Dispatch plan creating apparatus, dispatch plan creating method, and dispatch plan creating program

Abstract

To provide a dispatch plan creation device, a dispatch plan creation method and a dispatch plan creation program for creating a dispatch plan in which the control performance of energy resources and the distribution of activation are balanced.SOLUTION: A dispatch plan creation device includes a first index calculation unit that calculates an index of control performance of an energy resource, a second index calculation unit that calculates an index of activation frequency of the energy resource, an optimization problem formulation unit that adds a value obtained by multiplying the index of the control performance of the energy resource by a state variable indicating an activation state of the energy resource and a value obtained by multiplying a penalty coefficient indicating a balance between the index of the control performance of the energy resource and the index of the activation frequency of the energy resource by the index of the activation frequency of the energy resource and the state variable, and sets an objective function for totaling for all the energy resources, and a solving unit that obtains a solution to an optimization problem of a dispatch plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a dispatch plan creating device, a dispatch plan creating method, and a dispatch plan creating program, which are operation plans for energy resources. [Background technology]

[0002] With the aim of stabilizing the supply of electricity, demand response (DR) is implemented, in which consumers set electricity rates and pay incentives, and change electricity demand by controlling the power generation equipment, storage equipment, and electricity consumption equipment (hereinafter referred to as "energy resources").

[0003] When DR is performed, a dispatch plan is created that plans for all energy resources, including whether to start or stop the energy resources and how to set the control of the energy resources. For example, there is known a technology (see, for example, Patent Document 1) that creates a dispatch plan that achieves the command value from the electric utility and does not invoke DR (hereinafter, when simply written "invocation" it means invocation of DR) for energy resources that have a low compliance rate with past dispatch plans, thereby achieving the command value from the electric utility. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2023-108712 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, conventional technologies may not be able to create a dispatch plan that balances the control performance of energy resources and the decentralization of their activation. For example, burdens and benefits may arise when DR is activated for an energy resource, and if a dispatch plan is created that focuses only on the control performance of the energy resource, such burdens and benefits will be concentrated on some energy resources. However, from the perspective of fairness, it is desirable to decentralize them. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems and achieve the object, the dispatch plan creation device of the present invention is characterized by comprising: a first index calculation unit configured to calculate an index of control performance of the energy resource based on the difference between past actual power generation and planned power generation, using the amount of change in power consumption of the energy resource as power generation; a second index calculation unit configured to calculate an index of activation frequency of the energy resource based on the operation history of the energy resource; an optimization problem formulation unit configured to set at least a constraint equation that matches a command value from an electric utility and the total of planned power generation, and to formulate an optimization problem of the dispatch plan by adding a value obtained by multiplying the index of control performance of the energy resource by a state variable indicating the activation state of the energy resource and a value obtained by multiplying the index of activation frequency of the energy resource by a penalty coefficient indicating the balance between the index of control performance and the index of activation frequency of the energy resource and the state variable, and totaling the values ​​for all energy resources; and a solution finding unit configured to find, as a solution to the optimization problem of the dispatch plan, a state value that is the value of the state variable for each energy resource and the planned power generation that minimizes the value of the objective function under the constraint equation. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] According to the present invention, it is possible to create a dispatch plan that strikes a good balance between the control performance of energy resources and the decentralization of their activation. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a dispatch plan creation device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the dispatch plan creation unit according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the dispatch plan creation unit according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of data on the planned power generation amount and the actual power generation amount of the energy resource in the past. [Figure 5] FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the operation of the setting unit according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the operation of the setting unit according to the first embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of data used to formulate an optimization problem for a dispatch plan according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a dispatch plan creation device according to the fifth embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the first index calculation unit according to the fifth embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of data on the past actual power generation amount, data on the planned power generation amount, data on temperature, and data on the amount of solar radiation of an energy resource. [Figure 11] FIG. 11 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a computer that realizes the dispatch plan creation device according to each embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] [background] In its Fifth Strategic Energy Plan, the Japanese government stated that it would make renewable energy the main power source in the future, and that it would work to create a market environment that can address public interest issues, such as promoting competition in the already liberalized energy market, ensuring stable supply, environmental compatibility including the promotion of renewable energy, and ensuring fairness among consumers.

[0010] As part of this initiative, with the increase in solar and wind power generation, whose output fluctuates greatly depending on natural conditions, adjustment capabilities will be needed to maintain the balance between supply and demand of electricity and prevent power outages. In addition to the adjustment capabilities of conventional large-scale power plants, adjustment capabilities will be secured by utilizing demand response (DR), which increases or decreases electricity demand. The Sixth Basic Energy Plan also continues to call for renewable energy to become the main power source in the future, and calls for the use of demand response (DR) as adjustment capabilities. As such, DR is attracting attention as an initiative that contributes to the realization of a sustainable society, given its history of being necessary as renewable energy is promoted.

[0011] DR is a system in which consumers change their electricity demand by controlling their own power generation facilities, storage facilities, and electricity consumption facilities (hereinafter collectively referred to as energy resources) in response to their electricity rate settings and incentive payments. Two typical examples of the role of DR are: one is for consumers to curb their electricity usage during peak demand times in order to secure the power capacity to maintain the power supply, and the other is for consumers to change their electricity usage patterns in order to adjust the power supply and demand in real time, which is essential for a stable power supply.

[0012] When used as a balancing capacity, DR involves an electric utility, which is obligated to stabilize the power transmission and distribution grid, issuing instructions to businesses that perform DR on target power consumption, power generation, and power saving amounts, and the businesses that receive the instructions then control their energy resources to achieve those targets. Therefore, businesses that perform DR under instructions from an electric utility must control their equipment to comply with the target power consumption, power generation, and power saving amounts instructed by the electric utility. For consumer-side equipment that is not a traditional large-scale power plant, there are facilities that are difficult to control to comply with target power consumption, power generation, and power saving amounts.

[0013] However, it is expected that even such facilities can be used as a balancing power by aggregating and controlling multiple energy resources.The entity that receives instructions from electric power companies and realizes DR by integrating and controlling multiple energy resources is called a resource aggregator.

[0014] When a resource aggregator performs DR, it is required to control energy resources to achieve the target power generation amount, target power saving amount, etc. (hereinafter referred to as command values) commanded by the electric utility. Therefore, when the resource aggregator performs integrated control of multiple energy resources to achieve the command values, a method is adopted in which a dispatch plan is created at least immediately before the integrated control begins. A dispatch plan is an operation plan that determines for all energy resources whether to start or stop energy resources and what the control settings of the energy resources should be.

[0015] Resource aggregators generally enter into contracts with electric utilities that stipulate that failure to achieve the target value will result in penalties or other disadvantages to the resource aggregator. Therefore, when resource aggregators formulate dispatch plans, it is desirable to formulate plans that achieve the target value as much as possible to avoid incurring disadvantages such as penalty fees.

[0016] When DR is used as a balancing capability, it is usually performed for the purpose of adjusting the supply and demand of electricity, so it is necessary to control the amount of power generated and the amount of power saved with a certain degree of precision. Therefore, when creating a dispatch plan under such circumstances, a method is sometimes used in which an index representing the control performance of the amount of power generated and the amount of power saved is included in the objective function and this is optimized. One example of such a technology is the technology described in Patent Document 1.

