Power generation management device

Abstract

To appropriately manage the power generation amount by accurately estimating the maximum power generation amount of a distributed power generation device, and to reduce costs by making additional data unnecessary when estimating the maximum power generation amount.SOLUTION: A power generation management device manages the amount of power generated by a distributed power generation device owned by a consumer. The power generation management device includes a communication unit that communicates with the distributed power generation device, an acquisition unit that acquires power consumption by the consumer and the power generation output amount of the distributed power generation device through communication, a processing unit that sets a power generation amount instruction value to be output from the distributed power generation device in response to a demand response request within a range not exceeding the maximum power generation amount of the distributed power generation device, outputs the power generation amount instruction value to the distributed power generation device through communication, and calculates an actual amount of demand response based on the acquired power consumption and power generation output amount, and an estimation unit that estimates the maximum power generation amount based on at least the power generation output amount of the acquired power consumption and power generation output amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] This specification discloses a power generation management apparatus. [Background technology]

[0002] Conventionally, in a distributed power generation system having a plurality of power generation devices and an operation control device (power generation management device) connected to each of the power generation devices so that they can communicate with each other, it has been proposed that the control device of each power generation device receives a power generation amount instruction value from the operation control device and controls the power generation device so that the power generation amount corresponds to the power generation amount instruction value, and transmits the maximum and minimum power generation amounts of the power generation device to the operation control device, and the operation control device sets the power generation amount instruction value within the range of the received maximum and minimum power generation amounts and transmits it to the control device of the power generation device (see, for example, Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] JP 2007-166746 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] The operation control device (power generation management device) described in Patent Document 1 needs to receive the maximum and minimum power generation amounts from each power generation device, which increases the amount of data communication and data storage, resulting in increased costs.

[0005] The primary objective of the power generation management device disclosed herein is to accurately estimate the maximum power generation capacity of a distributed power generation device, appropriately manage the power generation capacity of the distributed power generation device, and reduce costs by eliminating the need for additional data when estimating the maximum power generation capacity. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The power generation management device of the present disclosure employs the following means to achieve the above-mentioned main object.

[0007] The power generation management device of the present disclosure is A power generation management device that manages the amount of power generated by a distributed power generation device owned by a consumer, A communication unit that communicates with the distributed power generation device; an acquisition unit that acquires the power consumption by the consumer and the power generation output amount of the distributed power generation device through communication; a processing unit that sets a power generation instruction value to be output from the distributed power generation device in response to a demand response request within a range not exceeding a maximum power generation amount of the distributed power generation device, outputs the set power generation instruction value to the distributed power generation device via communication, and calculates an actual amount of demand response based on the power consumption and the power generation output amount acquired by the acquisition unit; an estimation unit that estimates the maximum power generation amount based on at least the power generation output amount of the power consumption and the power generation output amount acquired by the acquisition unit; The gist of the project is to provide the following:

