Information processing apparatus, information processing method, and information processing program

Abstract

To provide an information processing apparatus that easily estimates the total effective power of photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to an electric power system.SOLUTION: An information processing apparatus comprises: an acquisition unit that acquires a first total of measured values of effective power of a plurality of consumers including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility in an electric power system; and an estimation unit that, on the basis of a first formula for estimating a second total of the effective power of the loads in the electric power system based on a measured value of the effective power of the first consumer in the electric power system and a first coefficient according to the first and third consumers, a second formula for estimating a third total of the effective power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities in the electric power system by using the amount of solar radiation, and the first total, estimates the third total.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an information processing device, an information processing method, and an information processing program. [Background technology]

[0002] In some cases, a so-called overloaded photovoltaic power generation facility is connected to a power grid, in which the capacity of the photovoltaic panels exceeds the capacity of the power conditioner.

[0003] There is known a technique for estimating the total output of photovoltaic power generation facilities, taking into consideration the fact that such overloaded photovoltaic power generation facilities are connected to a power grid (for example, Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2022-139991 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, in the invention described in Patent Document 1, the total output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities is estimated after determining whether each individual photovoltaic power generation facility is overloaded. With this method, the amount of calculation required for estimation increases as the number of photovoltaic power generation facilities increases.

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of such problems, and aims to provide an information processing device that can easily estimate the total active power of a solar power generation facility connected to a power grid. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] One invention to achieve the above object is an information processing device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires a first sum of measured values ​​of active power of multiple consumers in an electric power system, including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a solar power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the solar power generation facility; a first equation that estimates a second sum of active power of the load in the electric power system based on the measured values ​​of active power of the first consumer in the electric power system and a first coefficient corresponding to the first and third consumers; a second equation that estimates a third sum of active power of the solar power generation facility in the electric power system using solar radiation; and an estimation unit that estimates the third sum based on the first sum.

[0008] The information processing method also includes the steps of: an information processing device acquiring a first sum of measured values ​​of active power of multiple consumers in a power system, including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a solar power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the solar power generation facility; a first equation estimating a second sum of active power of the load in the power system based on the measured values ​​of active power of the first consumer in the power system and a first coefficient corresponding to the first and third consumers; a second equation estimating a third sum of active power of the solar power generation facility in the power system using solar radiation; and estimating the third sum based on the first sum.

[0009] The present invention also provides an information processing program that causes a computer to implement the following: an acquisition unit that acquires a first sum of measured values ​​of active power of multiple consumers in an electric power system, including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility; a first equation that estimates a second sum of active power of the load in the electric power system based on the measured values ​​of active power of the first consumer in the electric power system and a first coefficient corresponding to the first and third consumers; a second equation that estimates a third sum of active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility in the electric power system using solar radiation; and an estimation unit that estimates the third sum based on the first sum. Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the description of this specification. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide an information processing device that can easily estimate the total active power of a photovoltaic power generation facility connected to a power grid. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power system 1. [Figure 2] 1 is a diagram showing an example of equipment owned by each consumer C included in a power system 1. FIG. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of an information processing device 2 according to an embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating functional blocks of an information processing device 2 according to an embodiment. [Figure 5] 10 is a diagram illustrating the measured value of the amount of solar radiation r(t) acquired by the acquisition unit 210. FIG. [Figure 6] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating Equation 2 according to the embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating the total active power G when overloading is taken into consideration and when overloading is not taken into consideration. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the total estimated active power. [Figure 9] 10 is a flowchart illustrating a process performed by the information processing device 2 according to the embodiment until the information processing device 2 outputs the total F and the total G. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] == Implementation form == <<Power system 1>> 1 is a diagram showing an example of a power system 1 in which an information processing device 2 (described later) estimates the total active power of a photovoltaic power generation facility. The power system 1 includes a distribution substation 10, a distribution line 11, and a plurality of nodes N installed at predetermined positions on the distribution line 11. i (i is an integer) and sensor-equipped switches SW1 and SW2 installed at predetermined positions on the distribution line 11.

[0013] [Distribution Substation 10] The distribution substation 10 transforms the voltage supplied from a transmission line (not shown) and outputs a voltage of 6.6 kV to the distribution line 11.

[0014] [Power Distribution Line 11] The distribution lines 11 originate from the distribution substation 10 (sending node) and are connected in a radial pattern to the distribution substation 10. Only one distribution line 11 is shown in Fig. 1. The distribution line 11 is a three-phase AC distribution line.

