Design change support device and design change support method

Abstract

To provide a technology that enables sustainable product design where future predictions are also taken into account.SOLUTION: A design change support device comprises: an input information receiving unit for receiving one or more of design information, manufacturing costs, production plans, and environmental load amounts of products to be produced during an evaluation period, target values for a prescribed evaluation value related to costs or environments, and constraint conditions; an external information acquisition unit for acquiring one or more of reserves prediction information, circularity information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction information, and news information for materials which are used as raw materials for the product; a target achievement prediction calculation unit for calculating a predicted value for the evaluation value related to costs or environments; a purchasing risk extraction unit for extracting purchasing risks of the materials using one or more of the reserves prediction information, circularity information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction information, and news information; and a design change proposal unit for presenting the predicted value and a design change plan that improves one or more of the extracted purchasing risks.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a design change support device and a design change support method.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, against the backdrop of the growing momentum to achieve a sustainable society and resource depletion, etc., for a company to stably produce products, it is necessary to plan and design products, manufacturing processes, manufacturing environments, and production volumes in consideration of the stable supply of materials and the recycling of resources.

[0003] The information processing apparatus, procurement source display program, and procurement source display method described in Patent Document 1 are technologies for extracting procurement sources in consideration of social and economic risks based on evaluations such as the degree of market occupancy. In Patent Document 1, taking the environmental impact related to the depletion of mineral resources as an example, a function is described for extracting alternative materials for the most affected materials and displaying a candidate list together with the procurement source evaluation results of the alternative materials.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] However, in the technology described in Patent Document 1, although there is a function of proposing alternative materials for depleted resources, there are cases where alternative materials cannot be found, or even if found, they may not have the same properties or prices. If the properties are not the same, it may affect the lifespan, recyclability, and productivity of the product. Also, when the price soars, it is necessary to consider the corresponding impact. The object of the present invention is to provide a user with a future prediction of an evaluation value related to cost or environment considering external factors such as resource reserves and price fluctuations, and a design change plan based on the future prediction.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] This application includes a plurality of means for solving at least a part of the above problems. For example, they are as follows. A design change support device according to one aspect of the present invention for solving the above problems includes design information, manufacturing cost, production plan during the evaluation period, and environmental load amount related to manufacturing for products produced during a predetermined evaluation period, at least any one of a target value for a predetermined evaluation value related to cost or environment, and a constraint condition; an input information reception unit that receives at least any one of them; an external information acquisition unit that acquires at least any one of reserve amount prediction information, circulation information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction information, and news information for materials that are raw materials of the product, and emission unit information; a target achievement degree prediction calculation unit that calculates a future predicted value including the evaluation period for the evaluation value related to cost or environment; a purchase risk extraction unit that extracts the purchase risk of the material using at least any one of the reserve amount prediction information, the circulation information, the price fluctuation history, the price fluctuation prediction information, and the news information; and a design change proposal unit that presents a design change plan for improving at least any one of the predicted value and the extracted purchase risk. It is characterized by comprising these.

Effects of the Invention

[0007] According to the present invention, it becomes possible to perform sustainable product design taking into account future predictions. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will be clarified by the description of the embodiments for carrying out the following invention.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0008]

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Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0009] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The examples are illustrative for explaining the present invention, and for the sake of clarity of explanation, appropriate omissions and simplifications have been made. The present invention can be implemented in various other forms. Unless otherwise particularly limited, each component may be singular or plural.

[0010] The positions, sizes, shapes, ranges, etc. of the components shown in the drawings may not represent the actual positions, sizes, shapes, ranges, etc. in order to facilitate the understanding of the invention. For this reason, the present invention is not necessarily limited to the positions, sizes, shapes, ranges, etc. disclosed in the drawings.

[0011] As examples of various types of information, it may be described using expressions such as "table", "list", "queue", etc., but the various types of information may be represented by data structures other than these. For example, various types of information such as "XX table", "XX list", "XX queue" may be referred to as "XX information". When explaining identification information, expressions such as "identification information", "identifier", "name", "ID", "number" are used, but these can be mutually substituted. Also, the identification information described by these expressions is represented using symbols, numerical values, natural language, or combinations thereof in the embodiments, but the identification information may be in other forms.

[0012] When there are a plurality of components having the same or similar functions, they may be described with the same reference numeral and different subscripts. Also, when it is not necessary to distinguish these plurality of components, the subscripts may be omitted in the description.

[0013] In the embodiments, the processing performed by executing a program may be described. Here, the computer executes the program by a processor (e.g., CPU, GPU), and performs the processing defined by the program while using storage resources (e.g., memory) and interface devices (e.g., communication ports), etc. Therefore, the entity performing the processing by executing the program may be the processor. Similarly, the entity performing the processing by executing the program may be a controller, device, system, computer, or node having a processor. The entity performing the processing by executing the program may be an arithmetic unit and may include a dedicated circuit for performing a specific process. Here, the dedicated circuit is, for example, an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), a CPLD (Complex Programmable Logic Device), etc.

[0014] The program may be installed in a computer from a program source. The program source may be, for example, a program distribution server or a computer-readable storage medium. When the program source is a program distribution server, the program distribution server includes a processor and a storage resource for storing the program to be distributed, and the processor of the program distribution server may distribute the program to be distributed to other computers. Also, in the embodiments, two or more programs may be realized as one program, or one program may be realized as two or more programs.

[0015] Also, although the present invention is typically realized by an information processing apparatus, it may be realized as a platform having the functions of the present invention.

[0016] [Description of Configuration Example] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a design change support system. The design change support system 10 includes, for example, a design change support apparatus 100, a network 50, and a computer 300.

