Component state estimation device, component state estimation method, and program

Abstract

A component state estimation device (10) comprises an acquisition unit (110) and an estimation unit (120). The acquisition unit (110) acquires state information and operation prediction data. The state information indicates the state of a component included in a product. The operation prediction data acquires operation prediction data indicating anticipated results for the operation state of the product until a prescribed amount of time has elapsed. The estimation unit (120) uses the state information and operation prediction data to estimate the degradation state of the component after the prescribed amount of time has elapsed. The estimation unit (120) may also use performance data regarding the operation state of the product to estimate the degradation state.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a component state estimation device, a component state estimation system, a component state estimation method, and a recording medium. [Background technology]

[0002] In order to manage a product consisting of multiple parts, it is important to understand the status of each part. Patent Document 1 discloses a server that manages user devices. This server acquires time-series data of detection information from sensors attached to the user devices and analyzes this time-series data. The server then generates a message explaining how to improve the use of the user devices to extend their lifespan and reduce the likelihood of breakdowns, and transmits the generated message to the user devices. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2021-110998 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] In managing a product, it is important to estimate the future deterioration state of parts included in the product. However, the above-mentioned Patent Document 1 does not disclose anything about estimating the future deterioration state of parts.

[0005] In view of the above-described problems, an example of an object of the present invention is to provide a component state estimation device, a component state estimation system, a component state estimation method, and a recording medium that are capable of estimating the future deterioration state of components included in a product. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] According to one aspect of the present invention, an acquisition unit acquires status information indicating the status of components included in a product and acquires operation prediction data indicating a predicted result of the operation status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; an estimation means for estimating a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed using the state information and the operation prediction data; A component state estimation device is provided, comprising:

[0007] According to one aspect of the present invention, there is provided a communication device mounted on a product; a component state estimation device; Equipped with the communication device transmits state information indicating states of the parts included in the product to the part state estimation device; The component state estimation device includes: an acquisition means for acquiring the status information and operation prediction data indicating a predicted result of the operation status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; an estimation means for estimating a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed using the state information and the operation prediction data; A component condition estimation system is provided, comprising:

[0008] According to one aspect of the present invention, a computer includes: Acquire status information indicating the status of parts included in the product, and acquire operation prediction data indicating the predicted results of the operation status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; A component state estimation method is provided that uses the state information and the operation prediction data to estimate the deterioration state of the component after a predetermined time has elapsed.

[0009] According to one aspect of the present invention, a computer is provided with: an acquisition process for acquiring status information indicating the status of components included in a product and acquiring operation prediction data indicating the predicted operating status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; an estimation process for estimating a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed using the state information and the operation prediction data; A computer-readable recording medium is provided that stores a program for causing the computer to perform the above. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to provide a component state estimation device, a component state estimation system, a component state estimation method, and a recording medium that are capable of estimating the future deterioration state of a component included in a product. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram illustrating an overview of a component state estimating device according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of an environment in which the component state estimating device illustrated in FIG. 1 is used. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a detailed example of an environment in which the component state estimation device is used. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of estimated information. [Figure 5] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a first example of information output by an output unit. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a second example of information output by the output unit. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a third example of information output by the output unit. [Figure 8] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of a component state estimating device. [Figure 9] 4 is a flowchart illustrating an example of processing performed by the component state estimating device. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In all the drawings, like components are designated by like reference numerals, and the description thereof will be omitted as appropriate.

[0013] 1 is a diagram showing an overview of a component state estimating device 10 according to an embodiment. The component state estimating device 10 includes an acquiring unit 110 and an estimating unit 120.

[0014] The acquisition unit 110 acquires status information and operation prediction data. The status information indicates the status of parts included in the product. The operation prediction data indicates the predicted operating status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed.

[0015] The estimation unit 120 uses the state information and the operation prediction data to estimate the deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed.

[0016] By using this component state estimation device 10, it is possible to estimate the deterioration state of a component after a predetermined time has elapsed, using the state information and operation prediction data.

