracks in this application; Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram of the landslide location of the Da M Bridge in the method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks in this application; Figure 8 This is a panoramic view of the landslide at the Da M Bridge in the method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks in this application; Figure 9 This is a schematic diagram of the hardware structure of the leading edge bulge crack prediction device involved in the embodiments of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0021] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present application, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present application, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0022] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application clearer, the embodiments of this application will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0023] In a first aspect, embodiments of this application provide a method for predicting leading edge bulging cracks.

[0024] In one embodiment, reference is made to Figure 3 , Figure 3 This is a schematic flowchart illustrating an embodiment of the method for predicting leading edge bulge cracks according to this application. Figure 3 As shown, the methods for predicting leading edge bulging cracks include: Step S10: Determine the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust, wherein the additional thrust is the thrust generated by the external dynamic disturbance.

[0025] As an example, in this embodiment of the application, in order to deeply explore the mechanical response mechanism of the landslide leading edge region, monitor and calculate the mechanical criteria of the active thrust and passive earth pressure limits at the leading edge in real time, and accurately reveal its stress characteristics and evolution law, a representative feature point A in this region is selected for stress analysis, such as... Figure 4 As shown, For seepage hydrodynamics, For additional thrust; θ is the sliding surface inclination angle; This refers to the weight of the upper sliding body; it should be noted that the weight of the sliding body... The total gravity load of the landslide body can be calculated from the geometric dimensions of the landslide body and the weight of the soil measured on site; the inclination angle of the sliding surface. The angle between the sliding surface and the horizontal plane can be determined by cross-sectional measurement; seepage hydrodynamics This reflects the additional impact of groundwater seepage on the landslide body; additional thrust. This is the thrust generated by external dynamic disturbances, such as the additional thrust generated by earthquakes or construction loads; specifically, the formula for calculating the additional thrust is:

[0026] In the formula, θ is the horizontal equivalent seismic coefficient, which can be taken according to the standard; θ is the dip angle of the slip surface. Let be the weight of the upper sliding body. The formula for calculating the seepage hydrodynamics is:

[0027] In the formula, The specific gravity of water; This refers to the hydraulic gradient along the tangential direction of the slip surface; The effective volume that participates in seepage and generates thrust on the leading edge; it should be understood that the above parameters can accurately calculate the active thrust of the landslide body on the leading edge, precisely reveal the stress characteristics and evolution law of the landslide leading edge area, and provide a quantitative basis for judging the mechanical conditions for the formation of expansion cracks.

[0028] Step S20: When the active thrust is detected to be not less than the passive earth pressure limit, the target vertical heave displacement is determined based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor.

[0029] As an example, in the embodiments of this application, the passive earth pressure limit This refers to the maximum resistance to sliding provided by the soil in the leading edge of the landslide against the pushing of the sliding mass, which can be calculated according to Rankine's theory:

[0030]

[0031] In the formula, The soil weight; The height of the leading edge wedge can be obtained by cross-sectional measurement; The effective internal friction angle can be obtained from indoor triaxial tests or direct shear tests; The effective cohesion of the soil at the leading edge reflects the cohesive characteristics between soil particles. The larger the value, the stronger the soil's ability to resist shear failure. The passive earth pressure coefficient is a dimensionless parameter that reflects the stress transmission characteristics of soil under passive stress. When the active thrust is detected to be no less than the passive earth pressure limit, it indicates that the leading edge wedge has entered a plastic yielding state and has the mechanical conditions to cause swelling cracks. The target vertical heave displacement is then determined based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum shear dilatation angle, geometric correction coefficient for shear zone thickness, hydraulic correction coefficient, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and stress sensitivity coefficient of shear dilatation angle.

[0032] Specifically, horizontal shear displacement The horizontal deformation of the soil at the leading edge of a landslide along the sliding surface reflects the magnitude of soil shear deformation; maximum dilatation angle. This represents the maximum expansion angle that the soil may reach during shearing, reflecting the upper limit of the potential for volume expansion due to soil particle rearrangement. It can be obtained by measuring the peak expansion angle under different confining pressures using indoor triaxial or direct shear tests; the geometric correction factor for shear zone thickness. The influence of shear band thickness on vertical uplift displacement was quantified; hydraulic correction factor. This reflects the amplification effect of seepage on uplift displacement and quantifies the amplification effect of hydrodynamic conditions on the reduction of effective soil stress and uplift deformation; initial effective stress The initial effective stress state in the soil before the landslide begins to deform can be calculated from the total stress monitoring value and the pore water pressure monitoring value during the stabilization period; real-time effective stress. This represents the effective stress of the soil over time, reflecting the dynamic evolution of the stress state during landslide deformation. ,in, It represents the total stress on the soil, reflecting the total amount of external load borne by the soil; Represents pore water pressure; shear dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient The sensitivity of the dilatation angle to stress changes was quantified; using the above parameters, the vertical displacement of the sliding body relative to the target can be accurately calculated. .