[0017] The network 50 is, for example, any one of a communication network using all or part of a general public line such as a LAN (Local Area Network), a WAN (Wide Area Network), a VPN (Virtual Private Network), the Internet, a mobile phone communication network, or a combined network thereof. Note that the network 50 may be a wireless communication network such as Wi-Fi (registered trademark) or 5G (Generation).

[0018] Note that the design change support apparatus 100 is not limited to the computer 300, and is connected so as to be accessible to a publicly available database on the Internet, a database that can be used by contract, or a news site or the like connected via the network 50.

[0019] The computer 300 is a computer of an organization such as an enterprise that owns or uses the design change support device 100. The computer 300 includes a memory 310 and a processing unit 320.

[0020] The memory 310 includes any one or more of the design information 311 of products sold by an organization such as an enterprise, the production plan information 312 for a predetermined period, the cost information 313 related to the manufacture or purchase of each component constituting the product, and the environmental load amount information 314 related to the manufacture or purchase of each component constituting the product. Further, the memory 310 includes any one or more of the cost target information 315 that is the cost target received by the processing unit 320, the environmental target information 316 that is the environmental target, and the constraint condition information 317 that is the constraint condition.

[0021] The processing unit 320 includes a parameter reception unit 321 and an information provision unit 322. When the parameter reception unit 321 receives the input of any one or more of the cost target, the environmental target, and the constraint condition from the user of the design change support system 10, it stores the information in the cost target information 315, the environmental target information 316, and the constraint condition information 317, respectively. The information provision unit 322 provides the information included in the memory 310 in response to a request for information provision from the design change support device 100.

[0022] Note that the computer 300 is not limited to one unit, and there may be more. However, in the example of this embodiment, for simplicity of explanation, it is described as one computer.

[0023] Also, an example where the computer 300 that holds any one or more of the above-described design information, production plan, cost related to the manufacture or purchase of each component, and environmental load amount related to the manufacture or purchase of each component, and the computer 300 that receives input from the user are the same has been shown, but it is not limited to this, and the computer 300 with different enclosures may also be used.

[0024] The design change support device 100 includes a memory 110, a processing unit 120, an input information reception unit 130, and an external information acquisition unit 140. The memory 110 includes a product information storage area 111, a design change information storage area 112, an evaluation history storage area 113, an alert data storage area 114, and a design change proposal data storage area 115. The processing unit 120 includes a target achievement degree prediction calculation unit 121, a design change proposal unit 122, a learning optimization unit 124, an alert unit 125, a monitoring unit 126, and a cause analysis unit 128. The design change proposal unit 122 includes a change impact calculation unit 123. The monitoring unit 126 includes a purchase risk extraction unit 127. The design change support device 100 is a device having one or more processors.

[0025] Also, the design change support device 100 has a functional unit (not shown). Specifically, the design change support device 100 has a communication unit that performs information communication with an external device. The communication unit is communicably connected to an external device such as a computer 300 via a network 50.

[0026] The target achievement degree prediction calculation unit 121 calculates a predicted value over the future including an evaluation period for an evaluation value related to cost or environment (for example, at least any one of greenhouse gas emissions, the number of years elapsed until the product is recovered from sales, the product's discard rate, recycling rate, and reuse rate). Here, greenhouse gases include gases with various greenhouse effects. Representative ones include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), but are not limited to these, and it is not necessary to include these necessarily, and any one of them may be sufficient, or it may be a conversion of the greenhouse effect to any gas.

[0027] The design change proposal department 122 presents a design change plan that improves at least one of the predicted values related to cost or environment and the extracted purchase risks according to a predetermined priority order. Also, when presenting the design change plan, the design change proposal department 122 reflects the factors analyzed by the factor analysis department 128. Further, the design change proposal department 122 uses any one or more of the predicted value calculated by the target achievement degree prediction calculation department 121, the purchase risks extracted by the purchase risk extraction department 127, the factors analyzed by the factor analysis department 128, and the achievement degree calculated by the learning optimization department 124, and presents them as the reasons for the priority order of the design change proposals.

[0028] The change impact calculation department 123 quantitatively calculates the impact of the design change plan. For example, the change impact calculation department 123 calculates the increase amount, increase ratio, etc. of the evaluation value related to cost or environment due to the design change, and the decrease amount, decrease ratio, etc. of the production volume.

[0029] The learning optimization department 124 reflects the prediction result of the future evaluation value related to cost or environment including the evaluation period in subsequent design changes. Specifically, the learning optimization department 124 varies the priority order for each design change plan according to the prediction result. Also, the learning optimization department 124 compares the future prediction value of the evaluation value related to cost or environment for the product to which the design change plan is applied, including the evaluation period, with the evaluation value calculated from the actual performance information, calculates the achievement degree of the expected effect by the design change, and reflects the design change plan with a high achievement degree in subsequent design changes.

[0030] The alert department 125 presents an alert when the purchase risk quantified by the purchase risk extraction department 127 exceeds a predetermined purchase risk tolerance value, or when the impact of the design change plan quantified by the change impact calculation department 123 exceeds a predetermined design change impact tolerance value. Also, in addition to these cases, the alert department 125 presents an alert when the evaluation value calculated by the target achievement degree prediction calculation department 121 exceeds a predetermined deviation tolerance value.

[0031] The monitoring unit 126 monitors at least any one of the manufacturing cost, environmental load amount, buried amount prediction information, circulation information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction information, and news information received by the input information receiving unit 130 and the external information acquisition unit 140, and when the evaluation timing received by the input information receiving unit 130 arrives, or when the result of the monitoring exceeds the monitoring deviation tolerance value, it instructs the target achievement degree prediction calculation unit 121 to calculate an evaluation value related to cost or the environment.

