Device condition assessment device, device condition assessment method and program

Abstract

Device condition estimation device (1), comprising: a state variable acquisition unit (101) configured to acquire a state variable of a target device, including a temperature of the target device; a load specification unit (103) configured to specify a load profile of the target device based on the state variable; and a remaining lifetime calculation unit (105) configured to calculate a variety of parameters related to a remaining lifetime of the target device for each of a variety of degradation types, including crack initiation and crack growth, based on the load profile specified by the load specification unit (103), wherein the load specification unit (103) specifies a load range for each cycle of a load fluctuation of the target device based on the state variable.wherein the remaining lifetime calculation unit (105) calculates one of the plurality of parameters relating to crack growth for the case in which another parameter of the plurality of parameters relating to crack occurrence indicates the occurrence of a crack in the target device, and wherein the remaining lifetime calculation unit (105) calculates an accumulated lifetime consumption rate as another parameter of the plurality of parameters, wherein the accumulated lifetime consumption rate is obtained by accumulating, for each cycle, a lifetime consumption rate calculated on the basis of a number of lifetime cycles relating to a crack occurrence in the target device and the load range specified by the load specification unit (103).

Description

Technical field of the invention

[0001] The present invention relates to a device state estimation device, a device state estimation method and a program.

[0002] Priority is claimed in the Japanese patent application No. 2016-235207, filed on December 2, 2016, the contents of which are included herein by reference. Background of the invention

[0003] PTL 1 discloses a technique for assessing the remaining service life until creep damage occurs and the remaining service life due to corrosion in a boiler pipeline. Patent literature

[0004] PTL 1: Unexamined Japanese patent application, first publication no. 2011-58933 Summary of the invention: Technical problem

[0005] A device operating in a high-temperature environment reaches the end of its service life due to a variety of degradation factors (e.g., crack initiation, crack growth, creep, or the like) caused by a load applied to the device. According to the technique described in PTL 1, the remaining service life due to creep damage under load-related degradation is specified, but the remaining service life due to other degradation factors is not assessed.

[0006] One object of the present invention is to provide an equipment condition estimation device, an equipment condition estimation method and a program to appropriately manage the lifetime due to a load applied to a target equipment for each degradation factor. Solution to the problem

[0007] A first aspect of the present invention provides for an apparatus state estimation device comprising: a state variable acquisition unit configured to acquire a state variable of a target apparatus including a temperature of the target apparatus; a load specification unit configured to specify a load profile of the target apparatus based on the state variable; and a remaining lifetime calculation unit configured to calculate a parameter related to a remaining lifetime of the target apparatus for each of a plurality of degradation types based on the load profile specified by the load specification unit.

[0008] According to a second aspect of the present invention, which provides the device condition estimation device according to the first aspect, the load specification unit can specify a load range for each cycle of a load fluctuation of the target device based on the state variable, and the remaining lifetime calculation unit can calculate an accumulated lifetime consumption rate as the parameter, wherein the accumulated lifetime consumption rate is obtained by accumulating, for each cycle, a lifetime consumption rate calculated based on a number of lifetime cycles related to a crack occurrence in the target device and the load range specified by the load specification unit.

[0009] According to a third aspect of the present invention, which provides the device condition estimation device according to the second aspect, the remaining lifetime calculation unit can calculate a crack length of the target device as the parameter based on the load width specified by the load specification unit for the case in which the accumulated lifetime consumption rate is one or more.

[0010] According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, the device condition estimation device according to any of the first to third aspects may further comprise an operating condition calculation unit configured to calculate an operating condition for operating the target device based on the parameter calculated by the remaining lifetime calculation unit.

[0011] According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, which provides the device condition estimation device according to the fourth aspect, a time specification unit may further be included which is configured to specify a time during which operation of the target device must continue, and the operating condition calculation unit may calculate an operating condition for continuing operation of the target device during the time specified by the time specification unit based on the parameter calculated by the remaining lifetime calculation unit.

[0012] According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, the device condition estimation device according to the fifth aspect can further comprise an operating permit determination unit configured to determine whether or not operation can continue until a predetermined inspection time, in the case where the target device is operated under a predetermined operating condition, wherein the time specification unit can specify a time from the present time until the inspection time as the time during which the operation of the target device must continue, and in the case where the operating permit determination unit determines that operation cannot continue, the operating condition calculation unit can calculate an operating condition for continuing the operation of the target device during the time specified by the time specification unit.

[0013] According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, the device condition estimation device according to the fourth aspect may further comprise a load input unit configured to receive an input of a load for operating the target device, and the operating condition calculation unit may calculate an operating condition when the target device is operated with the input load, based on the parameter related to the remaining service life.

[0014] According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, the device condition estimation device according to one of the fourth to seventh aspects may further comprise a maintenance information storage unit configured to store maintenance information generated during maintenance work on the target device, and the operating condition calculation unit may calculate the operating condition based on the maintenance information stored in the maintenance information storage unit.

[0015] A ninth aspect of the present invention provides a device state estimation method comprising: a step for acquiring a state variable of a target device including a temperature of the target device; a step for specifying a load profile of the target device based on the state variable; and a step for calculating a parameter related to a remaining lifetime of the target device for each of a plurality of degradation types based on the specified load profile.

