Delivery plan creation method and delivery plan creation device

Abstract

Create delivery plans that are easy for delivery personnel to understand. [Solution] A delivery plan creation method executed by an information processing device to create a delivery plan for multiple packages, the delivery plan creation method including a first determination step of determining a delivery order on a block-by-block basis, which is an area including multiple delivery destinations, a second determination step of determining a delivery plan within each of the blocks, and a third determination step of connecting the delivery plans within each block to determine an overall delivery plan.

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a delivery plan creation method and a delivery plan creation device. [Background technology]

[0002] In the context of an increase in delivery (home delivery) demand and a labor shortage, there is a need to improve the efficiency of delivery operations, especially last-mile delivery. One measure to improve the efficiency of last-mile delivery is to improve delivery route planning.

[0003] Conventional delivery route planning focuses on optimizing (minimizing) the total delivery time, taking into account time-specified delivery and the time constraints for completing all deliveries. There is also a trend to emphasize optimizing (minimizing) the total driving distance from the perspective of fuel costs and carbon dioxide emissions. However, delivery plans created using conventional technology often have inefficient routes that cross major roads, railways (railroad crossings), and rivers (bridges), which increase the risk of getting caught in traffic jams. In addition, there is consideration of using road network information to avoid crossing major roads, railways, rivers, etc., but because optimization is performed for all destinations, the route plan can be complex and difficult for humans to understand.

[0004] In addition, deliveries to multiple destinations may be made in one parking action. In order to perform efficient deliveries, it is necessary to determine the appropriate parking location according to the destination.

[0005] Furthermore, in order to create an appropriate delivery plan, it is necessary to accurately estimate the time required for each action. Although there have been many studies on estimating the time required for vehicle movement, there have been few studies on accurately estimating the time required for delivery after parking. Estimation of the time required for walking to the destination site has been done, but there are few precedents for the time required for moving within the building site or for receiving and handing over the package. On the other hand, in delivery from the final base to the destination (last-mile delivery), the time required for actions after parking takes up a larger proportion of the time required for the vehicle movement. Therefore, in order to create an efficient and human-implementable delivery plan, it is necessary to appropriately estimate the time required after parking. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] JP 2012-083882 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2010-78571 A [Patent Document 3] JP 2020-144655 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0007] In view of such circumstances, an object of the present disclosure is to provide a technology capable of creating a delivery plan that is efficient and suitable for human execution. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] One aspect of the present invention is a method for producing a composition comprising the steps of: A delivery plan creation method for creating a delivery plan for a plurality of packages, the method comprising: A first determination step of determining a delivery order for each block, which is an area including a plurality of delivery destinations; a second determination step of determining a delivery plan within each of the blocks; A third decision step of determining an overall delivery plan by connecting the delivery plans in each block; The delivery plan creation method includes:

[0009] According to this method, the route of the final delivery plan is roughly a traffic line moving through blocks, and a delivery plan that is easy for the delivery person to understand is obtained. Furthermore, by defining the blocks so as not to include parts that are predicted to be difficult to cross, such as main roads, railways, and rivers, the risk of getting caught in traffic jams can be reduced. Thus, according to this aspect, it is possible to create a more appropriate delivery plan that is easy for the delivery person to understand and has a low risk of getting caught in traffic jams.

[0010] Another aspect of the present invention is A delivery plan creation method for determining a delivery plan for a plurality of packages, the method comprising: A step of determining a parking location according to a delivery destination based on a parking location database previously acquired from a delivery log and a positioning log related to past deliveries, In the parking space database, a priority is set for each parking space according to the number of times the vehicle has been parked; In the step of determining a parking location, a parking location for each delivery destination is determined according to the priority. The delivery plan creating method is characterized by the above.

