Statistical method for marine ecological product quantity based on system dynamics

Abstract

This invention discloses a method for statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics. It optimizes marine ecological product indicators by running a system dynamics model and then classifies and statistically analyzes the physical quantities of the optimized indicators. The system dynamics model is constructed through the following steps: defining statistical variables for the physical quantity of marine ecological products; constructing a multi-level hierarchical structure model based on these variables; assigning functional relationships to variables with direct correlations in the multi-level hierarchical structure model; and constructing a total social welfare utility function to weigh the various marine ecological product indicators. This application can describe the inherent laws and dynamic responses between the marine biophysical environment and the socio-economic environment from a dynamic feedback and multi-variable interaction perspective, thereby visually demonstrating the statistical process of the physical quantity of marine ecological products.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of physical oceanography, and more specifically to a statistical method for the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics. Specifically, it is a method that integrates multiple technologies such as system dynamics models, marine hydro-meteorological models, and trade-off models to utilize multi-source data to quantify and statistically analyze marine ecological protection compensation and marine ecological damage compensation, primarily serving the dynamic assessment of marine ecological security. Background Technology

[0002] Marine ecological products are defined as the general term for products and services that can meet human production and life needs, formed under the combined action of natural forces and human beings.

[0003] Currently, the physical quantity statistics of marine ecological products lack research from the perspective of dynamic interaction and feedback between the marine biophysical environment and the economy and society. The physical quantity statistics technology of marine ecological products alone cannot reflect the dynamic relationship between the marine ecosystem and the economy and society. That is, the field of ecology focuses on the structure, process and function of the marine ecosystem, while the field of economics focuses on the marine economic industry and human benefits. The ecological and economic attributes of the two are not "systematically" integrated.

[0004] Meanwhile, the physical quantity statistical indicators lack a balance and coordination based on the scope and condition of the marine ecosystem: the physical quantity statistical indicators of marine ecological products have evaluation indicator systems based on the function of the marine ecosystem, and also classify them from the perspective of public goods attributes from an economic point of view. There is insufficient modeling research on the trade-offs and choices of a "package" of marine ecological products under specific spatiotemporal differences.

[0005] In addition, there is a lack of spatiotemporal dynamic statistics on physical quantity indicators: the spatial distribution of marine ecological products is quantified by geographic information models such as InVEST, but there is a lack of marine ecological product value assessment models that comprehensively consider changes in time and space.

[0006] Therefore, in summary, how to solve the above-mentioned shortcomings is a problem that urgently needs to be addressed by those skilled in the art. Summary of the Invention

[0007] In view of the above problems, the present invention is proposed to provide a system dynamics-based method for statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products, which overcomes or at least partially solves the above problems.

[0008] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solution:

[0009] A method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics, comprising: The dynamic model of the operating system is used to optimize the marine ecological product indicators, and the physical quantities of the optimized marine ecological product indicators are classified and statistically analyzed. The system dynamics model is constructed through the following steps: Define statistical variables for the physical quantity of marine ecological products, including marine biophysical environmental variables and the quantity of marine ecological products. Construct a multi-level hierarchical structure model based on the aforementioned variable indicators; In the multi-level hierarchical structure model, variables with direct relationships are assigned functional relationships, and a total social welfare utility function is constructed to weigh various marine ecological product indicators.

[0010] Preferably, the marine biophysical environmental variables include at least one of the following variables: marine ecosystem range, marine ecological zoning, water body, marine biomass, seabed sediment, seabed topography, marine ecosystem status, ecological function, environmental quality, biodiversity, and ecological stress.

[0011] Preferably, the quantity of marine ecological products includes the quantity of supply-type marine ecological products, the quantity of regulation-type marine ecological products, and the quantity of cultural marine ecological products.

[0012] Preferably, a multi-level hierarchical structure model is constructed based on the aforementioned variable indicators, including: An adjacency matrix is ​​constructed based on the aforementioned variable indicators. The adjacency matrix is ​​used to characterize whether there is a direct influence relationship between any two variables. The reachability matrix is ​​calculated based on the adjacency matrix, and the reachability matrix is ​​used to characterize whether there is a connection path between any two variables; The variable indicators are hierarchically processed based on the reachability matrix to construct the multi-level hierarchical structure model.

[0013] Preferably, functional relationships are assigned to variables with direct correlations in the multi-level hierarchical structure model, including: Based on variables such as ecological function, environmental quality, ecological pressure, and biodiversity, a weighted calculation is used to obtain an assessment value of the marine ecosystem status. Based on the area variables of each marine ecological zone, the assessment value of the marine ecosystem range is obtained by summing up the data.