[0032] The purchase risk extraction unit 127 extracts the purchase risk by using at least any one of the information on the materials constituting the product (circulation information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction information, buried amount prediction information) and news information. Further, the purchase risk extraction unit 127 quantifies the extracted purchase risk.

[0033] When the predicted value of the evaluation value related to cost or the environment over the future including the evaluation period exceeds the prediction value deviation tolerance value received by the input information receiving unit 130, the factor analysis unit 128 analyzes the deviated factors and includes a measure to eliminate the factors in the design change plan presented by the design change proposal unit 122.

[0034] The input information receiving unit 130 receives at least any one of the design information, manufacturing cost, production plan during the predetermined evaluation period, and environmental load amount related to manufacturing for the product to be produced during the predetermined evaluation period, the target value for the predetermined evaluation values related to cost and the environment, and the constraint conditions. Further, the input information receiving unit 130 receives, as information on the organization that produces the product, at least any one of the production result information and sales result information for the product during the predetermined evaluation period, at least any one of the monitoring evaluation timing and the monitoring deviation tolerance value, and the prediction value deviation tolerance value. Further, the input information receiving unit 130 receives the purchase risk tolerance value, the design change impact tolerance value, and the prediction value deviation tolerance value.

[0035] In addition, the input information reception unit 130 receives, as information on the organization that produces the product, at least one of the production achievement information or sales achievement information of the product during a predetermined period, and at least one of the post - use recovery rate information of the sold product, the disposal rate, recycling rate, and reuse rate of the sold product, and the achievement information on the number of years elapsed until the product is recovered from sales.

[0036] The external information acquisition unit 140 acquires at least one of the buried amount prediction information of the material used as the raw material of the product, the circulation information of the material, the price fluctuation history of the material, the price fluctuation prediction information of the material, and news information. In addition, the external information acquisition unit 140 separately acquires or acquires in advance the emission unit information.

[0037] [Explanation of the process] Fig. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a flowchart of the design change proposal process when the evaluation value of the entire enterprise is set as the target value. Here, the "enterprise" is not limited to an enterprise in the strict sense such as the establishment - based law, but includes all kinds of organizations that carry out production or manufacturing.

[0038] The design change proposal process S100 is started when the design change support device 100 receives a start instruction from the user. Alternatively, the design change proposal process S100 may be started at a predetermined date and time (for example, 6:00 am every day) or at a predetermined interval (for example, every 12 hours).

[0039] First, the input information reception unit 130 requests information from the computer 300 and receives, via the network 50, at least one of the design information, manufacturing cost, production plan during the predetermined evaluation period, environmental load amount related to manufacturing, target value for a predetermined evaluation value related to cost and environment, and constraint conditions for the product produced during the predetermined evaluation period. The external information acquisition unit 140 acquires, via the network 50, at least one of the public information of the buried amount prediction information of the material used as the raw material of the product, the circulation information of the material, the price fluctuation history of the material, the price fluctuation prediction information of the material, and news information. In addition, the external information acquisition unit 140 separately acquires the emission unit information.

[0040] Here, the manufacturing cost includes, for example, the costs related to the manufacturing and assembly of each component constituting the product, the cost of purchasing each component, etc. The costs related to the manufacturing and assembly of each component constituting the product also include, for example, labor costs, transportation costs, etc. The amount of environmental load related to the manufacturing of the product includes, for example, the greenhouse gas emissions related to the purchase and manufacturing of each component constituting the product, the amount of waste during product manufacturing, the power consumption during processing and assembly, etc.

[0041] The evaluation value related to cost is, for example, a predetermined index value such as the manufacturing cost of the product, the total value of the manufacturing costs of the product for each company or site, etc.

[0042] The evaluation value related to the environment is, for example, a predetermined index value such as greenhouse gas emissions, the number of years elapsed until the product is recovered after being sold, the product disposal rate, the recycling rate, the reuse rate, etc.

[0043] The emission per unit refers to the greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic activity volume, for example, the greenhouse gas emissions per ton of raw material purchased.

[0044] The input information reception unit 130 stores the received design information of the product to be produced during the current period, the manufacturing cost, the amount of environmental load related to the manufacturing of the product, and the production plan for the current period in the product information storage area 111 (step S102).

[0045] Then, the target achievement degree prediction calculation unit 121 calculates the predicted values of the evaluation value related to cost or environment received in step S101 for the current period and the future, and diagnoses whether the target value can be achieved (step S103). In calculating the predicted values of the evaluation value related to cost or environment for the current period and the future, the target achievement degree prediction calculation unit 121 uses any one or more of the design information of the products produced by the enterprise during the predetermined evaluation period, the manufacturing cost, the production plan for the current period, the amount of environmental load related to the manufacturing of the product, the information of the raw materials (circulation information, price change history, price change prediction, reserve amount prediction), the news information, and the emission per unit.

[0046] Here, the manufacturing cost may be the result calculated by the computer 300 when manufactured by the enterprise, or the result calculated by an external system connectable to the computer 300 may be obtained via the computer 300.

[0047] Also, the amount of environmental load related to the manufacturing of the product may be the result calculated by the computer 300 when manufactured by the enterprise, or the result calculated by an external system connectable to the computer 300 may be obtained via the computer 300.

[0048] In the case of expected goal achievement, the expected goal achievement degree calculation unit 121 proceeds to step S106, the control of which will be described later. In the case of not expected goal achievement, the expected goal achievement degree calculation unit 121 proceeds to step S115, the control of which will be described later (step S104).

