A method and system for quickly estimating carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at a plot level

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of piece area level city renewal carbon emission reduction potential fast estimation method and system, the method includes: S1: piece area basic information acquisition and unit division, acquisition piece area building and green space basic information, respectively divide building reduction estimation unit and green carbon sink estimation unit;S2: construct hierarchical carbon emission benchmark database, based on large sample statistics and national standard constructs carbon emission benchmark database, corresponding database is three progressive architecture, include macro city / region observation calibration layer, middle view benchmark layer, influence factor micro correction layer;S3: piece area carbon emission potential fast calculation, respectively calculate building total reduction and green net carbon sink increment before and after updating, superimposed contiguous collaborative reduction, obtain piece area total carbon emission reduction potential;S4: multi-scenario fast comparison, for different scenarios parameter adjustment, real-time output carbon emission reduction potential estimation result under different scenarios and carry out comparison;S5: generate double-dimension visual carbon emission reduction potential result and report and output.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application belongs to the interdisciplinary technical fields of urban planning, low-carbon cities and carbon accounting, and in particular relates to a method and system for rapid estimation of carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level. Background Technology

[0002] Under the dual carbon objectives, low-carbon requirements have become a rigid constraint on urban renewal. However, current carbon accounting technologies suffer from significant scale limitations and efficiency deficiencies, making them unsuitable for the pre-planning decision-making needs of contiguous urban renewal at the district level. (1) Lack of scale adaptability: Existing carbon accounting methods are divided into two categories. One is city / region level macro estimation, which can only obtain the city / region's extensive emission data and cannot be implemented in the planning scheme of specific areas. The other is single-project level detailed accounting, which relies on detailed building design, construction plan, energy consumption parameters and other later results, and cannot support the scheme decision in the early stage of planning. There is a lack of meso-scale estimation methods that are adapted to the contiguous renewal of areas.

[0003] (2) Insufficient support for early decision-making: The detailed accounting of a single project requires waiting for the results of multiple stages such as planning schemes, architectural design, and carbon inventory, which takes a long time and cannot be adapted to the work rhythm of "rapid iteration of multiple schemes and real-time comparison" in the early stage of planning. As a result, the low-carbon requirements can only be passively verified in the later stage of the scheme and cannot be brought forward to the planning decision-making stage.

[0004] (3) The threshold for use is too high: Existing carbon accounting tools require professional carbon accounting personnel to operate, and require them to master professional knowledge such as the whole life cycle accounting method and emission factor selection. Planners cannot use them directly, which leads to the disconnect between low-carbon planning and spatial planning, and low-carbon requirements are difficult to implement in spatial plans.

[0005] (4) The synergistic effect of the area is not considered: the existing methods can only calculate the cost of a single plot of land independently, which cannot reflect the synergistic emission reduction effect brought about by the unified recycling of building materials, the joint construction of energy infrastructure, and centralized energy supply in the contiguous renewal, and generally underestimates the overall emission reduction potential of the area.

[0006] Currently, there is no rapid estimation technology specifically designed for urban renewal at the district level. There is an urgent need to develop an estimation method and system that balances speed, accuracy, and ease of use to support low-carbon decision-making in the early stages of planning. Summary of the Invention

[0007] The purpose of this application is to: overcome the problems of existing technology, disclose a rapid estimation method and system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level, realize rapid assessment of carbon emission potential in contiguous renewal scenarios; significantly improve estimation efficiency, adapt to the needs of rapid comparison of multiple schemes in the early stage of planning; lower the threshold for use, requiring no professional carbon accounting knowledge, and planners can operate and use it directly; incorporate the synergistic emission reduction effect of contiguous renewal, improve estimation accuracy, and meet the decision-making requirements in the early stage of planning.

