Estimation system, estimation method, and program

Abstract

Provided is an estimation system comprising: an industrial impact calculation unit configured so as to calculate a monetary production impact amount that a change has on a second industry, the monetary production impact amount being calculated on the basis of change information indicating the change in a first industry in which the change is observed, a monetary production amount in a second industry to which an enterprise to be evaluated belongs, and information on production inducement in the second industry from the first industry; and an enterprise impact calculation unit configured so as to calculate, on the basis of the monetary production impact amount, a monetary sales impact amount that the change has on the enterprise to be evaluated.

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a technique for analyzing the impact of events in the world on a company. [Background technology]

[0002] In modern society, in addition to the progress of globalization, the Internet technology has developed, and a lot of information is released every day from various media and SNS, etc. It is important to analyze and utilize this information to quickly catch events that affect business management, consider their impact, and reflect them in the company's strategy planning and decision-making.

[0003] Existing technology includes a method for extracting the latest topics from news information, analyzing the causal relationships between events using natural language processing technology, and analyzing the impact of each topic event on a company (Non-Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Non-patent literature]

[0004] [Non-Patent Document 1] xenoBRAIN, https: / / special-edition.xenobrain.jp / scenario-https: / / xenobrain.jp / articles / nikkekog / 9b4dacfcdcbb32b061c6c28e0f63ec96 [Non-Patent Document 2] Non-Patent Document 2: Input-Output Tables 2015 Input-Output Tables 2015 Input Coefficient Table, Inverse Matrix Coefficient Table Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, existing technologies are based on relational analysis using language analysis of text data such as news, and are therefore thought to be biased.In addition, language analysis processing using large amounts of text data is required in advance, making it difficult for companies and evaluators who are not experts in language analysis to build an analytical framework.

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above points, and aims to provide a technique for easily and quantitatively estimating the impact of world events on a company. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] According to the disclosed technology, Demand Show the change in the first industry where the change occurred demand change amount and the production value in the second industry to which the evaluated enterprise belongs, and the production inducement from the first industry to the second industry. By multiplying by the coefficient, an industry impact calculation unit configured to calculate a production impact amount of the change on the second industry; The above production impact amount and, The sales impact of the change on the company being evaluated Using the relational equation showing the relationship between a corporate impact calculator configured to calculate An estimation system is provided, comprising: Effect of the Invention

[0008] The disclosed technology makes it possible to easily and quantitatively estimate the impact that events in the world have on a company. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of an estimation system according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 2] 1 is a flowchart showing the operation of the estimation system. [Diagram 3] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an image of an inter-industry correlation. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the estimation system. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0010] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention (the present embodiment) will be described with reference to the drawings. The embodiment described below is merely an example, and the embodiment to which the present invention is applied is not limited to the following embodiment.

[0011] (System configuration example) An example of the configuration of an estimation system in this embodiment is shown in Fig. 1. As shown in Fig. 1, the estimation system in this embodiment includes a calculation unit 10, a numerical DB 20, an evaluation formula DB 30, a data storage unit 40, and an input / output unit 50.

[0012] The calculation unit 10 has an inter-industry correlation coefficient acquisition unit 11, an industry-enterprise relation calculation unit 12, an enterprise transaction relation calculation unit 13, a news information acquisition unit 14, a change amount generation unit 15, an industry influence calculation unit 16, and an enterprise influence calculation correction unit 17.

[0013] The numerical value DB20 includes a news DB21, a statistical information DB22, a corporate information DB23, an input-output table DB24, and an industrial production value DB25.

[0014] The evaluation formula DB30 includes an industry inter-enterprise relation formula DB31, an enterprise transaction relation calculation formula DB32, an industry influence calculation formula DB33, and an enterprise influence correction formula DB34.

