Degenerative operation plan establishment device, degenerative operation plan establishment method, and power generation control system

Abstract

To provide an optimal degenerative operation planning device capable of presenting facility operation and maintenance measures for the purpose of maximization of revenues and minimization of expenditures due to power generation, an optimal degenerative operation planning method, and a power generation control system with the same.SOLUTION: Provided is a degenerative operation plan establishment device for outputting a degenerative operation plan by inputting outputs of sensors installed in respective parts of a power generation device. The degenerative operation plan establishment device comprises: a deviation degree calculation section which uses the outputs of the sensors in the respective parts of the power generation device to calculate a deviation degree between a normal state and a present point of time with respect to each of the parts; a fault development degree calculation section which determines a fault development degree in each of the parts from a threshold of a deviation degree and the calculated deviation degree regarding each of the parts of the power generation device; and a degenerative operation planning section which holds a plurality of scenarios determining operation / repair states corresponding to the fault development degrees regarding the respective parts and information about a repair measure, repair cost and a repair period for each part and outputs a degenerative operation plan at a point of time in future corresponding to the fault development degree in each part.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a fallback operation plan creation device for a power generation plant, a fallback operation plan creation method, and a power generation control system. [Background technology]

[0002] In order to make a profit, power generation companies want to keep wind turbines running as long as possible, even if they detect signs of malfunction, and postpone repairs until scheduled shutdowns such as regular inspections. In particular, they want to avoid shutdowns during seasons when the wind blows steadily.

[0003] On the other hand, because failures progress as long as the plant continues to operate, early repairs are preferable. Due to this trade-off, determining the optimal timing for repairs is not easy. There are two types of failures: primary failures and advanced secondary failures. Repair costs for primary failures are usually significantly lower than those for secondary failures. This also complicates repair decision-making.

[0004] In relation to these circumstances, for example, Patent Document 1 proposes a predictive diagnostic device that aims to provide a predictive diagnostic device and a power generation control system having the same that can grasp signs of failure in a power generation device and maintain the availability of the power generation device by optimally operating the power generation device in a degraded state, the predictive diagnostic device comprising: an input unit that receives sensor signals that acquire the operating state of the power generation device and a degraded state time limit for operating the power generation device in a degraded state; an output unit that outputs control variables for controlling the power generation device; and a calculation unit, wherein the calculation unit determines a degree of deviation from a normal operating state of equipment that constitutes the power generation device and a rate of change of the degree of deviation based on at least the sensor signals that represent the operating state of the power generation device and the input degraded state time limit, determines at least whether degraded operation is necessary based on the determined degree of deviation and the rate of change of the degree of deviation, and if degraded operation is necessary, updates the control variables of the power generation device based on the degree of deviation and the rate of change of the degree of deviation so as to limit the change in the degree of deviation to within a predetermined change range within a degraded state time limit that is set depending on the operating conditions. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Patent No. 6783110 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] Patent Document 1 proposes a method of detecting signs of a fault and then switching to an operating mode called fallback operation, which slows down the progression of the fault. By operating the system until a planned shutdown for periodic inspection, etc., the decrease in power generation can be minimized compared to when the system is shut down immediately after detection.

[0007] However, Patent Document 1 aims to protect the equipment, and is unable to suppress the decline in power generation taking into account seasonal changes in power generation or changes in repair costs due to the progression of a malfunction.

[0008] In view of the above, an object of the present invention is to provide a fallback operation plan construction device, a fallback operation plan construction method, and a power generation control system having the same, which are capable of presenting measures for facility operation and maintenance aimed at maximizing revenue from power generation and minimizing expenditures. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] In view of the above, the present invention provides a "degenerate operation plan construction device that inputs sensor outputs installed in each part of a power generation device and outputs a degenerate operation plan, characterized in that it comprises: a deviation calculation unit that uses the sensor outputs of each part of the power generation device to calculate the deviation between the normal state and the current state for each part; a failure progression calculation unit that determines the degree of failure progression for each part of the power generation device from the deviation threshold and the calculated deviation; and a degenerate operation plan unit that holds a plurality of scenarios that define operating and repair states for each part according to the degree of failure progression, and information on repair measures, repair costs, and repair periods for each part, and outputs a degenerate operation plan for a future point in time according to the degree of failure progression for each part."

[0010] Further, in the present invention, there is provided a method for constructing a fallback operation plan using a computer, which inputs sensor outputs installed in each part of a power generation system and outputs a fallback operation plan, the computer comprising: a failure progression memory unit which stores, for each part of the power generation system, the degree of failure progression of each part corresponding to a deviation threshold; a fallback plan pattern memory unit which holds a plurality of scenarios which define operation and repair states according to the degree of failure progression for each part; and a countermeasure information memory unit which holds information on repair measures, repair costs, and repair periods for each part, the method comprising: using the sensor outputs of each part of the power generation system to calculate, for each part, the degree of deviation between the normal state and the current state; using the deviation of each part to refer to the failure progression memory unit to determine the degree of failure progression; using the failure progression degree to refer to the fallback plan pattern memory unit to determine a plurality of scenarios; and obtaining information on the repair measures, repair costs, and repair periods for each part from the countermeasure information memory unit according to the type of failure, and outputting a fallback operation plan at a future point in time. "

[0011] Furthermore, the present invention provides a power generation control system comprising: a power generation unit; and a power generation unit controller which receives a power generation command and controls the power generation unit; the power generation control system further comprising: a degenerate operation plan creation device which inputs sensor outputs installed in each part of the power generation unit and modifies the power generation command during degenerate operation of the power generation unit; the degenerate operation plan creation device comprising: a deviation calculation unit which calculates, for each part, the degree of deviation between the normal state and the current state using the sensor outputs of each part of the power generation unit; a failure progression calculation unit which determines, for each part of the power generation unit, the degree of failure progression from the deviation threshold and the calculated deviation; a scenario which defines a degenerate operation state for each part according to the degree of failure progression; and parameters of each part during degenerate operation according to the damaged part of each part and the degree of deviation; the power generation control system which instructs the power generation unit controller to perform degenerate operation according to the degree of failure progression and modifies the power generation command according to the parameters of each part during degenerate operation. [Effects of the Invention]