[0017] Fig. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a usage environment of the component state estimating device 10 shown in Fig. 1. In the example shown in this figure, the component state estimating device 10 acquires state information from a transmitting device 22 mounted on a product 20. The component state estimating device 10 and the transmitting device 22 form at least a part of a component state estimating system.

[0018] A detailed example of the component state estimating device 10 will be described below.

[0019] 3 is a diagram showing a detailed example of a usage environment of the component state estimating device 10. The component state estimating device 10 is carried by, for example, at least one of the user, owner, and manager of the product 20. The component state estimating device 10 may be, for example, a portable communication terminal such as a smartphone or tablet terminal, or may be a fixed device.

[0020] The product 20 has a plurality of parts. Examples of the product 20 are vehicles such as automobiles, trains, airplanes, and mobile communication terminals. However, the product 20 is not limited to these. If the product 20 is an automobile, the parts are at least one of a battery, engine oil, wipers, headlights, belts, tires, and brake pads. The parts are also not limited to these.

[0021] The product 20 has a transmitting device 22. The transmitting device 22 transmits status information. The status information indicates the status of a component included in the product 20. The status information is, for example, a detected value of a sensor attached to the component and a value calculated using the detected value.

[0022] The sensor may be, for example, at least one of a voltage sensor, a current sensor, a power sensor, a temperature sensor, and a concentration sensor, but is not limited to these. For example, if the component is a battery, the status information may be at least one of the output voltage, output current, output power, and SOC of the battery.

[0023] Furthermore, when the status information is calculated using the detected value of the sensor, the status information is calculated, for example, using past detected values ​​of the sensor. For example, the status information is the ratio of the current detected value of the sensor to the detected value of the sensor when the part is new. The status information may also be calculated using the history of detected values ​​of the sensor.

[0024] Here, the timing at which the transmitting device 22 transmits the status information varies. For example, the transmitting device 22 may transmit the status information when it receives information indicating a request for status information from the part state estimation device 10. The transmitting device 22 may also transmit the status information at a predetermined timing. The transmitting device 22 may also transmit the status information periodically. Note that, if the product 20 is a vehicle, an example of this timing is when a vehicle inspection or periodic inspection is performed.

[0025] Furthermore, if the product 20 is a vehicle, the transmitter 22 may transmit the status information when the vehicle is stopped. Here, "the vehicle is stopped" means that if the vehicle has an engine, the engine is stopped, and if the vehicle is an electric vehicle, it means that no power is being supplied to the motor, or that the control unit that controls the power supply is turned off.

[0026] Furthermore, the component state estimation device 10 is used together with a model generation device 30 in addition to the transmission device 22. The estimation unit 120 of the component state estimation device 10 uses a model generated by machine learning or statistical processing when estimating the degradation state of a component after a predetermined time has elapsed. The model generation device 30 generates this model and stores it in the component state estimation device 10. An example of machine learning performed by the model generation device 30 is heterogeneous mixture learning. An example of statistical processing performed by the model generation device 30 is multiple regression analysis.

[0027] As described above, the component state estimating device 10 includes the acquiring unit 110 and the estimating unit 120. The component state estimating device 10 further includes an output unit 130 and a model storage unit 140.

[0028] The model storage unit 140 stores the model generated by the model generation device 30.

[0029] The acquiring unit 110 acquires information that will be explanatory variables of a model used by the estimating unit 120. This information includes at least state information and operation prediction data. Note that the acquiring unit 110 may acquire information necessary to generate operation prediction data instead of the operation prediction data.

[0030] The operation forecast data is, for example, schedule information indicating the operation schedule of the product 20.

[0031] An example of information necessary to generate the operation prediction data is the current date. In this case, the acquisition unit 110 further generates the operation prediction data using past performance data on the operating status of the product 20. For example, the acquisition unit 110 acquires performance data from the performance data for a date whose conditions are similar to those of the current date, and uses this performance data or the results of statistical processing of this performance data as the operation prediction data. Here, "a date whose conditions are similar to those of the current date" refers to, for example, the same date in the first, middle, or last part of the month, the same season, or the exact same date (for example, one year ago).

