Ai buried pipeline renewal planning system, ai buried pipeline renewal planning method, and ai buried pipeline renewal planning program

Abstract

To provide a novel technology for planning renewal of existing pipelines within a renewal range.SOLUTION: An AI-based buried pipeline renewal planning system comprises an acquisition unit that obtains pipeline type information including pipeline renewal costs per pipeline type attribute, a renewal budget that is an annual budget for renewing existing pipelines within a renewal scope, and a renewal priority of pipelines, a pipeline type attribute determination unit that determines post-renewal pipeline type attributes for existing pipelines within the renewal scope, and a planning unit that formulates renewal plans for the existing pipelines within the renewal scope including renewal costs when the existing pipelines within the renewal scope are renewed to the post-renewal pipeline type attributes and renewal timing within the budget.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an AI buried pipeline renewal planning system, an AI buried pipeline renewal planning method, and an AI buried pipeline renewal planning program. [Background technology]

[0002] The renewal rate of buried pipelines is declining, and the rate of deterioration of pipelines is steadily increasing year by year. This means that the need to renew buried pipelines for water supply, sewerage, gas, etc. is expected to increase.

[0003] On the other hand, businesses that manage pipelines, such as water utilities, are facing problems such as a decline in personnel, an aging workforce, and worsening business conditions. Therefore, in order to respond to the increasing need for pipeline renewal, efficient renewal plans, rather than simple renewal, are required for future pipeline renewal.

[0004] Patent Document 1 discloses a technology for identifying pipelines that have a high risk of breakage and prioritizing their replacement. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Special Publication No. 2022-504497 [Non-patent literature]

[0006] [Non-Patent Document 1] "Recent Trends in Water Supply Administration," [online], February 2019, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Pharmaceutical Affairs and Food Sanitation Bureau, Water Supply Division, [Retrieved October 6, 2023], Internet<URL:https: / / www.mhlw.go.jp / content / 10900000 / 000486455.pdf>

[0007] Here, Patent Document 1 discloses a technology for identifying pipelines at risk of breakage and prioritizing replacement, but does not disclose a technology for planning the replacement of multiple pipelines within an update range, such as the range managed by the company itself, taking into account the pipe type attributes of the pipes to be replaced. Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0008] The present invention aims to provide a new technology for planning the renewal of existing pipelines within a renewal area. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] [1] An AI buried pipeline renewal planning system, an acquisition unit that acquires pipe type information including the cost for updating a pipeline for each pipe type attribute, an update budget that is an annual budget for updating existing pipelines within the update range, and an update priority of the pipeline; a pipe type attribute determination unit that determines post-update pipe type attributes for existing pipelines within the update range based on post-update deterioration prediction results for each pipe type attribute; a planning unit that formulates an update plan for existing pipelines within the update range, including the update cost when the existing pipelines within the update range are updated to the post-update pipe type attributes based on the pipe type information, the post-update pipe type attributes, the update budget, and the update priority, and the pipeline update timing when the update is performed within the budget; Equipped with AI buried pipeline renewal planning system. [2] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system also: a prediction unit that predicts deterioration of the existing pipeline based on the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline within the update range stored in a storage unit; a priority determination unit that determines the renewal priority of the existing pipeline within the renewal range based on the prediction result by the prediction unit; Equipped with the planning unit determines the update timing based on the update priority, the update cost, and the update budget determined by the priority determination unit. [1] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system described in [1]. [3] The prediction unit further performs deterioration prediction for each pipe type attribute after updating the existing pipeline within the update range based on the pipeline attribute information, and determines multiple prediction results after updating for each pipe type attribute; the pipe type attribute determination unit determines the post-update pipe type attribute based on the post-update prediction result; the acquisition unit acquires the updated pipe type attribute determined by the prediction unit. [2] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system described in [2]. [4] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further: It has a reception section that accepts the annual rate of price increase. The planning unit further formulates the renewal plan taking into account price increases based on the annual rate of increase. [1] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system described in [1]. [5] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further: a receiving unit that receives post-renewal pipe type conditions, which are conditions related to the cost and / or performance of the pipeline, for determining the post-renewal pipe type attributes; the pipe type attribute determination unit determines the updated pipe type attribute from the plurality of pipe type attributes based on the updated prediction result by the prediction unit and the updated pipe type condition. [3] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system described in [3]. [6] The post-renewal pipe type condition is the allowable range of performance degradation from the pipe with the least deterioration pipe type attribute. [5] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system described in [5]. [7] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further: A display processing unit is provided that displays an update cost display screen that shows the total update cost of the existing pipelines within the update range by year based on the update plan. [1] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system described in [1]. [8] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further: a reception unit that receives grouping conditions for existing pipelines, including conditions for the range of renewal order and / or the range of pipe extension of existing pipelines; The planning unit further groups a plurality of existing pipelines whose renewal order is within a range and / or whose pipe length is within a range based on the grouping conditions, and formulates the renewal plan. [2] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system described in [2]. [9] An AI buried pipeline renewal planning method executed by a computer device, the computing device includes at least one processing unit configured to execute computer-readable instructions stored in a memory unit; The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning method includes the steps of: an acquisition process for acquiring pipe type information including the cost for updating pipelines for each pipe type attribute, an update budget which is an annual budget for updating existing pipelines within the update range, and an update priority of the pipelines; a pipe type attribute determination step of determining post-update pipe type attributes for existing pipelines within the update range based on post-update deterioration prediction results for each pipe type attribute; a planning process for formulating an update plan for existing pipelines within the update range, including the update cost when updating existing pipelines within the update range to the post-update pipe type attributes, and the pipeline update timing when updating is performed within the budget, based on the pipe type information, the post-update pipe type attributes, the update budget, and the update priority; Including, AI buried pipeline renewal planning method.

[10] An AI buried pipeline renewal planning program, an acquisition unit that acquires pipe type information including the cost for updating a pipeline for each pipe type attribute, an update budget that is an annual budget for updating existing pipelines within the update range, and an update priority of the pipeline; a pipe type attribute determination unit that determines post-update pipe type attributes for existing pipelines within the update range based on post-update deterioration prediction results for each pipe type attribute; a planning unit that formulates an update plan for existing pipelines within the update range, including the update cost when the existing pipelines within the update range are updated to the post-update pipe type attributes based on the pipe type information, the post-update pipe type attributes, the update budget, and the update priority, and the pipeline update timing when the update is performed within the budget; as, make the computer function, AI buried pipeline renewal planning program.

[0010] The invention of [1] makes it possible to easily devise an update plan for existing pipelines within the scope of one’s management (update scope), including the update costs and timing, taking into account the update budget of each operator.

[0011] The invention according to [2] makes it possible to formulate an appropriate renewal plan based on the priority determined in consideration of the deterioration state of the pipeline.

[0012] [3] The invention of the present invention makes it possible to perform simulations of what would happen if the pipeline were updated for each pipe type attribute, determine the pipe type attribute that is suitable for installation at that location, and then develop an update plan for updating the pipeline to one with the appropriate pipe type attribute.

[0013] [4] The invention of the present invention makes it possible to formulate a renewal plan including a renewal budget and renewal timing, taking into account the annual rate of price increase.