[0049] In the case of not expected goal achievement (in the case of "No" in step S104), the learning optimization unit 124 updates the priority 601d of the design change plan in the design change proposal data storage area 115 (step S115). By the learning optimization unit 124 updating the priority 601d of the design change proposal data storage area 115, learning is performed so that the proposal priority of the design change that did not achieve the goal is lowered in the next design change plan proposal.

[0050] Then, the design change proposal unit 122 selects a product with a low degree of goal achievement as the product for which design change is to be made, and extracts a design change plan that is effective for the product and satisfies the set constraint conditions if set in step S101 (step S105). Then, the design change proposal unit 122 returns the control to step S103.

[0051] When the target achievement is expected (i.e., "Yes" in step S104), the purchase risk extraction unit 127 extracts and quantifies the purchase risk using one or more of the material information (circulation information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction, reserve prediction) and the news information (step S106). Note that the purchase risk is typically, for example, the degree of price increase or the decrease in the available quantity. In the case of a price increase, the percentage of price increase is an example of the quantified information. In the case of a decrease in the available quantity, the shortage quantity of the production volume expected in the production plan is an example of the quantified information.

[0052] The alert unit 125 determines whether there is a problem with the purchase risk (step S107). If there is no problem (i.e., "No" in step S107), the alert unit 125 proceeds to step S110, the control of which will be described later. Note that in the process of determining whether there is a problem with the purchase risk, the alert unit 125 determines the presence or absence of a problem using a predetermined threshold value for the quantified purchase risk.

[0053] If there is a problem with the extracted purchase risk (i.e., "Yes" in step S107), the alert unit 125 displays an alert for the problem part (step S108) and asks the user whether to implement the design change proposal again and obtains an answer (step S109). If the obtained answer is not to implement the design change proposal (i.e., "No" in step S109), the alert unit 125 proceeds to step S110, the control of which will be described later.

[0054] If the obtained answer is to implement the design change proposal (i.e., "Yes" in step S109), the learning optimization unit 124 updates the priority 601d of the design change plan in the design change proposal data storage area 115 (step S116). By the learning optimization unit 124 updating the priority 601d in the design change proposal data storage area 115, it learns to lower the proposal priority of the design change that did not achieve the target in the next design change plan proposal. Then, the learning optimization unit 124 returns the control to step S105.

[0055] Then, the change impact calculation unit 123 calculates the impact of the design change (step S110). Calculating the impact of a design change includes, for example, when an alternative material is proposed by the design change proposal unit 122, calculating how different the price, buried amount, strength, workability such as ductility, heat resistance, recyclability, etc. of the alternative material are compared with the original material. Also, when there is a possibility that the strength of the product will decrease due to the use of the alternative material, it also includes calculating the immediate and future impacts on the durability and product life of the product caused by the decrease.

[0056] At this time, in the design change proposal, the design change proposal unit 122 uses the constraint conditions input in step S101 and proposes a design change plan within the range that satisfies the constraint conditions. The constraint conditions may be constraints regarding one or more numerical values of cost or environmental evaluation value, or may be related to product quality such as product weight, durability, recyclability, etc., or content related to the circularity of the product.

[0057] The alert unit 125 determines whether there is a problem with the impact of the design change (step S111). If there is no problem (in the case of "No" in step S111), the alert unit 125 proceeds to step S114, the control of which will be described later. Note that in the process of determining whether there is a problem with the impact of the design change, the alert unit 125 determines the presence or absence of a problem using a predetermined threshold value for the calculation result.

[0058] If there is a problem with the impact of the design change (in the case of "Yes" in step S111), the alert unit 125 displays an alert for the problem part (step S112) and asks the user whether to perform another design change proposal and obtains an answer (step S113). If the obtained answer is not to perform the design change proposal (in the case of "No" in step S113), the alert unit 125 proceeds to step S114, the control of which will be described later.

[0059] If the obtained answer is to perform the design change proposal (in the case of "Yes" in step S113), the alert unit 125 proceeds with the control to step S116.

[0060] Then, the determined design is saved in the design change information storage area 112, and the evaluation value of the determined design is saved in the evaluation history storage area 113 (step S114).

[0061] The above is an example of the processing flow of the design change proposal process S100. According to the design change proposal process S100, it is possible to provide a user with a future prediction of an evaluation value related to cost or environment considering external factors such as resource reserves and price fluctuations, and a design change plan that has received the future prediction. This flow shows the case where the cost or environment target input by the user in step S101 is set as the target value at the enterprise level. The target value at the enterprise level refers to the target value for the evaluation value at the enterprise level using the design information of all products in the period and taking the total value thereof. Therefore, in step S105, a product with a low probability of achieving the target is selected as the product for which design changes are to be made.

[0062] Also, in this flow, the design information of all products in the period is used and the total value is used as the enterprise-level evaluation, but it is also possible to perform similar processing at a base unit level or a product unit level that is smaller than the enterprise. For example, in the case of the base unit level, instead of the design information of all products of the enterprise, the design information of all products of the corresponding base is targeted. In the case of the product unit level, instead of the data of all products of the enterprise, the data of the corresponding product is targeted. Each product data is received by the input information receiving unit 130 in step S101 and saved in the product information storage area 111 in step S102.

[0063] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a flowchart of a design change proposal process when the evaluation value of a product is set as the target value. The design change proposal process (product unit) S100' in FIG. 3 differs from the design change proposal process S100 shown in FIG. 2 in terms of whether the evaluation unit is the product unit or the enterprise unit. Therefore, the overall flow is the same, but there are some differences in part. The differences will be mainly described below.