[0015] [node] The nodes are provided on the power distribution line 11. In this embodiment, the nodes are aggregation units managed on a high-voltage power receiving point basis, including a pole transformer (not shown). The power output from the power distribution substation 10 to the power distribution line 11 is supplied to a plurality of consumers C via the nodes. Note that FIG. 1 shows an example in which three nodes N1 to N3 are provided. Note that the number of nodes is not limited to three.

[0016] [Switches with sensors SW1 and SW2] Each of the sensor-equipped switch SW1 and the sensor-equipped switch SW2 is a switch having a sensor capable of periodically measuring at least voltage, active power flow, and reactive power flow at the installation point.

[0017] The sensor-equipped switch SW1 and the sensor-equipped switch SW2 are similar. In this embodiment, the sensor-equipped switch SW1 measures measured values ​​at a measurement interval of one minute from 0:00 to 23:59 on one calendar day.

[0018] The measurement period of the sensor-equipped switch SW1 does not necessarily have to be one minute, and the measurement periods of all the sensor-equipped switches SW do not necessarily have to be the same.

[0019] [Classification of Consumer C] Each of the multiple consumers C has at least one of a load or a solar power generation facility. The multiple consumers C are classified into three consumers C1, C2, and C3 based on the purchase method of electricity generated by the solar power generation facility (PV (PhotoVoltaic)) depending on whether or not they have a power purchase contract with the electric power company and the content of the contract.

[0020] Specifically, consumer C1 is a consumer without PV grid connection who has not concluded a power purchase contract with the electric power company, consumer C2 is a consumer who has concluded a total purchase contract with the electric power company and is a consumer who is a total PV purchase customer, and consumer C3 is a consumer who has concluded a surplus purchase contract with the electric power company and is a consumer who is a surplus PV purchase customer.

[0021] FIG. 1 shows an example in which a customer C1 is located at a node N1, a customer C2 is located at a node N2, and a customer C3 is located at a node N3.

[0022] Furthermore, consumer C1 corresponds to a "first consumer." Consumer C2 corresponds to a "second consumer." Consumer C3 corresponds to a "third consumer." Furthermore, when there is no need to distinguish between consumers C1 to C3, they will simply be referred to as "consumer C."

[0023] In this embodiment, the electricity purchased is electricity generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility. Hereinafter, in this embodiment, the purchasing method for electricity generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility is referred to as a "PV purchasing method."

[0024] The non-PV grid-connected consumer C1 is a consumer that has a load that consumes power, but does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility that is the subject of a power purchase contract. The load consumes power supplied from the distribution line 11. In other words, the non-PV grid-connected consumer C1 purchases power supplied from the distribution line 11.

[0025] For example, an apartment building is connected to node N1 in Fig. 1 as a facility of consumer C1 that has a load consuming power and is not connected to a PV grid. Power output from distribution substation 10 to distribution line 11 is supplied to the apartment building via node N1.

[0026] PV full-amount purchase consumer C2 is a consumer who does not have a load that consumes electricity, but has a solar power generation facility that is subject to a full-amount purchase contract. Full-amount purchase consumer C2 sells all of the electricity generated by its own solar power generation facility.

[0027] For example, a solar power generation facility installed in a residential building is connected to node N2 in Figure 1 as the facility of consumer C2 who has a solar power generation facility and is a PV full-volume buyback program. This consumer C2 who is a PV full-volume buyback program sells all of the electricity generated by the solar power generation facility installed in the residential building.

[0028] A PV surplus purchase customer C3 has a load that consumes electricity and a solar power generation facility that is the subject of a surplus purchase contract. The load consumes electricity supplied from the distribution line 11 and at least a portion of the electricity generated by its own solar power generation facility.

[0029] That is, the PV surplus purchase consumer C3 purchases the power supplied from the power distribution line 11 and consumes at least a portion of the power generated by the solar power generation facility. Furthermore, the PV surplus purchase consumer C3 sells the power (surplus power) generated by the solar power generation facility excluding the power consumed.

[0030] For example, a general residence with a photovoltaic power generation facility is connected to node N3 in FIG. 1 as a facility of a PV surplus purchase customer C3 having a load that consumes power and a photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0031] The power output from the distribution substation 10 to the distribution line 11 is supplied to the load of the general residential house via the node N3. Furthermore, at least a portion of the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility is supplied to the load of the general residential house.

[0032] 2 is a diagram showing an example of facilities owned by consumers C1 to C3 included in the power system 1. Each facility owned by the consumers C1 to C3 is connected to a distribution line 11 via a pole transformer TR.

