Information processing apparatus, information processing system, information processing method, and program

Abstract

To provide an information processor for properly supporting the formulation of the procurement plan of a consumer.SOLUTION: An information processing apparatus 1 according to the present disclosure includes an acquisition unit 11 that acquires consumer requirement information indicating a requirement of a consumer regarding an environmental value, and a planning unit 15 that creates a portfolio indicating a combination of procurement methods in procurement of the environmental value so as to satisfy a requirement indicated by the consumer requirement information by using power consumption prediction information indicating a predicted value of power consumption of the consumer, a price prediction curve indicating a predicted value of a price required for procurement of the environmental value by each of a plurality of procurement methods of the environmental value, and the consumer requirement information, wherein at least one of the plurality of procurement methods has a plurality of price prediction curves.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an information processing device, an information processing system, an information processing method, and a program that support the formulation of a procurement plan for environmental value. [Background technology]

[0002] In order to meet the demand for carbon neutrality (CN), there is an increasing need for electricity consumers (hereinafter referred to as "consumers") to procure environmental value. There are several ways to procure environmental value, such as procuring electricity generated using renewable energy (hereinafter referred to as "renewable energy") and procuring environmental value certificates that certify environmental value. Furthermore, there are several ways to procure electricity generated by renewable energy (hereinafter referred to as "renewable energy electricity"), such as self-generation, power purchase agreements (PPAs), and purchasing renewable energy from retail electricity providers, and there are also several ways to procure certificates.

[0003] In addition, CN efforts are evaluated under various CN frameworks (reporting systems), such as TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures), CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project), SBT (Science Based Targets), and RE100 (Renewable Energy 100%), but the procurement methods that can be used vary depending on the reporting system.

[0004] Given the above, consumers must consider many factors when selecting appropriate procurement methods and determining appropriate procurement quantities for each method in order to meet their environmental value requirements, and formulating appropriate procurement plans on their own places a heavy burden on consumers.

[0005] Patent Document 1 discloses that a renewable energy management device that manages renewable energy for multiple users determines a procurement method with a low unit price based on requirements related to environmental value for each user. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2023-128870 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0007] The renewable energy management device described in Patent Document 1 determines a procurement method using a single unit price determined in advance for each procurement method. However, the unit price of environmental value certificates and the unit price of renewable energy electricity purchased from retail electricity suppliers may fluctuate. For this reason, the technology described in Patent Document 1 may result in an inappropriate selection of a procurement method, and may not be able to appropriately support the formulation of a consumer's procurement plan.

[0008] The present disclosure has been made in consideration of the above, and aims to provide an information processing device that can appropriately support the formulation of procurement plans for consumers. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems and achieve the object, an information processing device according to the present disclosure includes an acquisition unit that acquires consumer request information that indicates consumer requests regarding environmental value, and a formulation unit that uses power consumption prediction information that indicates predicted values ​​of consumer power consumption, price prediction curves that indicate predicted values ​​of prices required to procure environmental value for each of multiple procurement methods of environmental value, and the consumer request information to create a portfolio that indicates a combination of procurement methods for procuring environmental value so as to satisfy the requests indicated by the consumer request information. At least one of the multiple procurement methods has multiple price prediction curves. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] The information processing device of the present disclosure has the effect of being able to appropriately support the formulation of procurement plans for customers. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of an information processing device according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] 1 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure in the information processing device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a price prediction curve according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of a plurality of procurement methods according to the first embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining an outline of a portfolio determination according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] Diagram to explain CVaR [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a display example of a portfolio according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a display example of a plurality of portfolios with different objective functions according to the first embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a display example of a plurality of portfolios with different constraint conditions according to the first embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a computer system that realizes an information processing device according to a first embodiment. [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of an information processing device according to a second embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a configuration example of an information processing system according to a second embodiment; [Figure 13] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of an information processing device according to a third embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] An information processing device, an information processing system, an information processing method, and a program according to embodiments will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0013] Embodiment 1 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of an information processing device 1 according to a first embodiment. The information processing device 1 of this embodiment supports the formulation of a consumer's procurement plan for environmental value. The consumer is a consumer that consumes at least electricity, and is, for example, a large-scale consumer that manages facilities such as buildings, factories, and offices, but is not limited to these.

[0014] With the increasing demand for CN in recent years, electricity consumers are facing the challenge of how to procure the environmental value of the electricity they consume. There are several methods for procuring environmental value, such as procuring renewable energy electricity, obtaining environmental value certificates (hereinafter simply referred to as certificates), and purchasing renewable energy electricity from retail electricity suppliers. Note that purchasing renewable energy electricity from retail electricity suppliers may involve purchasing electricity with a 100% renewable energy ratio, which is the proportion of renewable energy electricity in the electricity they supply, or purchasing electricity with a renewable energy ratio greater than 0% but less than 100%, such as a 50% renewable energy ratio. In other words, purchasing renewable energy electricity from retail electricity suppliers may involve purchasing electricity with a guaranteed renewable energy ratio. Hereinafter, environmental value procurement methods will also be referred to simply as procurement methods.

[0015] The procurement of renewable energy electricity can be further subdivided into procurement through self-generation, procurement through on-site PPA, and procurement through off-site PPA. Self-generation refers to the consumer installing renewable energy power generation equipment such as solar power generation equipment or wind power generation equipment themselves and generating electricity using that renewable energy power generation equipment. A PPA is a long-term purchase contract for electricity from renewable energy power generation equipment installed by a PPA operator, and in an on-site PPA, the renewable energy equipment is installed on the consumer's premises, while in an off-site PPA, the renewable energy equipment is installed outside the consumer's premises.

[0016] There are several types of certificates, including non-fossil certificates, green power certificates, and J-Credits, and they are traded in different markets. Non-fossil certificates are also categorized into FIT (Feed-In Tariff: feed-in tariff) non-fossil certificates (renewable energy designated), non-FIT non-fossil certificates (renewable energy designated), and non-FIT non-fossil certificates (no renewable energy designation). Even within FIT non-fossil certificates and non-FIT non-fossil certificates, there are differences in whether tracking information (information indicating the origin of the electricity, such as attribute information of the power generation facility) is attached.

[0017] Regarding the purchase of renewable energy power from a retail electricity supplier, the renewable energy power menu offered by the retail electricity supplier may not be limited to one type, but may include multiple types. Furthermore, there are multiple reporting systems for evaluating CN, such as TCFD, CDP, SBT, and RE100, and different certificates are adopted depending on the reporting system. Furthermore, the unit price (e.g., procurement price per kWh) for each procurement method may also fluctuate. Therefore, selecting a certificate to procure and creating a procurement plan taking into account predicted procurement costs, risks, etc., depending on the reporting system to which the consumer subscribes or is requested, places a significant burden on the consumer. Therefore, the information processing device 1 of this embodiment creates a portfolio that indicates the ratio of the procurement amount or procurement cost for each procurement method (hereinafter also referred to as the procurement method ratio) in the procurement amount of environmental value appropriate for the consumer based on the predicted unit prices of multiple procurement methods (suppliers) in response to the consumer's request for environmental value. This allows the information processing device 1 of this embodiment to reduce the burden on the consumer. Furthermore, as will be described later, the information processing device 1 of this embodiment creates a portfolio using multiple price curves as unit price forecast curves for each procurement method. This allows a more appropriate portfolio to be created than when one unit price is set for each procurement method, and can appropriately support the formulation of consumer procurement plans.

[0018] As described above, the information processing device 1 of this embodiment is an environmental value portfolio formulation device that creates a portfolio of environmental value procurement. As shown in FIG. 1 , the information processing device 1 of this embodiment includes an acquisition unit 11, an information storage unit 12, a demand forecasting unit 13, a price forecasting unit 14, a formulation unit 15, and a presentation unit 16. The acquisition unit 11 acquires various information used in processing in the information processing device 1 and stores the acquired information in the information storage unit 12. For example, the acquisition unit 11 acquires common information, which is information common to all consumers, and consumer information, which is information about consumers, and stores the acquired common information and consumer information in the information storage unit 12. The common information includes, for example, renewable energy power generation facility information regarding renewable energy power generation facilities newly installed by consumers, renewable energy menu information regarding renewable energy menus offered by electricity retailers, certificate information regarding certificates, and PPA information regarding PPAs. The consumer information includes owned facility information regarding renewable energy power generation facilities already owned by consumers, power consumption record information indicating the consumer's actual power consumption, and consumer request information indicating the consumer's requests regarding environmental value.

