Power generation prediction device and power generation prediction method

Abstract

To provide a power generation amount prediction device capable of predicting a power generation amount in a hydraulic power plant facility of free flowing type with high accuracy, and a power generation amount prediction method.SOLUTION: A power generation amount prediction device predicts a power generation amount in a free flowing type hydraulic power generation facility which generates power by water in a water channel taken in from a water intake port, and includes: an increased amount of water calculation part which obtains an increased amount of water at a first point of time at the water intake port by using an amount of rainfall in a basin of a water channel up to a second point of time traced from the first point of time when a power generation amount is predicted just for a predetermined time; a water intake amount calculation part which obtains a water intake amount to be an amount of water taken in from the water intake port at the first point of time by using the increased amount of water; and a power generation amount calculation part which obtains a power generation amount at the first point of time from the water intake amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an electric power generation prediction device and an electric power generation prediction method. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, systems called CEMS (Community Energy Management Systems) have been introduced to realize the "visualization" of energy in local areas. This CEMS is a system that manages the amount of power supply from power generation facilities (for example, solar power plants and hydroelectric power plants) scattered throughout the area, and the amount of power demand in the area. With such a CEMS, it is extremely important to accurately forecast the amount of power supply and demand in the entire area.

[0003] The following non-patent documents 1 and 2 disclose methods for predicting the amount of power generated (output) at run-of-river hydroelectric power plants. Specifically, the methods disclosed in the following non-patent documents 1 and 2 use a Kalman filter tank model to enable stable prediction of the amount of power throughout the four seasons. Note that run-of-river hydroelectric power plants are power plants that do not have a water storage facility and generate power by drawing river water directly into the power plant. [Prior art documents] [Non-patent literature]

[0004] [Non-Patent Document 1] Kenta Ohto and 3 others, "Prediction of hydroelectric power output by Kalman filter tank model", IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 128, No. 9, 2008, pp. 1091-1098 [Non-Patent Document 2] Kenta Ohto, "Prediction of output of run-of-river hydroelectric power generation for the next day according to rainfall", Operations Research, October issue, 2013, Vol. 58, No. 10, pp. 581-586 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] Incidentally, in the above-mentioned run-of-river hydroelectric power plants, river water is drawn directly into the power plant, and so is directly affected by the state of the river (rich or drought). For example, when there is a lot of water in the river due to rainfall or the like (rich water), the amount of electricity generated is high, and when there is little water in the river due to drought or the like (drought), the amount of electricity generated is low. As such, the amount of electricity generated in run-of-river hydroelectric power plants is greatly affected by weather conditions, which creates the problem that it is difficult to accurately predict the amount of electricity generated.

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned circumstances, and aims to provide a power generation prediction device and a power generation prediction method that are capable of predicting the power generation amount in a flow-type hydroelectric power plant facility with high accuracy. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] In order to solve the above problem, a power generation prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention is a power generation prediction device (1) that predicts the power generation in a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility (PL) that generates power using water taken in a waterway (RV) from an intake (WI), and includes: a water increase calculation unit (21) that calculates the water increase (Q1) at the intake at a first time point (t30) for which the power generation is predicted, using the amount of rainfall (Xn) in the waterway basin from the first time point (t30) to a second time point (t10) that is a predetermined period (T) back; a water intake calculation unit (22) that uses the water increase to calculate the water intake volume (Q), which is the amount of water taken in from the intake at the first time point; and a power generation calculation unit (23) that calculates the power generation volume (P) at the first time point from the water intake volume.

[0008] In addition, in one embodiment of the power generation prediction device of the present invention, the water level rise calculation unit calculates the water level rise by accumulating values ​​that are exponentially damped based on the length from each time point to the first time point, the amount of precipitation at each time point between the first time point and the second time point.

[0009] In addition, in a power generation prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention, the water intake is provided at a position where it can take in water blocked by a dam (DM) provided in the waterway, and the water intake calculation unit calculates the water intake volume as the water volume (Q4) obtained by subtracting the volume of water overflowing from the dam from the water volume obtained by adding the base water volume (Q2), which is the water volume in the waterway when there is no rainfall, to the water rise volume.

[0010] In addition, in a power generation prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention, the base water volume is represented by a function in which the water volume exponentially decreases over time, and the water intake volume calculation unit sets the base water volume to an initial value each time the power generation volume at the hydroelectric power plant equipment reaches a predetermined maximum power generation volume.