[0033] The facilities of the consumers C1 to C3 are connected to the pole transformer TR via service lines 13 and wiring W. A watt-hour meter SM (details of which will be described later) is installed in each of the consumers C1 to C3 included in the power system 1.

[0034] In the customer C1 without PV grid connection, a load R is connected to the distribution line 11 via a pole transformer TR. The customer C1 without PV grid connection does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0035] At a consumer C2 that purchases all PV power, a photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 is connected to a distribution line 11 via a pole-mounted transformer TR.

[0036] At a customer C3 that purchases surplus PV power, a load R and a photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 are connected to a distribution line 11 via a pole transformer TR.

[0037] The solar power generation equipment PV2 of consumer C3 is connected to the pole-mounted transformer TR via a power conditioner PCS.

[0038] In the following description, when there is no need to distinguish between the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 of the customer C2 and the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 of the customer C3, they will simply be referred to as "photovoltaic power generation facility PV."

[0039] [Power meter SM] The watt-hour meter SM is installed in each of the consumers C included in the power system 1. As the watt-hour meter SM, a so-called smart meter can be used.

[0040] The watt-hour meter SM is a watt-hour meter that can periodically measure the integrated value of the active power of consumer C. The amount obtained by dividing the measurement value measured by the watt-hour meter SM by the measurement period is the average value of the active power during the measurement period.

[0041] In this embodiment, the active power at each time within one measurement period is the average value of the active power within that measurement period. That is, the watthour meter SM is a watthour meter that can measure active power.

[0042] In this embodiment, the measurement period of all the watt-hour meters SM is 30 minutes. The watt-hour meters SM measure measurement values ​​at 30-minute measurement periods from 0:00 to 23:30 in one calendar day.

[0043] It should be noted that the measurement period of the watt-hour meters SM does not necessarily have to be 30 minutes, and the measurement periods of all the watt-hour meters SM do not necessarily have to be the same.

[0044] As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, each of the consumers C1 to C3 is provided with a watt-hour meter SM capable of measuring active power.

[0045] For consumer C1 without PV grid connection, one watt-hour meter SM is installed for the load R that consumes electricity. The watt-hour meter SM installed at consumer C1 without PV grid connection measures the amount of electricity used by load R at regular intervals.

[0046] Therefore, the measured value measured by the watt-hour meter SM installed in the consumer C1 without PV grid connection indicates only the active power of the load R.

[0047] Furthermore, for consumer C2 who is purchasing all of their PV power, one watt-hour meter SM is installed for their solar power generation facility PV1. The watt-hour meter SM installed at consumer C2 who is purchasing all of their PV power measures the amount of power generated by their own solar power generation facility PV1 at regular intervals.

[0048] Therefore, the measurement value of the watt-hour meter SM installed at consumer C2 who purchases all PV power indicates only the active power output of its own photovoltaic power generation facility PV1.

[0049] Furthermore, for the PV surplus purchase consumer C3, one watt-hour meter SM is installed for the load R that consumes electricity and the solar power generation facility PV2. The watt-hour meter SM installed at the PV surplus purchase consumer periodically measures the amount of electricity, which is the sum of the amount of electricity used by the load R and the amount of electricity generated by the consumer's own solar power generation facility PV2.

[0050] In other words, the measurement value of the watt-hour meter SM installed at consumer C3, which purchases surplus PV power, is a mixture of the active power of the load R and the active power generated by its own photovoltaic power generation facility PV2.

[0051] <Solar radiation meter 3> The actinometer 3 is an instrument that measures the amount of solar radiation. The specifications of the actinometer 3 are not particularly limited, and a general-purpose actinometer may be used. Solar radiation amount information indicating the amount of solar radiation measured by the actinometer 3 is transmitted to the information processing device 2 via a communication network (not shown).

[0052] <<Information processing device 2>> The information processing device 2 is a device that estimates the total active power of photovoltaic power generation facilities PV in the power system 1 to which a plurality of consumers including a consumer C1, a consumer C2, and a consumer C3 are connected.

[0053] The information processing device 2 is a device that estimates the total value of the active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV in the target section (corresponding to the "predetermined section") of the power system 1 using the measured values ​​from the watt-hour meters SM of each of the consumers C1 to C3 and the measured values ​​from the solar radiation meter 3.

[0054] The hardware configuration of the information processing device 2, various databases, and functional blocks of the information processing device 2 will be described below.

[0055] <Hardware configuration of information processing device 2> 3 is a diagram illustrating the hardware configuration of the information processing device 2 of this embodiment. The information processing device 2 is a computer having a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 200, a memory 201, a communication device 202, a storage device 203, an input device 204, an output device 205, and a recording medium reader 206.