[0012] According to the present invention, it is possible to select an economically advantageous fallback operation mode and timing of repair work, taking into consideration the income from selling electricity during fallback operation and repair costs. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0013] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of a power generation control system according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Figure 2] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a wind power generation device. [Figure 3] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a failure progression determination table. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a degeneration plan pattern. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of countermeasure information. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a procedure when the degenerate operation plan construction device is used as a simulator. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of construction of a degenerate operation plan. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of construction of a degenerate operation plan. [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of construction of a degenerate operation plan. [Figure 10] 10 is a diagram showing an example of a display screen of the results calculated by the degenerate operation plan creation device 10. FIG. [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of control parameters for degenerate operation. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0014] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the present invention, power generation equipment that detects signs of failure and is subject to fallback operation includes renewable energy power generation equipment such as wind power generation equipment or solar power generation equipment, and thermal power generation equipment. In the present invention, fallback operation does not only refer to an operating state in which power generation output is limited, but also, in a broad sense, refers to a longer-term operating mode that includes periods of shutdown. [Example]

[0015] Fig. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of a power generation control system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The power generation control system in Fig. 1 is an existing power generation control system to which a fallback operation plan creation device 10 according to an embodiment of the present invention has been added, and in Fig. 1, the parts other than the fallback operation plan creation device 10 are the existing power generation control system. Therefore, in the following explanation, the existing power generation control system will be explained first.

[0016] 1 includes a power generation control system 3 that outputs at least a control command to a power generation device 2 (a wind power generation device is exemplified in the following example) to control the power generation device 2, a control sensor 4 and a monitoring sensor 5 that are installed on equipment that constitutes the power generation device 2 and acquire the operating state, an operation history storage unit 6 that stores sensor signals that indicate the operating state of the equipment that constitutes the power generation device 2 and that are acquired by the control sensor 4 and the monitoring sensor 5 as operation history information, an operation terminal 7 that acquires the operation history information from the operation history storage unit 6 and outputs operation commands to the power generation device controller 3, and a communication network 8 that enables access from the operation terminal 7 to the power generation device controller 3 and the operation history storage unit 6. It does not matter whether the communication network 8 is wired or wireless.

[0017] The sensor signal acquired by the control sensor 4 is input to the power generation device controller 3 and the operation history storage unit 6. On the other hand, the sensor signal acquired by the monitoring sensor 5 is input to the operation history storage unit 6.

[0018] Here, the control sensor 4 and the monitoring sensor 5 are sensors that acquire vibration acceleration, displacement, rotation speed, moving speed, and temperatures of cooling media, lubricating media, etc., of the devices (components) that make up the power generation plant 2, and any physical quantity can be detected. The control sensor 4 is a sensor that outputs a sensor signal that is input to the power generation plant controller 3 in order to bring the power generation plant 2 into a desired operating state, and the monitoring sensor 5 is a sensor used to understand the operating state of the power generation plant 2.

[0019] The power generation unit controller 3 operates an operating device (not shown) provided on the power generation unit 2, generally by feedforward control or feedback control, based on operation commands output from the operation terminal 7 and input via the communication network 8, and sensor signals input from the control sensor 4, so that the power generation unit 2 is in the desired operating state.

[0020] Here, examples of operating devices (not shown) provided on the power generation device 2 include, for example, if the power generation device 2 is a wind power generation device, devices such as a pitch mechanism for adjusting the blade pitch angle, a yaw mechanism for adjusting the nacelle azimuth angle, and a power converter for adjusting the generated power.

[0021] The operation terminal 7 includes an input device and a display device (not shown). The input device of the operation terminal 7 is, for example, a keyboard or a mouse, and the display device of the operation terminal 7 is, for example, a liquid crystal display (LCD) or an organic EL display. The operation terminal 7 can display the operating state of the power generation plant 2 on the screen of the display device, and can acquire operation history information of the power generation plant 2 accumulated (stored) in the operation history storage unit 6 via the communication network 8, and display the acquired operation history information of the power generation plant 2 on the screen of a display device (not shown) in a display format such as a time-series waveform or a numerical table.

[0022] Furthermore, the power generation system controller 3, control sensor 4, and monitoring sensor 5 are generally installed physically close to the power generation system 2, while other devices and equipment may be installed in a control room constructed in a physically remote location via a communication network 8, or may be installed in multiple locations for operational convenience and redundancy. The operation terminal 7 may also be configured to be installed within the power generation system 2. In addition, a group of devices and sensors required for the power generation operation of the power generation system 2, as well as a group of information devices such as an operation terminal, storage device, and display device (not shown), may also be provided.

[0023] 2 shows an enlarged configuration example of a wind power generation device as the power generation device 2, the wind power generation device 2a includes blades 24 that rotate when exposed to wind, a hub 23 that supports the blades 24, a nacelle 22, and a tower 21 that rotatably supports the nacelle 22. The nacelle 22 is provided with a main shaft 25 that is connected to the hub 23 and rotates together with the hub 23, a shrink disk 26 that is coupled to the main shaft 25, a speed increaser 27 that is connected to the main shaft 25 via the shrink disk 26 and increases the rotational speed, and a generator 28 that generates electricity by rotating the rotor at the rotational speed increased by the speed increaser 27.

[0024] The portion that transmits the rotational energy of the blades 24 to the generator 28 is called a power transmission portion, and in this embodiment, the main shaft 25, the shrink disk 26, and the speed increaser 27 are included in the power transmission portion. The speed increaser 27 and the generator 28 are held on a main frame 29. The blades 24 and the hub 23 form a rotor.