[0008] The objective of this application is achieved through the following technical solution: A rapid estimation method for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level, comprising: S1: Collection of basic information and division of units in the area. Collect basic information on buildings and green spaces in the area, and divide the building emission reduction estimation unit and the green space carbon sink estimation unit respectively. S2: Construct a hierarchical carbon emission benchmark database. Based on large-sample statistics and national standards, a carbon emission benchmark database is constructed. The corresponding database has a three-level progressive architecture, including a macro-city / regional calibration layer, a meso-level benchmark layer, and a micro-level correction layer for influencing factors. S3: Rapid calculation of the carbon emission potential of the area, calculate the total emission reduction of buildings and the net carbon sink increase of green space before and after renovation, and superimpose the coordinated emission reduction of the contiguous area to obtain the total carbon emission reduction potential of the area; S4: Rapid comparison of multiple scenarios, parameter adjustment for different scenarios, real-time output of carbon emission reduction potential estimation results under different scenarios and comparison; S5: Generate and output a two-dimensional visualization of carbon reduction potential results and reports.

[0009] According to a preferred embodiment, in step S1, the collected basic building information for the area includes: Basic attributes of the area: total land area, city, average age of buildings, and climate zone; Land use structure: the area and proportion of five core land uses: residential, industrial, commercial, public service, and green space; Updated model structure: Area proportions of the three models: demolition and reconstruction, renovation and expansion, and comprehensive renovation; Floor area ratio parameters: average floor area ratio and floor area ratio increase rate for various types of construction land; Low-carbon technology expectations: Expected application rates of photovoltaic coverage, prefabricated building ratio, sponge city compliance rate, and vertical greening rate; Infrastructure conditions: Whether it is connected to a centralized energy supply and reclaimed water system, and whether building material recycling is carried out in a unified manner.

[0010] According to a preferred embodiment, in step S1, the collected basic information on the green space area includes: Current total green space area, percentage of various types of green space including arbor forests / shrub forests / lawns / multi-layered green spaces of trees, shrubs and grasses / wetlands / vertical greening, green space quality grade, total green space area after planning, percentage of various types of green space area, percentage of native tree species, and planned area of ​​vertical greening.

[0011] According to a preferred embodiment, in step S1, the building emission reduction unit is divided into 12 categories: 3 types of renewal mode × 4 types of construction land; the green space carbon sink unit is divided into 6 types of green space.

[0012] According to a preferred embodiment, in step S2, The city / regional macro calibration layer is divided according to the dual dimensions of climate zone and city size, with pre-made corresponding calibration coefficients, and is applicable to both building and green space accounting. The meso-level benchmark layer includes a building emission reduction benchmark sub-database and a green space carbon sink benchmark sub-database, which are obtained based on large-sample statistics. The micro-correction layer includes building-related correction factors and green space-related correction factors, among which green space-related correction factors include green space quality correction and native tree species ratio correction.

[0013] According to a preferred embodiment, in step S3, the total carbon emission reduction potential is calculated using the logic of baseline value × area × correction factor × macroscopic calibration factor. The total carbon emission reduction potential includes three parts: total building emission reduction, net carbon sink increment of green space, and synergistic emission reduction, as shown below:

[0014] in, This represents the total emission reduction from buildings. This indicates the increase in net carbon sequestration of green spaces. This indicates the amount of emissions reduced collaboratively.

[0015] According to a preferred embodiment, in step S3... Total building emissions reduction This is the sum of emission reductions from several individual building units, where the emission reduction from a single building unit is:

[0016] In the formula: Let be the area of ​​the i-th building unit. This represents the baseline value for carbon emission reduction per unit area for the corresponding type. For macroscopic calibration coefficients, - Correction factors for Class 5 buildings; Total building emissions reduction for:

[0017] Where N represents the total number of buildings; Increase in net carbon sequestration of green spaces To calculate the difference in green space carbon sequestration before and after the update, it is expressed as:

[0018] In the formula: , These represent the area of ​​the j-th type of green space after the planning phase and the current status, respectively. This represents the annual carbon sequestration baseline per unit area for the corresponding type of green space. The correction factor for the corresponding green space is T, which is the standard operating period, taken as 30 years. Coordinated emission reduction The calculation, comprising two parts—building collaboration and green space collaboration—reflects the scale effect of contiguous urban renewal and is expressed as follows:

[0019] In the formula: The building coordination coefficient is taken as 5%-10%; The green space synergy coefficient is set at 3%-8% based on the ecological effects of contiguous green spaces.