[0008] In the power generation management device disclosed herein, a power generation instruction value to be output from the distributed power generation device in response to a demand response request is set within a range not exceeding the maximum power generation of the distributed power generation device, and is output to the distributed power generation device via communication, and the power consumption of the consumer and the power generation output of the distributed power generation device are acquired via communication to calculate the actual amount of the demand response. In this power generation management device, the maximum power generation is estimated based on at least the power generation output of the acquired power consumption and power generation output. This makes it possible to accurately estimate the maximum power generation of the distributed power generation device, and to appropriately manage the power generation of the distributed power generation device. In addition, the data used to estimate the maximum power generation is for calculating the actual amount of the demand response, and the maximum power generation can be estimated without requiring additional data. Therefore, compared to directly acquiring the maximum power generation from the distributed power generation device, the amount of data communication and data storage can be reduced, and costs can be reduced. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a distributed power generation system including a power generation management device. [Diagram 2] 5 is a flowchart showing an example of a data reception processing routine executed by the power generation management device. [Diagram 3] 4 is a flowchart showing an example of a power generation amount instruction control routine executed by the power generation management device. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing the execution timing of power generation amount instruction control and the execution timing of maximum power generation amount prediction control. [Diagram 5] 4 is a flowchart showing an example of a day-ahead maximum power generation amount prediction control routine. [Figure 6] FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of power consumption and actual power generation values ​​outside the DR period. [Figure 7] 13 is a flowchart showing an example of a maximum power generation amount prediction control routine during DR. [Figure 8] FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a power generation amount instruction value and a power generation amount actual value within a DR period. [Figure 9] 10 is a flowchart showing a modified example of a day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0010] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS An embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0011] 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a distributed power generation system 1 including a power generation management device 10. The distributed power generation system 1 includes a supply and demand management device 2 installed by an electric power company, distributed power generation devices (fuel cell systems 30) owned by consumers who have concluded a demand response contract, the power generation management device 10 of this embodiment that manages the amount of power generated by each distributed power generation device, and a communication device 20 that controls communication between the distributed power generation devices and the power generation management device 10. The power generation management device 10 and the communication device 20 are communicatively connected via a network 5 such as the Internet. Similarly, the power generation management device 10 and the supply and demand management device 2 are communicatively connected via a network.

[0012] The supply and demand management device 2 predicts a surplus or shortage of power supply based on the power generation status and future power generation plans of the power company, current weather, future weather forecast, current power consumption, and future predicted power consumption, and requests a demand response (DR) to increase or decrease the demand for electricity according to the prediction result. That is, when a shortage of power supply is predicted, the supply and demand management device 2 requests the power management device 20 to perform a downward DR to reduce the demand for electricity. Also, when an excess of power supply is predicted, the supply and demand management device 2 requests the power management device 20 to perform an upward DR to increase the demand for electricity.

[0013] The power generation management device 10 is a server device including a CPU 11, a ROM 12, a RAM 13, a storage 14 (HDD or SDD), and a communication unit 15. The communication unit 15 is communicatively connected to the supply and demand management device 2 and also to a communication device 20. The communication device 20 is connected to a distributed distributed power generation device (fuel cell system 30), and the communication unit 15 exchanges data and signals with the distributed distributed power generation device via the communication device 20. The power generation management device 10 receives a demand response (DR) request (such as a DR start timing, a DR period, and a total power demand during the DR period) from the supply and demand management device 2, determines a power generation instruction value to be generated by each distributed distributed power generation device so that a power generation amount according to the total power demand can be obtained from the multiple distributed distributed power generation devices under its jurisdiction, and transmits the power generation instruction value to each distributed distributed power generation device.

[0014] Examples of the distributed power generation device include a fuel cell system, an engine generator, a solar power generation system, etc. In this embodiment, a fuel cell system 30 is used as the distributed power generation device.

[0015] The fuel cell system 30 includes a fuel cell module 31 including a fuel cell stack that generates electricity by an electrochemical reaction between an anode gas and a cathode gas, a reformer that uses water vapor to reform raw fuel gas (e.g., natural gas or LP gas) to generate an anode gas, and an evaporator that evaporates reforming water and supplies it to the reformer. The fuel cell system 30 also includes various auxiliary devices 32, such as a gas pump that supplies raw fuel gas to the reformer, a water pump that supplies reforming water to the evaporator, and an air blower that supplies air as a cathode gas to the fuel cell stack, a power conditioner 33 (DC / DC converter and inverter) connected to the output terminal of the fuel cell stack, and a control device 34 that controls the entire system. The fuel cell stack has a plurality of solid oxide type single cells including an electrolyte, an anode arranged on one side of the electrolyte, and a cathode arranged on the other side of the electrolyte. The anode gas is supplied from the reformer to the anode, and the cathode gas (air) is supplied from the air blower to the cathode. The fuel cell stack generates power by generating oxide ions at the cathode, which then pass through the electrolyte and react with hydrogen and the like at the anode. The output terminal of the power conditioner 33 is connected to the power grid via a relay, and the fuel cell system 30 is interconnected with the power grid to supply the power generated by the fuel cell stack to the consumer's load (electrical appliances). In addition, the fuel cell system 30 allows reverse power flow to the power grid during a demand response (DR) period, and supplies surplus power generated by the fuel cell stack to the power grid.

