Renewal planning device, renewal planning method, and renewal planning program

Abstract

The plan creation unit (21) creates an update plan indicating the update timing for each of multiple parts that make up the equipment, for each combination of multiple upper limit rates and multiple lower limit rates. The plan creation unit (21) sets each of the multiple parts as a target part and creates an update plan in which the update timing for the target part is set to a period that is equal to or less than a usage upper limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the upper limit rate for the target combination and is equal to or greater than a usage lower limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the lower limit rate for the target combination. The presentation unit (24) presents the created update plan for each combination.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a technology for supporting the creation of a part replacement plan. [Background technology]

[0002] A maintenance plan is created that determines the timing of equipment maintenance, and the equipment is maintained according to the maintenance plan. The maintenance cost and risk of failure change depending on the timing of maintenance.

[0003] Patent Document 1 describes a technology for formulating a maintenance plan that reduces both the overall cost and risk involved in maintenance. In Patent Document 1, after formulating one maintenance plan that satisfies constraints, the maintenance plan is improved by crossover and mutation so that the constraints are satisfied, and multiple maintenance plans are created and presented to the user. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2005-157793 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] Patent Document 1 describes a method for creating a maintenance plan for an entire facility to satisfy constraints. In Patent Document 1, the constraints include a period during which maintenance will be performed. Therefore, the maintenance plan created in Patent Document 1 is a plan that ensures that maintenance is performed within the period specified by the constraints. When formulating an update plan for each component that makes up a piece of equipment, it is possible to create an update plan for each component using its specified lifespan. For example, there are various possible update plans, such as an update plan that uses a component until its lifespan in exchange for accepting the risk of failure, and an update plan that replaces a component earlier than its lifespan to reduce the risk of failure. The best update plan depends on the user's preferences. An object of the present disclosure is to make it possible to present a plurality of update plans for each component that constitutes one piece of equipment, which update plans correspond to the preferences of various users. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The update planning device according to the present disclosure includes: a plan creation unit that creates an update plan indicating the update timing of each of a plurality of parts that constitute equipment for each combination of a plurality of upper limit ratios and a plurality of lower limit ratios, the plan creation unit creating an update plan that sets the update timing of each of the plurality of parts as a target part during a period that is equal to or less than a usage upper limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the upper limit ratio in the target combination and is equal to or greater than a usage lower limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the lower limit ratio in the target combination; a presentation unit that presents the update plan created by the plan creation unit for each of the combinations; Equipped with. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] In the present disclosure, each combination of a plurality of upper limit percentages and a plurality of lower limit percentages is set as a target combination. Then, for the target combination, an update plan is created to update the part during a period that is equal to or less than the upper usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the upper limit percentage and equal to or greater than the lower usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the lower limit percentage. In this way, multiple update plans that meet various user preferences are created and presented. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of an update planning device 10 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] 3 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing by the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a plan creation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a plan creation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a presentation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a presentation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 7] 3 is a flowchart showing the flow of a plan creation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a plan search process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a plan search process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of a plan search process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram of an update planning device 10 according to a second embodiment. [Figure 12] 10 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing by the update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment. [Figure 13] FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of a method for converting a stoppage period into a cost according to the second embodiment. [Figure 14] FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of a naming process according to the second embodiment. [Figure 15] FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram of an update planning device 10 according to a third embodiment. [Figure 16] 10 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing by the update planning device 10 according to the third embodiment. [Figure 17] FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of the effect of the third embodiment. [Figure 18] FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram of a presentation process according to a fourth modification. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] Embodiment 1 ***Configuration Description*** The configuration of an update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. The update planning device 10 is a computer. The update planning device 10 includes hardware such as a processor 11, a memory 12, a storage 13, and a communication interface 14. The processor 11 is connected to other hardware via signal lines and controls the other hardware.

[0010] The processor 11 is an IC that performs processing. IC stands for Integrated Circuit. Specific examples of the processor 11 include a CPU, a DSP, and a GPU. CPU stands for Central Processing Unit. DSP stands for Digital Signal Processor. GPU stands for Graphics Processing Unit.

[0011] The memory 12 is a storage device that temporarily stores data. Specific examples of the memory 12 include SRAM and DRAM. SRAM stands for Static Random Access Memory. DRAM stands for Dynamic Random Access Memory.

[0012] The storage 13 is a storage device that stores data. A specific example of the storage 13 is an HDD. HDD is an abbreviation for Hard Disk Drive. The storage 13 may also be a portable recording medium such as an SD (registered trademark) memory card, CompactFlash (registered trademark), NAND flash, a flexible disk, an optical disk, a compact disk, a Blu-ray (registered trademark) disk, or a DVD. SD is an abbreviation for Secure Digital. DVD is an abbreviation for Digital Versatile Disk.