[0020] According to a preferred embodiment, step S4 includes: Based on four preset scenarios: baseline scenario, low-carbon priority scenario, economic priority scenario, and balanced scenario, the system adjusts and updates parameters such as the proportion of update mode, low-carbon technology coverage, green space ratio, proportion of multi-layered green space, and increase in plot ratio. It updates the carbon emission reduction potential estimation results in real time, generates a multi-scenario comparison report, including a core indicator comparison table and radar chart, and outputs solution suggestions.

[0021] According to a preferred embodiment, the estimation results generated in step S5 include: Key Indicators Table: Total carbon reduction potential, building emission reduction, green space carbon sink increment, synergistic emission reduction, emission reduction per unit area, total emission reduction cost, average emission reduction cost, and emission reduction contribution ranking; Spatial distribution map: Generates a heat map of the overall carbon emission reduction potential of the area, overlaying the spatial distribution of building emission reduction and green space carbon sink, intuitively displaying key emission reduction areas.

[0022] On the other hand, this application also discloses: A rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential in urban renewal at the district level is provided, wherein the estimation method described above is used for estimation. The rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level includes: The basic information entry module is used to collect and enter basic information about the area. The hierarchical benchmark database module has a built-in three-level carbon emission benchmark database, which includes two sub-databases: building emission reduction and green space carbon sink. The rapid estimation calculation module is used to complete the calculation of all carbon emission reduction potential; The multi-scenario comparison module provides parameter adjustment functions, covering two core parameters: buildings and green spaces. It updates carbon emission reduction potential estimation results in real time, generates multi-scenario comparison charts, and supports saving, comparing, and exporting schemes, adapting to the workflow of multi-scheme iteration in the early planning stage. The visualization output module integrates GIS visualization components and automatically generates visualization results such as carbon emission reduction potential heat maps, contribution pie charts, and scenario comparison radar charts.

[0023] The aforementioned main solution and its various further alternative solutions can be freely combined to form multiple solutions, all of which are solutions that can be adopted and are claimed in this application. Those skilled in the art, after understanding the solution of this application, will realize that there are many combinations based on the prior art and common general knowledge, all of which are technical solutions to be protected in this application, and will not be exhaustively listed here.

[0024] The beneficial effects of this application are: (1) Significantly improved efficiency: shortened the calculation time of carbon emission reduction potential in the area, fully adapted to the needs of rapid comparison of multiple schemes in the early stage of planning, realized the low-carbon requirements to the planning decision-making stage, and shifted from the later verification to the early guidance.

[0025] (2) Complete and comprehensive accounting boundaries: For the first time, the dual dimensions of building emission reduction and green space carbon sink increment are incorporated into the area-level rapid estimation system, which makes up for the shortcomings of existing methods that only calculate building emissions.

[0026] (3) Accuracy is controllable and meets the requirements: The accuracy requirements of the early planning stage are met through the architecture of a three-level benchmark database and multi-factor correction.

[0027] (4) The threshold for use has been greatly reduced: No professional carbon accounting and ecological survey knowledge is required. Only basic planning data needs to be entered to operate, which breaks down the barriers between low-carbon planning and spatial planning and promotes the implementation of low-carbon requirements.

[0028] (5) Filling the gap in scale technology: Proposing a two-dimensional carbon emission reduction potential estimation method at the mesoscale level of the area, filling the scale gap between the city-level macro estimation and the project-level micro accounting, and improving the technical system of carbon accounting for urban renewal.

[0029] (6) Reflecting the characteristics of contiguous renewal: Including the two types of coordinated emission reduction of buildings and green spaces reflects the scale effect of the overall planning of the area, which is more in line with reality than the independent summation of individual plots, and the carbon emission reduction potential estimation results are more accurate.