[0016] The control device 34 includes a CPU, ROM, RAM, and input / output ports. Detection signals from various sensors, such as a temperature sensor that detects the temperature of the fuel cell stack and a flow rate sensor that detects the flow rate of the raw fuel gas, are input to the control device 34 via the input port. In addition, the control device 34 outputs control signals to the various auxiliary devices 32 (gas pump, water pump, air blower, etc.) and control signals to the power conditioner 33 via the output port.

[0017] Outside the demand response period (outside the DR period), the control device 34 sets the smaller of the load required output required by the load and the rated output as the power generation target value, and controls the supply amounts of raw fuel gas, reforming water, and air so that the fuel cell stack generates power at an amount of power generation that matches the set power generation target value. The control of the supply amount of raw fuel gas is performed by setting a current command based on the power generation target value, setting a target gas flow rate so that a current corresponding to the set current command is output from the fuel cell stack, and controlling the gas pump. The control of the supply amount of reforming water is performed by setting a target reforming water flow rate so that steam is supplied at a predetermined ratio to the raw fuel gas, and controlling the water pump so that reforming water at the set target reforming water flow rate is supplied. The control of the supply amount of air is performed by setting a target air flow rate by feedback control so that the temperature of the fuel cell stack matches the target temperature, and controlling the air blower so that air is supplied at the set target air flow rate.

[0018] On the other hand, during the demand response period (DR period), the control device 34 sets the smaller of the power generation instruction value received from the power generation management device 10 and the rated output as the power generation target value, and controls the supply amounts of raw fuel gas, reforming water, and air so that the fuel cell stack generates power at the set power generation target value.

[0019] Here, when the temperature of the fuel cell stack rises above the appropriate temperature range, the control device 34 executes output suppression control to protect the fuel cell stack by setting the power generation target value to an upper limit of an output suppression value, which is a power generation output amount lower than the rated output, and suppressing the power generation output amount. As the deterioration of the fuel cell stack progresses due to aging use, the temperature of the fuel cell stack tends to rise, so the power generation output amount is suppressed to a greater extent as the deterioration of the fuel cell stack progresses. Therefore, when the output suppression control is activated, the control device 34 controls the fuel cell stack to generate power by setting the power generation target value to the smaller of the load request output and the output suppression value outside the DR period, and setting the power generation target value to the smaller of the power generation instruction value and the output suppression value within the DR period.

[0020] Next, the operation of the power generation management device 10 in the distributed power generation system 1 thus configured will be described. First, the operation of receiving necessary data from each fuel cell system 30 will be described, followed by the operation of setting a power generation instruction value for each fuel cell system 30. Figure 2 is a flow chart showing an example of a data reception processing routine executed by the power generation management device 10. This processing is repeatedly executed at predetermined time intervals.

[0021] When the data reception processing routine is executed, the CPU 11 of the power generation management device 10 performs a process of receiving data from each fuel cell system 30 via the communication device 20 (step S10). In this embodiment, the received data includes the power consumption by the consumer, the actual power generation amount of the fuel cell system 30, and the accumulated operation time of the fuel cell system 30. Next, the CPU 11 judges whether or not it is within the DR period (step S12). If the CPU 11 judges that it is outside the DR period, it stores the received data in the storage 14 as data outside the DR period (step S14) and ends the data reception processing routine. On the other hand, if the CPU 11 judges that it is within the DR period, it stores the received data in the storage 14 as data within the DR period (step S16) and ends the data reception processing routine.

[0022] Next, there will be described an operation for setting a power generation instruction value for each fuel cell system 30. Fig. 3 is a flow chart showing an example of a power generation instruction control routine executed by the power generation management device 10. This process is repeatedly executed at predetermined time intervals.

