Power generation plan making system, and power generation plan making method

Abstract

To obtain a power generation plan in consideration of change in a plant state and change in an operation method for an operator by reflecting operation results under various situations to calculation.SOLUTION: The present invention is directed to a power generation plan making system characterized by having a power generation plan making and calculating unit for making a power generation plan of a power generation plant by using pre-input condition and model, an operation result comparing unit for comparing an operation result obtained when the power generation plant is operated based on the power generation plan made by the power generation plan making unit with the power generation plan, a deviation factor classification model analysis unit for analyzing a deviation factor causing deviation obtained by comparison by the operation result comparing unit to obtain a schedule pattern which can cancel the deviation factor, and an output unit for presenting at least the power generation plan made by the power generation plan making and calculating unit and the schedule pattern obtained by the deviation factor classification model analysis unit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a power generation planning system and a power generation planning method. [Background technology]

[0002] In conventional power plants, operators operate the plant by starting and stopping equipment based on data output from a power generation planning system.

[0003] A power generation planning system is a device and method used to develop a power generation plan that determines the start-up timing of generators and related equipment in a plant, and various inventions have been made to date with the aim of improving the accuracy of such plans. For example, Patent Document 1 provides an acquisition unit for acquiring physical quantities such as equipment temperature, and predicts the time when the start-up conditions of each piece of equipment will be met based on the acquired data, thereby calculating the scheduled start-up and shutdown times of the power generation plant. Furthermore, Patent Document 2 proposes a method for predicting the transition of fuel inventory at a fuel base located at a plant and, based on the results, formulating a power generation plan so as not to violate the lower limit of fuel inventory. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2016-156306 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2018-063546 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] At power plants, operators carry out operations based on the results output by the power generation planning system. However, due to changes in the plant's internal environmental values ​​(equipment life), changes in the plant's state due to external environmental values ​​(outside temperature, weather), and changes in the plant's specific operating methods, operators may be performing operations that ignore the planning results, and in reality, there is a discrepancy between the planning results and actual operating results.

[0006] In addition, with the coming electricity reforms, power generation planning methods will be required to be able to output planning results that are highly accurate and correspond to the electricity demand situation and plant status even under such circumstances.

[0007] However, methods of formulating power generation plans based on predictions such as those described in Patent Documents 1 and 2 involve the possibility of deviations from actual operations, and therefore can only satisfy the requirements of the operations side locally. In addition to not being able to formulate flexible power generation plans that suit the situation, there are also issues such as not being able to execute operations in accordance with the planned results. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] In view of the above, the present invention provides a power generation plan formulation system comprising: a power generation plan formulation calculation unit that formulates a power generation plan for a power plant using pre-entered conditions and a model; an operation record comparison unit that compares the power generation plan with operation records when the power generation plant is operated based on the power generation plan formulated by the power generation plan formulation unit; a deviation factor classification model analysis unit that analyzes deviation factors that cause deviations through the comparison by the operation record comparison unit and obtains a schedule pattern that can eliminate the deviation factors; and an output unit that presents at least the power generation plan formulated by the power generation plan formulation calculation unit and the schedule pattern obtained by the deviation factor classification model analysis unit.

[0009] The present invention also provides a "power generation planning method realized by using a computer, wherein the computer formulates a power generation plan for a power plant using pre-entered conditions and a model, compares the operational results when the power plant is operated based on the formulated power generation plan with the power generation plan, analyzes factors causing the deviation through the comparison, obtains a schedule pattern that can eliminate the factors causing the deviation, and presents at least the formulated power generation plan and schedule pattern to an external device." [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] In the power generation plan formulation method of the present invention, by reflecting operational records under various conditions in the calculations, it is possible to output a power generation plan to the operators that takes into account changes in the plant state and changes in the operation method.

[0011] Furthermore, according to the embodiment of the present invention, by enriching the start-up and shutdown records associated with the operation of the power plant, the accuracy of the power generation plan formulation is continuously improved, which enables the operators to operate the equipment without causing any discrepancy with the output results, and as a result, the reliability of the amount of power output from the power plant in response to the local power demand requirements is improved. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0012] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of a power generation planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a processing procedure of the power generation planning system according to the embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 3] FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining the processing of the classification model deviation analysis processing unit 22. [Figure 4] 3 is a diagram for explaining the processing of a power generation plan formulation calculation processing unit 21 and a classification model deviation analysis processing unit 22. FIG. [Figure 5] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining a power generation plan formulation process according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0013] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. [Example]

[0014] 1 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of a power generation planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The power generation planning system 1 receives data from various parts of the power plant from sensors connected to power plant equipment 4 via a communication network 2 and an acquisition unit 3. In the example shown, the status of the power plant equipment is acquired in chronological order, including process variables and operation variables for fuel tanks, the main turbine generator, and auxiliary equipment such as pumps and valves.