[0013] The communication interface 14 is an interface for communicating with external devices. Specific examples of the communication interface 14 include Ethernet (registered trademark), USB, and HDMI (registered trademark) ports. USB stands for Universal Serial Bus. HDMI stands for High-Definition Multimedia Interface.

[0014] The update planning device 10 includes, as functional components, a plan creation unit 21, a prevention calculation unit 22, a failure calculation unit 23, and a presentation unit 24. The functions of the functional components of the update planning device 10 are realized by software. The storage 13 stores a program that realizes the function of each functional component of the update planning device 10. This program is read into the memory 12 by the processor 11 and executed by the processor 11. In this way, the function of each functional component of the update planning device 10 is realized.

[0015] The storage 13 stores a part lifespan 31, part specifications 32, and a deterioration model 33. The part lifespan 31 indicates the lifespan of each part that constitutes the equipment. The part specifications 32 indicate specifications including the price, renewal labor costs, and time required for renewal for each part that constitutes the equipment. Here, at least some of the parts that constitute the equipment have an inclusion relationship in which a parent part contains another child part. The part specifications 32 also indicate this inclusion relationship. The deterioration model 33 is a model that indicates the probability of failure depending on the number of years that have passed since the equipment was last installed.

[0016] 1 shows only one processor 11. However, there may be a plurality of processors 11, and the plurality of processors 11 may cooperate to execute programs that realize the respective functions.

[0017] ***Explanation of Operation*** The operation of the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. The operation procedure of the update planning device 10 according to the embodiment 1 corresponds to the update planning method according to the embodiment 1. Furthermore, the program that realizes the operation of the update planning device 10 according to the embodiment 1 corresponds to the update planning program according to the embodiment 1.

[0018] The flow of processing performed by the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. (Step S11: Plan creation process) The plan creation unit 21 sets a plurality of upper limit ratios and a plurality of lower limit ratios. The plan creation unit 21 sets each combination of the plurality of upper limit ratios and the plurality of lower limit ratios as a target combination. Here, the plan creation unit 21 excludes from the target combinations any combination in which the lower limit ratio is higher than the upper limit ratio. The plan creation unit 21 sets each of the multiple parts that make up the equipment as a target part. The plan creation unit 21 calculates an upper usage limit by multiplying the lifespan of the target part indicated by the part lifespan 31 by an upper limit rate in the target combination. The plan creation unit 21 calculates a lower usage limit by multiplying the lifespan of the target part indicated by the part lifespan 31 by a lower limit rate in the target combination. The plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan to update the target part during a period that is equal to or less than the upper usage limit and equal to or greater than the lower usage limit. In other words, the upper usage limit is the maximum period during which the part can be used, and the lower usage limit is the minimum period during which the part is used. At this time, if there is an inclusion relationship, the plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan assuming that when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. Here, the plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan for the period up to the expiration date of the equipment. For example, if the expiration date of the equipment is 25 years from installation, the plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan from the present time to the 25th year from installation of the equipment. Note that updating a part specifically means replacing a part or performing maintenance.

[0019] A specific example will be described with reference to FIGS. The components that make up the equipment are units, boards, and plates. The lifespan of a unit is 10 years, that of a board is 8 years, and that of a plate is 6 years. The unit is the parent component of the board. FIG. 3 shows a combination in which the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 1.0, a combination in which the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5, and a combination in which the upper limit ratio is 0.5 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5. In a combination where the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 1.0, the upper limit of unit usage is 10 years and the lower limit is 10 years. The upper limit of substrate usage is 8 years and the lower limit is 8 years. The upper limit of plate usage is 6 years and the lower limit is 6 years. In a combination where the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5, the upper limit of unit usage is 10 years and the lower limit is 5 years. The upper limit of substrate usage is 8 years and the lower limit is 4 years. The upper limit of plate usage is 6 years and the lower limit is 3 years. In a combination where the upper limit ratio is 0.5 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5, the upper limit of unit usage is 5 years and the lower limit is 5 years. The upper limit of substrate usage is 4 years and the lower limit is 4 years. The upper limit of plate usage is 3 years and the lower limit is 3 years. The plan creation unit 21 creates an update plan for each of these combinations.