[0023] When the power generation instruction control routine is executed, the CPU 11 of the power generation management device 10 first sets the required power generation amount per unit time of the fuel cell systems 30 under its management based on the total power demand (total power demand amount within the period of the demand response) received from the supply and demand management device 2 (step S100). The required power generation amount per unit time is set for each predetermined time so that the cumulative value of the total power generation output amount of the fuel cell systems 30 matches the total power demand amount within the period of the demand response. Next, the CPU 11 acquires the maximum power generation amount and the minimum power generation amount of each fuel cell system 30 (step S102). The minimum power generation amount is acquired by reading the minimum power generation amount (e.g., 0 W) registered in advance in the storage 14. The maximum power generation amount is acquired by reading from the storage 14 the maximum power generation amount predicted by the day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine or the maximum power generation prediction control routine during DR, which will be described later, and stored in the storage 14.

[0024] Next, the CPU 11 sets a power generation instruction value for each fuel cell system 30 so as to distribute the required power generation within an allowable range determined by the maximum power generation and the minimum power generation for each fuel cell system 30, and stores the set power generation instruction value in the storage 14 (step S104). For example, consider a case where the required power generation is 1800 W, and the maximum power generation of the three fuel cell systems 30 under its control is 700 W (rated output), 700 W (rated output), and 400 W (output suppression value), respectively. In this case, by considering the maximum power generation (output suppression value), the required power generation of 1800 W can be distributed to the three fuel cell systems 30 in the order of 700 W, 700 W, and 400 W. On the other hand, if the required power generation of 1800 W is distributed equally to the three fuel cell systems 30 without considering the maximum power generation (output suppression value), it is distributed to each of the three fuel cell systems 30 so that the required power generation is 600 W. However, in the fuel cell system 30 for which an output suppression value of 400 W is set, the power generation output is limited to 400 W, so the total power generation output of the three fuel cell systems 30 as a whole is 1600 W, resulting in a shortfall of 200 W compared to the required power generation of 1800 W. Therefore, by distributing the required power generation in consideration of the maximum power generation of each fuel cell system 30, the total actual power generation value of each fuel cell system 30 can be brought closer to the required power generation.

[0025] After setting the power generation instruction value for each fuel cell system 30, the CPU 11 transmits the set power generation instruction value to each corresponding fuel cell system 30, as well as the demand response (DR) start timing and DR period (end timing) to each fuel cell system 30 (step S106), and waits for the demand response to start (step S108). When the demand response start timing arrives, the control device 34 of the fuel cell system 30 that has received the power generation instruction value sets the smaller of the received power generation instruction value and the maximum power generation (rated output or output suppression value) as the power generation target value, as described above, and controls the fuel cell stack to generate power.

[0026] When the demand response is started, the CPU 11 reads from the storage 14 the most recent power consumption by the consumer and the actual power generation amount of the fuel cell system 30 received from each fuel cell system 30 in the above-mentioned data reception processing routine (step S110), and calculates the actual amount of the demand response (DR actual amount) by subtracting the total actual power generation amount, which is the sum of the actual power generation amounts, from the total power consumption, which is the sum of the power consumptions in each fuel cell system 30 (step S112).Then, the CPU 11 stores the calculated DR actual amount and the immediately preceding power generation amount instruction value of each fuel cell system 30 as data within the DR period in the storage 14 (step S114), and determines whether the demand response has ended (step S116).

