Prediction method and prediction program, and environmental adjustment method and environmental adjustment program

Abstract

To accurately predict a cultivation term of fruit vegetables.SOLUTION: In a prediction method for predicting a cultivation term of fruit vegetables from blooming until enabling harvesting of fruits, a computer executes processing of: acquiring or estimating a fruit temperature being a temperature of fruit surfaces of the fruit vegetables after blooming; calculating a term of each of a plurality of stages generated by dividing a term from blooming to harvesting on the basis of the fruit temperature; and predicting the cultivation term by adding the calculated term of each of the plurality of stages. In the calculation processing, a contribution rate of the fruit temperature to a calculation result of the term of each of the plurality of stages is determined for each stage.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 8

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a prediction method and a prediction program, and an environment adjustment method and an environment adjustment program. [Background technology]

[0002] Demand for fruit and vegetables changes depending on the season. For example, demand for strawberries is high around Christmas and New Year's, so if producers can harvest and ship them at these times, they can sell them at a higher price and increase their profits. For this reason, producers have traditionally predicted the harvest season based on years of experience and intuition, and made various adjustments to time the fruit harvest season to coincide with periods of high demand.

[0003] In response to this, technologies have recently emerged that predict information about growth, such as harvest time, from accumulated temperature and the like (see, for example, Patent Documents 1 to 6, etc.). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 5-336843 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 7-11125 [Patent Document 3] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2013-191107 [Patent Document 4] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2015-176339 [Patent Document 5] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2019-176766 [Patent Document 6] International Publication No. 2020 / 26358 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, with conventional methods (Patent Documents 1 to 6, etc.), it may not be possible to accurately predict the period from flowering to harvest (cultivation period) or the harvest time.

[0006] The present invention aims to provide a prediction method and a prediction program that can accurately predict the cultivation period of fruit vegetables. Another object of the present invention is to provide an environmental adjustment method and an environmental adjustment program that can appropriately adjust the cultivation environment of fruit vegetables. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The prediction method of the present invention is a prediction method for predicting the cultivation period from flowering of fruit vegetables until the fruit becomes ready for harvest, and includes acquiring or estimating the fruit temperature, which is the temperature on the surface of the fruit vegetables after the flowering date, and calculating the temperature at each of a plurality of stages into which the period from flowering to harvesting is divided. A temperature-related index value for each day of each stage is calculated based on the fruit temperature in the above step, and the temperature-related index value for each day of each stage is calculated until the integrated value of the temperature-related index value for each day of each stage reaches a threshold value set for each stage. The period The duration of each of the multiple stages is and calculating a cultivation period by adding up the periods of the plurality of stages calculated, and predicting the cultivation period. the temperature-related index value The contribution of the fruit temperature is The aforementioned This is a prediction method that is determined for each stage. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] The prediction method and prediction program of the present invention have the effect of being able to accurately predict the cultivation period of fruit vegetables, and the environmental adjustment method and environmental adjustment program of the present invention have the effect of being able to appropriately adjust the cultivation environment of fruit vegetables. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a processing system according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2(a) is a diagram showing the hardware configuration of a processing server and a mediation server, and FIG. 2(b) is a diagram showing the hardware configuration of a user terminal. [Figure 3]FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of an input / output screen. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of a processing server. [Figure 5] 10 is a flowchart showing processing by a processing server. [Figure 6] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining stages into which the period from flowering to harvest is divided, the daily average fruit temperature at each stage, and the threshold value at each stage. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram schematically illustrating the relationship between the stage and temperature sensitivity. [Figure 8] 8(a) to 8(e) are diagrams for explaining the process of predicting the harvest date according to the first specific example. [Figure 9] 9(a) to 9(f) are diagrams (part 1) for explaining the process for matching the predicted harvest date with the target harvest date in the specific example 1. FIG. [Figure 10] 10(a) to 10(f) are diagrams (part 2) for explaining the process for matching the predicted harvest date with the target harvest date in the specific example 1. FIG. [Figure 11] 11(a) to 11(e) are diagrams for explaining the process of predicting the harvest date according to the second specific example. [Figure 12] 12(a) to 12(c) are diagrams for explaining the process for matching the predicted harvest date with the target harvest date in the second specific example. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0010] An embodiment of the prediction system will be described in detail below with reference to Figures 1 to 12(c). Figure 1 shows a schematic configuration of a prediction system 100 according to one embodiment. The prediction system 100 of this embodiment is a system used by producers of fruit and vegetables (strawberries in this embodiment), which performs predictions regarding the harvest time of strawberries and provides the producers with information on the predicted harvest time and information for adjusting the harvest time.