[0056] [CPU200] The CPU 200 executes information processing programs stored in the memory 201 and the storage device 203 to realize various functions of the information processing device 2.

[0057] [Memory 201] The memory 201 is, for example, a RAM (Random-Access Memory) and is used as a temporary storage area for various programs, data, and the like.

[0058] [Communication device 202] The communication device 202 exchanges various programs and data with other computers via the communication network 5 .

[0059] [Storage device 203] The storage device 203 is a non-transitory (eg, non-volatile) storage device that stores various databases executed or processed by the CPU 200.

[0060] The storage device 203 stores various databases such as a system information DB 220, a facility information DB 221, a measurement value DB 222, and an estimated value DB 223. These will be described in detail later.

[0061] [Input device 204] The input device 204 is a device that accepts commands and data input by the user, and includes an input interface such as a keyboard and a touch sensor that detects a touch position on a touch panel display.

[0062] [Output Device 205] The output device 205 is, for example, a display or a printer.

[0063] [Recording medium reader 206] The recording medium reader 206 reads various data such as information processing programs recorded on a recording medium 4 such as a memory card, optical disk, or compact disk, and stores the data in the storage device 203 .

[0064] <Various databases> As described above, the storage device 203 stores various databases such as the system information DB 220, the facility information DB 221, the measurement value DB 222, and the estimated value DB 223. Each of these will be described below.

[0065] [Strain information DB220] The system information DB 220 is a database related to system information of the power system 1. The system information is information that represents the components of the power system 1 in the target section. The components of the power system 1 include, for example, the identifiers of each of the multiple nodes in the target section, the identifiers of the nodes to which each of the multiple nodes is connected, etc.

[0066] 1, the components of the power system 1 include the identifiers of the nodes N1 to N3, and also include the identifier of the node N1, which is the upstream node, as the connection destination of the node N2, for example.

[0067] [Equipment information DB221] The facility information DB221 is a database relating to facility information of each of the multiple consumers C included in the power system 1. The facility information includes information relating to the classification type of each of the multiple consumers C, the multiple loads R in the target section, and each of the multiple photovoltaic power generation facilities PV.

[0068] The classification type is a classification of the above-mentioned three types of consumers C (consumers C1 to C3). The information on each of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV includes the capacity and set power factor of each of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities PV.

[0069] [Measurement value DB222] The measurement value DB222 is a database that stores measurement values ​​measured at a predetermined interval by the electricity meter SM possessed by each of the multiple consumers C included in the power system 1, and measurement values ​​of the amount of solar radiation measured at each time by the solar radiation meter 3.

[0070] The measured value DB 222 stores, for example, the measured values ​​of the amount of solar radiation at the installation point of the solar radiation meter 3 for every 30 minutes over the past five years.

[0071] The data stored in the measurement value DB222 may be stored in advance in the storage device 203, or may be updated at any time by the CPU200 acquiring measurement values ​​from the electricity meter SM and the solar radiation meter 3 via the communication device 202 and writing the acquired measurement values ​​to the measurement value DB222.

[0072] [Estimated value DB223] The estimated value DB 223 is a database in which a total value F (described later) and a total value G (described later) estimated by the estimation unit 212 (described later) are recorded.

[0073] <Functional blocks of information processing device 2> 4 is a diagram showing functional blocks of the information processing device 2 according to the embodiment. The information processing device 2 includes acquisition units 210 and 211, an estimation unit 212, and an output unit 213. Each of these will be described below.

[0074] [Acquisition unit 210] The acquisition unit 210 acquires the measured value r(t) of the amount of solar radiation from the measurement value DB 222 (FIG. 3), where t is time. The acquisition unit 210 acquires the measured value r(t) of the amount of solar radiation for the target period of estimation.

[0075] 5 is a diagram illustrating the measured value of the amount of solar radiation r(t) acquired by the acquisition unit 210. In this example, the target period for estimation is set to be from 0:00 to 24:00 on a specific day (target day for estimation).

[0076] [Acquisition unit 211] The acquisition unit 211 acquires a total P(t) (corresponding to a "first total") of the measured values ​​of the active power of a plurality of consumers C including consumers C1, C2, and C3.

[0077] Specifically, the acquisition unit 211 first obtains the measured value p of each active power of the consumer C from the measured value DB 222. C As described above in detail, the active power of each consumer C is based on the measurement value of each consumer C's watt-hour meter SM.

[0078] The acquisition unit 211 then acquires the measured values ​​p of the active power of each of the multiple consumers C (consumers C1 to C3). C (t) to obtain the total P(t) of the measured active power values ​​of the multiple consumers C (consumers C1 to C3).

