Exit prediction system and group indicator display system

Abstract

To provide a system for predicting people who are at risk of leaving (leaving school, leaving a tutoring school, leaving a company, dropping out) or the like in the future, or a system for analyzing a type-chart for a group indicator including people at risk of leaving in the future in an affiliated institution.SOLUTION: An exit prediction system executes: a step of calculating an indicator related to each member's satisfaction level with an affiliated organization based on answers obtained by obtaining answers to a multiple-choice questionnaire consisting of a plurality of question lists for each member; a fuel indicator calculation step of calculating a fuel indicator given to each member by giving approach; a coordinate display step of displaying a coordinate symbol consisting of the fuel indicator and the satisfaction level indicator calculated for each member on a two-dimensional map including a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; and a classification step of dividing the two-dimensional map into a plurality of classification areas and classifying which of the plurality of classification areas the coordinate symbol of each member on the two-dimensional map belongs to.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a system for visualizing and displaying the tendency of each member of an organization to leave the organization in the future. The group index display system of the present invention also relates to a system for categorizing each member of an organization, visualizing the distribution of these types, and displaying the group index of the organization. [Background technology]

[0002] Conventionally, a method has been disclosed as a personality diagnosis system and method in which an average value of personality diagnosis results based on answers from a plurality of other people is compared with the result of a personality diagnosis made by the person himself / herself (Patent Document 1: JP 2007-226531 A).

[0003] Furthermore, as a method, system, and program for determining the degree of dementia, a determination system has been disclosed in which a coefficient representing the degree of dementia is calculated using all of age, years of education, maximum walking speed, and TMTA test score, and if the calculated coefficient P for a subject is greater than a preset value, the subject is determined to have dementia (Patent Document 2: Patent 06207547).

[0004] Furthermore, a conventional method for estimating personal characteristics has been disclosed in which factor scores set for each factor are aggregated and weighted for each factor, and the target evaluation values ​​held by the individual at that time are found as a linear model of each of the weighted factors, and judgment information is obtained as to whether or not a group of workers is distributed in a desirable area, whether or not the distribution variation is too large, etc. (Patent Document 3: JP 2003-006566 A).

[0005] In general, various intelligence test models have been created based on the CHC theory, which is an intelligence theory, and intelligence tests using these intelligence test models and research based on the test results are being conducted. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2007-226531 [Patent Document 2] Patent No. 06207547 [Patent Document 3] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2003-006566 DISCLOSURE OF THE INVENTION [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0007] All of the above-mentioned systems and methods calculate specific indices based on the test results of a subject, and diagnose or estimate the characteristics or symptoms of the subject.

[0008] However, these various systems and methods only evaluate the test results of the subject at the time of diagnosis. In other words, the above systems do not show the test trends or behavioral characteristics of the subject after the test, so they cannot be used as they are to predict future changes in the subject's behavior, such as withdrawal from the institution to which they belong (withdrawal from school, cram school, company, or mid-career).

[0009] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above circumstances, and aims to provide a system that can predict future risk of withdrawal (such as dropping out of school, cram school, company, or mid-career) of a subject, or a system that can perform a type chart analysis of organizational indicators including those at risk of future withdrawal at the affiliated institution. [Means for solving the problem]

[0010] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides the following measures (1) to (9). (1) The exit prediction system according to the present invention is A withdrawal prediction system that displays future withdrawal trends (predicted dropout or withdrawal) from an affiliated institution for multiple members who are enrolled in the institution and whose grades are measured, a motivational approach providing step of providing a plurality of motivational approaches to each member for a predetermined period of time; an answering step of acquiring answers to a multiple-choice questionnaire consisting of a list of multiple questions from each member; a satisfaction index calculation step of calculating an index relating to the satisfaction of each member with the organization to which the member belongs, based on the answers to a specific group of questions among the answers obtained in the answering step; a fuel index calculation step of calculating a fuel index assigned to each member in the approach assignment step; The fuel index is a first coordinate axis, and the satisfaction index is a second coordinate axis intersecting the first coordinate axis, a coordinate display step of displaying coordinate symbols consisting of the fuel index and the satisfaction index calculated for each member on a two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; The two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of high / low fuel index classification and high / low satisfaction index classification, a classification step of classifying the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map into which of the plurality of classification areas the coordinate symbols belong; An exit prediction system comprising: However, a motivational approach means a proactive approach to motivate members to improve their performance, and includes at least encouraging, advising, and guiding members, and listening to their opinions (complaints or worries).

[0011] (2) (Normalized variable value) Instead of or in addition to the coordinate display step and the classification step, The method may also include a staff index calculation step of calculating the values ​​of standardized variables for each fuel index and satisfaction index based on the combination of the fuel index and satisfaction index calculated for each member and the average score and standard deviation of the fuel index and satisfaction index of all members employed at the organization to which they belong.

[0012] The normalized variable is expressed by the following formula: Scaled variable = (raw score - mean score) ÷ standard deviation

[0013] (3) performing the approach assignment step, the response step, the satisfaction index calculation step, and the fuel index calculation step for all members of the organization; performing a coordinate overlap display step of overlapping and displaying coordinate symbols consisting of the calculated fuel index and satisfaction index for all members belonging to the organization on a common two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; The common two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate overlap display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of a high / low fuel index classification and a high / low satisfaction index classification, a classification step of classifying, for all members belonging to the organization, which of the plurality of classification areas the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map belong to; The withdrawal prediction system according to claim 1, characterized by carrying out a chart display step of displaying a chart showing the proportion of each classification area in the affiliated institution into which all affiliated members have been classified.