[0014] Preferably, the total social welfare utility function is:

[0015] In the formula, Represents the total utility of social welfare. Indicates time, This represents the utility of marine ecological products at time t. The discount rate represents future utility, and is usually greater than 0. The closer it is to 0, the closer the future utility is to the present utility. The formula is as follows:

[0016] In the formula, This represents the curvature parameter of the utility function. The marine ecological product index at time t is represented as:

[0017] in, The denoting factor represents the trade-off and synergy approach, F represents the marine ecosystem extent assessment value, and C represents the marine ecosystem status assessment value.

[0018] Preferably, the trade-off synergy method includes at least one of the following methods: multi-objective decision analysis, ecosystem supply and demand balance model, Pearson correlation analysis, and Spearman correlation analysis.

[0019] As a preferred approach, the physical quantities of the optimized marine ecological product indicators are classified and statistically analyzed, including: For marine ecological products that are supplied or cultural, statistical survey methods are used to obtain physical quantities. For regulatory marine ecological products, their physical quantity is estimated using a natural science model corresponding to the regulatory function.

[0020] Preferably, the regulating marine ecological products include at least one of climate regulation products, air conditioning products, coastal protection products, and water purification products; the natural science model includes at least one of carbon sequestration and oxygen release model, evapotranspiration model, pollutant purification model, sea level impact assessment model, and marine disaster assessment model.

[0021] Preferably, the marine ecological products supplied include at least one of aquaculture products, wild-caught products, raw materials for aquatic product processing, raw materials for marine biomedicine, marine oil, and marine natural gas. The cultural marine ecological products mentioned above include at least one of the following: sightseeing tours, sports and leisure activities, cultural experiences, and science education.

[0022] This invention provides a method for statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics. By constructing a multidisciplinary, cross-scale coupled technology for the trade-off and coordination of marine ecological products, it can overcome the limitations of static evaluation and describe the inherent laws and dynamic responses between the marine biophysical environment and the economy and society from the perspective of dynamic feedback and multivariate interaction, thereby visually displaying the statistical analysis process of the physical quantity of marine ecological products. Attached Figure Description

[0023] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without creative effort.

[0024] Figure 1 This is an overall path diagram for the statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products provided in this embodiment of the invention; Figure 2 A detailed flowchart for the statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products is provided in this embodiment of the invention; Figure 3 This is a diagram of a multi-level hierarchical structure model provided in the embodiments of the present invention; Figure 4 This is a simplified schematic diagram of the system flow chart provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0025] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0026] This invention discloses a method for statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics. The aim is to couple the marine biophysical environment and socio-economic subsystems across multiple time and space scales using a trade-off and synergy technique. This explicitly characterizes the relationships between system variables in the statistical model of the physical quantity of marine ecological products, constructing a dynamic feedback, multi-variable interactive marine ecological product value assessment model. Simultaneously, through multi-objective synergy technology, it quantitatively expresses the Pareto steady state of marine ecosystem protection and socio-economic development, weighing and selecting the expected types of marine ecological products, thereby achieving unified and standardized statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products.

[0027] In one specific embodiment, the method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics involves optimizing marine ecological product indicators by running a system dynamics model, and then classifying and statistically analyzing the physical quantities of the optimized marine ecological product indicators. The process is described below. Figure 1 First, the marine biophysical environment is regarded as a marine ecosystem at the level of physical quantity, characterized by the scope and condition of the marine ecosystem. Marine ecological products are generated through complex ecosystem processes, and then enter into the statistical scope of the physical quantity of marine ecological products.

[0028] In this embodiment, the system dynamics model is constructed through the following steps: Define statistical variables for the physical quantity of marine ecological products, including marine biophysical environmental variables and the quantity of marine ecological products. Construct a multi-level hierarchical structure model based on the aforementioned variable indicators; In the multi-level hierarchical structure model, variables with direct relationships are assigned functional relationships, and a total social welfare utility function is constructed to weigh various marine ecological product indicators.

[0029] For detailed flowcharts, please refer to Figure 2 It includes four parts: system boundary determination, logical relationship construction, functional relationship construction, and system simulation. Regarding the determination of system boundaries, in some embodiments, the system dynamics model includes two subsystems: a marine biophysical environment subsystem and a socio-economic subsystem. The indicators corresponding to the marine biophysical environment subsystem are marine biophysical environment variables, and the indicators corresponding to the socio-economic subsystem are the quantities of marine ecological products. The contents of these two variable indicators are shown in Table 1 below. Table 1

[0030] In some embodiments, based on the logical and causal relationships between the aforementioned variable indicators, a multi-level hierarchical structure model is constructed through matrix operations, and a model diagram is drawn; specific steps include: (1) Construct an adjacency matrix based on the variable indicators, the adjacency matrix being used to characterize whether there is a direct influence relationship between any two variables; In this embodiment, all variable indicators in Table 1 above are compared pairwise to determine whether there is a direct relationship between them. right If it has a direct impact, then in the matrix... Line number Fill in 1 if the column is empty, otherwise fill in 0; that is...