[0020] Let's say you want to create an update plan for a combination where the upper limit ratio is 1.0 and the lower limit ratio is 0.5. In this case, it is necessary to meet the conditions that the target part must be updated during a period that is below the upper limit of usage and above the lower limit of usage, and that when the parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. Then, as shown in Figure 4, update plan A is created as an update plan that meets the conditions. On the other hand, update plan B and update plan C do not meet the conditions. Update plan B does not meet the conditions because the board, which is a child part, was not updated when the unit was updated. Update plan C does not meet the conditions because the unit's lower limit of usage is five years, but it is updated every four years.

[0021] The processes of steps S12 and S13 are executed for each update plan created in step S11.

[0022] (Step S12: Preventive calculation processing) The preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost and downtime required for preventive maintenance when a plurality of parts constituting the equipment are updated in accordance with the target update plan. Here, the preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost and downtime until the expiration date of the equipment. Specifically, the preventive calculation unit 22 refers to the part specifications 32 to obtain the price and replacement labor cost of each part, and the time required for replacement. The preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost of preventive maintenance from the price and replacement labor cost of the part, and calculates the downtime from the time required for replacement. Existing technology may be used to calculate the cost of preventive maintenance and the downtime.

[0023] (Step S13: Fault calculation process) The failure calculation unit 23 calculates the cost and downtime required to deal with failures when multiple parts constituting the equipment are updated in accordance with the target update plan. Here, the failure calculation unit 23 calculates the cost and downtime until the expiration date of the equipment. Specifically, the failure calculation unit 23 performs a failure simulation for each component of the equipment using a deterioration model 33 that indicates the probability of failure depending on the age of the component. The failure simulation can be performed using existing technology. This allows the cost of responding to the failure and the downtime period to be calculated.

[0024] (Step S14: Presentation process) 5, the presentation unit 24 presents each update plan created in step S11. At this time, the presentation unit 24 presents, for each update plan, the cost and downtime required for preventive maintenance calculated in step S12, and the cost and downtime required for failure response calculated in step S13. As shown in FIG. 6, the presentation unit 24 may present each update plan by plotting it in a two-dimensional space having an axis representing the total cost of preventive maintenance and the cost of responding to failures, and an axis representing the total downtime period for preventive maintenance and the downtime period for responding to failures.

[0025] The user selects the update plan that best suits their needs from the multiple update plans presented.

[0026] The plan creation process (step S11 in FIG. 2) according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. Here, the upper limit rate is set in increments of value a, and the lower limit rate is set in increments of value b. However, the upper limit rate and the lower limit rate do not need to be set in increments of a fixed value.

[0027] (Step S21: Data reading process) The plan creation unit 21 reads the part life 31 and the part specifications 32 .

[0028] (Step S22: Variable setting process) The schedule preparation unit 21 sets the lower limit value and upper limit value of the upper limit ratio max_w to s and t, respectively. The schedule preparation unit 21 also sets the lower limit value and upper limit value of the lower limit ratio min_w to u and v, respectively.

[0029] (Step S23: Upper limit initialization process) The plan creation unit 21 sets the lower limit value s as the initial value of the upper limit ratio max_w.

[0030] (Step S24: Upper limit determination process) The plan creation unit 21 determines whether the upper limit ratio max_w is greater than the upper limit value t. If the upper limit ratio max_w is greater than the upper limit value t, the plan creation unit 21 proceeds to step S30. On the other hand, if the upper limit ratio max_w is equal to or less than the upper limit value t, the plan creation unit 21 proceeds to step S25.

[0031] (Step S25: Lower limit initialization process) The plan creation unit 21 sets the lower limit value u as the initial value of the lower limit rate min_w.

[0032] (Step S26: Lower limit determination process) The plan creation unit 21 determines whether the lower limit rate min_w is greater than the upper limit value v. If the lower limit rate min_w is greater than the upper limit value v, the plan preparation unit 21 proceeds to step S29. On the other hand, if the lower limit rate min_w is equal to or less than the upper limit value v, the plan preparation unit 21 proceeds to step S27.

[0033] (Step S27: Combination setting process) The plan creation unit 21 sets an upper limit of utilization for each part by multiplying the lifespan of the part by an upper limit rate max_w. The plan creation unit 21 sets a lower limit of utilization for each part by multiplying the lifespan of the part by a lower limit rate min_w. The plan creation unit 21 also identifies inter-part dependency relationships. Then, the plan creating unit 21 sets the upper and lower usage limits of each component and the dependency relationships between the components together as one combination.

[0034] (Step S28: Lower limit update process) The schedule preparation unit 21 increases the lower limit ratio min_w by the value b, and then returns the process to step S26.

[0035] (Step S29: Upper limit update process) The schedule preparation unit 21 increases the upper limit ratio max_w by the value a. Then, the schedule preparation unit 21 returns the process to step S24.