[0015] The power generation planning system 1, which is realized using a computer, is composed of a CPU 15, an input unit 16 such as a keyboard or mouse, a display unit 17 such as a display device, a communication unit 18, and various databases (power generation planning calculation database DB1, in-plant equipment status value database DB2, operation record database DB3, deviation factor classification model analysis database DB4, and schedule pattern database DB5) as a memory unit, all connected via communication lines 19.

[0016] 1 stores various data acquired via the acquisition unit 3, communication network 2, and communication unit 18 in databases (a database DB2 of facility status values, a database DB3 of operational records, a database DB4 for analyzing deviation factors classification models, and a schedule pattern database DB5).The stored data is used to execute a program stored in a database DB1 for power generation plan formulation calculations (a program for power generation plan formulation calculations based on a basic plant model using various parameters (constants, curve data, formulation calculation logic) for power generation plan formulation determined at the time of plant construction), and the calculation results and calculation process are displayed on a display unit 17.

[0017] 2 is a diagram showing an example of the processing procedure of the power generation plan formulation system according to the embodiment of the present invention. First, the contents acquired via the input unit 16 and the communication unit 18 and stored in the storage unit DB will be described starting from the top of FIG.

[0018] The power generation plan formulation calculation database DB1 stores various parameters (constants, curve data, formulation calculation logic) for formulating a power generation plan that were determined at the time of plant construction, specifically various calculation required time data (constants, curve data) D11, operator request data (scheduled time, output, mode) D12, basic calculation logic D13, etc., which are input in advance by an operator via an input unit 16.

[0019] The operation record database DB3 stores the record D31 of the time required for starting and stopping equipment by operator operation for the past number of times, and the on-site equipment status value database DB2 stores the current on-site equipment status D21 (process data). The data up to this point (D11, D12, D13, D21, D31) is used by the power generation plan formulation calculation function 21, one of the processing functions in the calculation unit CPU, which will be described later.

[0020] The deviation factor classification model analysis database DB4 stores various data for analyzing the deviation factor classification model. The deviation factor classification model analysis database DB4 in Fig. 2 is a database portion DB4 that stores data used in the model analysis processing function 22, which is one of the processing functions in the calculation unit CPU described later.

[0021] Specifically, the database DB4 for analyzing the deviation factor classification model stores, for user plant operations carried out based on the results of the power generation plan formulation formulated by the power generation plan formulation calculation function 21, internal environmental values ​​(equipment and equipment life values ​​related to the power generation plan formulation) D41, external environmental values ​​(temperature outside the plant, weather information) D42, and information D43 on the start and stop times of the main and auxiliary machinery as the results of manual operations (direct operations rather than HMI screen operations) for each start and stop phase of the plant.

[0022] The operation record database DB3 stores, together with the formulated plan, the operation record of the user plant operation carried out based on the power generation plan formulation result formulated by the power generation plan formulation calculation function 21. The operation record database DB3 in Fig. 2 stores data used by the function 23 for comparing the formulation result and the operation record, which is one of the processing functions in the calculation unit CPU described later.

[0023] Specifically, the operation record database DB3 stores, as operation records during user plant operation, the current values ​​D21 (process data) of the on-site equipment status, the record D31 of the time required for starting and stopping the equipment by the operator, and also the planning schedule data D32 calculated by the power generation plan formulation calculation unit 21, which is one of the processing functions in the calculation unit CPU described later.

[0024] The schedule pattern database DB5 stores, as a schedule pattern D5, the results of the deviation factor analysis obtained by the deviation factor classification model analysis unit 22, one of the processing functions of the calculation unit CPU described later, which are used to identify factors and for calculations to formulate power generation plans from the next time onwards.