[0015] Examples of operation of each unit, specific examples of formulas, etc. will be described later. The industrial inter-enterprise relation formula DB31, the enterprise transaction relation calculation formula DB32, the industry impact calculation formula DB33, and the enterprise impact correction formula DB34 store formulas 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, which will be described later. Each formula stored in the DB is, for example, a formula using variables. When performing calculations using the relevant formula, the formula can be read from the DB and the calculation can be performed by substituting the required values ​​for the variable parts. Furthermore, the coefficients used in the formulas can be coefficients stored in the data storage unit 40.

[0016] The estimation system may be composed of one device (computer) or multiple devices. For example, the numerical DB 20 and the calculation unit 10 may be separate devices. When the numerical DB 20 and the calculation unit 10 are separate devices, the calculation unit 10 may be called the "estimation system."

[0017] (Example of system operation) The operation of the estimation system will be described with reference to the flowchart in Fig. 2. The evaluator inputs the evaluation unit period from the input / output unit 50, and the calculation unit 10 executes the process for estimation according to the following flow. The estimation result is output from the input / output unit 50 and shown to the evaluator. The basic process flow will be described below, and a specific example will be given later.

[0018] <S0(ステップ0)> In S 0 , the evaluator inputs an evaluation unit period from the input / output unit 50 .

[0019] <s1> In S 1 , the inter-industry linkage coefficient acquisition unit 11 of the calculation unit 10 acquires the input coefficient and the production inducement coefficient from the input-output table DB 24 of the numerical DB 20 , and stores them in the data storage unit 40 .

[0020] <s2> In S2, the industrial-enterprise relation calculation unit 12 of the calculation unit 10 obtains sales information for each evaluation unit period of the enterprise to be evaluated from the enterprise information DB 23 of the numerical DB 20, obtains production value information for each industry for the corresponding period from the industrial production value DB 25, calculates the coefficients of the industrial-enterprise relation equation that can best fit this past data using statistical methods, and stores the coefficients in the data storage unit 40.

[0021] <s3> In S3, the corporate transaction relation calculation unit 13 of the calculation unit 10 acquires corporate transaction amount information from the corporate information DB 23 of the numerical value DB 20, acquires transaction amount information for each industry for the corresponding period from the industrial production amount DB 25, and acquires a corporate transaction relation calculation formula from the evaluation formula DB 30. Then, the corporate transaction relation calculation unit 13 uses this information and the corporate transaction relation calculation formula to calculate the transaction relations between the evaluation target company and each industry, and stores the calculation results in the data storage unit 40.

[0022] <s4> In S4, the news information acquisition unit 14 uses the news information acquired from the news information DB 21 to classify the news by industry in accordance with the industries in the input-output table used in S1, and extracts information on changes in demand and supply of products, etc. related to each industry.

[0023] <s5> In S5, the change amount generation unit 15 acquires a change amount based on the information acquired by the news information acquisition unit 14, or automatically sets a change amount in several stages.

[0024] <s6> In S6, the industry impact calculation unit 16 calculates the production impact amount on the industry to which the evaluation target company belongs from the inter-industry linkage coefficient stored in the data storage unit 40, the production amount of the industry to which the evaluation target company belongs, and the above-mentioned change amount.

[0025] <s7> In S7, the enterprise impact calculation correction unit 17 calculates the impact amount on the evaluation target enterprise from the production impact amount calculated in S6 and the industry inter-enterprise relation equation. The enterprise impact calculation correction unit 17 may be provided with an enterprise impact calculation unit, and the enterprise impact calculation unit may perform the process of S7.

[0026] <s8> In S8, the corporate impact calculation correction unit 17 refers to the transaction relationship information between the evaluation target company and each industry calculated by the corporate transaction relationship calculation unit 13, and corrects the impact amount on the evaluation target company calculated in S7.

[0027] <s9> In S9, the input / output unit 50 outputs the calculated amount of impact on the company and shows it to the evaluator.

[0028] <s10> In S10, after the evaluation period ends, the enterprise impact calculation correction unit 17 compares the calculated enterprise impact amount with the actual impact amount, and recalculates various coefficients to better fit the actual value. The recalculated coefficients can be used to estimate future impact amounts.