[0030] (7) Wide range of applicable scenarios: It can be adapted to various urban renewal scenarios such as old residential area renewal, industrial brownfield renovation, ecological restoration renewal, and park city construction. The results can be directly used for planning scheme preparation, submission for approval, and comparison of multiple schemes, and have strong implementation. Attached Figure Description

[0031] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the rapid estimation method for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level in this application. Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level in this application. Detailed Implementation

[0032] The following specific examples illustrate the implementation of this application. Those skilled in the art can easily understand other advantages and effects of this application from the content disclosed in this specification. This application can also be implemented or applied through other different specific embodiments, and various details in this specification can also be modified or changed based on different viewpoints and applications without departing from the spirit of this application. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the following embodiments and features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0033] It should be noted that similar reference numerals and letters in the following figures indicate similar items; therefore, once an item is defined in one figure, it does not need to be further defined and explained in subsequent figures. In the description of this application, it should also be noted that, unless otherwise expressly specified and limited, the terms "set," "install," "connect," and "link" should be interpreted broadly. For example, they can refer to a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; they can refer to a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; they can refer to a direct connection or an indirect connection through an intermediate medium; and they can refer to the internal communication between two components. Those skilled in the art can understand the specific meaning of the above terms in this application based on the specific circumstances.

[0034] Furthermore, it should be noted that unless otherwise specified in this application, the specific structures, connections, positions, power sources, etc. involved are all things that a person skilled in the art can know without creative effort based on the prior art.

[0035] Example 1 refer to Figure 1 As shown in the figure, a rapid estimation method for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level is illustrated. The rapid estimation method for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level includes the following steps.

[0036] Step S1: Collection of basic information and division of units in the area. Collect basic information on buildings and green spaces in the area, and divide them into building emission reduction estimation units and green space carbon sink estimation units respectively.

[0037] Preferably, in step S1, the collected basic building information for the area includes: basic attributes of the area: total land area, city, average age of buildings, and climate zone; land use structure: area and proportion of five core land uses: residential, industrial, commercial, public service, and green space; renewal model structure: area proportion of three models: demolition and reconstruction, renovation and expansion, and comprehensive renovation; plot ratio parameters: average plot ratio of various types of construction land and the increase in plot ratio; low-carbon technology expectations: expected application ratio of photovoltaic coverage, prefabricated building proportion, sponge city compliance rate, and vertical greening rate; infrastructure conditions: whether it is connected to centralized energy supply and reclaimed water system, and whether building material recycling is carried out uniformly.

[0038] Preferably, in step S1, the basic information of the green space in the area collected includes: the total area of ​​the existing green space, the proportion of the area of ​​the various types of green space (tree forest / shrub forest / lawn / tree-shrub-grass multi-layered green space / wetland / vertical greening), the quality grade of the green space, the total area of ​​the planned green space, the proportion of the area of ​​various types of green space, the proportion of native tree species, and the planned area of ​​vertical greening.

[0039] In step S1, building emission reduction units are divided into 12 categories: 3 types of renewal modes × 4 types of construction land; green space carbon sink units are divided into 6 types of green space, all of which are the smallest estimation units. One-click import of GIS vector data is supported, and the area proportion of each type of land use, renewal mode, and green space type is automatically calculated.

[0040] Step S2: Construct a hierarchical carbon emission benchmark database. Based on large-sample statistics and national standards, a carbon emission benchmark database is constructed. The database follows a three-tiered progressive architecture: "macro-calibration - meso-calculation - micro-correction," comprising a macro-city / regional calibration layer, a meso-benchmark layer, and a micro-correction layer for influencing factors. Specifically: (1) Level 1: City / Region Macro Calibration Layer This data is constructed based on publicly available data from multiple sources, including national building energy consumption statistics for prefecture-level and above cities, national carbon trading market registered projects, and urban renewal pilot demonstration projects of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. It also references the differentiation patterns of urban building carbon emission intensity in the "Research Report on Building Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China" by the China Academy of Building Research, and combines measured and calculated data from urban renewal pilot projects of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

[0041] Based on a two-dimensional classification system (five regions: severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, hot summer and warm winter, and temperate) and city size (four categories: megacities, super-large cities, large cities, and small and medium-sized cities), a total of 5×4=20 climate zone / city combinations are formed. Baseline calculation: The average annual carbon emission intensity per unit area of ​​existing buildings in the city under each combination is statistically analyzed. Taking megacities in hot summer and cold winter zones as the baseline (coefficient = 1.0), the relative calibration coefficients for other types are calculated, with the coefficient range being 0.7-1.3.