[0016] A tenth aspect of the present invention provides a program that causes a computer to function as: a state variable acquisition unit configured to acquire a state variable of a target device, including a temperature of the target device; a load specification unit configured to specify a load profile of the target device based on the state variable; and a remaining lifetime calculation unit configured to calculate a parameter related to a remaining lifetime of the target device for each of a plurality of degradation types based on the load profile specified by the load specification unit. Advantageous effects of the invention

[0017] According to at least one of the above aspects, the equipment condition estimator calculates a relationship between the load on the turbine and the operating time based on the turbine's load profile. Thus, the equipment condition estimator can appropriately manage the service life due to the load applied to the target equipment for each degradation factor. List of characters Fig. Figure 1 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of a turbine analysis device according to a first embodiment. Fig. Figure 2 is a diagram showing an example of LCF diagram data. Fig. Figure 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the turbine analysis device according to the first embodiment during each collection cycle. Fig. Figure 4 is a flowchart showing a process for generating an operating plan by the turbine analysis device according to the first embodiment. Fig. Figure 5 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of a turbine analysis device according to a second embodiment. Fig. Figure 6 is a flowchart showing a process for representing operating conditions by the turbine analysis device according to the second embodiment. Fig. Figure 7 is a view showing a first example of an operating conditions presentation screen output by the turbine analysis device according to the second embodiment. Fig. Figure 8 is a view showing a second example of the operating conditions presentation screen output by the turbine analysis device according to the second embodiment. Fig. Figure 9 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of a computer according to at least one embodiment. Description of exemplary embodiments «First exemplary embodiment»

[0018] A first embodiment is described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

[0019] Fig. Figure 1 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of a turbine analysis device according to a first embodiment.

[0020] The turbine analysis device 1 According to the first embodiment, an operating schedule for a plurality of turbines is generated. The operating schedule of the turbines according to the first embodiment represents information indicating a load related to the operation of each turbine. The turbine analysis device 1 is an example of a device state estimation device in which a target device is a turbine.

[0021] A turbine analysis device 1 According to a first embodiment, a data collection unit comprises 101 , a heat balance calculation unit 102 , a load specification unit 103 , a remaining lifetime storage unit 104 , a remaining service life calculation unit 105 , an inspection time storage unit 106 , a time specification unit 107 , an operating conditions calculation unit 108 , an operating permit determination unit 109 , a load calculation unit 110 , an energy generation quantity forecasting unit 111 , an operational plan generation unit 112 , an output unit 113 and a maintenance information storage unit 115 .

[0022] The data collection unit 101The data collection unit collects real-time operating data from a turbine at a customer's power plant. Specifically, it collects... 101 Operating data is collected from a sensor integrated into the turbine for each predetermined collection cycle (e.g., 5 minutes). The collection cycle is short enough to maintain the immediacy of monitoring. Examples of operating data include flow rate, pressure, temperature, vibration, and other state variables. The data collection unit 101 is an example of a state variable acquisition unit that acquires a state variable of a turbine.

[0023] The heat balance calculation unit 102 The heat balance of the turbine is calculated based on the data collected by the data collection unit. 101Collected operating data. The heat balance comprises the temperature, pressure, enthalpy, flow rate, and other state variables for each part attached to the turbine. The heat balance calculation unit. 102 The heat balance is calculated through simulation based on operational data. Examples of simulation methods for heat balance calculation include the finite element method (FEM) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The heat balance calculation unit 102 is an example of a state variable acquisition unit that acquires a state variable of a turbine.

[0024] The load specification unit 103 calculates a Larson-Miller parameter value (LMP value) L c , which displays the degradation level of each turbine part in the last collection cycle, based on the heat balance calculation unit 102calculated heat balance. The LMP value L c is a parameter obtained by the following equation (1). [Equation 1] L c = T c ( log t c + C ) .

[0025] T c This displays the thermodynamic temperature of a turbine component. The thermodynamic temperature is equivalent to the Celsius temperature plus 273.15. The component's temperature is determined by the heat balance, which is calculated using the heat balance calculation unit. 102 calculated, specified. t c shows the operating time of a turbine at temperature T c on. That is, the time t c is equal to the collection cycle of the data collection unit 101 C is a constant determined by the material of the part. For example, in the case where the material of the part is low-carbon steel or chromium-molybdenum steel, the constant C can be 20Furthermore, for example in the case where the material of the part is stainless steel, the constant C can be 15 be.

[0026] Thus, the LMP value is a parameter specified from the part's temperature and operating time. That is, the LMP value is an example of a temperature profile variable related to the temperature profile applied to the part. The LMP value can represent the progress of creep degradation. Furthermore, the LMP value is an example of a profile of loads applied to the part.

[0027] The load specification unit 103 calculates the amount of stress on each part in the last collection cycle based on the heat balance calculation unit. 102 calculated heat balance. The load specification unit 103It calculates a load width for each half-cycle of a load fluctuation based on the calculated magnitude of a load. For example, a cycle counting method can be used to specify a half-cycle of a load fluctuation, such as a rain flux method, a peak counting method, a level exceedance counting method, a mean exceedance counting method, a range counting method, or a range pair counting method.

[0028] The remaining lifetime storage unit 104 It stores parameters regarding the remaining service life of each turbine component. Specifically, the remaining service life storage unit stores... 104The remaining creep life, the low cycle fatigue (LCF) fatigue life rate, and the crack length are used. The remaining creep life is represented by the time until the part reaches the end of its service life, assuming the turbine is operated at its rated temperature. The initial value of the remaining creep life is a design lifetime based on a creep deformation of the part.