[0036] (Step S30: Plan search process) The plan creation unit 21 sets each combination set in step S27 as a target combination. For the target combination, the plan creation unit 21 searches for an update plan that satisfies the condition that the target parts are updated during a period that is equal to or less than the upper usage limit and equal to or greater than the lower usage limit, and that if there is an inclusion relationship, when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. In addition, there are cases where a plurality of update plans are identified for one combination. In the first embodiment, the plan creating unit 21 is assumed to identify all update plans.

[0037] The plan search process (step S30 in FIG. 7) according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. The plan creation unit 21 sets a constraint condition as follows: if the target part is updated during a period when the usage is below the upper limit and above the lower limit, and if there is an inclusion relationship, when the parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. Here, an explanation will be given on the assumption that an update plan indicating in which year the update will be performed is created. Similar processing can also be performed in the case of creating an update plan indicating in which month the update will be performed, rather than in which year. As a premise for setting the conditions, the plan creation unit 21 sets 1 for each part in each year until the expiration date of the equipment if the part is to be updated, and 0 for each year if the part is not to be updated.

[0038] With reference to FIG. 8, a method for setting condition 1, that is, that the target part be updated within a period equal to or less than the usage upper limit, will be described. The plan creation unit 21 sets the condition that the number of updates is one or more times for all consecutive periods of the usage upper limit as condition 1. In other words, condition 1 is the condition that the total value of the periods of all consecutive periods of the usage upper limit is one or more. For example, if the usage limit is 8 years, then condition 1 would be: the total value from the first year through the eighth year is 1 or greater, the total value from the second year through the ninth year is 1 or greater, and so on.

[0039] A method for setting condition 2, that is, that the target part be updated within a period equal to or greater than the lower usage limit, will be described with reference to FIG. The plan creation unit 21 sets, as condition 2, a condition that the number of updates is one or less for all consecutive periods of the usage lower limit. In other words, condition 2 is a condition that the total value for all consecutive periods of the usage lower limit is one or less. However, no updates are made for the period before the first usage lower limit after the installation of the equipment. Therefore, the total value for the period before the first usage lower limit after the installation of the equipment is zero. For example, suppose the minimum usage limit is four years. Then, condition 2 is that the total value from the first year through the fourth year is less than or equal to 1, the total value from the second year through the fourth year is less than or equal to 1, etc. Condition 2 also includes the condition that the total value from the first year through the third year is zero.

[0040] With reference to FIG. 10, a method for setting condition 3, in which if there is an inclusion relationship, child components are also updated when a parent component is updated, will be described. The plan creation unit 21 sets, as condition 3, a condition that the value of the parent part is equal to or less than the value of the child part in each year. For example, suppose a board is a sub-component of a unit. In this case, condition 3 is that the value of the unit is less than or equal to the value of the board in every year. If there is a year, such as the sixth year, in which the value of the unit is 1 and the value of the board is 0, condition 3 is not met.

[0041] ***Effects of the First Embodiment*** As described above, the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment sets each combination of a plurality of upper limit rates and a plurality of lower limit rates as a target combination. Then, for the target combination, the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment creates an update plan for updating the part during a period that is equal to or less than the upper usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the upper limit rate and is equal to or greater than the lower usage limit obtained by multiplying the part's lifespan by the lower limit rate. In this way, a plurality of update plans that meet various user preferences are created and presented.

[0042] When there is an inclusion relationship, the update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment creates an update plan assuming that when a parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. As a result, an appropriate update plan is created for multiple parts that make up the equipment.

[0043] The update planning device 10 according to the first embodiment automatically creates a plurality of update plans without human intervention, eliminating variations depending on the creator of the update plans.

[0044] ***Other Configurations*** <Variation 1> In the first embodiment, in step S30 of Fig. 7, when multiple update plans are identified for one combination, the plan creation unit 21 identifies all of the update plans. However, the plan creation unit 21 may identify only some of the update plans. As a specific example, the plan creation unit 21 may identify only the update plans with a reference number that has a small value for the weighted sum of cost and downtime. The cost here is the sum of the cost for preventive maintenance and the cost for troubleshooting. The downtime here is the sum of the downtime due to preventive maintenance and the downtime due to troubleshooting. The reference number is a value of 1 or more. When the reference number is 1, only the best update plan is identified. By changing the weights of cost and downtime, it is possible to specify an update plan that prioritizes low cost, an update plan that prioritizes short downtime, an update plan that balances cost and downtime, etc. The plan creation unit 21 may specify an update plan for multiple weights.

[0045] <Variation 2> In the first embodiment, each functional component is realized by software. However, as a second modification, each functional component may be realized by hardware. The differences between the first embodiment and the second modification will be described below.