[0079] The acquisition unit 211 further acquires the measured value p of each active power of the consumer C1. C1 (t) to obtain the total active power measurements d(t) for consumer C1.

[0080] 1, only one of each of consumers C1 to C3 is shown, but in reality, multiple consumers are included in the power system 1. The sum d(t) is the sum of the measured active power values ​​of multiple consumers C1 included in the power system 1.

[0081] Here, the customer C1 is a customer that does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility. Therefore, the total d(t) is the total active power of the load R, and does not include the active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV.

[0082] [Estimation section 212] The estimation unit 212 estimates the total active power F of the loads R in the power system 1 (corresponding to the "second total") and the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV (corresponding to the "third total").

[0083] Specifically, the estimation unit 212 estimates the total F and the total G based on the total d(t) of the measurement values, the total P(t) of the measurement values, and the following formulas 1 and 2. Note that the total P(t) is the total of the measurement values ​​of the active power of all the consumers C (consumers C1 to C3) included in the power system 1, as described above. Formula 1 and Formula 2 will be explained below.

[0084] The following equation 1 is used to estimate the total active power F of the load R in the power system 1.

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[0085] Equation 1 is the measured value p of the active power of each load R of the consumer C1 of the power system 1. C1 , and a coefficient b (corresponding to the "first coefficient") according to consumers C1 and C3.

[0086] In Equation 1, d(t) is the measured value p of the active power of each load R of the consumer C1, as described above. C1 The customer C1 is a customer that does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0087] In other words, Equation 1 is the measured value p of the active power of the load R of the consumer C1 only. C1 This is a formula for estimating the total active power F of the load R in the power system 1 based on the sum of

[0088] Note that the measured value of the active power of the consumer C3 is a mixture of the active power of the load R and the active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility, and therefore the active power of only the load R is not directly measured. Therefore, the total F is also not directly measured. Therefore, in this embodiment, the total F is estimated using Equation 1.

[0089] The individual consumers C1 and C3 have different trends in the active power of the load R. However, when considering small-scale consumers such as residential consumers in particular, it can be assumed that the total active power of the load R of consumer C1 and the total active power of the load R of consumer C3 (a consumer that also has a solar power generation facility PV2) have similar trends.

[0090] Equation 1 is based on this assumption. In Equation 1, coefficient b is a coefficient according to the number of households, size, etc. of each of consumers C1 and C3.

[0091] For example, if the number of the multiple consumers C1 is 100 and the number of the multiple consumers C3 is 200, the coefficient b may be set to 3, and the total F may be estimated using Equation 1.

[0092] Next, we will explain Equation 2. Equation 2 below is an equation for estimating the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV in the power system 1 using the amount of solar radiation r(t). Also, Fig. 6 is a diagram for explaining Equation 2 of this embodiment.

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[0093] Equation 2 expresses the total G as a function of the amount of solar radiation r(t). As will be described in detail later, Equation 2 is an equation that reduces the rate of increase in the total G relative to an increase in the amount of solar radiation r(t) when the amount of solar radiation r(t) is greater than a predetermined threshold value compared to when the amount of solar radiation r(t) is equal to or less than the threshold value.

[0094] There is a strong correlation between the total active power G of a solar power generation facility PV and the amount of solar radiation r(t). Therefore, normally, the total G increases almost in proportion to the amount of solar radiation r(t).

[0095] However, when the amount of solar radiation r(t) becomes strong enough that the effects of overloading of consumer C's solar power generation equipment PV become apparent, the increase in total G in response to an increase in solar radiation r(t) becomes slower than usual.

[0096] Here, "overloading" refers to the case where a so-called overloaded solar power generation facility is connected, where the capacity of the solar panels exceeds the capacity of the power conditioner. Equation 2 expresses the total G taking into account the effect of such overloading.

[0097] The a on the right side of Equation 2 is a function of the amount of solar radiation r(t), and in this embodiment, the following function is used:

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[0098] In Equation 3, a0 is a constant that does not depend on the amount of solar radiation r(t). Specifically, a1(r(t)) is expressed by the following equation.

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[0099] In Figure 6, a0 and a1 in Equation 4 are shown as a function of the amount of solar radiation r(t). In Figure 6, the coefficient a0 is set to 1.0, and the threshold value r th is set to 0.7 and the reduction rate δ is set to 0.5.