[0032] If the product 20 is a vehicle and the target part is a battery, the operation prediction data includes, for example, at least one of the following: mileage, driving time, average speed and upper limit, wiper operation time, headlight operation time, heating and cooling system operation time and set temperature, and the number of times the engine has been started (including the number of times the engine has been stopped idling).

[0033] The acquisition unit 110 acquires the operating state performance data from a storage unit that stores the operating history. This storage unit may also store past state information. This storage unit may be located within the component state estimating device 10, within the product 20, or external to the component state estimating device 10 and the product 20.

[0034] The explanatory variables of the model used by the estimation unit 120 may further include performance data on the operating state of the product 20. In this case, the performance data may include, for example, the date and time and duration of operation of the product 20. The performance data may further include information indicating the load applied to the product 20 during its operation. If the product 20 is a vehicle, the performance data preferably includes, for example, at least one of the travel distance, travel time, average speed and upper limit speed, wiper operation performance, headlight operation performance, operating time and set temperature of the air conditioner, and the number of times the engine has been started (including the number of times the engine has been idle-stopped).

[0035] The explanatory variables of the model used by the estimation unit 120 may further include at least one of past state information of the product 20 and the usage environment of the product 20 (for example, temperature, humidity).

[0036] The estimation unit 120 estimates the degradation state of the part using the information acquired by the acquisition unit 110 and the model stored in the model storage unit 140. Hereinafter, information indicating this estimation result will be referred to as estimated information.

[0037] The estimated information indicates the deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed. The predetermined time may be, for example, one day, one week, two weeks, one month, three months, or six months, but is not limited to these. The estimated information is expressed, for example, by a value indicating the deterioration state of the part. Hereinafter, this value will be referred to as the deterioration level. The deterioration level may be, for example, the ratio of the current capacity to the initial capacity, such as the SOH of a battery, or the degree of deterioration in the strength of a timing belt, but is not limited to these.

[0038] The estimation information may indicate the estimated result of the transition of the deterioration state of the part. In this case, an example of the estimation information is a table in which the horizontal axis indicates the elapsed time from the present (e.g., the elapsed months and days) and the vertical axis indicates the degree of deterioration of the part.

[0039] The output unit 130 outputs the estimation information generated by the estimation unit 120. For example, the output unit 130 outputs the estimation information to a display included in the component state estimating device 10 or an external printing device.

[0040] Furthermore, the output unit 130 performs a predetermined output when the estimation information satisfies a criterion. The criterion used here indicates that a component has deteriorated and should be replaced. For example, if the product 20 is a vehicle and the component is a battery, an example of the criterion for performing the predetermined output is that at least one of the SOC and voltage included in the estimation information falls below a reference value. In this case, the predetermined output performed by the output unit 150 indicates that the vehicle may not start due to insufficient remaining battery capacity.

[0041] The reference value is set, for example, by the user of the component state estimation device 10. Multiple reference values ​​may also be set. In this case, the first reference value indicates, for example, that a tendency for deterioration is observed, and the reference value next to the first reference value, i.e., the second reference value, indicates that the deterioration may be progressing. Furthermore, the reference value next to the second reference value, i.e., the third reference value, indicates that the component should be replaced immediately.

[0042] Note that detailed examples of the output conditions for the predetermined information include at least one of the following: In any of the examples, the estimation information of the estimation unit 120 includes an estimated value of a parameter indicating the state of the component, for example, an estimated value of at least one of the SOC and output voltage of the battery. a) If the estimated value corresponding to the current date and time is below the reference value, the predetermined output may indicate that the part should be replaced, depending on the reference value setting. b) When the estimated value corresponding to "a predetermined time after the current date and time" falls below the reference value. This means that the part does not need to be replaced now, but it would be better to replace the part after a predetermined time, for example, one month.