[0011] Moreover, the power generation prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a power generation correction unit (24) that, when the first time point arrives and the actual power generation amount (Pr) is obtained, calculates an error (Δ) between the predicted power generation amount (P) and the actually obtained power generation amount, and corrects the amount of power predicted at the newly set first time point using the error when predicting the power generation amount.

[0012] The power generation prediction device according to an aspect of the present invention further includes an acquisition unit (15) that acquires the amount of rainfall in the watershed of the waterway and the amount of power generation in the hydroelectric power plant facility.

[0013] The power generation amount prediction device according to an aspect of the present invention further includes an output unit (12) that outputs the power generation amount predicted at the first time point.

[0014] A power generation prediction method according to one embodiment of the present invention is a power generation prediction method for predicting the power generation in a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility (PL) that generates power using water taken in from a water channel (RV) through a water intake (WI), and includes a water increase calculation step (S11) for calculating the amount of water increase (Q1) at the water intake at a first time point (t30) for which the power generation is predicted, using the amount of rainfall (Xn) in the water channel basin from the first time point (t30) to a second time point (t10) that is a predetermined period (T) back, a water intake calculation step (S12) for calculating the water intake amount (Q), which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake at the first time point, using the water increase amount, and a power generation calculation step (S13) for calculating the power generation amount (P) at the first time point from the water intake amount.

[0015] In addition, in one embodiment of the power generation prediction method of the present invention, the water level increase calculation step is a step of calculating the water level increase by accumulating values ​​of precipitation at each point in time between the first point in time and the second point in time, which are exponentially attenuated according to the length from each point in time to the first point in time.

[0016] In addition, in a power generation prediction method according to one embodiment of the present invention, the water intake is provided at a position where it can take in water blocked by a dam (DM) provided in the waterway, and the water intake volume calculation step is a step of determining the water intake volume (Q4) obtained by subtracting the water volume overflowing from the dam from the water volume obtained by adding the base water volume (Q2), which is the water volume of the waterway in the absence of rainfall, and the increased water volume.

[0017] In addition, in a power generation prediction method according to one embodiment of the present invention, the base water volume is represented by a function in which the water volume exponentially decreases over time, and the water intake volume calculation step is a step of setting the base water volume to an initial value each time the power generation volume at the hydroelectric power plant equipment reaches a predetermined maximum power generation volume.

[0018] Moreover, the power generation prediction method according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a power generation correction step (S14) for, when the first time point arrives and the actual power generation amount (Pr) is obtained, calculating an error (Δ) between the predicted power generation amount (P) and the actually obtained power generation amount, and correcting the amount of power predicted at the first time point newly set for predicting the power generation amount using the error.

[0019] Moreover, the power generation prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention includes an acquisition step of acquiring the amount of rainfall in a watershed of the waterway and the amount of power generation in the hydroelectric power plant facility.

[0020] The power generation amount prediction method according to an aspect of the present invention further includes an output step (S15) of outputting the power generation amount predicted at the first time point. Effect of the Invention

[0021] According to the present invention, it is possible to predict the amount of power generated in a flow-through hydroelectric power plant facility with high accuracy. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0022] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an overview of a flow-through hydroelectric power plant. [Diagram 2] 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a main part of a power generation prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Diagram 3] 3 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a power generation prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 4] 11 is a diagram for explaining the processing performed in the water rise calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. [Diagram 5] 1 is a diagram showing an example of a water increase amount calculated by a water increase amount calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention; FIG. [Figure 6] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of a predicted value obtained in one embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0023] Hereinafter, a detailed description will be given of an apparatus and method for predicting power generation amount according to an embodiment of the present invention with reference to the drawings. First, an overview of the embodiment of the present invention will be described, and then each embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail.

[0024] 〔overview〕 An embodiment of the present invention makes it possible to predict the amount of power generated in a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant with high accuracy. Here, run-of-river hydroelectric power generation (sometimes called run-of-river type) refers to a method of generating power by drawing in and utilizing the flow of a river or an irrigation channel such as an agricultural irrigation channel, an industrial water supply, or a water supply and sewerage channel. In other words, run-of-river hydroelectric power generation includes micro-hydroelectric power generation, also known as small-scale hydroelectric power generation. An embodiment of the present invention makes it possible to predict the amount of power generated with high accuracy, for example, even when there is a lot of water in the water channel (rivers or irrigation channels) due to rainfall or the like (in the case of abundant water) or when there is little water in the water channel due to drought or the like (in the case of drought).