[0014] (4) (Student withdrawal prediction system in learning institutions) The affiliated institution is a learning institution (school or cram school) with instructors (teachers) for each of multiple subjects, The members are students who belong to the learning institution and whose grades in multiple subjects are regularly assessed, The question list in the answering step includes at least: A set of IQ / EQ questions regarding each of the indicators of C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf. A satisfaction / motivation question set regarding the student's evaluation or satisfaction with their institution, their instructor, other members of their institution, or their own performance; It consists of a set of questions about the current stress that members themselves are experiencing, The fuel index calculation step includes: The satisfaction index is calculated by an additive formula in which each additive term consisting of at least two or more index value terms from among C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf, and an index value term for the motivational approach received by the member, is multiplied by a predetermined coefficient, The satisfaction index calculation step The satisfaction index is calculated using an additive formula in which a predetermined coefficient is multiplied by each of additive terms consisting of at least two or more index values ​​from among C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf, an index value for satisfaction with the affiliated institution, and an index value for the stress of members.

[0015] (5) (Gap function: Adds stakeholder satisfaction based on stakeholder survey responses) The answering step includes obtaining a questionnaire answer from a target member whose withdrawal tendency is predicted and displayed, and a questionnaire answer from a person involved with the target member; The satisfaction index calculation step is characterized by further adding an additive term to the index value relating to the satisfaction of each member with the affiliated institution based on the answers to a specific group of questions from the answers from the stakeholders obtained in the answering step. Furthermore, the fuel index calculation step may further include adding an additive term to the index value of the motivation approach by the person involved. Alternatively, the satisfaction index calculation step may include: Calculating a personal index value relating to the satisfaction of each member with the organization to which he or she belongs based only on the answers from the relevant persons obtained in the answering step; A stakeholder index value relating to the satisfaction of each member with the organization to which the member belongs is calculated based only on the responses from the stakeholders obtained in the response step; The person index value and the related person index value may be stored in association with each other as separate values ​​that identify the same subject. In this case, the coordinate overlap display step, classification step, and chart display step may be capable of switching between a display based on the person's answers and a display based on the answers of related parties using the gap function, or a chart based on the person's index value and a chart based on the related party index value may be displayed side by side or overlapping each other. Furthermore, the personal index value and related party index value may be displayed simultaneously on a chart based on the personal index value. Alternatively, only subjects whose personal index value and related person index value differ by a predetermined threshold or more may be displayed.

[0016] (6) (Group Indicator Display System) The organizational index display system of the present invention considers the five-dimensional coordinates of the Big 5 personality test and calculates the distance between each point: it includes the steps of calculating the square root of the sum of the squares of the differences between each index, and adopting points where the distance between each point is less than a predetermined threshold (for example, 2.2), classifying the type with the smallest value among them as the classification type of the member, and displaying a chart of the attribute ratios of all members belonging to the organization.

[0017] (7) (※Gap function to compare and calculate stakeholder satisfaction) In the exit prediction system described in (1), The answering step includes obtaining a questionnaire answer from a target member whose withdrawal tendency is predicted and displayed, and a questionnaire answer from a person involved with the target member; The satisfaction index calculation step A satisfaction index value regarding the satisfaction of each member with the organization to which they belong is calculated based on the answers to a specific group of questions from the answers from the target members obtained in the answering step. and calculating a stakeholder satisfaction index relating to the satisfaction of each member with the organization to which the member belongs based on the answers to a specific group of questions from the answers from the stakeholders of the target members obtained in the answering step, The coordinate display step includes: The coordinate symbols consisting of the fuel index and satisfaction index value calculated for each member are displayed on a two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis, and A related party coordinate symbol consisting of the fuel index and the related party satisfaction index calculated for each member is displayed superimposed on the two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis, and The classification step includes: The two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of high / low fuel index classification and high / low satisfaction index classification, Classifying the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map into which of the plurality of classification areas they belong; The two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of a high / low classification of the fuel index and a high / low classification of the stakeholder satisfaction index, Classifying the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map to which of the plurality of classification areas they belong; The feature is that these categories are displayed side by side.

[0018] (8) (*Gap value is calculated as a comparison value) In the exit prediction system described in (2), The enrollment index calculation step includes: Based on the combination of fuel index and satisfaction index calculated for each member and the average score and standard deviation of the fuel index and satisfaction index of all members enrolled in the organization, the value of the standardized variable for each fuel index and satisfaction index is calculated using the formula "standardized variable = (raw score - average score) ÷ standard deviation" and This is an exit prediction system that calculates the standardized variable values ​​for each fuel index and stakeholder satisfaction index as comparative values ​​using the formula "standardized variable = (raw score - average score) ÷ standard deviation" based on the combination of fuel index and stakeholder satisfaction index calculated for each member and the average score and standard deviation of the fuel index and stakeholder satisfaction index for all members employed at the organization.

[0019] (9) (※Gap value results are shown in parallel) In the exit prediction system described in (3), The approach providing step, the response step, the satisfaction index calculation step, and the fuel index calculation step are performed for all members of the organization, The answering step, the stakeholder satisfaction index calculation step, and the fuel index calculation step are respectively performed for specific stakeholders of all members belonging to the organization; a coordinate overlap display step of displaying, for all members belonging to the organization, coordinate symbols consisting of the calculated fuel index and satisfaction index and coordinate symbols consisting of the calculated fuel index and stakeholder satisfaction index side by side on separate two-dimensional maps consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; The exit prediction system performs a chart display step of displaying in parallel the proportions of each classification area at the affiliated institution, which are displayed in parallel and classified in the overlap classification step, in separate chart formats. [Effects of the Invention]

[0020] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide an exit prediction system that can predict and display the future exit trends of members belonging to an affiliated institution based on survey responses to a set of questions that combine the five major factors, GRIT, and motivational approaches or satisfaction indicators, and a system for displaying organizational indicators of members that include exit predictions. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0021] [Figure 1] 1 is a conceptual diagram of an example configuration of an exit prediction system. [Figure 2] An example of parallel display in the coordinate overlap display step. [Figure 3] An example of parallel display in chart display steps. [Figure 4A] Conceptual diagram of the five major factor categories. [Figure 4B] Conceptual diagram of ability factor categories. [Figure 5] Specific examples of basic questions. [Figure 6] Specific examples of basic questions. [Figure 7] Specific examples of additional question group A. [Figure 8] Specific examples of additional question group B.