[0043] The predetermined information output by the output unit 130 preferably includes information indicating the timing for replacing the part, for example, the timing when the estimated value of a parameter indicating the condition of the part falls below a reference value.

[0044] The predetermined information output by the output unit 130 may also include reference information to be referred to in order to suppress deterioration of parts. The reference information may include, for example, information on how to use the product 20 or the operation timing, such as guidance on the operation timing and operation time. This guidance may include, for example, an operation schedule for the product 20.

[0045] For example, if the product 20 is a vehicle with an engine and the component is a battery, it is preferable to operate the vehicle periodically but not for long periods of time in order to prevent battery degradation. Therefore, the output unit 130 may generate an operation schedule as reference information that operates the vehicle periodically but does not operate the vehicle for long periods of time. For example, if the vehicle is a logistics vehicle, the operation schedule generated by the output unit 130 becomes delivery plan information for goods by the vehicle. This delivery plan information includes at least a departure point, a destination point, and a waypoint for each date. The delivery alert area information may further include at least one of route information from the departure point to the destination point, an arrival time at the waypoint, and an arrival time at the destination point.

[0046] The component state estimation device 10 may be a cloud server. In this case, the output unit 130 outputs the estimation information and performs the predetermined output described above to a terminal carried by at least one of the user, owner, and manager of the product 20. The terminal then displays the estimation information and the predetermined output.

[0047] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of estimation information. In the example shown in this figure, the estimation information shows the estimated results of the transition of a parameter indicating the state of a part, such as the transition of the SOC or output voltage of a battery. The origin of the graph showing this information is, for example, the present. The timing when this parameter falls below the reference value indicates the estimated timing when it is best to replace the part.

[0048] 5 is a diagram showing a first example of information output by the output unit 130. In the example shown in this diagram, the output unit 130 outputs, as predetermined information, information indicating the estimated timing for replacing a part.

[0049] 5, the information output by the output unit 130 is displayed on a display. This display includes a mark 200. The output unit 130 changes the display mode of the mark 200, for example, at least one of the color, size, pattern, and shape, depending on the result of estimating the deterioration state of the part after a predetermined period of time has elapsed. For example, if the estimated value of the deterioration level of the part after a predetermined period of time is equal to or less than a first reference value, the output unit 130 displays the mark 200 in a mode indicating that there is no problem with the part, for example, blue. If the estimated value is equal to or greater than the first reference value and equal to or less than a second reference value, the output unit 130 displays the mark 200 in a mode indicating that there is a possibility that there will be a problem with the part, for example, yellow. If the estimated value is equal to or greater than the second reference value, the output unit 130 displays the mark 200 in a mode indicating that there is a high possibility that there will be a problem with the part, for example, red.

[0050] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a second example of information output by the output unit 130. In FIG. 6, the vertical axis represents the estimated value of the deterioration degree. In the example shown in this figure, the estimation unit 120 generates estimated information using multiple pieces of operation forecast data, for example, operation forecast data indicating a busy state, operation forecast data indicating a normal state, and operation forecast data indicating an off-peak state. The output unit 130 then includes these multiple pieces of estimated information in the predetermined information. In the example shown in this figure, the multiple pieces of estimated information are displayed overlapping each other in the same graph.

[0051] 7 is a diagram showing a third example of information output by the output unit 130. In the example shown in this figure, the output unit 130 includes, in the predetermined information, reference information, i.e., information to be referenced in order to suppress deterioration of parts. In the example shown in this figure, the reference information includes an upper limit of the operating time of the product 20 per unit time (e.g., one month) and an operating schedule of the product 20.

[0052] The output unit 130 may output the information shown in FIG. 6 and the information shown in FIG. 7 simultaneously.

[0053] 8 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the component state estimating device 10. The component state estimating device 10 includes a bus 1010, a processor 1020, a memory 1030, a storage device 1040, an input / output interface 1050, and a network interface 1060.