[0029] (Example) The impact of Covid-19 has caused major changes in supply and demand in various industries. Below, as a specific example of the operation of the estimation system described above, we will explain an example of estimating the impact on Company A of the increased demand for electronic information devices, such as personal computers, caused by the increase in the rate of teleworking. Below, we will explain the example in the order of the steps shown in Figure 2.

[0030] <s0> In S0, the evaluator inputs one month as the evaluation unit period through the input / output unit 50.

[0031] <s1> In S1, the inter-industry linkage coefficient acquisition unit 11 acquires Japan's 2015 input-output table (Non-Reference Document 2) from the input-output table DB 24, and uses the input-output table to read the inter-industry linkages (input coefficients and production inducement coefficients) and record them in the data storage unit 40.

[0032] Specifically, the input relationship (input coefficient table) in each industry is expressed as the input coefficient R_demand (i,j) The final demand production inducement information (inverse matrix coefficient table) is recorded in the data storage unit 40 as the production inducement coefficient R (i,j) The data is recorded in the data storage unit 40 as follows: where i, j represent the industry sector.

[0033] The input coefficient indicates the amount of raw materials, fuel, etc., input for production. More specifically, R_demand (i,j) indicates the input coefficient from industrial sector i to industrial sector j (the ratio of the input value to industrial sector j to the production value of industrial sector i). Note that "industrial sector" may also be referred to as "industry."

[0034] The production inducement coefficient is a coefficient that indicates how much production will occur in which industry when there is final demand in a certain final demand sector. Production inducement coefficient R (i,j) is the coefficient indicating the increase in production in industry sector j occurring against final demand in industry sector i.

[0035] Figure 3 shows an image of inter-industry relations. As shown in Figure 3, there are various industrial sectors, and they are connected by relationships such as input of raw materials from one industrial sector to another industrial sector, and supply of products from other industrial sectors to demand in one industrial sector. For example, Figure 3 shows that R_demand is the input of raw materials from sector 4 to sector 3. (S4,S3) Also shown is the supply of sector 3's output to sector 4.

[0036] <s2> In S2, the industrial-enterprise relation calculation unit 12 generates an industrial transaction relation calculation formula that represents the relationship between the past sales fluctuations of the evaluated enterprise and the production value fluctuations of the industry to which the enterprise belongs, based on the information obtained from the enterprise information DB 23 and the industrial production value DB 25, calculates coefficients, and records the coefficients in the data storage unit 40.

[0037] In this embodiment targeting Company A, the industrial enterprise relation calculation unit 12 performs fitting of past data to generate the following relational equation (Equation 1) which represents the relationship between Company A's monthly sales during a certain past period and the production value of the industrial sector 3 to which Company A belongs, calculates the coefficients a and b, and records them in the data storage unit 40.

[0038] Sales (A,t) =a+b×PV (S3,t) (Formula 1) In Equation 1, Sales (A,t) indicates the sales of company A in a certain month t, and PV (S3,t) indicates the production value of sector 3 in month t, and a and b are coefficients. For example, a is calculated to be 0.0005 and b is calculated to be 0.01.

[0039] <s3> In S3, the corporate transaction relationship calculation unit 13 classifies companies that have transaction relationships with the company to be evaluated into industries in accordance with the industrial classification (industrial sector classification) used in S1, and using the corporate transaction relationship calculation formula (Formula 2), adds up the transaction amounts between companies belonging to that industry and the company to be evaluated during the unit evaluation period for each industry, calculates the ratio of the total transaction amount to the total transaction amount of the company, and stores this in the data storage unit 40.

[0040] In this embodiment, each company that has a business relationship with Company A is classified by industry, and for each industry, the ratio of the total monthly transaction amount with Company A to the total transaction amount with Company A is calculated using Equation 2 and recorded.

[0041] R_TV (i,t) =Σ1 c TV (c_i,t) / TV (t) (Formula 2) In Equation 2, R_TV (i,t) denotes the ratio of the amount of transactions between company A and industry i in month t. c denotes a company, and Σ1 c TV (c_i,t) is the total transaction amount with Company A for the industry i in month t across all companies that do business with Company A. (t) is the total transaction amount of company A in month t.