[0017] However, burdens and benefits may arise when DR is activated for energy resources, and it may be desirable to decentralize DR activation to avoid such burdens and benefits being concentrated on a few energy resources. However, it has not been possible to create a dispatch plan that takes into account the decentralization of DR activation along with the control performance of power generation and power saving amounts, and reconciles both.

[0018] Here, there is usually a trade-off between the control performance of power generation and power saving and the decentralization of DR activation. Therefore, as a way to consider both and achieve compatibility, we adopt a strategy of creating a dispatch plan that strikes a good balance. However, since what constitutes a "good balance" is expected to differ depending on the situation and the user, data representing the "good balance" to be aimed for is input from outside the invented device.

[0019] The objective function includes an index that represents the control performance of the amount of power generated and the amount of power saved, and for the dispatch planning problem that optimizes control performance, the objective function represents the "good balance" to be aimed for regarding the activation of each energy resource, and the product of a real number that changes the impact of activating an energy resource (hereinafter referred to as the penalty coefficient) and an index value that represents the frequency of activation of that energy resource is added as a penalty term that becomes effective when that energy resource is activated (however, if the objective function is formulated as a maximization problem for the dispatch planning problem, then this is subtracted rather than added).

[0020] By adding this penalty term, the value of the objective function worsens when activating an energy resource that is activated frequently, so a plan that activates an energy resource that is activated infrequently is more likely to be the optimal solution, leading to improved dispersion of DR activation.By changing the objective function as described above, it becomes possible to create a dispatch plan that takes into account not only the optimality of control performance but also the dispersion of DR activation.

[0021] The principles of the present invention have been explained above with mathematical programming-type planning problems in mind, but this is not limited to this. The technical concept also includes implementation in various simulation technologies such as artificial intelligence-type planning problems (constraint satisfaction problems, CSP).

[0022] The present invention can be applied equally to cases where each energy resource is instructed to issue a DR to reduce the amount of power consumed (a "down" DR) and cases where each energy resource is instructed to issue a DR to increase the amount of power consumed (an "up" DR). Furthermore, in the present invention, a decrease in power consumption (power reduction) is regarded as power generation and is represented by a positive value, while an increase in power consumption is represented by a negative value. In other words, the amount of power generation in the present invention means the amount of change in power consumption (a positive value indicates the amount of reduction, and a negative value indicates the amount of increase). Similarly, a command value means the amount of change in power consumption commanded by the electric utility (a positive value indicates the amount of reduction, and a negative value indicates the amount of increase).

[0023] [First embodiment] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention (hereinafter referred to as "embodiment") will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following description, common components will be given the same reference numerals, and repeated description will be omitted. Furthermore, the description of the embodiment described below does not limit the dispatch plan creation device, dispatch plan creation method, and dispatch plan creation program according to the present invention. First, the objective function of this embodiment is shown below.

[0024]

number

[0025] R is the set of energy resources r, ξr is a state value (0 = not activated, 1 = activated) indicating the activation state of the DR command for energy resource r (hereinafter referred to as the activation state of energy resource r), pr is the planned power generation amount of energy resource r (non-negative value) which is the solution to the dispatch plan to be formulated, wr is the penalty coefficient of energy resource r, nr is an index indicating the past activation frequency of the energy resource, T' is the set of time intervals t corresponding to past data, V[x] is the sample variance of x, gr,t is the actual power generation amount of energy resource r in the past time interval t, and g^r,t is the planned power generation amount of energy resource r in the past time interval t.

[0026] Equation (1) is the sum of the index "ν(r)·pr" of the control performance of energy resource r for all energy resources, using the sample variance value ν(r) normalized by the planned power generation amount g^r,t for the difference between the actual power generation amount gr,t accumulated as past data and the planned power generation amount g^r,t. The planning problem in this embodiment is formulated as a problem of determining the activation state ξr of energy resource r and the planned power generation amount pr of energy resource r so as to minimize the objective function shown in equation (1).

[0027] The dispatch plan creation device 100 of the present invention is configured to create an individual problem for each future planning interval in which a dispatch plan is to be implemented, and an objective function is constructed and solved for each planning interval.

[0028] Next, the constraint equations for the optimization problem of this embodiment are shown below.

[0029]

number

[0030] g^ is the command value from the electric power company (total power generation), prmin is the lower limit of the power generation capacity of energy resource r (a constant determined in advance based on equipment constraints), prmax is the upper limit of the power generation capacity of energy resource r (a constant determined in advance based on equipment constraints), the underscore pr is the lower limit of the planned power generation amount of energy resource r (a constant determined in advance based on operational constraints), and the bar pr is the upper limit of the planned power generation amount of energy resource r (a constant determined in advance based on operational constraints).

[0031] Equation (3) shows the constraint that the command value g^ issued by the electric utility must match the sum Σpr of the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r planned by the aggregator.

[0032] Equation (4) shows the constraint that the planned power generation amount pr is 0 when energy resource r is not activated, and must be within the upper and lower limits of the power generation capacity of energy resource r when activated. The upper limit value prmax and the lower limit value prmin are the upper and lower limits of the power generation capacity that can be demonstrated when energy resource r is activated, and are set in advance based on factors such as facility capacity. For example, if energy resource r is capable of generating 50kW to 100kW when activated, the upper limit value prmax is set to 100kW and the lower limit value prmin is set to 50kW.

[0033] Equation (5) shows that the planned power generation amount pr must be within the upper and lower limit range of the planned power generation amount of energy resource r. Regardless of whether energy resource r is activated or not, the planned power generation amount pr is limited to the range between the upper limit bar pr and the lower limit underscore pr.

[0034] For example, if energy resource r cannot be activated due to maintenance or other reasons, both the upper limit bar pr and the lower limit underscore pr are set to 0 kW. Also, if the activation of energy resource r is not specified, and energy resource r has a maximum power generation capacity of 100 kW when activated, the upper limit bar pr is set to 100 kW and the lower limit underscore pr is set to 0 kW.

[0035] Equation (6) shows a constraint that the activation state value ξr of the energy resource r must be either 1 (activated) or 0 (not activated).

[0036] [Configuration of dispatch plan creation device 100] Next, the configuration and operation of the dispatch plan creation device 100 of this embodiment will be described. Fig. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the dispatch plan creation device 100. The dispatch plan creation device 100 includes a characteristic information storage unit 1 that stores characteristic information of an energy resource r of a consumer, a plan history storage unit 2 that stores history information of the past planned power generation amount g^r,t of the energy resource r, an operation history storage unit 3 that stores past operation history information of the energy resource r, a penalty coefficient input unit 4 that accepts input of a penalty coefficient, a penalty coefficient storage unit 5 that stores the penalty coefficient, a dispatch plan creation unit 6 that creates a dispatch plan, a data input unit 7 for inputting data of the energy resource r to the dispatch plan creation device 100, and a result output unit 8 that outputs information of the created dispatch plan.