[0011] 1, the prediction system 100 comprises a processing server 10, an intermediary server 12, and a user terminal 70. The processing server 10, the intermediary server 12, and the user terminal 70 are connected via a network 80 such as the Internet, allowing information to be exchanged between predetermined devices (in this embodiment, between the processing server 10 and the intermediary server 12, and between the intermediary server 12 and the user terminal 70).

[0012] The processing server 10 acquires information entered at the user terminal 70 via the intermediary server 12 and executes a process for predicting the strawberry harvest date based on the acquired information. The processing server 10 also identifies how to adjust the cultivation environment so that the predicted harvest date coincides with the target harvest date. Furthermore, the processing server 10 outputs, via the intermediary server 12, to the user terminal 70, information on the predicted strawberry harvest date and information on how to adjust the cultivation environment to match the predicted harvest date to the target harvest date.

[0013] FIG. 2(a) schematically illustrates the hardware configuration of the processing server 10. As illustrated in FIG. 2(a), the processing server 10 includes a central processing unit (CPU) 90, a read-only memory (ROM) 92, a random access memory (RAM) 94, storage (e.g., a solid-state drive (SSD) or a hard disk drive (HDD)) 96, a network interface 97, and a portable storage medium drive 99. These components of the processing server 10 are connected to a bus 98. In the processing server 10, the CPU 90 executes a program stored in the ROM 92 or the HDD 96, or a program read by the portable storage medium drive 99 from the portable storage medium 91, thereby realizing the functions of the components illustrated in FIG. 4. The functions of the components illustrated in FIG. 4 may be implemented by an integrated circuit such as an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) or a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). The functions of the components illustrated in FIG. 4 will be described in detail below.

[0014] Returning to Fig. 1, the intermediary server 12 acquires information input at the user terminal 70 (information necessary for prediction processing in the processing server 10) and transmits it to the processing server 10. The intermediary server 12 also acquires information output from the processing server 10 and transmits it to the user terminal 70. The intermediary server 12 has the same hardware configuration as the processing server 10 (see Fig. 2(a)).

[0015] The user terminal 70 is a terminal such as a smartphone or PC (Personal Computer) used by a strawberry producer. The producer inputs necessary information into the user terminal 70. The user terminal 70 transmits the input information to the intermediary server 12. The user terminal 70 also acquires and displays information output from the processing server 10 via the intermediary server 12.

[0016] Here, the user terminal 70 has, as an example, a hardware configuration as shown in Fig. 2(b). As shown in Fig. 2(b), the user terminal 70 includes a CPU 190, a ROM 192, a RAM 194, a storage 196, a network interface 197, a display unit 193, an input unit 195, and a portable storage medium drive 199 capable of reading data stored in a portable storage medium 191. The display unit 193 includes a liquid crystal display or the like, and the input unit 195 includes a touch panel, a keyboard, a mouse, and the like. These components of the user terminal 70 are connected to a bus 198.

[0017] FIG. 3 shows an example of an input / output screen displayed on the display unit 193 of the user terminal 70. As shown in FIG. 3, the input / output screen is divided into areas A to D. Area A includes input fields for the producer to input the type and variety of fruit and vegetable, and information about the field (such as name and location), as well as input fields for inputting the start and end times of heating and the opening and closing times of side windows. Area B includes input fields for the producer to input information about the flowering date of seedlings actually planted in the field and the number of flowers on that flowering date. Area B also includes input fields for the producer to input information indicating when the producer wants to harvest the flowers (fruit) that bloomed on each flowering date (target harvest date). Area C displays the results predicted by the processing server 10 (how many strawberries can be harvested on what date in what month). Area D displays information output from the processing server 10, indicating how the cultivation environment should be changed so that the flowers (fruit) that bloomed on each flowering date can be harvested on the target harvest date.

[0018] (Functions of the processing server 10) Fig. 4 shows a functional block diagram of the processing server 10. In the processing server 10, the CPU 90 executes a program to realize each function shown in Fig. 4. Specifically, the processing server 10 has an information receiving unit 30, an environmental information acquiring unit 32, a stage period calculating unit 34, a cultivation period predicting unit 36, an adjusting unit 38, and an output unit 40.

[0019] 4 also illustrates an environmental information DB 50 and a parameter table 52 stored in the storage 196 of the processing server 10. The environmental information DB 50 stores past environmental information (information on temperature and solar radiation) of the field. The environmental information DB 50 also stores predicted values ​​of future environmental information (mesh agricultural weather data) and average values ​​of past environmental information (used as predicted values ​​of future environmental information) acquired from an external server (for example, a server managed by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization). The environmental information DB 50 may be stored in an external database server.