[0064] First, the input information reception unit 130 requests information from the computer 300 and receives, via the network 50, at least any one of target product information (including any one of design information, manufacturing cost, production plan during the evaluation period, and environmental load amount related to the production of the product), a target value of an evaluation value related to cost or environment, and constraint conditions. The external information acquisition unit 140 acquires, via the network 50, at least any one of public information such as predicted buried amount information of materials used as raw materials for the product, recycling information of materials, price fluctuation history of materials, predicted price fluctuation information of materials, and news information (step S101´). In addition, the external information acquisition unit 140 separately acquires emission unit information.

[0065] Then, the input information reception unit 130 stores the design information of the target product, the manufacturing cost, the environmental load amount related to the production of the product, and the production plan for the current period in the product information storage area 111 (step S102´).

[0066] Then, the design change proposal unit 122 extracts a design change plan that is effective for the target product and satisfies the set constraint conditions if set in step S101 (step S105´).

[0067] The above are the differences regarding an example of the flowchart of the design change proposal process when the evaluation value of the product is set as the target value. According to the example of the flowchart of the design change proposal process S100´ when the evaluation value of the product is set as the target value, it is possible to provide, for each product, a future prediction of an evaluation value related to cost or environment considering external factors such as resource buried amount and price fluctuation, and a design change plan based on the future prediction to the user.

[0068] Figure 4 is a diagram showing an example of the flowchart of the monitoring process. The monitoring process S200 is started when the design change support device 100 receives a start instruction from the user. Alternatively, the monitoring process S200 may be started at a predetermined date and time (for example, 6:00 am every day) or at a predetermined interval (for example, every 12 hours).

[0069] First, the input information receiving unit 130 receives any one of the production performance information of the product and the sales performance information during a predetermined evaluation period, the monitoring evaluation timing, the monitoring deviation tolerance value, and the predicted value deviation tolerance value. The external information acquisition unit 140 receives one or more of the information on materials (circulation information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction, reserve prediction) and news information. The monitoring unit 126 starts monitoring each received information (step S201).

[0070] Then, the monitoring unit 126 determines whether either the monitoring evaluation timing received in step S201 arrives or any of the information on the monitored materials (circulation information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction, reserve prediction) and news information exceeds the monitoring deviation tolerance value (step S202). If neither case occurs (in the case of "No" in step S202), the monitoring unit 126 ends the monitoring process.

[0071] When the monitoring evaluation timing arrives or the monitoring deviation tolerance value is exceeded (in the case of "Yes" in step S202), the target achievement degree prediction calculation unit 121 calculates the actual performance of the evaluation value related to cost or environment using the information on materials (circulation information, price fluctuation history, price fluctuation prediction, reserve prediction) and news information, and stores it in the evaluation history storage area 113 (step S203).

[0072] Then, the monitoring unit 126 compares the predicted value of the evaluation value related to cost or environment calculated in step S103 of the design change proposal process over the current period and the future with the actual performance of the evaluation value related to cost or environment calculated in step S203 of the monitoring process (step S204).

[0073] The monitoring unit 126 identifies the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value compared in step S204, and determines whether it is equal to or greater than the predicted value deviation tolerance (step S205). If it is not equal to or greater than the predicted value deviation tolerance (in the case of "No" in step S205), that is, if the prediction and the actual result are close, the monitoring unit 126 ends the monitoring process.

[0074] When it is equal to or greater than the predicted value deviation tolerance (in the case of "Yes" in step S205), that is, when the prediction and the actual result are far apart, the cause analysis unit 128 analyzes the cause of the deviation (step S206). Specifically, the cause analysis unit 128 identifies which of the most deviated elements is the production performance information of the product, the sales performance information, the material information (circulation information, price change history, price change prediction, reserve prediction), the news information, etc.

[0075] The cause analysis unit 128 determines whether the cause of the deviation is due to a change in the production volume (step S207). If the cause of the deviation is a change in the production volume (in the case of "Yes" in step S207), the cause analysis unit 128 ends the monitoring process.

[0076] If the cause of the deviation is not a change in the production volume (in the case of "No" in step S207), the cause analysis unit 128 determines whether the impact on purchase or production is small (step S208). Specifically, if the cause of the deviation is a change in the selling price of the purchase destination, a change in the purchase destination, or a change in the trading company situation that caused these, a change in the social situation information, a change in the material price, a change in the reserve, etc., the cause analysis unit 128 causes the purchase risk extraction unit 127 to determine the degree to which the cause of the deviation affects subsequent purchases and production. If there is no impact on purchase or production or the impact is smaller than a predetermined level (in the case of "Yes" in step S208), the cause analysis unit 128 ends the monitoring process.

[0077] If there is an impact on purchase or production (in the case of "No" in step S208), the alert unit 125 causes an alert to be displayed to the user (step S209), and also asks the user whether to perform another design change proposal and obtains an answer (step S210). At this time, the alert displayed by the alert unit 125 refers to the alert data storage area 114, and specifies an alert message according to the classification and alert content. If the obtained answer is not to implement the design change proposal (in the case of "No" in step S210), the alert unit 125 ends the monitoring process.

[0078] If the obtained answer is to implement the design change proposal (in the case of "Yes" in step S210), the alert unit 125 advances the control to step S211.

[0079] The learning optimization unit 124 lowers the priority of the design change plan including the cause of the deviation, and causes the design change proposal process S100 to start from step S105 (step S211). Specifically, the learning optimization unit 124 updates the priority 601d of the learning optimization unit 124 and the design change proposal data storage area 115 so as to lower the priority 601d of the design change plan including the cause of the deviation, and causes the design change proposal process S100 to start from step S105. By the learning optimization unit 124 updating the priority 601d of the design change proposal data storage area 115 reflecting the cause of the deviation, it is possible to learn to lower the proposal priority of the design change including the cause of the deviation in the next design change plan proposal.