[0019] The renewable energy power generation facility information includes, for example, information indicating the power generation amount, installation costs, maintenance costs, etc. when a consumer installs new renewable energy power generation facility. The information indicating the power generation amount may be the power generation capacity or may be the average value of the estimated power generation amount. Multiple types and power generation capacities of renewable energy power generation facilities to be introduced may be assumed, and the renewable energy power generation facility information may include installation costs and maintenance costs according to the type of renewable energy power generation facility, power generation capacity, etc. The renewable energy menu information includes, for example, the provider of the renewable energy menu, the area where it can be provided, the amount of electricity that can be provided, and fees. The certificate information includes, for example, information indicating the transaction method, actual price values, and correspondence with the reporting system for each type of certificate. The PPA information includes, for example, information such as the contract period, contract price, and amount of electricity purchased.

[0020] The consumer request information is information indicating the consumer's request regarding environmental value. The consumer request information includes, for example, the renewable energy ratio (the ratio of renewable energy power in the electricity consumed by the consumer), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, carbon dioxide reduction amount, carbon dioxide emission coefficient, and other required values ​​for indicators regarding environmental value, as well as system information indicating a reporting system (a reporting system corresponding to the consumer). For example, if the renewable energy ratio is set to 50% or more, the required value for the indicator regarding environmental value may be 50%, which is the minimum renewable energy ratio that must be complied with, or may be a range of 50% or more. If the required value for the indicator regarding environmental value is expressed as the amount of carbon dioxide emission reduction, the consumer request information also includes a baseline value before reduction.

[0021] The owned facility information includes, for example, information indicating the power generation amount and maintenance costs of renewable energy power generation facilities owned by the consumer. The information indicating the power generation amount may be the power generation capacity or the average value of the actually measured power generation amount. The demand request information may also include a planning period, which is a period for considering a procurement plan, a unit period (a fixed period such as six months or one year) for performing an evaluation within the planning period that is shorter than the planning period, costs for creating a portfolio (described later), facility-related constraints, etc. In this embodiment, it is mainly assumed that the system supports the formulation of long-term procurement plans of consumers, and the planning period is, for example, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 25 years, etc., but is not limited to these. Furthermore, for example, the constraint may set an upper limit on costs per unit period, or an upper limit on the roof area for installing solar panels when installing solar power generation facilities as renewable energy power generation facilities. The constraint is not limited to these examples.

[0022] The acquiring unit 11 may acquire information by, for example, accepting input from a manager, person in charge, or the like at the consumer, or may acquire information by receiving information from a terminal device 2 that can be operated by a manager, person in charge, or the like at the consumer. The terminal device 2 is a computer system, and may be a personal computer, tablet, smartphone, or the like. The acquiring unit 11 may acquire part of the information by accepting input from a manager, person in charge, or the like, and acquire the remaining part by receiving it from the terminal device 2. The common information may be stored in the information storage unit 12 by a business operator other than the consumer that provides a service using the information processing device 1 inputting the common information to the information storage unit 12 in advance or by transmitting it from a terminal device (not shown) managed by the business operator. The acquiring unit 11 may acquire the power consumption of the consumer measured by a measuring device such as a smart meter, which is a power metering device, from the measuring device as actual power consumption information.

[0023] The information storage unit 12 stores various types of information used for processing in the information processing device 1, information created by the information processing device 1, etc. For example, the information storage unit 12 stores common information, consumer information, power consumption forecast information which is the forecast result by the demand forecasting unit 13, a price forecast curve created by the price forecasting unit 14, a portfolio created by the formulation unit 15, etc.

[0024] The demand forecasting unit 13 uses the actual power consumption information stored in the information storage unit 12 to forecast the power consumption of the consumer for the planning period included in the consumer request information stored in the information storage unit 12, and stores the forecast result as power consumption forecast information in the information storage unit 12. The power consumption forecast information is information that indicates the forecast value of the power consumption of the consumer.

[0025] The demand forecasting unit 13 predicts the power consumption for the planned period using, for example, a statistical method using actual power consumption information. However, the prediction may also be performed using machine learning or any other method. For example, the demand forecasting unit 13 may use the average power consumption per unit period as the predicted power consumption value, or may predict the power consumption by extrapolation using the average power consumption per unit period in the past. Alternatively, the acquiring unit 11 may acquire a future facility plan of a consumer, and the demand forecasting unit 13 may predict the power consumption of the consumer based on the facility plan. While FIG. 1 illustrates an example in which the information processing device 1 predicts the power consumption of a consumer, this is not limiting. The acquiring unit 11 may acquire a forecast result of the power consumption of the consumer predicted by another device (not shown) or a forecast result of the power consumption predicted manually, and store the forecast information in the information storage unit 12. In this case, the information processing device 1 does not need to include the demand forecasting unit 13. The other device that predicts the power consumption of the consumer may be an energy management device that manages the energy of the consumer.

[0026] The price prediction unit 14 predicts the price (unit price) of environmental value over the planning period for each procurement method, creates multiple price prediction curves showing the predicted results, and stores the created price prediction curves in the information storage unit 12. That is, the price prediction unit 14 creates price prediction curves corresponding to each of multiple scenarios. The price prediction curves indicate predicted values ​​for the prices required to procure environmental value. Note that, while an example of creating multiple price prediction curves for each procurement method will be described below, this is not limiting. It is sufficient to create multiple price prediction curves for at least one of the multiple procurement methods, and one price prediction curve may be created for some of the procurement methods. Details of the method of creating price prediction curves will be described later. FIG. 1 illustrates an example in which the information processing device 1 creates a price prediction curve. However, this is not limiting. A price prediction curve created by another device (not shown) or manually may be acquired by the acquisition unit 11 and stored in the information storage unit 12. In this case, the information processing device 1 does not need to include the price prediction unit 14. Furthermore, the information processing device 1 may create price prediction curves for some of the procurement methods, and the acquisition unit 11 may acquire price prediction curves for the remaining procurement methods.

[0027] The formulating unit 15 uses the power consumption prediction information, the price prediction curves for each of the multiple procurement methods of environmental value, and the consumer request information to create a portfolio indicating a combination of procurement methods for procuring environmental value so as to satisfy the consumer's requirements for environmental value. Specifically, the formulating unit 15 uses the common information, consumer information, power consumption prediction information, and price prediction curves stored in the information storage unit 12 to create a portfolio indicating the ratio of the procurement amount for each procurement method to the total procurement amount of environmental value that the consumer should procure. Alternatively, the formulating unit 15 may create a portfolio indicating the ratio of the procurement cost for each procurement method to the total cost of procuring the total procurement amount of environmental value that the consumer should procure. The formulating unit 15 stores the created portfolio in the information storage unit 12. The formulating unit 15 creates the portfolio by optimizing the procurement amount for each procurement method, for example, using an objective function including at least one of information indicating cost (procurement cost) and information (index) indicating risk. The optimization method may be, for example, an iterative method, a steepest descent method, a mathematical optimization method, a heuristic or metaheuristic method, or the like, but is not limited to these. The formulation unit 15 may create multiple portfolios. The method for creating a portfolio will be described in detail later.

[0028] The presentation unit 16 presents the portfolio stored in the information storage unit 12. For example, the presentation unit 16 may present the portfolio to the consumer by displaying it, or may present the portfolio by transmitting the portfolio, i.e., by transmitting display information for displaying the portfolio to the terminal device 2, or may present the portfolio by both of these methods. Upon receiving the portfolio, the terminal device 2 displays the received portfolio. Alternatively, the portfolio may be presented by providing a display device such as a monitor or display (not shown) separately from the information processing device 1, and the presentation unit 16 outputting display information for displaying the portfolio to the display device. The display device displays the portfolio based on the display information.