[0014] [5] According to the invention of the present invention, even if it is not possible to replace the pipeline with a more expensive one, it is possible to prepare an update plan suitable for each user's conditions by using a pipeline with realistic pipe type attributes as the updated pipeline.

[0015] The invention of [6] makes it possible to set limits on performance degradation, thereby enabling the development of realistic replacement plans, such as replacing existing pipelines installed in locations where only the most expensive pipelines are likely to deteriorate and last for a long time, with more expensive pipelines.

[0016] The invention of [7] allows the total renewal costs to be displayed, making it possible to grasp the overall picture of renewal costs within the renewal range.

[0017] The invention according to [8] makes it possible to group pipelines that satisfy the grouping conditions and to develop renewal plans that allow for efficient construction work. [Effects of the Invention]

[0018] The present invention can provide a new technology for planning the renewal of existing pipelines within the renewal area. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0019] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a system according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 1 is a hardware configuration diagram of a system according to an embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a data structure diagram of a system according to an embodiment. [Figure 4] An example of an image of AI buried pipeline renewal planning in one embodiment of the system. [Figure 5] 10 shows an example of a screen display in the system according to an embodiment. [Figure 6] 10 shows an example of a screen display in the system according to an embodiment. [Figure 7] 10 shows an example of a screen display in the system according to an embodiment. [Figure 8] 10 is a flowchart of processing in a system according to an embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0020] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION The present invention will now be described more fully with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which preferred embodiments are shown, but which may be embodied in many different forms and are not limited to the embodiments set forth herein.

[0021] For example, in this embodiment, the configuration, operation, etc. of the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system will be described, but similar effects can be achieved by the executed method, device, computer program, etc. The program may be provided as a non-transitory computer-readable recording medium, or may be provided so as to be downloadable from an external server.

[0022] In this embodiment, a case where an update plan is made for a pipeline that supplies water such as a waterworks, etc. The pipeline for which the update plan is made is not limited to a water pipe, etc., but may be a buried pipeline such as a gas pipe, etc.

[0023] In addition, in this embodiment, an example will be described in which a business operator, such as a local government, that manages pipelines acts as a user and plans an update for existing pipelines installed within the area (update area) that the user manages. In this embodiment, the update plan is created with the entire area managed by the user, such as a water utility, as the update area to be updated. However, an update plan may be created with the update area being an area managed by multiple businesses, or an area managed by a specific business. In addition, in this specification, an existing pipeline refers to a pipeline that is actually installed. In this embodiment, a case will be described in which a plan is created to update a pipeline by replacing an existing pipeline that is currently installed with a new pipeline.

[0024] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system of the present invention determines the post-renewal pipe type attributes (post-renewal pipe type attributes) for each existing pipeline within the renewal range, and then develops a renewal plan that takes into account other existing pipelines within the renewal range when the post-renewal pipe type attributes are updated.

[0025] <System configuration> 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a system according to one embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 includes an AI buried pipeline renewal planning device 1.

[0026] The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 shown in Figure 1 is an information processing device such as a computer used by a company that manages pipelines. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 is configured to be able to realize the functional configuration described below.

[0027] In this embodiment, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 includes a pipeline DB, which is a database that stores information about pipelines, such as pipeline attribute information. In this embodiment, the pipeline DB stores pipeline-related data, such as pipeline attribute information, acquired via a portable recording medium, such as a USB memory or CD-ROM, in consideration of the risk of data leakage. However, the pipeline DB may store data acquired via any network from an external information distribution system or external DB. The pipeline DB is realized by the operation of the hardware configuration of the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1, such as the storage unit 102, which will be described later. Various pieces of pipeline-related information, such as pipeline attribute information and event information, stored in the pipeline DB are used in the process of creating the renewal plan, which will be described later.

[0028] In this embodiment, the pipeline DB is provided in the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1, but it may also be provided in another server device or the like configured to be able to communicate via any network, such as a VPN (Virtual Private Network) on the network, and the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 may be configured to obtain the necessary information from the pipeline DB connected via the network.

[0029] <Hardware configuration> Figure 2 is a hardware configuration diagram. As shown in Figure 2, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 includes a processing unit 101, a memory unit 102, a communication unit 103, an input unit 104, and an output unit 105, which are used to perform the functions of each unit and each process. One or more information processing devices such as computers can be used as the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1. Furthermore, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 has the functional configuration described below, but some of the functional configuration of the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 may be located in a separate device connected to the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1.

[0030] The processing unit 101 has a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that can execute an instruction set, and executes an OS (Operating System) and an AI buried pipeline renewal planning program including a pipeline deterioration prediction program.

[0031] The storage unit 102 includes a volatile memory such as a random access memory (RAM) capable of storing an instruction set, and a non-volatile storage medium such as a hard disk drive (HDD) or solid state drive (SSD) capable of recording an OS and other information. The storage unit 102 of the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 stores an AI buried pipeline renewal planning program, including a pipeline deterioration prediction program, as well as trained mathematical models or trained mathematical model parameters for pipeline deterioration prediction. The storage unit 102 of the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 may also store a learning program for training the mathematical model. In this embodiment, data stored in the pipeline DB, such as pipeline attribute information, is stored in the storage unit 102 of the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1.

[0032] The communication unit 103 has an interface for connecting to a network, controls communication with the network, and communicates with other information processing devices, terminal devices, etc. When data is exchanged via a portable storage medium such as a USB memory, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 does not need to be equipped with the communication unit 103.

[0033] The input unit 104 has an operation input device capable of input processing such as a touch panel or a keyboard, an audio input device capable of audio input such as a microphone, etc. The output unit 105 has a display device capable of display processing such as a display, and an audio output device such as a speaker.

[0034] <Data definition> Below, we will explain the definitions of the data used in the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0.

[0035] In this specification, pipeline data recorded in a database managed by a pipeline operator is referred to as raw pipeline data. This raw data may be converted, such as by replacing, adding, or deleting information, as necessary to make it usable within the system. The converted data is referred to as processed pipeline data. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 1 processes this raw pipeline data and uses the processed data to perform various processes, such as predicting pipeline deterioration, determining post-renewal pipe type attributes, and formulating renewal plans. If no processing is required, the raw data may be used as processed data. In this embodiment, the mathematical model for predicting pipeline deterioration is a trained model that has been trained using training data obtained by performing various conversion processes on pipeline attribute information and event information. As part of preprocessing of the raw data, processing may be performed to supplement missing pipeline attribute information, such as the year the pipeline was installed.

[0036] <Data structure> An example of the data configuration used in the process related to the formulation of an update plan stored in the storage unit 102 will be shown below with reference to Fig. 3. The data configuration shown in this embodiment is just one example, and data having a configuration other than that shown in Fig. 3 may be used in the process related to the formulation of a pipeline update plan, which will be described later.

[0037] 3(a) shows an example of the data configuration of pipeline attribute information stored in the storage unit 102. The pipeline attribute information is information about pipeline attributes, which are attributes of pipelines, and is information about existing pipelines managed by pipeline managers such as local governments.