[0042] <S4、S5> In S4, the news information acquisition unit 14 extracts information on changes in demand and supply of things related to each industry from information such as news, in accordance with the industries in the input-output table used in S1. In S5, the change amount generation unit 15 uses information on changes in demand and supply of a certain thing if the amount of change can be read from news, etc., and automatically sets the amount of change in several stages if quantitative information cannot be read.

[0043] In this example, it is assumed that the news information acquisition unit 14 and the change amount generation unit 15 have acquired information from the news information that the demand for personal computers will increase by 1.3 times as a result of an increase in the telework rate. In this example, since personal computers are a product of the industrial sector 4, a 1.3-fold increase in the demand for personal computers means that the production demand of the industrial sector 4 will increase by 1.3 times. The change amount generation unit 15 acquires "1.3 times" as the amount of change.

[0044] <s6> In S6, if the above change occurs, the industry impact calculation unit 16 calculates the industry impact amount from the inter-industry correlation coefficient recorded in S1 and the production amount of the industry to which the enterprise belongs.

[0045] As described above, in this embodiment, the demand increases by 1.3 times in the industrial sector 4. The industrial impact calculation unit 16 calculates this value and the production inducement coefficient R recorded in S1. (i,j) Using the above, the production impact on industrial sector 3 to which Company A belongs due to the above increase in demand is calculated using the following formula 3.

[0046] PV´ (S3,t) =PV (S3,t) ×Change (S4,t) ×R (S4,S3) = 10 trillion yen x 1.3 x 0.22 = 2.86 trillion yen (Equation 3) PV´ (S3,t) is the industrial production impact on industrial sector 3 in month t. PV (S3,t) is the production value of industry sector 3 in month t. (S4,t) is the change in demand in industry sector 4 in month t. R (S4,S3) is the production inducement coefficient from industrial sector 4 to industrial sector 3.

[0047] <s7> In S7, the corporate impact calculation correction unit 17 estimates the impact of the change on the company based on the change (production impact amount) in the entire industry to which the evaluated company belongs, using the relational equation between the sales fluctuations of the evaluated company recorded in S2 and the production value fluctuations in the industry to which the evaluated company belongs.

[0048] In this embodiment, the corporate impact calculation correction unit 17 uses the coefficients a and b obtained by the above formula (1) to calculate the sales impact of the increase in demand in industrial sector 4 on Company A based on the impact of the increase in demand in industrial sector 4 on industrial sector 3 using the following formula.

[0049] Sales´ (A,t) =a+b×PV´ (S3,t) = 0.0005 + 0.01 × 2.86 trillion yen = 0.291 trillion yen Sales´ (A,t) indicates the amount of sales impact to Company A in month t based on the amount of production impact to industrial sector 3.

[0050] <s8> In S8, the enterprise impact calculation correction unit 17 corrects the amount of impact on the target enterprise calculated in S7 using the business relationship information on the target enterprise recorded in S3.

[0051] Using the input-output coefficient (input coefficient) between industrial sectors 3 and 4 from the input-output table and the relationship coefficient between company A and industrial sector 4 from the corporate transaction information, the sales impact amount for company A calculated in S7 above is corrected using the following formula (4).

[0052] In other words, if the relationship between Company A and industrial sector 4, as seen from corporate information, is stronger than the relationship between industrial sectors 3 and 4 (input coefficient) as seen from the input-output table, then changes in supply and demand in industrial sector 4 are likely to have a stronger impact on Company A, so an adjustment is made.

[0053] Sales´´ (A,t) =Sales´ (A,t) ×(R_TV (S4,t) / R_demand (S4,S3) ) = 0.291 trillion yen × (0.24 / 0.2) = 0.3492 trillion yen (Equation 4) Sales´´ (A,t) is the adjustment amount for the impact of Company A's sales in month t. (S4,t) R_demand is the ratio of A's trade volume with industry sector 4 to A's total trade volume. (S4,S3) is the input coefficient from industry sector 4 to industry sector 3, to which Company A belongs.

