A multi-element electric energy alternative potential prediction method

Abstract

The present application belongs to the technical field of electric energy alternative planning, and relates to a multi-element electric energy alternative potential prediction method. The evaluation index weight matrix of the electric energy alternative equipment is obtained by weighting the evaluation index, and is input into the reverse cloud generator to obtain the uncertain combination weight cloud of the evaluation index. The electric energy alternative score is obtained based on the evaluation index and the uncertain combination weight cloud thereof. The carbon emission factor of the power grid in the region to be planned is calculated based on the distributed photovoltaic power generation capacity and the total power consumption of the region to be planned, and the carbon emission model of the electric energy alternative equipment is constructed to predict the carbon emission. The electric energy alternative amount, the electric energy alternative score, the carbon emission, the per capita GDP value of the region to be planned, the coal-to-electricity price ratio, the oil-to-electricity price ratio, the electrification index, the ratio of carbon emission to total GDP, and the distributed photovoltaic penetration rate of the electric energy alternative equipment are input into the MGM(1,m,N) model based on time lag, and the upper limit and the lower limit of the electric energy alternative amount of the electric energy alternative equipment are output.

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