[0037] The characteristic information storage unit 1 stores characteristic information of the energy resource r that is input by, for example, a person in charge of an aggregator or a person in charge of a consumer who wishes to formulate a dispatch plan, via the data input unit 7. The characteristic information includes the name or identification information of the energy resource r, information on the power generation capacity of the energy resource r (prmin, prmax), and information on the operation schedule of the energy resource r. Note that the characteristic information may be stored for each time period.

[0038] The plan history storage unit 2 stores history information of the past planned power generation amount g^r,t of the energy resource r. The planned power generation amount g^r,t is stored in association with the name or identification information of the energy resource r and time information. Information on the planned power generation amount g^r,t may be acquired from the energy resource control system 9 that controls the energy resource r of the consumer. In addition, the dispatch plan creation device 100 may store the planned power generation amount pr of a dispatch plan created in the past for a certain plan section as the planned power generation amount g^r,t for the plan section.

[0039] The operation history storage unit 3 stores past operation history information of the energy resource r. For example, it stores operation history information acquired from the energy resource control system 9. The operation history information includes the name or identification information of the energy resource r, the actual power generation amount gr,t of the energy resource r at each time, and operation information of the energy resource r at each time (activation status, abnormal status, etc.).

[0040] The penalty coefficient input unit 4 receives an input of a penalty coefficient for the energy resource r. For example, the penalty coefficient input unit 4 receives an input of a penalty coefficient for each energy resource from a user, an external device, or the like.

[0041] The penalty coefficient storage unit 5 stores information on the penalty coefficient input by the penalty coefficient input unit 4 for each energy resource.

[0042] The dispatch plan creation unit 6 creates a dispatch plan by solving an optimization problem. Here, the dispatch plan creation unit 6 will be described with reference to FIG. 2. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the dispatch plan creation unit 6. As shown in FIG. 2, the dispatch plan creation unit 6 has an acquisition unit 61, a first index calculation unit 62, a second index calculation unit 63, a setting unit 64, an optimization problem formulation unit 65, and a solution-finding unit 66. Each unit of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 will be described below.

[0043] The acquisition unit 41 acquires the penalty coefficient. For example, the acquisition unit 41 acquires the penalty coefficient for each energy resource stored in the penalty coefficient storage unit 5.

[0044] The first index calculation unit 62 calculates an index of the control performance of the energy resource r based on the difference between the past actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount, assuming that the amount of change in the power consumption of the energy resource is the power generation amount. For example, the first index calculation unit 62 calculates a statistic for each energy resource r that represents the variance in the distribution of the difference between the past actual power generation amount gr,t and the planned power generation amount g^r,t as the index of the energy resource control performance of the energy resource r.

[0045] The second index calculation unit 63 calculates an index of the activation frequency of the energy resource based on the operation history of the energy resource. For example, the second index calculation unit 63 calculates the number of times the energy resource is activated within a predetermined period as the index of the activation frequency of the energy resource. Furthermore, the second index calculation unit 63 calculates the reciprocal of the average activation interval of the energy resource within the predetermined period as the index of the activation frequency of the energy resource.

[0046] In the above, the number of times an energy resource is activated within a predetermined period and the reciprocal of the average activation interval of the energy resource within a predetermined period are exemplified as indicators of the activation frequency of the energy resource, but the second index calculation unit 63 can also calculate, as indicators of the activation frequency of the energy resource, the median of the reciprocals of the activation intervals of the energy resource within a predetermined period, the geometric mean of the reciprocals of the activation intervals of the energy resource within a predetermined period, the sign-negated value of the average value of the activation intervals of the energy resource within a predetermined period, the sign-negated value of the median of the activation intervals of the energy resource within a predetermined period, the elapsed time since the last activation of the energy resource, the total value of the time during which the energy resource was activated within a predetermined period, the total absolute value of the amount of power generated by the activation of the energy resource within a predetermined period, etc. In addition, the predetermined period can be freely changed depending on the purpose.

[0047] The setting unit 64 sets upper and lower limit values ​​of the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created. For example, the setting unit 64 sets the upper and lower limit values ​​of the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r in the dispatch plan to be created based on the operational constraints of the energy resource r and the upper and lower limit values ​​of the power generation capacity of the energy resource r. For example, the setting unit 64 sets the upper and lower limit values ​​of the power generation capacity of the energy resource r as the upper and lower limit values ​​of the planned power generation amount pr of the energy resource r based on the operational constraint that the energy resource r must be activated at a specified date and time. Details of the processing by the setting unit 64 will be described later.

[0048] The optimization problem formulation unit 65 formulates an optimization problem for the dispatch plan. For example, the optimization problem formulation unit 65 sets at least a constraint equation that matches the command value g^ from the electric utility with the total planned power generation amount, and sets an objective function that adds together a value obtained by multiplying a control performance index for each energy resource r by a state variable ξr that indicates the activation state of each energy resource and a value obtained by multiplying a penalty coefficient wr by an index nr of the activation frequency of each energy resource by the state variable ξr, and then totals the sum for all energy resources, thereby formulating the optimization problem for the dispatch plan.

[0049] For example, the optimization problem formulation unit 65 sets the constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) for all energy resources r, and sets the objective function of equation (1) to sum, for all energy resources r, the value obtained by multiplying the control performance index ν(r)·pr by the state value ξr, plus the value obtained by multiplying the penalty coefficient wr, the activation frequency index nr, and the state value ξr. This then formulates the optimization problem of the dispatch plan.

[0050] The solution finding unit 66 finds, as a solution to the optimization problem of the dispatch plan, the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r that minimize the objective function under the conditions for which the constraint equations are set. For example, the solution finding unit 66 finds, among all possible combinations of the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr, feasible solutions (candidate solutions) that are combinations of the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr that satisfy all of the constraint equations in equations (8) to (15), and finds, as a solution to the optimization problem of the dispatch plan, a solution candidate that minimizes the objective function. Note that, as a method for solving the optimization problem, various methods can be used depending on the purpose, such as known mathematical programming methods such as the branch and bound method, and metaheuristic methods such as genetic algorithms.

[0051] [Dispatch Planning Department Processing Procedure] Next, a description will be given of an example of the operation of the dispatch plan creation unit 6. FIG.

[0052] The acquisition unit 61 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 acquires the penalty coefficient wr (step S101). Specifically, the acquisition unit 61 acquires information on the penalty coefficient for each energy resource r stored in the penalty coefficient storage unit 5.

[0053] The first index calculation unit 62 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 calculates an index of the control performance of the energy resource r for each energy resource r (step S102). Specifically, the first index calculation unit 62 acquires data on the past planned power generation amount g^r,t of the energy resource r stored in the plan history storage unit 2 and data on the past actual power generation amount gr,t of the energy resource r stored in the operation history storage unit 3.

[0054] The first index calculation unit 62 calculates, for each energy resource r, the sample variance v(r) of the value (gr,tg^r,t) / g^r,t obtained by normalizing the difference between the actual power generation amount gr,t and the planned power generation amount g^r,t in the same time interval t when the energy resource r was activated in the past by the planned power generation amount g^r,t in the time interval t as shown in equation (2).The first index calculation unit 62 then multiplies the sample variance v(r) by the planned power generation amount pr of the dispatch plan to be formulated currently, and sets the result as an index of the control performance of the energy resource r.The first index calculation unit 62 may execute the above-mentioned processing for each energy resource r.