[0038] The pipeline attribute information shown in FIG. 3(a) is information about the attributes of a pipeline (pipe attributes). In this embodiment, it is raw data stored in the pipeline DB, but it may also be processed data. The pipeline attribute information shown in FIG. 3(a) includes the installation year, which indicates the year the pipeline was installed, the pipe type, the pipeline diameter, and whether or not an event investigation, such as a leak investigation, has been conducted. Although not shown in FIG. 3(a), the pipeline attribute information also includes data about the length of the pipeline. In this embodiment, the pipeline attribute information is information about each existing pipeline and is stored in association with a pipeline ID, which is a unique ID for the pipeline. In addition to the information shown in FIG. 3(a), the pipeline attribute information also includes hydraulic calculation feature quantities, which are feature quantities related to hydraulic calculations; environmental information about the environment at the pipeline installation location; abnormality information about abnormal deterioration of the pipeline; and adjacent pipeline information about adjacent pipelines, including the pipe type of the adjacent pipeline. In this embodiment, by including adjacent pipeline information as pipeline attribute information, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 is able to predict the occurrence of electrolytic corrosion leakage that may occur due to the material of adjacent pipelines.

[0039] The pipeline attribute information also includes pipe type attribute information related to pipe type attributes, which are attributes of the pipeline itself. Pipe type attributes are attributes related to the type of pipeline and are attributes of the pipeline itself, regardless of the location where the pipeline is installed. In this embodiment, the pipe type attribute information includes pipe type, which is information about the material of the pipeline, such as ductile cast iron pipe (DIP) or cast iron pipe (CIP), the diameter of the pipeline, and the joints of the pipeline. Joints are components used to connect pipelines. Even for the same ductile cast iron pipe, different joint materials can result in non-earthquake-resistant or earthquake-resistant pipes. Therefore, in this embodiment, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 determines a combination of pipe type and joints as the post-renewal pipe type attribute. Furthermore, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 may determine one or more appropriate attributes, such as pipe type and diameter, or only pipe type, as the post-renewal pipe type attribute.

[0040] The abnormality information is information relating to the year in which a pipeline showing abnormal deterioration was laid, and in this embodiment, it is an abnormal year flag that is assigned to a pipeline laid in a year showing abnormal deterioration in cases where the pipeline laid in that year has deteriorated severely due to an error in the laying work, etc.

[0041] The environmental information is information about the environment at the location where the pipeline is installed, and includes information such as the average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, average precipitation, traffic volume, building density, distance from a major road, and traffic volume on the nearest major road at the installation location. Furthermore, other information, such as the location of the pipeline, may also be included as the pipeline attribute information, as long as it is a feature related to pipeline deterioration. In this embodiment, the environmental information includes ground information about the ground as information about the environment at the location where the pipeline is installed. The ground information is information about the ground at the location where the pipeline is installed, and includes the average S-wave velocity (AVS), the surface ground amplification factor, the type of topography, and geology.

[0042] Hydraulic calculation features are features related to hydraulic calculations obtained by performing hydraulic calculations based on any of the features included in the pipeline attribute information, and include the flow rate and pressure of water flow in the pipeline, water supply population, flow rate, flow velocity, etc.

[0043] Fig. 3(b) shows an example of the data configuration of event information stored in the storage unit 102. The event information is information about an event, which is an abnormal phenomenon that has occurred in a pipeline, such as a leak or break, and in the example shown in Fig. 3(b), includes the type of event and the year in which the event occurred.

[0044] The event information in this embodiment includes information on the occurrence of an event in a pipeline for which an event investigation has been conducted by a company that manages the pipeline, such as a water utility company, and information on an event in a pipeline in which a sudden water leakage accident has occurred. The event investigation is an investigation conducted by a company that manages the pipeline to determine whether an event such as a water leakage has occurred in the pipeline, and in this embodiment, it is a water leakage investigation of the pipeline.

[0045] In this embodiment, event information is stored in association with the pipeline attribute information of one of the pipelines using the pipeline ID, but event information relating to an event that occurs suddenly in a pipeline, such as a water leakage accident, does not need to be associated with the pipeline attribute information.

[0046] The event information shown in Figure 3(b) includes a water leak data ID, which is a unique ID for identifying the event, the pipeline ID of the pipeline where the event occurred, the cause of the water leak, and the event occurrence year (year of the water leak) as timing information. The timing information is information about the timing of the event occurring in the pipeline. The data shown in Figure 3(b) includes data about the year in which the event occurred as timing information, but the survival time of the pipeline until the event occurred, obtained from the year in which the pipeline was installed and the year in which the event occurred, may also be included as timing information.

[0047] In this embodiment, the event type included in the event information is information indicating the cause of damage to the pipeline and whether or not an event has occurred, and for example, information regarding the cause of water leakage, such as corrosion deterioration of the water pipe, electrolytic corrosion leakage, and vibration leakage, is stored. Also, in this embodiment, for pipelines where no water leakage has occurred, event information is stored in which the event type is "no water leakage," indicating that no event has occurred. In this embodiment, the event information is information regarding water leakage from water pipes, but it may also be information regarding other events occurring in pipelines, such as bursting, breakage, or leakage in gas pipes or other pipelines.

[0048] The data shown in Figure 3 is data about existing installed pipelines and is an example of data used to train a mathematical model that predicts pipeline deterioration. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 uses multiple sets of provisional pipeline attribute information, which have a data structure similar to the pipeline attribute information shown in Figure 3(a) but with different pipe type attributes, to predict pipeline deterioration and determine the post-renewal pipe type attributes. In this embodiment, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 uses the pipeline attribute information of currently installed existing pipelines to predict deterioration when a new pipeline is installed with the same or different pipe type attributes as the existing pipeline after renewal. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 compares the multiple post-renewal prediction results for the existing pipelines to compare the degree of deterioration for each pipe type attribute and determine the post-renewal pipe type attributes.

[0049] Furthermore, the storage unit 102 may store information about events such as water leakage caused by earthquakes as event information in order to perform deterioration prediction corresponding to earthquake damage. In this case, the event information includes earthquake impact information indicating whether the event that occurred was caused by the earthquake. The mathematical model corresponding to earthquake damage is a model that has been trained using event information related to events that occurred due to the impact of the earthquake based on the earthquake impact information. The storage unit 102 also stores a history of earthquakes that have occurred in the past within the scope managed by a specific business operator such as a local government, which is used to train the mathematical model.

[0050] Figure 3(c) shows an example of the data structure of training data, which is processed data formatted for learning and generated by combining pipeline attribute information and event information. The training data is information about pipelines used to train mathematical models, and includes a leak data ID, installation year, pipeline ID, survival time, which is the time from pipeline installation to the occurrence of an event or the time from the previous event to the occurrence of the next event, a training label, which is a label related to the event type, the number of past leaks at that time in the pipeline where the event occurred, and an abnormal year flag, which indicates an abnormal year with an abnormally high number of events. The training label is data related to the event type and is a label assigned to each event type.