[0025] Currently, online weather forecasts can predict hourly rainfall amounts up to about 72 hours into the future. By taking into account past rainfall amounts (rainfall records) and past power generation amounts (power generation records), as well as rainfall forecast information, it is believed that it is relatively easy to predict power generation amounts up to two days into the future with high accuracy.

[0026] In an embodiment of the present invention, first, the amount of water rise at the water intake at the first time point is calculated using the amount of rainfall in the waterway basin from the first time point for which the amount of power generation is predicted to a second time point that is a predetermined period back. Next, the amount of water rise is used to calculate the amount of water intake, which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake at the first time point. Then, the amount of power generation at the first time point is calculated from the amount of water intake. This makes it possible to predict the amount of power generation in run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facilities with high accuracy.

[0027] 〔detail〕 <Hydroelectric power plant equipment overview> FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an overview of a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility. As shown in FIG. 1, the run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility PL includes a water tank A1, a penstock P1, and a generator A2. The water tank A1 temporarily stores water taken in from an intake WI provided at a position capable of taking in water blocked by a weir DM provided in a river RV (waterway). The penstock P1 guides the water temporarily stored in the water tank A1 to the generator A2. The generator A2 generates electricity using water supplied from the water tank A1 via the penstock P1. The water taken in from the intake WI is guided to the water tank A1 via a water conduit P0, the water temporarily stored in the water tank A1 is guided to the generator A2 via the penstock P1, and the water via the generator A2 is discharged to a tailrace.

[0028] As shown in Figure 1, the effective head between the water tank A1 and the generator A2 is H [m], and the amount of water flowing from the water tank A1 through the water penstock P1 to the generator A2 is Q [m 3 / s]. The available head H is obtained by subtracting the head loss (for example, the head loss of the penstock P1 and the head loss of the outlet) from the actual height difference between the water tank A1 and the generator A2.

[0029] In Figure 1, the basin range of River RV where rainfall affects the water volume of River RV is conceptually illustrated as Rainfall Area R1. Even if there is rainfall in the basin of River RV, some areas will affect the water volume of River RV and some will not, so by using such Rainfall Area R1, the relationship between the amount of rainfall and the water volume of River RV can be simplified. For example, it is possible to consider that the water volume of River RV is affected (increased) by the amount of rainfall in Rainfall Area R1.

[0030] In the example shown in FIG. 1, the intake WI is located at a certain height from the bottom of the weir DM. Water W1 below the lower end of the intake WI is not taken in from the intake WI and does not contribute to power generation, so the amount of water W1 can be called the "ineffective water volume for power generation." Water W2 between the lower end of the intake WI and the top of the weir DM may be taken in from the intake WI and contribute to power generation, so the amount of water W2 can be called the "effective water volume for power generation." Water W3 above the top of the weir DM is not taken in from the intake WI and does not contribute to power generation, so the amount of water W3 can be called the "surplus water volume for power generation."

[0031] <Power generation forecasting device> Fig. 2 is a block diagram showing the main components of a power generation prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 2, the power generation prediction device 1 of this embodiment includes an operation unit 11, a display unit 12 (output unit), a calculation unit 13, a storage unit 14, and a communication unit 15 (acquisition unit). Such a power generation prediction device 1 communicates with server devices 30, 40 via a network N to acquire the amount of rainfall in the basin of the river RV and the amount of power generated by the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2), and predicts the amount of power generated by the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2) in the future.

[0032] The power generation prediction device 1 is realized by a computer such as a personal computer or a workstation. The power generation prediction device 1 may be installed at any location. For example, it may be installed inside the hydroelectric power plant facility PL, or outside the hydroelectric power plant facility PL. The power generation prediction device 1 may be realized by cloud computing via a network N. Before describing the details of the power generation prediction device 1, a brief description will be given of the server devices 30, 40 and the network N.

[0033] The server device 30 provides predicted rainfall (for example, hourly rainfall (rainfall forecast) for the next 72 hours or so) and past rainfall (actual rainfall) via the network N. The rainfall provided by the server device 30 is the rainfall at a predefined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency. This server device 30 is operated, for example, by a forecasting business licensee (a business that forecasts weather, terrestrial phenomena, tsunamis, storm surges, ocean waves or floods with the permission of the Director-General of the Japan Meteorological Agency). The server device 30 may be realized by cloud computing.

[0034] The server device 40 sequentially provides the latest power generation amount (power generation record) of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2) via the network N. This server device 40 is operated, for example, by a business operator who operates the run-of-river type hydroelectric power plant facility PL. Note that the server device 40, like the server device 30, may be realized by cloud computing.