[0025] As shown in Fig. 1, a power converter 30 that converts the frequency of power, a switching switch that switches current on and off, a transformer, and other devices (not shown) are arranged at the bottom (lower part) of the tower 21. Note that the wind turbine generator 2a shown in Fig. 2 is a downwind type wind turbine generator as an example, but is not limited to this and may be an upwind type wind turbine generator. Also, while an example is shown in which the rotor is configured with three blades 24 and a hub 23, this is not limited to this and the rotor may be configured with a hub 23 and at least one blade 24. The wind turbine generator 2a according to this embodiment can be installed in any location, such as offshore, mountainous, or plain areas.

[0026] The control sensors 4 constituting the power generation control system include, for example, a sensor installed at the base of the blades 24 to measure the blade pitch angle, a sensor installed at the base of the main shaft 25 to measure the rotor azimuth angle, a sensor to measure the azimuth angle of the nacelle 22, and an anemometer (not shown) installed on top of the nacelle 22 to measure wind speed. Furthermore, the control sensors 4 also include sensors to measure the wind direction, the rotation speed of the generator 28, the amount of power generated, etc. In other words, the control sensors 4 are sensors that measure various conditions necessary for controlling the wind turbine generator 2a. Furthermore, the monitoring sensors 5 include, for example, sensors to measure the temperature and humidity inside the nacelle 22, the temperature of the lubricating medium, and the vibration acceleration and displacement of the gearbox 27 and / or the generator 28.

[0027] As the power generation device controller 3 constituting the power generation control system, for example, a control panel or SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) is used. In Fig. 1, an example in which the power generation device controller 2 is arranged outside the tower 21 is shown, but this is not limiting, and the power generation device controller 3 may also be arranged at the bottom (lower part) inside the tower 21.

[0028] The power generation control system according to this embodiment of Fig. 1 is an existing power generation control system equipped with a fallback operation plan building device 10. The fallback operation plan building device 10 has an input unit 11, a calculation unit 12 including a deviation calculation unit 14, a fault progression calculation unit 15, and a fallback operation plan building unit 16, an output unit 13, and a fault progression determination table storage unit DB1, a fallback plan pattern storage unit DB2, a past power generation amount storage unit DB3, and a countermeasure information storage unit DB4 as storage units.

[0029] The input unit 11, the calculation unit 12, and the output unit 13 that constitute the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 are realized by, for example, a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) not shown, a ROM that stores various programs, a RAM that temporarily stores data in the calculation process, and a storage device such as an external storage device, and the processor such as the CPU reads and executes the various programs stored in the ROM, and stores the calculation results that are the execution results in the RAM or the external storage device.

[0030] The storage unit may be constructed in an external storage device, and a communication I / F may be provided in the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 so that the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 accesses the storage unit via the communication I / F. Also, the storage unit may be built into the calculation unit 12.

[0031] In this way, sensor information (control sensors, monitoring sensors) of the wind turbine is stored in the operation history storage unit. Also, the sensor information is taken into the input unit 11 of the degenerate operation plan creation device at certain intervals.

[0032] An input unit 11 constituting the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 receives sensor signals from the monitoring sensors 5 installed in the wind power generation plant 2a, and a degenerate deadline that is input by the operator of the wind power generation plant 2a to the operation terminal 7 via an input device (not shown) and then via the communication network 8. The input unit 11 performs various filtering processes or envelope processing to remove noise, or frequency analysis such as Fourier transform or wavelet transform on the input sensor signals, to extract physical quantities that indicate the characteristics of the operating state of the wind power generation plant 2a.

[0033] The degeneration deadline does not need to be input all the time, and may be continuously stored in the storage unit as long as there is no change in the information previously input to the calculation unit. That is, the degeneration deadline may be set as a set of dates based on a regular maintenance plan for the wind turbine generator 2a when the wind turbine generator 2a starts operating, or may be set as the date of the next scheduled periodic maintenance at the time of regular maintenance.

[0034] Furthermore, the deviation calculation unit 14 described later may use the operation terminal 7 to set at any time a date that takes into consideration at least one of the following factors: the date when maintenance workers and equipment such as cranes used for maintenance work will be available to correct the deviation state of equipment for which a deviation from the normal state has been detected; the date when replacement equipment or parts that make up the equipment will be available; and dates and times determined by external factors such as weather, i.e., the date when maintenance of parts or equipment for which a deviation from the normal state has been detected will be possible.

[0035] The fallback operation plan construction device 10 according to the present invention will be described below. What is important here is that this device functions as a simulator that estimates future states, and that when the fallback operation plan construction device 10 is started up, a fatal failure state has not yet occurred. Although the system is not yet in a failure state, if operation continues as is, the system attempts to estimate when a failure state will occur and to explore the best way to continue operation while avoiding a failure state.

[0036] In addition, this device can be applied as a monitoring and control device, in which case it can be used as a device that monitors fault conditions and operates a generator by issuing a power generation command to a power generation device controller to enable continued operation with reduced power generation output (degenerate operation). In Example 1 of the present invention, the use as a simulator will be mainly described, and in Example 2, the operation of a generator by issuing a power generation command for degenerate operation to a power generation device controller will be mainly described.

[0037] In the following description of use as a simulator, the configuration and function of each part of the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 will be described separately from the description of how to make it function as a simulator. For the former description, refer to Figures 1, 3, 4, and 5, and for the latter description, refer to Figures 6, 7, 8, and 9.

[0038] First, we will explain the configuration and functions of each part of the degenerate operation plan creation device 10. First, the deviation calculation unit 14, which is the first processing function of the calculation unit that makes up the degenerate operation plan creation device 10, processes physical quantities that indicate the characteristics of the operating state of the wind power generation device 2a obtained via the input unit 11 and calculates the deviation from the normal state. Here, the deviation can be calculated using a category classification method that uses the Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) disclosed in, for example, JP 2016-12158 A or JP 2016-81482 A.