[0080] The above is an example of the flowchart of the monitoring process. According to the monitoring process S200, when the deviation between the future prediction and the actual result of the evaluation value related to cost or environment considering external factors such as resource reserves and price fluctuations becomes large, it is possible to provide the user with a design change plan based on the future prediction.

[0081] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a flowchart of learning optimization processing. The learning optimization processing S300 is started when the design change support device 100 receives a start instruction from the user. Alternatively, the learning optimization processing S300 may be started at a predetermined date and time (for example, 6:00 am every day) or at a predetermined interval (for example, every 12 hours).

[0082] First, the input information reception unit 130 receives performance information of any one or a combination of the production performance information of the company's products during the current period, the sales performance information, information about the use of the sold products (recovery rate information, discard rate of the sold products, recycling rate, reuse rate), and the number of years elapsed until recovery from sales (step S301).

[0083] Then, the learning optimization unit 124 calculates how much the effect of the design change actually is with respect to the predicted effect (step S302). Specifically, the learning optimization unit 124 compares the predicted values of the evaluation values related to the cost or environment of the product stored in the evaluation history storage area 113 over the current period and in the future with the performance information received by the input information reception unit 130 in step S301. Then, by matching the comparison result with the design change information stored in the design change information storage area 112, the content of the design change is associated with the comparison result of the predicted value and the actual value, and the effect of the design change is calculated.

[0084] Then, the learning optimization unit 124 uses the calculation result of the effect of the design change to update the priority 601d of the design change policy in the design change proposal data storage area 115 and reflects it in the subsequent design change proposal content (step S303).

[0085] The above is an example of the processing flow of the learning optimization processing S300. According to the learning optimization processing S300, sustainable product design considering future predictions becomes possible.

[0086] [Description of Hardware Configuration]FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the design change support device. The design change support device 100 can be realized by a general computer 900 including a processor (e.g., CPU: Central Processing Unit, or GPU: Graphics Processing Unit) 901, a hardware memory 902 such as RAM (Random Access Memory), a storage 903 such as a hard disk drive (HDD) or a solid state drive (SSD), a reading device 905 that reads information from a portable storage medium 904 such as a CD (Compact Disk) or a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk), an input device 906 such as a keyboard, a mouse, a barcode reader, or a touch panel, an output device 907 such as a display, and a communication device 908 that communicates with other computers via a communication network such as a LAN or the Internet, or a network system including a plurality of such computers 900. Note that the reading device 905 may be capable of not only reading but also writing to the portable storage medium 904.

[0087] The processor 901 executes various processes by executing various predetermined programs loaded from the storage 903 into the memory 902. The program is, for example, an application program executable on an OS (Operating System) program. The program may be installed from the portable storage medium 904 via the reading device 905 into the storage 903, or may be downloaded from a network via the communication device 908 and executed by the processor 901.

[0088] For example, the processing unit 120, the target achievement degree prediction calculation unit 121, the design change proposal unit 122, the change impact calculation unit 123, the learning optimization unit 124, the alert unit 125, the monitoring unit 126, the purchase risk extraction unit 127, and the cause analysis unit 128 can be realized by loading the program stored in the storage 903 into the memory 902 and executing it with the processor 901. The input information reception unit 130 and the external information acquisition unit 140 can be realized by the processor 901 using the input device 906, the output device 907, and the communication device 908. The memory 110 can be realized by the processor 901 using the memory 902 or the storage 903.

[0089] [Data Explanation] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of the product information storage area. The product information storage area 111 stores the product information of the enterprise. Specifically, it has a product ID 401a, a component ID 401b, a design ID 401c, an evaluation period ID 401d, and a production plan ID 401e. The product ID 401a, the component ID 401b, the design ID 401c, the evaluation period ID 401d, and the production plan ID 401e are respectively associated.

[0090] The product ID 401a stores information linked to information such as the product name, price, and product drawings combining each component of the product. The component ID 401b stores information linked to information such as the part name, price, purchase source, and environmental load amount related to the manufacture or purchase of the parts that make up the product. In particular, when the component ID 401b purchases parts from outside the enterprise, it stores the purchase source information, and when manufacturing in the enterprise or related enterprises, it stores information such as the purchase source of the materials required for part manufacturing.

[0091] The design ID 401c stores information linked to information such as the design drawings of the parts that make up the product. The evaluation period ID 401d stores information linked to the information of the set predetermined evaluation period. The production plan ID 401e stores information linked to the production plan information in the set predetermined evaluation period.

[0092] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of the design change information storage area. The design change information storage area 112 stores history information of product design changes. Specifically, it has a product ID 401a, a component part ID 401b, an evaluation period ID 401d, and a change ID 401f. The product ID 401a, the component part ID 401b, the evaluation period ID 401d, and the change ID 401f are respectively associated with each other.

[0093] The change ID 401f stores information associated with the part drawing after the design change, other information that has changed due to the design change, for example, information such as the supplier and price.

[0094] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of the evaluation history storage area. The evaluation history storage area 113 stores the results of evaluating the environmental information of the product and the parts constituting the product. Specifically, it has a product ID 401a, a component part ID 401b, a target value ID 401g, an evaluation period ID 401d, and an evaluation ID 401h. The product ID 401a, the component part ID 401b, the target value ID 401g, the evaluation period ID 401d, and the evaluation ID 401h are respectively associated with each other.