[0042] (2) Second level: Mesoscopic benchmark layer It includes two parallel sub-databases: a building emissions reduction benchmark sub-database and a green space carbon sequestration benchmark sub-database, both based on large-sample statistics. Building Emission Reduction Benchmark Sub-library: Benchmark values ​​for carbon emission reduction per unit area and benchmark values ​​for emission reduction cost per unit area for 12 types of prefabricated building estimation units. Each benchmark value is broken down into three stages: demolition, renovation, and operation throughout the entire life cycle. It is obtained based on the statistical analysis of samples of ≥30 similar projects, and the median of the samples is taken as the benchmark value. P25 and P75 quantile values ​​are also provided for sensitivity analysis.

[0043] Green space carbon sink benchmark sub-database: Pre-set annual carbon sink benchmark values ​​per unit area for 6 types of green space, referring to the "Guidelines for Carbon Sink Measurement and Monitoring of Afforestation Projects" and the "Technical Specifications for Carbon Sink Accounting of Urban Green Spaces", combined with the statistical data of measured green space carbon sinks in different climate zones across the country, and the total carbon sink corresponding to a 30-year operating cycle can be directly converted.

[0044] (3) Third level: Micro-correction layer of impact factor Based on regression analysis, core influencing factors were selected, and corresponding correction coefficients were pre-calculated, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3. Under the baseline condition, the coefficient was 1.0, which was used to adjust for individual differences among similar projects and improve estimation accuracy. Building-related correction factors include: building age, floor area ratio, low-carbon technology, infrastructure synergy, and building material recycling rate, totaling 5 categories; Green space correction factors: Green space quality grade (excellent / medium / poor corresponding to 1.1 / 1.0 / 0.9) and native tree species ratio (≥80% corresponding to 1.1, 50%-80% corresponding to 1.0, <50% corresponding to 0.9), for a total of 2 categories.

[0045] Step S3: Rapidly calculate the carbon emission potential of the area. Calculate the total emission reduction of buildings and the net carbon sink increase of green space before and after renovation, and superimpose the coordinated emission reduction of the contiguous area to obtain the total carbon emission reduction potential of the area.

[0046] The total carbon reduction potential is rapidly calculated using the logic of "benchmark value × area × correction factor × macro calibration factor," comprising three parts: building emission reduction, net carbon sink increment in green spaces, and synergistic emission reduction. The core formula is as follows:

[0047] (1) Total building emissions reduction ( )calculate: Emission reduction per building unit:

[0048] In the formula: Let be the area of ​​the i-th building unit; This is the benchmark value for carbon emission reduction per unit area for the corresponding type; For macroscopic calibration coefficients; - The correction factor is for Class 5 buildings.

[0049] The total emission reduction of a building is the sum of the emission reductions of all its units:

[0050] (2) Increase in net carbon sequestration of green space ( )calculate Calculate the difference in green space carbon sequestration before and after the update, only accounting for the increase brought about by the update:

[0051] In the formula: , These represent the area of ​​the current, planned, and existing Class j green space, respectively. This represents the annual carbon sequestration baseline per unit area for the corresponding type of green space; The correction factor (quality + tree species structure correction) is the corresponding green space; T is the standard operating period, taken as 30 years.

[0052] (3) Calculation of synergistic emission reduction It comprises two parts: building collaboration and green space collaboration, reflecting the scale effect of contiguous urban renewal:

[0053] In the formula: The building collaboration coefficient is set at 5%-10% based on conditions such as joint infrastructure construction and unified recycling of building materials. The green space synergy coefficient is set at 3%-8% based on the ecological effects of contiguous green spaces.

[0054] Simultaneously calculate core indicators, including total emission reduction cost of the area, emission reduction per unit area, average emission reduction cost, emission reduction contribution of buildings and green spaces, and emission reduction ranking of various units.

[0055] Step S4: Rapid comparison of multiple scenarios, parameter adjustment for different scenarios, real-time output of carbon emission reduction potential estimation results under different scenarios and comparison.

[0056] It supports parameterized adjustment of core variables and outputs carbon reduction potential results under different scenarios in real time, assisting in the rapid iteration of planning schemes. (1) Four baseline scenarios are pre-set: baseline scenario (existing scheme), low carbon priority scenario (high emission reduction investment, high green space ratio), economic priority scenario (low cost investment), and balanced scenario (emission reduction and cost optimization). (2) Supports custom parameter adjustment: Adjust parameters such as update mode ratio, low-carbon technology coverage, green space ratio, multi-layer green space ratio, and plot ratio increase by dragging the slider to update the carbon emission reduction potential estimation results in real time without having to repeatedly enter data; (3) Automatically generate multi-scenario comparison reports, including core indicator comparison tables and radar charts, and output optimal solution suggestions.