[0035] The network N is, for example, the Internet. The network N may be any of a network capable of wired communication, a network capable of wireless communication, and a network capable of both wired communication and wireless communication. The network N may also be a Wi-Fi (registered trademark) network, or a mobile communication network such as a 3G system, a 4G system, or an LTE (registered trademark) system.

[0036] The operation unit 11 includes an input device such as a keyboard or a pointing device, and outputs instructions (instructions for the power generation prediction device 1) according to operations of a user who uses the power generation prediction device 1 to the calculation unit 13. The display unit 12 includes a display device such as a liquid crystal display device, and displays various information output from the calculation unit 13. The operation unit 11 and the display unit 12 may be physically separated, or may be physically integrated, such as a touch panel type liquid crystal display device that has both a display function and an operation function.

[0037] The calculation unit 13 comprehensively controls the operation of the power generation prediction device 1. For example, it performs various calculations according to instructions output from the operation unit 11, and displays the calculation results on the display unit 12. The calculation unit 13 also writes various data to the storage unit 14 and reads various data from the storage unit 14. In addition, the calculation unit 13 controls the communication unit 15 to realize communication with the server devices 30 and 40 via the network N.

[0038] The calculation unit 13 includes a water rise calculation unit 21, a water intake calculation unit 22, a power generation calculation unit 23, and a power generation correction unit 24. The water rise calculation unit 21 calculates the water rise at the water intake WI at the prediction time point using the amount of rainfall in the basin of the river RV from the prediction time point (first time point) at which the power generation is predicted to a previous time point (second time point) going back a predetermined period T (e.g., 1440 hours = 60 days). Specifically, the water rise calculation unit 21 calculates the water rise Q1 at the water intake WI at the prediction time point using the following formula (1).

[0039]

number

[0040] Here, n in the above formula (1) is an integer indicating any time between the forecast time (n=0) and the past time (n=-T). Xn in the above formula (1) is the rainfall amount per hour [mm / h] at the time n. If the time n is a time in the past, the rainfall amount Xn is the past rainfall amount, and if the time n is a time in the future, the rainfall amount is the predicted rainfall amount (rainfall forecast). As this rainfall amount Xn, the rainfall amount at a predefined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency (for example, the observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency closest to the intake WI) can be used. K1 in the above formula (1) is a flow coefficient, and τ1 is a reduction coefficient. The flow coefficient K1 and the reduction coefficient τ1 are coefficients determined by the characteristics of the river RV (for example, the slope, the presence or absence of meandering, etc.) and the position of the intake WI, and have different values ​​for each position of the river RV and the intake WI. These flow coefficient K1 and reduction coefficient τ1 are obtained by performing experiments in advance.

[0041] From the above formula (1), it can be seen that the flood volume Q1 of the river RV is based on the formula in the parentheses on the right hand side (Xn*exp(n*τ1)). This formula exponentially attenuates the amount of rainfall Xn at time n according to the length (n) from time n to the prediction time (n=0). In other words, the flood volume calculation unit 21 obtains a value in which the amount of rainfall at each time (n) between the prediction time (n=0) and the past time (n=-T) is exponentially attenuated according to the length (n) to the prediction time. Then, the flood volume Q1 is obtained by multiplying the integrated value obtained by integrating these values ​​by the flow coefficient K1.

[0042] The water intake calculation unit 22 calculates the water intake amount, which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake WI at the prediction time, using the water increase amount Q1 calculated by the water increase calculation unit 21. Specifically, the water intake calculation unit 22 calculates the water intake amount Q of the water intake WI using the following formula (2).

[0043]

number

[0044] Here, Q2 in the above formula (2) is the base water volume, which is the water volume of the river RV when there is no rainfall. This base water volume Q2 is expressed as a function in which the water volume decreases exponentially over time. Specifically, it is expressed by the following formula (3). In the following formula (3), K2 is the flow coefficient, and τ2 is the reduction coefficient. Like the flow coefficient K1 and reduction coefficient τ1, the flow coefficient K2 and reduction coefficient τ2 are coefficients determined by the characteristics of the river RV and the position of the intake WI, and take different values ​​for each position of the river RV and the intake WI. These flow coefficient K2 and reduction coefficient τ2 are determined in advance by conducting experiments.