[0055] Here, calculation of the index of control performance of an energy resource will be described with reference to FIG. 4. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of data on past planned power generation and data on actual power generation of an energy resource. "Time period" indicates the date and time when DR was activated for the energy resource. "Planned power generation" indicates the planned power generation for the energy resource. "Actual power generation" indicates the actual power generation by the energy resource. For example, in "Time period: 2020 / 4 / 1 14:00-14:30", it can be seen that "Planned power generation: 100 kW" for energy resource A is compared to "Actual power generation: 100 kW", and "Difference between planned power generation and actual power generation: 0".

[0056] Based on the data in Figure 4, the sample variance ν(r) of the difference between the actual power generation amount gr,t and the planned power generation amount g^r,t normalized by the planned power generation amount g^r,t is calculated to be 0.0025.

[0057] The second index calculation unit 63 calculates an index of the activation frequency of the energy resource r (step S103). Specifically, the second index calculation unit 63 acquires operation information for each time of the energy resource r from the operation history information stored in the operation history storage unit 3.

[0058] The second index calculation unit 63 calculates an index indicating the activation frequency of the energy resource r from the operation information for each time of the energy resource r. The second index calculation unit 63 can use, as an index, a value calculated using the number of activations of the energy resource r, the activation interval, the activation time, the elapsed time since the activation time, the amount of power generated, etc., according to the purpose.

[0059] Next, the setting unit 64 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 sets an upper limit bar pr and a lower limit underscore pr of the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r (step S104). Specifically, the setting unit 64 acquires the characteristic information of the energy resource r stored in the characteristic information storage unit 1 and the past operation history information of the energy resource r stored in the operation history storage unit 3. Then, the setting unit 64 executes the processing described in Fig. 5 based on the acquired information. Fig. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the setting unit 64 according to the first embodiment.

[0060] Energy resource r has operational constraints, such as not being able to be activated due to maintenance or breakdowns, or having to be activated at a specific date and time. The operational constraints of energy resource r in the planning section where the dispatch plan to be formulated this time is implemented can be found from the operation schedule of energy resource r included in the characteristic information.

[0061] If the acquired characteristic information indicates that the energy resource r cannot be activated in the planned section (step S201; Yes), the setting unit 64 sets both the upper limit bar pr and the lower limit underscore pr of the planned power generation amount pr of this energy resource r to 0 kW (step S202).

[0062] On the other hand, if the energy resource r can be activated (step S201; No), then the setting unit 64 determines that the energy resource r, which must continue to be activated continuously for a predetermined time (e.g., 3 hours) once activation begins in the planned section, must be activated if the interval between the latest activation start time of this energy resource r (the time it transitioned from a non-activation state to an activation state) and the start time of the planned section is less than the above-mentioned predetermined time (step S203; Yes).

[0063] Then, the setting unit 64 sets the upper limit value prmax of the power generation capacity of the energy resource r that has been determined to need to be activated as the upper limit value bar pr of the planned power generation amount pr, and sets the lower limit value prmin of the power generation capacity as the lower limit value underscore pr of the planned power generation amount pr (step S204). As described above, information on the upper limit value prmax and the lower limit value prmin of the power generation capacity of the energy resource r is included in the characteristic information.

[0064] Furthermore, for an energy resource r that does not fall under either the case of step S201 or S203, the setting unit 64 determines that activation or non-activation is possible (step S203; No). The setting unit 64 sets the upper limit value prmax of the power generation capacity of the energy resource r that has been determined to be activation or non-activation as the upper limit value bar pr of the planned power generation amount pr, and sets the lower limit underscore pr of the planned power generation amount pr to 0 kW (step S205).

[0065] The setting unit 64 may execute the process of Fig. 5 for each energy resource r. An example of setting the upper limit bar pr and the lower limit underscore pr of the planned power generation amount pr by the process of Fig. 5 is shown in Fig. 6. Fig. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the operation of the setting unit 64. Fig. 6 shows an example of setting the upper and lower limits of the planned power generation amount.

[0066] The "judgment result" is an item related to the activation of DR for energy resources. The "upper limit of planned power generation" is an item in which the upper limit of planned power generation is set. The "lower limit of planned power generation" is an item in which the lower limit of planned power generation is set. For example, the setting unit 64 sets the "upper limit of planned power generation: upper limit of power generation capacity" and the "lower limit of planned power generation: lower limit of power generation capacity" in accordance with the "judgment result: must be activated".

[0067] Returning to the explanation of Fig. 3, next, the optimization problem formulation unit 65 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 sets model constants including penalty coefficients and formulates an optimization problem for the dispatch plan (step S105). Specifically, the optimization problem formulation unit 65 acquires the command value (total power generation amount) g^ from the electric utility, the upper limit value prmax and the lower limit value prmin of the power generation capacity of the energy resource r stored in the characteristic information storage unit 1, the upper limit value bar pr and the lower limit value underscore pr of the planned power generation amount pr set by the setting unit 64, and the index v(r)·pr calculated by the first index calculation unit 62.

[0068] Then, the optimization problem formulation unit 65 sets the constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) for all energy resources r of consumers that are the target of the dispatch plan, and further sets the objective function of equation (1) which sums, for all energy resources r, the value obtained by multiplying the control performance index ν(r)·pr calculated in step S102 by the state value ξr, and the value obtained by multiplying the penalty coefficient wr, the activation frequency index nr, and the state value ξr. This allows the optimization problem of the dispatch plan to be formulated.

[0069] An example of formulation is shown below. Here, we will explain the case where the consumer's energy resource r is three energy resources A, B, and C. Also, the command value g^ from the electric utility is assumed to be 200 kW. An example of data related to energy resources A, B, and C is shown in Figure 7.

[0070] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of data used to formulate the optimization problem of the dispatch plan according to the first embodiment. "Energy resource name" indicates the name of the energy resource. "Upper limit of power generation capacity" indicates the upper limit of the power that the energy resource can generate. "Lower limit of power generation capacity" indicates the lower limit of the power that the energy resource can generate. "Upper limit of planned power generation amount" indicates the upper limit of the planned power generation amount for each energy resource. "Lower limit of planned power generation amount" indicates the lower limit of the planned power generation amount for each energy resource. "Utility index value" indicates an index of the control performance for each energy resource. "Penalty coefficient" indicates the penalty coefficient for energy resource r. "Activation frequency index" indicates an index of the activation frequency for each energy resource.

[0071] For example, the data for energy resource A is "Upper limit of power generation capacity: 100kW," "Lower limit of power generation capacity: 100kW," "Upper limit of planned power generation: 100kW," "Lower limit of planned power generation: 100kW," "Utility index value: 0.0025," "Penalty coefficient: 0," and "Activation frequency index: 10."