[0020] The parameter table 52 is a table that stores parameters used by the stage period calculation section 34. Details of the parameters stored in the parameter table 52 will be described later.

[0021] The information receiving unit 30 acquires from the intermediary server 12 the information that the producer inputs into range A and range B of the input / output screen in Figure 3 by operating the user terminal 70, and passes the acquired information to the environmental information acquisition unit 32, the stage period calculation unit 34, the cultivation period prediction unit 36, and the adjustment unit 38.

[0022] The environmental information acquisition unit 32 acquires, from the environmental information DB 50, temperature information (past data, forecast data, average temperature data, etc.) and solar radiation information (past data, forecast data, average solar radiation data, etc.) for the field entered in range A. Specifically, the environmental information acquisition unit 32 acquires, from the environmental information DB 50, information on temperature and solar radiation from the earliest of one or more flowering dates entered by the producer. The environmental information acquisition unit 32 also corrects the temperature information (forecast data and average temperature data) acquired from the environmental information DB 50 based on information on heating and side windows entered by the producer, etc. Note that, if the producer has set information on LED lighting or shading information, the environmental information acquisition unit 32 may correct the solar radiation information based on this information.

[0023] The stage duration calculation unit 34 calculates the fruit temperature (temperature on the fruit surface) for each day from information on the air temperature and solar radiation amount for each day. Furthermore, based on the calculated fruit temperature for each day, the stage duration calculation unit 34 calculates the number of days required for each of the multiple stages into which the strawberry cultivation period from flowering to harvest is divided (the duration of each of the multiple stages). Note that the method of calculating the fruit temperature and the duration of each stage by the stage duration calculation unit 34 will be described later.

[0024] The cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​predicts the cultivation period of the flowers (fruits) that bloomed on each flowering day by adding up the periods of each stage calculated by the stage period calculation unit 34 for each flowering day. The cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​also predicts the harvest date (ripening date) of the fruit corresponding to each flowering day based on each flowering day and the cultivation period of the flowers (fruits) that bloomed on each flowering day.

[0025] The adjustment unit 38 determines whether the harvest date predicted by the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​(predicted harvest date) matches the target harvest date input by the producer, and if they do not match, calculates a fruit temperature that will make the predicted harvest date match the target harvest date. The adjustment unit 38 cooperates with the stage period calculation unit 34 and the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​to calculate a fruit temperature that will make the predicted harvest date match the target harvest date.

[0026] Output unit 40 outputs the predicted harvest date calculated by cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​and information necessary to match the predicted harvest date calculated by adjustment unit 38 with the target harvest date to user terminal 70 via intermediary server 12. As a result, the information output from output unit 40 is displayed in ranges C and D of the input / output screen on user terminal 70. Note that the information necessary to match the predicted harvest date with the target harvest date may be fruit temperature information that matches the predicted harvest date calculated by adjustment unit 38 with the target harvest date, or may be information on controlling the air temperature and solar radiation amount necessary to achieve that fruit temperature.

[0027] (Regarding the processing of the processing server 10) Next, the processing of the processing server 10 will be described in detail with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 5 and other drawings as appropriate.

[0028] 5 starts, first, in step S10, information receiving unit 30 waits until information is input from intermediary server 12. That is, information receiving unit 30 waits until information input to the input / output screen of Fig. 3 on user terminal 70 is transmitted via intermediary server 12. When information is input from intermediary server 12, information receiving unit 30 proceeds to step S12.

[0029] When the process proceeds to step S12, the information receiving unit 30 acquires the information input from the intermediary server 12. The information receiving unit 30 passes the acquired information to the environmental information acquiring unit 32, the stage period calculating unit 34, the cultivation period predicting unit 36, and the adjusting unit 38.

[0030] Next, in step S14, the environmental information acquisition unit 32 acquires necessary environmental information and estimates the cultivation environment. Specifically, the environmental information acquisition unit 32 acquires information on temperature and solar radiation (actual measurements and predicted values) from the flowering date onwards, corrects the temperature information to suit the field conditions based on information on heating and side windows entered by the producer, and estimates the temperature inside the facility (°C). Furthermore, if the producer has set information on LED lighting and shading, the solar radiation information is corrected based on this information to estimate the solar radiation inside the facility (MJ).

[0031] Next, in step S16, the stage period calculation section 34 acquires parameters used in the processes of steps S18 and S20, which will be described later, from the parameter table 52. Details of the parameters will be described later.

[0032] Next, in step S18, the stage period calculation unit 34 calculates the fruit temperature for each day. Specifically, the stage period calculation unit 34 calculates the fruit temperature for each day using the following formula (1). Fruit temperature (℃) = temperature inside the facility × (a·ln solar radiation inside the facility + b) ... (1)

[0033] Here, a and b are parameters (coefficients) that are predetermined for each field (house). a and b are defined for each field in the parameter table 52.