[0039] That is, assuming that category classification is performed in a two-dimensional space, the deviation is calculated based on the distance from the center of gravity of the normal category defined by a circle in the two-dimensional space, or the distance from the circumference of the closest normal category among the boundaries (circles) of the normal category. Note that the calculation of the deviation from the normal state is not necessarily limited to the above-mentioned adaptive resonance theory (ART), and any method that can define the deviation, such as Mahalanobis distance, may be used. The deviation calculation unit 14 of the calculation unit compares the calculated deviation from the normal state with a threshold value, which will be described later, and determines whether or not degenerate operation is required.

[0040] Here, the timing of calculation of the deviation from the normal state by the deviation calculation unit 14 is important. In particular, the input energy (wind) of the wind power generation plant 2a cannot be controlled. Therefore, whether or not the wind power generation plant 2a is operating is dependent on the input energy (wind). Therefore, if there is no input energy (wind), a sensor signal related to the operating state of the wind power generation plant 2a, which is used to calculate the deviation from the normal state, cannot be obtained. Unless there is a certain wind speed, power generation operation is not performed. Therefore, unless the power generation operation state is at the same level, the deviation cannot be calculated, or there is a risk of calculating an erroneously low deviation. Therefore, it is important that the deviation calculation unit 14 uses information obtained from the input unit 11 to determine whether or not to perform the calculation according to a predetermined standard, or to attach operating information at the time of calculation to the calculated deviation.

[0041] Furthermore, the deviation calculation unit 14 calculates the rate of change of the deviation described above. The rate of change of the deviation is calculated by operating the wind turbine generator 2a under the same operating conditions for a predetermined period, and dividing the increase or decrease in the degree of deviation calculated under the same power generation operating state at the start and end of the predetermined period by that period.

[0042] Here, "same operating conditions" means that the control variables that characterize the response of the wind turbine generator 2a to an operation command are not changed. The control variables include at least one of a control gain that determines the tracking characteristics to the control command value, a limit value that imposes a limit on the internal variables or the change rate of the internal variables in the generator controller 3 so that they fall within a specific value range or a limit value that prevents the internal variables from falling within a specific value range, and a filter constant that determines filter characteristics such as suppressing sharp temporal fluctuations or fluctuations at a specific frequency.

[0043] In other words, the same control variables, i.e., the various parameters described above, correspond to the same operating conditions. This is because, although in this embodiment, a wind power generation plant 2a is described as an example of the power generation plant 2, the power generation plant 2 also includes renewable energy power generation plants such as solar power generation plants and thermal power generation plants as described above, and although the input energy and output of the power generation plant 2 vary depending on the type of power generation plant 2, the same control variables (various parameters including the above-mentioned control gains) can be considered to be the same operating conditions.

[0044] Although the input energy (wind) of the wind power generation plant 2a is uncontrollable, not only in renewable energy power generation plants such as the wind power generation plant 2a, but also in power generation plants 2 such as thermal power generation plants where the input energy (in the case of thermal power generation plants, the amount of heat generated by burning coal or gas) can be controlled, the power consumption by power consumers is uncontrollable and constantly fluctuates, making it impossible to continue the same operation of the power generation plant 2 for a specified period of time.

[0045] In addition, "under the same power generation operation state" means that, as described above, the operation information during the calculation of the deviation degree by the deviation degree calculation unit 14 is the same. In the wind power generation device 2a, for example, a state where the same wind speed is obtained or the same rotation of the blade 24 is obtained and the same generated electric power is generated corresponds to the same power generation operation state. Thereby, when the power generation operation is carried out at the start point of a predetermined period and the power generation operation has stopped at the end point, it is possible to suppress the misrecognition that the deviation degree has been improved.

[0046] In addition, at least one of the average value of the deviation degree, the maximum value of the deviation degree, and the minimum value of the deviation degree within a predetermined period may be used as the deviation degree at the start in the subsequent predetermined period, and at least one of the average value of the deviation degree, the maximum value of the deviation degree, and the minimum value of the deviation degree in the subsequent predetermined period may be similarly used as the deviation degree at the end. Also by this, it is possible to correct the evaluation of the deviation degree based on the operation results of the wind power generation device 2a.

[0047] In this way, using the captured sensor information, the deviation degree calculation unit 14 calculates the deviation degree and the change speed of the deviation degree for each part of the wind power generation device 2a. In response to this, the fault progress degree calculation unit 15 determines the fault progress degree using the fault progress degree determination table stored in the fault progress degree determination table storage unit DB1.

[0048] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a fault progress degree determination table for each part of the wind power generation device 2a. In the case of FIG. 3, the speed increaser and the blade are exemplified as the parts of the wind power generation device 2a. For example, when the deviation degree obtained from the sensor signal related to the speed increaser is below the threshold value NP, the fault progress degree is set to "normal", and when the deviation degree is below the threshold value NQ (NP < NQ), the fault progress degree is set to "detected", when the deviation degree is below the threshold value NR (NQ < NR), the fault progress degree is set to "bearing abnormality (primary fault)", and when the deviation degree is above the threshold value NR, the fault progress degree is set to "speed increaser abnormality (secondary fault)".

[0049] Similarly, when the degree of deviation obtained from the sensor signal regarding the blade is less than or equal to the threshold value NA, the degree of fault progression is set to "normal"; when the degree of deviation is less than or equal to the threshold value NB (NA < NB), the degree of fault progression is set to "surface roughness detection"; when the degree of deviation is less than or equal to the threshold value NC (NB < NC), the degree of fault progression is set to "crack (small)"; and when the degree of deviation is greater than or equal to the threshold value NC, the degree of fault progression is set to "crack".

[0050] Next, the threshold value N of the degree of deviation will be described. As ways of defining the threshold value N of the degree of deviation, for example, there are the following. In a state where the wind power generation device 2a can be defined as a sound state, the feature amount of the sensor signal output from the monitoring sensor 5 that should originally be obtained is pre-learned by the degree-of-deviation calculation unit 14 or the like to create a standard for the degree of deviation.