[0033] Step S30: Determine the prediction result of the leading edge bulging crack based on the target vertical bulging displacement and the predicted vertical bulging displacement.

[0034] As an example, in the embodiments of this application, the relationship between the leading edge active thrust and the passive earth pressure limit is determined, and the leading edge active thrust... Not less than the passive earth pressure limit At this time, it enters the potential formation stage of bulging cracks; refer to Figure 5 The displacement-time characteristic curve of the bulge shown will The predicted vertical uplift displacement (i.e., critical uplift displacement) formed by the predetermined crack. Comparison, when the target vertically bulges out... Not less than the predicted vertical uplift displacement This indicates that the vertical heave deformation of the leading edge soil due to dilatation has reached or exceeded the tensile strength limit of the soil, leading to tensile failure within the soil. Therefore, the predicted heave crack result indicates the presence of a crack in the leading edge heave. When the target vertical heave displacement... Less than the predicted vertical uplift displacement This indicates that the shear dilatation deformation of the soil at the leading edge is still within the elastic range, and the vertical bulging is insufficient to overcome the soil's own cohesion and tensile strength. Therefore, the predicted result of the leading edge bulging crack is that there is no crack at the leading edge bulging.

[0035] This application identifies the main driving force influencing the formation of uplift cracks at the leading edge of a landslide by considering the weight of the landslide body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, seepage hydrodynamics, and additional thrust. Specifically, it defines the active thrust of the landslide body on the leading edge. When the active thrust is detected to be no less than the passive earth pressure limit, it indicates that the soil at the leading edge is subjected to sufficient thrust, potentially leading to uplift or crack formation. The application then comprehensively calculates the following parameters: horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction coefficient for shear zone thickness (which quantifies the influence of different geological structures on uplift displacement and can adapt to landslides of varying thicknesses), hydraulic correction coefficient (which accurately reflects the weakening effect of seepage on the effective stress and shear strength of the soil), initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The target vertical uplift displacement is determined; based on the magnitude relationship between the target vertical uplift displacement and the predicted vertical uplift displacement, the prediction result of the leading edge bulging crack is determined; this application adopts a prediction mechanism of "mechanical-deformation dual criteria", which not only avoids the problem of missed alarms caused by the inability of a single mechanical criterion to reflect the actual deformation process, but also overcomes the false alarm phenomenon caused by the single displacement threshold judgment ignoring mechanical conditions. It realizes the organic unity of the discrimination and prediction of the mechanical conditions for the formation of bulging cracks, and significantly improves the prediction accuracy; and enhances the adaptability under different geological conditions, hydrological environment and external loads through multi-factor coupling parameters, fundamentally solving the technical problems of insufficient accuracy and poor applicability in the existing technology.

[0036] Furthermore, in one embodiment, determining the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamics, and the additional thrust includes: Substituting the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust into the following calculation formula, we obtain the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge:

[0037] In the formula, The weight of the sliding body; The inclination angle of the sliding surface; For seepage hydrodynamics; To provide additional thrust; This is the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge.

[0038] As an example, in the embodiments of this application, the weight of the sliding body is... Inclination angle of sliding surface seepage hydrodynamics and additional thrust Substituting into the following formula, we obtain the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge. : .

[0039] Further, in one embodiment, determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor includes: The dynamic dilatation angle function is determined based on the maximum dilatation angle, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The target vertical bulge displacement is determined based on the dynamic dilatation angle function, horizontal shear displacement, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, and hydraulic correction factor.

[0040] As an example, in the embodiments of this application, when the sliding body exerts an active thrust on the leading edge When the passive earth pressure gradually increases and is not less than the limit, the leading edge of the landslide enters the shear deformation stage. At this time, on the one hand, the soil at the leading edge undergoes horizontal shear deformation due to the pushing action of the landslide, triggering the dilatation effect, which inevitably leads to volume expansion during the soil shearing process; on the other hand, the leading edge of the landslide is usually constrained by the terrain, making it difficult to expand freely in the horizontal direction. The deformation demand for volume expansion cannot be released through lateral displacement and can only be transformed into vertical uplift displacement along the vertical direction of least resistance, such as... Figure 6 As shown.