[0029] The remaining service life calculation unit 105 calculates the remaining creep life of each part of the turbine based on the load specification unit. 103 calculated LMP value and the one in the remaining lifetime memory unit 104 The stored residual creep life and the nominal temperature of the part are calculated. In particular, the residual creep life calculation unit calculates... 105 the creep lifespan t s, which is converted into operation at nominal temperature by the load specification unit 103 calculated LMP value L c and the nominal temperature T s in the following equation (2). Then the remaining service life calculation unit is calculated. 105 the remaining creep life, by subtracting the calculated creep life from the one stored in the remaining life storage unit 104 The stored residual creep life is subtracted. [Equation 2] t s = 10 L c T s − C

[0030] Fig. Figure 2 is a diagram showing an example of LCF diagram data. The remaining service life calculation unit. 105 calculates the LCF lifetime consumption rate of each part of the turbine based on the load specification unit. 103calculated load range for each half-cycle and the LCF diagram data, which show the design lifetime relative to the LCF. The LCF diagram data is a data table or a function that shows the relationship between the load range of each part and the number of lifetime cycles, as in Fig. Figure 2 shows. In particular, the remaining service life calculation unit specifies 105 The number of life cycles is determined by substituting the load range in the LCF diagram data, and the reciprocal of the number of life cycles is used to calculate the LCF lifetime consumption rate. The load range of the part is obtained, for example, by the product of the part's expansion rate, the part's Young's modulus, and the part's temperature change range.

[0031] The remaining service life calculation unit 105 calculates the crack length of the turbine based on the load specification unit 103The calculated load width Δσ for each half-cycle. Paris's law or similar can be used to calculate the crack length. In particular, the remaining service life calculation unit calculates 105 a crack length ai, by which the load specification unit 103 The calculated load width Δσ is replaced in the following equation (3). [Equation 3] n i = ∑ a 0 a i Δ a C × Δ K m Δ K = Δ σ × π × a × F ( a )

[0032] Here is n i the number of load cycles, ao is one in the remaining service life storage unit 104 Stored crack length, Δa is a predetermined microcrack length, and C and m are predetermined material coefficients; F(a) is a function for obtaining the shape factor from the crack length. That is, the remaining service life calculation unit. 105The crack length ai in equation (3) is calculated by adding the pre-determined microcrack length Δa to the crack length ao until the load fluctuation number ni becomes the current value.

[0033] As described above, the remaining service life calculation unit calculates 105 Parameters related to the remaining service life for each creep deformation, LCF and crack growth.

[0034] The inspection time storage unit 106 stores the turbine inspection time.

[0035] The time specification unit 107 specifies the time from the current time to the inspection time based on the data stored in the inspection time storage unit. 106 The stored inspection time. The time from the current time to the inspection time is an example of the time during which the turbine operation must continue. Furthermore, the time specification unit specifies 107The frequency of turbine start-ups from the current time to the inspection time, based on the inspection time and the current operating schedule.

[0036] The operating conditions calculation unit 108 calculates the operating time and the number of possible activations of the turbine in the operation according to the current operating plan based on the parameters related to the remaining service life storage unit. 104 Stored remaining service life. In particular, the operating conditions calculation unit calculates this. 108 the LMP value L1 of each part by the remaining lifetime memory unit 104 stored residual creep life t1 and the nominal temperature T s in the following equation (4). [Equation 4] L l = T s ( log t l + C )

[0037] Then the operating conditions calculation unit calculates 108 the operating time t p, by using the calculated LMP value L1 and the temperature T p corresponding to the load shown in the operating plan in the following equation (5). [Equation 5] t p = 10 L l T p − C

[0038] The operating conditions calculation unit 108 Calculates the LCF consumption lifetime rate of one cycle of the operating pattern based on the load range of the operating pattern according to the current operating plan. The operating condition calculation unit 108 It calculates the number of cycles until cracking occurs by dividing the remaining LCF rate by the calculated LCF consumption rate. The remaining LCF rate is a value obtained by subtracting the value stored in the remaining lifetime storage unit. 104 The stored LFC consumption lifetime rate is subtracted from 1. Furthermore, the operating condition calculation unit can be used. 108The number of cycles ni until the crack length reaches the design lifetime from the time of crack occurrence is calculated by substituting the load width Δσ of the operating pattern according to the current operating plan and the crack length ai according to the design lifetime in the preceding equation (3). The operating condition calculation unit 108 The number of possible activations is calculated by adding the number of cycles until the crack occurs and the number of cycles until the crack length reaches the design lifetime from the time the crack occurs.

[0039] The operating permit determination unit 109 determines whether the turbine can operate with the load indicated by the operating plan for the time specified by the time specification unit. 107 can or cannot continue for the specified time, based on the operating condition calculation unit. 108calculated operating time and the number of possible activations and the time specification unit 107 specified time.

[0040] The load calculation unit 110 calculates a load that limits the operation of the turbine up to the value specified by the time specification unit. 107 specified time enabled, based on the parameter related to the remaining lifetime storage unit 104 Stored remaining service life. In particular, the load calculation unit calculates 110 the temperature Ti, by the LMP value L1 calculated by the preceding equation (4) and the time specification unit 107 specified time t i in the following equation (6). Then the load calculation unit is specified. 110 The operating load of the turbine based on the calculated temperature T i . [Equation 6] T i = L l log t i + C

[0041] The load calculation unit 110 calculates the number of possible activations for the case in which the turbine is operated in the operating pattern with respect to the calculated operating load.