[0034] Next, in step S20, the stage duration calculation unit 34 calculates the duration of each stage (the number of days required for each stage) for each flowering date.

[0035] In this embodiment, as shown in Fig. 6, the period from the flowering date to the harvest date is divided into multiple periods, and each period is called a stage (development stage). Each stage is denoted as s1, s2, ... sn, and the daily average fruit temperatures of each stage s1, s2, ... sn are denoted as t1, t2, ... tn. Furthermore, the thresholds of each stage s1, s2, ... sn are denoted as CTs1, CTs2, ... CTsn. The values ​​n, t1 to tn, and CTs1 to CTsn are determined in advance for each variety and stored in the parameter table 52.

[0036] The stage period calculation unit 34 calculates the period Tk of each stage sk from the following equation (2). Tk = CTsk / (ck tk + dk) … (2)

[0037] In the above equation (2), ck and dk are parameters (coefficients) determined for each variety and stored in the parameter table 52. Figure 7 is a graph that schematically illustrates the relationship between the stage and the temperature sensitivity of strawberries during maturation. As shown in Figure 7, in the case of strawberries, the temperature sensitivity increases as the stage progresses. Therefore, to express this temperature sensitivity, the closer the stage is to the harvest date, the larger the value of the parameter ck is set and the smaller the value of the parameter dk is set. In other words, the closer the stage is to the harvest date, the more susceptible the value of the denominator (ck·tk+dk) in the above equation (2) is to changes in the value of the temperature tk. Note that the denominator (ck·tk+dk) is the temperature-related index value for one day, and the above equation (2) indicates that the period (number of days) until the integrated value of the temperature-related index value for one day reaches the threshold value CTsk is the period Tk of stage sk.

[0038] Next, in step S22, the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​predicts the cultivation period and harvest date for each flowering date. The cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​adds up the periods Tk of each stage sk obtained for each flowering date as shown in the following equation (3) to predict the cultivation period (number of days to full ripening). Cultivation period=T1+T2+…+Tn =CTs1 / (c1·t1+d1)+CTs2 / (c2·t2+d2)+… …+CTsn / (cn·tn+dn) …(3)

[0039] Furthermore, the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​predicts the harvest date for each flowering date using the following formula (4). Harvest date = flowering date + cultivation period ... (4)

[0040] Next, in step S24, the adjustment unit 38 compares the harvest date predicted by the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​(predicted harvest date) with the target harvest date.

[0041] Next, in step S26, the adjustment unit 38 determines whether the predicted harvest date and the target harvest date match. If the determination in step S26 is negative, the process proceeds to step S28, where the adjustment unit 38 adjusts the environmental information used for the prediction. For example, if the predicted harvest date is later than the target harvest date, the daily fruit temperature calculated in step S18 is increased by a predetermined temperature (e.g., 0.5°C) to accelerate growth. On the other hand, if the predicted harvest date is earlier than the target harvest date, the daily fruit temperature calculated in step S18 is decreased by a predetermined temperature (e.g., 0.5°C) to slow growth. Thereafter, the process returns to step S20, where the stage period calculation unit 34 and the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​execute the processes of steps S20 and S22 in the same manner as described above. Then, the process proceeds to step S24, where the adjustment unit 38 again compares the predicted harvest date with the target harvest date. As a result, if the predicted harvest date does not match the target harvest date (S26: No), the adjustment unit 38 again adjusts the environmental information used for prediction in step S28 (raise or lower the fruit temperature by a predetermined temperature).

[0042] Thereafter, if the determination in step S26 is affirmative as a result of the processing in steps S20 to S28, the process proceeds to step S30, where the output unit 40 outputs the harvest date (predicted harvest date) initially predicted by the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​and the cultivation environment adjustment information obtained as a result of step S28 to the user terminal 70 via the intermediary server 12. The cultivation environment adjustment information may be information indicating that the fruit temperature should be increased / decreased by X°C, or information on how to adjust the temperature inside the facility or the amount of solar radiation inside the facility in order to increase / decrease the fruit temperature by X°C. The latter information can be derived from the former information and the above formula (1). This completes the entire processing of FIG. 5.

[0043] The producer can adjust the cultivation environment of the field based on the cultivation environment adjustment information output to the user terminal 70. If the user terminal 70 is connected to an environmental control device installed in the field, the user terminal 70 may automatically control the environmental control device based on the cultivation environment adjustment information. This saves the producer the trouble of adjusting the device.

[0044] A specific example of the processing by the processing server 10 will be described in detail below with reference to FIGS. 8(a) to 12(c).