[0057] Step S5: Generate and output a two-dimensional visualized report of carbon reduction potential results. The generated estimation results include: Key Indicators Table: Total carbon reduction potential, building emission reduction, green space carbon sink increment, synergistic emission reduction, emission reduction per unit area, total emission reduction cost, average emission reduction cost, and emission reduction contribution ranking; Spatial distribution map: Generates a heat map of the overall carbon emission reduction potential of the area, overlaying the spatial distribution of building emission reduction and green space carbon sink, intuitively displaying key emission reduction areas.

[0058] Estimate Report: Export official estimate reports in PDF / Excel format with one click, which can be directly used for planning scheme approval and low-carbon scheme comparison.

[0059] Application Cases Taking a certain urban renewal area as an example, the specific implementation process of the present invention will be explained in detail.

[0060] I. Basic Project Information Total land area: 15.2 hectares, located in a hot-summer, cold-winter zone, in a large city; Land use structure: 60% residential land, 30% industrial land, and 10% commercial land; current green space ratio is 7.9%, and planned green space ratio is 16.4%. Update pattern: Demolition and reconstruction 40%, renovation and expansion 40%, comprehensive renovation 20%; Average building age: 1995; Low-carbon technologies: 30% photovoltaic coverage, 20% prefabricated building ratio, and 5% vertical greening rate; Infrastructure: Building material recycling is carried out uniformly; there is no centralized energy supply. Green space data: The existing green space is 1.2 hectares, 90% of which is lawn and 10% is shrubland, and the quality of the green space is average; the planned green space is 2.5 hectares, 60% of which is multi-layered green space of trees, shrubs and grasses, 30% is lawn and 10% is wetland, and native tree species account for 85%, and the quality of the green space is excellent.

[0061] II. Estimation Process Apply the macro-calibration coefficient: for large cities in hot-summer and cold-winter zones, the coefficient = 0.9; Building emission reduction calculation: Divide into 8 types of effective building units, call the corresponding baseline values ​​and correction coefficients respectively, and calculate the total building emission reduction of 62,000 tons of CO2e; Calculation of net carbon sequestration increment in green spaces: Current annual carbon sequestration: (1.2×0.9×2.1+1.2×0.1×6.8)×1.0=3.084 tons / year; The planned carbon sink for the following year is: (2.5×0.6×12.5+2.5×0.3×2.1+2.5×0.1×15.3)×1.1=29.04 tons / year; Net carbon sequestration increase over 30 years: (29.04 - 3.084) × 30 = 778.68 tons of CO2e; Coordinated emission reduction calculation: Building coordination coefficient 7%, green space coordination coefficient 5%, total coordinated emission reduction = 62000 × 7% + 778.68 × 5% = 4378.93 tons CO2e; Total carbon emission reduction potential: 62000 + 778.68 + 4378.93 = 67157.61 tons of CO2e; Total emission reduction cost: approximately RMB 21.5 million, with an average emission reduction cost of RMB 320 per ton; Emission reduction contribution: Building emission reduction accounts for 92.3%, green space carbon sink accounts for 1.16%, and collaborative emission reduction accounts for 6.54%.

[0062] III. Multi-scenario Comparison Results Low-carbon priority scenario: The proportion of demolition and reconstruction increases to 60%, photovoltaic coverage rate is 50%, green space rate increases to 22%, multi-layered green space accounts for 80%, the total carbon emission reduction potential increases to 84,500 tons, and the cost increases by 38%; Economic priority scenario: The comprehensive remediation rate is increased to 50%, the photovoltaic coverage rate is 10%, the green space rate remains unchanged, the total carbon emission reduction potential is reduced to 47,200 tons, and the cost is reduced by 42%; Balanced Scenario: Optimal in terms of emission reduction and cost, with a total carbon emission reduction potential of 69,000 tons and a cost of 22.3 million yuan, which is the recommended option.