[0029] Next, the operation of this embodiment will be described. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure in the information processing device 1 of this embodiment. It is assumed that the common information is acquired by the acquisition unit 11 and stored in the information storage unit 12 before the processing shown in FIG. 2 is performed. As shown in FIG. 2, the information processing device 1 acquires consumer information (step S1). In detail, the acquisition unit 11 acquires the consumer information and stores it in the information storage unit 12.

[0030] The information processing device 1 predicts the power demand, i.e., the power consumption (step S2). In detail, the demand prediction unit 13 predicts the power consumption of the consumer during the planning period using the actual power consumption information, and stores the prediction result as power consumption prediction information in the information storage unit 12. Note that, as described above, the information processing device 1 may acquire the power consumption prediction information by receiving it from another device or by accepting input, instead of predicting the power consumption.

[0031] The information processing device 1 creates a price prediction curve (step S3). In detail, the price prediction unit 14 predicts the unit price of environmental value for each procurement method over the planning period, creates a plurality of price prediction curves showing the predicted results, and stores the created price prediction curves in the information storage unit 12. As described above, instead of creating a price prediction curve, the information processing device 1 may acquire a price prediction curve by receiving it from another device or by accepting input.

[0032] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a price prediction curve according to this embodiment. In FIG. 3, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents unit price (unit price for procuring environmental value). In the case of procuring a certificate, the price prediction curve for unit price is a price prediction curve for the transaction price (unit price). In the case of procuring environmental value through the introduction of renewable energy power generation facilities or PPA, a price prediction curve for unit price is created by predicting installation costs, maintenance costs, contract prices, etc., and dividing the predicted price by the generated power (the amount of power calculated from the generated power). The price prediction unit 14 creates multiple price prediction curves for each procurement method, each showing the time change in unit price over the planning period, as shown in FIG. 3.

[0033] For example, the price prediction unit 14 may create a price prediction curve assuming that prices will decrease for installation and maintenance costs of renewable energy power generation facilities, taking into account factors such as technological improvements and cost reductions. Alternatively, the price prediction unit 14 may create multiple price prediction curves using multiple prediction models with different rates of price decrease. Regarding the transaction price (unit price) of a certificate, the price prediction unit 14 may calculate an approximate formula showing the relationship between the impact information and the transaction price for each type of certificate using past transaction prices and impact information that affects the transaction price, and create multiple price prediction curves with different impact information. Alternatively, a trained model for inferring transaction prices from impact information may be generated by machine learning, and the price prediction unit 14 may create multiple price prediction curves by inputting different impact information into the trained model. Alternatively, the price prediction unit 14 may create multiple price prediction curves by generating random numbers using a probability distribution such as that used in Monte Carlo simulation. If prices are expected to remain constant, the price prediction curve may be a constant value, i.e., a straight line. As described above, it is sufficient to create multiple price prediction curves for at least some procurement methods, and a single price prediction curve may be created for some procurement methods. While creating a price prediction curve using past performance or a probability distribution can increase user satisfaction, the method for creating a price prediction curve is not limited to these and may be any method, and is not limited to the above-mentioned examples. However, for procurement methods with large price fluctuations, it is desirable to create multiple price prediction curves so that the difference between them is large.

[0034] Returning to the explanation of Fig. 2, the information processing device 1 creates a portfolio of environmental value procurement (step S4). In detail, the formulation unit 15 uses the common information, consumer information, power consumption prediction information, and price prediction curve to create a portfolio indicating the ratio of procurement methods in the total procurement amount of environmental value that consumers should procure, and stores the created portfolio in the information storage unit 12.

[0035] Here, a method for creating a portfolio of environmental value procurement according to this embodiment will be described. As described above, there are multiple methods for procuring environmental value. Furthermore, the costs borne by consumers vary depending on the procurement method, and the range of fluctuation in the predicted costs also varies. For this reason, the information processing device 1 sets multiple procurement methods as candidate procurement methods to be proposed to consumers, and creates a portfolio by optimizing the procurement amounts of the set multiple procurement methods using techniques such as iterative methods, steepest descent methods, mathematical optimization techniques, heuristic or metaheuristic techniques, etc.

[0036] FIG. 4 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of multiple procurement methods according to the present embodiment. In the example illustrated in FIG. 4, the procurement methods include six types: solar power self-installation (newly installing a solar power generation facility, which is an example of a renewable energy power generation facility), on-site PPA, off-site PPA, FIT non-fossil fuel certificate (procurement of FIT non-fossil fuel certificate), J-Credit (exchange) (procurement of J-Credit in the market), and power company renewable energy plan (purchasing renewable energy electricity from a retail electricity supplier). In the following figures, J-Credit (exchange) will be abbreviated as J-Credit (exchange) or J-Credit. Furthermore, since J-Credit (exchange) has multiple menus (multiple types of certificates), the procurement methods are further subdivided by certificate type. Note that FIG. 4 is an example, and the multiple procurement methods set in the information processing device 1 may include procurement methods other than those illustrated in FIG. 4, or may not include some of the procurement methods illustrated in FIG. 4. For example, bilateral trading of J-Credit may be included. The multiple procurement methods of this embodiment include, for example, at least one of power generation using renewable energy power generation facilities owned by the consumer itself, procurement through PPA, procurement of environmental value certificates, and purchasing electricity generated using renewable energy from a retail electricity supplier.

[0037] Figure 4 shows the unit cost for each procurement method on a graph with time on the horizontal axis. As shown in Figure 4, unit costs vary depending on the procurement method, and the way the unit cost changes over time also varies depending on the procurement method. For example, with self-installed solar power generation, the unit cost is high due to installation costs at the time of installation of the solar power generation equipment, but the unit cost decreases thereafter. In contrast, the unit cost for on-site PPAs and off-site PPAs is constant. Furthermore, the bidding period differs between FIT Non-Fossil Certificates and J-Credits. Furthermore, while on-site PPAs have a lower unit cost than off-site PPAs, they cannot be implemented unless a roof or other suitable surface for installing solar panels is secured. Note that Figure 4 provides an overview of each procurement method as an image, and the unit cost and bidding timing do not represent actual values. As such, each procurement method has its own unique characteristics.

[0038] Furthermore, price predictions may differ from actual prices. FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining an overview of portfolio determination in this embodiment. In portfolio #1 shown in FIG. 5, the entire amount of environmental value to be procured is procured using FIT non-fossil certificates, while portfolio #2 procures the amount of environmental value to be procured in a distributed manner using multiple procurement methods. In portfolio #1, the entire amount of environmental value to be procured is procured using a single procurement method, so a misprediction of price directly affects the procurement cost. In other words, the difference between the market forecast unit price (price prediction curve) and the actual market unit price significantly affects the difference between the planned procurement cost and the actual procurement cost. In contrast, in portfolio #2, the amount of environmental value to be procured is procured in a distributed manner using multiple procurement methods, so the impact of mispredictions is reduced. In other words, by combining multiple procurement methods, portfolio #2 can hedge the risk of unit price increases, i.e., the risk that actual costs will exceed planned procurement costs. As such, generally, combining multiple procurement methods is more effective for risk avoidance than using a single procurement method. For this reason, for example, in detail, a portfolio is created by determining an optimal combination of procurement amounts for each procurement method based on an objective function. The objective function includes, for example, at least one of information indicating the procurement cost of environmental value and information indicating the risk associated with procuring environmental value.