[0046] When each functional component is realized by hardware, the update planning device 10 includes an electronic circuit instead of the processor 11, the memory 12, and the storage 13. The electronic circuit is a dedicated circuit for realizing the functions of each functional component, the memory 12, and the storage 13.

[0047] Possible electronic circuits include single circuits, composite circuits, programmed processors, parallel programmed processors, logic ICs, GAs, ASICs, and FPGAs. GA stands for Gate Array. ASIC stands for Application Specific Integrated Circuit. FPGA stands for Field-Programmable Gate Array. Each functional component may be realized by one electronic circuit, or each functional component may be realized by distributing it among a plurality of electronic circuits.

[0048] <Variation 3> As a third modification, some of the functional components may be realized by hardware, and other functional components may be realized by software.

[0049] The processor 11, memory 12, storage 13, and electronic circuitry are collectively referred to as a processing circuit. In other words, the functions of the respective functional components are realized by the processing circuit.

[0050] Furthermore, the term "unit" in the above description may be read as a "circuit," "step," "procedure," "process," or "processing circuit."

[0051] Embodiment 2 The second embodiment differs from the first embodiment in that each outage period is converted into a cost and a name is assigned to the renewal plan. In the second embodiment, this difference will be explained, and explanation of the same points will be omitted.

[0052] ***Configuration Description*** The configuration of the update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 1 in that the update planning device 10 includes, as functional components, a name assignment unit 25 and a parameter change unit 26. The functions of the name assignment unit 25 and the parameter change unit 26 are realized by software or hardware, like the other functional components. 1 in that an economic loss parameter 34 is stored in the storage 13. The economic loss parameter 34 is a parameter for converting a downtime period into a cost.

[0053] ***Explanation of Operation*** The flow of processing performed by the update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. The process of step S31 is the same as the process of step S11 in FIG.

[0054] The processes of steps S32 and S33 are executed for each update plan created in step S31.

[0055] (Step S32: Preventive calculation processing) As in the first embodiment, the preventive calculation unit 22 calculates the cost and downtime required for preventive maintenance when a plurality of parts constituting the equipment are updated in accordance with the target update plan. The prevention calculation unit 22 converts the calculated outage period into a cost based on the economic loss parameter 34 .

[0056] (Step S33: Fault calculation processing) As in the first embodiment, the failure calculation unit 23 calculates the cost and downtime required to deal with a failure when a plurality of components constituting the equipment are updated in accordance with the target update plan. The failure calculation unit 23 converts the calculated outage period into a cost based on the economic loss parameter 34 .

[0057] 13, a specific example of the method for converting the shutdown period into costs in steps S32 and S33 will be described. Here, a case where the prevention calculation unit 22 converts the shutdown period into costs in step S32 will be described. However, the same applies to the case where the failure calculation unit 23 converts the shutdown period into costs in step S33. In Figure 13, the number of users, the value of user time, the additional travel time, and available time are stored as economic loss parameters 34. Here, opportunity loss (yen) = user time value (yen / person·minute) × additional travel time (minutes) × number of users (person / day) × downtime due to breakdown / 24 × 24 / available time. (1) The value per person (yen / person) due to the increased travel time is calculated by multiplying the user's time value (yen / person / minute) by the additional travel time (minutes). (2) The value for all users (yen / day) due to the additional travel time per day is calculated by multiplying (1) by the number of users. (3) The value for all users (yen) due to the additional travel time is calculated by multiplying (2) by the downtime due to the breakdown / 24. (4) The value multiplied by the impact on available time is calculated by multiplying (3) by 24 / available time. For example, if the downtime due to the breakdown is 10 hours, the magnitude of the impact will differ depending on whether it is 10 hours out of 12 available hours or 10 hours out of 24 available hours. Therefore, the degree of impact is calculated by multiplying (24 / available time).

[0058] In Figure 13, this calculation converts the downtime due to preventive maintenance in each update plan into a cost and sets it as an opportunity loss due to preventive maintenance. Similarly, the downtime due to failure response in each update plan is converted into a cost and sets it as an opportunity loss due to failure response.

[0059] (Step S34: Naming process) The naming unit 25 assigns names to a plurality of update plans according to a combination of the total amount of the cost for preventive maintenance and the amount obtained by converting the downtime for preventive maintenance, and the total amount of the cost for responding to a failure and the amount obtained by converting the downtime for preventive maintenance. Specifically, the name assignment unit 25 prepares a plurality of pairs of names and naming rules. The name assignment unit 25 identifies an update plan that matches each pair of naming rules from the plurality of update plans. Then, the name assignment unit 25 assigns a name that is the same as the pair of naming rules to the identified update plans. In this case, there is a possibility that names will be assigned only to some of the update plans, and no names will be assigned to the remaining update plans.