[0095] The target value ID 401g stores information associated with the target value or constraint condition information set in a predetermined evaluation period. Here, the target value ID 401g includes either or both of the target value and the constraint condition, in the case of single or multiple. Also, there may be a case where only the target value is included and no constraint condition is included. The evaluation ID 401h stores information associated with the evaluation result in the evaluation period.

[0096] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of the alert data storage area 114. The alert data storage area 114 has an alert number 501a, a classification 501b, alert content 501c, and an implementation proposal 501d. The alert number 501a, the classification 501b, the alert content 501c, and the implementation proposal 501d are respectively associated. The alert shown in the alert content 501c is classified in the related field of a predetermined alert (such as purchase availability, recyclability, greenhouse gas, etc.) in the classification 501b. In addition, design change proposal cases for each alert content are accumulated in the implementation proposal 501d (the content of the design change is expanded).

[0097] Note that FIG. 10 only shows an example of a part of the alert data, and there are also multiple other alerts.

[0098] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of the design change proposal data storage area 115. In the design change proposal data storage area 115, a design change plan and the priority for presenting the design change plan are stored in association. Specifically, the design change proposal data storage area 115 has a target 601a, a countermeasure policy 601b, a design change plan 601c, an evaluation ID 401h, and a priority 601d. The target 601a, the countermeasure policy 601b, the design change plan 601c, the evaluation ID 401h, and the priority 601d are respectively associated.

[0099] The target 601a stores information for specifying the field of the environmental target. For example, the target 601a includes index values such as "recycled material usage rate", "depleted resource usage rate", and "greenhouse gas emissions". The countermeasure policy 601b stores the countermeasure policy regarding the target field of the target 601a. There are one or more countermeasure policies 601b for the target field of the target 601a. For example, for the target of the recycled material usage rate, countermeasure policies such as "reducing the purchase amount of virgin materials" and "increasing the purchase amount of recycled materials" are considered and set as countermeasure policies respectively.

[0100] The design change plan 601c stores specific design change plans that conform to the countermeasure guidelines in the goals. There is one or more design change plans 601c for the countermeasure guidelines of the countermeasure guidelines 601b. For example, for the countermeasure guideline of "reducing the purchase quantity of virgin materials" in the goal of the recycled material usage rate, the design change plans of "change to recycled materials and proposal for shape change associated with the change" and the design change plan of "weight reduction" can be considered, and each is set as a design change plan.

[0101] The design change plan 601c is appropriately added for each actual result of the design change. Also, as shown in FIG. 11, even for the change proposals of the same alternative material, the changes to material A and the changes to material B are treated independently. The evaluation ID 401h is information associated with the evaluation result shown in FIG. 9. As shown in FIG. 11, when there is an evaluation result for each design change plan, it is recorded as an evaluation ID. The priority 601d stores information for ranking which of the design change plans within the same goal should be proposed preferentially. At this time, the priority 601d is appropriately changed in design change proposal processing, monitoring processing, etc., and is utilized when a design change is proposed by the design change proposal unit 122. Since the evaluation result at the time of past design changes is associated with the evaluation ID 401h, the user can refer to the reason for the priority 601d of the design change proposed by the design change proposal unit 122 as additional information for the design change proposal.

[0102] The above is an example of the design change support system according to the embodiment of the present invention. According to the above embodiment, it becomes possible to provide the user with the future prediction of the evaluation value related to cost or environment considering external factors such as resource reserves and price fluctuations, and the design change plan that has received the future prediction.

[0103] Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments and includes various modifications. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail for easy understanding of the present invention, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the configurations described. It is possible to replace a part of the configuration of the embodiment with another configuration, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of the embodiment. Further, it is possible to delete a part of the configuration of the embodiment.

[0104] For example, in the above embodiment, the design change support device 100 exemplifies material change, shape change, weight reduction, component standardization, etc. as design change contents, but is not limited thereto. For example, it may include a change in the procurement source of the material, a change in the assembly factory, or a change in the production volume or production time.

[0105] Each of the above-described parts, configurations, functions, processing units, etc. may be realized in hardware by designing a part or all of them, for example, by an integrated circuit. Further, each of the above-described parts, configurations, functions, etc. may be realized in software by a processor interpreting and executing a program for realizing each function. Information such as a program, table, file, etc. for realizing each function can be placed in a memory, a recording device such as a hard disk, or a recording medium such as an IC card, SD card, DVD.

[0106] Note that the control lines and information lines according to the above-described embodiments show those considered necessary for explanation, and do not necessarily show all the control lines and information lines on the product. In fact, it may be considered that almost all the configurations are interconnected. The present invention has been described mainly with reference to the embodiments.

Explanation of Reference Numerals

[0107] 10: Design change support system, 50: Network, 100: Design change support device, 110: Memory, 111: Product information storage area, 112: Design change information storage area, 113: Evaluation history storage area, 114: Alert data storage area, 115: Design change proposal data storage area, 120: Processing unit, 121: Target achievement degree prediction calculation unit, 122: Design change proposal unit, 123: Change impact calculation unit, 124: Learning optimization unit, 125: Alert unit, 126: Monitoring unit, 127: Purchase risk extraction unit, 128: Cause analysis unit, 130: Input information reception unit, 140: External information acquisition unit, 300: Computer, 310: Memory, 311: Design information, 312: Production plan information, 313: Cost information, 314: Environmental load amount information, 315: Cost target information, 316: Environmental target information, 317: Constraint condition information, 320: Processing unit, 321: Parameter reception unit, 322: Information providing unit.