[0031] (2) Calculate the reachability matrix based on the adjacency matrix, which is used to characterize whether there is a connection path between any two variables; In this embodiment, Represents the identity matrix when it satisfies When conditions are met, the reachability matrix is ​​obtained, including the antecedent set. and reachable set .

[0032] (3) The variable indicators are hierarchically processed based on the reachability matrix to construct the multi-level hierarchical structure model.

[0033] Specifically, according to Following the principle of hierarchical processing of the reachability matrix, a multi-level ladder structure model for the statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products is established, and a diagram of the multi-level ladder structure model is drawn. For example... Figure 3 As shown.

[0034] Furthermore, in some embodiments, based on a multi-level hierarchical structure model of marine ecological product physical quantity statistics, functional relationships are assigned to variables with direct correlations, and a system flow diagram is drawn, as shown in the simplified diagram below. Figure 4 As shown.

[0035] The assigned functional relationships include: ①Based on variables such as ecological function, environmental quality, ecological stress, and biodiversity, a weighted calculation is used to obtain the assessment value of the marine ecosystem status; the formula is expressed as:

[0036] In the formula, This indicates the assessment value of the marine ecosystem status; This represents the comprehensive index of ecological function. This represents the comprehensive environmental quality index. This represents the comprehensive index of ecological pressure. This represents the comprehensive biodiversity index. , , , These represent the weights of ecological function, environmental quality, ecological pressure, and biodiversity in the comprehensive assessment.

[0037] in, Indicating ecological function Each evaluation indicator value, Indicating environmental quality Each evaluation indicator value, Indicating ecological pressure Each evaluation indicator value, The first indicative of biodiversity Each evaluation indicator value; Each corresponds to a weight for one of the evaluation indicators. In this embodiment... , , , as well as The entropy weight method is used to determine the weights, which involves calculating the entropy value and difference coefficient of each evaluation indicator data, and then deriving the weight of each indicator based on these two values. , , , .

[0038] ② Referring to the ecological zoning techniques in the "Marine Ecological Zoning (Trial Version)" and "Ecological Zoning of China's Coastal Waters" (T / CAOE 54-2023) issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources, primary zoning is carried out based on marine biomass. Secondary zoning is then conducted based on water body size, followed by tertiary zoning based on topography and geomorphology, combined with the regional heterogeneity of the seabed sediment. The marine ecosystem extent assessment value is obtained by summing the area variables of each marine ecological zone in the tertiary zoning results. The formula is expressed as:

[0039] in, Indicates the range of a marine ecosystem; Indicates the first The area of ​​each marine ecological zone.

[0040] Furthermore, a total social welfare utility function is constructed. In this embodiment, the goal is to balance the synergistic effects of marine ecological products with the objectives of value maximization and social equity, so that the development and utilization of marine ecological products can maximize the sum of current and future welfare. The formula is expressed as:

[0041] In the formula, Represents the total utility of social welfare. Indicates time, This represents the utility of marine ecological products at time t. The discount factor, referring to the discount rate provisions in standards such as "Technical Guidelines for Ecological and Environmental Damage Assessment: General Principles and Key Aspects Part 1: General Principles" (GB / T 39791.1—2020), is typically taken as 2-5%, and the formula is as follows:

[0042] In the formula, This represents the curvature parameter of the utility function. The marine ecological product index at time t is represented as:

[0043] in, The term "trade-off" generally refers to a synergistic approach, including multi-objective decision analysis, ecosystem supply and demand balance models, Pearson correlation analysis, or Spearman correlation analysis. F represents the marine ecosystem extent assessment value, and C represents the marine ecosystem status assessment value.

[0044] To optimize the above technical solution, the physical quantities of the optimized marine ecological product indicators are further classified and statistically analyzed. In one embodiment, a physical quantity assessment model is designed based on the types of marine ecological product indicators. The physical quantities of supply products and cultural products are to be obtained by statistical survey, while the physical quantities of regulation products are to be estimated by models such as carbon sequestration and oxygen release, evapotranspiration model and pollutant purification model. The classification indicators and physical quantity assessment methods of marine ecological products are shown in Table 2. Table 2

[0045] As a preferred approach, the model is simulated, its operating status is analyzed, and the effectiveness of the model is verified by referring to historical data. The model structure is then adjusted and the variable parameters are optimized.

[0046] Based on the same inventive concept, embodiments of the present invention also provide a system for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics, comprising: The system boundary determination module is used to define statistical variable indicators of the physical quantity of marine ecological products, including marine biophysical environmental variables and the quantity of marine ecological products. The logical relationship construction module is used to construct a multi-level hierarchical structure model based on the variable indicators; The function relationship construction module is used to assign functional relationships to variables with direct correlations in the multi-level hierarchical structure model, and to construct a total social welfare utility function to weigh various marine ecological product indicators. The simulation module is used to run the system dynamics model to optimize the marine ecological product indicators and to classify and statistically analyze the physical quantities of the optimized marine ecological product indicators.