[0011] According to this method, parking locations that have actually been used in past deliveries can be used in the delivery plan. When parking locations are determined using a specified algorithm based on the destination location and road information, locations that are not actually available for parking may be obtained, but because the parking locations are extracted from past records, locations that are more reliably available for parking can be obtained. From this perspective, this aspect makes it possible to create an appropriate delivery plan.

[0012] Yet another aspect of the present invention is a method for producing a composition comprising the steps of: A delivery plan creation method for determining a delivery plan for a plurality of packages, the method comprising: and estimating a delivery time required after parking based on delivery information of one or more packages and a parking location when delivering the one or more packages, using a prediction model determined based on the time required for past deliveries obtained from a delivery log. The delivery plan creating method is characterized by the above.

[0013] According to this method, the time required for delivery after parking the vehicle in the delivery plan can be calculated, and since it is calculated based on past performance, the accuracy is high. Therefore, the time accuracy of the obtained delivery plan is high, and delivery can be performed as planned.

[0014] The present invention can be understood as a delivery plan creation method including at least a part of the above-mentioned functions and processes, and can also be understood as a delivery plan creation device that executes the above-mentioned delivery plan. Effect of the Invention

[0015] An object of the present invention is to provide a technique that can create an appropriate delivery plan. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0016] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating the configuration of a delivery plan creation device according to an embodiment. [Diagram 2] 11 is a flowchart of a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Diagram 3] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 4] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Diagram 5] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 6] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 7] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 8] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 9] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 10] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. [Figure 11] 5A to 5C are diagrams for explaining a delivery plan creation process according to the embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0017] Hereinafter, exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to the described embodiments. Furthermore, not all of the components described in the embodiments are essential to the present invention.

[0018] (composition) This embodiment relates to a delivery plan creation device that creates a delivery plan for multiple parcels. A delivery plan is a plan that indicates in what order and by what route parcels to be delivered are to be delivered. A delivery plan typically includes a travel route and parking positions of a delivery vehicle, parcels to be delivered at each parking position, and their delivery destinations. Note that some parcels have a specified delivery time. In this disclosure, such parcels are referred to as parcels with a specified delivery time or time-specified parcels. The delivery plan needs to be created so as to satisfy time-specified requests and other service requirements.

[0019] FIG. 1(A) is a hardware configuration diagram of a delivery plan creation device 1, and FIG. 1(B) is a functional block diagram of the delivery plan creation device 1. As shown in FIG.

[0020] As shown in FIG. 1(A), the delivery plan creation device 1 is realized by a computer (information processing device). The hardware configuration of the delivery plan creation device 1 includes an arithmetic processor 11 such as a CPU, a communication device 12 capable of wireless or wired communication, an input device 13 such as a keyboard or a mouse, an output device such as a display, and a storage device 15 including a main storage device and an auxiliary storage device. The processor 11 executes a computer program stored in the storage device 15, causing the delivery plan creation device 1 to realize each of the functions shown in FIG. 1(B). Any or all of the functions of the delivery plan creation device 1 may be realized by a dedicated hardware device. The delivery plan creation device 1 may also be realized by multiple computers capable of communicating with each other.

[0021] 1(B), the delivery plan creation device 1 includes, as its functional units, a block visiting order determination unit 20, an intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30, and an overall delivery plan determination unit 40. The intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30 includes, as sub-functional units, a parking location determination unit 31 and a delivery required time estimation unit 32. Details of each functional unit will be explained with reference to a flowchart, so each functional unit will be briefly explained here.

[0022] The block visiting order determination unit 20 determines the delivery order for each block. A block is a section that includes multiple potential delivery destinations, and is typically divided in advance taking into consideration city blocks and road networks. Blocks are configured so as not to include routes that take time to pass through, such as main roads, railways, or rivers, and are divided so that delivery workers can easily recognize them. The block visiting order determination unit 20 determines the delivery order for each block, taking into consideration the delivery destination and specified delivery time for the current delivery. The block visiting order determination unit 20 determines the order of visiting the blocks taking these factors into consideration. The block visiting order determination unit 20 roughly determines whether or not the service conditions, such as the time zone designation, can be met at this point, and excludes some packages from the current delivery if the conditions cannot be met. The block visiting order determination unit 20 may also divide a block that has been set in advance as necessary, and determine the visiting order for the divided blocks.