[0051] Based on this standard, for example, regarding the blade in FIG. 3, the minimum degree of deviation that should be determined to deviate from the sound state is defined as A, the degree of deviation that should be determined to be sufficiently deviated is defined as B, and the degree of deviation that, if the wind power generation device 2a is not immediately stopped, may affect the functions and lifetimes of other devices is defined as C. These degrees of deviation A to C are respectively stored in the fault progression determination table storage unit DB1 in advance as the threshold values NA to NC. If necessary in operation, in addition to the above-mentioned threshold values NA to NC, the threshold value N of the degree of deviation may be further defined in a more refined manner.

[0052] Also, as another method of defining the threshold value N of the degree of deviation, the feature amount of the sensor signal output from the monitoring sensor 5 obtained in a state where the wind power generation device 2a can be defined as a sound state is pre-learned by the degree-of-deviation calculation unit 14 or the like. Furthermore, the operation history data of the wind power generation device in the past when an actual fault case occurred is similarly learned by the degree-of-deviation calculation unit 基于此标准,例如,关于图3中的叶片,将应判定为偏离健全状态的最小偏差度定义为A,将应判定为充分偏离的偏差度定义为B,将如果不立即停止风力发电装置2a可能会影响其他设备的功能和寿命的偏差度定义为C。这些偏差度A至C分别作为阈值NA至NC预先存储在故障进展度判定表存储部DB1中。如果在运行中有必要,除了上述阈值NA至NC之外,还可以进一步细分来定义偏差度的阈值N。

[0053] In addition, when there is no actual failure case, an analysis or experiment that can define a sound state is carried out using an analysis model or a reduced-scale model of the actual machine that simulates the wind power generation device 2a, numerical values corresponding to the monitoring sensor 5 are collected, and a failure is introduced into the analysis model or the reduced-scale model of the actual machine that simulates the failure, and numerical values corresponding to the sensor signal output from the same monitoring sensor 5 are collected. This is regarded as data at the time of failure and is pre-learned by the divergence calculation unit 14. The reference and the threshold value NC in a sound state are defined respectively, and the threshold value NA and the threshold value NB may be defined in the same way. Furthermore, when the degree of failure can be simulated by the analysis model or the reduced-scale model of the actual machine, the threshold values NA to NC may be defined respectively based on the data obtained by the degree simulation.

[0054] In the following description, the threshold value NA is set as a light divergence level that does not require the derated operation of the wind power generation device 2a, the threshold value NB is set as a medium divergence level for determining the start of the derated operation of the wind power generation device 2a, and the threshold value NC is set as a heavy divergence level. Also, assuming that the greater the divergence degree, the more the devices or components of the wind power generation device 2a deviate from the sound state, the above-mentioned threshold values NA to NC shall satisfy the relationship of NA < NB < NC.

[0055] Each deviation may be defined by a single numerical value or a combination of numerical values. Here, the "combination of numerical values" refers to a combination of multiple parameters, such as the output of the generator 28 disposed in the nacelle 22 of the wind turbine generator 2a, the pitch angle of the blades 25, and the wind direction, when, for example, adaptive resonance theory (ART) is used to calculate the deviation, as described above. Therefore, when each deviation is defined by a combination of numerical values, the deviation is calculated based on the distance from the center of gravity of the normal category in the multidimensional space or the distance from the closest boundary of the normal category in the multidimensional space. Alternatively, multiple thresholds may be defined depending on the cause of the deviation event. For example, in the wind turbine generator 2a, the deviation of the gear of the gearbox 27 from normal and the deviation of the bearing of the gearbox 27 from normal may be defined by different numerical values ​​or groups of numerical values. Furthermore, even for a single part or its constituent parts, the definition of the threshold may differ depending on the phenomenon that causes the deviation. For example, in the wind turbine generator 2a, the definition of the deviation degree for tooth surface damage of the gear of the speed increaser 27 and the definition of the deviation degree for tooth root damage may be expressed by different numerical values ​​and groups of numerical values.

[0056] As a result, when a deviation is detected by the deviation calculation unit 14, it is possible to estimate that the cause of the deviation is the equipment constituting the wind power generation plant 2a, a component of the equipment, or a portion of the component. Therefore, when a slight deviation is detected, by pre-ordering the equipment constituting the wind power generation plant 2a or the component of the equipment, the lead time for responding to a malfunction when the deviation becomes more severe can be reduced, thereby contributing to suppressing a decrease in the availability rate of the wind power generation plant 2a. Furthermore, even if a malfunction does not occur, by focusing maintenance on the portion where a slight deviation is detected during regular maintenance, the lifespan of the equipment constituting the wind power generation plant 2a can be expected to be extended. Needless to say, this can also improve the business viability of the power generation company.

[0057] In any case, the state in which the wind turbine generator 2a can be defined as being in a healthy state can be defined as a state in which the deviation does not reach any of the above-mentioned thresholds (thresholds NA to NC). If the deviation deviates from this state, that is, if the deviation deviates from the minimum value (for example, threshold NA) of the group of values ​​constituting the defined deviation thresholds, this can be detected as a significant change in the wind turbine generator 2a, and it is desirable to check this on-site.

[0058] Thus, for example, if the deviation from the normal state of a gearbox is NP, then if the deviation in the column for the part in the fault progression determination table for the row "gearbox" is NP or less, the corresponding fault progression column is referenced and the determination is made that the deviation is "normal," whereas if it is between NP and NQ, the fault progression is determined to be "detected."

[0059] The process ends when the fault progression degree is normal as determined by the fault progression degree calculation unit 15. If the fault progression degree is other than normal, the fallback operation plan creation unit 16 creates fallback plan information.

[0060] The fallback operation plan creating unit 16 of the first embodiment refers to the fallback plan pattern storage unit DB2, the past power generation amount storage unit DB3, and the countermeasure information storage unit DB4 to create a fallback operation plan.