[0042] The energy generation quantity forecasting unit 111 It acquires market energy demand information through the network and predicts the total amount of energy that the power plant under management must generate.

[0043] The operational plan generation unit 112 generates an operating schedule that displays the load and frequency of turbine activation, based on the load calculation unit. 110 calculated load, the number of possible activations and the prediction result by the energy generation quantity forecasting unit 111 In particular, the operational plan generation unit determines 112the operating plan up to the turbine inspection time, which is determined by the operating permit determination unit 109 is determined to prevent the continuation of operations with the load and the number of activations indicated by the current operating plan, rather than the continuation of operations with the load and the load calculation unit 110 The calculated number of possible activations is then generated by the operational plan generation unit. 112 an operating plan of the turbine, for which the operating permit determination unit 109 determined that operations can continue with the load indicated by the current operating schedule in order to meet the requirements of the energy generation quantity forecasting unit 111 to meet the predicted energy production volume.

[0044] The output unit 113 gives the information provided by the operational plan generation unit 112generated operating plan. Examples of the operating plan's output format include display on a screen, recording to a storage medium, and printing on a sheet of paper.

[0045] The maintenance information storage unit 115 It stores information generated during turbine maintenance. For example, the maintenance information storage unit stores... 115 Information about parts attached to the turbine, inspection results of the turbine during a periodic inspection, repair record information of the turbine, results of a review of turbine materials, and the like.

[0046] The following describes the operation of the turbine analysis device. 1 as described in the present embodiment.

[0047] Fig. Figure 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the turbine analysis device according to the first embodiment during each collection cycle.

[0048] The turbine analysis device 1 executes the process described below during each collection cycle.

[0049] First, the data collection unit gathers 101 Operating data of a turbine from sensors provided in the turbine (step S1 Then the heat balance calculation unit calculates 102 the heat balance of the turbine using the collected operating data as one input (step S2 ).

[0050] Then the turbine analysis device selects 1 removes the parts contained in the turbine one after the other and performs the processes shown below in a series of steps. S4 until S6 and of steps S7 until S13 for each of the selected parts in parallel (step S3 ).

[0051] First, the load specification unit calculates 103an LMP value that indicates the load profile of the selected part, using the heat balance calculation unit 102 calculated heat balance (step S4 Then the remaining service life calculation unit is calculated. 105 The creep life converted into operating life at nominal temperature, based on the load specification unit 103 calculated LMP value (step S5 Then the remaining service life calculation unit is subtracted. 105 the calculated creepage consumption lifetime from the remaining lifetime storage unit 104 stored residual creep life (step S6 ). Thus, the remaining service life calculation unit is updated. 105 the remaining lifetime storage unit 104 Stored residual creep life.

[0052] Furthermore, the load specification unit calculates 103the amount of the load on the selected part using the heat balance calculation unit 102 calculated heat balance (step S7 Then the load specification unit determines 103 , whether a half-cycle of a load fluctuation can be determined or not, based on the information in step S7 calculated amount of the charge and the amount of the charge calculated in the past (step S8 The determination of the half-cycle is carried out based on the cycle counting method described above. In the event that the half-cycle cannot be determined (NO in step 1), the following applies: S8 ), updates the turbine analysis device 1 The parameters relating to fatigue at low load cycles and the crack length are not included. In the case where the load specification unit 103 a half-cycle determined (YES in step S8), calculates the load specification unit 103 a load width of one half-cycle, which shows the load profile of the selected part (step S9 Then the remaining service life calculation unit is determined. 105 , whether the residual lifetime storage unit 104 stored LCF lifetime consumption rate 1 (100%) or more or not (step S10 The fact that the LCF lifetime consumption rate 1 A value greater than or higher indicates that a crack is present in the part selected by LCF.

[0053] In the case where the LCF lifetime consumption rate is less than 1 (NO in step S10 ), i.e., if a crack due to fatigue does not occur in the selected part at a low number of load cycles, the remaining service life calculation unit is calculated. 105 the LCF lifetime consumption rate based on the one in step S9 calculated load width (stepS11 Then add the remaining service life calculation unit. 105 the calculated LCF lifetime consumption rate compared to that calculated by the remaining lifetime storage unit 104 stored LCF lifetime consumption rate (step S12 That is, the remaining service life calculation unit 105 It calculates an accumulated lifetime consumption rate obtained by accumulating the LCF lifetime consumption rate from each cycle. This updates the remaining lifetime calculation unit. 105 the remaining lifetime storage unit 104 stored LCF lifetime consumption rate.

[0054] In the event that the LCF lifetime consumption rate 1 or larger (YES in step S10 ), i.e., if a crack occurs in the selected part due to fatigue at a low number of load cycles, the remaining service life calculation unit is calculated. 105 the crack length based on the step S9calculated load range and the remaining service life storage unit 104 stored crack length (step S13 ). Thus, the remaining service life calculation unit is updated. 105 the remaining lifetime storage unit 104 stored crack length.

[0055] The turbine analysis device 1 leads the process from step S1 to step S6 and the process of step S7 to step S13 in each collection cycle to adjust the parameters related to those in the remaining lifetime storage unit 104 To maintain the stored remaining service life of each part for each degradation type in the last state.