[0051] Although not shown in FIG. 3 , the storage unit 102 also stores pipe type information related to pipe type attributes. The pipe type information is information about the types of pipelines that can be used as pipe type attributes after updating in the system, and in this embodiment, it is a list of pipelines that can be selected as pipelines after updating. The pipe type information includes pipe types such as DIP (ductile cast iron pipe) and joints, and the cost of updating per unit length (for example, the cost of updating per 1 meter is 100,000 yen). In this embodiment, the pipe type information is a list of candidates that can be selected for each pipe type attribute, such as pipe type and joint, but it may also be the product name of the pipeline, etc. The cost of updating per unit length may be the price (purchase cost) of the pipeline or joint itself, or may include the construction cost for updating the pipeline, etc. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 determines the same pipe type attribute as one of the candidates from the list of selectable pipe type attributes stored as pipe type information as the post-update pipe type attribute (post-update pipe type attribute), and creates a renewal plan for updating an existing pipeline to a pipeline with that pipe type attribute.

[0052] <Functional configuration> As shown in Figure 1, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 includes a reception unit 11, an acquisition unit 12, a prediction unit 13, a pipe type attribute determination unit 14, a priority determination unit 15, a planning unit 16, and a display processing unit 17. This is information processing performed by software (a program stored transiently or non-transiently in the storage unit 102, etc.) specifically realized by hardware (processing unit 101, etc.).

[0053] <Reception Section 11> The reception unit 11 receives various settings related to the renewal plan input by the user, such as the renewal budget, the annual rate of price increase, post-renewal pipe type conditions which are conditions for determining post-renewal pipe type attributes, and pipeline grouping conditions. The reception unit 11 performs processing to store the received information in the storage unit 102. The reception unit 11 may also receive information related to pipelines, such as information related to events discovered by businesses such as local governments that have conducted event surveys, and store the information in the pipeline DB.

[0054] <Acquisition part 12> The acquisition unit 12 acquires the prediction results from the prediction unit 13 and the post-update pipe type attributes determined by the pipe type attribute determination unit 14, and performs processing to acquire and transfer data necessary for processing to formulate an update plan, such as transferring the data to the planning unit 16. When data necessary for processing related to formulation of an update plan is stored in the storage unit 102, the acquisition unit 12 acquires the data from the storage unit 102 and performs processing to transfer the data.

[0055] <Prediction Section 13> The prediction unit 13 uses a mathematical model to predict deterioration of the pipeline based on the pipeline attribute information and determines the prediction result. The prediction unit 13 predicts deterioration of the existing pipeline that is actually laid based on the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline, and determines the deterioration prediction result of the existing pipeline that is currently laid. In this embodiment, the prediction unit 13 predicts deterioration of all existing pipelines within the update range and determines the prediction result, and stores the prediction result in the memory unit 102 in association with the pipeline attribute information of each existing pipeline.

[0056] The prediction unit 13 further predicts deterioration after updating when a currently installed existing pipeline is updated and a new pipeline is installed, based on the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline and the pipe type information stored in the memory unit 102, and determines multiple prediction results. In this embodiment, the prediction unit 13 predicts deterioration after updating when pipelines with different pipe type attributes are installed, such as determining prediction results when a GX pipe and a VP pipe are installed for one existing pipeline, and determines multiple prediction results. In this embodiment, the prediction unit 13 determines prediction results for each pipeline with available pipe type attributes, such as a combination of pipe type and joint, based on the pipe type information stored in the memory unit 102.

[0057] The mathematical model used by the prediction unit 13 for pipeline deterioration prediction is a trained model that has been trained using training data generated by combining pipeline attribute information and event information, as shown in FIG. 3(c). In this embodiment, when pipeline attribute information is input, the model outputs the pipeline's survival time, which is the time until pipeline failure, and the pipeline failure probability as prediction results. The mathematical model in this embodiment is a model that has been trained based on training data generated using pipeline attribute information and event information for a large number of pipelines with various pipe type attributes, such as combinations of different pipe types and joints, and is capable of predicting deterioration of pipelines with various pipe type attributes. Furthermore, in this embodiment, the mathematical model includes multiple models trained corresponding to each event type based on training labels assigned based on the event types included in the training data. In this embodiment, the mathematical model includes models corresponding to each event type, such as corrosion deterioration, electrolytic corrosion leakage, vibration leakage, and other leakage.

[0058] The mathematical model used in the prediction unit 13 is a mathematical model constructed using a different method for each event type. In this embodiment, when the event type is electrolytic corrosion leakage, vibration leakage, or other leakage, the mathematical model used to predict pipeline deterioration is a model constructed using the gradient boosting method, but it may also be constructed using methods such as gradient descent, boosting, decision trees, neural networks, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbor methods. Furthermore, when the event type is corrosion deterioration, the mathematical model is a model constructed using a survival analysis method such as the Kaplan-Meier method or the Cox proportional hazards model to perform survival analysis.

[0059] In this embodiment, the prediction unit 13 performs deterioration prediction using a model corresponding to each event type and determines the probability of an event occurring for each event type within a predetermined period, such as the probability of an event occurring within one year and the probability of an event occurring within three years, as prediction results. Furthermore, the prediction unit 13 determines the degree of deterioration of the pipeline and the remaining lifespan of the pipeline as prediction results. In this embodiment, the prediction unit 13 determines the remaining lifespan of the pipeline as the survival time calculated by performing survival analysis. However, the prediction unit 13 may also determine the remaining lifespan of the pipeline as 10 years if the occurrence rate of events within a predetermined period is equal to or greater than a threshold value using a mathematical model based on a method other than survival analysis. For example, the prediction unit 13 may determine the remaining lifespan as 10 years if the occurrence rate of events within a predetermined period is equal to or greater than a threshold value. Furthermore, when determining prediction results using multiple models corresponding to each event type, the prediction unit 13 may determine a single final prediction result, such as the highest deterioration probability or the shortest remaining lifespan, from the multiple prediction results calculated using the multiple models corresponding to each event type.

[0060] Furthermore, the prediction unit 13 uses a mathematical model corresponding to earthquakes to predict pipeline deterioration based on pipeline attribute information including ground information, and determines a predicted result of damage due to the effects of an earthquake. In this embodiment, the prediction unit 13 determines the pipeline leakage probability (event occurrence rate) for a specific earthquake index (in this embodiment, seismic intensity) as a prediction result. In this embodiment, seismic intensity, which is relatively easy to obtain, is used as the earthquake index. However, one or more of seismic intensity, magnitude, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, SI value (Spectrum Intensity), etc. may also be used as the earthquake index. Furthermore, the earthquake index may be an earthquake index such as seismic intensity obtained from a database such as a public database.

[0061] <Pipe type attribute determination section 14> The pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines the post-update pipe type attribute based on the post-update prediction result in the prediction unit 13. The pipe type attribute determination unit 14 compares the prediction results of post-update deterioration for each pipe type attribute based on the post-update prediction results for each pipe type attribute determined in the prediction unit 13, such as the prediction result when a currently installed pipeline is updated to DIP (ductile iron pipe) and the prediction result when it is updated to PE (polyethylene pipe), and determines the post-update pipe type attribute. In this embodiment, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines, as the post-update pipe type attribute, a pipe type attribute that satisfies a condition based on the post-update pipe type attribute, which is a condition for determining the post-update pipe type attribute. However, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 may also determine, as the post-update pipe type attribute, a pipe type attribute with the longest remaining life or a pipe type attribute with the lowest deterioration probability.