[0047] The principles underlying the problems solved by the above modules are consistent with the steps in the aforementioned method for statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics. Therefore, the implementation of each module can be found in the implementation of the aforementioned method, and the repetitive parts will not be repeated.

[0048] Furthermore, in this application, another embodiment provides an electronic device, which includes one or more processors; a memory for storing one or more programs; when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the system dynamics-based method for statistical analysis of marine ecological products as described in any of the preceding claims.

[0049] Alternatively, a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when executed by a processor, the program implements the system dynamics-based method for the physical quantity statistics of marine ecological products as described in any of the preceding claims.

[0050] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with each embodiment focusing on its differences from other embodiments. Similar or identical parts between embodiments can be referred to interchangeably. For the apparatus disclosed in the embodiments, since they correspond to the methods disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple; relevant parts can be referred to the method section.

[0051] The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to make or use the invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Therefore, the invention is not to be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products based on system dynamics, characterized in that, The dynamic model of the operating system is used to optimize the marine ecological product indicators, and the physical quantities of the optimized marine ecological product indicators are classified and statistically analyzed. The system dynamics model is constructed through the following steps: Define statistical variables for the physical quantity of marine ecological products, including marine biophysical environmental variables and the quantity of marine ecological products. Construct a multi-level hierarchical structure model based on the aforementioned variable indicators; In the multi-level hierarchical structure model, variables with direct relationships are assigned functional relationships, and a total social welfare utility function is constructed to weigh various marine ecological product indicators.

2. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 1, characterized in that, The marine biophysical environmental variables include at least one of the following variables: marine ecosystem range, marine ecological zoning, water body, marine biomass, seabed sediment, seabed topography, marine ecosystem status, ecological function, environmental quality, biodiversity, and ecological stress.

3. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 1, characterized in that, The quantity of marine ecological products includes the quantity of supply-type marine ecological products, the quantity of regulation-type marine ecological products, and the quantity of cultural marine ecological products.

4. The method for statistical analysis of the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 1, characterized in that, A multi-level hierarchical structure model is constructed based on the aforementioned variable indicators, including: An adjacency matrix is ​​constructed based on the aforementioned variable indicators. The adjacency matrix is ​​used to characterize whether there is a direct influence relationship between any two variables. The reachability matrix is ​​calculated based on the adjacency matrix, and the reachability matrix is ​​used to characterize whether there is a connection path between any two variables; The variable indicators are hierarchically processed based on the reachability matrix to construct the multi-level hierarchical structure model.

5. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 1, characterized in that, Assigning functional relationships to variables with direct correlations in the multi-level hierarchical structure model, including: Based on variables such as ecological function, environmental quality, ecological pressure, and biodiversity, a weighted calculation is used to obtain an assessment value of the marine ecosystem status. Based on the area variables of each marine ecological zone, the assessment value of the marine ecosystem range is obtained by summing up the data.

6. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 1 or 5, characterized in that, The total utility function for social welfare is: In the formula, Represents the total utility of social welfare. Indicates time, This represents the utility of marine ecological products at time t. The discount rate for future utility is expressed by the formula: In the formula, This represents the curvature parameter of the utility function. The marine ecological product index at time t is represented as: in, The denoting factor represents the trade-off and synergy approach, F represents the marine ecosystem extent assessment value, and C represents the marine ecosystem status assessment value.

7. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 6, characterized in that, The trade-off synergy method includes at least one of the following methods: multi-objective decision analysis, ecosystem supply and demand balance model, Pearson correlation analysis, and Spearman correlation analysis.

8. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 1, characterized in that, The physical quantities of the optimized marine ecological product indicators are classified and statistically analyzed, including: For marine ecological products that are supplied or cultural, statistical survey methods are used to obtain physical quantities. For regulatory marine ecological products, their physical quantity is estimated using a natural science model corresponding to the regulatory function.

9. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 8, characterized in that, The aforementioned regulatory marine ecological products include at least one of climate regulation products, air conditioning products, coastal protection products, and water purification products; the aforementioned natural science models include at least one of carbon sequestration and oxygen release models, evapotranspiration models, pollutant purification models, sea level impact assessment models, and marine disaster assessment models.

10. The method for statistically analyzing the physical quantity of marine ecological products according to claim 8, characterized in that, The supplied marine ecological products include at least one of aquaculture products, wild-caught products, raw materials for aquatic product processing, raw materials for marine biomedicine, marine oil, and marine natural gas. The cultural marine ecological products mentioned above include at least one of the following: sightseeing tours, sports and leisure activities, cultural experiences, and science education.

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