[0056] Here, a verification process of the operating plan is carried out using the turbine analysis device. 1 as described in the present embodiment. The turbine analysis device 1The turbine analysis device checks the operating schedule of each power plant at a time specified by the user or periodically. 1 changes the operating plan so that the parts of all turbines do not reach the end of their service life by the inspection time, in the event that it is predicted that the parts of the turbine will reach the end of their service life by the inspection time by operating the turbine according to the currently used operating plan.

[0057] Fig. Figure 4 is a flowchart showing a process for generating an operating plan by the turbine analysis device according to the first embodiment.

[0058] When the operational plan verification process is started, the turbine analysis device selects 1The turbines intended for verification of the operating plan are switched off one by one, and the process shown below is carried out step by step. S102 to step S106 and the process of step S110 to step S112 for the selected turbine in parallel (step S101 ).

[0059] First, the operating conditions calculation unit reads 108 the residual creep life associated with each part contained in the selected turbine from the residual lifetime storage unit 104 (Step S102 Then the operating conditions calculation unit calculates 108 for each part the operating time of the operation according to the current operating plan (step S103 ). At this point, the operating condition calculation unit can 108 In addition to the remaining creep life, the operating time using data stored in the maintenance information storage unit is also determined. 115Calculate stored maintenance information. Then read the time specification unit. 107 the inspection time associated with the selected turbine from the inspection time storage unit 106 and specifies the time from the present time to the inspection time (step S104 Then the operating permit determination unit compares 109 the shortest of the operating times of parts defined by the operating condition calculation unit 108 are calculated using the time specification unit 107 specified time, and determines whether the operation can be carried out according to the current operating plan until the next inspection time or not (step S105 ).

[0060] In the event that the operating permit determination unit 109determines that operation can continue according to the current operating plan until the next inspection time for the selected turbine (YES in step S105 ), the turbine analysis device returns 1 to step S101 It returns and selects the next turbine. On the other hand, in the case where the operating permit determination unit 109 determines that operation according to the current operating plan cannot be carried out until the next inspection time for the selected turbine (NO in step S105 ), calculates the load calculation unit 110 for each part the maximum load with which the selected turbine can be subjected during the time specified by the time specification unit 107 can be operated for a specified time (step S106 At this point, the load calculation unit can be used. 110 using the information stored in the maintenance information storage unit 115The stored maintenance information is used to calculate the maximum load with which the selected turbine can be operated.

[0061] Furthermore, the operating conditions calculation unit reads 108 the LCF consumption lifetime rate and the crack length associated with each part contained in the selected turbine, from the residual lifetime storage unit 104 (Step S107 Then the operating conditions calculation unit calculates 108 for each part, the number of possible activations in the operation according to the current operating plan (step S108 ). At this point, the operating condition calculation unit can 108 In addition to the LCF consumption lifetime rate and the crack length, the number of possible activations using the information stored in the maintenance information storage unit. 115 Specify stored maintenance information.

[0062] Then the time specification unit reads 107 the inspection time associated with the selected turbine from the inspection time storage unit 106 and specifies the number of activations from the current time to the inspection time based on the current operating plan (step S109 ).

[0063] If the turbine analysis device 1 the processing of step S102 to step S106 The operating plan generation unit determines the process for all turbines. 112 for all turbines, whether operation can be carried out according to the current operating plan until the next inspection period or not, (step S110 ). That is, the operational plan generation unit 112 determines whether all determination results are obtained by the operational admissibility determination unit 109 in step S105 YES, they are or are not, and those in step S108calculated number of possible activations greater than or equal to the number in step S109 specified number of activations. In the event that operation can be carried out according to the current operating plan until the next inspection time for all turbines (YES in step S110 ), because the operating plan does not need to be changed, the turbine analysis device terminates. 1 the process without creating a new operating plan.

[0064] On the other hand, in the event that a turbine cannot be operated according to the current operating plan until the next inspection time (NO in step S110 ), generates the operational plan generation unit 112 up to the inspection period, an operating plan for operating the turbine, which cannot be operated according to the operating plan, with which the load calculation unit 110calculated load or the load determined by the operating conditions calculation unit 108 calculated number of possible activations (step S111 The energy generation quantity forecast unit 111 acquires market energy demand information through the network and predicts the amount of energy that the power plant to be managed needs to generate (step S112 Then the operational plan generation unit generates 112 an operating plan of the turbine intended for inspection in order to meet the predicted energy output (step S113 In particular, the operational plan generation unit calculates 112 the energy generation quantity distribution of the turbines, in which the operation is determined according to the operating plan, in order to proceed in step S105 to be able to be carried out in order to achieve the results provided by the energy generation quantity forecasting unit 111 to meet the predicted energy production volume.

[0065] Then the output unit 113 the operational plan generation unit 112 generated operational plan from (step S114 ).

[0066] As described above, the turbine analysis device calculates 1 According to the present embodiment, the parameter related to the remaining service life of the turbine is calculated for each of the multitude of degradation types based on the turbine's load profile. In particular, the remaining service life calculation unit calculates 105 a creep consumption lifetime, which is a parameter related to creep deformation, an LCF lifetime consumption rate, which is a parameter related to LCF, and a crack length, which is a parameter related to crack growth.