[0023] The intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30 determines a delivery plan within each block. To determine a delivery plan within a block, the parking location determination unit 31 determines a parking location for each delivery destination. The parking location determination unit 31 determines the current parking location taking into account parking locations used in past deliveries. In addition, the delivery required time estimation unit 32 estimates the delivery required time within the block. The delivery required time within the block includes the time required for the vehicle to move (including parking) and the time it takes for the delivery person to make the delivery on foot after parking (also referred to as the doorstep time). For the doorstep time, the delivery required time estimation unit 32 estimates the current required time taking into account the actual required time for past deliveries. In this way, by determining the delivery required time in more detail, a delivery plan can be created to satisfy the delivery conditions.

[0024] The overall delivery plan determination unit 40 determines an overall delivery plan by connecting the delivery plans within each block determined by the intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30 in the block visiting order determined by the block visiting order determination unit 20.

[0025] Fig. 2 is a flowchart of a delivery plan creating method executed by the delivery plan creating device 1. Figs. 3 to 12 are diagrams for explaining details of the processing of the delivery plan creating method. The delivery plan creating method according to this embodiment will be explained below with reference to Figs. 2 to 12.

[0026] The delivery plan creation process shown in Fig. 2 includes a first determination step (STP01-STP08) for determining a delivery order for each block, a second determination step (loop process L1; STP09-STP11) for determining a delivery plan within each block, and a third determination step (STP12) for determining an overall delivery plan by connecting the delivery plans within each block. The first to third determination steps are executed by the block visiting order determination unit 20, the intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30, and the overall delivery plan determination unit 40, respectively.

[0027] In SPT01, the block visiting order determination unit 20 extracts parcels with delivery time designations from the parcel delivery information, and determines the delivery order of the parcels with delivery time designations.

[0028] Fig. 3(A) is a diagram for explaining the destination of a parcel included in the parcel delivery information. The parcel delivery information includes parcels for which no delivery time is specified, as indicated by a white circle 301, and parcels for which a delivery time is specified, as indicated by a black circle 302 containing a white number. Here, the delivery time is specified as a time period, with "14" indicating a time period from 14:00 to 16:00, "16" indicating a time period from 16:00 to 18:00, and "18" indicating a time period from 18:00 to 20:00. The method of setting the delivery time is not particularly limited and can be arbitrary.

[0029] FIG. 3(B) shows the result of determining the delivery order of parcels with delivery time specifications determined in STP01. There are no particular limitations on the method of determining the delivery order, but it may be determined so as to satisfy the time specifications and minimize the travel cost (a value based on one or more of travel time, travel distance, fuel consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions). In this example, a route is determined that delivers from a delivery start position 310 to destinations 311-316 in this order and travels to a delivery end position 317. Note that the delivery start position 310 and the delivery end position 317 may be determined appropriately, and these two positions may be the same. Note that travel to the delivery end position 317 does not need to be taken into consideration.

[0030] In STP02, the block visiting order determination unit 20 determines whether or not it is possible to determine a delivery order that satisfies delivery conditions such as the time zone designation, in other words, whether or not the delivery plan will fail. FIG. 4(A) is a diagram showing an example of a plan that will fail. As shown in FIG. 4(A), if there are packages 401-403 with a time zone designation from 14:00 to 16:00 and the destinations are far apart, it can be determined that delivery is impossible during the delivery designation time zone. This determination may be made in any way. For example, the time required for vehicle travel and the time required for delivery on foot may be estimated for the delivery order determined in STP01 to determine whether or not the time constraints of the time zone designation are satisfied, or a simple determination may be made based on the number of packages and the travel distance. Alternatively, it may be determined that the plan has failed because a delivery order that satisfies the constraint conditions cannot be determined in STP01. If the plan has failed, the process proceeds to STP03, and if the constraint conditions are satisfied, the process proceeds to STP04.