[0054] The bus 1010 is a data transmission path for transmitting and receiving data among the processor 1020, memory 1030, storage device 1040, input / output interface 1050, and network interface 1060. However, the method of connecting the processor 1020 and the like to each other is not limited to bus connection.

[0055] The processor 1020 is implemented by a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), or the like.

[0056] The memory 1030 is a main storage device realized by a RAM (Random Access Memory) or the like.

[0057] The storage device 1040 is an auxiliary storage device realized by removable media such as a hard disk drive (HDD), a solid state drive (SSD), or a memory card, or a read-only memory (ROM). The storage device 1040 stores program modules that realize each function of the part state estimating device 10 (e.g., the acquisition unit 110, the estimation unit 120, and the output unit 130). The processor 1020 loads each of these program modules into the memory 1030 and executes them, thereby realizing each function corresponding to the program module. The storage device 1040 also functions as a model storage unit 140.

[0058] The input / output interface 1050 is an interface for connecting the component state estimating device 10 to various input / output devices.

[0059] The network interface 1060 is an interface for connecting the component state estimating device 10 to a network. This network is, for example, a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN). The network interface 1060 may be connected to the network wirelessly or by wire. The component state estimating device 10 communicates with the transmitting device 22 and the model generating device 30 via the network interface 1060.

[0060] FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing an example of processing performed by the component state estimation device 10. The transmission device 22 of the product 20 transmits state information to the component state estimation device 10 at a predetermined timing. An example of this timing is, for example, when the product 20 changes from an operating state to a stopped state, but is not limited to this and may be, for example, when the product 20 is subjected to a periodic inspection. The acquisition unit 110 of the component state estimation device 10 acquires this state information. The acquisition unit 110 also acquires other information necessary for generating the estimation information. An example of this information is operation prediction data or information necessary for generating operation prediction data (step S10).

[0061] Next, the estimation unit 120 of the component state estimation device 10 generates estimation information. As described above, the estimation information indicates the deterioration state of the component after a predetermined time has elapsed (step S20). Details of the processing performed by the estimation unit 120 are as described using FIG. 3.

[0062] Next, the output unit 130 of the component state estimating device 10 outputs the estimation information (step S40). Details of the processing performed by the output unit 130 are as described using FIGS.

[0063] As described above, according to this embodiment, the acquisition unit 110 of the component state estimation device 10 acquires state information and operation prediction data. The estimation unit 120 of the component state estimation device 10 then uses a model to estimate the degradation state of the component after a predetermined time has elapsed. The explanatory variables of this model include at least the state information and operation prediction data. Therefore, the component state estimation device 10 can be used to estimate the future degradation state of the component included in the product 20.

[0064] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above with reference to the drawings, these are merely examples of the present invention, and various other configurations can also be adopted.

[0065] In addition, in the flowcharts used in the above description, multiple steps (processes) are described in order, but the order of execution of the steps performed in each embodiment is not limited to the order described. In each embodiment, the order of the steps shown in the drawings can be changed to the extent that the content is not affected. Furthermore, the above-mentioned embodiments can be combined to the extent that the content is not contradictory.