[0062] In this embodiment, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines the post-renewal pipe type attribute of the existing pipeline based on the post-renewal pipe type conditions received by the receiving unit 11 and multiple post-renewal prediction results by the prediction unit 13. The post-renewal pipe type conditions are conditions for determining the post-renewal pipe type attributes of the existing pipeline, and include an acceptable range for cost and / or pipeline performance. The longest-lasting, high-performance pipelines are often the most expensive. Therefore, water utilities facing financial difficulties due to population decline and other factors may find it difficult to replace all of their pipelines with more expensive ones. In this embodiment, by using conditions related to cost and / or pipeline performance as the post-renewal pipe type conditions to develop an upgrade plan, it becomes possible to develop a realistic plan for each utility within the scope of feasibility. The pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines, for example, a pipeline with an acceptable upgrade cost or an acceptable performance as the post-renewal pipe type attribute based on the post-renewal pipe type conditions.

[0063] In this embodiment, the post-renewal pipe type condition is the allowable range of performance degradation from the pipeline with the least deteriorated pipe type attribute. When a value of 80% is set as the post-renewal pipe type condition, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 receives prediction results for each post-renewal pipe type attribute by the prediction unit 13, such as a remaining lifespan of 100 years for pipe type attribute A, a remaining lifespan of 80 years for pipe type attribute B, and a remaining lifespan of 60 years for pipe type attribute C. The pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines pipe type attribute B, which has a remaining lifespan of 80% (80 years) of pipe type attribute A, which has the longest remaining lifespan. In this way, by setting the post-renewal pipe type condition to the range of performance degradation from the pipeline with the least degree of deterioration, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 in this embodiment can develop a renewal plan tailored to the situation, such as selecting the highest-performance pipeline if only the highest-performance pipeline will last for more than 80 years. Furthermore, when a post-update pipe type attribute condition such as 80% is set, the planning unit 16 may set the pipe type attribute of the pipeline closest to 80% of the longest-lasting pipeline (pipe with pipe type attribute A) as the post-update pipe type attribute, or may set the pipe type attribute of the cheapest pipeline among the pipelines having a remaining life of 80% or more of the longest-lasting pipeline as the post-update pipe type attribute.

[0064] The example described here is an example in which a post-renewal pipe type attribute is determined using the remaining life as a prediction result. However, a score may be assigned to each pipe type attribute using multiple prediction results (such as the probability of deterioration over time, the remaining life, and the probability of leakage) determined using multiple mathematical models for each leak cause, and the post-renewal pipe type attribute may be determined based on the assigned score. In this case, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 assigns a score to each pipe type attribute based on the prediction result by the prediction unit 13, and determines the post-renewal pipe type attribute to be the pipe type attribute with the highest score or a pipe type attribute whose score declines from the highest-scoring pipe type attribute within a range set by the post-renewal pipe type condition (e.g., when 80% is set as the threshold, the score is 80% or more of the highest-scoring pipeline). The pipe type attribute determination unit 14 may weight the multiple deterioration prediction results based on pre-set conditions, for example, by weighting them with the prediction results of a mathematical model for predicting earthquake damage when earthquake resistance is set as an important factor, and determine the score.

[0065] In this embodiment, the post-upgrade pipe type condition is the allowable range of performance degradation from a pipeline with the least deteriorated pipe type attribute, but the performance may also be the percentage increase or decrease in performance from the currently installed existing pipeline. In this case, when 120% is set as the post-upgrade pipe type condition, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines, as the post-upgrade pipe type attribute, the pipe type attribute of a pipeline that has a remaining lifespan 1.2 times longer than when the existing pipeline is updated to a pipeline with the same pipe type attribute.

[0066] In this embodiment, the post-renewal pipe type condition is a condition related to cost and / or pipeline performance, but may also be, for example, a priority when formulating a renewal plan. For example, when earthquake resistance is set as a priority as a post-renewal pipe type condition, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 may weight earthquake prediction results, such as the probability of leakage for a specific earthquake index, and determine the post-renewal pipe type attribute using multiple prediction results predicted using multiple mathematical models. Furthermore, when earthquake resistance is prioritized, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 may use earthquake-resistant pipelines (e.g., GX-type ductile cast iron pipes or polyethylene pipes) as candidates for the post-renewal pipe type attribute, and when cost reduction is prioritized, may use inexpensive pipelines (e.g., polyvinyl chloride pipes) as candidates for the post-renewal pipe type attribute to determine the post-renewal pipe type attribute.

[0067] <Priority determination section 15> When the prediction unit 13 predicts deterioration of existing pipelines within the renewal range, the priority determination unit 15 determines renewal priorities for the existing pipelines within the renewal range based on the prediction results (deterioration probability, remaining life, water leakage probability, etc.) of the existing pipelines within the renewal range by the prediction unit 13. In this embodiment, the priority determination unit 15 determines pipelines with a high deterioration probability or a short remaining life obtained as a prediction result as pipelines with a high renewal priority, but the priority may be determined taking other conditions into consideration, such as prioritizing the renewal of specific pipe types such as lead pipes that may cause health hazards or VP pipes that are particularly at risk of water leakage.

[0068] <Planning Department 16> The planning unit 16 formulates an update plan for updating existing pipelines within an update range, such as an area managed by a specific utility, to post-update pipe type attributes based on the post-update pipe type attributes and update budget, and the pipeline update priority and pipe type information acquired by the acquisition unit 12. The update plan is a plan for updating pipelines, and in this embodiment, includes the pipeline update timing and the update cost for updating to the post-update pipe type attributes. Furthermore, in this embodiment, the planning unit 16 associates the formulated update plan, including the pipeline update timing and update cost, with the pipeline attribute information of each existing pipeline using identification information such as a pipeline ID, and stores the plan in the storage unit 102.

[0069] In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 calculates the renewal cost, which is the cost of renewing each existing pipeline to the new pipe type attribute, based on the new pipe type attribute and the pipe type information. In this embodiment, the storage unit 102 stores the renewal cost per unit length as pipe type information including the renewal cost for each pipe type attribute. Therefore, the planning unit 16 further calculates the renewal cost of the existing pipeline included in the renewal plan using the pipe length included in the pipe attribute information. For example, if the new pipe type attribute is DIP (ductile cast iron pipe), the renewal cost per meter of DIP as the pipe type information is 500,000 yen, and the pipe length included in the pipe attribute information is 10 meters, the planning unit 16 determines the renewal cost of that pipeline to be 5 million yen. In this case, the planning unit 16 calculates a standard renewal cost (standard renewal cost) that does not take into account the annual rate of price increase. In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 performs processing related to calculation of the renewal costs for all existing pipelines within the renewal range, links the calculated renewal costs to the pipeline attribute information of each existing pipeline using identification information such as the pipeline ID, and stores the linked costs in the storage unit 102. Also, in this embodiment, the planning unit 16 calculates the renewal costs by adding the costs of pipe joints to the cost based on the pipe length, in order to determine the costs based on the combination of joints and pipe types included in the pipe type attributes.

[0070] The planning unit 16 determines the timing of updating the existing pipelines based on the calculated update cost for each existing pipeline, the update priority determined by the priority determination unit 15, and the update budget relating to the annual budget for updating the existing pipelines set in advance by the user. In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 determines the year in which to update the existing pipelines as the update timing included in the update plan.