[0054] <s9> In S9, the input / output unit 50 outputs an estimate of the amount of impact that a certain event will have on the target company. In this embodiment, the above-mentioned "0.3492 trillion yen" is output as the amount of impact on sales to Company A due to the increase in demand for personal computers, etc.

[0055] <s10> In S10, the corporate impact calculation correction unit 17 compares the actual impact amount on the target company with the estimated amount by this system after the fact, and automatically performs corrections as needed if a discrepancy occurs. This makes it possible to improve the estimation accuracy of the corporate impact. For correction, for example, the coefficients (e.g., a, b) are corrected so that the estimated value matches the actual value. In this embodiment, after the actual sales impact amount of Company A is released, the actual values ​​are accumulated and the relationship with the estimated value using this method is corrected.

[0056] (Example of device configuration) The estimation system according to the present embodiment can be realized, for example, by causing a computer to execute a program. This computer may be a physical computer or a virtual machine on the cloud.

[0057] That is, the estimation system can be realized by executing a program corresponding to the processing performed by the estimation system using hardware resources such as a CPU and memory built into a computer. The program can be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium (such as a portable memory) and stored or distributed. The program can also be provided via a network such as the Internet or email.

[0058] Fig. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the computer. The computer in Fig. 4 includes a drive device 1000, an auxiliary storage device 1002, a memory device 1003, a CPU 1004, an interface device 1005, a display device 1006, an input device 1007, an output device 1008, and the like, all of which are interconnected via a bus BS.

[0059] The program for realizing the processing on the computer is provided by a recording medium 1001 such as a CD-ROM or a memory card. When the recording medium 1001 storing the program is set in the drive device 1000, the program is installed from the recording medium 1001 to the auxiliary storage device 1002 via the drive device 1000. However, the program does not necessarily have to be installed from the recording medium 1001, but may be downloaded from another computer via a network. The auxiliary storage device 1002 stores the installed program as well as necessary files, data, etc.

[0060] The memory device 1003 reads out and stores the program from the auxiliary storage device 1002 when an instruction to start the program is received. The CPU 1004 realizes functions related to the light touch maintenance device 100 in accordance with the program stored in the memory device 1003. The interface device 1005 is used as an interface for connecting to a network, various measuring devices, exercise intervention devices, etc. The display device 1006 displays a GUI (Graphical User Interface) etc. according to a program. The input device 1007 is composed of a keyboard and mouse, buttons, a touch panel, etc., and is used to input various operation instructions. The output device 1008 outputs the calculation results.

[0061] (Effects of the embodiment) As described above, the technology according to the present embodiment utilizes input-output analysis and information held by companies, and uses corporate transaction information to calculate characteristics of corporate activities that cannot be captured by input-output analysis alone, thereby enabling even a layman to easily quantitatively estimate the impact of events occurring in the world on companies.

[0062] (Additional Note) This specification discloses at least the estimation system, estimation method, and program described in the following items. (Section 1) an industry impact calculation unit configured to calculate the production impact amount of the change on a second industry to which the evaluation target enterprise belongs, based on change information indicating the change in the first industry in which the change was observed, the production amount in the second industry to which the evaluation target enterprise belongs, and production inducement information from the first industry to the second industry; a company impact calculation unit configured to calculate a sales impact amount that the change has on the evaluation target company based on the production impact amount; An estimation system comprising: (Section 2) The corporate impact calculation unit calculates the sales impact amount using a coefficient of a relational equation indicating the relationship between the sales amount of the evaluation target company and the production amount in the second industry. 2. The estimation system according to claim 1. (Section 3) an industry-enterprise relation calculation unit configured to generate the relational equation by fitting the past data on the sales amount of the evaluation target enterprise and the past data on the production amount in the second industry; 3. The estimation system of claim 2, further comprising: (Section 4) a corporate impact calculation correction unit configured to correct the sales impact amount using a value representing a relationship between the evaluation target company and the first industry and a value representing a relationship between the second industry and the first industry; The estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: (Section 5) The value representing the relationship between the evaluation target company and the first industry is a ratio of a transaction amount between the evaluation target company and the first industry to a total transaction amount of the evaluation target company. 4. The estimation system according to claim 4. (Section 6) A method for estimating data to be executed by a estimating system, comprising: an industry impact calculation step of calculating the production impact of the change on a second industry based on change information indicating the change in a first industry where the change was observed, the production value in the second industry to which the evaluation target enterprise belongs, and production inducement information from the first industry to the second industry; a corporate impact calculation step of calculating the sales impact amount of the change on the evaluation target company based on the production impact amount; An estimation method that provides the above. (Section 7) A program for causing a computer to function as each component of the estimation system described in any one of paragraphs 1 to 5.