[0041] It should be noted that as shear deformation continues, the volume expansion dominated by the dilatation angle accumulates, and the vertical heave of the soil at the leading edge gradually increases, forming a distinct surface heave zone. At this time, the soil in the heave zone will produce two types of characteristic cracks due to the combined effects of vertical tension and lateral compression: one is longitudinal radial cracks along the sliding direction; the other is transverse arc-shaped cracks perpendicular to the sliding direction, i.e., "heave cracks". When the soil undergoes tangential sliding along the potential sliding surface, if the material exhibits dilatation, the sliding will induce a normal "opening". If the dilatation angle is defined as the instantaneous geometric relationship between the normal displacement and the tangential displacement, then under unconstrained ideal conditions, the existing formula for calculating the vertical heave displacement is: ,in The vertical uplift displacement predicted at time t; Let t be the horizontal shear displacement. This is the maximum shear dilatation angle.

[0042] However, the actual uplift displacement at the leading edge of a landslide is constrained by multiple factors, including dynamic changes in effective stress, geometric constraints of the shear zone, and hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, a dynamic dilatation angle function is introduced. Geometric correction factor and hydraulic correction factor A dynamic uplift displacement prediction formula capable of reflecting the coupled effects of multiple factors in real time is established, thereby transforming the mechanical instability condition into a quantifiable deformation development curve that evolves over time. Specifically, the volume expansion effect of soil due to particle rearrangement during shearing is mainly released vertically due to topographic constraints, and the dilatation angle function is the key parameter describing this dilatation-expansion relationship, with its tangent value... It directly reflects the proportion of vertical uplift displacement caused by a unit horizontal shear displacement, thus realizing the mechanical transformation from horizontal deformation to vertical uplift, and providing a key deformation coupling relationship for the time-series prediction of uplift cracks at the leading edge of landslides.

[0043] It should be understood that during horizontal shearing, the soil undergoes volume expansion due to particle rearrangement. However, because the topographic constraints at the landslide front limit lateral expansion, the deformation demand from this volume expansion is primarily released along the vertical direction of least resistance, resulting in uplift displacement. The dynamic dilatation angle function... It accurately characterizes the proportion of vertical bulge induced by a unit horizontal shear displacement, and the geometric correction factor for shear band thickness. This reflects the modulating effect of deformation space constraints on the uplift amplitude, and the hydraulic correction coefficient. This study captures the dynamic amplification effect of hydrodynamic conditions on dilatation. By coupling these four key parameters with multiple physics fields, it achieves accurate quantification and real-time prediction of vertical uplift displacement at the leading edge of landslides, providing a scientific basis for the accurate determination of the formation sequence of dilatation cracks.

[0044] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the expression for the dynamic dilatation angle function is:

[0045] In the formula, This is the maximum shear dilatation angle; This is the initial effective stress; Let be the real-time effective stress at time t; This is the stress sensitivity coefficient of the shear dilatation angle; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function.

[0046] As an example, in the embodiments of this application, early calculations of the dilatation angle often used total stress. Constructing empirical formulas ( ),in, This represents the initial total stress; The total stress is the real-time total stress. However, in the landslide shear zone, the pore water pressure changes drastically while the total stress fluctuates gently. If the total stress form is still used, the relaxation effect of the soil skeleton structure caused by the increase in pore pressure will be ignored, leading to an underestimation of the dilatation angle or even a misjudgment of the heave amplitude. Therefore, the effective normal stress σ′ must be used instead of the total stress. This allows the formula to accurately reflect the stress state and mechanical response of the soil skeleton: Specifically, the maximum shear dilatation angle Initial effective stress Real-time effective stress at time t and shear dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient Substitute into the following formula to determine the dynamic dilatation angle function. : .

[0047] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the formula for calculating the vertical displacement of the target bulge is:

[0048] In the formula, Let be the horizontal shear displacement at time t; This is the geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness; The hydraulic correction factor at time t; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function; Let t be the vertical displacement of the target bulge at time t.

[0049] As an example, in the embodiments of this application, the dynamic shear dilatation angle function is used. Horizontal shear displacement at time t Geometric correction factor for shear band thickness Hydraulic correction coefficient at time t Substitute the values ​​into the following formula to determine the vertical displacement of the target at time t. : .