[0045] (Example 1) First, specific example 1 will be described with reference to Figures 8(a) to 10(f). Figure 8(a) shows a state in which a producer has input into range B on the input / output screen (Figure 3) that 300 fruits bloomed on the flowering date of November 9, 500 fruits bloomed on the flowering date of November 10, and 200 fruits bloomed on the flowering date of November 11, and has further input December 19, 20, and 21 as the target harvest dates for the fruits corresponding to each flowering date.

[0046] The stage duration calculation unit 34 calculates the fruit temperature for each day based on the temperature and solar radiation information acquired by the environmental information acquisition unit 32, resulting in the fruit temperature values ​​shown in FIG. 8(b). In this specific example 1, the strawberry cultivation period is divided into four stages s1 to s4, and the daily average fruit temperatures t1 to t4 for each stage s1 to s4 are calculated as shown in FIG. 8(c). The durations of stages s1 to s4 must be set when calculating the daily average fruit temperatures t1 to t4 in FIG. 8(c). Initially, however, a predetermined approximate duration is used for the durations of stages s1 to s4 used to calculate the daily average fruit temperatures t1 to t4. The stage duration calculation unit 34 calculates the durations of each stage using the set daily average fruit temperatures, then recalculates the daily average fruit temperatures t1 to t4 for each stage, and then recalculates the durations of each stage using the recalculated daily average fruit temperatures t1 to t4. This process can be repeated.

[0047] Then, the stage period calculation unit 34 calculates the periods T1 to T4 of each stage based on the above formula (2). For example, suppose that when the periods T1 to T4 of each stage are calculated for a fruit whose flowering date is November 10, the results are as shown in Figure 8(d). In this specific example 1, the parameters CTs1 to CTs4 in the above formula (2) are 150, c1, c2, c3, and c4 are 0.15, 0.6, 0.9, and 1.0, and d1, d2, d3, and d4 are 15, 5, 0, and 0, respectively.

[0048] Then, the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​adds up the periods T1 to T4 of each stage and predicts the cultivation period. As a result, as shown in Figure 8(e), the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​predicts that the cultivation period will be 45 days. In this case, the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​predicts that the harvest date for the flowers (fruits) that bloomed on November 10 will be December 25, 45 days after the blooming date.

[0049] The same prediction is made for the harvest dates of fruits whose flowering dates are November 9th and 11th. As a result, the harvest dates of fruits whose flowering dates are November 9th and 11th are predicted to be December 24th and 26th.

[0050] Here, as shown in FIG. 8(a), the target harvest date for the flowers (fruit) that bloomed on November 10 is December 20, which does not match the predicted harvest date (December 25). In this case, in order to match the predicted harvest date with the target harvest date, the strawberries must grow faster. Therefore, the adjustment unit 38, for example, raises the fruit temperature used for prediction by a predetermined temperature (here, 0.5°C) and causes the stage duration calculation unit 34 and the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​to predict the harvest date again. That is, since the daily average fruit temperature for each stage is as shown in FIG. 9(a), when the duration of each stage is calculated using this daily average fruit temperature, the result is as shown in FIG. 9(b), and the harvest date is predicted to be December 23, as shown in FIG. 9(c).

[0051] However, even if the fruit temperature is raised by 0.5°C as described above, the predicted harvest date and the target harvest date do not match, so the adjustment unit 38 further raises the fruit temperature used for prediction by 0.5°C (see Figure 9(d)), and causes the stage period calculation unit 34 and the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​to predict the harvest date again (see Figures 9(e) and 9(f)). As a result, the harvest date is predicted to be December 23rd, as shown in Figure 9(f).

[0052] However, even if the fruit temperature is raised by 1.0°C as described above, the predicted harvest date and the target harvest date do not match, so the adjustment unit 38 further raises the fruit temperature used for prediction by 0.5°C (see Figure 10(a)), and causes the stage period calculation unit 34 and the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​to predict the harvest date again (see Figures 10(b) and 10(c)). As a result, the harvest date is predicted to be December 22nd, as shown in Figure 10(c).

[0053] However, even if the fruit temperature is raised by 1.5°C as described above, the predicted harvest date and the target harvest date do not match, so the adjustment unit 38 further raises the fruit temperature used for prediction by 0.5°C (see Figure 10(d)), and causes the stage period calculation unit 34 and the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​to predict the harvest date again (see Figures 10(e) and 10(f)). As a result, the harvest date is predicted to be December 20th, as shown in Figure 10(f).