[0031] In STP03, the block visiting order determination unit 20 excludes some of the packages with time zone designations from the delivery plan. Typically, it is sufficient to exclude some of the packages with concentrated time zone designations. Then, the process returns to STP01 to again determine the delivery order of packages with delivery time designations. In the example of FIG. 4(B), package 403 is excluded, and as a result of the replanning, the delivery order is determined to be package 404 to be delivered after package 402.

[0032] The processes STP01 to STP03 are repeated until the constraint conditions are satisfied. The excluded parcels are scheduled to be delivered by another delivery person, but this is outside the scope of this disclosure. Also, the parcels to be excluded do not have to be only parcels with a time designation, and parcels without a time designation whose destination is close to the parcels with a time designation may also be excluded.

[0033] In STP04, the block visiting order determination unit 20 projects the destination of the package with the delivery time designation to the block, and associates the package with the delivery time designation with the block. More specifically, it determines that the block including the delivery destination of the package is the block corresponding to the package.

[0034] A block is an area that includes multiple delivery destination candidates, and the entire delivery area is divided into several blocks. The division into blocks is performed manually or by computer processing in advance and stored in the block information. A block is preferably a division that can be easily recognized by a delivery person as a single unit and does not include areas that require time to pass through, such as main roads, railway tracks, or rivers. Instead of defining blocks in advance, blocks may be dynamically determined according to the distribution of the destinations for the current delivery.

[0035] The block visiting order determination unit 20 refers to the delivery destination and block information to determine the block to which each package destination belongs. Figure 5(A) is a diagram showing the correspondence between destinations and blocks. Destinations 501 and 502 are associated with block 511, destination 503 is associated with block 512, destinations 504 and 505 are associated with block 513, and destination 506 is associated with block 514.

[0036] In addition, in STP04, when projecting the destinations of parcels with designated delivery times onto blocks, if the destinations (parcels) projected onto one block have different designated delivery times (if there are multiple parcels whose designated delivery times differ by a predetermined value or more), the block circulation order determination unit 20 divides the block. For example, as shown in FIG. 5(B), assume that the designated time for destination 501 is 14:00-16:00 and the designated time for destination 502 is 18:00-20:00. Here, destinations 501 and 502 are both included in block 511. In this way, if there are multiple parcels (destinations) for one block whose designated delivery times differ by a predetermined value or more, the block is divided so that these multiple parcels (destinations) correspond to different blocks. In the example of Fig. 5(B), block 511 to which destinations 501 and 502 belong is divided into two blocks: block 511a to which destination 501 belongs, and block 511b to which destination 502 belongs. There are various possible specific division methods, but any division may be used here as long as it satisfies the above-mentioned conditions.

[0037] In STP05, the block visiting order determination unit 20 estimates the delivery time required within each block. If the block has been divided in STP04, the required time is estimated for each of the divided blocks. The method for estimating the required time within a block is not particularly limited, and it may be estimated based on, for example, the number of destinations, the number of packages, the range of destinations, and the travel distance between destinations. Note that there may be some blocks in which there are no packages with designated delivery times, and in STP05 the required time within such blocks is also estimated.

[0038] 6A shows an example of calculation of the time required for each block. Here, it is assumed that the time required for each of blocks 611 to 614 is estimated to be 110 minutes, 70 minutes, 95 minutes, and 90 minutes, respectively.

[0039] In STP06, the block visiting order determination unit 20 determines the block visiting order (delivery order for each block) according to the delivery order of packages with designated delivery times. The block visiting order can basically be determined in the same way as the delivery order of packages with designated delivery times determined in STP01. If there is a block without packages with designated delivery times, the visiting order for all blocks is determined by inserting it at an appropriate position.