[0039] Specifically, for example, the formulation unit 15 calculates the required amount of environmental value based on the power consumption prediction information and the required value of the index related to environmental value. When the required value of the index related to environmental value is expressed as a renewable energy ratio, the formulation unit 15 calculates the required amount of environmental value for each unit period by multiplying the predicted value of power consumption indicated by the power consumption prediction information by the renewable energy ratio, and determines a constraint condition for optimization based on the required amount of environmental value for each unit period. For example, the formulation unit 15 may set a constraint condition that the required amount of environmental value and the total amount of procurement for each procurement method match for each unit period. Note that, for example, the unit period is set as a period during which the required value of the index related to environmental value is required to be met. For example, if the required value of the renewable energy ratio is required to be achieved on an annual basis, the unit period is set to one year. The unit period is not limited to this example. Furthermore, since the type of applicable certificate varies depending on the reporting system indicated by the system information included in the consumer request information, the formulation unit 15 may also set the procurement method (type of certificate) as a constraint condition depending on the reporting system. This allows the formulation unit 15 to create a portfolio that conforms to the reporting system corresponding to the consumer. If the reporting system is not specified in the consumer request information, constraints based on the reporting system do not need to be set. Note that, if the required value of the index related to environmental value is expressed as the amount of carbon dioxide emissions or reduction, the formulation unit 15 calculates the amount of emissions using the carbon dioxide emission coefficient.

[0040] The formulating unit 15 may use, for example, CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk: Conditional Expected Loss) as the objective function, or may use the average, median, worst value (maximum value) of procurement costs, or a combination of two or more of these. The average and median of procurement costs are examples of information indicating procurement costs, and the CVaR and worst value (maximum value) are examples of information indicating risk. The objective function is not limited to these examples.

[0041] CVaR is an index used in investments and other areas. In investments, CVaR indicates the average loss amount incurred with a probability outside a set probability level β. Figure 6 illustrates CVaR. The horizontal axis in Figure 6 represents profits and losses, and the vertical axis represents probability density. While no profits are generated in the procurement of environmental value, if we assume that the cost of procuring environmental value follows a distribution of probability, similar to the occurrence of losses and profits in investments, and consider increasing losses to represent increasing procurement costs and increasing profits to represent decreasing procurement costs, it is possible to calculate VaR and CVaR for the procurement of environmental value in the same way as for investments. For example, in investments, "the 95% VaR of a certain portfolio is 10,000 yen" indicates "there is a 5% probability of a loss of 10,000 yen or more," and "the 95% CVaR of a certain portfolio is 10,000 yen" indicates "the expected loss is 10,000 yen when a loss with the lowest 5% probability occurs." In the case of procuring environmental value, "the 95% VaR of a certain portfolio is 10,000 yen" can be interpreted as meaning "there is a 5% probability that procurement costs will be 10,000 yen or more," and "the 95% CVaR of a certain portfolio is 10,000 yen" can be interpreted as meaning "if procurement costs increase with the lowest 5% probability, the expected value of procurement costs will be 10,000 yen."

[0042] Specifically, for example, let j be the number identifying the procurement method, and y be the number identifying the procurement method. j indicates the procurement cost of the jth procurement method, and x j denotes the ratio of the jth procurement method, and x j ,y j Let x and y be vectors composed of the above, f(x,y) be the function that calculates the funding cost, and p(y) be the probability density function that f(x,y) follows. Let VaR be the maximum loss (VaR: Value at Risk) that occurs at probability level β. β (x), then CVaR(CVaR β(x)) can be expressed by the following formula (1). Since it is difficult to calculate p(y), we consider a method to minimize CVaR using the scenario method, using multiple price forecast curves set for each procurement method. In this case, by transforming formula (1), we can obtain formula (2) as a minimization problem. Here, let k be the number that identifies multiple price forecast curves, and let y be the procurement cost for each procurement method for a certain price forecast curve. [k] Let q be the number of price forecast curves and n be the number of procurement methods. k is a variable introduced to express the constraints.

[0043]

number

[0044]

number

[0045] The formulation unit 15 solves the minimization problem shown in Equation (2) under constraints based on the required amount of environmental value for each unit period and constraints such as the constraints in Equation (2). For example, the formulation unit 15 creates a portfolio by finding a solution that minimizes the objective function or makes the objective function equal to or less than a threshold value using methods such as iterative methods, steepest descent methods, mathematical optimization methods, heuristics, or metaheuristics. The formulation unit 15 may solve the problem by using the procurement amount of each procurement method for each unit period as a variable so that the objective function is minimized over the entire planning period, or may solve the problem by using the ratio of the procurement amounts of each procurement method as a variable, assuming that the ratio of the procurement amounts of each procurement method will not change over the entire planning period. However, since there are procurement methods such as solar power self-installation, on-site PPA, and off-site PPA, in which the procurement amount is fixed for a certain period (such as the period until the equipment's lifespan or the contract period), the formulation unit 15 creates a portfolio under the assumption that the procurement amount for these procurement methods will not change over the certain period. It should be noted that environmental value certificates may be purchased in advance and used later, taking into account their expiration dates. Alternatively, the formulation unit 15 may solve the problem so as to minimize the objective function over the entire planning period, on the premise that the procurement volume ratio is calculated for each divided period obtained by dividing the planning period, which is different from the unit period. For example, if the unit period is six months, the processing load can be reduced by setting the divided period to a period longer than the unit period, such as two years.

[0046] Furthermore, for example, if a required value of an index related to environmental value is required to be met for each specified period, such as one year, the formulation unit 15 can create a portfolio so that the required amount of environmental value can be procured for each unit period by matching the unit period with this specified period. Note that the unit period and the above-mentioned specified period do not have to match, and in this case, satisfying the required value of the index related to environmental value within the specified period may be a constraint.

[0047] The formulating unit 15 may also use one of the CVaR, average value, median value, worst value (maximum value) of procurement costs, etc., exemplified above, as the objective function, and use other items as constraint conditions. For example, the formulating unit 15 may determine a portfolio that minimizes the average value or median value of procurement costs by using as a constraint condition that an index indicating risk, such as the worst value of procurement costs or the CVaR value, falls within a threshold value and using as the objective function the average value or median value of procurement costs. The formulating unit 15 may also create multiple portfolios with different objective functions.

[0048] In addition, a consumer may have some constraints or preferences for budget planning, such as wanting to keep the annual budget below a certain value, wanting to smooth the annual budget as much as possible, wanting to spend more in the first half of the planning period, or wanting to spend more in the second half of the planning period. In such cases, budget request information indicating the constraints or preferences regarding the budget planning may be included in the consumer request information, and the formulation unit 15 may create a portfolio using the budget request information as a constraint condition. Also, since different consumers may prioritize whether they prioritize low risk or cost reduction as an average, priority information indicating what is prioritized may be included in the consumer request information, and the formulation unit 15 may set the objective function according to the priority information. For example, if low risk is prioritized, the formulation unit 15 sets the worst value of CVaR or procurement cost as the objective function, and if cost reduction as an average is prioritized, the formulation unit 15 sets the average value of procurement cost as the objective function.

[0049] Furthermore, some consumers may have restrictions on procurement methods, such as an upper limit on the installation area of ​​solar panels. In such cases, information indicating the restrictions on procurement methods may be included in the consumer request information, and the formulation unit 15 may set the objective function according to the information indicating the restrictions on procurement methods. There may be procurement methods that consumers want to use or intentionally do not want to use, and procurement method information indicating the procurement methods that consumers want to use or intentionally do not want to use may be included in the consumer request information, and the formulation unit 15 may set constraint conditions according to the procurement method information.

[0050] In the above example, the requirement regarding environmental value is defined as a required value of an index regarding environmental value, and risk, cost, and the like are set as objective functions within a range that satisfies the required value. This is not limiting, and for example, the formulation unit 15 may create a portfolio by formulating the policy to maximize the renewable energy ratio or minimize carbon dioxide emissions after setting the risk, cost, and the like below a threshold. In this case, the requirement regarding environmental value is expressed as a requirement to maximize the renewable energy ratio or minimize carbon dioxide emissions, etc.

[0051] Returning to the explanation of FIG. 2, after step S4, the information processing device 1 presents the portfolio (step S5) and ends the processing. In detail, in step S5, the presenting unit 16 presents the portfolio to the consumer by displaying the portfolio stored in the information storage unit 12. Alternatively, the presenting unit 16 may generate display information for displaying the portfolio stored in the information storage unit 12 and transmit the generated display information to the terminal device 2 to present the portfolio to the consumer, or may present the portfolio to the consumer by both displaying and transmitting the portfolio. Upon receiving the display information, the terminal device 2 displays the portfolio based on the display information.