[0061] The processing of the degenerate operation plan construction unit 16 is initiated when the judgment result of the fault progression calculation unit 15 is "fault progression is other than normal," and first, the degenerate operation plan pattern corresponding to the part for which the deviation degree has been calculated is extracted from the degenerate operation plan pattern storage unit DB2.

[0062] FIG. 4 shows examples of degenerate schedule patterns stored in the degenerate schedule pattern storage unit DB2. The operation and repair scenarios for the degenerate schedule patterns are determined by the damaged part and the failure event. In this example, in the case of pattern 1, when the damaged part is a gearbox and the failure event is a rotational system abnormality, the operation and repair scenario is "normal operation until a gearbox abnormality occurs, when the gearbox abnormality occurs, the gearbox is stopped and replaced (repair work) and normal operation is restored after the repair work." Similarly, in the case of pattern 2, when the damaged part is an amplifier and the failure event is a rotational system abnormality, the operation and repair scenario is "normal operation until a bearing abnormality occurs, when the bearing abnormality occurs, the bearing is stopped and replaced (repair work) and normal operation is restored after the repair work." Furthermore, in the case of pattern 3, when the damaged part is an amplifier and the failure event is a rotational system abnormality, the operation and repair scenario is "degenerate operation begins at the time of detection and repair preparation begins, degenerate operation continues until a bearing abnormality occurs, and normal operation is restored after the repair work."

[0063] Returning to Fig. 1, the degenerate operation plan creation unit 16 next refers to the past power generation amount storage unit DB3. Although the contents stored in the past power generation amount storage unit DB3 are not shown, the past power generation amount, time, and operating state are stored in association with each other. In the case of wind power generation, the operating state includes, for example, wind direction, wind speed, and rotation speed.

[0064] Furthermore, the degenerate operation plan creation unit 16 in Fig. 1 references the countermeasure information storage unit DB4. Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of countermeasure information stored in the countermeasure information storage unit DB4, in which a repair measure, repair cost, and repair work lead time are stored for each damaged portion. For example, if the judgment result in the failure severity judgment table in Fig. 3 is a bearing abnormality in the gearbox, the repair measure is to replace the bearing, with a repair cost of 20 million yen and a repair work lead time of one month. Similarly, if the judgment result is a gearbox abnormality, the repair measure is to replace the gearbox, with a repair cost of 100 million yen and a repair work lead time of six months.

[0065] For example, if the fault severity assessment table in Figure 3 shows that the blade surface is rough, the repair will require surface painting, with a repair cost of 15 million yen and a repair work lead time of one month. Similarly, if the blade is cracked, the repair will require blade replacement, with a repair cost of 1,000 million yen and a repair work lead time of eight months.

[0066] Using the information stored in the above storage units, the degenerate operation plan creation unit 16 creates degenerate plan information. The degenerate operation plan creation unit 16 first extracts a degenerate plan pattern corresponding to the part for which the deviation degree has been calculated from the degenerate plan pattern storage unit DB2.

[0067] For example, consider the case where the fault progression calculation unit 15 refers to the fault progression determination table DB1 in FIG. 3 and finds that the deviation of the gearbox exceeds the threshold NR, resulting in a determination that the gearbox is abnormal. In this case, the degenerate operation plan creation unit 16 refers to the degenerate plan pattern storage unit DB2 in FIG. 4 and extracts Pattern 1, Pattern 2, and Pattern 3 as degenerate plan patterns for the gearbox abnormality. These degenerate plan patterns are determined by the damaged part and the fault event, and the subsequent operation content differs. Therefore, the present invention attempts to calculate the operating state, cost, period, etc., for this pattern. The above series of processes is also performed for the deviations of other parts, and degenerate plan patterns are extracted for all cases where the deviation exceeds the threshold. The extracted degenerate plan patterns lead to the operation and repair scenario shown in FIG. 4.

[0068] In the above explanation, it has been described that a degenerate schedule pattern is extracted for each of all cases where the deviation degree is exceeded, but if there is room in the processing capacity of the computer calculation unit, the same processing may be performed on parts in a normal state.

[0069] The configuration and functions of each part of the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 have been explained above. Next, the functioning of the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 as a simulator will be explained. The procedure for using the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 as a simulator is illustrated in FIG. 6. The explanation of FIG. 6 will be given with reference to FIG. 7.

[0070] Fig. 7 is a diagram showing an example of a degenerate operation plan construction, with the horizontal axis representing time and the vertical axis representing the deviation, cost, and revenue over time. In this diagram, the calculation time tc is, for example, the start time ts of the simulation, and this calculation is performed at a predetermined interval. When this calculation time tc is reached, the degenerate operation plan construction device 10 shown in Fig. 1 is started, the deviation calculation unit 14 calculates the deviation at this time, and the rate of change (Δd / Δt) at the current time is determined using the amount of change in the deviation (Δd).

[0071] In the example of Figure 7, the deviation at the start time ts is equal to or greater than the threshold value NP, but has not yet reached the threshold value NQ. In other words, it can be said to be in a state of extremely minor initial failure. In this state, the deviation calculation unit 14 sequentially estimates the deviation after a certain time has elapsed since the start time ts using the rate of change of the deviation (Δd / Δt). As a result, a deviation estimation line L1 is obtained, and accordingly, the arrival time of the threshold value NQ and the arrival time of the threshold value NR are sequentially calculated.

[0072] The flow in Fig. 6 starts on the premise that such time-series estimation of the deviation degree is performed sequentially. The flow in Fig. 6 describes the processing at one calculation point, but in reality, the same processing flow is executed sequentially with a calculation cycle of every time Δt. Note that the processing of the first processing step S1 has already been performed in the above explanation, so a description thereof will be omitted.