[0022] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0023] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following, character strings shown as numbers or letters immediately following various terms are symbols added for convenience in order to facilitate reference to the drawings as examples. The character strings themselves do not have a concept, do not limit the meaning of the terms, and do not limit the configuration of the examples, etc. The processing system of the at-risk person detection system of the present invention basically has the configuration shown in FIG. 1.

[0024] The exit prediction system of the present invention comprises: This system assumes that multiple members are enrolled at an institution whose grades are regularly evaluated, and predicts the likelihood of each member remaining enrolled at the institution in the future, i.e., the likelihood of them dropping out, leaving the cram school, quitting their job, dropping out, etc.

[0025] The main exit prediction system is configured, for example, as shown in Figure 1, from a server S, a device T1, and a device T2. This system configuration performs an exit prediction method consisting of the following steps to predict the exit of current employees.

[0026] The results of the exit prediction are output as coordinate symbols plotted on a two-dimensional map categorized into four regions: "high satisfaction index and high fuel index" region (top right), "low satisfaction index and high fuel index" region (bottom right), "low satisfaction index and low fuel index" region (bottom left), and "high satisfaction index and low fuel index" region (top left), as shown in Figure 2. Each coordinate symbol indicates the calculated coordinate of each member's "satisfaction index - fuel index."

[0027] Each index is calculated based on the answers of the members of the company to the questionnaires shown in Figures 5 and 6 (basic questions), Figure 7 (additional questions A), and Figure 8 (additional questions B).

[0028] (Exit prediction method of the present invention) According to the exit prediction method of the present invention, it is possible to calculate the exit index for each member belonging to an institution. Furthermore, by calculating the exit index for all members belonging to an institution, it is possible to output the trends of each exit index for all members enrolled in the institution as a two-dimensional map as shown in Figure 2, and also possible to output a typology chart of all members enrolled in the institution as shown in Figure 3.

[0029] In particular, as shown in Figure 2, the tendency of each exit index is calculated as a coordinate of (fuel index value, satisfaction index value) on a two-dimensional map with the satisfaction index (high-low) as the first coordinate axis and the fuel index (high-low) as the second coordinate axis.

[0030] (Method for predicting exit for each member) The method for predicting the exit of each member is carried out through the following steps for each member belonging to the affiliated institution. A motivational approach providing step of providing each member with a plurality of motivational approaches during a predetermined period of time; A response step for acquiring responses to a multiple-choice questionnaire consisting of a list of multiple questions from each member; a satisfaction index calculation step of calculating an index relating to the satisfaction of each member with the organization based on the answers to a specific group of questions among the answers obtained in the answer step; a fuel index calculation step of calculating a fuel index assigned to each member by the approach assignment step; The fuel index is a first coordinate axis, and the satisfaction index is a second coordinate axis intersecting the first coordinate axis, a coordinate display step of displaying coordinate symbols consisting of the fuel index and the satisfaction index calculated for each member on a two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; The two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of a high / low fuel index classification and a high / low satisfaction index classification, A classification step of classifying to which of the plurality of classification areas the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map belong.

[0031] (Motivational approach) The motivational approach refers to a proactive approach to motivate members to improve their performance, and includes at least encouraging, advising, and guiding members, and listening to their opinions (complaints or worries).

[0032] (Method for predicting withdrawal for all members) The method for predicting the withdrawal of all members is carried out through the following steps for all members belonging to the affiliated institution. An approach granting step of granting multiple proactive approaches to all members of the affiliated institution during a predetermined period of time; A response step of acquiring responses to a multiple-choice questionnaire consisting of a list of multiple questions from all members of the organization; a satisfaction index calculation step of calculating an index of satisfaction of each member with the organization based on the answers to a specific group of questions among the answers obtained in the answer step for all members belonging to the organization; A fuel index calculation step for calculating the fuel index assigned to each member in the approach assignment step for all members belonging to the organization; The fuel index is a first coordinate axis, and the satisfaction index is a second coordinate axis intersecting the first coordinate axis, a map display step of displaying the fuel index and the satisfaction index calculated for all members belonging to the organization on a two-dimensional chart having a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; a region dividing step of dividing the two-dimensional chart generated by the map display step of the exit prediction system into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of high / low fuel index classification and high / low satisfaction index classification; a classification step of determining to which of the plurality of classification areas determined by the area division step the coordinates of the fuel index and satisfaction index of each member mapped on the two-dimensional chart belong; - Perform the classification step for all members of the organization; A chart display step for displaying a chart showing the proportion of each classification area in the institution into which all members are classified.

[0033] (Answer step) In the response step, responses to the questionnaires shown in Figures 5, 6 (basic questions), 7 (additional questions A), and 8 (additional questions B) are obtained from enrolled members. The questionnaire may combine the basic questions and additional questions A, or may further combine additional questions B. Each question is intended to obtain an index of the evaluation element shown in the "Notes at the time of planning" column. The survey subjects are limited to those listed in the "Text" column, and responses are obtained using a specified numerical scale (1-3 or 1-5). In the example of Figure 5, for example, the question "eq: 70, junior high school students and above: rather quiet" is asked to members of junior high school students and above, and responses are obtained by selecting a numerical value from 1, 2, or 3. This allows for an index of low extroversion to be obtained.

[0034] (Classification of Questions in the Survey) The questions in the survey are categorized into the following two categories: questions about "curiosity" and questions about "satisfaction."