[0052] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of a portfolio display according to the present embodiment. The presentation unit 16 or the terminal device 2 displays the portfolio by, for example, displaying the display screen shown in FIG. 7. The upper part of the display screen shown in FIG. 7 displays a price forecast curve for each procurement method, and the lower part of the display screen shown in FIG. 7 displays the portfolio for each fixed period, which is a unit period. Note that FIG. 7 does not show the price forecast curves for some procurement methods. In the example shown in FIG. 7, the portfolio is shown as a pie chart showing the ratio of procurement volume for each procurement method. The portfolio is not limited to this, and may be shown as a pie chart showing the ratio of procurement cost for each procurement method. Furthermore, while FIG. 7 displays the portfolio as a pie chart, it may be shown as text or as a graph other than a pie chart, such as a bar graph, and the method of displaying the portfolio is not limited to a pie chart.

[0053] Furthermore, while FIG. 7 shows an example in which a portfolio for each unit period is displayed, a portfolio for the entire planning period may also be displayed. Furthermore, the presentation unit 16 may switch between a display screen displaying the portfolio for the entire planning period and a display screen displaying the portfolio for each unit period by receiving a switching instruction input from a consumer. The switching instruction may be received by the acquisition unit 11 or by an input receiving unit (not shown). Furthermore, while FIG. 7 shows the price forecast curve and the portfolio displayed on the same screen, they may each be displayed on separate display screens. Furthermore, there are no restrictions on the items, display mode, and arrangement of each item displayed on the display screen displaying the portfolio, and the display screen displaying the portfolio is not limited to the example shown in FIG. 7.

[0054] Furthermore, the presentation unit 16 may display multiple types of portfolios. For example, the formulation unit 15 may create a number of portfolios in ascending order of objective function, such as the portfolio with the second smallest objective function, the portfolio with the third smallest objective function, and so on, in addition to the portfolio that minimizes the objective function, and store these in the information storage unit 12. Note that when optimization is performed to maximize the objective function, a number of portfolios in descending order of objective function are created. The presentation unit 16 may present multiple portfolios with different objective function values ​​to the consumer. Furthermore, the presentation unit 16 may display multiple portfolios with different objective functions or different constraints.

[0055] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of displaying multiple portfolios with different objective functions according to this embodiment. In the example shown in FIG. 8, three types of portfolios are displayed: minimum average, minimum risk, and minimum median. The minimum average is a portfolio created to minimize the objective function using the average value of procurement costs over the planning period as the objective function. The minimum risk is a portfolio created to minimize the objective function using, for example, CVaR or the worst value of procurement costs as the objective function. The minimum median is a portfolio created to minimize the objective function using the median value of procurement costs over the planning period as the objective function. FIG. 8 is just one example, and there are no restrictions on the objective functions corresponding to the portfolios displayed, the number of types of portfolios displayed, the items displayed on the display screen, the display format, the arrangement of each item, etc., and the display screen for displaying the portfolios is not limited to the example shown in FIG. 8.

[0056] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of displaying multiple portfolios with different constraints according to this embodiment. FIG. 9 shows an example in which portfolios are created by setting three types of constraints on the budget for each fiscal year: (1) no conditions (budget-related constraints), (2) budget leveling, and (3) minimum initial cost. In the example shown in FIG. 9, the objective function is common to the three types of portfolios. FIG. 9 is just one example, and there are no restrictions on the constraints corresponding to the portfolios to be displayed, the number of types of portfolios to be displayed, the items to be displayed on the display screen, the display format, the arrangement of each item, etc., and the display screen for displaying the portfolios is not limited to the example shown in FIG. 9. In addition, it may be possible to switch which display screen is to be displayed among the display screens shown in FIGS. 7, 8, and 9 by receiving a switching instruction input from a consumer.

[0057] Furthermore, if the consumer is a large-scale consumer such as a building, the information processing device 1 may treat the entire large-scale consumer as a single consumer and perform the above-described processing, or may perform the above-described processing for each of multiple individual consumers (small-scale consumers), such as tenants of the building. In the latter case, common information is shared among the small-scale consumers, and consumer information is entered for each consumer. When displaying a portfolio, the portfolio of each small-scale consumer may be displayed, or a portfolio as an aggregate result for the entire building may be displayed, or both may be displayed. Note that the procurement of environmental value may be carried out by each small-scale consumer, or may be aggregated by the large-scale consumer who is the building owner. In the latter case, if the information processing device 1 of this embodiment is not used, the building owner must individually aggregate environmental value requests from each tenant and create a procurement plan. In contrast, if the information processing device 1 of this embodiment is used, a procurement plan for environmental value for the entire building can be created based on the above-described aggregated portfolio for the entire building, thereby reducing the workload of the building owner.

[0058] Next, the hardware configuration of the information processing device 1 of this embodiment will be described. In the information processing device 1 of this embodiment shown in FIG. 1, a computer system executes a program, which is a computer program describing the processing in the information processing device 1, so that the computer system functions as the information processing device 1. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a computer system that realizes the information processing device 1 of this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 10, this computer system includes a control unit 101, an input unit 102, a memory unit 103, a display unit 104, a communication unit 105, and an output unit 106, which are connected via a system bus 107. The control unit 101 and the memory unit 103 form a processing circuit.

[0059] In FIG. 10 , the control unit 101 is a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and executes a program describing the processing of the information processing device 1 of this embodiment. Note that a portion of the control unit 101 may be realized by dedicated hardware such as a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) or an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array). The input unit 102 includes buttons, a keyboard, a mouse, a touchpad, and the like. The storage unit 103 includes various types of memory such as RAM (Random Access Memory) and ROM (Read Only Memory) and a storage device such as a hard disk, and stores programs to be executed by the control unit 101, necessary data obtained during processing, and the like. The storage unit 103 is also used as a temporary storage area for programs. The display unit 104 is, for example, a display such as an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display). Note that the display unit 104 and the input unit 102 may be integrated and realized by a touch panel or the like. The communication unit 105 is a receiver and a transmitter that perform communication processing. The output unit 106 is a speaker or the like. Note that Fig. 10 is just an example, and the configuration of the computer system is not limited to the example of Fig. 10. For example, the computer system that realizes the information processing device 1 does not need to include the display unit 104 and the output unit 106.

[0060] Here, an example of the operation of the computer system until the program of this embodiment is ready to be executed will be described. In the computer system having the above-described configuration, for example, a computer program is installed in storage unit 103 from a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM inserted in a CD (Compact Disc)-ROM drive or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc)-ROM drive (not shown). Then, when the program is executed, the program read from storage unit 103 is stored in the main storage area of ​​storage unit 103. In this state, control unit 101 executes processing as information processing device 1 of this embodiment in accordance with the program stored in storage unit 103.

[0061] In the above description, a program describing the processing in the information processing device 1 is provided using a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM as a recording medium, but this is not limited to this, and depending on the configuration of the computer system, the capacity of the program to be provided, etc., it is also possible to use a program provided via a transmission medium such as the Internet.

[0062] The program of this embodiment, for example, causes a computer program to execute the steps of acquiring consumer requirement information, and using power consumption forecast information, price forecast curves for each of multiple procurement methods of environmental value, and the consumer requirement information, creating a portfolio that shows a combination of procurement methods for procuring environmental value so as to meet the consumer's requirements regarding environmental value, and at least one of the multiple procurement methods has multiple price forecast curves.

[0063] The demand forecasting unit 13, the price forecasting unit 14, and the formulating unit 15 shown in FIG. 1 are realized by the control unit 101 shown in FIG. 10 executing a computer program stored in the storage unit 103 shown in FIG. 10. The storage unit 103 shown in FIG. 10 is also used to realize the demand forecasting unit 13, the price forecasting unit 14, and the formulating unit 15. The acquisition unit 11 shown in FIG. 1 is realized by at least one of the communication unit 105 and the input unit 102 shown in FIG. 10. The information storage unit 12 shown in FIG. 1 is part of the storage unit 103 shown in FIG. 10. The presentation unit 16 shown in FIG. 1 is realized by at least one of the communication unit 105 and the display unit 104 shown in FIG. 10. The information processing device 1 may be realized by multiple computer systems. For example, the information processing device 1 may be realized by a cloud computer system. The terminal device 2 shown in FIG. 1 may also be realized by, for example, the computer system illustrated in FIG. 10.