[0067] Thus, the turbine analysis device 1 Manage the turbine's service life appropriately according to the load.

[0068] Furthermore, the turbine analysis device specifies 1 According to the present embodiment, the load range for each cycle of a load fluctuation in the turbine is determined, and an accumulated lifetime consumption rate is calculated by accumulating the LCF lifetime consumption rate calculated for each cycle based on the number of lifetime cycles related to a crack occurrence and the load range. Thus, the turbine analysis device can 1 The turbine analysis device calculates the number of activations until a crack occurs in the turbine. 1 According to the present embodiment, the crack length of the turbine is based on the load width in the case where the accumulated lifetime consumption rate 1 or larger. Thus, the turbine analysis device 1Calculate the number of activations until the crack length reaches the crack length relative to the design lifetime after a crack has occurred in the turbine due to the LCF.

[0069] Furthermore, the turbine analysis device calculates 1 According to the present embodiment, in the case where the turbine cannot continue operation until an inspection time with the load or the number of activations indicated by the current operating schedule, the load and the number of possible activations with which the turbine can continue operation until the inspection time can be determined. Thus, the turbine analysis device can 1 to modify the operating plan so that parts do not reach the end of their service life before the inspection time, in the event that the high-temperature parts may reach the end of their service life before the inspection time.

[0070] Furthermore, the turbine analysis device generates 1 According to the present embodiment, an operating plan for each of the plurality of turbines is generated based on the prediction of the amount of energy to be produced by the plurality of turbines. Thus, the turbine analysis device can 1 , even if the operating schedule of some of the turbines is changed in order not to reach the end of their service life, the operating schedules of the remaining turbines should be changed in such a way that the total amount of energy generated meets the predicted amount of energy. "Second example of implementation"

[0071] A second embodiment is described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

[0072] In the first embodiment, the turbine analysis device determines 1The operating load of each turbine. On the other hand, in the second embodiment, the turbine owner sets the operating load of each turbine. The turbine analysis device 1 calculated according to the second embodiment and represents the operating time of the turbine under the operating load entered by the owner.

[0073] Fig. Figure 5 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of a turbine analysis device according to a second embodiment. The turbine analysis device 1 According to the second embodiment, the inspection time storage unit does not include 106 , the time specification unit 107 , the operating permit determination unit 109 , the load calculation unit 110 , the energy generation quantity forecast unit 111 and the operational plan generation unit 112from the configuration of the first embodiment. On the other hand, the turbine analysis device comprises 1 According to the second embodiment, a load input unit is also included. 114 in addition to the configuration of the first embodiment.

[0074] The load input unit 114 The owner receives an input regarding the turbine's operating load.

[0075] The operating conditions calculation unit 108 calculates the operating time and the number of possible activations in the case in which the turbine is connected to the load input unit. 114 The entered operating load is operated based on the parameters related to the remaining lifetime storage unit. 104 Stored remaining lifespan.

[0076] The output unit 113 gives the operating time and the operating conditions calculation unit 108calculated number of possible activations.

[0077] Fig. Figure 6 is a flowchart showing a process for representing operating conditions by the turbine analysis device according to the second embodiment.

[0078] Fig. Figure 7 is a view showing a first example of the operating conditions presentation screen output by the turbine analysis device according to the second embodiment.

[0079] The turbine analysis device 1 The process for displaying operating time starts upon receiving a request for operating time display from the turbine owner. The operating condition calculation unit 108 reads the remaining creep life, the LCF lifetime consumption rate, and the crack length of the turbine, for which the operating time is to be represented, from the remaining lifetime storage unit. 104 (Step S201Then the output unit 113 to the display a presentation screen D1 to represent the operating time and the number of possible activations at the time of 100% load based on the remaining creep life, the LCF lifetime consumption rate and the crack length determined by the operating condition calculation unit 108 are read as a start screen, as in Fig. 7 shown, from (step S202 The presentation screen D1 is a screen including an operating time bar D110 , a load beam D120 and an advertisement D130 for the number of possible activations. The uptime bar D110 The operating time bar is an indicator that displays the operating time by its length. The longer the turbine's operating time, the longer the operating time bar. D110On the other hand, the shorter the operating time of the turbine, the shorter the length of the operating time bar. D110 The load beam D120 is a slider that receives input of the turbine's operating load. The load bar D120 includes a pull point D121 and a trail D122 The draw point D121 can select any load by being on the track D122 is pulled and released. The trail D122 represents the movable area of ​​the pull point D121 dar.

[0080] The load input unit 114 receives an input of a load by operating the pull point. D121 of the load beam D120 is received by the owner (step S203 Then the operating conditions calculation unit calculates 108 the operating time and the number of possible activations in the event that the turbine is connected to the load input unit 114The entered load is operated based on the parameter regarding the step S201 remaining service life read (step S204 ).

[0081] In particular, the operating conditions calculation unit calculates 108 the LMP value L1, by determining the residual creep life t1 and the nominal temperature T s , which in step S201 The values ​​read above are substituted into equation (4) and the operating time t is calculated. p , by using the calculated LMP value L1 and the temperature T p corresponding to the load input unit 114 The entered load is replaced in equation (5) described above. Furthermore, the operating condition calculation unit calculates 108the number of cycles until a crack occurs and the number of cycles until the crack length reaches the design lifetime from the occurrence of the crack, based on the load range of the operating pattern relative to the load input unit 114 The entered load is used, and the number of activations is calculated by adding both cycle counts. Furthermore, the operating condition calculation unit can be used. 108 the operating time and the number of possible activations using the information stored in the maintenance information storage unit 115 Calculate stored maintenance information in addition to the parameters related to the remaining service life.