[0027] When the CPU 11 determines that the demand response has not ended, it reads the most recent maximum and minimum power generation amounts and the DR performance amount of each fuel cell system 30 from the storage 14 (step S118), subtracts the DR performance amount (accumulated value) during the current DR period from the total power demand amount acquired in step S100, and calculates the remaining total power demand amount, which is the remaining total power demand amount (step S120). Then, the CPU 11 determines whether the newly calculated remaining total power demand amount is greater than the value 0 (step S122). When the CPU 11 determines that the remaining total power demand amount is greater than the value 0, it sets the required power generation amount per unit time based on the remaining total power demand amount (step S124), distributes the required power generation amount to each fuel cell system 30 within an allowable range determined by the respective maximum and minimum power generation amounts, and sets a power generation amount instruction value for each fuel cell system 30 (step S126), transmits the set power generation amount instruction value to each corresponding fuel cell system 30 (step S128), and returns to step S110 to repeat the process. In the process of repeating steps S110 to S128, if the CPU 11 determines in step S116 that the demand response has ended or determines in step S122 that the total remaining power demand is equal to or less than 0, the CPU 11 ends the power generation instruction control routine. In this way, the CPU 11 distributes the required power generation amount per unit time to each fuel cell system 30 within the allowable range determined by the respective maximum and minimum power generation amounts at predetermined time intervals until the DR period ends or the total remaining power demand becomes 0. This makes it possible to bring the total power generation output amount of the entire fuel cell systems 30 during the DR period closer to the total power demand, thereby improving the accuracy of the demand response.

[0028] Here, the maximum power generation is initially the rated output, but due to the rise in the temperature of the fuel cell stack accompanying the progression of deterioration of the fuel cell stack, the output suppression control suppresses the power generation output to a lower value (output suppression value) than the rated output. In this embodiment, the maximum power generation is predicted by the power generation management device 10 based on data for DR performance calculation (power consumption and power generation performance value) received from each fuel cell system 30. Therefore, the maximum power generation (rated output or output suppression value) can be estimated without requiring additional data. As a result, compared to the case where the maximum power generation is directly received from each fuel cell system 30, the amount of data communication and the amount of data storage can be reduced, and an increase in costs can be suppressed. As shown in FIG. 4, the maximum power generation is predicted from data received from a predetermined day before (for example, one month before) to the day before (a day before maximum power generation prediction control), and from data received during the DR period (a maximum power generation prediction control during DR). Details of the day before maximum power generation prediction control and the maximum power generation prediction control during DR will be described below in order.

[0029] 5 is a flowchart showing an example of a day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine executed by the power generation management device 10. This routine is executed on the day before the DR period.

[0030] When the day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine is executed, the CPU 11 of the power generation management device 10 first sets the fuel cell system 30 (target device) for which the maximum power generation is predicted (step S200). Next, the CPU 11 reads the performance data of the target device from the storage 14 (step S202). In this embodiment, the performance data includes the accumulated operating time, power consumption, and power generation performance value. Note that the performance data does not need to include the accumulated operating time. In this case, the process of step S204 is omitted.

[0031] Next, the CPU 11 determines whether the accumulated operating time of the target device is equal to or greater than a threshold (e.g., 10,000 hours) (step S204), and if the accumulated operating time is less than the threshold, sets the rated output as the maximum power generation amount of the target device (step S206). This is because, in the fuel cell system 30 of this embodiment, if the accumulated operating time is less than the threshold, the fuel cell stack is not deteriorated and output suppression control is not activated.

[0032] When the CPU 11 determines that the cumulative operation time of the target device is equal to or greater than the threshold, it refers to data outside the DR period from a predetermined day before to the previous day, and searches for a timing when the power consumption by the consumer is equal to or greater than the rated output of the fuel cell system 30 plus a predetermined value α (step S208). Here, the predetermined value α is an offset value for preventing the power generation output from exceeding the power consumption outside the DR period, causing a reverse power flow. Therefore, the process of step S208 searches for a timing when the fuel cell system 30 is operating at the rated output unless the output suppression control is operating. Next, the CPU 11 determines whether or not there is a period during which the power consumption is equal to or greater than the rated output plus the predetermined value α continues for a predetermined time (for example, several minutes or tens of minutes) or more (step S210).