[0035] Questions about [Curiosity] [Expectations] Questions about expectations for cram school / school [Attractiveness] Questions about the attractiveness of the cram school / school (positive evaluation) [Instrumentality] Questions about the instrumental use of cram schools / schools Questions about [Satisfaction]

[0036] The questions in the survey are categorized by attributes such as the member's grade level (lower elementary school, upper elementary school, junior high school, high school, university, working adult) and the type of institution they belong to (cram school, school, vocational school).The survey targets are not limited to the members themselves who are being predicted to drop out, but also include related individuals such as the members' parents, teachers, siblings, and friends.

[0037] (Basic Questions) The basic questions consist of questions about the five major factors, Grit, and Gf, as shown in Figures 5 and 6.

[0038] (Contents of Additional Questions A) The additional question group A is a group of questions that measure indicators that are more likely to change than the basic question group (such as satisfaction, motivation, and learning strategies), as shown in Figure 7. Specifically, it is divided into question group A-IQ, which is about IQ indicators Gs (processing speed) and Gwm (working memory), and question group A-EQ, which is about EQ indicators.

[0039] The satisfaction questionnaire consists of questions to calculate indicators of the satisfaction of the members or the motivational approaches (instruction, dialogue, or learning strategies) that the members received. Specifically, the questionnaire includes the following:

[0040] Satisfaction with life, satisfaction with one's time, satisfaction with school, satisfaction with home, satisfaction with cram school, satisfaction with teachers, whether the teacher talks about practical utility value, whether the teacher talks about institutional utility value, whether the teacher talks about self-generation of utility value, test anxiety, past grades, strategic approach, deep approach, superficial approach, self-efficacy for attendance, self-efficacy for grades, competitiveness towards learning, attraction to learning, instrumentalism-institutional utility value for learning, instrumentalism-practical utility value for learning, relationship with seniors, relationship with family, relationship with friends, family composition, things in the house, number of books (other than magazines and manga), number of books (magazines and manga), conversations at home, extracurricular activities, how one spends one's time, pocket money, frequency of going out

[0041] (Indicator of satisfaction with affiliated institution) The answers to the satisfaction questions above allow for the calculation of an additive index of satisfaction with the institution. The more multiple motivational approaches are used to motivate members, the higher the index value in this section tends to be.

[0042] (Contents of Additional Questions B) Additional Question Group B is a group of questions for calculating stress-related indicators such as stressors, social support, and stress reactions, as shown in Figure 8.

[0043] (Enrollment index Ei and withdrawal index Wi and dropout index Di) The enrollment index Ei is an index that shows the statistical probability that a member will remain enrolled at their affiliated institution in the future. The higher the enrollment index, the longer the period (number of days) that the member will remain enrolled at their affiliated institution in the future. The cram school withdrawal index Wi and school dropout index Di are both forms of this enrollment index Ei, and are indicators for when the affiliated institution is a cram school and when it is a school, respectively. A high enrollment index Ei directly indicates a high cram school and school dropout index Wi and Di. The actual formulas for the withdrawal index Wi and the dropout index Di are different in terms of parameters and coefficients, so they are calculated using different formulas. (However, in the example screen, they are displayed as the "enrollment index.") Other examples of affiliated institutions include profit-making and non-profit business organizations, volunteer, ideological, and political activity organizations, research organizations such as academic societies and testing institutions, and sports and recreational organizations such as athletic and recreational organizations. The enrollment index for each affiliated institution is calculated using a specific index formula.

[0044] (Specific details of the calculation formula) Below are specific examples of the cram school dropout index Wi, which is the cram school enrollment index Ei, and the school dropout index Di, which is the school enrollment index Ei. (Example of basic addition term in calculation step) The basic addition terms in the calculation step include at least the terms of the factors C, A, E, N, O, and GRIT, and preferably frequency, formality, and Gf are added in addition to the six terms mentioned above.

[0045] Here, C, A, E, N, and O are the five main factors shown in Figure 4, and one index value for each factor is determined based on the response value of each additive term questionnaire.

[0046] Furthermore, when these basic addition terms are added together to form a basic addition formula, each of these basic addition terms is multiplied by a predetermined coefficient, and each term is adjusted based on the questionnaire response values ​​so that the index of each term has the same maximum value.

[0047] (Example of other additive terms in the calculation step) Examples of other addition terms in the calculation step include the following items a to e and A to H. +a (Satisfaction with the school divided by 4) + b (total raw score for teacher satisfaction ÷ 6 ÷ number of teachers rated) + c (self-efficacy for grades / number of subjects assessed) +d (lessons, clubs) +e((things in the house + number of books (other than magazines and manga) + number of books (magazines and manga))÷3) + A (satisfaction with school ÷ 4) + B (total raw score for satisfaction with teachers ÷ 6 ÷ number of teachers rated) +C (past grades ÷ 20) +D (Self-efficacy for grades ÷ 20) + E(((Attractiveness of learning ÷ 3) + (Instrumentality of learning - Institutional utility value ÷ 3) + (Instrumentality of learning - Practical utility value ÷ 3)) ÷ 3) + F(((Relationship with senior ÷ 4) + (total raw score for social support ÷ 4 ÷ 5)) ÷ 2) +G (total raw score of stress response ÷ 4 ÷ 4) + H((things in the house + number of books (other than magazines and manga) + number of books (magazines and manga)) ÷ 3)

[0048] (School dropout index Wi) The withdrawal index Wi is calculated using the following formula 1. However, on the screen of the embodiment, the withdrawal index is displayed as a higher-level concept, the "enrollment index."

[0049] (Equation 1) Wi= 0C+0A+0E+0N+0O+0GRIT+0Frequency+0Formal+0Gf +a (Satisfaction with the school divided by 4) + b (total raw score for teacher satisfaction ÷ 6 ÷ number of teachers rated) + c (self-efficacy for grades / number of subjects assessed) +d (lessons, clubs) +e((things in the house + number of books (other than magazines and manga) + number of books (magazines and manga))÷3)

[0050] The above calculation formula consists of a combination of additive terms of the five main factors, Grit (the ability to persevere), a satisfaction index a, an evaluation index b of the affiliated institution, a self-evaluation index c, an index d of affiliations with other affiliated institutions, and an index e of possessions.