[0025] The processing contents according to the present invention are displayed as processing functions 21-24 in the calculation unit CPU in Fig. 2. Among these, the power generation plan formulation calculation unit 21 performs a power generation plan formulation calculation based on a basic plant model using constant and curve data of the power plant, operator requirements, and formulation calculation logic (D11, D12, D13) stored in a power generation plan formulation calculation database DB1, and stores the calculation results as formulation schedule data D32 in an operation record database DB3, and also displays them on the display unit 17. In this case, the power generation plan formulation calculation based on the basic plant model uses the current values ​​D21 (process data) of the facility equipment status and the record D31 of the equipment startup and shutdown times required by operator operations. The detailed processing contents of the power generation plan formulation calculation unit 21 will be described in detail below with reference to Fig. 4.

[0026] Separately from the power generation planning system 1 according to the present invention, in an actual plant, actual operation of the plant is carried out in accordance with the plan (planned schedule data D32) proposed by the power generation planning system 1 via the display unit 17, and various data obtained as a result are taken into and stored in the in-plant equipment status database DB2 and the operation record database DB3 as actual plant operation results. This data is stored in the operation record database DB3 in association with the plan as its operating record.

[0027] Next, the comparison unit 23 in the calculation unit CPU of FIG. 2 compares the planning result (current planning result) D32 of the power generation plan formulation calculation unit 21 with the operator operation record (the current value D21 of the status of the facility equipment and the record D31 of the time required to start and stop the equipment by the operator's operation), and the deviation detection unit 24 extracts the deviation items between the plan and the record after the operation.

[0028] Next, in the processing of the deviation factor classification model analysis processing unit 22, the formulation result (current formulation result) D32 of the power generation plan formulation calculation unit 21, the data (internal environment value D41, external environment value D42, operation record information D43) stored in the deviation factor classification model analysis database DB4, and the detection result (deviation item) of the deviation detection unit 24 are taken in. Then, for the deviation of the record data (deviation item) obtained by the deviation detection unit 24, the data (internal environment value D41, external environment value D42, operation record information D43) stored in the deviation factor classification model analysis database DB4 are used to analyze and identify the deviation factor, and a schedule pattern D5 is created for each deviation factor and registered in the schedule pattern database DB5.

[0029] Furthermore, the schedule pattern D5 that reflects the actual results stored in the schedule pattern database DB5 can be used in the process of formulating the next power generation plan D44.

[0030] The processing in Fig. 2 described above progresses and is executed in chronological order with the intervention of the operator as follows. First, requests from the operator (scheduled start / stop times, amount of power generation) are transferred from the input unit 16 to the power generation plan formulation calculation database DB1. In addition, power plant data (start / stop times, current in-plant status values, data related to operation modes, operator operation records) obtained using the acquisition unit 18 is transferred to databases DB2, DB3, and DB4. With the input processing up to this point, the following power generation plan formulation processing can begin.

[0031] Then, data is transferred from the power generation plan formulation calculation database DB1 to the power generation plan formulation calculation unit 21 in the calculation unit CPU, and a power generation plan formulation calculation is performed. In the power generation plan formulation calculation, previously registered schedule patterns D5 stored in the schedule pattern database DB5 are used as a classification model analysis to search for cases similar to the plant environmental values ​​at the time of formulating the current power generation plan, and if a corresponding case is found, the registered schedule pattern D5 is used to output the calculation result D44. If no corresponding case is found, a schedule pattern D32 is created under the given conditions. The calculation result D32 is output to the display unit 17 for the operator and at the same time transferred to the operation record database DB3.

[0032] In addition, the operation performance comparison unit 23 in the calculation unit CPU compares the results D32 of the formulation calculation stored in the operation performance database DB3 with the performance data D21, D31, and the deviation detection unit 24 extracts deviation items that have a deviation between them and sets them as factors to be processed by the deviation factor classification model analysis unit 22 for each phase in which the deviation occurred.

[0033] The deviation factor classification model analysis unit 22 performs an analysis using a classification model using as input data the environmental values ​​of the plant linked to the location where the deviation occurred this time (internal environmental value D41 is the lifespan of the facility and equipment, external environmental value D42 is the outside temperature, humidity, etc., and operation history D43 is data on whether the operation at the location where the deviation occurred was an HMI screen operation or a direct operation on the user's panel), identifies the cause of the deviation this time, and outputs to the display unit 17 whether the cause should be reflected as a correction the next time calculations for that phase are performed.