[0054] The above processing provides information that the predicted harvest date can be matched to the target harvest date if the fruit temperature is raised by an average of 2°C. Therefore, the output unit 40 can output to the user terminal 70 information such as the fact that, without environmental control, the fruit can be harvested on the originally predicted harvest date (see FIG. 8(e)), and that in order to harvest on the target harvest date, the fruit temperature must be raised by an average of 2°C (or that, in order to raise the fruit temperature, the field temperature must be raised or the amount of solar radiation or LED lighting must be controlled).

[0055] (Example 2) Next, specific example 2 will be described with reference to FIGS. 11(a) to 12(c).

[0056] Figure 11(a) shows that the producer has entered into range B on the input / output screen (Figure 3) that 300 fruits bloomed on the flowering date of October 31st, 500 fruits bloomed on the flowering date of November 1st, and 200 fruits bloomed on the flowering date of November 2nd, and has also entered December 19th, 20th, and 21st as the target harvest dates for the fruits corresponding to each flowering date.

[0057] Then, it is assumed that the stage period calculation unit 34 calculates the fruit temperature for each day from the information on the air temperature and solar radiation amount acquired by the environmental information acquisition unit 32, and obtains the fruit temperature values ​​shown in Fig. 11(b). In addition, in this specific example 2, it is assumed that the strawberry cultivation period is divided into four stages s1 to s4, and the daily average fruit temperatures t1 to t4 for each stage s1 to s4 are obtained as shown in Fig. 11(c).

[0058] In this case, the stage period calculation unit 34 calculates the periods T1 to T4 of each stage based on the above formula (2). For example, suppose that when the periods T1 to T4 of each stage are calculated for a fruit whose flowering date is November 1st, the results are as shown in Figure 11(d). Note that the parameters (coefficients) CTs1 to CTs4, c1 to c4, and d1 to d4 in the above formula (2) of this specific example 2 are the same as those in the above specific example 1.

[0059] Then, the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​adds up the periods T1 to T4 of each stage to predict the cultivation period. As a result, it is assumed that the cultivation period is predicted to be 44 days, as shown in Figure 11(e). In this case, the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​predicts that the harvest date for the flowers (fruits) that bloomed on November 1st will be December 15th, 44 days after the blooming date.

[0060] The same prediction is made for the harvest dates of fruits whose flowering dates are November 9th and 11th. As a result, the harvest dates of fruits whose flowering dates are November 9th and 11th are predicted to be December 14th and 16th.

[0061] Here, as shown in FIG. 11(a), the target harvest date for the flowers (fruit) that bloomed on November 1st is December 20th, which does not match the predicted harvest date. In this case, in order to match the predicted harvest date (December 15th) with the target harvest date (December 20th), it is necessary to slow the growth of the strawberries. Therefore, the adjustment unit 38 repeats the process of lowering the fruit temperature used for prediction by a predetermined temperature (here, 0.5°C) until the predicted harvest date and the target harvest date match. As a result, as shown in FIG. 12(a), if the fruit temperature is lowered by an average of 2.0°C, the duration of each stage can be calculated as shown in FIG. 12(b), and as a result, information is obtained that the harvest date can be matched with the target harvest date (December 20th), as shown in FIG. 12(c).

[0062] Therefore, the output unit 40 can output to the user terminal 70 information such as that if environmental control is not performed, the fruit will be harvested on the predicted harvest date (see Figure 11(e)), and that in order to be able to harvest on the target harvest date, the fruit temperature must be lowered by 2.0°C (i.e., in order to lower the fruit temperature by 2.0°C, the air temperature inside the facility must be lowered or the amount of solar radiation inside the facility must be reduced).

[0063] As described above in detail, according to this embodiment, the stage duration calculation unit 34 of the processing server 10 calculates the fruit temperature after the strawberry flowering date and calculates the periods T1 to T4 for each of the multiple stages into which the period from flowering to harvest is divided, based on the fruit temperature. Furthermore, the cultivation period prediction unit 36 ​​predicts the cultivation period by adding up the periods T1 to T4 for each stage calculated by the stage duration calculation unit 34. Furthermore, in the formula (formula (2)) used by the stage duration calculation unit 34 to calculate the periods T1 to T4 for each stage, the contribution of the fruit temperature to the calculation result of the period for each stage is determined for each stage. This allows the temperature sensitivity of each stage to be taken into account, making it possible to accurately calculate the periods T1 to T4 for each stage. Furthermore, since the cultivation period and harvest date are predicted by adding up the accurately calculated periods T1 to T4 for each stage, the cultivation period and harvest date can be accurately predicted.