[0033] When the CPU 11 determines that there is a period in which the power consumption is equal to or greater than the rated output plus a predetermined value α, the CPU 11 extracts the power generation amount actual value for the final predetermined time in the period (step S212). The power generation amount actual value for the final predetermined time is extracted from the period in which the power consumption is equal to or greater than the rated output plus a predetermined value α, because the fuel cell system 30 has a low response performance in increasing the output, and it takes a maximum of a predetermined time (for example, several minutes or several tens of minutes) to increase the output to the rated output in response to the load. In addition, when there are multiple applicable periods, the power generation amount actual value is extracted from the most recent period among the multiple periods. This is because it is considered that the prediction accuracy is higher when the maximum power generation amount is predicted using the power generation amount actual value at a timing as close as possible to the next DR period. Next, the CPU 11 determines whether the extracted power generation amount actual value (average value) for the final predetermined time is less than the output obtained by subtracting a predetermined value β from the rated output (step S214). The predetermined value β is set to a value of several watts or a dozen watts in consideration of the fluctuation of the power generation output of the fuel cell system 30. The predetermined value β may be 0. If the power generation actual value is equal to or greater than the output obtained by subtracting the predetermined value β from the rated output, the CPU 11 sets the maximum power generation amount to the rated output (step S206). On the other hand, if the power generation actual value is less than the output obtained by subtracting the predetermined value β from the rated output, the CPU 11 sets the maximum power generation amount to the power generation actual value (step S216). FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the power consumption and the power generation actual value outside the DR period. If the power consumption is equal to or greater than the power obtained by adding the predetermined value α to the rated output, the fuel cell system 30 should be operating the fuel cell stack at the rated output unless the output suppression control is operating. Therefore, when the power generation actual value is less than the output obtained by subtracting the predetermined value β from the rated output, the power generation output is considered to be suppressed to the power generation actual value by the output suppression value. Therefore, the power generation actual value is set to the maximum power generation amount in this case. In this way, the output suppression value can be accurately determined from data on the power consumption and power generation results from a predetermined day before to the previous day.

[0034] When the CPU 11 determines in step S210 that there is no period in which the power consumption is equal to or greater than the rated output plus a predetermined value α and continues for a predetermined time or more, it determines that it is unclear whether the output suppression control of the target device is being executed, and sets the maximum power generation to the rated output (step S206). In this case, if the output suppression control is being executed, there is a possibility that a power generation command value exceeding the maximum power generation (output suppression value) is set. However, it has been confirmed by a demonstration experiment that such a possibility is very low, and even if a power generation command value exceeding the output suppression value is set, the control device 34 of the target device that receives the power generation command value sets the smaller of the power generation command value and the output suppression value as the power generation target value and performs control, so no problem occurs. However, if the power generation amount exceeding the output suppression value is distributed to some of the fuel cell systems 30, the excess power generation amount is lost, and the total actual power generation amount may be less than the required power generation amount.

[0035] After setting the maximum power generation amount for the target device in this way, the CPU 11 stores the set maximum power generation amount in the storage 14 (step S218). Then, the CPU 11 judges whether or not the prediction of the maximum power generation amount has been completed for all fuel cell systems 30 (step S220). If the CPU 11 judges that there is a fuel cell system 30 for which the maximum power generation amount has not yet been predicted, it sets the relevant fuel cell system 30 as the target device (step S222), returns to step S202, and repeats the process of predicting the maximum power generation amount. On the other hand, when the CPU 11 has completed the prediction of the maximum power generation amount for all fuel cell systems 30, it ends the previous day maximum power generation prediction control routine. This makes it possible to accurately predict the maximum power generation amount of the target device based on data outside the DR period from a predetermined day before to the previous day.

[0036] Next, the maximum power generation amount prediction control during the DR will be described. Fig. 7 is a flow chart showing an example of a maximum power generation amount prediction control routine during the DR. This routine is repeatedly executed at predetermined time intervals during the DR period.

[0037] When the DR maximum power generation prediction control routine is executed, the CPU 11 of the power generation management device 10 first sets a target device (step S300). Next, the CPU 11 reads the current power generation actual value of the target device and the power generation instruction value transmitted to the target device immediately before from the storage 14 (step S302).