[0073] At each calculation time, processing step S2 calculates the amount of power generated by the wind turbine at that time. The amount of power generated by the wind turbine is calculated by multiplying the expected power generation by the power generation rate. The expected power generation is the amount of power that can be expected to be generated by the wind turbine during the calculation time interval. Although the power generation over several years can be averaged, a more accurate power generation amount can be determined by using the average power generation per month from past power generation, for example. For this process, the past power generation amount storage unit B2 is referenced. The power generation rate is the percentage of the expected power generation that can be generated in the relevant operating mode. For example, normal operation is set to 100%, stopped to 0%, and during degenerate operation it is set to any value in between.

[0074] In processing step S3, the deviation degree and fault progression degree calculated at successive timings are updated. The deviation degree Dc is added with the deviation degree change amount Δd to obtain a new deviation degree Dc. The fault progression degree is determined using the fault progression determination table in Figure 3.

[0075] In processing step S4, the operation mode of the wind turbine (normal operation, degenerate operation, or stop) is determined. This determination is made by referring to the degeneration plan pattern table in Fig. 4 and following the operation and repair scenario corresponding to the selected pattern.

[0076] In processing step S5, the loop ends when the set simulation end point is reached, and if the end point has not been reached, the process proceeds to processing step S6. The end point can be determined as a predetermined time period elapsed from the start of calculation in the simulation example of Figure 7, or when a predetermined result has been achieved, or when the lead time for repair work has elapsed.

[0077] In processing step S6, if there are repairs in the plan, the repair costs are recorded. In processing step S7, the deviation change Δd and the power generation rate are updated. In processing step S8, the calculation time tc is updated by adding the calculation period Δt. Then, the process returns to processing step S2 and the calculation is repeated until completion.

[0078] This repeated calculation loop is executed for all operation plan patterns in Figure 4. This loop determines the amount of power generated and repair costs incurred for each calculation time interval. In addition, by accumulating these, the income and expenditure for the power generation company becomes clear, allowing appropriate measures to be taken.

[0079] FIG. 7 shows the simulation results when a simulation was performed according to the scenario for pattern 1 in FIG. 4, FIG. 8 shows the simulation results when a simulation was performed according to the scenario for pattern 2 in FIG. 4, and FIG. 9 shows the simulation results when a simulation was performed according to the scenario for pattern 3 in FIG. 4.

[0080] In the example of Figure 7, normal operation continues until the speed increaser experiences an abnormal rotation (secondary failure), so repairs begin after the threshold value NR is reached, and normal operation returns after a six-month repair period. The cost at this time is the sum of the lost profit due to the six-month shutdown and the repair cost of 100 million, and this loss of revenue is reflected in the revenue forecast.

[0081] In the example of Figure 8, normal operation continues until a bearing abnormality (primary failure) occurs in the gearbox, so repairs begin after the threshold (NQ ≥ NR) is reached, and normal operation returns after a one-month repair period. The cost at this time is the sum of the lost profit due to the one-month shutdown and the repair cost of 20M, and the revenue forecast reflects this revenue loss.

[0082] In the example of Figure 8, normal operation is performed until the gearbox is detected, so after the threshold (NQ) is reached, the system goes into degenerate operation while repairs are carried out, and returns to normal after the repairs. The cost at this time is the sum of the lost profit due to degenerate operation and the repair costs, and the revenue forecast reflects this revenue loss.

[0083] In the above simulation, the deviation change Δd can be calculated by using the average value over a certain period of time from the deviation accumulation unit 14. The expected power generation amount is obtained from the past power generation amount storage unit DB3. Furthermore, the expected power sales income can be obtained by multiplying the integrated power generation amount calculated every Δt by the estimated power sales price.

[0084] These provide the degeneration period, operation and repair scenario, revenue from selling electricity, and repair costs for each degeneration plan pattern. From these, the degeneration operation plan creation unit 16 calculates an evaluation value for each degeneration plan pattern. The degeneration operation plan creation unit 16 places emphasis on the value obtained by subtracting repair costs from revenue from selling electricity, but it may also make a comprehensive evaluation that takes into account current difficulties in procuring parts, such as supply chain disruptions due to the emergence of pirates.

[0085] These are compiled as degenerate plan information and output from the degenerate operation plan creation device 10. Figure 10 is a diagram showing an example of a display screen of the results calculated by the degenerate operation plan creation device 10. For multiple scenarios for each damaged part and event, the degenerate period, degenerate operation method, income from selling electricity, repair costs, evaluation values, etc. are displayed in a list that the user can select from. Note that these displays may also be displayed on a time axis as in Figures 7 to 9, and the display of the present invention is not limited to this format. The user refers to the evaluation values ​​for each of the displayed degenerate plan patterns, selects one of the candidates, and presses the OK button to execute, which sends a control command to the wind turbine and executes it.

[0086] In the present invention, the term "degenerate operation" broadly refers to a longer-term operation mode including periods of suspension.

[0087] The present invention described above takes into account that for power generation companies, whether or not to stop a wind turbine for repairs is a comprehensive decision that takes into account the revenue from selling electricity up until the turbine is stopped and the expenses for repairs. It determines when degraded operation should be used to suppress the progression of a failure (extend the turbine's life) and the optimal time for repairs by conducting simulations in combination with conventional predictive and control technologies, and creates an optimal operation plan.

[0088] According to the present invention, it is possible to select an economically advantageous fallback operation mode and timing of repair work, taking into consideration the income from selling electricity during fallback operation and repair costs. [Example]

[0089] In the second embodiment, the output of the fallback operation plan constructing unit 16 in FIG. 1 is given to the power generation unit control unit 3, and the power generation target is corrected to realize the fallback operation.

[0090] Therefore, in order to realize the degenerate operation, the degenerate operation plan creation unit 16 of the second embodiment refers to the control parameters of the degenerate operation in addition to the degenerate plan pattern storage unit DB2, the past power generation amount storage unit DB3, and the countermeasure information storage unit DB4.