[0040] Fig. 6(B) shows an example of a block cyclic order determined in STP06. This example is a block cyclic order determined according to the cyclic order of Fig. 3(B) or Fig. 5(A).

[0041] In STP07, the block visiting order determination unit 20 judges whether there is any problem with the visiting order determined up to this point. Because the block visiting order and the time required within each block have been obtained, it is possible to judge whether the time constraints of parcels with specified delivery times can be met based on this information. If the time constraints are not met (the plan fails), the process proceeds to STP08, where the blocks are divided and the delivery order is re-planned on a block-by-block basis; if the constraints are met, the process proceeds to STP09, where a delivery plan is made within the block.

[0042] FIG. 7(A) is an example of a plan that fails. In this example, the blocks 711, 712, 713, and 714 are visited in this order, and the time required within each block is estimated to be 110 minutes, 120 minutes, 95 minutes, and 90 minutes. Based on this estimation, it is assumed that package 701, which has a time designation of 16:00-18:00, cannot be delivered within the designated time. In other words, the plan in FIG. 7(A) is a failed plan that cannot satisfy the time designation constraint for package 701.

[0043] In STP08, the block visiting order determination unit 20 divides the blocks. More specifically, it divides one or more blocks that are earlier in the visiting order than the parcels that cannot satisfy the time zone designation, and swaps the delivery order of some of the blocks after the division. Specifically, in the example of FIG. 7(A), the block 712 that is earlier in the visiting order than the block 713 to which the parcel 701 that cannot be delivered within the designated time belongs is divided into two blocks, 712a and 712b, as shown in FIG. 7(B). The blocks to be divided can be, for example, blocks whose in-block travel time exceeds a threshold value, blocks whose destinations of parcels with delivery time designation are concentrated in a certain area, and the like. In addition, it is preferable to divide the blocks so that a block (712a) containing parcels with time zone designation and a block (712b) containing no parcels with time zone designation are obtained.

[0044] After the block division in STP08, the process returns to STP05 to estimate the time required within the block and to determine the block visiting order in STP06, and in STP07 it is determined again whether the plan satisfies the constraints. In the example of FIG. 7(B), block 712 is divided into two, block 712a and block 712b, and the visiting order of block 712b is changed to be the last, so that the time zone designation of baggage 701 (and other baggage) can be respected. Therefore, the blocks and block visiting order shown in FIG. 7(B) are the results obtained by block visiting order determination unit 20.

[0045] The processing from STP09 to STP11 is performed for each block. Here, the processing of each block is described as being performed sequentially as loop processing L1, but the processing for multiple blocks may be executed in parallel.

[0046] In STP09, the intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30 determines a parking location for each delivery destination based on the delivery log and the positioning log related to past deliveries, using the parking location determination unit 31. Fig. 8(A) is a flowchart showing the details of the parking location determination process in STP09.

[0047] In STP09-1, the parking location determination unit 31 extracts parking locations for each delivery destination related to past deliveries based on the delivery log and positioning log related to past deliveries. The delivery log records the time of delivery start, delivery completion, return, etc. for each package. The positioning log is a log that records the location of the delivery vehicle for each time. By matching the delivery log with the positioning log, the location of the delivery vehicle at the time of delivery completion can be obtained, and the parking location actually used can be obtained for each delivery destination. Note that while it is preferable for the positioning log to store the location of the delivery vehicle, it can also be used instead because the parking location can be obtained from a log that stores the location of the delivery person.

[0048] In the process of STP09-1, if multiple deliveries are made to one delivery destination, multiple parking locations are required. Therefore, the parking location determination unit 31 determines the priority of each parking location for one delivery destination based on the number of times each parking location has been parked (how many times the parking location has been used). The priority may be determined according to any standard as long as the priority is higher the more times the parking is performed. One example of a method of calculating the priority is the percentage of times the parking location has been used.