[0045]

number

[0046] This base water volume Q2 is set (reset) to an initial value by the water intake volume calculation unit 22 every time the amount of power generation in the hydroelectric power plant equipment PL reaches a predetermined maximum power generation amount. Here, the amount of power generation in the hydroelectric power plant equipment PL reaches a maximum when the water level of the water held back by the weir DM reaches the same height as the weir DM. Therefore, when the amount of power generation obtained from the server device 40 reaches the predetermined maximum power generation amount, the water intake volume calculation unit 22 assumes that the water level of the water held back by the weir DM has reached the same height as the weir DM, and initializes the base water volume Q2. In the above formula (3), m is an integer indicating the elapsed time from the initialization point of the base water volume Q2.

[0047] Q4 in the above equation (2) is the amount of water that overflows from the weir DM when the water level held back by the weir DM exceeds the weir DM. Here, the amount of water held back by the weir DM when the power generation amount at the hydroelectric power plant facility PL is maximum power generation is defined as the weir full water volume Q3. Note that this weir full water volume Q3 can also be said to be the amount of water held back by the weir DM when the water level held back by the weir DM becomes the same height as the weir DM. Then, the overflow water volume Q4 is expressed by the following equation (4).

[0048]

number

[0049] In other words, if the water volume obtained by adding the flood volume Q1 and the base water volume Q2 is greater than the above-mentioned weir full water volume Q3, the overflow water volume Q4 is the sum of the flood volume Q1 and the base water volume Q2 minus the above-mentioned weir full water volume Q3. On the other hand, if the water volume obtained by adding the flood volume Q1 and the base water volume Q2 is equal to or less than the above-mentioned weir full water volume Q3, the overflow water volume Q4 is zero.

[0050] As described above, the water intake calculation unit 22 calculates the water volume obtained by subtracting the overflow water volume Q4 from the water volume obtained by adding the increased water volume Q1 and the base water volume Q2 as the water intake volume Q. If the water volume obtained by adding the increased water volume Q1 and the base water volume Q2 is equal to or less than the above-mentioned weir full water volume Q3, the overflow water volume Q4 will be zero, so the water intake calculation unit 22 calculates the water volume obtained by adding the increased water volume Q1 and the base water volume Q2 as the water intake volume Q.

[0051] The power generation amount calculation unit 23 calculates the power generation amount of the power plant equipment PL at the time of prediction from the water intake amount Q obtained by the water intake amount calculation unit 22. For example, the power generation amount calculation unit 23 calculates the power generation amount P [kW] of the power plant equipment PL at the time of prediction using the following formula (5). Here, in the following formula (5), H is the effective head [m], and Q is the water volume [m 3 / s] (see FIG. 1). In the following equation (5), η is the efficiency of the generator A2 (including the efficiency of the water turbine).

[0052]

number

[0053] The power generation amount correction unit 24 corrects the power generation amount P calculated by the power generation amount calculation unit 23. Specifically, when the prediction time arrives and the actual power generation amount Pr is obtained from the server device 40, the power generation amount correction unit 24 calculates an error Δ between the predicted power generation amount P and the actually obtained power generation amount Pr. Then, the power generation amount correction unit 24 corrects the power generation amount P predicted at a prediction time point newly set for predicting the power generation amount by using the error Δ.

[0054] The storage unit 14 includes an auxiliary storage device such as an HDD (hard disk drive) or an SSD (solid state drive), and stores various information. Specifically, the storage unit 14 stores various parameters (e.g., flow coefficient K1, reduction coefficient τ1, etc.) required to predict the power generation amount of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL, the amount of rainfall acquired from the server device 30, the power generation amount acquired from the server device 40, etc. The storage unit 14 may also store various programs that realize the functions of the power generation amount prediction device 1, data that is temporarily used for processing the calculation unit 13, etc.

[0055] The communication unit 15, under the control of the calculation unit 13, communicates with the server devices 30, 40 connected to the network N. The communication unit 15 communicates with the server device 30 to acquire the amount of rainfall at a predefined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The communication unit can acquire both past rainfall and predicted rainfall (rainfall forecast). The communication unit 15 also communicates with the server device 40 to acquire the latest amount of power generation of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2).

[0056] The functions of each block of the power generation prediction device 1 (for example, the functions of the water level rise calculation unit 21, water intake calculation unit 22, power generation calculation unit 23, and power generation correction unit 24 provided in the calculation unit 13) are realized in software by installing programs that realize these functions in the power generation prediction device 1. In other words, these functions are realized by the cooperation of software and hardware resources. The programs that realize the functions of each block of the power generation prediction device 1 may be distributed in a state recorded on a recording medium, or may be distributed via a network such as the Internet.