[0050] Furthermore, in one embodiment, before the step of determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, shear band thickness geometric correction factor, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor, the method further includes: The constraint modulus of the capping layer was determined based on Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of triaxial compression. The geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness is determined based on the capping layer constraint modulus, the shear band constraint modulus, the shear band thickness, and the capping layer thickness.

[0051] In this embodiment, as an example, the Young's modulus measured by triaxial compression test represents the soil's ability to resist longitudinal deformation within the elastic deformation range. It is the slope of the linear segment of the stress-strain curve, reflecting the stiffness characteristics of the soil particle skeleton. The larger the value, the stronger the soil's ability to resist deformation. Poisson's ratio describes the ratio of lateral strain to longitudinal strain under uniaxial compression, characterizing the soil's volumetric deformation characteristics. It is preferably taken between 0.1 and 0.45. The larger the value, the more significant the lateral expansion of the soil under compression. The overburden constraint modulus is a key parameter for measuring the soil's ability to resist vertical deformation under laterally constrained conditions. It can be accurately determined by Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. It reflects the stiffness characteristics of the soil when it is subjected to vertical stress and the lateral strain is constrained to zero. In the prediction of landslide front heave cracks, it is used to quantify the constraint effect of the overburden on the vertical heave of the landslide body. Its physical significance lies in characterizing the deformation response characteristics of the soil under actual engineering conditions (constrained by the surrounding soil), providing necessary mechanical parameter support for accurately calculating the vertical heave displacement at the landslide front.

[0052] Specifically, the Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of triaxial compression are substituted into the following calculation formula to determine the constraint modulus of the capping layer. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0053] In the formula, The capping layer is constrained by modulus; Young's modulus for triaxial compression; It is Poisson's ratio.

[0054] It should be noted that the shear band confinement modulus characterizes the deformation resistance of the landslide shear band soil under lateral confinement conditions, reflecting the mechanical stiffness of the shear band soil. It can be compared with... M c The empirical ratio is used for estimation; the shear zone thickness refers to the vertical thickness of the soil layer in the landslide body where concentrated shear deformation occurs, which is the main area where landslide deformation occurs and can be obtained by borehole observation; the overburden thickness represents the thickness of the stable soil layer covering the shear zone, and its existence plays a spatial constraint role on the lower shear deformation. The greater the thickness, the more significant the constraint effect on uplift deformation, which can be determined by measurement through exploration profiles; these parameters can accurately determine the geometric correction coefficient of the shear zone thickness, which quantifies the modulation effect of geological structure characteristics on vertical uplift displacement, realizes the accurate quantification of the spatial constraint effect during the uplift deformation process at the landslide front, and provides key structural parameter correction for the dynamic uplift displacement prediction model; specifically, the geometric correction coefficient of the shear zone thickness is determined by substituting the overburden constraint modulus, shear zone constraint modulus, shear zone thickness, and overburden thickness into the following calculation formula, which is:

[0055] In the formula, The shear band constraint modulus; The thickness of the shear band; The thickness of the coating layer; This is the geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness.

[0056] Furthermore, in one embodiment, before the step of determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, shear band thickness geometric correction factor, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor, the method further includes: The hydraulic correction coefficient is determined based on the instantaneous slip zone seepage gradient and preset field experience values.

[0057] In this exemplary embodiment, the preset field experience value is a dimensionless empirical coefficient, which can be determined through field calibration based on the soil characteristics, historical monitoring data, and engineering experience of the specific landslide site, and is not limited here. The instantaneous slip zone seepage gradient represents the instantaneous hydraulic gradient of groundwater flow in the landslide shear zone, directly characterizing the real-time influence of seepage on the effective stress of the soil. The hydraulic correction coefficient can be determined through the above two parameters, serving as a key correction factor for quantifying the influence of hydrodynamic conditions on the uplift displacement at the landslide front, realizing the accurate quantification of the water-mechanical coupling effect at the landslide front, and providing a scientific basis for improving the accuracy and timeliness of uplift crack prediction.

[0058] Specifically, the hydraulic correction coefficient is determined by substituting the instantaneous slip zone seepage gradient and the preset field experience value into the following calculation formula:

[0059] In the formula, For instantaneous slip zone seepage gradient; Preset on-site experience values; This is the hydraulic correction factor.