[0064] Furthermore, according to this embodiment, in equation (2), the temperature-related index value (ck·tk+dk) for each day of each stage is calculated, and the period until the integrated value of the temperature-related index values ​​for each day reaches the threshold value (CTsk) is defined as the period of each stage. The contribution of fruit temperature to the temperature-related index value is determined for each stage. Therefore, the temperature-related index value can be calculated taking into account the temperature sensitivity of each stage, and the periods T1 to T4 of each stage can be accurately calculated by using the integrated value of the temperature-related index value.

[0065] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the temperature sensitivity (parameters ck and dk in equation (2)) is determined for each item and variety, so the duration of each stage, cultivation period, and harvest date can be predicted with high accuracy regardless of the item or variety.

[0066] In this embodiment, the fruit temperature is estimated based on the temperature of the environment in which the fruit is grown and the amount of solar radiation (see equation (1) above). Estimating the fruit temperature in this manner eliminates the need to actually measure the fruit temperature. Furthermore, by using the fruit temperature, the duration of each stage, the cultivation period, and the harvest date can be predicted more accurately than when simply using the temperature inside the facility.

[0067] In addition, in this embodiment, because the flowering date and flowering number are input by the producer, it is also possible to predict the number of fruits that can be harvested on the predicted harvest date. This allows for early and highly accurate prediction of the daily harvest volume, so tourist strawberry farms can set the number of visitor reservations they accept to an appropriate value early on. Furthermore, general strawberry producers can appropriately adjust the employment of part-time employees.

[0068] Furthermore, the processing server 10 of this embodiment outputs to the user terminal 70 adjustment information for fruit temperature (i.e., air temperature and solar radiation) to match the information on the predicted harvest date (predicted harvest date) as described above with the target harvest date. This allows producers who view the adjustment information to appropriately adjust the cultivation environment based on the adjustment information. Furthermore, when the user terminal 70 controls equipment that adjusts the cultivation environment, it can automatically appropriately adjust the cultivation environment. By adjusting the cultivation environment appropriately in this way, producers can schedule the harvest date to coincide with a period of high demand, allowing them to trade strawberries at a higher price and increase their profits.

[0069] In the above embodiment, the case where the flowering date and the number of flowers in bloom are manually input by the producer into the input / output screen has been described, but this is not limited to this. For example, images taken using a camera installed in the field or a camera attached to a mobile device that moves around the field can be analyzed, and the flowering date and the number of flowers in bloom can be automatically detected based on the analysis results. This eliminates the need for the producer to walk around the field to determine the flowering date and the number of flowers in bloom and then manually input them.

[0070] In the above embodiment, the producer inputs the target harvest date in association with the flowering date and flowering number in range B of the input / output screen. However, this is not limited to this. For example, the target harvest date and target harvest number may be input regardless of the flowering date. In this case, the processing server 10 outputs to the user terminal 70 information on the cultivation environment adjustments that minimize the adjustment range of fruit temperature and enable the target number of fruits to be harvested on the target harvest date.

[0071] In the above embodiment, the prediction system 100 has been described as having the intermediary server 12, but the present invention is not limited to this. That is, the intermediary server 12 may be omitted, and the processing server 10 and the user terminal 70 may directly exchange information.

[0072] In the above embodiment, the processing server 10 predicts the cultivation period and harvest date of strawberries, but the present invention is not limited to this and may predict the cultivation period and harvest date of other fruit and vegetables.

[0073] The formulas given in the above embodiment are merely examples. The formula for calculating the fruit temperature may be a formula other than the above formula (1), and the formula for calculating the period Tk of each stage may be a formula other than the above formula (2) as long as it takes into account the temperature sensitivity of each stage.

[0074] The above processing functions can be realized by a computer. In this case, a program is provided that describes the processing contents of the functions that the processing device should have. By executing the program on a computer, the above processing functions are realized on the computer. The program that describes the processing contents can be recorded on a computer-readable storage medium (excluding carrier waves).

[0075] When distributing a program, it is sold in the form of a portable storage medium on which the program is recorded, such as a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc) or a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory).The program can also be stored in the storage device of a server computer and transferred from the server computer to other computers via a network.

[0076] A computer that executes a program stores, for example, a program recorded on a portable storage medium or a program transferred from a server computer in its own storage device. The computer then reads the program from its own storage device and executes processing in accordance with the program. Note that the computer can also read the program directly from a portable storage medium and execute processing in accordance with that program. The computer can also execute processing in accordance with the program received each time a program is transferred from the server computer.

