A water injection earthquake-inducing risk prediction and prevention method based on hydraulic diffusion characteristics

By monitoring the hydraulic diffusion characteristics of faults, calculating the diffusion lag time and fluid overpressure ratio, and inverting the true contact area ratio of faults, the problem of difficulty in identifying the sealing state of faults using traditional techniques has been solved, enabling accurate prediction and prevention of injection-induced earthquakes.

CN122449573APending Publication Date: 2026-07-24SHAOXING UNIVERSITY
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2026-06-11
Publication Date
2026-07-24

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies lack monitoring methods that can identify fault sealing conditions and quantify overpressure risks in situ. Traditional pressure monitoring cannot distinguish the causes of pressure increases, making it difficult to accurately warn and control high-risk faults.

Method used

By simultaneously monitoring the evolution of upstream and downstream pore pressure through on-site fluid injection tests, hydraulic diffusion response data is obtained, diffusion lag time and fluid overpressure ratio are calculated, the true contact area ratio of the fault is inverted, and these are then incorporated into a modified seismic moment scaling law model to achieve accurate prediction of the maximum seismic moment of injection-induced earthquakes.

Benefits of technology

It achieves in-situ, non-destructive, and low-cost characterization of fault contact state, improves the prediction accuracy of the maximum seismic moment of injection-induced earthquakes, solves the bias problem of traditional models, and is suitable for field monitoring and control of deep reservoirs.

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Abstract

The present application belongs to the technical field of rock mechanics and induced earthquake prediction, and particularly relates to a water injection induced earthquake risk prediction and prevention method based on hydraulic diffusion characteristics, comprising: obtaining basic information of a target fault; based on the basic information, injecting fluid upstream of the target fault and synchronously monitoring pore pressure evolution downstream to obtain hydraulic diffusion response data of the target fault; according to the time difference of the upstream and downstream pore pressures and the critical pressure characteristics in the hydraulic diffusion response data, calculating diffusion lag time and fluid overpressure ratio; according to the quantitative correlation of the diffusion lag time and the fluid overpressure ratio with the interface topography of the target fault, inversely obtaining the real contact area ratio of the target fault; and bringing the real contact area ratio into a modified earthquake moment scale law prediction model to obtain the maximum earthquake moment. The present application does not need to drill for coring and indoor testing, can realize in-situ, non-destructive and low-cost characterization of the fault contact state, and at the same time solves the prediction deviation problem caused by the homogeneity assumption of the traditional earthquake moment model.
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