[0049] It is desirable to set multiple priorities according to attributes of the delivery date. Examples of attributes of the delivery date are weekday, holiday, weather (heavy rain), etc. The reason for using different priorities for each attribute of the delivery date in this way is that it is expected that available parking locations will change depending on the attributes of the delivery date. For example, it is possible that on a certain road, there is a high probability that there will be no available parking spaces on weekdays and that there will be available parking spaces on holidays and holidays, or vice versa. Also, it is possible that in heavy rain, the delivery person will park in a location close to the delivery destination to minimize the distance he or she has to walk. In this way, it is expected that the appropriate parking location will change depending on the attributes of the delivery date, so a priority is determined for each attribute of the delivery date.

[0050] As a result of STP09-2, the parking space determination unit 31 stores the parking spaces for each delivery destination and their priority in the parking space DB. FIG. 9 is a diagram explaining the parking space DB. Table 901 stores the address, building name, floor / room number, name, parking space ID, and priority of each parking space, with the delivery destination ID as the primary key. Table 902 stores the latitude, longitude, and required time calculation formula, with the parking space ID as the primary key. The required time calculation formula is determined in STP10.

[0051] In table 901, priority 1 is, for example, the priority for weekdays, priority 2 is the priority for holidays, and priority 3 is the priority for heavy rain. For delivery destination D001, parking spot P001 has a high priority on weekdays, parking spot P002 has a high priority on holidays, and parking spot P0003 has a high priority during heavy rain. However, it is possible that the priority of a particular parking spot may be calculated to be high regardless of the attributes of the delivery date.

[0052] In STP09-3, the parking location determination unit 31 determines a parking location for each delivery destination of the current delivery by referring to the parking location DB. More specifically, for each delivery destination, the parking location determination unit 31 determines the parking location with the highest priority as the parking location to be used for the current delivery by referring to the priority in the delivery date attribute of the current delivery.

[0053] It is also assumed that the delivery destination is a new delivery destination and has no record in the parking space DB. In such a case, the location closest to the delivery destination may be determined as the parking space from among the parking spaces stored in table 902 that have been used in the past. A delivery range may be set for each parking space in table 902, and the parking space may not be used as a parking space for a delivery destination that is outside this range. The delivery range may be set manually by an administrator, or may be automatically determined by a computer taking into account distance and map information. A parking space for a new delivery destination may be determined from map information without referring to the parking space DB.

[0054] In this manner, parking locations can be determined for each delivery destination based on past performance. Because it is based on past performance, it is possible to prevent locations that cannot actually be used from being determined as parking locations. This method can also be used for consolidated deliveries, where deliveries are made to multiple delivery destinations in one parking session. In other words, if the same parking location is selected for multiple delivery destinations in this method, consolidated deliveries can be made to these multiple delivery destinations.

[0055] For the sake of simplicity, the parking space DB is created in STP09, but the parking space DB may be created in advance.

[0056] FIG. 8(B) is a diagram showing an example of parking locations for each delivery destination determined by the processing in STP09. In the diagram, a white circle represents a delivery destination, and a "P" represents a parking location. In this way, one parking location is linked to one delivery destination, and one parking location is linked to one or more delivery destinations. In other words, the correspondence between delivery destinations and parking locations is many-to-one.

[0057] In STP10, the intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30 estimates the delivery time required after parking for each parking location using the delivery time required estimation unit 32. For this estimation, an estimation model is used that is created based on delivery logs related to past deliveries. Figure 10(A) is a flowchart showing the details of the estimation model construction and delivery time required estimation steps of STP10.