[0057] The functions of the power generation prediction device 1 are preferably realized by software, but may be realized by dedicated hardware. The functions of the power generation prediction device 1 may be realized by hardware such as a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), large scale integration (LSI), or application specific integrated circuit (ASIC).

[0058] <Power generation forecast method> Fig. 3 is a flowchart showing an example of a power generation prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention. The process of the flowchart shown in Fig. 3 is repeatedly started at regular time intervals (for example, every hour). In this embodiment, each time the process shown in Fig. 3 is started, communication is performed between the power generation prediction device 1 and the server devices 30, 40, and the power generation prediction device 1 performs a process of acquiring the amount of rainfall at a predefined observation point of the Meteorological Agency and the latest power generation amount of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2) (acquisition step).

[0059] 3 is started, first, the water level rise calculation unit 21 calculates the water level rise at the prediction time using the rainfall amount for a predetermined period (step S11: water level rise calculation step). Specifically, the water level rise at the water intake WI at the prediction time is calculated using the rainfall amount in the basin of the river RV up to a time point going back a predetermined period T (e.g., 1440 hours = 60 days) from the prediction time point at which the power generation amount is predicted.

[0060] Fig. 4 is a diagram for explaining the processing performed in the flood volume calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention. In the graph shown in Fig. 4, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents the amount of rainfall. In Fig. 4, time t20 indicates the present time, time t30 indicates the predicted time, and time t10 indicates a past time (a time going back a predefined period T from the predicted time t30).

[0061] In Figure 4, the straight lines extending along the vertical axis represent the amount of rainfall. The curves extending to the right (in the direction of time) from the upper ends of the straight lines representing the amount of rainfall represent the manner in which the amount of water that contributed to the rise in the river RV due to rainfall decreases (attenuates) over time as it flows downstream of the river RV.

[0062] The rainfall amounts at times t10 to t14 indicate past rainfall amounts at a predefined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the rainfall amounts at times t21 and t30 are rainfall amounts predicted at the predefined observation points of the Japan Meteorological Agency. These rainfall amounts are acquired by the power generation prediction device 1 communicating with the server device 30 via the network N.

[0063] The amount of water increase Q1 at the intake WI at the time of prediction is calculated by performing the calculation shown in the above-mentioned formula (1) in the water increase calculation unit 21. Specifically, at each time point shown in Fig. 4, a value is calculated by exponentially attenuating the amount of rainfall according to the length to the prediction time t30, and these values ​​are integrated, and the integrated value is multiplied by the flow coefficient K1 to calculate the amount of water increase Q1.

[0064] For example, for the amount of precipitation at time t10, a process is performed to obtain a value that is exponentially attenuated from the amount of precipitation at time t10 according to the length (period T) from time t10 to the predicted time t30. For the amount of precipitation at time t11, a process is performed to obtain a value that is exponentially attenuated from the amount of precipitation at time t11 according to the length (t30-t11) from time t11 to the predicted time t30. Similarly, for the amount of precipitation at times t12 to t14 and t21, a process is performed to obtain a value that is exponentially attenuated from the amount of precipitation at each time according to the length from each time to the predicted time t30. Then, a process is performed to multiply the integrated value obtained by integrating these values ​​by a flow coefficient K1 to obtain the amount of increased water Q1.

[0065] Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the amount of water rise calculated by the water rise calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention. In the graph shown in Fig. 5, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the amount of rainfall and the amount of water rise. The amount of water rise shown in Fig. 5 is calculated by repeatedly starting the process of the flowchart shown in Fig. 3 at regular intervals (for example, every hour).

[0066] Next, the water intake volume calculation unit 22 calculates the water intake volume Q of the water intake inlet WI at the prediction time point t30 using the increased water volume Q1 calculated in step S11 (step S12: water intake volume calculation step). The water intake volume Q of the water intake inlet WI is calculated by performing the calculation shown in the above-mentioned formula (2) in the water intake volume calculation unit 22. Specifically, the water intake volume Q is calculated by subtracting the overflow water volume Q4 from the water volume obtained by adding the increased water volume Q1 calculated in step S11 and the base water volume Q2 expressed by the above-mentioned formula (3).

[0067] When the amount of power generation obtained from the server device 40 reaches a predetermined maximum amount of power generation, the water level of the water held back by the weir DM is regarded as being the same as the weir DM, and the base water volume Q2 is initialized in the water intake volume calculation unit 22. The overflow water volume Q4 is calculated by the above-mentioned formula (4) in the water intake volume calculation unit 22.