[0100] According to Equation 3 and Equation 4, Equation 2 indicates that the solar radiation r(t) is greater than or equal to the threshold r th In the following case, the formula is used to calculate the total G by multiplying the solar radiation r(t) by a predetermined coefficient a0 (corresponding to the "second coefficient").

[0101] Furthermore, according to Equation 3 and Equation 4, Equation 2 indicates that the amount of solar radiation r(t) is less than the threshold value r th If it is greater than r(t), the total G is calculated by multiplying the amount of solar radiation r(t) by coefficient a1 (corresponding to the "third coefficient"), which becomes smaller as the amount of solar radiation r(t) increases.

[0102] In other words, Equation 2 is the solar radiation r(t) when the threshold r th In the following cases, it is assumed that there is no influence of overloading, and the total G is proportional to the amount of solar radiation r(t). Equation 2 also shows that when the amount of solar radiation r(t) is greater than the threshold value r th It is assumed that the effects of overloading begin to appear once this is exceeded, and the formula is such that the rate of increase in total G relative to solar radiation r(t) slows down.

[0103] The function form of a in Equation 2 is not limited to the examples shown in Equation 3 and Equation 4. The function form of a is determined by the amount of solar radiation r(t) relative to a predetermined threshold value r th Any function form is acceptable in which the rate of increase of total G relative to solar radiation r(t) slows down once it exceeds this value.

[0104] FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating the total active power G when overloading is taken into consideration and when overloading is not taken into consideration.

[0105] Note that "when overloading is taken into consideration" refers to the case where the total G is estimated using the above-mentioned formulas 2 to 4. Also, "when overloading is not taken into consideration" refers to the case where the total G is estimated using a0 instead of a1(r(t)) in formula 3. In other words, in this case, the total G is always proportional to the amount of solar radiation r(t).

[0106] As can be seen from FIG. 7, when overloading is not taken into consideration (dashed line), the total G has almost the same shape as the measured value of the solar radiation r(t) shown in FIG.

[0107] Furthermore, when overloading is taken into account (solid line), the total G decreases compared to when overloading is not taken into account (dashed line), especially around noon when the amount of solar radiation r(t) is high.

[0108] That is, in estimating the total G, by assuming the total G of active power using the functions shown in Equations 2 to 4, it is possible to take into account overloading of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV.

[0109] From Equations 1 and 2, the estimated value of the total active power of the power system 1 is expressed by the following equation:

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[0110] Equation 5 is an equation showing an estimated value corresponding to the total P(t) of the measured values ​​of active power of all consumers C included in the power system 1, which is acquired by the acquisition unit 211 described above.

[0111] In this embodiment, the estimation unit 212 determines the coefficient a0 and the threshold value r so as to minimize the deviation c between the estimated value of Equation 5 and the sum P(t) of the measured values. th , reduction rate δ (coefficient a0, threshold r th and the decrease rate δ are sometimes collectively referred to as "a") and b are calculated. The deviation c is expressed by the following formula.

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[0112] The second equal sign in Equation 6 uses Equation 1 and Equation 2. Here, time t is discretized, and deviation c is defined as the sum of squares of the difference between the estimated value and the measured value from a predetermined time (t=1) to the time (t=T) after a predetermined period has elapsed.

[0113] The estimation unit 212 solves the optimization problem expressed by the following equation to obtain optimized a and b: * and b * get.

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[0114] Coefficient b * is obtained, the estimation unit 212 calculates the coefficient b * By substituting into the coefficient b in Equation 1, the total active power F of the load R can be estimated.

[0115] Also, the coefficient a * is obtained, the estimation unit 212 calculates the coefficient a * By substituting the above into the coefficient a in Equations 2 to 4, the total active power F of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV can be estimated.

[0116] 8 is a diagram showing an example of the estimated total active power. In this diagram, the dashed line represents the total active power F of the load, the dotted line represents the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV (the sign is inverted), and the solid line represents the total active power of the power grid 1.

[0117] [Output section 213] The output unit 213 outputs the total values ​​F and G estimated by the estimation unit 212 to the output device 205 such as a display to present them to the user.

[0118] <<Processing up to outputting the total active power>> The process up to when the information processing device 2 outputs the total active power will be described using a flowchart. Fig. 9 is a flowchart illustrating the process up to when the information processing device 2 outputs the total F and the total G.

[0119] The following describes the process up to outputting the total F and the total G for a specific day (target day for estimation). This process includes steps S11 to S14.

[0120] First, in step S11, the acquisition unit 210 acquires a measurement value of the amount of solar radiation r(t) on the target day of estimation. Fig. 5 shows an example of the measurement value of the amount of solar radiation r(t) acquired here.