[0072] If the state values ​​of energy resources A, B, and C are ξA, ξB, and ξC, and the planned power generation amounts of energy resources A, B, and C are pA, pB, and pC, respectively, the objective function is expressed as in equation (7). 0.0025·ξA·pA+0·10·ξA+0·ξB·pB+0.1·0·ξB+0.0009·ξC·pC+0.3·30·ξC ···(7)

[0073] The constraint equation corresponding to equation (3) is given by equation (8). pA+pB+pC=200 (8)

[0074] The constraint equations corresponding to equation (4) are as shown in equations (9) to (11). ξA·100≦pA≦ξA·100 (9) ξB·50≦pB≦ξB·100 (10) ξC·80≦pC≦ξC·100 (11)

[0075] The constraint equations corresponding to equation (5) are as shown in equations (12) to (14). 100≦pA≦100 (12) 0≦pB≦100 (13) 0≦pC≦100 (14)

[0076] The constraint equation corresponding to equation (6) is given by equation (15). ξA,ξB,ξC∈{0,1} ···(15)

[0077] Next, the solution-finding unit 43 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 finds, as a solution to the optimization problem, the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r that minimize the objective function of equation (7) under the conditions in which the constraint equations of equations (8) to (15) are set (step S106 in FIG. 3).

[0078] Among all possible combinations of the state value ξr (ξA, ξB, ξC) and the planned power generation amount pr (pA, pB, pC), there are three feasible solutions, which are combinations of the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr that satisfy all the constraints in equations (8) to (15): Solution Candidate 1 to Solution Candidate 3, as follows:

[0079] Candidate solution 1 is ξA=1, ξB=1, ξC=0, pA=100, pB=100, pC=0, candidate solution 2 is ξA=1, ξB=0, ξC=1, pA=100, pB=0, pC=100, and candidate solution 3 is ξA=0, ξB=1, ξC=1, pA=0, pB=100, pC=100. The value of the objective function for candidate solution 1 is 1.25, the value of the objective function for candidate solution 2 is 9.34, and the value of the objective function for candidate solution 3 is 10.09. Therefore, the candidate solution that minimizes the objective function is candidate solution 1, and candidate solution 1 is the optimal solution.

[0080] The result output unit 8 of the dispatch plan creation device 100 outputs information about the dispatch plan created by the dispatch plan creation unit 6. The dispatch plan information includes a state value ξr for each energy resource r, a planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r, and date and time information for the planned section. Examples of output methods include displaying the dispatch plan and transmitting the dispatch plan to an external device.

[0081] In this embodiment, an example of creating a dispatch plan for one planned section is described, but when creating a dispatch plan for multiple planned sections, the above processing can be performed for each planned section.

[0082] [effect] The dispatch plan creation device 100 according to the embodiment includes: a first index calculation unit 62 configured to calculate an index of the control performance of the energy resource based on the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount, with the change in power consumption of the energy resource being the power generation amount; a second index calculation unit 63 configured to calculate an index of the activation frequency of the energy resource based on the operation history of the energy resource; an optimization problem formulation unit 65 configured to set at least a constraint equation that makes the command value from the electric utility match the total planned power generation amount, and to formulate an optimization problem of the dispatch plan by setting an objective function that adds together a value obtained by multiplying the index of the control performance of the energy resource by a state variable indicating the activation state of the energy resource and a value obtained by multiplying the index of the activation frequency of the energy resource by a penalty coefficient indicating the balance between the index of the control performance and the index of the activation frequency of the energy resource and the state variable, and totaling the values ​​for all the energy resources; and a solution finding unit 66 configured to find, as a solution to the optimization problem of the dispatch plan, a state value that is the value of the state variable for each energy resource and the planned power generation amount that minimizes the objective function value under the constraint equation.

[0083] As a result, the dispatch plan creation device 100 can create a dispatch plan that achieves the command values ​​from the electric utility and strikes a good balance between the control performance of energy resources and the decentralization of their activation.

[0084] The dispatch plan creation device 100 according to the embodiment further includes a setting unit 64 configured to set upper and lower limits of planned power generation for each energy resource in a dispatch plan to be created based on operational constraints of the energy resource and upper and lower limits of the power generation capacity of the energy resource, and the optimization problem formulation unit 65 sets a constraint equation for the optimization problem of the dispatch plan based on the command value, the upper and lower limits of the power generation capacity of the energy resource, and the upper and lower limits of the planned power generation set by the setting unit 64. In this way, the dispatch plan creation device 100 can appropriately set the upper and lower limits of planned power generation for each energy resource and set a constraint equation for the optimization problem of the dispatch plan.

[0085] The first index calculation unit 62 of the dispatch plan creation device 100 according to the embodiment uses, as an index of the control performance of the energy resource, a statistic for each energy resource that indicates the variance in the distribution of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when the energy resource issued a demand response command in the past. This enables the dispatch plan creation device 100 to create a dispatch plan that balances the control performance of the energy resource and the decentralization of its activation while reflecting the variance in the distribution of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount in the control performance.

[0086] The second index calculation unit 63 of the dispatch plan creation device 100 according to the embodiment uses the number of times an energy resource is activated as an index of the activation frequency of the energy resource. The second index calculation unit 63 also uses the elapsed time since the last activation of the energy resource as an index of the activation frequency of the energy resource. As a result, the dispatch plan creation device 100 can create a dispatch plan that achieves a good balance between the control performance of the energy resource and the decentralization of activation by using an index that reflects the number of activations or the elapsed time since the last activation in the activation frequency.

[0087] [Second embodiment] In the first embodiment, the planned power generation amount pr is a non-negative value. That is, only a decreasing DR that reduces the amount of power consumption is possible. In contrast, in the second embodiment of the present invention, in order to make it possible to instruct each energy resource r to issue a DR that increases the amount of power consumption (an increasing DR), the following equation is used instead of the objective function of equation (1) described in the first embodiment.

[0088]

number

[0089] When the energy resource r performs an increase DR to increase the amount of power consumption, the planned power generation amount pr in equation (16) becomes a negative value. The first index calculation unit 62 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 of this embodiment calculates the index of the control performance of the energy resource r by multiplying the variance v(r) described in the first embodiment by the absolute value |pr| of the planned power generation amount pr of the dispatch plan to be formulated this time.

[0090] The optimization problem formulation unit 65 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 of this embodiment, as in the first embodiment, sets constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) for all energy resources r of consumers that are the target of the dispatch plan, and further sets an objective function of equation (16) that sums, for all energy resources r, the value obtained by multiplying the control performance index v(r)·|pr| calculated in step S102 by the state value ξr, and the value obtained by multiplying the penalty coefficient wr, the activation frequency index nr, and the state value ξr. This formulates the optimization problem of the dispatch plan.

[0091] [effect] The dispatch plan creation device 100 of this embodiment can create a dispatch plan that balances the control performance of the energy resource and the decentralization of its activation, even when the energy resource r performs an upward DR that increases the amount of power consumption.

[0092] [Third embodiment] In the first embodiment, the index of control performance is the value obtained by multiplying the variance v(r) of the difference between the actual power generation amount gr,t and the planned power generation amount g^r,t by the planned power generation amount pr in the dispatch plan, and in the second embodiment, the index of control performance is the value obtained by multiplying the variance v(r) by the absolute value |pr| of the planned power generation amount pr. Meanwhile, in the third embodiment of the present invention, the following equation is used instead of the objective function of equation (1) described in the first embodiment.