[0051] However, "0" in each term is a predetermined coefficient, which is set as an initial value or corrected by multiple regression analysis.

[0052] (Dropout index Di) The dropout index Di is calculated, for example, by the following formula 2. However, on the screen of the embodiment, the dropout index is displayed as a higher-level concept, the "enrollment index."

[0053] (Equation 2) Di = 0C+0A+0E+0N+0O+0GRIT+0Frequency+0Formal+0Gf +A (satisfaction with school ÷ 4) +B (total teacher satisfaction score ÷ 6 ÷ number of teachers rated) +C (past grades ÷ 20) +D (Self-efficacy for grades ÷ 20) + E(((Attractiveness of learning ÷ 3) + (Instrumentality of learning - Institutional utility value ÷ 3) + (Instrumentality of learning - Practical utility value ÷ 3)) ÷ 3) + F(((Relationship with senior ÷ 4) + (total raw score for social support ÷ 4 ÷ 5)) ÷ 2) +G (total raw score of stress response ÷ 4 ÷ 4) + H((things in the house + number of books (other than magazines and manga) + number of books (magazines and manga)) ÷ 3)

[0054] However, Gf is intelligence measured by an intelligence test. The above calculation formula consists of a combination of additive terms of the five main factors, Grit (the ability to persevere), satisfaction index A, evaluation index b of affiliated institution, self-evaluation index c, affiliation index d of other affiliated institutions, and possessions index e.

[0055] The "0" in each term is a predetermined coefficient, which is set as an initial value or corrected by multiple regression analysis.

[0056] (Method of calculating typology) Plot classification is performed based on the distance between each point as shown below. (1) Calculate the normalized variable: normalized variable = (raw score - mean score) ÷ standard deviation (2) Thinking in terms of the five-dimensional coordinates of the Big 5 personality test, calculate the distance from each point: calculate the square root of the sum of the squares of the differences between each indicator. (3) Points with a distance of 2.2 or less are adopted, and the type with the smallest value among them is classified as the classification type of the member. (4) Those who were not hired were classified as "other."

[0057] Table 1 shows the following plot example. 5-dimensional coordinate N E OAC Average -0.61 0.46 -0.66 0.21 0.27 Self-centered 0.34 0.67 -0.88 -0.41 -0.7 Reserved (modest) 0.71 -0.18 -0.9 0.06 0.28 Role model (exemplary) 0.97 0.69 0.5 0.64 0.8 Oters (Others)

[0058] Where N stands for emotional instability, E for extroversion, O for openness to experience, A for agreeableness, and C for conscientiousness.

[0059] (Regarding satisfaction) If you have taken the additional question group before A, but not after A, Cram school (school) students: (3EvaE1+EvaE2+EvaE3+EvaE4) / 6 (min=1,Max=5,center=3) Teacher: SatW1 (min=1,Max=5,center=3) Guardian: (EvaEX1+EvaEX2+EvaEX3+EvaEX4) / 4 (min=1,Max=5,Center=3)

[0060] If you have taken the additional questions before A or after A, Cram school student: (SatL+(3EvaE1+EvaE2+EvaE3+EvaE4) / 6+SatH+SatM+SatS) / 5 (min=1, max=5, center=3) School students: (SatL+(3EvaE1+EvaE2+EvaE3+EvaE4) / 6+SatH+SatM) / 4 (min=1,Max=5,Center=3) Teacher:(SatL+SatW+SatH+SatM) / 4 (min=1,Max=5,center=3) Guardian:(6EvaEY1+EvaEY2+EvaEY3+EvaEY4+EvaEY5+EvaEY6+EvaEY7) / 12 (min=1,Max=5,Center=3)

[0061] (Proactive Approach (Fuel)) Proactive approach (fuel) is a parameter that positively indicates the tendency to stay at the institution. If you have taken the additional question group before A, but not after A, Cram school (school) students: (EffA+EffG+MotLP+MotLS+MotLL+MotLC) / 6 (min=1,Max=5,center=3) University students: (EffA+EffG+MotLP+MotLS+MotLL+MotLC+ComU+ComG) / 8 (min=1, max=5, center=3) Teacher: (EffG+MotLP+MotLS+MotLL+MotLC) / 5 (min=1,Max=5,Center=3) Guardian:(ExpU+ExpP+MotLP+MotLS+MotLL+MotLC) / 6 (min=1,Max=5,Center=3)

[0062] (Method of detecting people leaving) The method for detecting a person at risk of leaving by the processing program of the system for detecting a person at risk of leaving of the present invention includes the steps of: A first step involves calculating each candidate's IQ, EQ, and GRIT index based on the results of a multiple-choice test completed by each candidate; A second step of calculating an exit indicator using a calculation formula consisting of a polynomial of each indicator value, which is set or adjusted within the system; A third step involves extracting and sorting subjects according to group attributes; and a fourth step of detecting and displaying subjects who belong to a lower predetermined percentage or a predetermined percentage or less within the subject group as at-risk subjects.

[0063] Here, the calculation formula used in the second step is: an accumulation step of periodically accepting and accumulating data consisting of past and future trends of withdrawal (withdrawal from school, cram school, company, dropping out) or worsening trends of friendships, which have been published as papers or recorded by grade management institutions such as cram schools and schools, and each index value; and an adjustment step of adjusting the coefficients of the set polynomial by multiple regression analysis based on the input data.

[0064] By repeating the accumulation step and the adjustment step, the calculation formula updated to the latest coefficients at the time of calculation is used in the second step.