[0121] The measured value of solar radiation r(t) has a strong correlation with the total G under conditions where the effects of overloading of photovoltaic power generation equipment PV do not appear, and is roughly proportional to the total G.

[0122] Next, in step S12, the acquisition unit 211 acquires the sum P(t) of the measured values ​​of active power in the power system 1. The sum P(t) is the sum of the measured values ​​of active power of all the consumers C (consumers C1 to C3) included in the power system 1, as described above.

[0123] Next, in step S13, the estimation unit 212 estimates the total active power F of the load R and the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0124] The total active power F of the load R is the total active power of the load R of the consumers C1 and C3 that have the load R. Also, the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facilities is the total active power of the load R of the consumers C2 and C3 that have the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV.

[0125] In this step, the estimation unit 212 assumes the functions of Equation 1 and Equation 2 as the total F and the total G, respectively, and solves the optimization problem of Equation 7. In this way, the estimation unit 212 estimates the total F and the total G. Fig. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the estimated total active power.

[0126] Finally, in step 14, the output unit 213 outputs the estimated sums F and G to the output device 205.

[0127] According to the procedure described above, the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1 can be easily estimated.

[0128] == Variations == In the embodiment, the total active power d(t) of the consumer C1 (a consumer without a solar power generation facility) is used in Equation 1. In Equation 1, it is assumed that the total active power of the load R of the consumer C1 and the total active power of the load R of the consumer C3 have similar trends.

[0129] That is, in Equation 1, it is assumed that the total active power of the loads R that are similar to each other in the consumers C1 and C3 has the same tendency.

[0130] However, when the consumer C1 includes consumers such as ordinary homes, commercial facilities, and offices, the active power trends of the load R of these consumers C1 may differ. Therefore, it may be assumed that the total active power trend of the load R is not uniform but multiple.

[0131] Specifically, the consumer C1 is classified into multiple clusters according to the trend of the active power of the load R, and the total measured value d of the active power of the load R for each cluster is calculated. i (t) may be obtained, where "i" is the number assigned to the cluster, and the number of clusters is "N d "

[0132] For example, let us classify consumer C1 into three clusters (Nd It may be possible to classify them into one of the following three categories:

[0133] And the total obtained d i (t) (i=1~N d ) and the total active power F of the load R in the power system 1 can be expressed by the following equation:

number

[0134] In Equation 8, coefficient b i is a coefficient according to the number of households, size, etc. of consumers C1 and C3 belonging to cluster i.

[0135] For example, if the number of ordinary residences among the multiple consumers C1 is 100 and the number of ordinary residences among the multiple consumers C3 is 200, the coefficient b1 may be set to 3. Also, if the number of commercial facilities among the multiple consumers C1 is 50 and the number of ordinary residences among the multiple consumers C3 is 150, the coefficient b2 may be set to 4.

[0136] In addition, if the number of businesses among the multiple consumers C1 is 10 and the number of residential homes among the multiple consumers C3 is 40, the coefficient b3 may be set to 5. i and Equation 8 may be used to estimate the sum F.

[0137] ==Summary== As described above, the information processing device 2 of the embodiment includes an acquisition unit 210 that acquires a total P of measured active power values ​​of multiple consumers C in the power system 1, including a consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a consumer C3 having a load and a photovoltaic power generation facility; an estimation unit 212 that estimates the total G based on Formula 1 that estimates the total active power F of the loads in the power system 1 based on the measured active power value of consumer C1 in the power system 1 and a coefficient b corresponding to consumers C1 and C3; Formula 2 that estimates the total G of active power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities in the power system 1 using solar radiation r; and the total P.

[0138] According to this configuration, the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1 are treated statistically. Therefore, according to this configuration, when estimating the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1, it is not necessary to determine whether or not each photovoltaic power generation facility is overloaded. Therefore, it is possible to easily estimate the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1.

[0139] In the information processing device 2, the equation 2 is expressed as follows: th If the solar radiation r is greater than the threshold r th This is an equation that reduces the rate of increase in the total G with respect to an increase in the amount of solar radiation r compared to the following case: With this configuration, it is possible to easily estimate the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation equipment connected to the power grid 1 by using a simple formula.

[0140] In the information processing device 2, the equation 2 is expressed as follows: th In the following case, the formula is to calculate the total G by multiplying the solar radiation amount r by the predetermined coefficient a0, and the solar radiation amount r is equal to the threshold value r th When the solar radiation amount r is larger, the total G is calculated by multiplying the solar radiation amount by a coefficient a1, which decreases as the solar radiation amount r increases. With this configuration, by using the simple formulas 1 to 4, it becomes possible to more easily estimate the total active power G of the solar power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1.