[0071] Below, we will use Figure 4(a) to show an image of the process of formulating a renewal plan for existing pipelines. The example shown in Figure 4(a) below is a process for determining the renewal timing using a standard renewal cost that does not take into account the annual rate of price increase.

[0072] When a renewal budget of 10 million yen is set, and pipeline A, which has a renewal priority of 1 and a renewal cost (standard renewal cost) of 6 million yen, pipeline B, which has a renewal priority of 2 and a renewal cost (standard renewal cost) of 4 million yen, and pipeline C, which has a renewal priority of 3 and a renewal cost (standard renewal cost) of 5 million yen, are within the renewal range, the planning unit 16 determines the renewal timing for pipelines A and B as pipelines to be renewed in the current fiscal year (2024), and pipeline C, whose renewal cost exceeds the renewal budget of 10 million yen, as pipeline to be renewed in the next fiscal year (2025). In this way, the planning unit 16 determines the renewal timing for existing pipelines whose renewal costs exceed the renewal budget in the next fiscal year, starting with the existing pipelines with the highest renewal priority. In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 determines the renewal timing for pipelines with the highest renewal priority so as not to exceed the renewal budget. However, the renewal timing for existing pipelines may be set so that the cost exceeds the renewal budget if it is within a predetermined range. Furthermore, the planning unit 16 may determine the renewal year by shifting the renewal priority so that the total renewal cost of the existing pipelines each year approaches the renewal budget.

[0073] Furthermore, the planning unit 16 groups multiple adjacent existing pipelines into a single pipeline based on the grouping conditions, and then performs processing related to the formulation of an upgrade plan. The grouping conditions are conditions for treating multiple adjacent existing pipelines as a single pipeline when formulating an upgrade plan, and in this embodiment, include conditions related to the range of upgrade order and / or the range of pipe length for the existing pipelines. When upgrading an existing pipeline, it is necessary to excavate the buried pipeline for the upgrade. Therefore, by grouping multiple adjacent existing pipelines that are due for upgrade similarly, as in this embodiment, the AI ​​buried pipeline upgrade plan formulation system 0 enables the formulation of an efficient upgrade plan that does not require the multiple excavation of nearby existing pipelines over the course of several years.

[0074] The renewal order of existing pipelines is the renewal order, which in this embodiment is either the renewal timing, remaining lifespan, or renewal priority. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system 0 groups adjacent existing pipelines that are close in time or order of renewal based on the grouping conditions and the renewal order of existing pipelines, and develops an efficient renewal plan that performs construction work at the same time. In this embodiment, the remaining lifespan of the existing pipelines is determined as a prediction result by the prediction unit 13, but it may also be the renewal timing of the existing pipelines determined by the planning unit 16. Furthermore, in this embodiment, the condition related to the renewal order included in the grouping conditions is determined as a time-related condition, such as within five years, but it may also be a condition related to a range of renewal priority, such as a renewal priority of 50 or less.

[0075] When the renewal dates determined by the planning unit 16 are used as the renewal priority, the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 uses the determined renewal dates of existing pipelines to group them based on grouping conditions, and then treats the grouped existing pipelines as a single pipeline and performs processes related to the creation of an existing pipeline renewal plan, including calculating renewal costs, determining renewal priorities, and determining renewal times. In this case, the planning unit 16 may determine the renewal time for the existing pipeline with the earliest renewal date as the renewal time for the entire group. Alternatively, the planning unit 16 may regroup the existing pipelines and calculate the renewal costs, and determine the renewal time for the group based on the renewal priority, renewal budget, and renewal costs, using the renewal priority of the existing pipeline with the highest renewal priority as the renewal priority for the group. When the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 uses the determined renewal dates of existing pipelines as the renewal priority, the grouping and renewal plan creation processes may be repeated until no existing pipelines remain that can be grouped.

[0076] 4(b), an example of processing related to grouping when grouping conditions are set such that the renewal order is within 5 years and the pipe length is within 7 m will be described. When a 30 m pipeline A whose renewal order is within 2 years, a 5 m pipeline B whose renewal order is within 15 years, and a 50 m pipeline C whose renewal order is within 5 years are adjacent to each other in the order of pipeline A, pipeline B, and pipeline C, the planning unit 16 first groups pipeline B whose pipe length is 7 m or less with pipeline C whose renewal order is close to that of the neighboring pipelines on either side, to create a group (pipeline C') of pipeline B and pipeline C. The planning unit 16 further performs grouping processing for pipeline C', and since pipeline A adjacent to pipeline C' is 7m or longer in length but the difference between pipeline B and pipeline C, which has the earliest renewal priority in the group of pipelines B and C, is 3 years, pipeline A is added to the group of pipelines B and C and they are grouped together (pipeline C'').In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 refers to the renewal priority of the pipeline in the group that has the highest renewal priority and is closest to the time to be renewed (near the renewal time or has a short remaining life) and determines whether the conditions for renewal priority are met.

[0077] In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 confirms whether the pipe lengths of adjacent pipelines are within the ranges set as grouping conditions and whether the update order is within the ranges set as grouping conditions, and groups existing pipelines whose pipe lengths or update orders are within the ranges set as grouping conditions by adding them to the group. In addition, the planning unit 16 further performs grouping processing on groups of multiple existing pipelines that have been grouped and treated as a single pipeline, and groups the existing pipelines by adding them to the group if the pipeline adjacent to any of the pipelines included in the group satisfies the grouping conditions.

[0078] In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 formulates a renewal plan that takes price increases into consideration based on the annual rate of price increase. In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 calculates renewal costs (planned renewal costs) corresponding to the prices in the renewal year based on the annual rate of price increase, and formulates a renewal plan by determining the renewal timing so that this planned renewal cost does not exceed the annual budget (renewal budget).

[0079] An example will be explained using a 1.2% annual inflation rate. Figure 4(a) shows an example of a replacement plan created without taking the annual inflation rate into account. However, when creating a replacement plan taking the annual inflation rate into account starting from 2024, the planned replacement costs for fiscal year 2024 are 6 million yen for Pipeline A and 4 million yen for Pipeline B, since this is the base year. The total planned replacement costs for Pipelines A and B is 10 million yen, which does not exceed the replacement budget, so the replacement period for Pipelines A and B will be fiscal year 2024. The planned replacement costs for fiscal year 2025 will be 5.06 million yen for Pipeline C and 4.048 million yen for Pipeline D, which is a 1.2% increase from the base year not taking into account the annual inflation rate. The total planned replacement costs for Pipelines C and D is 9.108 million yen, which does not exceed the replacement budget, so the replacement period for Pipelines C and D will be fiscal year 2025. The planned renewal costs for fiscal year 2026 are 2,048,000 yen for pipeline E, 3,072,000 yen for pipeline F, and 5,120,000 yen for pipeline G. The total planned renewal costs for pipelines E, F, and G will be 10,240,000 yen, which exceeds the renewal budget, so the renewal period for pipelines E and F will be set at fiscal year 2026, and the renewal period for pipeline G, which has the lowest renewal priority, will be set at the following fiscal year (2027), and the renewal year will be determined.

[0080] The display processing unit 17 displays various screens including a setting screen for receiving various conditions for formulating an update plan including post-update pipe type conditions, an update budget, and grouping conditions. The display processing unit 17 also displays an update cost display screen that shows the total update costs for existing pipelines within the update range for each fiscal year based on the update plan formulated by the planning unit 16, and a pipeline information display screen that displays information for each existing pipeline based on pipeline attribute information.