[0063] Although the present embodiment has been described above, the present invention is not limited to such a specific embodiment, and various modifications and variations are possible within the scope of the gist of the present invention described in the claims. [Explanation of symbols]

[0064] 10 Arithmetic section 11. Inter-industry Coefficient Acquisition Department 12 Industrial Inter-Enterprise Relations Calculation Department 13. Business Transactions and Accounting Department 14 News Information Acquisition Department 15 Variation generator 16 Industrial Impact Calculation Department 17 Corporate Impact Calculation Correction Department 20 Numerical Database 21 News DB 22 Statistical information DB 23 Company information DB 24 Input-Output Table DB 25 Industrial Production Value DB 30 Evaluation Formula DB 31 Industrial Inter-Enterprise Relations DB 32 Business Transaction Relationship Calculation Formula DB 33 Industry Impact Calculation Formula DB 34 Corporate influence correction formula DB 40 Data Storage Section 50 Input / output section 1000 Drive Device 1001 Recording media 1002 Auxiliary storage 1003 Memory device 1004 CPU 1005 Interface device 1006 Display device 1007 Input Device 1008 Output device

Claims

1. An industry impact calculation unit configured to calculate the production impact of a change in demand on a second industry to which the evaluated enterprise belongs by multiplying a demand change amount indicating the change in demand in a first industry in which the change in demand has been observed, the production value in the second industry to which the evaluated enterprise belongs, and a production inducement coefficient from the first industry to the second industry; a company impact calculation unit configured to calculate the sales impact amount by using a relational equation indicating a relationship between the production impact amount and a sales impact amount of the change on the evaluation target company; An estimation system comprising:

2. The enterprise impact calculation unit calculates the sales impact amount using a coefficient of a relational expression indicating a relationship between the sales amount of the evaluation target enterprise and the production amount in the second industry. The estimation system according to claim 1 .

3. an industry-enterprise relationship calculation unit configured to generate the relational equation by fitting the past data on the sales amount of the evaluation target enterprise and the past data on the production amount in the second industry; The estimation system of claim 2 further comprising:

4. a corporate impact calculation correction unit configured to correct the sales impact amount using a value representing a relationship between the evaluation target company and the first industry and a value representing a relationship between the second industry and the first industry; The estimation system according to claim 1 , further comprising:

5. The value representing the relationship between the evaluation target company and the first industry is a ratio of a transaction amount between the evaluation target company and the first industry to a total transaction amount of the evaluation target company. The estimation system according to claim 4.

6. A method for estimating data to be executed by a estimating system, comprising: an industry impact calculation step of multiplying a demand change amount indicating a change in demand in a first industry where the change in demand has been observed, the production value in a second industry to which the evaluation target enterprise belongs, and a production inducement coefficient from the first industry to the second industry, thereby calculating the production impact amount of the change on the second industry; a corporate impact calculation step of calculating the sales impact amount by using a relational equation showing the relationship between the production impact amount and the sales impact amount of the change on the evaluation target company; An estimation method that provides the above.

7. A program for causing a computer to function as each unit in the estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

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