[0064] As described above, the information processing device 1 of this embodiment creates a portfolio related to the procurement of environmental value using the consumer's requirements for environmental value, the consumer's power consumption forecast information, and a price forecast curve for each procurement method, including multiple price forecast curves for at least one environmental value procurement method. This allows the information processing device 1 to appropriately support the formulation of a consumer's procurement plan. Furthermore, when the administrator of the information processing device 1 inputs the above-mentioned common information, the consumer only needs to input the consumer information, and can obtain a portfolio related to the procurement of environmental value with simple information input, thereby reducing the consumer's workload. Furthermore, the information processing device 1 may present multiple types of portfolios, allowing the consumer to select an appropriate portfolio from the multiple types of portfolios (portfolio candidates) presented, taking into account various individual circumstances that may not be considered by the information processing device 1.

[0065] Embodiment 2 FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of an information processing device 1a according to a second embodiment. The information processing device 1a according to this embodiment is similar to the information processing device 1 according to the first embodiment, except that a procurement support unit 17 is added. Components having the same functions as those in the first embodiment are given the same reference numerals as those in the first embodiment, and redundant explanations will be omitted. Below, differences from the first embodiment will be mainly explained.

[0066] The procurement support unit 17 performs a procurement process for an environmental value based on instructions (hereinafter referred to as procurement instructions) from a consumer, who is a user, regarding the procurement of an environmental value. For example, the acquisition unit 11 acquires the procurement instructions by accepting input from the consumer or by receiving them from the terminal device 2, and outputs the acquired procurement instructions to the procurement support unit 17. The procurement instructions include at least information specifying the procurement method, and may also include specifications such as the contract period, procurement time, and the renewable energy menu to be specified.

[0067] Based on the procurement instructions, the procurement support unit 17 performs quotation requests, order processing, contract processing, bidding processing, and the like with a system corresponding to the procurement method. For example, if the procurement method is procurement through self-generation, quotation processing, contract processing, and the like for installing renewable energy power generation equipment are performed with a system managed by a business that sells renewable energy power generation equipment. If the procurement method is on-site PPA or off-site PPA, quotation processing, contract processing, and the like for PPA are performed with a system managed by a business that provides these services. If the procurement method is procurement through bidding, bidding processing is performed with a system that accepts bids. If the procurement method is purchase from a retail electricity supplier, contract processing and the like are performed with a system managed by the retail electricity supplier. Note that information required for procurement processing, such as the consumer's name and address, may be input by the consumer and stored in advance in the information storage unit 12, or this information may be included in the procurement instructions.

[0068] Furthermore, the information processing device 1a may receive, as a procurement instruction, a selection of a portfolio to be adopted by a consumer for actual procurement from among the created portfolios, and perform procurement processing based on the selected portfolio. Furthermore, the information processing device 1a does not need to perform procurement processing for all procurement methods, and may perform procurement processing for only some of the procurement methods.

[0069] 11 shows an example in which information processing device 1a performs procurement processing, but a procurement support device may be provided separately from information processing device 1a, and the procurement support device may perform procurement processing. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of an information processing system according to this embodiment. In the example shown in FIG. 12, the information processing system includes information processing device 1b and procurement support device 3. Information processing device 1b is similar to information processing device 1 of embodiment 1, except that it has a procurement information output unit 18 added to it.

[0070] The procurement information output unit 18 generates procurement information indicating the details of the procurement of environmental value based on a procurement instruction from a user, i.e., a consumer, and outputs the procurement information to the procurement support device 3. As in the example shown in FIG. 11 , the procurement instruction is acquired by the acquisition unit 11, for example, by accepting an input from a consumer or by receiving it from the terminal device 2.

[0071] The procurement support device 3 performs procurement processing using the procurement information received from the information processing device 1b, similar to the procurement support unit 17 of the information processing device 1a described above. The configuration example shown in FIG. 11 and the configuration example shown in FIG. 12 may be combined, with the procurement support device 3 performing procurement processing for some of the procurement methods and the information processing device 1a performing procurement processing for the remaining procurement methods. For example, if the procurement support device 3 is a bidding support device that performs bidding processing and the procurement method is the delivery of a certificate through a bidding, the bidding support device may perform bidding processing for the certificate, and the information processing device 1a may perform procurement processing for the other procurement methods. Furthermore, a procurement support device 3 that performs bidding processing corresponding to each market may be provided for each market where bidding is conducted. In the configuration example shown in FIG. 12, the information processing device 1b may also receive, as a procurement instruction, a selection of a portfolio to be adopted by a consumer for actual procurement from among the created portfolios, and generate procurement information based on the selected portfolio.

[0072] Like information processing device 1 of embodiment 1, information processing devices 1a and 1b of this embodiment are realized by, for example, the computer system illustrated in FIG. 10. Procurement support device 3 is also realized by the computer system illustrated in FIG. 10. Information processing devices 1a and 1b and procurement support device 3 may be realized by multiple computer systems. Also, for example, information processing devices 1a and 1b and procurement support device 3 may be realized by a cloud computer system. Procurement support unit 17 is realized by control unit 101 shown in FIG. 10 executing a computer program stored in memory unit 103 shown in FIG. 10. Memory unit 103 shown in FIG. 10 is also used to realize procurement support unit 17. Procurement information output unit 18 is realized by communication unit 105 shown in FIG. 10.

[0073] As described above, in this embodiment, the procurement support unit 17 or the procurement support device 3 performs procurement processing according to the procurement method. This reduces the workload required for the procurement processing on the consumer. Furthermore, by performing procurement processing based on the portfolio created by the information processing devices 1a and 1b, the information processing devices 1a and 1b can seamlessly execute processing related to the procurement of environmental value.

[0074] Embodiment 3 13 is a diagram showing a configuration example of an information processing device 1c according to a third embodiment. The information processing device 1c of this embodiment is similar to the information processing device 1 of the first embodiment, except that it includes a demand forecasting unit 13a, a price forecasting unit 14a, and a formulation unit 15a instead of the demand forecasting unit 13, the price forecasting unit 14, and the formulation unit 15. Components having the same functions as those of the first embodiment are assigned the same reference numerals as those of the first embodiment, and redundant explanations will be omitted. Below, differences from the first embodiment will be mainly explained.

[0075] The Greenhouse Gas Protocol, an international standard for calculating and reporting greenhouse gas emissions, defines Scope 1 and Scope 2 as follows: Scope 1: Direct greenhouse gas emissions from fuel use and industrial processes within the company Scope 2: Indirect greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the use of electricity, heat, and steam supplied by other companies

[0076] In the first embodiment, an example was described in which an environmental value procurement portfolio was created that took into consideration requirements related to indirect carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the use of electricity in Scope 2. In the present embodiment, an example is described in which an environmental value procurement portfolio is created that takes into consideration not only electricity but also the use of fuel within the company in Scope 1 and direct emissions resulting from industrial processes.

[0077] The demand prediction unit 13a includes a first demand prediction unit 131 and a second demand prediction unit 132. The first demand prediction unit 131 generates power consumption prediction information in the same manner as the demand prediction unit 13 of the first embodiment. Note that, similar to the first embodiment, the power consumption prediction information may be acquired by the acquisition unit 11 and stored in the information storage unit 12 instead of the first demand prediction unit 131 predicting power consumption.

[0078] The second demand forecasting unit 132 forecasts activity amounts that directly affect greenhouse gas emissions, such as fuel used by consumers and the production volume of products that emit greenhouse gases in industrial processes, and generates activity amount forecast information that indicates the forecast results for each unit period. For example, the consumer information may include activity amount actual information that indicates actual values ​​of fuel used by consumers and the production volume of products that emit carbon dioxide in industrial processes, and the second demand forecasting unit 132 may generate the activity amount forecast information by making a forecast based on the activity amount actual information. Alternatively, instead of the second demand forecasting unit 132 forecasting the greenhouse gas emissions from greenhouse gas emission sources other than electricity, activity amount forecast information created by another device (not shown) may be acquired by the acquiring unit 11 and stored in the information storage unit 12. The following describes an example in which carbon dioxide is considered as a greenhouse gas. However, greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide may also be considered, or greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide may be converted to carbon dioxide by multiplying them by their global warming potential. Here, the global warming potential is a coefficient that indicates how many times greater the greenhouse effect of a gas is than that of carbon dioxide.