[0065] (First step) In the first step, the IQ, EQ, and GRIT index values ​​are derived based on the candidate's input results from a multiple-choice test and stored together with the candidate's identification tag. As will be described later, if a third-party evaluation is conducted in addition to the self-evaluation, in addition to the derivation and storage of each index value based on the self-evaluation, additional data consisting of the derived values ​​of each index value based on a third-party evaluation and the third-party's attribute data is additionally stored as a gap function along with the candidate's identification tag data.

[0066] (About the Gap function (comparing the difference in values ​​between different measurers)) The gap function is a function that compares, for example, the values ​​of A's IQ and EQ measured by A himself / herself with the values ​​of A's IQ and EQ measured by a third party other than A. In the first step, in addition to the stored data of each index value measured by A himself / herself, each index value measured by a third party is additionally stored as third-party measurement data. Furthermore, the gap (value difference) between each index value measured by the self and each index value measured by a third party may also be additionally stored.

[0067] (Second step) In the second step, the IQ, EQ, and GRIT index values ​​derived based on the candidate's input results from a multiple-choice test are used to calculate the risk value for each trend using a calculation formula for each trend that has been pre-set and adjusted internally, and the risk value and calculation formula are linked and stored for each candidate.

[0068] However, it is also possible to use multiple calculation formulas that are set in advance for each trend to be detected, and store each risk value for multiple trends together with an identification tag, and the test input results may be stored not only by the candidate himself / herself, but also by the father, mother, or teacher in charge.

[0069] (Calculation formula) Depending on the trend you want to detect, a "polynomial consisting of an IQ index term, an EQ index term, and an attribute term" is set as a formula for calculating the risk value. Each term is multiplied by an adjustment coefficient, and the adjustment coefficient is either an initial value set based on a predetermined standard, or an adjusted value set or adjusted in an adjustment step after being set or adjusted. When a coefficient is adjusted, the latest coefficient is used as the latest value, as a general rule.

[0070] The formula for calculating future withdrawal (withdrawal from school, cram school, job, dropout) trends FVg is specifically α', which is the product of the coefficient α multiplied by the term Gf (fluid intelligence), which is one element of the IQ index value. The Gf' term, the β'C' term obtained by multiplying the 'C' (conscientiousness) index value term, which is one of the elements of EQ, by the coefficient β, and the γ'GRIT' term obtained by multiplying the 'GRIT' (ability / passion) index value term, by the coefficient γ, are: It has a basic term of αGf + βC + γGRIT, and is composed of the following formula, in which one or more additive terms (attribute terms) related to attributes are added to this basic term.

[0071] (Formula 1) FVg = αGf + βC + γGRIT +δY+εS+ζN+ηD+ιBs+κBps+λCl+μAdm+νAdf

[0072] Specifically, the formula for calculating the friendship deterioration trend FVf is the αN term obtained by multiplying the N (emotional stability) term by the coefficient α, the βF term obtained by multiplying the E (extraversion) index value, which is one of the elements of EQ, by the coefficient β, and the γA term obtained by multiplying the A (agreeableness) index, which is one of the elements of EQ, by the coefficient γ. The formula is as follows: αN+βE+γA is the basic term, and one or more additive terms (attribute terms) related to attributes are added to this basic term. (Formula 2) FVf=αN+βE+γA +δY+εS+ζN+ηD+ιBs+κBps+λCl+μAdm+νAdf

[0073] (additive term) In addition, it is preferable to add and set in advance the attribute terms based on differences in nationality, gender, or environment, such as the candidate's age Y, gender S, nationality N, preferred school D, school Bs, learning institution Bps, and class Cl at each school or learning institution, and the age difference Adm / Adf between the candidate and their mother / father. The summation term is, for example, the following equation: (Formula 3) δY+εS+ζN+ηD+ιBs+κBps+λCl+μAdm+νAdf (However, the addition term can be set arbitrarily.)

[0074] When an attribute term is an additive term, the coefficient is set to an arbitrary value based on a predetermined rule. For example, by setting the value of the coefficient for gender S to 0 for men and 1 for women in advance, a formula with the term (1·)S will always result in a female candidate, making it easy to extract the target person's formula from a large number of candidates without adding tag information for sorting conditions.

[0075] In particular, the additive term can be the sum of terms for multiple schools that a candidate may wish to attend in the future, and coefficients can be set in advance according to the degree of preference. By doing so, in the third step, extraction can be made taking into account the degree of preference for each candidate's school of choice.

[0076] For example, if we consider the following attribute terms as additive terms: age Y = 16 years old, gender S = male, nationality N = Japan, desired school D = x university, y university, z university, affiliated school Bs = p school, affiliated learning institution Bps = q cram school, and also the class Cl = s class at each affiliated school or affiliated learning institution, and the age difference between mother and father Adm / Adf = 7 / 6, then The sum is 16Y+0S+81N+11D+12D+13D+14D+101Bs+11Bps+2C+7Adm+6Adf. Note that in the sum, the coefficients are examples of arbitrarily set values.

[0077] (Attribute classification) The attribute classification in the summation term is a classification for sorting the attribute labels of the target students as input data. For example, It consists of an S code (either "S0" or "S1") indicating male or female, an N code ("N + country code") indicating nationality, a B code ("B + affiliation number") indicating the institution to which the person belongs, a G code ("G + grade number") indicating the grade, and a Cl code ("Cl + class number") indicating the class.