[0077] The above-described embodiment is a preferred example of the present invention, but the present invention is not limited to this and can be modified in various ways without departing from the spirit of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0078] 10 Processing Server 12 Intermediary Server 30 Information Reception Department 32 Environmental Information Acquisition Department 34 Stage Period Calculation Unit 36 Cultivation Period Prediction Department 38 Adjustment part 40 Output section 50 Environmental information DB 52 Parameter Table 70 User terminal 90 CPU (computer) 100 Prediction System

Claims

1. A method for predicting a cultivation period from flowering to when fruit can be harvested in fruit vegetables, comprising: Acquire or estimate the fruit temperature, which is the temperature of the fruit surface of the fruit vegetables after the flowering date; a temperature-related index value for each day of each stage based on the fruit temperature at each of a plurality of stages obtained by dividing the period from flowering to harvest, and a period until an integrated value of the temperature-related index value for each day of each stage reaches a threshold value set for each stage is calculated as a period of each of the plurality of stages; The computer executes a process of summing up the calculated periods of each of the plurality of stages to predict the cultivation period; A prediction method characterized in that, in the calculation process, the contribution of the fruit temperature to the temperature-related index value is determined for each stage.

2. When a first stage included in the plurality of stages is a stage before a second stage, The prediction method according to claim 1 , wherein the contribution of the fruit temperature to the temperature-related index value is greater in the second stage than in the first stage.

3. The prediction method according to claim 1 , wherein the contribution rate is determined for each type and variety of the fruit and vegetable.

4. 2. The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the fruit temperature is estimated based on the temperature of the environment in which the fruit is grown and the amount of solar radiation.

5. The computer executes a process of acquiring information on the number of flowers in bloom on a plurality of flowering dates, 2. The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the prediction process predicts the cultivation period corresponding to each of the plurality of flowering dates, and predicts the number of fruits to be harvested on each day based on the predicted cultivation period and information on the number of flowers.

6. A method for detecting or estimating a fruit temperature, which is the temperature of the surface of the fruit of a fruit vegetable after the flowering date of the fruit vegetable, a prediction process is executed to obtain a temperature-related index value for each day of a plurality of stages obtained by dividing a cultivation period from flowering to harvest based on the fruit temperature in each of the plurality of stages, calculate a period until an integrated value of the temperature-related index value for each day of the plurality of stages reaches a threshold value set for each stage as a period of each of the plurality of stages, and predict the cultivation period by summing up the calculated periods of each of the plurality of stages; If the result of the prediction process does not become a desired value, the fruit temperature is changed to another value and the prediction process is repeated. outputting information based on the value of the fruit temperature when the result of the prediction process reaches a desired value; The contribution of the fruit temperature to the temperature-related index value is determined for each stage. An environmental adjustment method comprising:

7. A prediction program for predicting the cultivation period from flowering to when the fruit can be harvested in fruit vegetables, Acquire or estimate the fruit temperature, which is the temperature of the fruit surface of the fruit vegetables after the flowering date; a temperature-related index value for each day of each stage based on the fruit temperature at each of a plurality of stages obtained by dividing the period from flowering to harvest, and a period until an integrated value of the temperature-related index value for each day of each stage reaches a threshold value set for each stage is calculated as a period of each of the plurality of stages; a computer that executes a process of adding up the calculated periods of the plurality of stages to predict the cultivation period; A prediction program characterized in that, in the calculation process, the contribution of the fruit temperature to the temperature-related index value is determined for each stage.

8. causing the computer to execute a process of acquiring information on the number of flowers in bloom on a plurality of flowering dates; 8. The prediction program according to claim 7, wherein the prediction process predicts the cultivation period corresponding to each of the plurality of flowering dates, and predicts the number of fruits to be harvested on each day based on the predicted cultivation period and information on the number of flowers.

9. Acquire or estimate a fruit temperature, which is the temperature of the surface of the fruit of the fruit vegetables after the flowering date of the fruit vegetables; a prediction process is executed to obtain a temperature-related index value for each day of a plurality of stages obtained by dividing a cultivation period from flowering to harvest based on the fruit temperature in each of the plurality of stages, calculate a period until an integrated value of the temperature-related index value for each day of the plurality of stages reaches a threshold value set for each stage as a period of each of the plurality of stages, and predict the cultivation period by summing up the calculated periods of each of the plurality of stages; If the result of the prediction process does not become a desired value, the fruit temperature is changed to another value and the prediction process is repeated. outputting information based on the value of the fruit temperature when the result of the prediction process reaches a desired value; Have the computer execute the process, An environmental adjustment program, characterized in that the contribution of the fruit temperature to the temperature-related index value is determined for each stage.

10. causing the computer to execute a process of acquiring information on the number of flowers in bloom on a plurality of flowering dates; The environmental adjustment program according to claim 9, characterized in that the prediction process predicts the cultivation period corresponding to each of the plurality of flowering dates, and predicts the number of fruits to be harvested on each day based on the predicted cultivation period and information on the number of flowers.

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