[0082] Fig. Figure 8 is a view showing a second example of the operating conditions presentation screen output by the turbine analysis device according to the second embodiment.

[0083] Then the output unit 113 , as in Fig. 8 shown, to the display the presentation screen D1 to represent the operating conditions calculation unit 108 calculated operating time from (step S205 ). As in Fig. 8 shows when an operating load of less than 100% is applied to the load input unit 114 Once entered, the length of the operating time bar will be determined. D110 longer than the one in step S202 depicted. At this point, an increase from the one shown in step 1 is observed. S202 Operating time shown on the operating time bar D110 displayed in different formats (e.g., color, pattern, or the like). For example, in the case where the operating time at 100% load is 12,000 hours, as in Fig. Figure 7 shows the operating time at 80% load to be 14,000 hours, as shown in Figure 7. Fig. As shown in Figure 8, this amounts to 2,000 hours equivalent to one increment of the operating time bar. D110This is indicated by a different display. Furthermore, as in Fig. 8 shows when a drive load of less than 100% is applied to the load input unit 114 is entered, which is shown in the display D130 The number of possible activations displayed, depending on the situation, is greater than the number shown in step [number of steps]. S202 as shown. At this point, the display includes D130 For the number of possible activations, an increase in the number of possible activations.

[0084] Therefore, the owner can know the increase in operating time and the number of possible activations due to the change in load.

[0085] Then the load input unit determines 114 , whether or not the user has provided further input regarding the operating load (step S206 ). In the case where the operating load is fed into the load input unit 114is entered (YES in step S206 ), the turbine analysis device returns 1 the process step by step S204 It returns and recalculates the operating time and the number of possible activations. On the other hand, in the event that the operating load is not entered into the load input unit. 114 is entered (NO in step S206 ), terminates the turbine analysis device 1 the process.

[0086] As described above, the turbine analysis device receives 1 According to the present embodiment, the turbine load is inputted, and the operating time is calculated for the case in which the turbine is operated with that load. Thus, the turbine analysis device can 1 represent the operating time and the number of possible activations in the event that the owner changes the load on the turbine.

[0087] As described above, although an exemplary embodiment has been described in detail with reference to the drawings, a specific configuration is not limited to the above description, and various modifications or the like are possible.

[0088] In the embodiment described above, cracks up to the crack length relative to the design lifetime are permissible for each part of the turbine, but the present invention is not limited thereto. For example, in other embodiments, cracks in some or all turbine parts may not be acceptable. In this case, the turbine analysis device calculates 1 The number of cycles until a crack occurs is the number of possible activations, not the sum of the number of cycles until a crack occurs and the number of cycles until the crack length reaches the design lifetime from the time the crack occurs.

[0089] In the embodiment described above, the degradation types for which the remaining service life is to be calculated are creep deformation, LCF, and crack growth, but the present invention is not limited thereto. For example, in other embodiments, some of the degradation types may be used to calculate the remaining service life, or other degradation types (e.g., wear of a thermal barrier coating (TBC), high-temperature oxidation reduction, erosion, or the like) may be used to calculate the remaining service life.

[0090] In the embodiment described above, although the turbine analysis device 1The operating time and the number of possible activations of the entire turbine are calculated based on parameters related to the remaining service life of each part representing the turbine; the present invention is not limited thereto. For example, the turbine analysis device can 1 According to another embodiment, the remaining service life of the entire turbine can be calculated directly based on the design service life of the entire turbine, without calculating the remaining service life of each part of it.

[0091] In the embodiment described above, although the load specification unit 103 the calculation based on the heat balance calculation unit 102 The present invention is not limited to performing a calculated heat balance. For example, the load specification unit 103In another embodiment, the calculation is based on the data collected by the data collection unit. 101 Perform the collected operational data analysis. In this case, the turbine analysis device is needed. 1 the heat balance calculation unit 102 not include.

[0092] In the embodiment described above, although the case in which a turbine is the target device has been described, the present invention is not limited thereto. For example, in another embodiment, a different device, such as a turbocharger or a boiler that causes thermal degradation due to operation, could be the target device. As in the embodiment described above, using a turbine (in particular a gas turbine) with a large number of types and parts as the target device, the lifetime consumption of a part for each of a large number of parts can be managed in detail based on the usage history and lifetime consumption rate.Furthermore, even in the case of equipment where parts have different usage patterns and consumption rates, the optimal operation of the equipment can be accurately simulated.

[0093] Fig. Figure 9 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of a computer according to at least one embodiment.

[0094] The computer 900 includes a CPU 901 , a main storage device 902 , a secondary storage device 903 and an interface 904 .

[0095] The turbine analysis device described above 1 is on the computer 900 The operation of each of the processing units described above is carried out in the secondary storage device. 903 stored in the form of a program. The CPU 901 The program reads from the secondary storage device 903, develops the program in the main memory device 902 , and executes the preceding process according to the program. The CPU 901 secures in the main memory device 902 a memory area corresponding to each of the memory units described above, according to the program.