[0081] Examples of screen displays that are processed by the display processing unit 17 will be described below with reference to FIGS.

[0082] <Settings screen W1> An example of the screen display of the setting screen W1 will be described using Fig. 5. The setting screen W1 is a screen for accepting input of settings for formulating an update plan, and includes a graph setting acceptance section W11 for accepting settings (graph settings) for generating a graph on the update cost display screen W2 as shown in Fig. 6, an update plan setting acceptance section W12 for accepting conditions for formulating an update plan, and an execute button W13.

[0083] The graph setting reception unit W11 is a screen display for receiving settings for generating a graph on the update cost display screen W2, and includes an input unit for receiving the number of planned years to be displayed on the graph, the start year of the plan, and the budget amount to be displayed as the base on the graph. In this embodiment, the annual budget and the budget amount for the start year of the plan are received as the budget amount to be displayed as the base on the graph, but input of only the annual budget amount may be received. The reception unit 11 receives settings (graph settings) for generating a graph including the number of planned years, the start year of the plan, and the budget amount to be displayed as the base on the graph, which are received in the graph setting reception unit W11. When the display processing unit 17 displays a graph using settings related to the formulation of an update plan input in the update plan setting reception unit W12, the setting screen W1 does not need to include the graph setting reception unit W11. When the display button included in the graph setting reception unit W11 is pressed, the display processing unit 17 displays the renewal cost display screen W2 as shown in Figure 6 based on the received graph setting, pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline, and the renewal plan including the renewal cost and renewal time drawn up by the planning unit 16.

[0084] The renewal plan setting reception unit W12 is a screen display for receiving various settings required for formulating a renewal plan, including the renewal budget, post-renewal pipe type conditions, annual price increase rate, and grouping conditions. In this embodiment, because there is a possibility that a larger budget will be set only for the first year in which renewal begins, the renewal budget receives the annual budget and the budget amount for the start year of the plan. However, if the same budget amount is expected every year, input of only the annual budget amount may be received as the renewal cost. The renewal plan setting reception unit W12 also receives input of the degree of performance deterioration of the pipeline (80% in the example shown in FIG. 5) as the post-renewal pipe type condition. The renewal plan setting reception unit W12 shown in FIG. 5 also receives input of the average annual price increase rate (average annual rate) as the annual price increase rate, but may also receive the annual price increase rate for each year. The renewal plan setting reception unit W12 shown in FIG. 5 also receives input of the renewal order and pipe length as grouping conditions. The reception unit 11 receives various settings for formulating a renewal plan, including the renewal budget, post-renewal pipe type conditions, annual price increase rate, and grouping conditions, which are input in the renewal plan setting reception unit W12, and passes them on to the pipe type attribute determination unit 14, planning unit 16, etc., so that the AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning device 1 executes processing related to formulating a renewal plan.

[0085] <Update cost display screen W2> An example of the screen display of the renewal cost display screen W2 will be described using FIG. 6. The renewal cost display screen W2 is a screen that displays the total renewal costs of existing pipelines within the renewal range for each fiscal year, and is displayed by the display processing unit 17 based on the renewal plan drawn up by the planning unit 16 and the graph settings received by the reception unit 11. In this embodiment, the display processing unit 17 displays the renewal cost display screen W2 based on the renewal plan drawn up by the planning unit 16 and linked to the pipeline attribute information of each existing pipeline. In the example shown in FIG. 6, the renewal cost display screen W2 displays the total renewal costs of existing pipelines from the start year, 2024, to the end of the planned period (five years later). Furthermore, the display processing unit 17 displays a graph showing a reference budget amount (in this embodiment, the same amount as the renewal budget) based on the graph settings input via the setting screen W1 as shown in FIG. 5. Furthermore, in the example shown in FIG. 5, the graph displayed on the renewal cost display screen W2 further displays the total removal costs of existing pipelines to be renewed each fiscal year. In this embodiment, the display processing unit 17 displays and processes the renewal cost display screen W2 including the total pipeline demolition costs for each fiscal year based on the fixed asset demolition costs when each existing pipeline is renewed at the renewal time determined by the planning unit 16, which are calculated based on the acquisition cost and remaining statutory useful life of the pipeline included in the pipeline attribute information and the renewal time of the existing pipeline determined by the planning unit 16.

[0086] <Pipeline information display screen W3> An example of the pipeline information display screen W3 will be described using FIG. 7 . The pipeline information display screen W3 displays various information about pipelines, including information about the pipelines actually installed in each existing pipeline and the renewal plan developed by the planning unit 16. In this embodiment, the pipeline information display screen W3 displays information about the selected existing pipeline when the user presses and selects an existing pipeline on the map. In the example shown in FIG. 7 , the pipeline information display screen W3 displays information about the pipeline attribute information, such as the pipe category and installation year, the pipe type and diameter, the post-renewal pipe type attribute and renewal time determined by the pipe type attribute determination unit 14, renewal costs including the standard renewal cost and the planned renewal cost taking into account the annual inflation rate, and the prediction results of the existing pipeline by the prediction unit 13, including the probability of deterioration over time and the remaining lifespan. In this embodiment, the pipeline information display screen W3 also displays the factors (negative factors) that most influenced the deterioration of the pipeline, as determined by the prediction unit 13 when predicting deterioration. In this embodiment, the display processing unit 17 displays and processes a pipeline information display screen W3 as shown in Figure 7 based on the pipeline attribute information of an existing pipeline stored in the memory unit 102, the prediction result of the deterioration of the existing pipeline by the prediction unit 13, the update plan including the update cost and update timing that was devised by the planning unit 16 and stored in association with the pipeline attribute information, and the post-update pipe type attributes determined by the pipe type attribute determination unit 14.

[0087] <How to create a renewal plan> The process flow for formulating an update plan in this embodiment will be described below with reference to Fig. 8. The process flow shown below is an example, and the process flow may be different from that described below.

[0088] <Renewal plan formulation process> When the user selects to start creating an update plan, the display processing unit 17 performs processing to display a setting screen W1 as shown in FIG. 5 (S101). The reception unit 11 receives various settings for creating an update plan, including an update budget, post-update pipe type conditions, and grouping conditions, input via the setting screen W1 (S102). When creating an update plan that takes into account the annual rate of price increase, the reception unit 11 further receives the annual rate of price increase via the setting screen W1. In this embodiment, the reception unit 11 stores the received update budget, post-update pipe type conditions, grouping conditions, and annual rate of price increase in the storage unit 102.

[0089] The acquisition unit 12 acquires pipeline attribute information of existing pipelines within the update range from the storage unit 102. The prediction unit 13 predicts deterioration of the existing pipelines based on the pipeline attribute information of each existing pipeline acquired by the acquisition unit 12, and determines the prediction result (S103). At this time, the prediction unit 13 determines the prediction result for two or more existing pipelines within the update range. The priority determination unit 15 determines the update priority of the existing pipelines within the update range based on the prediction result of the existing pipelines within the update range predicted by the prediction unit 13 (S104).