[0038] Next, CPU 11 judges whether the target device is in an output increase period in which the power generation output is being increased (step S304). This process can be performed, for example, by judging whether the deviation obtained by subtracting the power generation actual value from the power generation command value is equal to or greater than 0. If CPU 11 judges that the target device is in an output increase period, it judges whether a predetermined period has passed since the start of the output increase period (step S306). If CPU 11 judges that the target device is not in an output increase period, or judges that the predetermined period has not passed since the start of the output increase period even if the target device is in an output increase period, it judges that the timing is not yet right for predicting the maximum power generation amount, and provisionally sets the maximum power generation amount to the rated output (step S312).

[0039] On the other hand, when the CPU 11 determines that a predetermined period has elapsed since the start of the output increase period, it compares the power generation actual value (average) at the final predetermined time of the output increase period with the power generation instruction value (step S308) and determines whether the power generation actual value is less than the power generation instruction value minus a predetermined value γ (step S310). Here, the power generation actual value at the final predetermined time of the output increase period of a predetermined period or more is compared with the power generation instruction value in consideration of the time required for the fuel cell system 30 to increase the output to the power generation instruction value. The predetermined value γ is set to a value of several W or a dozen W in consideration of the fluctuation of the power generation output of the fuel cell system 30. The predetermined value γ may be a value of 0. When the CPU 11 determines that the power generation actual value is equal to or greater than the power generation instruction value minus the predetermined value γ, it sets the rated output to the maximum power generation (step S312). On the other hand, when the CPU 11 determines that the power generation actual value is less than the power generation instruction value, it sets the power generation actual value to the maximum power generation (step S314). FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of power consumption and actual power generation value during the DR period. During the DR period, reverse power flow is permitted, and the fuel cell system 30 should be operating the fuel cell stack at the power generation command value unless output suppression control is operating. Therefore, when the actual power generation value is less than the power generation command value minus a predetermined value γ, it is considered that the power generation output is suppressed to the actual power generation value by the output suppression value. Therefore, the actual power generation value is set as the maximum power generation in this case. In this way, the maximum power generation (output suppression value) can be accurately calculated from the actual power generation value and the power generation command value during DR.

[0040] After setting the maximum power generation amount for the target device in this way, the CPU 11 stores the set maximum power generation amount in the storage 14 (step S316). Then, the CPU 11 judges whether or not the prediction of the maximum power generation amount has been completed for all fuel cell systems 30 (step S318). If the CPU 11 judges that there is a fuel cell system 30 for which the maximum power generation amount has not yet been predicted, it sets the corresponding fuel cell system 30 as the target device (step S320), returns to step S302, and repeats the process of predicting the maximum power generation amount. On the other hand, when the CPU 11 has completed the prediction of the maximum power generation amount for all fuel cell systems 30, it ends the DR maximum power generation prediction control routine. This makes it possible to accurately predict the maximum power generation amount based on the actual power generation amount value during the DR period.

[0041] In the above-described embodiment, the day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine illustrated in FIG. 5 is executed as the day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control performed on the day before the demand response. However, a day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine according to another embodiment illustrated in FIG. 9 may be executed. The day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine according to the other embodiment is similar to the DR maximum power generation prediction control routine illustrated in FIG. 7 except that the power generation actual value used for comparison with the power generation instruction value in step S308 is not data during the DR period of the day, but data during the DR period from a predetermined day before to the day before. Therefore, the same step numbers are assigned to the same processes as those in the DR maximum power generation prediction control routine of FIG. 7 among the processes in the day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine of FIG. 9, and the description thereof will be omitted to avoid duplication.