[0096] In at least one embodiment, the secondary storage device 903 An example of a non-transitory tangible medium. Other examples of non-transitory tangible media include magnetic disks, magneto-optical disks, CD-ROMs, DVD-ROMs, semiconductor memory, and the like, which are accessible via the interface 904 are connected. Furthermore, if this program is connected to the computer 900 If the transmission occurs via a communication line, then the computer 900 , which receives the transmitted program, the program in the main memory device 902develop and execute the aforementioned process.

[0097] Furthermore, the program can be used to implement some of the functions described above. Additionally, the program can be a so-called differential file (differential program), which combines the function described above with other functions already stored in the auxiliary memory device. 903 implemented in stored programs. Industrial applicability

[0098] According to the embodiment described above, the device condition estimator can appropriately manage the lifetime based on the load applied to the target device for each degradation factor. Reference symbol list 1: Turbine analysis device 101: Data Collection Unit 102: Heat balance calculation unit 103: Load specification unit 104: Remaining lifetime storage unit 105: Remaining lifetime calculation unit 106: Inspection time storage unit 107: Time specification unit 108: Operating Conditions Calculation Unit 109: Unit for determining operational suitability 110: Load calculation unit 111: Energy generation quantity forecast unit 112: Operational Plan Generation Unit 113: Output unit 114: Load input unit 900: Computer 901: CPU 902: Main memory device 903: Auxiliary storage device 904: Interface QUOTES INCLUDED IN THE DESCRIPTION

[0000] This list of documents cited by the applicant was automatically generated and is included solely for the reader's convenience. The list is not part of the German patent or utility model application. The DPMA accepts no liability for any errors or omissions. Cited patent literature

[0000] JP 2016235207

[0002] JP 201158933

[0004]

Claims

[1] Device condition estimator comprising: a state variable acquisition unit configured to acquire a state variable of a target device, including the temperature of the target device; a load specification unit configured to specify a load profile of the target device based on the state variable; and a remaining service life calculation unit configured to calculate a variety of parameters related to the remaining service life of the target device for each of a variety of degradation types, including crack initiation and crack growth, based on the load profile specified by the load specification unit. where the remaining service life calculation unit calculates one of the many parameters relating to crack growth for the case in which another parameter of the many parameters relating to crack occurrence indicates the occurrence of a crack in the target device. [2] Device condition estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the load specification unit specifies a load range for each cycle of a load fluctuation of the target device based on the state variable, and wherein the remaining lifetime calculation unit calculates an accumulated lifetime consumption rate as another parameter of the plurality of parameters, wherein the accumulated lifetime consumption rate is obtained by accumulating for each cycle a lifetime consumption rate calculated based on a number of lifetime cycles related to a crack occurrence in the target device and the load range specified by the load specification unit. [3] Device condition estimation device according to claim 2, wherein the remaining lifetime calculation unit calculates a crack length of the target device as another parameter of the multitude of parameters based on the load width specified by the load specification unit for the case in which the accumulated lifetime consumption rate is one or more. [4] Device condition estimation device according to one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: an operating condition calculation unit that is configured to calculate an operating condition for operating the target device based on the parameter calculated by the remaining lifetime calculation unit. [5] Device condition estimation device according to claim 4, further comprising: a time specification unit configured to specify a time during which operation of the target device must continue, wherein the operating condition calculation unit calculates an operating condition for continuing operation of the target device during the time specified by the time specification unit based on the parameter calculated by the remaining lifetime calculation unit. [6] Device condition estimation device according to claim 5, further comprising: an operating permit determination unit configured to determine whether operation can continue until a predetermined inspection time or not, in the event that the target device is operated under a predetermined operating condition, wherein the time specification unit specifies a time from the present time to the inspection time as the time during which the operation of the target device must continue, and wherein, in the event that the operating permit determination unit determines that operation cannot be continued, the operating condition calculation unit calculates an operating condition for continuing operation of the target device for the time specified by the time specification unit. [7] Device condition estimation device according to claim 4, further comprising: a load input unit configured to receive an input of a load to operate the target device, wherein the operating condition calculation unit calculates an operating condition when the target device is operated with the input load, based on the parameter related to the remaining service life. [8] Device condition estimation device according to any one of claims 4 to 7, further comprising: a maintenance information storage unit configured to store maintenance information generated during maintenance work on the target device, wherein the operating condition calculation unit calculates the operating condition based on the maintenance information stored in the maintenance information storage unit. [9] Device condition estimation method comprising: a step to acquire a state variable of a target device including a temperature of the target device; a step towards specifying a load profile of the target device based on the state variable; and a step to calculate a parameter related to the remaining service life of the target device for each of a variety of degradation types, including crack initiation and crack growth, based on the specified load profile, where the remaining service life calculation unit calculates one of the many parameters relating to crack growth for the case in which another parameter of the many parameters relating to crack occurrence indicates the occurrence of a crack in the target device. [10] Program that causes a computer to function as: a state variable acquisition unit configured to acquire a state variable of a target device, including the temperature of the target device; a load specification unit configured to specify a load profile of the target device based on the state variable; and a remaining service life calculation unit configured to calculate a parameter related to a remaining service life of the target device for each of a variety of degradation types, including crack initiation and crack growth, based on the load profile specified by the load specification unit. where the remaining service life calculation unit calculates one of the many parameters relating to crack growth for the case in which another parameter of the many parameters relating to crack occurrence indicates the occurrence of a crack in the target device.