[0093]

number

[0094] The first index calculation unit 62 of this embodiment calculates, for each energy resource, the absolute value of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a DR command was issued for the energy resource in the past, finds the maximum value of the absolute values ​​of the differences for each energy resource, and uses the value obtained by multiplying the maximum value by the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

[0095] For example, the first index calculation unit 62 calculates the absolute value ADr,t=|gr,tg^r,t| of the difference between the actual power generation amount gr,t and the planned power generation amount g^r,t in the same time interval t when the energy resource r was activated in the past, for each time interval t and for each energy resource r, and obtains the maximum value max(ADr,t) of the absolute values ​​ADr,t for each time interval t for each energy resource r. Then, the index calculation unit 40 multiplies the maximum value max(ADr,t) by the planned power generation amount pr of the dispatch plan to be formulated currently, and sets the value obtained by multiplying the maximum value max(ADr,t) by the planned power generation amount pr of the dispatch plan to be formulated currently as an index of the control performance of the energy resource r.

[0096] The optimization problem formulation unit 65 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 of this embodiment, as in the first embodiment, sets constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) for all energy resources r of consumers that are the target of the dispatch plan, and further sets an objective function of equation (17) that sums, for all energy resources r, the value obtained by multiplying the index max(ADr,t)·pr calculated in step S102 by the state value ξr, and the value obtained by multiplying the penalty coefficient wr, the activation frequency index nr, and the state value ξr. This formulates the optimization problem of the dispatch plan.

[0097] The solution-finding unit 43 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 of this embodiment finds, as a solution to the optimization problem, the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r that minimizes the objective function of equation (17) under the conditions in which the constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) are set.

[0098] Other configurations are the same as those of the first embodiment. As in the second embodiment, the value obtained by multiplying the maximum value max(ADr,t) by the absolute value |pr| of the planned power generation amount pr in the dispatch plan to be formulated this time may be used as an index of control performance.

[0099] [effect] The first index calculation unit 62 of the dispatch plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment calculates, for each energy resource, the absolute value of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past, finds the maximum value of the absolute values ​​of the differences for each energy resource, and multiplies the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created by the maximum value as an index of the control performance of the energy resource. As a result, the dispatch plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment can create a dispatch plan that balances the control performance of the energy resource and the decentralization of the activation, while reflecting the maximum value of the error in the power generation amount when the DR of the energy resource was issued in the past in the control performance.

[0100] [Fourth embodiment] Next, a fourth embodiment of the present invention will be described. In the fourth embodiment of the present invention, the following equation is used instead of the objective function of equation (1) described in the first embodiment.

[0101]

number

[0102] The first index calculation unit 62 of this embodiment calculates, for each time interval and for each energy resource, the absolute value of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past, calculates, for each energy resource, a first number of times when the absolute value of the difference exceeded a predetermined percentage of the planned power generation amount in the time interval for which this absolute value was calculated, calculates the result of dividing the first number of times by the second number of times when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource, and multiplies the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created by the result of this division to use the result as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

[0103] For example, the first index calculation unit 62 calculates the absolute value ADr,t = |gr,tg^r,t| of the difference between the actual power generation amount gr,t and the planned power generation amount g^r,t in the same time interval t when the energy resource r was activated in the past, for each time interval t and for each energy resource r, calculates the number of times Nr that the absolute value of the difference ADr,t exceeded a predetermined percentage (e.g., 10%) of the planned power generation amount g^r,t in the time interval t for which this absolute value ADr,t was calculated, and calculates Nr / N1r for each energy resource r by dividing the number of times Nr by the number of times N1r that the energy resource r was activated.

[0104] The number of times N1r is the number of times the state value ξr of the energy resource r becomes 1 (activated). Then, the index calculation unit 40 multiplies the division result Nr / N1r by the planned power generation amount pr of the dispatch plan to be formulated this time, and sets the resulting value as an index of the control performance of the energy resource r.

[0105] The optimization problem formulation unit 65 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 of this embodiment, as in the first embodiment, sets constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) for all energy resources r of consumers that are the target of the dispatch plan, and further sets an objective function of equation (18) that sums, for all energy resources r, the value obtained by multiplying the index Nr / N1r·pr calculated in step S102 by the state value ξr, and the value obtained by multiplying the penalty coefficient wr, the activation frequency index nr, and the state value ξr. This formulates the optimization problem of the dispatch plan.

[0106] The solution-finding unit 43 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 of this embodiment finds, as a solution to the optimization problem, the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r that minimize the objective function of equation (18) under the conditions in which the constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) are set.

[0107] Other configurations are the same as those of the first embodiment. As in the second embodiment, the value obtained by multiplying Nr / N1r by the absolute value |pr| of the planned power generation amount pr in the dispatch plan to be formulated this time may be used as an index of control performance.

[0108] [effect] The first index calculation unit 62 of the dispatch plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment calculates, for each time interval and for each energy resource, the absolute value of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past, calculates, for each energy resource, a first number of times that the absolute value of the difference exceeded a predetermined percentage of the planned power generation amount in the time interval for which this absolute value was calculated, divides the first number of times by a second number of times that a demand response command was issued to the energy resource, calculates the result for each energy resource, and multiplies the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created by the result of this division, and uses the result as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

[0109] As a result, the dispatch plan creation device 100 of this embodiment can create a dispatch plan that balances the control performance of the energy resource and the decentralization of activation, while reflecting in the control performance the percentage by which the error in the power generation amount in the past DR activation of the energy resource exceeded a predetermined percentage of the planned power generation amount.

[0110] [Fifth embodiment] Next, a fifth embodiment of the present invention will be described. The fifth embodiment relates to calculation of a control performance index by artificial intelligence (AI) using a learning model constructed by learning data. FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a dispatch plan creation device 100 according to the fifth embodiment. The dispatch plan creation device 100 of this embodiment includes a characteristic information storage unit 1, a plan history storage unit 2, an operation history storage unit 3, a penalty coefficient input unit 4, a penalty coefficient storage unit 5, a dispatch plan creation unit 6, a data input unit 7, a result output unit 8, an external environment data acquisition unit 11, an external environment data storage unit 12, and an environment data acquisition unit 13.

[0111] The environmental data in this embodiment includes the temperature, humidity, weather, solar radiation, rainfall, etc., which are the external environment of the energy system, as well as characteristic information and operation information of the energy resources (facilities), which are the internal environment of the energy system. Note that the following explanation will be given taking the external environment as an example.

[0112] The external environment data acquisition unit 11 acquires external environment data (actual measured values) and forecast values ​​of external environment data from an external environment data providing system (for example, a weather forecast system) and stores them in the external environment data storage unit 12. The external environment data storage unit 12 stores the data acquired by the external environment data acquisition unit 11.

[0113] The environmental data acquisition unit 13 acquires past environmental data of the energy resource and the values ​​of the environmental data in the planning section in which the dispatch plan to be created is to be implemented. For example, the environmental data acquisition unit 13 acquires past external environmental data and forecast values ​​of the external environmental data in the planning section in which the dispatch plan is to be implemented from the external environmental data storage unit 10. Note that, when using internal environmental data, the environmental data acquisition unit 13 may acquire characteristic information of the energy resource r from the characteristic information storage unit 1 and acquire operation history information of the energy resource r from the operation history storage unit 3.