[0060] In Figure 14, three names are set: total minimum, thorough maintenance, and corrective maintenance-focused. The naming rule for the name "total minimum" is that the sum of cost and opportunity loss is minimum. The cost here refers to the sum of the cost for preventive maintenance and the cost for responding to a failure. Furthermore, the opportunity loss here refers to the sum of the opportunity loss for preventive maintenance and the opportunity loss for responding to a failure. The naming unit 25 identifies an update plan with the smallest sum of cost and opportunity loss from multiple update plans, and assigns the name "total minimum" to the identified update plan. The naming rule for the name "solid maintenance" is that the failure response cost must be minimized. The failure response cost here is the sum of the cost of responding to the failure and the opportunity loss. The naming unit 25 identifies an update plan from multiple update plans that has the smallest sum of the cost of responding to the failure and the opportunity loss, and assigns the name "solid maintenance" to the identified update plan. The naming rule for the name "corrective maintenance centered" is that preventive maintenance costs should be minimized. The preventive maintenance costs here are the sum of the costs due to preventive maintenance and the opportunity loss. The naming unit 25 identifies an update plan from multiple update plans that has the smallest total of the costs due to preventive maintenance and the opportunity loss, and names the identified update plan "corrective maintenance centered."

[0061] (Step S35: Presentation process) 14, the presentation unit 24 presents each update plan created in step S31. At this time, the presentation unit 24 presents, for each update plan, the cost of preventive maintenance calculated in step S32 and the opportunity loss obtained by converting the downtime into costs, and the cost of responding to a failure calculated in step S33 and the opportunity loss obtained by converting the downtime into costs. Furthermore, for an update plan that has been given a name, the presentation unit 24 presents the given name. The presentation unit 24 may present the name, the cost of preventive maintenance, and the cost of responding to failures for each update plan, and may also indicate the range of fluctuations in the cost of responding to failures. The cost of responding to failures is calculated using a deterioration model 33. The deterioration model 33 is a model that indicates the probability of failures occurring. Therefore, when calculating the cost of responding to failures that may occur with a certain probability or higher, rather than the cost that occurs with the highest probability, there is a certain range. Therefore, the presentation unit 24 may present the range of the cost of responding to failures. The presentation unit 24 may also indicate the maximum and minimum values ​​of the cost of responding to failures, and the portion where the probability is higher than a standard.

[0062] (Step S36: Parameter change determination process) The parameter change unit 26 determines whether or not the economic loss parameter 34 needs to be changed. Specifically, the parameter change unit 26 determines whether or not the user has instructed to change the economic loss parameter 34. If the user has instructed to change the economic loss parameter 34, the parameter change unit 26 proceeds to step S37. On the other hand, if the user has not instructed to change the economic loss parameter 34, the parameter change unit 26 ends the process.

[0063] (Step S38: Parameter change processing) The parameter change unit 26 changes the economic loss parameter 34 in accordance with the user's instruction. Then, the parameter change unit 26 returns the process to step S32. Note that in steps S32 and S33, it is only necessary to perform the process of converting the downtime period into costs.

[0064] ***Effects of the Second Embodiment*** As described above, the update planning device 10 according to the second embodiment converts the downtime period for each update plan into a cost and presents the converted cost. This makes it possible to compare multiple update plans based on the cost alone, making the comparison easier. This makes it easier to select a preferred update plan from multiple update plans.

[0065] The update plan device 10 according to the second embodiment assigns a name to the update plan based on a naming rule. This allows the general characteristics of the update plan to be grasped only from the name, making it easier to select a preferred update plan from among multiple update plans.

[0066] Embodiment 3 The third embodiment differs from the first and second embodiments in that a new update plan is presented when an unplanned part update is performed or when a planned part update is not performed. In the third embodiment, this difference will be explained, and an explanation of the same points will be omitted. In the third embodiment, a case will be described in which a function is added to the first embodiment. However, it is also possible to add a function to the second embodiment.

[0067] ***Configuration Description*** The configuration of the update planning device 10 according to the third embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 1 in that the update planning device 10 includes an unplanned detection unit 27 as a functional component. The function of the unplanned detection unit 27 is realized by software or hardware, like the other functional components. 1 in that an update history 35 and an implementation plan 36 are stored in the storage 13. The update history 35 is update history information for each component. The implementation plan 36 is the update plan that is being adopted.