[0090] The acquisition unit 12 acquires the pipeline attribute information and pipe type information of the existing pipeline stored in the storage unit 102. The prediction unit 13 further performs deterioration prediction for multiple cases for each candidate pipe type attribute after updating based on the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline, and determines multiple prediction results after updating for each candidate pipe type attribute (S105). In this embodiment, the prediction unit 13 determines, for each candidate, a deterioration prediction result when a currently installed existing pipeline is updated to a candidate pipe for updating based on the pipe type information stored in the storage unit 102. The pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines a post-update pipe type attribute based on the post-update prediction results for each of the multiple candidate pipe type attributes predicted by the prediction unit 13 (S106). In this embodiment, the pipe type attribute determination unit 14 determines a post-update pipe type attribute that satisfies the conditions from the candidate pipe type attributes based on the post-update pipe type conditions input via the setting screen W1 shown in FIG. 5.

[0091] The planning unit 16 further groups multiple existing pipelines so as to treat them as a single pipeline based on the grouping conditions, the renewal order, and the pipe length included in the pipeline attribute information (S107). In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 groups pipelines based on grouping conditions, including conditions related to the renewal order and pipe length, input via the setting screen W1 shown in FIG. 5. The acquisition unit 12 acquires the post-renewal pipe type attribute, pipe type information, and renewal budget determined by the pipe type attribute determination unit 14. The planning unit 16 calculates the renewal cost of updating the existing pipeline to the post-renewal pipe type attribute based on the post-renewal pipe type attribute and pipe type information determined by the pipe type attribute determination unit 14, and determines the renewal timing based on the calculated renewal cost, renewal budget, and renewal priority, thereby formulating an renewal plan including the renewal cost and renewal timing (S108). In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 associates the formulated renewal plan, including the renewal cost and renewal timing, with the pipeline attribute information of each existing pipeline and stores it in the storage unit 102. By referencing the renewal plans for individual existing pipelines associated with the pipeline attribute information in this manner, the display processing unit 17 displays various screens such as the renewal cost display screen W2 shown in Figure 6 and the pipeline information display screen W3 shown in Figure 7.

[0092] In this embodiment, the planning unit 16 determines the replacement cost and replacement timing included in the replacement plan for pipelines grouped based on the grouping conditions, treating the grouped pipelines as a single pipeline. When formulating a replacement plan for grouped pipelines taking into account the annual rate of price increase, the planning unit 16 calculates the base replacement cost and the replacement cost (planned replacement cost) for each existing pipeline included in the group, taking into account the rate of price increase at the time of replacement. When calculating the planned replacement cost, the planning unit 16 calculates the planned replacement cost for each existing pipeline included in the group taking into account the replacement timing of the group, and stores the calculated planned replacement cost in the storage unit 102 in association with the pipeline attribute information of each existing pipeline. [Explanation of symbols]

[0093] 0 AI buried pipeline renewal planning system 1. AI buried pipeline renewal planning device 11 Reception 12 Acquisition Department 13 Prediction Department 14 Pipe type attribute determination section 15 Priority determination section 16 Planning Department 17 Display processing section

Claims

1. An AI buried pipeline renewal planning system, an acquisition unit that acquires pipe type information including the cost for updating a pipeline for each pipe type attribute, an update budget that is an annual budget for updating existing pipelines within the update range, and an update priority of the pipeline; a pipe type attribute determination unit that determines post-update pipe type attributes for existing pipelines within the update range based on post-update deterioration prediction results for each pipe type attribute; a planning unit that formulates an update plan for existing pipelines within the update range, including the update cost when the existing pipelines within the update range are updated to the post-update pipe type attributes based on the pipe type information, the post-update pipe type attributes, the update budget, and the update priority, and the pipeline update timing when the update is performed within the budget; Equipped with AI buried pipeline renewal planning system.

2. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system also: a prediction unit that predicts deterioration of the existing pipeline based on the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline within the update range stored in a storage unit; a priority determination unit that determines the renewal priority of the existing pipeline within the renewal range based on the prediction result by the prediction unit; Equipped with the planning unit determines the update timing based on the update priority, the update cost, and the update budget determined by the priority determination unit. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system according to claim 1.

3. The prediction unit further performs deterioration prediction for each pipe type attribute after updating the existing pipeline within the update range based on the pipeline attribute information, and determines multiple prediction results after updating for each pipe type attribute; the pipe type attribute determination unit determines the post-update pipe type attribute based on the post-update prediction result; the acquisition unit acquires the updated pipe type attribute determined by the prediction unit. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system according to claim 2.

4. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further includes: It has a reception section that accepts the annual rate of price increase. The planning unit further formulates the renewal plan taking into account price increases based on the annual rate of increase. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system according to claim 1.

5. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further includes: a receiving unit that receives post-renewal pipe type conditions, which are conditions related to the cost and / or performance of the pipeline, for determining the post-renewal pipe type attributes; the pipe type attribute determination unit determines the updated pipe type attribute from the plurality of pipe type attributes based on the updated prediction result by the prediction unit and the updated pipe type condition. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system according to claim 3.

6. The post-update pipe type condition is an allowable range of performance degradation from a pipe with the least deteriorated pipe type attribute. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system according to claim 5.

7. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further includes: A display processing unit is provided that displays an update cost display screen that shows the total update cost of the existing pipelines within the update range by year based on the update plan. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system according to claim 1.

8. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system further includes: a reception unit that receives grouping conditions for existing pipelines, including conditions for the range of renewal order and / or the range of pipe extension of existing pipelines; The planning unit further groups a plurality of existing pipelines whose renewal order is within a range and / or whose pipe length is within a range based on the grouping conditions, and formulates the renewal plan. The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning system according to claim 2.

9. An AI buried pipeline renewal planning method executed by a computer device, comprising: the computing device includes at least one processing unit configured to execute computer-readable instructions stored in a memory unit; The AI ​​buried pipeline renewal planning method includes: an acquisition process for acquiring pipe type information including the cost for updating pipelines for each pipe type attribute, an update budget which is an annual budget for updating existing pipelines within the update range, and an update priority of the pipelines; a pipe type attribute determination step of determining post-update pipe type attributes for existing pipelines within the update range based on post-update deterioration prediction results for each pipe type attribute; a planning process for formulating an update plan for existing pipelines within the update range, including the update cost when updating existing pipelines within the update range to the post-update pipe type attributes, and the pipeline update timing when updating is performed within the budget, based on the pipe type information, the post-update pipe type attributes, the update budget, and the update priority; Including, AI buried pipeline renewal planning method.

10. An AI buried pipeline renewal planning program, an acquisition unit that acquires pipe type information including the cost for updating a pipeline for each pipe type attribute, an update budget that is an annual budget for updating existing pipelines within the update range, and an update priority of the pipeline; a pipe type attribute determination unit that determines post-update pipe type attributes for existing pipelines within the update range based on post-update deterioration prediction results for each pipe type attribute; a planning unit that formulates an update plan for existing pipelines within the update range, including the update cost when the existing pipelines within the update range are updated to the post-update pipe type attributes based on the pipe type information, the post-update pipe type attributes, the update budget, and the update priority, and the pipeline update timing when the update is performed within the budget; as, make the computer function, AI buried pipeline renewal planning program.

Images