[0114] The processing flow of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 is the same as that in the first embodiment, so the operation of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 will be described using the flowchart in Fig. 3. A first index calculation unit 62 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 calculates an index of control performance for each energy resource r.

[0115] The first index calculation unit 62 uses data on the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past and the environmental data that was the subject of the calculation of the difference data as learning data, substitutes the learning data into a relational equation between the difference data and the environmental data to calculate model parameter values ​​of the relational equation, substitutes the model parameter values ​​of the relational equation and the values ​​of the environmental data into the relational equation to calculate an estimated value, and uses the value obtained by multiplying the estimated value by the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

[0116] The processing of the first index calculation unit 62 in this embodiment will be described using Fig. 10. Fig. 10 is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the first index calculation unit 62. First, the first index calculation unit 62 acquires data on the past planned power generation amount g^r,t of the energy resource r stored in the plan history storage unit 2 and data on the past actual power generation amount gr,t of the energy resource r stored in the operation history storage unit 3. Furthermore, the first index calculation unit 62 acquires past external environment data xr,d and a forecast value xr,d of the external environment data via the environmental data acquisition unit 13 (step S301).

[0117] Note that the external environment data xr,d, bar xr,d indicates the value of item d (d is an integer equal to or greater than 1) of the external environment data of the energy resource r, and indicates that there are one or more types of external environment data. In this embodiment, the external environment data of d=1 is temperature data, and the external environment data of d=2 is solar radiation data.

[0118] Next, the first index calculation unit 62 uses the data of the difference Δpr=gr,tg^r,t between the actual power generation amount gr,t and the planned power generation amount g^r,t in the same time interval t when the energy resource r was activated in the past, and the external environment data xr,d in the time interval t for which the difference Δpr was calculated, as learning data, and substitutes the learning data for multiple time intervals t into equation (19) which shows the linear relationship between the difference Δpr and the external environment data xr,d, and calculates the linear constants (slope ar,d and intercept br) using the least squares method (step S302).

[0119]

number

[0120] As described in the first embodiment, R is a set of energy resources r. Next, the first index calculation unit 62 calculates an estimated value Δpr of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount by substituting the calculated constants (slope a,d, intercept b) and the forecast value xr,d of the external environment data in the planning section where the dispatch plan is implemented in the area where the energy resource r is installed into equation (20) which shows the linear relationship between the estimated value Δpr of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount in the planning section and the forecast value xr,d of the external environment data (step S303).

[0121]

number

[0122] Then, the first index calculation unit 62 multiplies the estimated value Δpr by the planned power generation amount pr of the dispatch plan to be formulated this time, and sets the resulting value as an index of the control performance of the energy resource r with respect to the past dispatch plan (step S304 in FIG. 10). The first index calculation unit 62 may execute the above-described process for each energy resource r.

[0123] An example of the operation of the first index calculation unit 62 is shown below. Fig. 10 is a diagram showing an example of data on past actual power generation, data on planned power generation, temperature data, and solar radiation data of an energy resource. Fig. 10 shows an example of data on past actual power generation gr,t, data on planned power generation g^r,t, data on temperature xr,1, and data on solar radiation xr,2 of energy resource A. "Time period" indicates the date and time when DR was invoked for the energy resource. "Actual power generation" indicates the actual power generation by the energy resource. "Planned power generation" indicates the planned power generation for the energy resource. "Actual environmental data value (temperature)" indicates the actual measured value of temperature data. "Actual environmental data value (solar radiation)" indicates the actual measured value of solar radiation data.

[0124] Based on the data in Figure 10, the slope ar,d and intercept br of equation (19) were calculated using the least squares method, resulting in ar,1 = 0.1, ar,2 = 0.01, and br = 0. Substituting ar,1 = 0.1, ar,2 = 0.01, and br = 0 as constants into equation (20), the following equation is obtained.

[0125]

number

[0126] xr,1 is the forecast value of the temperature in the planned section, and xr,2 is the forecast value of the solar radiation in the planned section. The value obtained by multiplying the estimated value Δpr obtained from equation (21) by the planned power generation amount pr is used as an index of the control performance of energy resource r.

[0127] The optimization problem formulation unit 65 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 sets constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) for all energy resources r of consumers that are the targets of the dispatch plan, as in the first embodiment, and further sets an objective function of equation (22) that sums, for all energy resources r, the value obtained by multiplying the indicator Δpr·pr calculated in step S303 by the state value ξr, and the value obtained by multiplying the penalty coefficient wr, the activation frequency index nr, and the state value ξr. This formulates the optimization problem of the dispatch plan.

[0128]

number

[0129] Next, the solution-finding unit 66 of the dispatch plan creation unit 6 finds, as a solution to the optimization problem, the state value ξr and the planned power generation amount pr for each energy resource r that minimizes the objective function of equation (22) under the conditions in which the constraint equations of equations (3) to (6) are set.

[0130] Other configurations are the same as those of the first embodiment. As in the second embodiment, the value obtained by multiplying the indicator bar Δpr·pr by the absolute value |pr| of the planned power generation amount pr in the dispatch plan to be formulated this time may be used as an indicator of control performance.

[0131] [effect] The dispatch plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment further includes an environmental data acquisition unit 13 configured to acquire past environmental data of the energy resources and values ​​of the environmental data in the plan section in which the dispatch plan to be created is to be implemented. The first index calculation unit 62 uses data on the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past and the environmental data that was the subject of calculation of the difference data as learning data, substitutes the learning data into a relational equation between the difference data and the environmental data to calculate model parameter values ​​of the relational equation, substitutes the model parameter values ​​of the relational equation and the values ​​of the environmental data into the relational equation to calculate an estimated value, and uses the value obtained by multiplying the estimated value by the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

[0132] As a result, the dispatch plan creation device 100 of this embodiment can create a dispatch plan that balances the control performance of energy resources and the decentralization of their activation, while reflecting the parameters estimated by the AI ​​that has learned environmental data in the control performance.

[0133] [Hardware configuration] The dispatch plan creation device 100 according to each embodiment described above is realized, for example, by a computer 1000 having a configuration as shown in Fig. 12. Fig. 12 is a hardware configuration diagram showing an example of a computer that realizes the functions of the dispatch plan creation device 100. The computer 1000 has a configuration in which a CPU 1100, a RAM 1200, a ROM 1300, an auxiliary storage device 1400, a communication I / F (interface) 1500, and an input / output I / F (interface) 1600 are connected by a bus 1800.

[0134] The CPU 1100 operates and controls each unit based on programs stored in the ROM 1300 or the auxiliary storage device 1400. The ROM 1300 stores a boot program executed by the CPU 1100 when the computer 1000 starts up, programs that depend on the hardware of the computer 1000, and the like.

[0135] The auxiliary storage device 1400 stores programs executed by the CPU 1100, data used by the programs, etc. The communication I / F 1500 receives data from other devices via a predetermined communication network and sends it to the CPU 1100, and transmits data generated by the CPU 1100 to other devices via the predetermined communication network.