[0091] In the second embodiment, the fallback operation plan creation unit 16 refers to the control parameters for fallback operation shown in Fig. 11. In this table, the vertical axis shows predicted damaged parts of the wind turbine generator and deviation thresholds, and the horizontal axis shows parameters used for fallback operation (coefficients by which parameters during normal operation are multiplied). Specifically, for example, when there is an abnormality in the rotation system of the gearbox, the deviation is equal to or less than the threshold NP, and therefore the parameters of each part of the wind turbine generator during normal operation are "1".

[0092] On the other hand, when there is an abnormality in the rotation system of the gearbox and the deviation is equal to or greater than the threshold value NP, the parameters of each part of the wind turbine generator are multiplied by an appropriate value less than "1". In other words, the maximum generator rotation speed is set to 0.95, the power generation rate to 0.7, but the maximum generator rotation speed change rate and maximum pitch angle change rate remain at 1. A similar parameter coefficient review is performed, with appropriate coefficients set according to the deviation of the damaged part, but the greater the deviation, the smaller the coefficient multiplied by the parameter. This reduces the load during degenerate operation.

[0093] As a result, as the calculation time is successively changed to estimate the future, an abnormality in a wind turbine component may be detected and the wind turbine may enter fallback operation. In this case, the amount of power generated in the simulation can be calculated by multiplying an appropriate coefficient by referring to the "fallback operation control parameters" shown in Figure 11.

[0094] Specifically, for example, in the case of the abnormal rotation system of the speed increaser in FIG. 11 (<NQ), among the parameters of each part during the degraded operation, it is conceivable to multiply the smallest parameter coefficient (in this case, 0.7 of the power generation rate) by the power generation command to obtain a new power generation command. Note that there can be various ways of thinking when applying the coefficient to the power generation command.

[0095] In the embodiment, in the case of the degraded operation of FIG. 9, Scenario 3, the control during this period can refer to the operation and repair scenario described in the degradation plan pattern of FIG. 4 and refer to the "control parameters of the degraded operation" in FIG. 11 to know the specific control commands for the wind turbine. At the same time, the power generation rate at each stage of the operation and repair scenario can also be known. Using this, the simulation can be carried out according to the simulation workflow.

[0096] According to Embodiment 2, in addition to the usage as a simulator, it can contribute to the creation of the power generation command during the degraded operation as a monitoring control function.

Explanation of Signs

[0097] 10: Degraded operation plan construction device 11: Input part 14: Deviation degree calculation part 15: Fault progress degree calculation part 16: Degraded operation plan construction part 13: Output part DB1: Fault progress degree determination table storage part DB2: Degradation plan pattern storage part DB3: Past power generation amount storage part DB4: Countermeasure information storage part

Claims

1. A fallback operation plan construction device that inputs sensor outputs installed in various parts of a power generation device and outputs a fallback operation plan, A fallback operation plan construction device comprising: a deviation calculation unit that calculates the deviation between the normal state and the current state for each part of the power generation device using the sensor output of each part; a failure progression calculation unit that determines the degree of failure progression for each part of the power generation device from the deviation threshold and the calculated deviation; and a fallback operation planning unit that holds a plurality of scenarios that define operating and repair states for each part according to the degree of failure progression, and information on repair measures, repair costs, and repair periods for each part, and outputs a fallback operation plan for a future point in time according to the degree of failure progression of each part.

2. 2. The degenerate operation plan construction device according to claim 1, The scenario defines operation and repair states for each damaged part and failure event according to the degree of progression of the failure.

3. 2. The degenerate operation plan construction device according to claim 1, A fallback operation plan creation device that outputs a fallback operation plan for a future time point when the degree of failure progression of each part is other than normal.

4. 2. The degenerate operation plan construction device according to claim 1, 1. A fallback operation plan creation device, comprising: a storage unit for storing past amounts of power generation; and a lost profit calculated from the past amounts of power generation and the amount of power generation during a fallback operation period, the lost profit being included in the repair cost.

5. 2. The degenerate operation plan construction device according to claim 1, A fallback operation plan creation device that displays a plurality of fallback operation plans determined for each of the plurality of scenarios on an external display device in comparison with each other.

6. 2. The degenerate operation plan construction device according to claim 1, The failure progression calculation unit estimates the future deviation from the current deviation and the change in the deviation, and determines the failure progression by comparing the estimated deviation with a threshold value.

7. A fallback operation plan construction method using a computer, which inputs sensor outputs installed in various parts of a power generation system and outputs a fallback operation plan, The computer includes a failure progression storage unit that stores the failure progression of each part of the power generation equipment in correspondence with a deviation threshold, a degenerate plan pattern storage unit that stores a plurality of scenarios that define operation and repair states for each part according to the failure progression, and a countermeasure information storage unit that stores information on repair measures, repair costs, and repair periods for each part, A method for constructing a degenerate operation plan, characterized by using the sensor output of each part of a power generation device to calculate the degree of deviation between the normal state and the current state for each part, using the deviation of each part to refer to a failure progression memory unit to determine the degree of failure progression, using the degree of failure progression to refer to a degenerate plan pattern memory unit to determine multiple scenarios, obtaining information on repair measures, repair costs, and repair periods for each part from the countermeasure information memory unit according to the type of failure, and outputting a degenerate operation plan for a future point in time.

8. A power generation control system including a power generation device and a power generation device controller that receives a power generation command and controls the power generation device, a fallback operation plan creation device that receives sensor outputs installed in various parts of the power generation device and corrects the power generation command during fallback operation of the power generation device; The fallback operation plan creation device includes a deviation calculation unit that calculates the deviation between the normal state and the current state for each part of the power generation system using the sensor output of each part, a failure progression calculation unit that determines the degree of failure progression for each part of the power generation system from the deviation threshold and the calculated deviation, a scenario that defines a fallback operation state for each part according to the degree of failure progression, and parameters for each part during fallback operation according to the damaged part and deviation of each part, and instructs the power generation system controller to perform fallback operation according to the degree of failure progression, and modifies the power generation command according to the parameters of each part during fallback operation.

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