[0068] ***Explanation of Operation*** The flow of processing performed by the update planning device 10 according to the third embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. (Step S41: Information reading process) The unplanned detection unit 27 reads the update history 35 and the implementation plan 36 .

[0069] (Step S42: Unplanned detection process) The unplanned detection unit 27 determines whether or not there is any point in the part update history indicated by the update history 35 that is not in accordance with the plan indicated by the implementation plan 36. Specifically, the unplanned detection unit 27 determines whether or not an unplanned state has occurred in which an update of a part has been performed outside the plan indicated by the implementation plan 36, or an update of a part has not been performed according to the plan indicated by the implementation plan 36. An unplanned update of a part means that one of the multiple parts has been updated at a time that is not scheduled for update in the implementation plan 36. A part update that has not been performed according to plan means that one of the multiple parts has not been updated at a time that is scheduled for update in the update plan. If the unplanned state is reached, the unplanned detection unit 27 proceeds to step S43 to recreate the update plan. On the other hand, if the unplanned state is not reached, the unplanned detection unit 27 ends the process.

[0070] (Step S43: Plan creation process) The plan creation unit 21 creates multiple update plans, similar to step S11 in FIG. 2. However, the plan creation unit 21 creates multiple update plans taking into account the number of years that have passed since each part was updated. That is, in the first embodiment, multiple update plans were created under the assumption that all parts were new. However, in the third embodiment, each part may have been used for a certain period of time, and so multiple update plans are created taking this into consideration. Specifically, the plan creation unit 21 may determine the upper and lower usage limits for each part based on the time of the most recent update.

[0071] The processes in steps S44 and S45 are the same as the processes in steps S12 and S13 in FIG.

[0072] (Step S46: Presentation process) Similar to step S14 in FIG. 2, the presentation unit 24 presents each update plan created in step S41, as well as the cost and downtime for preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime for responding to failures for each update plan. At this time, the presentation unit 24 may present the cost and downtime required for preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime required for troubleshooting when the implementation plan 36 is implemented. Furthermore, the presentation unit 24 may present the cost and downtime required for preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime required for troubleshooting, and the difference between these costs and downtime required for each update plan created in step S41 and the cost and downtime required for troubleshooting when the implementation plan 36 is implemented.

[0073] ***Effects of the Third Embodiment*** As described above, the update planning device 10 according to the third embodiment presents a new update plan when an unplanned part update is implemented or when a planned part update is not implemented. This makes it possible to adopt an appropriate update plan that takes into account the occurrence of an unplanned state. As a result, it becomes possible to reduce at least one of the cost and the downtime.

[0074] The effect of the third embodiment will be specifically described with reference to FIG. In Figure 17, as in the example of Figure 3, the components that make up the equipment are a unit, a board, and a plate. The lifespan of a unit is 10 years, that of a board is 8 years, and that of a plate is 6 years. The unit is the parent component of the board. Suppose a unit breaks down in the fourth year, resulting in an unplanned unit replacement. In this case, the implementation plan 36 schedules a unit replacement in the eighth year. However, since the unit was replaced in the fourth year, the unit replacement in the eighth year would be excessive. Therefore, the plan creation unit 21 creates a new replacement plan when the unit is replaced in the fourth year. For example, the plan creation unit 21 creates a replacement plan to replace the unit and circuit board in the 12th year, eight years after the unit replacement in the fourth year. This prevents excessive replacement and can prevent the occurrence of unnecessary preventive maintenance costs, etc. Regarding plates, the new renewal plan also stipulates that they will be renewed in the sixth year, as in Implementation Plan 36. This is because, at the time the new renewal plan is drawn up, four years will have already passed since the plates were issued.

[0075] ***Other Configurations*** <Variation 4> As described in the second embodiment, the update planning device 10 includes the naming unit 25, and the naming unit 25 may give a name to each newly created update plan. Then, the presentation unit 24 may present each named update plan together with the current plan. At this time, as shown in FIG. 18, the presentation unit 24 may present the cost of preventive maintenance and the cost of troubleshooting for each update plan, and may also indicate the range of fluctuation in the cost of troubleshooting.

[0076] <Variation 5> When the time for equipment renewal approaches, the plan creation unit 21 may create an renewal plan for continuing to use the equipment without renewal. As a result, the prevention calculation unit 22 and the failure calculation unit 23 calculate the costs and downtime period for continuing to use the equipment without renewal. Then, the presentation unit 24 presents the calculated costs and downtime period. At this time, the presentation unit 24 may also present the costs for renewing the equipment. This makes it possible to compare and consider the case where the equipment is renewed with the case where the equipment is not renewed. As explained in the second embodiment, the prevention calculation unit 22 and the failure calculation unit 23 may convert the downtime period into a cost. This makes it possible to compare the case where the equipment is renewed with the case where the equipment is not renewed from the viewpoint of cost.