Claims

1. an input information receiving unit that receives at least one of design information for a product to be produced during a predetermined evaluation period, a manufacturing cost, an environmental load amount related to a production plan and manufacturing during the evaluation period, a target value for a predetermined evaluation value related to cost or the environment, and a constraint condition; an external information acquisition unit that acquires at least one of reserve forecast information for a material that is a raw material for the product, cyclicality information for the material, price fluctuation history for the material, price fluctuation forecast information for the material, and news information; a target achievement prediction calculation unit that calculates a future prediction value including the evaluation period for the evaluation value related to cost or environment; a purchasing risk extraction unit that extracts a purchasing risk of the material using at least one of the reserves prediction information, the circularity information, the price fluctuation history, the price fluctuation prediction information, and the news information; a design change proposal unit that proposes a design change plan for improving at least one of the predicted value and the extracted purchasing risk; A design change support device comprising:

2. 2. The design change support device according to claim 1, the input information receiving unit receives either production performance information or sales performance information for the product during the evaluation period of an organization that produces the product, either a monitoring evaluation timing or a monitoring deviation allowable value, and a predicted value deviation allowable value; a monitoring unit that monitors at least one of the manufacturing cost, the environmental load, the reserves forecast information, the circularity information, the price fluctuation history, the price fluctuation forecast information, and the news information, and when the monitoring evaluation timing arrives or the monitoring result exceeds the monitoring deviation allowable value, issues an instruction to the target achievement forecast calculation unit to calculate the forecast value of the evaluation value; a factor analysis unit that analyzes a factor of the deviation when the predicted value of the evaluation value exceeds the predicted value deviation allowable value, the design change proposal unit presents the design change plan while taking into consideration the factors analyzed by the factor analysis unit; A design change support device comprising:

3. 2. The design change support device according to claim 1, a design change proposal data storage area in which the design change plans and priorities for presenting the design change plans are stored in association with each other; a learning optimization unit that reflects the predicted value of the evaluation value in a subsequent design change plan; Equipped with the learning optimization unit updates the priority order of the design change plan in the design change proposal data storage area according to the predicted value; the design change proposing unit presents the design change plan in accordance with the priority order; A design change support device comprising:

4. 2. The design change support device according to claim 1, The input information receiving unit receives a purchasing risk tolerance value and a design change impact tolerance value, A change impact estimation unit that quantitatively calculates an impact of the design change plan; an alert unit that presents an alert when the purchasing risk extracted by the purchasing risk extraction unit exceeds the purchasing risk tolerance value or when an impact of the design change plan exceeds the design change impact tolerance value, the design change proposing unit presents the design change plan when the alert is presented; A design change support device comprising:

5. 3. The design change support device according to claim 2, The input information receiving unit receives a purchasing risk tolerance value and a design change impact tolerance value, A change impact estimation unit that quantitatively calculates an impact of the design change plan; an alert unit that presents an alert when the purchasing risk extracted by the purchasing risk extraction unit exceeds the purchasing risk tolerance, when the impact of the design change plan exceeds the design change impact tolerance, or when the predicted value of the evaluation value is calculated by the instruction of the monitoring unit and exceeds the predicted value deviation tolerance, the design change proposing unit presents the design change plan when the alert is presented; A design change support device comprising:

6. 2. The design change support device according to claim 1, the input information receiving unit receives performance information including at least one of production performance information or sales performance information for the product during the evaluation period of an organization that produces the product, post-use recovery rate information for the sold product, at least one of a disposal rate, a recycling rate, and a reuse rate for the sold product, and the number of years elapsed from sale to recovery of the product; a learning optimization unit that reflects the predicted value of the evaluation value in a subsequent design change plan; The learning optimization unit includes: calculating a degree of achievement of the effect expected from the design change by comparing the predicted value of the evaluation value related to the cost or environment of the product to which the design change plan has been applied with the evaluation value calculated from the performance information, and reflecting the design change plan with a high degree of achievement in subsequent design changes; A design change support device comprising:

7. 2. The design change support device according to claim 1, the design change proposing unit presents the design change plan and indicates a reason for presenting the design change plan using the predicted value of the evaluation value. A design change support device comprising:

8. 3. The design change support device according to claim 2, the design change proposing unit presents the design change plan and indicates a reason for presenting the design change plan by using the predicted value of the evaluation value or the cause of the deviation. A design change support device comprising:

9. 7. The design change support device according to claim 6, the design change proposing unit presents the design change plan and indicates a reason for presenting the design change plan using the predicted value or the achievement degree of the evaluation value. A design change support device comprising:

10. 2. The design change support device according to claim 1, The environmental evaluation value among the evaluation values ​​is at least one of the number of years elapsed from the sale of the product to its collection, the disposal rate of the product, the recycling rate of the product, and the reuse rate of the product. A design change support device comprising:

11. A design change support method using an information processing device, comprising: The information processing device includes: an input information receiving step of receiving at least one of design information for a product to be produced during an evaluation period, a manufacturing cost, an environmental load amount related to a production plan and manufacturing during the evaluation period, a target value for a predetermined evaluation value related to cost or the environment, and a constraint condition; an external information acquisition step of acquiring at least one of reserve forecast information for a material that is a raw material for the product, cyclicality information for the material, price fluctuation history for the material, price fluctuation forecast information for the material, and news information; a target achievement prediction calculation step of calculating a future predicted value including the evaluation period for the evaluation value related to cost or environment; a purchasing risk extraction step of extracting a purchasing risk of the material using at least one of the reserve prediction information, the circularity information, the price fluctuation history, the price fluctuation prediction information, and the news information; a design change proposal step of presenting a design change plan for improving at least one of the predicted value and the extracted purchasing risk; A design change support method comprising the steps of:

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