[0060] Specific implementation examples are given below: Reference Figure 7 As shown, the landslide at the Da M Bridge, a typical unstable old landslide, is adjacent to the crisscrossing highways C, D, E, and F, connecting it to distant counties A and B via these major transportation routes. The development of bulging cracks at its leading edge directly affects the safety of the bridge structure and the operational stability of the reservoir area. (Refer to...) Figure 8As shown by the red dashed line, the landslide has a "chair-shaped" plan view, with its leading edge bordering the river at an elevation of approximately 750m and its trailing edge at an elevation of 880m. The landslide mass is 8-10m thick, with a volume of approximately 468,000 m³. The main sliding direction is SW80°. The lithology is mainly colluvial gravelly soil, belonging to a medium-to-high permeability medium, which is prone to deformation and instability under the coupled effects of reservoir water level fluctuations, rainfall, and earthquakes. This report adopts a dual-criteria system of "mechanical instability criterion + dynamic uplift displacement criterion," and based on field investigation, laboratory tests, and real-time monitoring data, systematically conducts calculations to predict the uplift cracks at the leading edge of the landslide, providing a scientific basis for disaster early warning and engineering protection.

[0061] Regarding the physical and mechanical parameters, the natural unit weight of the sliding body is taken as 19.8 kN / m3, the saturated unit weight as 23 kN / m3, and the effective unit weight as 13.2 kN / m3; the effective cohesion under saturated conditions is 36.44 kPa, and the effective internal friction angle is 31.70°, all of which are taken from the results of the indoor medium-sized direct shear test; the maximum shear dilatation angle is taken as the corrected value of 25° for the medium-dense state of the gravelly soil, and the stress sensitivity coefficient of the shear dilatation angle is taken as the empirical value of 0.3. In the geometric and correction parameters, the height of the leading edge wedge and the thickness of the overburden are both taken as the average thickness of the landslide body of 9m, the thickness of the shear zone is taken as the median value of 0.3m in the empirical range of gravel landslides, and the reference thickness is 8m; the thickness sensitivity coefficient is 0.2, the overburden constraint modulus is converted to 107.69MPa using Young's modulus of 80MPa and Poisson's ratio of 0.3, the shear zone constraint modulus is taken as 64.61MPa corresponding to Mb / Mc=0.6, the geometric correction coefficient is calculated to be 0.947, and the hydraulic correction coefficient is determined to be 0.25 based on the seepage gradient of 0.2. Regarding stress and monitoring parameters, the total stress under natural conditions is 178.2 kPa, the natural pore water pressure is 29.4 kPa, and the initial effective stress is 148.8 kPa. Under the 825 m water storage condition, the real-time total stress is 178.2 kPa, the real-time pore water pressure is 88.2 kPa, and the real-time effective stress is 90 kPa. The horizontal shear displacement is set to 150 mm for the water storage condition, 180 mm for the water storage + rainstorm condition, and 220 kPa for the water storage + rainstorm + earthquake condition. The critical heave displacement is taken as the correction value of 30 mm corresponding to the tensile strength of the gravelly soil. Among the additional load parameters, the seepage hydrodynamic force is calculated to be 733056 kN based on the effective seepage volume of 374400 m3 and the seepage gradient of 0.2. The additional earthquake thrust is calculated to be 2779920 kN based on the horizontal equivalent seismic coefficient of 0.3 and the weight of the sliding body of 9266400 kN.

[0062] The mechanical instability criterion is calculated using Rankine's passive earth pressure theory, with the passive earth pressure coefficient... The calculation is as follows:

[0063] Passive earth pressure limit (Unit width) is:

[0064] Active thrust The calculation result (unit width) is: Water storage conditions:

[0065] Under the conditions of water storage + heavy rainfall, the seepage gradient increases to 0.25, and the thrust per unit length increases to approximately 20705.36 kPa. Under the conditions of water storage + heavy rainfall + earthquake, the thrust per unit length reaches 29427.28 kPa after the additional earthquake thrust. All three conditions meet the mechanical instability conditions, indicating that the leading edge soil has entered a plastic yielding state. Dynamic uplift displacement calculation. Calculations based on dynamic formulas that consider effective stress corrections, geometric corrections, and hydraulic corrections:

[0066] The calculation results for each working condition are as follows: Water storage conditions: Real-time effective stress Dynamic shear dilatation angle Horizontal shear displacement The calculated uplift displacement .