[0079] In this embodiment, for example, the consumer request information includes, as in embodiment 1, a request value for an index of environmental value resulting from electricity use as first request information. Furthermore, in this embodiment, the consumer request information includes second request information (direct emission request information) indicating a request value for an index of environmental value relative to the amount of direct greenhouse gas emissions. The second request information may be expressed, for example, by the amount of carbon dioxide reduction, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions, or a carbon dioxide emission coefficient.

[0080] The price prediction unit 14a includes a first price prediction unit 141 and a second price prediction unit 142. Similar to the price prediction unit 14 of the first embodiment, the first price prediction unit 141 creates a price prediction curve as a first price prediction curve for each procurement method of an environmental value related to electricity. As described in the first embodiment, instead of the first price prediction unit 141 creating the first price prediction curve, the first price prediction curve may be acquired by the acquisition unit 11 and stored in the information storage unit 12.

[0081] The second price prediction unit 142 creates a price prediction curve as a second price prediction curve for each procurement method of the environmental value related to the direct emission of greenhouse gases (hereinafter also referred to as the direct emission environmental value). Similar to the method for creating the first price prediction curve, the second price prediction curve may be created by creating multiple second price prediction curves for each procurement method. The second price prediction curve may be created using an approximation formula, machine learning, or the like, as in the first embodiment, or by generating random numbers using a probability distribution such as that used in Monte Carlo simulation. While using past performance or a probability distribution to create the second price prediction curve can enhance user satisfaction, the method for creating the second price prediction curve is not limited to these. Instead of the second price prediction unit 142 creating the second price prediction curve, similar to the first price prediction curve, the second price prediction curve may be acquired by the acquisition unit 11 and stored in the information storage unit 12. The procurement method for the direct emission environmental value may partially overlap with the procurement method for the electricity environmental value. For example, J-Credit can be used for both. For procurement methods that overlap between the procurement of the environmental value of electricity and the procurement of the environmental value of direct emissions, the first price forecast curve may also be used as the second price forecast curve. Bilateral trading of carbon dioxide emissions can also be used for both the procurement of the environmental value of electricity and the procurement of the environmental value of direct emissions. Methods for procuring the environmental value of direct emissions include, but are not limited to, upgrading to equipment that generates less carbon dioxide emissions or upgrading to equipment with high energy efficiency.

[0082] The formulation unit 15a creates a portfolio of environmental value procurement for electricity, as in the first embodiment. Furthermore, the formulation unit 15a sets constraint conditions for creating a portfolio of environmental value procurement for direct emissions, as in the first embodiment, based on the second requirement information and activity amount prediction information, and creates a portfolio of environmental value procurement for direct emissions using the constraint conditions and the objective function. That is, the formulation unit 15a uses the activity amount prediction information, a price prediction curve indicating the predicted values ​​of each of the procurement methods for multiple environmental values ​​corresponding to the amount of greenhouse gas emissions of direct emissions, and the second requirement information to create a portfolio indicating a combination of procurement methods for procuring environmental value corresponding to the amount of direct emissions so as to satisfy the requirement indicated by the second requirement information. The method of creating the portfolio is the same as in the first embodiment. The objective function is also the same as in the first embodiment.

[0083] The presentation unit 16 presents the portfolio of environmental value procurement for electricity to the consumer, and also presents the portfolio of environmental value procurement for direct emissions to the consumer. Alternatively, the formulation unit 15a may create a portfolio showing the ratio of the overall procurement methods for each unit period using both the procurement costs for each method of environmental value procurement for electricity and the procurement costs for each method of environmental value procurement for direct emissions, and the presentation unit 16 may present the portfolio.

[0084] Instead of creating a portfolio for electricity environmental value procurement and a portfolio for direct emissions environmental value procurement separately, the formulation unit 15a may perform optimization taking into account both electricity environmental value procurement and direct emissions environmental value procurement. In this case, the required values ​​of the environmental value procurement indicators may be determined separately, or may be determined as the total carbon dioxide emission reduction amount, carbon dioxide emission amount, etc. The formulation unit 15a uses, for example, CVaR, which takes into account both electricity environmental value procurement and direct emissions environmental value procurement, as well as the average, median, and worst-case (maximum) value of procurement costs, as the objective function, and solves using constraints for both electricity environmental value procurement and direct emissions environmental value procurement. This allows the formulation unit 15a to create an overall portfolio including both electricity environmental value procurement and direct emissions environmental value procurement. The formulation unit 15a may also create an electricity environmental value procurement portfolio and a direct emissions environmental value procurement portfolio based on the created overall portfolio.

[0085] Similarly, the information processing device 1c may use the results of forecasting the consumption of heat, steam, and the like other than electricity in Scope 2 to create a portfolio of environmental value procurement corresponding to heat, steam, and the like other than electricity in Scope 2. In this case, too, the information processing device 1c may create a portfolio by performing optimization taking into consideration all of the environmental value procurement of electricity, the environmental value procurement of direct emissions, and the environmental value procurement corresponding to heat, steam, and the like other than electricity in Scope 2.

[0086] The information processing device 1c of this embodiment is realized, for example, by the computer system illustrated in FIG. 10, similar to the information processing device 1 of the first embodiment. The information processing device 1c may be realized by a plurality of computer systems. Furthermore, for example, the information processing device 1c may be realized by a cloud computer system. The demand forecasting unit 13a, the price forecasting unit 14a, and the formulation unit 15a are realized by the control unit 101 illustrated in FIG. 10 executing computer programs stored in the storage unit 103. The storage unit 103 illustrated in FIG. 10 is also used to realize the demand forecasting unit 13a, the price forecasting unit 14a, and the formulation unit 15a.

[0087] As described above, in this embodiment, the information processing device 1c creates an environmental value procurement portfolio that includes not only electricity but also the procurement of environmental value for emissions from greenhouse gas emission sources other than electricity. Therefore, the information processing device 1c can also support the procurement of environmental value for emissions from greenhouse gas emission sources other than electricity, thereby reducing the workload of consumers. Consumers can check a portfolio that takes into account the procurement of environmental value for emissions from greenhouse gas emission sources other than electricity, making it easier to formulate overall budget plans, equipment plans, etc.

[0088] The configurations shown in the above embodiments are merely examples, and may be combined with other known technologies, or different embodiments may be combined with each other. It is also possible to omit or modify parts of the configurations as long as they do not deviate from the gist of the invention.

[0089] Various aspects of the present disclosure are summarized below as appendices.