[0141] In the information processing device, the estimation unit 212 further estimates the total active power F of the loads using Formula 1, Formula 2, and the measurement value P. With this configuration, when there is a consumer such as consumer C3 that has a load R and a photovoltaic power generation facility, it is possible to estimate separately the total active power F of the load R in the power system 1 and the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0142] The information processing method of the embodiment includes a step in which an information processing device 2 acquires a total P of measured active power values ​​of multiple consumers C in a power system 1, including a consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a solar power generation facility, and a consumer C3 having a load and a solar power generation facility; and a step in which an information processing device 2 estimates a total F of active power of the loads in the power system 1 based on the measured active power value of consumer C1 in the power system 1 and a coefficient b corresponding to consumers C1 and C3, a step in which an information processing device 2 estimates a total G of active power of the solar power generation facilities in the power system 1 using solar radiation r, and the total P.

[0143] According to this method, the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1 are treated statistically. Therefore, according to this configuration, when estimating the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1, it is not necessary to determine whether or not each photovoltaic power generation facility is overloaded. Therefore, it is possible to easily estimate the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1.

[0144] The information processing program of the embodiment causes a computer to realize an acquisition unit 210 that acquires a total P of measured active power values ​​of multiple consumers C in a power system 1, including a consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a consumer C3 having a load and a photovoltaic power generation facility, and an estimation unit 212 that estimates the total G based on Formula 1 that estimates the total F of the active power of the loads in the power system 1 based on the measured active power value of consumer C1 in the power system 1 and a coefficient b corresponding to consumers C1 and C3, Formula 2 that estimates the total G of the active power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities in the power system 1 using solar radiation r, and the total P.

[0145] According to this program, the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1 are statistically treated. Therefore, according to this configuration, when estimating the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1, it is not necessary to determine whether or not each photovoltaic power generation facility is overloaded. Therefore, it becomes possible to easily estimate the total active power G of the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power grid 1. [Explanation of symbols]

[0146] power system 1 Distribution Substation 10 Power Lines 11 Drop line 13 Information processing device 2 Solar radiation meter 3 CPU 200 Memory 201 Communication Device 202 Storage device 203 Input Device 204 Output Device 205 Recording medium reader 206 Lineage information DB 220 Equipment information DB 221 Measurement DB 222 Estimated value DB 223 Acquisition Department 210 Acquisition Department 211 Estimation part 212 Output section 213 Sensor-equipped switches SW1, SW2 Recording medium 4 Communication Network 5

Claims

1. an acquisition unit that acquires a first sum of measured values ​​of active power of a plurality of consumers in a power system, the first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility; a first equation for estimating a second sum of active power of the load in the power system based on a measured value of active power of the first consumer in the power system and a first coefficient according to the first and third consumers; a second equation for estimating a third sum of active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility in the power system using an amount of solar radiation; and an estimation unit for estimating the third sum based on the first sum. Information processing device.

2. 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, The second formula is a formula for reducing the rate of increase of the third total with respect to an increase in the amount of solar radiation when the amount of solar radiation is greater than a predetermined threshold value, compared to when the amount of solar radiation is equal to or less than the threshold value. Information processing device.

3. 3. The information processing device according to claim 2, The second formula is: a formula for calculating the third sum by multiplying a predetermined second coefficient by the amount of solar radiation when the amount of solar radiation is equal to or less than the threshold value; When the amount of solar radiation is greater than the threshold, the third total is calculated by multiplying the amount of solar radiation by a third coefficient, which decreases as the amount of solar radiation increases. Information processing device.

4. The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, The estimation unit further estimating the second total active power of the load using the first equation, the second equation, and the measurement. Information processing device.

5. The information processing device obtaining a first sum of measurements of active power of a plurality of consumers in an electric power system, the first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility; a first equation for estimating a second sum of active power of the loads in the power system based on a measured value of active power of the first consumer in the power system and a first coefficient according to the first and third consumers; a second equation for estimating a third sum of active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility in the power system using solar radiation; and a step of estimating the third sum based on the first sum. Information processing methods.

6. On the computer, an acquisition unit that acquires a first sum of measured values ​​of active power of a plurality of consumers in a power system, the first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility; a first equation for estimating a second total of active power of the load in the power system based on a measured value of active power of the first consumer in the power system and a first coefficient according to the first and third consumers; a second equation for estimating a third total of active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility in the power system using solar radiation; and an estimation unit for estimating the third total based on the first total. Information processing program.

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