[0034] On the display unit 17, the user, having confirmed the results of the deviation factor analysis, interactively inputs and determines whether or not to reflect the results as correction values ​​in the next and subsequent power generation plan formulation calculations. Deviation factors that the user determines need to be reflected as correction values ​​in the next and subsequent formulation calculations are registered in the storage unit (schedule pattern database DB5) for each factor, and are used in the next power generation plan formulation calculation in the power generation plan formulation calculation processing unit 21. Therefore, by analyzing the deviation factors and accumulating schedule patterns each time actual results are collected, the patterns of deviation occurrence that can be taken into account during calculation are updated, improving the accuracy of the formulation calculation results, and therefore the accuracy of the power generation plan formulation increases according to the number of times the system is used.

[0035] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining the processing of the classification model deviation analysis processing unit 22. In the processing of the classification model deviation analysis processing unit 22 in FIG. 3, first, the deviation occurrence phase identification unit 221 references the operation record database DB3 to import performance data and plan data. Note that the plan data is the formulated schedule data D32. Then, a deviation phase is determined between these. For example, by focusing on the required time (or plant state, or both) for the current plant startup and shutdown operation, an operation in which a deviation has occurred is determined for each phase. Note that the reference value for deviation determination can be set arbitrarily by the user.

[0036] For the phase determined to have a deviation, a deviation factor analysis using a classification model is performed in the deviation factor analysis unit 222. The input data used here are the deviation time of the deviation phase identified in the previous step, the environmental values ​​(internal environmental values ​​D41 (facility, equipment lifespan), external environmental values ​​(temperature, weather) D42, data of direct user operation D43) stored in the classification model deviation analysis database DB4, and the schedule pattern D5 registered by identifying past deviation occurrence factors stored in the schedule pattern database DB5.

[0037] The analysis method involves searching for a pattern with similar conditions from schedule pattern D5, using the deviation time and plant state values ​​as the conditions for this analysis. If a match is found, the display / input units 16, 17 display the estimated cause of the deviation this time and the time to be corrected in the next power generation plan formulation. If no match is found, the cause is deemed unknown and the user specifies and inputs the cause of the deviation this time using interactive screen operations to make a judgment. Finally, the user inputs whether the deviation cause and correction time identified this time should be reflected in the power generation plan formulation calculations from the next time onwards, and if they are input as needing to be reflected, they are newly registered in schedule pattern database DB5.

[0038] 4 is a diagram for explaining the processing of the power generation plan formulation calculation processing unit 21 and the classification model deviation analysis processing unit 22. First, in the power generation plan formulation calculation processing unit 21, parameters for the conditions (start / stop, amount of power generation) of the power generation plan to be formulated this time are set by user operation at the input unit 16, and a formulation execution operation is performed. The parameter information input at the input unit 16 in conjunction with the formulation execution operation and basic parameters for the formulation calculation (constant values, physical model, current in-station state values) stored in the power generation plan formulation calculation database DB1 are read into the power generation plan formulation calculation processing unit 21 in the calculation unit CPU, and a power generation plan formulation calculation 211 (start / stop schedule calculation) using the basic model is performed, and a schedule D32 is obtained as the formulation result.

[0039] Next, the classification model deviation analysis processing unit 22 reads the planning result D32 of the power generation plan formulation calculation processing unit 21 and the schedule pattern data D5 that takes into account the occurrence of deviations stored in the schedule pattern database DB5, and performs schedule pattern acquisition analysis 223 using the classification model.

[0040] The analysis method is to search for a pattern with similar conditions from the schedule patterns, using the plant state values ​​at the time of formulation and the results of basic model formulation as the analysis conditions. If a match is found but depends on the internal environment values ​​D41 (facility, equipment life values) or external environment values ​​D42 (temperature, weather), the matched results are reflected as correction values ​​in the results of the start-up / shutdown schedule based on the basic model formulated in the previous stage, and the results of the current schedule formulation calculation are displayed on the screen in the display unit 17.

[0041] If it is a manual operation by the user, there are many cases where human judgment related to plant operation is involved, and since the computer cannot determine whether the same operation will occur this time, it will not be reflected as a correction value, and only a warning and notification will be output to the user using the display unit 17.

[0042] FIG. 5 is a flow diagram of the power generation plan formulation process according to the present invention. In input operation step S1, an operator inputs parameters for formulating the current power generation plan, such as the scheduled start / stop times and power generation amount of each facility, and sets target values. In power generation plan formulation calculation process step S2, an operation schedule is formulated using a basic model for the input parameters. Next, in classification model pattern acquisition and analysis step S3, correction values ​​based on past operating records registered in the schedule pattern database S4 are reflected in the operation schedule formulated from the basic model. In output processing step S5, the formulation results are displayed on an output device such as a monitor, and the operator uses the results to actually operate the power plant. Note that information on the current formulation and actual operations is stored in an operation record database S7 in record collection processing step S6.