[0078] Specifically, in the input step, the candidate, their guardian (mother or father), or supervisor inputs the following items. · Your Gf, Gs, Gwm, 'GRIT', E, O, N, C, A, Gender, Date of Birth, - The person's 'GRIT', E, O, N, C, A as seen by a third party, and the third party's date of birth Standard deviation SS · What parents expect from cram schools (developing habits / changing awareness / teaching knowledge / improving grades) ·Expected teaching method (strict / medium / lenient) ·How to manage learning (stricter / maintain status quo / relaxed) Other lessons (yes or no) How much contact the person has with their family (frequent / moderate / rare) Siblings (whether or not you have an older brother / older sister / younger brother / younger sister)

[0079] Of the above input data string, the following items are input as the following data values, for example: · What parents expect from the cram school, expected teaching methods, learning management methods = 0 / 1 value based on positive / negative, abstract / concrete, optimistic / pessimistic attributes · Extracurricular activities = (Yes 0 / No 1), "How much contact the person has with their family" = numerical value (hours of contact per week), "sibling composition" = four-digit number of siblings (e.g., 1001)

[0080] (Gap function) In the first step, a candidate's index value is determined and stored based on input from a multiple-choice test. Based on input from the candidate's self-assessment, each index value is derived and stored along with the candidate's identification tag. In the second step, the values ​​of each index value are applied as the terms of the calculation formula to calculate and store the self-assessed enrollment index (school dropout index).

[0081] However, even for the same candidate, the input results will differ between the self-assessment in which the candidate himself / herself enters a multiple-choice test and the other-assessment in which the father / mother or supervisor enters a multiple-choice test. For this reason, in addition to storing the calculation results of each index value based on the candidate's own assessment, it is possible to additionally store the calculation results of each index value based on the other-assessment as reference values, and store the reference values ​​as additional information (gap function). When the reference values ​​are stored as additional information, in the subsequent second step, the values ​​of each index value are applied to each term in the calculation formula to be used, thereby calculating the reference enrollment index based on the other-assessment (criminal school / school dropout index), which is then linked to and stored as the enrollment index based on the candidate's own assessment (criminal school / school dropout index).

[0082] Index values ​​based on not only the student's own assessment but also assessments by others are stored as reference values, and not only the enrollment index (withdrawal index) calculated based on the student's own assessment but also the enrollment index (withdrawal index) calculated by a third party are stored. In the next step, the enrollment index (withdrawal index) based on the student's own assessment is displayed, and the reference enrollment index (withdrawal index) is displayed as a reference gap function, making it possible to compare the enrollment index (withdrawal index) values ​​calculated by different evaluators.

[0083] (Type of indicator) The results of the enrollment index (withdrawal index) used in this system not only show the tendency of each subject to leave their affiliated institution in the future (withdrawal from school, cram school, company, dropping out), but can also be displayed as an organizational index for each subject's attributes (school, cram school, affiliated organization, as well as gender, nationality, region, family structure, etc.). In other words, the affiliated organizations of each member can be defined as an affiliated group replaced with the member's attribute index. This makes it possible to conceptualize the classification of affiliated institutions as an organizational parameter index. Furthermore, by making continuous approaches to members from the affiliated organization (such as lifestyle guidance, supplementary classes, individual interviews, tests, lectures, and appreciation events), changes in the trend of the enrollment index due to the approaches can be verified on the attribute distribution screens shown in Figures 2 and 3. This allows the relationship between the content of the approaches and changes in the enrollment index to be quantified on the display screen, for example, the direction and amount of shift in the plot of the organization's trend, and can be intuitively grasped through visualization.

[0084] The present invention can be used as a system for detecting people who have left or are at risk of leaving various institutions, including those who are likely to leave in the future (withdrawing from school, cram school, company, dropping out), or who are at risk of deteriorating friendships, and can also be used as a program for predicting future trends targeting people, or an application that includes this.

[0085] Furthermore, by linking this with actual exit trends several months or years later, it is possible to feed this back into the calculation formula. The process of setting exit trends can set information such as the time of exit (withdrawal from school, cram school, company, or mid-career), the time of deterioration of friendships, the time of leaving work after employment, and the type of exit. This negative information has a relatively strong correlation with index values ​​for IQ, EQ, and GRIT, and the results are relatively clear, making it suitable for the system for detecting exit trends of the present invention, which predicts and indicates future risk factors.

[0086] In addition, regardless of the above-described embodiments, the present invention allows various modifications, combinations of configurations, rearrangements of the order, and substitutions with known configurations within the scope of the spirit of the present invention.

Claims

1. An exit prediction system that predicts and displays the future exit tendency of multiple members who are enrolled in an institution and whose performance is measured, the system comprising: an approach providing step of providing a motivational approach including guidance, dialogue, or learning strategies to each target member of the affiliated institution multiple times during a predetermined period to motivate them to improve their grades; a response step of acquiring responses to a multiple-choice questionnaire consisting of a list of multiple questions from each of the target members; a satisfaction index calculation step of calculating a satisfaction index, which is an index regarding the satisfaction of each target member with the institution to which the member belongs, based on answers to a specific group of questions including questions regarding the satisfaction of the institution itself, the instructor in charge at the institution, other members at the institution, or the member's own grades, among the answers obtained by the answering step; a fuel index calculation step of calculating a fuel index, which is an index value of the motivational approach given to each of the target members by the approach giving step; The fuel index is a first coordinate axis, and the satisfaction index is a second coordinate axis intersecting the first coordinate axis, a coordinate display step of displaying coordinate symbols consisting of the fuel index and the satisfaction index calculated for each member on a two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; The two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of high / low fuel index classification and high / low satisfaction index classification, a classification step of classifying the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map into which of the plurality of classification areas the coordinate symbols belong; Equipped with The list of questions in the answering step includes at least a group of questions regarding each index of IQ and EQ, a group of satisfaction questions regarding the evaluation or satisfaction of the student's performance by the institution itself, the instructor at the institution, other members at the institution, or the student's own performance, and a group of motivational questions regarding encouragement, advice, and guidance for the student, and listening to the student's opinions (dissatisfaction or worries), The satisfaction index calculation step The satisfaction index is calculated using an additive formula in which a predetermined coefficient is multiplied by each of additive terms consisting of at least two or more of the following: IQ and EQ, C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf; an index value of satisfaction with the affiliated institution; and an index value of member stress. The fuel index calculation step includes: An exit prediction system characterized by calculating a fuel index using an additive formula in which a predetermined coefficient is multiplied by each additive term consisting of two or more index value terms from among IQ and EQ, at least C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf, and an index value term for the motivational approach received by the member.