[0068] Next, the power generation amount P in the power plant equipment PL is calculated from the water intake amount Q calculated in step S12 by the power generation amount calculation unit 23 (step S13: power generation amount calculation step). The power generation amount P in the power plant equipment PL is calculated by performing the calculation shown in the above-mentioned formula (5) in the power generation amount calculation unit 23. Specifically, the power generation amount P in the power plant equipment PL is calculated by multiplying the water intake amount Q (water amount Q) calculated in step S12 by the gravitational acceleration (9.8), the effective head H, and the efficiency of the generator A2.

[0069] Next, the power generation amount correction unit 24 performs a process of correcting the power generation amount calculated in step S13 (step S14: correction step). Specifically, when a past prediction time point (for example, a time point one hour before the prediction time point t30) arrives and the actual power generation amount Pr is obtained from the server device 40, a process of calculating an error Δ between the predicted power generation amount P and the actually obtained power generation amount Pr is performed. Then, a process of correcting the power generation amount P predicted at the prediction time point t30 using the error Δ is performed.

[0070] When the above process is completed, the calculation unit 13 performs a process of displaying the power generation amount P of the power plant equipment PL predicted at the prediction time t30 on the display unit 12 (step S15: output step). For example, if predictions are made every hour for up to 24 hours ahead, the processes of steps S11 to S14 will be repeated 24 times while changing the prediction time t30 from the start to the end of the flowchart shown in Fig. 3.

[0071] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a predicted value obtained in one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6(a) is a diagram showing the actual power generation amount and the predicted value two hours before, and FIG. 6(b) is a diagram showing the actual power generation amount and the predicted value 24 hours before. Referring to FIG. 6(a), the predicted value and the actual measurement value almost match, and the prediction error (RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error) was 1.05 [MW]. Referring to FIG. 6(b), there is a slight deviation between the predicted value and the actual measurement value, and the prediction error (RMSE) was 3.21 [MW].

[0072] In the example shown in Figure 6, the rated power generation of the power plant equipment PL is 50 [MW]. Therefore, as shown in Figure 6(a), the prediction error when predicting two hours ahead is about 2%, and as shown in Figure 6(b), the prediction error when predicting 24 hours ahead is about 6.5%. From the above, it can be considered that the power generation amount of the power plant equipment PL can be predicted with high accuracy.

[0073] As described above, in this embodiment, first, the amount of water increase Q1 at the intake WI at the prediction time t30 is calculated using the amount of rainfall in the river basin from the prediction time t30 at which the power generation is predicted up to the past time t10, which is a predetermined period of time T back. Next, the amount of water increase Q1 is used to calculate the intake amount Q, which is the amount of water taken in from the intake WI at the prediction time t30. Then, the amount of power generation P at the prediction time t30 is calculated from the intake amount Q. This makes it possible to predict the amount of power generation in a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility PL with high accuracy.

[0074] In this way, the power generation prediction device 1 of this embodiment predicts the power generation amount in the run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility PL by utilizing the predicted rainfall (rainfall forecast) and past rainfall (rainfall record) provided every hour by the server device 30. Therefore, the power generation amount in the power plant facility PL can be predicted in real time (every hour) with high accuracy. Therefore, by linking the power generation prediction device 1 of this embodiment with a CEMS, the amount of power generated by thermal power generation can be minimized, which can contribute to reducing CO2 emissions.

[0075] The power generation prediction device and the power generation prediction method according to one embodiment of the present invention have been described above, but the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment and can be freely modified within the scope of the present invention. For example, in the above embodiment, an example was described in which the rainfall amount at the Meteorological Agency observation point closest to the water intake WI is used as the rainfall amount Xn. However, if there is a certain correlation between the rainfall amount at the Meteorological Agency observation point and the amount of water rise in the river RV, the rainfall amount at any Meteorological Agency observation point set near the basin of the river RV can be used as the rainfall amount Xn.

[0076] In the above-mentioned embodiment, for the sake of simplicity, an example in which there is one water intake WI has been described, but a plurality of water intakes WI may be provided at different locations. In the above-mentioned embodiment, an example in which the power generation amount P at the prediction time t30 of the power plant equipment PL is displayed on the display unit 12 has been described, but the power generation amount P at the prediction time t30 of the power plant equipment PL may be output to the outside. For example, it may be output to an external terminal device via the network N.