[0067] Water storage + rainstorm conditions: Real-time effective stress Dynamic shear dilatation angle Horizontal shear displacement The calculated uplift displacement .

[0068] Water storage + rainstorm + earthquake conditions: Real-time effective stress Dynamic shear dilatation angle Horizontal shear displacement The calculated uplift displacement .

[0069] The critical uplift displacement is taken as: The comparison shows that the displacement did not reach the critical value under the water storage condition; the displacement was close to the critical value under the water storage + rainstorm condition; and the displacement exceeded the critical value under the water storage + rainstorm + earthquake condition, thus meeting the deformation criterion requirements.

[0070] In summary, the development of bulging cracks at the leading edge of the landslide at the Da M Bridge is controlled by the working conditions and exhibits significant graded response characteristics. Under the 825m water storage condition, although the mechanical instability conditions are met at the leading edge of the landslide, the dynamic uplift displacement has not reached the critical value, showing only slight bulging without obvious bulging crack development. Under the water storage + rainstorm condition, the intensified seepage leads to a decrease in effective stress, and the uplift displacement approaches the critical value. Local bulging cracks appear at the leading edge but do not form a continuous crack, which is highly consistent with the crack deformation characteristics observed in the front part during the field investigation. Under the water storage + rainstorm + earthquake condition, both mechanical instability and deformation conditions are met, and it is predicted that continuous bulging cracks will develop at the leading edge, manifested as longitudinal radial cracks along the sliding direction and transverse arc-shaped cracks perpendicular to the sliding direction.

[0071] It should be understood that this prediction verifies the applicability and accuracy of the "mechanics-deformation dual criterion" system in landslides on the banks of gravel reservoirs. The calculation results can provide precise technical support for disaster classification and early warning of landslides near the Da M Bridge and for targeted engineering protection design. It also has reference value for predicting the expansion cracks at the leading edge of similar landslides in reservoir areas.

[0072] Secondly, embodiments of this application also provide a leading edge bulging crack prediction system, the leading edge bulging crack prediction system comprising: The first processing module is used to determine the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust, wherein the additional thrust is the thrust generated by the external dynamic disturbance. The second processing module is used to determine the target vertical heave displacement when the detected active thrust is not less than the passive earth pressure limit, based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction coefficient of shear band thickness, hydraulic correction coefficient, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The third processing module is used to determine the prediction result of the leading edge bulging crack based on the target vertical bulging displacement and the predicted vertical bulging displacement.

[0073] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the first processing module is specifically used for: Substituting the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust into the following calculation formula, we obtain the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge:

[0074] In the formula, The weight of the sliding body; The inclination angle of the sliding surface; For seepage hydrodynamics; To provide additional thrust; This is the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge.

[0075] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the second processing module is specifically used for: The dynamic dilatation angle function is determined based on the maximum dilatation angle, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The target vertical bulge displacement is determined based on the dynamic dilatation angle function, horizontal shear displacement, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, and hydraulic correction factor.

[0076] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the second processing module is specifically used for: The expression for the dynamic shear dilatation angle function is:

[0077] In the formula, This is the maximum shear dilatation angle; This is the initial effective stress; Let be the real-time effective stress at time t; This is the stress sensitivity coefficient of the shear dilatation angle; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function.

[0078] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the second processing module is specifically used for: The formula for calculating the vertical displacement of the target is:

[0079] In the formula, Let be the horizontal shear displacement at time t; This is the geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness; The hydraulic correction factor at time t; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function; Let t be the vertical displacement of the target bulge at time t.

[0080] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the second processing module is specifically used for: The constraint modulus of the capping layer was determined based on Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of triaxial compression. The geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness is determined based on the capping layer constraint modulus, the shear band constraint modulus, the shear band thickness, and the capping layer thickness.

[0081] Furthermore, in one embodiment, the second processing module is specifically used for: The hydraulic correction coefficient is determined based on the instantaneous slip zone seepage gradient and preset field experience values.