[0090] (Appendix 1) an acquisition unit that acquires consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a formulation unit that uses power consumption forecast information indicating a forecast value of power consumption of a consumer, a price forecast curve indicating a forecast value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of a plurality of procurement methods of the environmental value, and the consumer request information to create a portfolio indicating a combination of the procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer request information; Equipped with 10. An information processing device comprising: at least one of the plurality of procurement methods having a plurality of price prediction curves; (Appendix 2) a price prediction unit that creates the price prediction curve; 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, comprising: (Appendix 3) The information processing device according to claim 2, wherein the price prediction unit creates the price prediction curve based on a probability distribution of procurement prices in the procurement method. (Appendix 4) a demand prediction unit that creates the power consumption prediction information by predicting the power consumption of the consumer based on an actual value of the power consumption of the consumer; 4. The information processing device according to claim 1, further comprising: (Appendix 5) The information processing device described in any one of Appendices 1 to 4, characterized in that the multiple procurement methods include at least one of power generation by renewable energy power generation equipment owned by the consumer that generates electricity using renewable energy, procurement through a power sales contract, procurement of environmental value certificates, and purchasing electricity generated using renewable energy from a retail electricity supplier. (Appendix 6) The consumer request information includes system information indicating a reporting system for environmental value corresponding to the consumer, The information processing device described in Appendix 5, characterized in that the formulation unit creates the portfolio so as to conform to the reporting system corresponding to the consumer based on the system information. (Appendix 7) An information processing device described in any one of Appendices 1 to 6, characterized in that the customer request information indicates a renewable energy ratio, which is the ratio of electricity generated using renewable energy to the electricity consumed by the customer. (Appendix 8) 8. The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein there are a plurality of customers, and the portfolio is created for each of the customers. (Appendix 9) An information processing device described in any one of Appendices 1 to 8, characterized in that the formulation unit creates the portfolio using an objective function including at least one of information indicating the procurement cost of environmental value and information indicating the risk related to the procurement of the environmental value, and constraint conditions. (Appendix 10) The information processing device according to claim 9, wherein a plurality of portfolios with different values ​​of the objective function are created. (Appendix 11) The information processing device according to claim 9, wherein the information processing device creates a plurality of portfolios with different objective functions. (Appendix 12) The information processing device according to claim 9, wherein the information processing device creates a plurality of portfolios with different constraints. (Appendix 13) The information processing device described in any one of Appendices 1 to 12, characterized in that the formulation unit uses activity amount prediction information indicating a predicted value of the consumer's activity amount that affects direct greenhouse gas emissions, a price prediction curve indicating a predicted value of the price required to procure the environmental value for each of multiple environmental value procurement methods corresponding to the direct greenhouse gas emissions, and direct emission requirement information indicating the consumer's requirement for the environmental value regarding the direct greenhouse gas emissions, to create a portfolio indicating a combination of the procurement methods for procuring the environmental value corresponding to the direct emission emissions so as to satisfy the requirement indicated by the direct emission requirement information. (Appendix 14) a presentation unit that presents the portfolio to the consumer; 14. The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 13, comprising: (Appendix 15) a procurement support department that processes the procurement of the environmental value; 14. The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 13, comprising: (Appendix 16) an information processing device; A procurement support device; Equipped with The information processing device includes: an acquisition unit that acquires consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a formulation unit that uses power consumption forecast information indicating a forecast value of power consumption of a consumer, a price forecast curve indicating a forecast value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of a plurality of procurement methods of the environmental value, and the consumer request information to create a portfolio indicating a combination of the procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer request information; a procurement information output unit that outputs procurement information instructing the procurement of the environmental value based on the portfolio to the procurement support device; Equipped with The information processing system is characterized in that the procurement support device performs procurement processing of the environmental value using the procurement information. (Appendix 17) An information processing method in an information processing device, acquiring consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a step of creating a portfolio indicating a combination of procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer requirement information, using power consumption prediction information indicating a predicted value of the consumer's power consumption, a price prediction curve indicating a predicted value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of the multiple procurement methods for the environmental value, and the consumer requirement information; Including, An information processing method, characterized in that at least one of the plurality of procurement methods has a plurality of price forecast curves. (Appendix 18) In the computer system, acquiring consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a step of creating a portfolio indicating a combination of procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer requirement information, using power consumption prediction information indicating a predicted value of the consumer's power consumption, a price prediction curve indicating a predicted value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of the multiple procurement methods for the environmental value, and the consumer requirement information; Execute The program is characterized in that at least one of the plurality of procurement methods has a plurality of price forecast curves. [Explanation of symbols]

[0091] 1, 1a, 1b, 1c information processing device, 2 terminal device, 3 procurement support device, 11 acquisition unit, 12 information storage unit, 13, 13a demand forecasting unit, 14, 14a price forecasting unit, 15, 15a formulation unit, 16 presentation unit, 17 procurement support unit, 18 procurement information output unit, 131 first demand forecasting unit, 132 second demand forecasting unit, 141 first price forecasting unit, 142 second price forecasting unit.

Claims

1. an acquisition unit that acquires consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a formulation unit that uses power consumption forecast information indicating a forecast value of power consumption of a consumer, a price forecast curve indicating a forecast value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of a plurality of procurement methods of the environmental value, and the consumer request information to create a portfolio indicating a combination of the procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer request information; Equipped with 10. An information processing device comprising: at least one of said plurality of procurement methods having a plurality of price prediction curves;

2. a price prediction unit that creates the price prediction curve; 2. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising:

3. 3. The information processing apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the price prediction unit creates the price prediction curve based on a probability distribution of procurement prices in the procurement method.

4. a demand prediction unit that creates the power consumption prediction information by predicting the power consumption of the consumer based on an actual value of the power consumption of the consumer; 2. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising:

5. 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of procurement methods include at least one of power generation by a renewable energy power generation facility owned by the consumer that generates electricity using renewable energy, procurement through a power sales contract, procurement of an environmental value certificate, and purchase of electricity generated using renewable energy from a retail electricity supplier.

6. The consumer request information includes system information indicating a reporting system for environmental value corresponding to the consumer, The information processing device according to claim 5 , wherein the formulation unit creates the portfolio based on the system information so as to conform to the reporting system corresponding to the customer.

7. The information processing device according to claim 1 , wherein the customer request information indicates a renewable energy ratio, which is a ratio of power generated using renewable energy to the power consumed by the customer.

8. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein there are a plurality of customers, and the portfolio is created for each of the customers.

9. The information processing device according to claim 1, characterized in that the formulation unit creates the portfolio using an objective function including at least one of information indicating the procurement cost of an environmental value and information indicating the risk associated with the procurement of the environmental value, and constraints.

10. The information processing apparatus according to claim 9 , wherein a plurality of portfolios with different objective function values ​​are created.

11. The information processing apparatus according to claim 9 , wherein a plurality of portfolios with different objective functions are created.

12. 10. The information processing apparatus according to claim 9, wherein a plurality of portfolios with different constraints are created.

13. The information processing device of claim 1, characterized in that the formulation unit uses activity amount prediction information indicating a predicted value of the consumer's activity amount that affects direct greenhouse gas emissions, a price prediction curve indicating a predicted value of the price required to procure the environmental value for each of multiple environmental value procurement methods corresponding to the consumer's direct greenhouse gas emissions, and direct emission requirement information indicating the consumer's requirement for the environmental value regarding the consumer's direct greenhouse gas emissions, to create a portfolio indicating a combination of the procurement methods for procuring the environmental value corresponding to the consumer's direct emission emissions so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the direct emission requirement information.

14. a presentation unit that presents the portfolio to the consumer; 14. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising:

15. a procurement support department that processes the procurement of the environmental value; 14. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising:

16. an information processing device; A procurement support device; Equipped with The information processing device includes: an acquisition unit that acquires consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a formulation unit that uses power consumption forecast information indicating a forecast value of power consumption of a consumer, a price forecast curve indicating a forecast value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of a plurality of procurement methods of the environmental value, and the consumer request information to create a portfolio indicating a combination of the procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer request information; a procurement information output unit that outputs procurement information instructing the procurement of the environmental value based on the portfolio to the procurement support device; Equipped with The information processing system is characterized in that the procurement support device performs procurement processing of the environmental value using the procurement information.

17. An information processing method in an information processing device, acquiring consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a step of creating a portfolio indicating a combination of procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer requirement information, using power consumption prediction information indicating a predicted value of the consumer's power consumption, a price prediction curve indicating a predicted value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of the multiple procurement methods for the environmental value, and the consumer requirement information; Including, An information processing method, characterized in that at least one of the plurality of procurement methods has a plurality of price forecast curves.

18. In the computer system, acquiring consumer request information indicating consumer requests regarding environmental value; a step of creating a portfolio indicating a combination of procurement methods for procuring the environmental value so as to satisfy the requirements indicated by the consumer requirement information, using power consumption prediction information indicating a predicted value of the consumer's power consumption, a price prediction curve indicating a predicted value of the price required to procure the environmental value using each of the multiple procurement methods for the environmental value, and the consumer requirement information; Execute The program is characterized in that at least one of the plurality of procurement methods has a plurality of price forecast curves.

Images