[0063] Example 2 Based on Example 1, this example also discloses a rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level, which uses the estimation method of Example 1 for estimation.

[0064] The rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level includes: (1) Basic Information Input Module It provides a visual form input interface, covering two basic data categories: buildings and green spaces; it supports one-click import of GIS vector data and automatically calculates the area ratio of land use structure, update mode, and green space type; it has built-in data validation rules and automatically prompts for abnormal data to ensure the rationality of input data.

[0065] (2) Hierarchical benchmark database module It has a built-in nationally applicable three-level benchmark database, including two sub-databases: building emission reduction and green space carbon sink; it supports parameter query, localized calibration, and custom modification; it also has a data update interface that can regularly synchronize the latest benchmark values ​​and supports users to upload local project data to generate their own database.

[0066] (3) Fast estimation calculation module It features a built-in dual-dimensional core computing engine, enabling rapid calculation of all carbon emission reduction potentials; it supports batch calculation of multiple scenarios and automatically verifies the calculation logic to ensure the accuracy of the results.

[0067] (4) Multi-scenario comparison module It provides parameter slider adjustment function, covering two core parameters: building and green space, and updates carbon emission reduction potential estimation results in real time; it automatically generates multi-scenario comparison charts, supports saving, comparing and exporting schemes, and adapts to the workflow of multi-scheme iteration in the early stage of planning.

[0068] (5) Visualization output module It integrates GIS visualization components to automatically generate visualization results such as carbon emission reduction potential heat maps, contribution pie charts, and scenario comparison radar charts, which can overlay the dual-dimensional distribution of buildings and green spaces; it has built-in standardized report templates and can export formal estimation reports with one click, supporting export in PDF, Excel, and image formats.

[0069] The above description is merely a preferred embodiment of this application and is not intended to limit this application. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, and improvements made within the spirit and principles of this application should be included within the protection scope of this application.

Claims

1. A rapid estimation method for the carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level, characterized in that, The rapid estimation method for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level includes: S1: Collection of basic information and division of units in the area. Collect basic information on buildings and green spaces in the area, and divide the building emission reduction estimation unit and the green space carbon sink estimation unit respectively. S2: Construct a hierarchical carbon emission benchmark database. Based on large-sample statistics and national standards, a carbon emission benchmark database is constructed. The corresponding database has a three-level progressive architecture, including a macro-city / regional calibration layer, a meso-level benchmark layer, and a micro-level correction layer for influencing factors. S3: Rapid calculation of the carbon emission potential of the area, calculate the total emission reduction of buildings and the net carbon sink increase of green space before and after renovation, and superimpose the coordinated emission reduction of the contiguous area to obtain the total carbon emission reduction potential of the area; S4: Rapid comparison of multiple scenarios, parameter adjustment for different scenarios, real-time output of carbon emission reduction potential estimation results under different scenarios and comparison; S5: Generate and output a two-dimensional visualization of carbon reduction potential results and reports.

2. The method for rapid estimation of carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 1, characterized in that, In step S1, the collected basic building information for the area includes: Basic attributes of the area: total land area, city, average age of buildings, and climate zone; Land use structure: the area and proportion of five core land uses: residential, industrial, commercial, public service, and green space; Updated model structure: Area proportions of the three models: demolition and reconstruction, renovation and expansion, and comprehensive renovation; Floor area ratio parameters: average floor area ratio and floor area ratio increase rate for various types of construction land; Low-carbon technology expectations: Expected application rates of photovoltaic coverage, prefabricated building ratio, sponge city compliance rate, and vertical greening rate; Infrastructure conditions: Whether it is connected to a centralized energy supply and reclaimed water system, and whether building material recycling is carried out in a unified manner.

3. The method for rapid estimation of carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 2, characterized in that, In step S1, the basic information of the green space in the area collected includes: Current total green space area, percentage of various types of green space including arbor forests / shrub forests / lawns / multi-layered green spaces of trees, shrubs and grasses / wetlands / vertical greening, green space quality grade, total green space area after planning, percentage of various types of green space area, percentage of native tree species, and planned area of ​​vertical greening.