[0082] This application identifies the main driving force influencing the formation of uplift cracks at the leading edge of a landslide by considering the weight of the landslide body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, seepage hydrodynamics, and additional thrust. Specifically, it defines the active thrust of the landslide body on the leading edge. When the active thrust is detected to be no less than the passive earth pressure limit, it indicates that the soil at the leading edge is subjected to sufficient thrust, potentially leading to uplift or crack formation. The application then comprehensively calculates the following parameters: horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction coefficient for shear zone thickness (which quantifies the influence of different geological structures on uplift displacement and can adapt to landslides of varying thicknesses), hydraulic correction coefficient (which accurately reflects the weakening effect of seepage on the effective stress and shear strength of the soil), initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The target vertical uplift displacement is determined; based on the magnitude relationship between the target vertical uplift displacement and the predicted vertical uplift displacement, the prediction result of the leading edge bulging crack is determined; this application adopts a prediction mechanism of "mechanical-deformation dual criteria", which not only avoids the problem of missed alarms caused by the inability of a single mechanical criterion to reflect the actual deformation process, but also overcomes the false alarm phenomenon caused by the single displacement threshold judgment ignoring mechanical conditions. It realizes the organic unity of the discrimination and prediction of the mechanical conditions for the formation of bulging cracks, and significantly improves the prediction accuracy; and enhances the adaptability under different geological conditions, hydrological environment and external loads through multi-factor coupling parameters, fundamentally solving the technical problems of insufficient accuracy and poor applicability in the existing technology.

[0083] The functions of each module in the aforementioned leading edge bulging crack prediction system correspond to the steps in the aforementioned leading edge bulging crack prediction method embodiment, and their functions and implementation processes will not be described in detail here.

[0084] Thirdly, embodiments of this application provide a leading edge bulging crack prediction device, which can be a personal computer (PC), laptop computer, server, or other device with data processing capabilities.

[0085] Reference Figure 9 , Figure 9 This is a schematic diagram of the hardware structure of the leading edge bulging crack prediction device involved in the embodiments of this application. In the embodiments of this application, the leading edge bulging crack prediction device may include a processor, a memory, a communication interface, and a communication bus.

[0086] The communication bus can be of any type and is used to interconnect the processor, memory, and communication interface.

[0087] The communication interface includes input / output (I / O) interfaces, physical interfaces, and logical interfaces used for interconnecting devices within the leading-edge bulging crack prediction equipment, as well as interfaces used for interconnecting the leading-edge bulging crack prediction equipment with other devices (such as other computing devices or user equipment). Physical interfaces can be Ethernet interfaces, fiber optic interfaces, ATM interfaces, etc.; user equipment can be displays, keyboards, etc.

[0088] Memory can be various types of storage media, such as random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), non-volatile RAM (NVRAM), flash memory, optical storage, hard disk, programmable ROM (PROM), erasable PROM (EPROM), electrically erasable PROM (EEPROM), etc.

[0089] The processor can be a general-purpose processor, which can call the leading edge bulging crack prediction program stored in the memory and execute the leading edge bulging crack prediction method provided in the embodiments of this application. For example, the general-purpose processor can be a central processing unit (CPU). The method executed when the leading edge bulging crack prediction program is called can be referred to in the various embodiments of the leading edge bulging crack prediction method of this application, and will not be repeated here.

[0090] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 9 The hardware structure shown does not constitute a limitation of this application and may include more or fewer components than shown, or combine certain components, or have different component arrangements.

[0091] Fourthly, embodiments of this application also provide a readable storage medium.

[0092] This application has a readable storage medium storing a leading edge bulge crack prediction program, wherein when the leading edge bulge crack prediction program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the leading edge bulge crack prediction method as described above.

[0093] The method implemented when the leading edge bulging crack prediction procedure is executed can be referred to in various embodiments of the leading edge bulging crack prediction method of this application, and will not be repeated here.

[0094] The terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, in the specification and accompanying drawings of this application are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion. For example, a process, method, system, product, or apparatus that includes a series of steps or units is not limited to the steps or units listed, but may optionally include steps or units not listed, or may optionally include other steps or units inherent to such process, method, product, or apparatus. The terms "first," "second," and "third," etc., are used to distinguish different objects, etc., and do not indicate a sequence, nor do they limit "first," "second," and "third" to different types.

[0095] In the description of the embodiments of this application, terms such as "exemplary," "for example," or "for instance" are used to indicate examples, illustrations, or explanations. Any embodiment or design described as "exemplary," "for example," or "for instance" in the embodiments of this application should not be construed as being more preferred or advantageous than other embodiments or designs. Specifically, the use of terms such as "exemplary," "for example," or "for instance" is intended to present the relevant concepts in a concrete manner.

[0096] In the description of the embodiments of this application, unless otherwise stated, " / " means "or". For example, A / B can mean A or B. The "and / or" in the text is merely a description of the relationship between related objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can mean: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. In addition, in the description of the embodiments of this application, "multiple" means two or more.