[0077] In the above embodiment, an example of predicting the amount of power generated in a hydroelectric power plant facility that generates power using water from the river RV taken in from the water intake WI has been described. However, this embodiment can also be applied to, for example, predicting the amount of power generated in a hydroelectric power plant facility that generates power using water from an irrigation channel. [Explanation of symbols]

[0078] 1. Power generation forecasting device 12 Display section 15 Communications Department 21 Water Increase Calculation Section 22 Water intake calculation department 23 Power generation calculation section 24 Power generation correction unit WI water intake DM weir P Predicted power generation Pr Actual power generation PL Hydroelectric Power Plant Facilities Q Water intake amount Q1 Water level increase Q2 Base water amount Q4 Overflow water volume RV River t10 Past time t30 Prediction time T period Xn Rainfall Δ error

Claims

1. A power generation prediction device for predicting the amount of power generated in a flow-through hydroelectric power plant facility that generates power using water from a waterway taken in from a water intake, a water rise calculation unit that calculates the water rise at the water intake at the first time point by using the amount of rainfall in the waterway basin from a first time point at which the amount of power generation is predicted to a second time point that is a predetermined period back; a water intake amount calculation unit that calculates a water intake amount, which is the amount of water taken in through the water intake at the first time point, using the water increase amount; an electricity generation amount calculation unit that calculates an electricity generation amount at the first time point from the water intake amount; Equipped with The water level calculation unit calculates the water level by integrating values ​​obtained by exponentially attenuating the amount of precipitation at each time point between the first time point and the second time point according to the length from each time point to the first time point. Power generation prediction device.

2. The water intake is provided at a position where it can take in water blocked by a dam provided in the waterway, The power generation prediction device of claim 1, wherein the water intake calculation unit calculates the water intake volume by subtracting the volume of water overflowing from the weir from the volume of water obtained by adding the base water volume, which is the water volume of the waterway in the absence of rainfall, to the rising water volume.

3. The basal water volume is expressed by a function in which the water volume decreases exponentially over time, The water intake calculation unit sets the base water volume to an initial value each time the amount of power generated in the hydroelectric power plant facility reaches a predetermined maximum power generation amount. The power generation prediction device according to claim 2.

4. 4. The power generation prediction device according to claim 1, further comprising a power generation correction unit that, when the first time point arrives and an actual power generation amount is obtained, calculates an error between the predicted power generation amount and the actually obtained power generation amount, and corrects the amount of power predicted at the first time point that is newly set for predicting the power generation amount using the error.

5. The power generation prediction device according to claim 1 , further comprising an acquisition unit that acquires the amount of rainfall in a watershed of the waterway and the amount of power generation in the hydroelectric power plant facility.

6. The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1 , further comprising an output unit that outputs the power generation amount predicted at the first time point.

7. A method for predicting the amount of power generated in a flow-through hydroelectric power plant facility that generates power using water from a waterway taken in from a water intake, comprising: a water level calculation step in which the power generation prediction device calculates the water level at the intake at the first time point using the rainfall in the waterway basin from the first time point at which the power generation is predicted to a second time point that is a predetermined period back; a water intake amount calculation step in which the power generation amount prediction device calculates a water intake amount, which is the amount of water taken in through the water intake at the first time point, using the water increase amount; a power generation amount calculation step in which the power generation amount prediction device calculates the power generation amount at the first time point from the water intake amount; having The water level increase calculation step is a step of calculating the water level increase by accumulating values ​​obtained by exponentially attenuating the amount of precipitation at each time point between the first time point and the second time point according to the length from each time point to the first time point. Methods for forecasting electricity generation.

8. The water intake is provided at a position where it can take in water blocked by a dam provided in the waterway, The power generation prediction method according to claim 7, wherein the water intake calculation step is a step of calculating the water intake volume by subtracting the amount of water overflowing from the weir from the amount of water obtained by adding the base water volume, which is the water volume of the waterway in the absence of rainfall, to the amount of water rise, to obtain the water intake volume.

9. The basal water volume is expressed by a function in which the water volume decreases exponentially over time, The water intake calculation step is a step of setting the base water volume to an initial value each time the amount of power generated in the hydroelectric power plant facility reaches a predetermined maximum power generation amount. The method for predicting power generation amount according to claim 8.

10. 10. The power generation prediction method according to claim 7, further comprising a power generation correction step of, when the first time point arrives and an actual power generation amount is obtained, calculating an error between the predicted power generation amount and the actually obtained power generation amount, and correcting the amount of power predicted at a first time point newly set for predicting the power generation amount using the error.

11. The power generation prediction method according to claim 7 , further comprising the step of acquiring a rainfall amount in a watershed of the waterway and a power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant facility.

12. The power generation amount prediction method according to claim 7 , further comprising: an output step of outputting the power generation amount predicted at the first time point.

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