4. The method for rapid estimation of carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 3, characterized in that, In step S1, the building emission reduction unit is divided into 12 categories: 3 types of renewal mode × 4 types of construction land; the green space carbon sink unit is divided into 6 types of green space.

5. The rapid estimation method for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 4, characterized in that, In step S2, The city / regional macro calibration layer is divided according to the dual dimensions of climate zone and city size, with pre-made corresponding calibration coefficients, and is applicable to both building and green space accounting. The meso-level benchmark layer includes a building emission reduction benchmark sub-database and a green space carbon sink benchmark sub-database, which are obtained based on large-sample statistics. The micro-correction layer includes building-related correction factors and green space-related correction factors, among which green space-related correction factors include green space quality correction and native tree species ratio correction.

6. The method for rapid estimation of carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 5, characterized in that, In step S3, the total carbon emission reduction potential is calculated using the logic of baseline value × area × correction factor × macro calibration factor. The total carbon emission reduction potential includes three parts: total building emission reduction, net carbon sink increment of green space, and synergistic emission reduction, as shown below: in, This represents the total emission reduction from buildings. This indicates the increase in net carbon sequestration of green spaces. This indicates the amount of emissions reduced collaboratively.

7. The rapid estimation method for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 6, characterized in that, In step S3, Total building emissions reduction This is the sum of emission reductions from several individual building units, where the emission reduction from a single building unit is: In the formula: Let be the area of ​​the i-th building unit. This represents the baseline value for carbon emission reduction per unit area for the corresponding type. For macroscopic calibration coefficients, - Correction factors for Class 5 buildings; Total building emissions reduction for: Where N represents the total number of buildings; Increase in net carbon sequestration of green spaces To calculate the difference in green space carbon sequestration before and after the update, it is expressed as: In the formula: , These represent the area of ​​the j-th type of green space after the planning phase and the current status, respectively. This represents the annual carbon sequestration baseline per unit area for the corresponding type of green space. The correction factor for the corresponding green space is T, which is the standard operating period, taken as 30 years. Coordinated emission reduction The calculation, comprising two parts—building collaboration and green space collaboration—reflects the scale effect of contiguous urban renewal and is expressed as follows: In the formula: The building coordination coefficient is taken as 5%-10%; The green space synergy coefficient is set at 3%-8% based on the ecological effects of contiguous green spaces.

8. The method for rapid estimation of carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 6, characterized in that, Step S4 includes: Based on four preset scenarios: baseline scenario, low-carbon priority scenario, economic priority scenario, and balanced scenario, the system adjusts and updates parameters such as the proportion of update mode, low-carbon technology coverage, green space ratio, proportion of multi-layered green space, and increase in plot ratio. It updates the carbon emission reduction potential estimation results in real time, generates a multi-scenario comparison report, including a core indicator comparison table and radar chart, and outputs solution suggestions.

9. The method for rapid estimation of carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level as described in claim 8, characterized in that, The estimation results generated in step S5 include: Key Indicators Table: Total carbon reduction potential, building emission reduction, green space carbon sink increment, synergistic emission reduction, emission reduction per unit area, total emission reduction cost, average emission reduction cost, and emission reduction contribution ranking; Spatial distribution map: Generates a heat map of the overall carbon emission reduction potential of the area, overlaying the spatial distribution of building emission reduction and green space carbon sink, intuitively displaying key emission reduction areas.

10. A rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level, characterized in that, The rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level uses the estimation method described in any one of claims 1 to 9 for estimation. The rapid estimation system for carbon emission reduction potential of urban renewal at the district level includes: The basic information entry module is used to collect and enter basic information about the area. The hierarchical benchmark database module has a built-in three-level carbon emission benchmark database, which includes two sub-databases: building emission reduction and green space carbon sink. The rapid estimation calculation module is used to complete the calculation of all carbon emission reduction potential; The multi-scenario comparison module provides parameter adjustment functions, covering two core parameters: buildings and green spaces. It updates carbon emission reduction potential estimation results in real time, generates multi-scenario comparison charts, and supports saving, comparing, and exporting schemes, adapting to the workflow of multi-scheme iteration in the early planning stage. The visualization output module integrates GIS visualization components and automatically generates heat maps of carbon emission reduction potential, contribution pie charts, and scenario comparison radar charts.

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