[0097] In some processes described in the embodiments of this application, multiple operations or steps are included in a specific order. However, it should be understood that these operations or steps may not be executed in the order they appear in the embodiments of this application, or they may be executed in parallel. The sequence number of the operation is only used to distinguish different operations, and the sequence number itself does not represent any execution order. In addition, these processes may include more or fewer operations, and these operations or steps may be executed sequentially or in parallel, and these operations or steps may be combined.

[0098] It should be noted that the sequence numbers of the embodiments in this application are for descriptive purposes only and do not represent the superiority or inferiority of the embodiments.

[0099] Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the methods of the above embodiments can be implemented by means of software plus necessary general-purpose hardware platforms. Of course, they can also be implemented by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this application, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM / RAM, magnetic disk, optical disk) as described above, and includes several instructions to cause a terminal device to execute the methods described in the various embodiments of this application.

[0100] The above are merely preferred embodiments of this application and do not limit the patent scope of this application. Any equivalent structural or procedural transformations made using the content of this application's specification and drawings, or direct or indirect applications in other related technical fields, are similarly included within the patent protection scope of this application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks, characterized in that, The method for predicting leading edge bulging cracks includes: The active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge is determined based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust, wherein the additional thrust is the thrust generated by the external dynamic disturbance. When the active thrust is detected to be no less than the passive earth pressure limit, the target vertical heave displacement is determined based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear zone thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor. The prediction results of the leading edge bulging crack were determined based on the target vertical bulging displacement and the predicted vertical bulging displacement.

2. The method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust includes: Substituting the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust into the following calculation formula, we obtain the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge: In the formula, The weight of the sliding body; The inclination angle of the sliding surface; For seepage hydrodynamics; For additional thrust; This is the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge.

3. The method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of the target vertical bulge displacement based on horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor includes: The dynamic dilatation angle function is determined based on the maximum dilatation angle, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The target vertical bulge displacement is determined based on the dynamic dilatation angle function, horizontal shear displacement, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, and hydraulic correction factor.

4. The method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The expression for the dynamic shear dilatation angle function is: In the formula, This is the maximum shear dilatation angle; This is the initial effective stress; Let be the real-time effective stress at time t; This is the stress sensitivity coefficient of the shear dilatation angle; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function.

5. The method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The formula for calculating the vertical displacement of the target is: In the formula, Let be the horizontal shear displacement at time t; This is the geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness; The hydraulic correction factor at time t; This is a dynamic shear dilatation angle function; Let t be the vertical displacement of the target bulge at time t.

6. The method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Before the step of determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor, the method further includes: The constraint modulus of the capping layer was determined based on Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of triaxial compression. The geometric correction factor for the shear band thickness is determined based on the capping layer constraint modulus, the shear band constraint modulus, the shear band thickness, and the capping layer thickness.

7. The method for predicting leading-edge bulging cracks as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Before the step of determining the target vertical bulge displacement based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction factor for shear band thickness, hydraulic correction factor, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity factor, the method further includes: The hydraulic correction coefficient is determined based on the instantaneous slip zone seepage gradient and preset field experience values.

8. A leading edge bulge crack prediction system, characterized in that, The leading edge bulge crack prediction system includes: The first processing module is used to determine the active thrust of the sliding body on the leading edge based on the weight of the sliding body, the inclination angle of the sliding surface, the seepage hydrodynamic force, and the additional thrust, wherein the additional thrust is the thrust generated by the external dynamic disturbance. The second processing module is used to determine the target vertical heave displacement when the detected active thrust is not less than the passive earth pressure limit, based on the horizontal shear displacement, maximum dilatation angle, geometric correction coefficient of shear band thickness, hydraulic correction coefficient, initial effective stress, real-time effective stress, and dilatation angle stress sensitivity coefficient. The third processing module is used to determine the prediction result of the leading edge bulging crack based on the target vertical bulging displacement and the predicted vertical bulging displacement.

9. A device for predicting leading edge bulge cracks, characterized in that, The leading edge bulge crack prediction device includes a processor, a memory, and a leading edge bulge crack prediction program stored in the memory and executable by the processor, wherein when the leading edge bulge crack prediction program is executed by the processor, it implements the steps of the leading edge bulge crack prediction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores a leading edge bulge crack prediction program, wherein when the leading edge bulge crack prediction program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the leading edge bulge crack prediction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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