[0077] The embodiments and modifications of the present disclosure have been described above. Some of these embodiments and modifications may be combined and implemented. Also, one or more of them may be implemented partially. Note that the present disclosure is not limited to the above embodiments and modifications, and various modifications are possible as needed. [Explanation of symbols]

[0078] 10 Update planning device, 11 Processor, 12 Memory, 13 Storage, 14 Communication interface, 21 Plan creation unit, 22 Prevention calculation unit, 23 Failure calculation unit, 24 Presentation unit, 25 Naming unit, 26 Parameter change unit, 27 Unplanned detection unit, 31 Part life, 32 Part specifications, 33 Degradation model, 34 Economic loss parameters, 35 Update history, 36 Implementation plan.

Claims

1. a plan creation unit that creates an update plan indicating the update timing of each of a plurality of parts that constitute equipment for each combination of a plurality of upper limit ratios and a plurality of lower limit ratios, the plan creation unit creating an update plan that sets the update timing of each of the plurality of parts as a target part during a period that is equal to or less than a usage upper limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the upper limit ratio in the target combination and is equal to or greater than a usage lower limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the lower limit ratio in the target combination; a presentation unit that presents the update plan created by the plan creation unit for each combination; An update planning device comprising:

2. At least some of the plurality of components have an inclusion relationship in which a parent component includes another child component, When the inclusion relationship exists, the plan creation unit creates the update plan assuming that when the parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. The update planning device according to claim 1 .

3. The plan creation unit creates the update plan for each of the target combinations by identifying a plan that satisfies the following constraints: Condition 1 that the number of updates is one or more in all consecutive periods of the upper usage limit; Condition 2 that the number of updates is one or less in all consecutive periods of the lower usage limit; and Condition 3 that, if the inclusion relationship exists, when the parent part is updated, the child part is also updated. The update planning device according to claim 2 .

4. The update planning device further a preventive calculation unit that calculates, for each update plan created by the plan creation unit, a cost and a downtime period required for preventive maintenance when the plurality of parts are updated according to the update plan; a failure calculation unit that calculates, for each of the update plans, the costs and downtime required for responding to a failure when the plurality of parts are updated according to the update plan; Equipped with The presentation unit presents, for each of the update plans, the cost and downtime of the preventive maintenance and the cost and downtime of the failure response. The update planning device according to claim 1 .

5. the preventive calculation unit converts the downtime period for the preventive maintenance into a monetary amount for each of the update plans, The failure calculation unit converts the downtime period for the failure response into a monetary amount for each of the update plans, The presentation unit presents, for each of the update plans, an amount obtained by converting the downtime period for the preventive maintenance and an amount obtained by converting the downtime period for the failure response. The update planning device according to claim 4 .

6. The update planning device further a naming unit that names each of the update plans according to a combination of the total amount of the preventive maintenance costs and the amount obtained by converting the downtime period, and the total amount of the failure response costs and the amount obtained by converting the downtime period. Equipped with The presentation unit presents the name given by the name giving unit for each of the update plans. The update planning device according to claim 5 .

7. The plan creation unit recreates the update plan for each of the combinations in cases where any of the plurality of parts is updated at a timing that is not scheduled for update in the adopted update plan, and in cases where any of the plurality of parts is not updated at a timing that is scheduled for update in the adopted update plan. The update planning device according to claim 1 .

8. the computer creates an update plan indicating the update timing for each of a plurality of parts constituting the equipment for each combination of a plurality of upper limit ratios and a plurality of lower limit ratios, and sets each of the plurality of parts as a target part to an update plan in which the update timing for the target part is set to a period that is equal to or less than an upper usage limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the upper limit ratio in the target combination and is equal to or greater than a lower usage limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the lower limit ratio in the target combination, An update planning method in which a computer presents the update plan for each combination.

9. a plan creation process that creates an update plan indicating the update timing for each of a plurality of parts that constitute equipment for each combination of a plurality of upper limit ratios and a plurality of lower limit ratios, wherein each of the plurality of parts is set as a target part, and an update plan is created in which the update timing for the target part is set to a period that is equal to or less than a usage upper limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the upper limit ratio in the target combination, and is equal to or greater than a usage lower limit obtained by multiplying the lifespan of the target part by the lower limit ratio in the target combination; a presentation process for presenting the update plan created by the plan creation process for each combination; An update planning program that causes a computer to function as an update planning device that performs the above.

Images