[0043] Based on the results of this calculation and actual results, a deviation judgment is made in classification model deviation analysis step S8, the causes of deviation are identified using the classification model, and correction values ​​are output, and patterns that the user determines are necessary for the next and subsequent formulation calculations through interactive screen operations are stored in schedule pattern database S4. As the number of plant startup and shutdown operations increases, formulation results that take into account the current plant state (including the internal environment (equipment life), external environment (temperature, weather)) and operating method are output, making it possible to execute operations according to the formulation results, and no deviations occur between the formulation calculation results and operational results.

[0044] According to the present invention, in addition to formulating start-up and shutdown schedules based on various planned values ​​at the time of plant construction, it is possible to formulate schedules that take into account the past operating history of the power plant by utilizing actual start-up and shutdown data in formulating power generation plans for the next and subsequent years. [Explanation of symbols]

[0045] 1: Power generation planning system 2: Communication network 3: Acquisition part 4: Facilities inside the power plant 15:CPU 16: Input section 17: Display section 18: Communications Department DB1: Database for power generation planning calculations DB2: Database of facility status values DB3: Operational performance database DB4: Database for classification model deviation analysis DB5: Schedule pattern database 21: Power Generation Planning and Calculation Department 23: Performance comparison section 24: Deviation detection unit 22: Deviation factor classification model analysis part

Claims

1. a power generation plan formulation calculation unit that formulates a power generation plan for a power plant using pre-entered conditions and a model; an operation record comparison unit that compares operation records when the power generation plant is operated based on the power generation plan formulated by the power generation plan formulation calculation unit with the power generation plan; a deviation factor classification model analysis unit that analyzes deviation factors that have caused deviations as a result of the comparison by the operation record comparison unit and obtains a schedule pattern that can eliminate the deviation factors; and an output unit that presents at least the power generation plan formulated by the power generation plan formulation calculation unit and the schedule pattern obtained by the deviation factor classification model analysis unit.

2. The power generation planning system according to claim 1, a power generation plan formulation calculation unit that, when formulating a power generation plan for the power plant, searches for a case similar to the plant environmental values ​​at the time of formulating the current power generation plan for the schedule pattern obtained by the deviation factor classification model analysis unit, and if a corresponding case is found, outputs the calculation result as the power generation plan for the power plant using the registered schedule pattern, and if no corresponding case is found, uses previously input conditions and a model to create the power generation plan for the power plant.

3. 3. The power generation planning system according to claim 1, A power generation planning system characterized in that the pre-entered conditions and models are constant and curve data of the power generation plant, operator requirements, and planning calculation logic.

4. The power generation planning system according to claim 1, the operation record comparison unit compares the planning results of the power generation plan formulation calculation unit with the current status of the facility equipment as operator operation records and the record of the time required to start and stop the equipment by operator operation, and determines the cause of the discrepancy.

5. The power generation planning system according to claim 1, The power generation planning system is characterized in that the deviation factor classification model analysis unit analyzes and identifies the deviation factors using information on internal environmental values ​​of the power generation plant, external environmental values ​​of the power generation plant, and operational records, and creates the schedule pattern for each deviation factor.

6. The power generation planning system according to claim 1, The power generation planning system is characterized by comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires state values ​​of a power generation plant; an input unit that inputs start / stop times and required output (amount of generated power); and a memory unit that stores programs required for power generation planning, plant equipment state values, operation records, data for analysis of a deviation factor classification model, and schedule patterns.

7. The power generation planning system according to claim 6, A power generation planning system characterized by comparing the power generation planning results, actual results, and respective plant states to identify phases in which deviations occur, and estimating the causes of deviations for the identified phases through analysis by a classification model using classification model deviation analysis data.

8. A power generation planning method implemented using a computer, comprising: a power generation plan formulation method, characterized in that the computer formulates a power generation plan for a power plant using pre-input conditions and a model, compares the operational results when the power plant is operated based on the formulated power generation plan with the power generation plan, analyzes factors that cause deviations through the comparison, obtains a schedule pattern that can eliminate the factors of deviation, and presents at least the formulated power generation plan and the schedule pattern to an outside of the computer.

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