[0058] In the STP10-1, the delivery time estimation unit 32 refers to the delivery log to acquire information about past deliveries. Here, since the purpose is to build an estimation model that estimates the delivery time after parking, the delivery time (objective variable) and various information that serves as its explanatory variables are required as information about past deliveries. Examples of explanatory variables include the number of destination buildings to which delivery is made after one parking, the number of destinations, and the number of packages. The number of destination buildings may be tallied by destination building type. Examples of building types include detached houses, small apartment buildings, large apartment buildings, small office buildings, medium-sized office buildings, large office buildings, and extra-large commercial facilities. In addition, the presence or absence of an elevator, the presence or absence of a reception desk, and the B / C ratio (Business to Customer ratio, the ratio of businesses / stores to general households in the building) may also be used as the type of building. Information about buildings may be acquired by referring to the building information DB.

[0059] In STP10-2, the delivery time estimation unit 32 calculates a required time estimation model for estimating the delivery time from the explanatory variables based on the explanatory variables and the delivery time (objective variable) for past deliveries. If the estimation model is a regression formula, it is obtained by regression analysis. Alternatively, if the estimation model is a machine learning model, it is obtained by an algorithm such as a neural network, SVM, or decision tree. The estimation model may be obtained individually for each parking spot, or the same model may be obtained for multiple parking spots having similar attributes. The attributes of the parking spot may be the type of road (size, traffic volume, etc.), the type of surrounding buildings, etc. The estimation model obtained by STP10-2 is stored in the parking spot database in association with each parking spot (essential time calculation formula in table 902 in FIG. 9). In this embodiment, the objective variable of the estimation model is the delivery time, but other variables may be the objective variable, or there may be multiple objective variables.

[0060] For the sake of simplicity, the description is given here assuming that the estimation model is created within the STP 10, but the estimation model may be created in advance.

[0061] In STP10-3, the delivery required time estimation unit 32 refers to the estimation model for each of the parking locations determined in STP09 to estimate the delivery required time after parking. Specifically, the delivery required time estimation unit 32 obtains explanatory variables from the delivery information for each parking location and applies the estimation model to the explanatory variables, thereby making it possible to estimate the time required for delivery after parking at each parking location.

[0062] FIG. 10(B) is a diagram showing an example of the estimated results of the delivery time required after parking at each of the parking positions shown in FIG. 8(B).

[0063] In STP 11, intra-block delivery plan determination unit 30 creates a route plan connecting each parking location. Fig. 11(A) is a diagram showing an example of an intra-block route plan, in which route plans 1111-1114 are determined within blocks 1101-1104, respectively.

[0064] In STP12, the overall delivery plan determination unit 40 creates an overall delivery plan by connecting the route plans in each block determined in STP11. Fig. 11(B) shows an example of the delivery plan that is finally obtained. Note that it is possible to check whether this delivery plan satisfies conditions such as time designation, and if the conditions are not satisfied, to re-execute processes such as dividing the block in STP08 or excluding some packages in STP03.

[0065] Advantages of the delivery planning method according to this embodiment will be described.

[0066] First, the order of visiting blocks is determined first, and then the delivery route within the block is determined, resulting in a plan to visit each block in sequence in the final delivery plan. Therefore, the final delivery plan is a plan that is intuitively easy for delivery personnel to understand, as it visits each block in sequence. Even if blocks are divided, the intuitive understanding is not affected much. In addition, if a block is determined not to include places where it may take a long time to pass through, such as major roads, railways, or rivers, the final delivery plan can reduce the number of times such places are passed, thereby suppressing the possibility of unexpected delays.

[0067] Secondly, since parking locations are determined based on past parking records, locations that are actually available for parking and suitable for delivery can be selected as parking locations. If parking locations are determined by calculation based on factors such as the distance from a building entrance, it is possible that a location where parking is not actually possible or is not suitable for delivery may be selected as the parking location, but such situations can be avoided by determining parking locations based on past records. Furthermore, for each delivery destination, the parking location can be selected according to the attributes of the delivery date. By setting multiple priorities according to the delivery destination, it is possible to determine an appropriate parking location according to the attributes at the time of delivery. Furthermore, since a parking location is determined for each delivery destination, if the same parking location is obtained for different delivery destinations, combined delivery can be performed, so combined delivery can be handled without any special processing.