[0042] In the day-ahead maximum power generation prediction control routine according to another embodiment, the CPU 11 of the power generation management device 10 sets the target device (step S300), and then reads data of the target device including the power generation actual value and the power generation instruction value from the storage 14 (step S400). Next, the CPU 11 judges whether there is data for the DR period from a predetermined day before to the previous day (step S402). If the CPU 11 judges that there is no data for the DR period, it judges that the maximum power generation cannot be predicted, and sets the rated output to the maximum power generation (step S312). On the other hand, if the CPU 11 judges that there is data for the DR period, it extracts the power generation actual value for the last predetermined time in the output increase period during which the output increase has continued for a predetermined period or more within the DR period (step S404). Note that, if there are multiple output increase periods, the CPU 11 extracts the power generation actual value for the most recent output increase period. This is because it is considered that the prediction accuracy is higher when the maximum power generation is predicted using the power generation actual value at a timing as close as possible to the next DR period. Then, the CPU 11 compares the extracted power generation amount actual value (average) for the last predetermined time with the power generation amount indication value, and judges whether the power generation amount actual value is less than the power generation amount indication value minus the predetermined value γ (step S310). If the power generation amount actual value is equal to or greater than the power generation amount indication value minus the predetermined value γ, the CPU 11 sets the rated output to the maximum power generation amount (step S312), and if the power generation amount actual value is less than the power generation amount indication value minus the predetermined value γ, sets the power generation amount actual value to the maximum power generation amount (step S314). The maximum power generation amount of the target device can be predicted with high accuracy by the power generation amount actual value and the power generation amount indication value during the DR period from the predetermined day before the demand response to the day before. Since the data during the DR period is used to calculate the DR amount, additional data for predicting the maximum power generation amount is not necessary. Therefore, the amount of data communication and the amount of data storage can be reduced, and costs can be reduced.

[0043] The above describes the form for implementing the present disclosure using embodiments, but the present disclosure is not limited to these embodiments in any way, and it goes without saying that the present disclosure can be implemented in various forms without departing from the gist of the present disclosure. [Industrial Applicability]

[0044] The present disclosure is applicable to the manufacturing industry of power generation management devices and distributed power generation systems. [Explanation of symbols]

[0045] 10 power generation management device, 11 CPU (acquisition unit, processing unit, estimation unit), 15 communication unit, 30 fuel cell system (distributed power generation device).

Claims

1. A power generation management device that manages the amount of power generated by a distributed power generation device owned by a consumer, A communication unit that communicates with the distributed power generation device; an acquisition unit that acquires the power consumption by the consumer and the power generation output amount of the distributed power generation device through communication; a processing unit that sets a power generation instruction value to be output from the distributed power generation device in response to a demand response request within a range not exceeding a maximum power generation amount of the distributed power generation device, outputs the set power generation instruction value to the distributed power generation device via communication, and calculates an actual amount of demand response based on the power consumption and the power generation output amount acquired by the acquisition unit; an estimation unit that estimates the maximum power generation amount based on at least the power generation output amount of the power consumption and the power generation output amount acquired by the acquisition unit; A power generation management device comprising:

2. The power generation management device according to claim 1, the distributed power generation device is capable of generating power in response to a load up to a rated output, and suppresses the power generation output when a predetermined condition is met; the estimation unit estimates, as the maximum power generation amount, the rated output or an output suppression value which is a power generation amount when the distributed power generation device suppresses a power generation output; Power generation management device.

3. The power generation management device according to claim 2, the estimation unit estimates the rated output or the output suppression value as the maximum power generation amount based on the power generation output amount when the power consumption is equal to or greater than a threshold value exceeding a rated output of the distributed power generation device, among the power consumption and the power generation output amount acquired by the acquisition unit during a non-implementation period during which the demand response is not implemented within a past predetermined period, Power generation management device.

4. The power generation management device according to claim 2, the estimation unit estimates the rated output or the output suppression value as the maximum power generation amount based on a comparison between the power generation output amount acquired by the acquisition unit during a period in the past during which the demand response was performed and the power generation amount instruction value set by the processing unit. Power generation management device.

5. The power generation management device according to any one of claims 2 to 4, the estimation unit estimates the rated output or the output suppression value as the maximum power generation amount based on a comparison between the power generation output amount acquired by the acquisition unit and the power generation amount instruction value set by the processing unit during the implementation of the demand response, the processing unit sets the power generation amount instruction value so as not to exceed the maximum power generation amount estimated by the estimation unit during the implementation of the demand response. Power generation management device.

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