2. Instead of or in addition to the coordinate display step and the classification step, 2. The withdrawal prediction system of claim 1, further comprising a retention index calculation step for calculating the values ​​of standardized variables for each fuel index and satisfaction index based on the combination of fuel index and satisfaction index calculated for each member and the average score and standard deviation of the fuel index and satisfaction index of all members employed at the affiliated institution, using the formula "standardized variable = (raw score - average score) ÷ standard deviation."

3. The approach providing step, the response step, the satisfaction index calculation step, and the fuel index calculation step are performed for all members of the organization to which the user belongs, performing a coordinate overlap display step of overlapping and displaying coordinate symbols consisting of the calculated fuel index and satisfaction index for all members belonging to the organization on a common two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; The common two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate overlap display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of a high / low fuel index classification and a high / low satisfaction index classification, performing an overlap classification step of classifying, for all members belonging to the organization, which classification area among the plurality of classification areas the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map belong to; The withdrawal prediction system according to claim 1 , further comprising a chart display step of displaying a chart of the proportion of each classification area in the affiliated institution classified by the overlap classification step.

4. The affiliated institution is a learning institution that has instructors for each of multiple subjects, The members are students who belong to the learning institution and whose grades in multiple subjects are regularly assessed, The question list in the answering step includes at least: A set of IQ / EQ questions regarding each of the indicators of C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf. A satisfaction / motivation question set regarding the student's evaluation or satisfaction with their institution, their instructor, other members of their institution, or their own performance; It consists of a set of questions about the current stress that members themselves are experiencing, The fuel index calculation step includes: The fuel index is calculated using an additive formula in which each additive term consisting of at least two or more index value terms from among C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf, and an index value term for the motivational approach received by the member, is multiplied by a predetermined coefficient, The satisfaction index calculation step The exit prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that the satisfaction index is calculated using an additive formula in which additive terms consisting of at least two or more index values ​​from among C, A, E, N, O, GRIT, frequency, formality, and Gf, an index value of satisfaction with the affiliated institution, and an index value of member stress are multiplied by a predetermined coefficient.

5. A step of calculating the index values ​​of the five-dimensional coordinates of the Main Five-Factor Personality Test for each member by the exit prediction system of claim 1, and calculating the square root of the sum of the squares of the differences between each index to calculate the distance between each point; a classification step of classifying each member into a plurality of classification types including four preset classifications of "average," "exemplary," "modest," and "unrestrained" based on the smallest value of the distance between each point; and a step of displaying attribute ratios of classifications of all members belonging to the organization.

6. The answering step includes obtaining a questionnaire answer from a target member whose withdrawal tendency is predicted and displayed, and a questionnaire answer from a person involved with the target member; The exit prediction system described in any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that the satisfaction index calculation step further adds an additive term to the index value regarding each member's satisfaction with the affiliated institution based on the answers to a specific group of questions from the answers from the stakeholders obtained in the answering step.

7. The answering step includes obtaining a questionnaire answer from a target member whose withdrawal tendency is predicted and displayed, and a questionnaire answer from a person involved with the target member; The satisfaction index calculation step A satisfaction index value regarding the satisfaction of each member with the organization to which they belong is calculated based on the answers to a specific group of questions from the answers from the target members obtained in the answering step. and calculating a stakeholder satisfaction index relating to the satisfaction of each member with the organization to which the member belongs based on the answers to a specific group of questions from the answers from the stakeholders of the target member obtained in the answering step, The coordinate display step includes: The coordinate symbols consisting of the fuel index and satisfaction index value calculated for each member are displayed on a two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis, and A related party coordinate symbol consisting of the fuel index and the related party satisfaction index calculated for each member is displayed superimposed on the two-dimensional map consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis, and The classification step includes: The two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of high / low fuel index classification and high / low satisfaction index classification, Classifying the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map into which of the plurality of classification areas they belong; The two-dimensional map obtained by the coordinate display step is divided into a plurality of classification regions each consisting of a combination of a high / low classification of the fuel index and a high / low classification of the stakeholder satisfaction index, Classifying the coordinate symbols of each member on the two-dimensional map to which of the plurality of classification areas they belong; 2. The exit prediction system according to claim 1, wherein these classifications are displayed side by side.

8. The enrollment index calculation step includes: Based on the combination of fuel index and satisfaction index calculated for each member and the average score and standard deviation of the fuel index and satisfaction index of all members enrolled in the organization, the value of the standardized variable for each fuel index and satisfaction index is calculated using the formula "standardized variable = (raw score - average score) ÷ standard deviation"; 3. The withdrawal prediction system according to claim 2, wherein the values ​​of the standardized variables for the fuel index and the stakeholder satisfaction index are calculated as comparison values ​​using the formula "standardized variable = (raw score - average score) ÷ standard deviation" based on the combination of the fuel index and the stakeholder satisfaction index calculated for each member and the average score and standard deviation of the fuel index and the stakeholder satisfaction index for all members employed at the organization.

9. The approach providing step, the response step, the satisfaction index calculation step, and the fuel index calculation step are performed for all members of the organization, The answering step, the satisfaction index calculation step, and the fuel index calculation step are respectively performed for specific related parties of all members belonging to the organization; a coordinate overlap display step of displaying, for all members belonging to the organization, coordinate symbols consisting of the calculated fuel index and satisfaction index and coordinate symbols consisting of the calculated fuel index and stakeholder satisfaction index side by side on separate two-dimensional maps consisting of a first coordinate axis and a second coordinate axis; The exit prediction system according to claim 3 , further comprising a chart display step of displaying in parallel the proportions of each classification area at the affiliated institution, which are classified in parallel by the overlap classification step, in separate chart formats.

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