[0068] Thirdly, the time required for delivery after parking is estimated based on past delivery records. It is possible to calculate the required time using a formula given in advance for calculating the required delivery time, but since the required time is determined by various factors, it is difficult to give a formula that can always provide an appropriate estimate. In this embodiment, an estimation model is constructed based on past records, making it possible to estimate the required time with high accuracy.

[0069] As described above, according to this embodiment, it is possible to create a delivery plan that is easier for delivery personnel to understand, has less deviation from the estimated required time, and is more accurate than conventional delivery plans. [Explanation of symbols]

[0070] 1: Delivery plan creation device 20: Block traversal order determination unit 30: Block delivery plan determination unit 31: Parking location determination unit 32: Delivery required time estimation unit 40: Overall delivery plan determination section

Claims

1. A delivery plan creation method for creating a delivery plan for a plurality of packages, the method comprising: A first determination step of determining a delivery order for each block, which is an area including a plurality of delivery destinations; A second determination step of determining, for each of the blocks, a delivery plan that connects parking locations for each delivery destination within the block; A third determination step of determining an overall delivery plan by connecting the delivery plans in each block; How to create a delivery plan, including:

2. The first determining step includes: A step of determining a delivery order for packages with delivery time specifications; Associating the package having a delivery time designation with a block; determining a delivery order for the blocks in accordance with a delivery order for the parcels having delivery time specifications; The delivery plan creating method according to claim 1, further comprising:

3. The block is a predefined area, In the step of associating the package having a delivery time designation with a block, a block including a delivery destination of the package is determined to be the block corresponding to the package. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 2 .

4. In the step of associating the parcels having a designated delivery time with the blocks, if there are a plurality of parcels having delivery times designated for one block whose difference in delivery time is equal to or exceeds a predetermined value, the block is divided so that the plurality of parcels correspond to different blocks.

4. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 3.

5. The first determining step includes: estimating, for each of the blocks, a delivery time required within the block; determining whether a time constraint is satisfied based on a delivery time required within the block; and, re-planning the delivery sequence in units of blocks if the time constraint cannot be satisfied; The delivery plan creation method according to claim 2 , further comprising:

6. In the step of re-planning the delivery sequence in units of blocks, a block in which a required delivery time exceeds a threshold is divided and re-planned.

6. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 5.

7. The second determination step includes a step of determining a parking location for each delivery destination based on a delivery log and a positioning log related to past deliveries. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 1 .

8. In the step of determining a parking location, a parking location for each delivery destination is determined based on a parking location database previously acquired from a delivery log and a positioning log related to past deliveries; In the parking space database, a priority is set for each parking space according to the number of times the vehicle has been parked; determining a parking location for each delivery destination according to the priority; The delivery plan creating method according to claim 7 .

9. The priority is set in a plurality of ways according to attributes of the delivery date, In the step of determining the parking location, a parking location for each delivery destination is determined by referring to a priority according to an attribute of the delivery date of the current delivery.

9. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 8.

10. The second determination step includes a required time estimation step of estimating a required delivery time after parking for each parking location. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 7 .

11. the required time estimation step estimates the required delivery time using an estimation model determined based on required times for past deliveries obtained from the delivery log; The delivery plan creating method according to claim 10 .

12. The estimation model is an estimation model in which the number of destination buildings, the number of destinations, and the number of packages to be delivered after one parking session are explanatory variables, and the required delivery time is a response variable. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 11.

13. The second determination step includes creating a delivery plan that connects parking locations within each block; In the third determination step, the delivery plans within the block are connected to determine an overall delivery plan. The delivery plan creating method according to claim 7 .

14. A memory storing a program for executing each step of the delivery plan creation method according to any one of claims 1 to 13; A calculation processor; A delivery plan creation device comprising:

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