[0136] The CPU 1100 controls output devices such as a display and a printer, and input / output devices 1700 such as a keyboard and a mouse, via the input / output I / F 1600. The CPU 1100 acquires data from the input / output device 1700 via the input / output I / F 1600. The CPU 1100 also outputs generated data to the input / output device 1700 via the input / output I / F 1600.

[0137] For example, when the computer 1000 functions as the dispatch plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment, the CPU 1100 of the computer 1000 executes a program loaded onto the RAM 1200 to realize the functions of the control unit 130.

[0138] (others〕 Although various embodiments have been described in detail herein with reference to the drawings, these embodiments are merely examples and are not intended to limit the present invention. The features described herein can be realized in various ways, including various modifications and improvements based on the knowledge of those skilled in the art.

[0139] Furthermore, the above-mentioned "module (-er suffix, -or suffix)" can be read as a unit, means, circuit, etc. For example, a communication module, a control module, and a storage module can be read as a communication unit, a control unit, and a storage unit, respectively. [Explanation of symbols]

[0140] 1...characteristic information storage unit, 2...plan history storage unit, 3...operation history storage unit, 4...penalty coefficient input unit, 5...penalty coefficient storage unit, 6...dispatch plan creation unit, 7...data input unit, 8...result output unit, 9...energy resource control system, 11...external environment data acquisition unit, 12...external environment data storage unit, 13...environmental data acquisition unit, 61...acquisition unit, 62...first index calculation unit, 63...second index calculation unit, 64...setting unit, 65...optimization problem formulation unit, 66...solution finding unit

Claims

1. a first index calculation unit configured to calculate an index of control performance of the energy resource based on a difference between a past actual power generation amount and a planned power generation amount, where the amount of change in power consumption of the energy resource is the power generation amount; a second index calculation unit configured to calculate an index of an activation frequency of the energy resource based on an operation history of the energy resource; an optimization problem formulation unit configured to at least set a constraint equation that matches a command value from an electric utility company with the total planned power generation amount, and set an objective function that adds a value obtained by multiplying an index of control performance of the energy resource by a state variable that indicates an activation state of the energy resource, and a value obtained by multiplying an index of activation frequency of the energy resource by a penalty coefficient that indicates a balance between the index of control performance of the energy resource and an index of activation frequency of the energy resource by the state variable, and totals the sum for all energy resources, to formulate an optimization problem for the dispatch plan; a solution unit configured to find, as a solution to an optimization problem of a dispatch plan, a state value, which is a value of a state variable for each energy resource, and a planned power generation amount, which minimizes the value of the objective function under the constraint equation; A dispatch plan creation device comprising:

2. a setting unit configured to set upper and lower limits of planned power generation amounts for each of the energy resources in the dispatch plan to be created based on operational constraints of the energy resources and upper and lower limits of power generation capacities of the energy resources; The optimization problem formulation unit sets a constraint equation for an optimization problem of a dispatch plan based on the command value, upper and lower limit values ​​of the power generation capacity of the energy resource, and upper and lower limit values ​​of the planned power generation amount set by the setting unit.

2. The dispatch plan creating device according to claim 1.

3. The first index calculation unit A statistic for each energy resource, which indicates the variance in the distribution of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past, is used as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

2. The dispatch plan creating device according to claim 1.

4. The first index calculation unit The absolute value of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past is calculated for each energy resource, the maximum value of the absolute values ​​of the differences is obtained for each energy resource, and the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created is multiplied by the maximum value, and the resulting value is used as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

4. The dispatch plan creating device according to claim 3.

5. The first index calculation unit An absolute value of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past is calculated for each time interval and for each energy resource, a first number of times that the absolute value of the difference exceeded a predetermined ratio of the planned power generation amount in the time interval for which the absolute value was calculated is calculated for each energy resource, the first number of times is divided by a second number of times that a demand response command was issued to the energy resource, and the result is calculated for each energy resource, and the value obtained by multiplying the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created by the result of the division is used as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

2. The dispatch plan creating device according to claim 1.

6. An environmental data acquisition unit configured to acquire past environmental data of the energy resource and values ​​of the environmental data in a planning section in which the dispatch plan to be created is to be implemented, The first index calculation unit uses data of the difference between the actual power generation amount and the planned power generation amount when a demand response command was issued to the energy resource in the past and environmental data that was the subject of calculation of the difference data as learning data, substitutes the learning data into a relational expression between the difference data and the environmental data to calculate model parameter values ​​of the relational expression, substitutes the model parameter values ​​of the relational expression and values ​​of the environmental data into the relational expression to calculate estimated values, and uses a value obtained by multiplying the estimated value by the planned power generation amount for each energy resource in the dispatch plan to be created as an index of the control performance of the energy resource.

2. The dispatch plan creating device according to claim 1.

7. The second index calculation unit is characterized in that it uses the number of times of activation of the energy resource as an index of activation frequency of the energy resource. The dispatch plan creation device according to claim 1 .

8. The second index calculation unit is characterized in that it uses the elapsed time from the time when the energy resource was last activated as an index of the activation frequency of the energy resource. The dispatch plan creation device according to claim 1 .

9. A dispatch plan creation method executed by a dispatch plan creation device, comprising: a first index calculation step configured to calculate an index of control performance of the energy resource based on a difference between a past actual power generation amount and a planned power generation amount, where the amount of change in power consumption of the energy resource is the power generation amount; a second index calculation step configured to calculate an index of an activation frequency of the energy resource based on the operation history of the energy resource; an optimization problem formulation step configured to formulate an optimization problem for the dispatch plan by setting at least a constraint equation that matches a command value from the electric utility company with the total planned power generation amount, and setting an objective function that adds a value obtained by multiplying an index of control performance of the energy resource by a state variable that indicates the activation state of the energy resource, and a value obtained by multiplying an index of activation frequency of the energy resource by a penalty coefficient that indicates the balance between the index of control performance of the energy resource and an index of activation frequency of the energy resource by the state variable, and summing the results for all energy resources; a solving step configured to find, as a solution to the optimization problem of the dispatch plan, state values, which are values ​​of state variables for each energy resource, and planned power generation amounts, which minimize the value of the objective function under the constraint equation; A dispatch plan creation method comprising:

10. a first index calculation step configured to calculate an index of control performance of the energy resource based on a difference between a past actual power generation amount and a planned power generation amount, where the amount of change in power consumption of the energy resource is defined as a power generation amount; a second index calculation step configured to calculate an index of an activation frequency of the energy resource based on the operation history of the energy resource; an optimization problem formulation step configured to set at least a constraint equation that matches a command value from an electric utility company with the total planned power generation amount, and set an objective function that adds a value obtained by multiplying an index of control performance of the energy resource by a state variable that indicates the activation state of the energy resource, and a value obtained by multiplying an index of activation frequency of the energy resource by a penalty coefficient that indicates the balance between the index of control performance of the energy resource and an index of activation frequency of the energy resource by the state variable, and sums the values ​​for all energy resources, thereby formulating an optimization problem for the dispatch plan; a solving step configured to find, as a solution to the optimization problem of the dispatch plan, state values, which are values ​​of state variables for each energy resource, and planned power generation amounts, which minimize the value of the objective function under the constraint equation; A dispatch plan creation program that causes a computer to execute the above.

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