[0066] Some or all of the above-described embodiments can be described as, but are not limited to, the following supplementary notes. 1. An acquisition means for acquiring status information indicating the status of parts included in a product and acquiring operation prediction data indicating the predicted results of the operation status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; an estimation means for estimating a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed using the state information and the operation prediction data; A component state estimation device comprising: 2. In the component state estimating device described in 1 above, The part state estimation device, wherein the estimation means further estimates the deterioration state using performance data on the operating state of the product. 3. In the component state estimation device according to 1 or 2 above, The part state estimating device, wherein the acquisition means generates the operation prediction data using at least one of schedule information indicating an operation schedule of the product and the current date. 4. In the component state estimating device according to any one of 1 to 3 above, The component state estimating device further comprises an output means for producing a predetermined output when the estimation result by the estimation means satisfies a criterion. 5. In the component state estimating device described in 4 above, The component state estimation device, wherein the predetermined output includes information indicating when the component should be replaced. 6. In the component state estimation device according to 4 or 5 above, A component state estimation device, wherein the predetermined output includes reference information to be referenced in order to suppress deterioration of the component. 7. The component state estimating device according to claim 6, The component state estimation device, wherein the reference information relates to the operation timing of the product. 8. The component state estimating device according to 7 above, The product is a vehicle for logistics, A part state estimating device comprising: a delivery plan generating means for generating delivery plan information for the vehicle using the reference information. 9. In the component state estimating device according to any one of 1 to 8 above, the product is a vehicle; The component state estimation device, wherein the component is at least one of a battery, engine oil, a wiper, a headlight, a belt, a tire, and a brake pad. 10. The component state estimation device according to claim 9, the component is a battery; The operation prediction data includes at least one of the following: travel distance, travel time, average speed and upper limit speed, wiper operation time, headlight operation time, air conditioning operation time and set temperature, and the number of times the engine has been started (including the number of times the engine has been stopped idling). 11. A communication device installed in the product; a component state estimation device; Equipped with the communication device transmits state information indicating states of the parts included in the product to the part state estimation device; 11. A component state estimation system, wherein the component state estimation device is the component state estimation device according to any one of 1 to 10 above. 12. The computer Acquire status information indicating the status of parts included in the product, and acquire operation prediction data indicating the predicted results of the operation status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; A component state estimation method for estimating a deterioration state of the component after a predetermined time has elapsed using the component state information and the operation prediction data. 13. The component state estimation method according to claim 12, The computer further estimates the deterioration state using performance data on the operating state of the product. 14. The component state estimation method according to 12 or 13 above, The computer generates the operation prediction data using at least one of schedule information indicating an operation schedule of the product and the current date. 15. In the component state estimation method according to any one of the above items 12 to 14, The computer outputs a predetermined signal when the estimation result satisfies a criterion. 16. In the component state estimation method described in 15 above, The component condition estimation method, wherein the predetermined output includes information indicating when the component should be replaced. 17. The component state estimation method according to 15 or 16 above, A component state estimation method, wherein the predetermined output includes reference information to be referred to in order to suppress deterioration of the component. 18. In the component state estimation method described in 17 above, The component state estimation method, wherein the reference information relates to operation timing of the product. 19. The component state estimation method according to claim 18, The product is a vehicle for logistics, The computer uses the reference information to generate delivery plan information for the vehicle. 20. In the component state estimation method according to any one of the above items 12 to 19, the product is a vehicle; The component is at least one of a battery, engine oil, a wiper, a headlight, a belt, a tire, and a brake pad. 21. The component state estimation method according to claim 20, the component is a battery; A component state estimation method in which the operation prediction data includes at least one of the following: travel distance, travel time, average speed and upper limit, wiper operation time, headlight operation time, air conditioning operation time and set temperature, and the number of times the engine has been started (including the number of times the engine has been stopped idling). 22.To the computer, an acquisition process for acquiring status information indicating the status of components included in a product and acquiring operation prediction data indicating the predicted operating status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; an estimation process for estimating a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed using the state information and the operation prediction data; A computer-readable recording medium that stores a program for causing the computer to perform the above. 23. The recording medium according to 22 above, The estimation process further estimates the degradation state using performance data on the operating state of the product. 24. The recording medium according to 22 or 23 above, The acquisition process generates the operation prediction data using at least one of schedule information indicating an operation schedule of the product and the current date. 25. The recording medium according to any one of the above items 22 to 24, The program causes the computer to perform an output process of producing a predetermined output when an estimation result from the estimation process satisfies a criterion. 26. The recording medium according to claim 25, The predetermined output includes information indicating when the part should be replaced. 27. The recording medium according to 25 or 26 above, A recording medium in which the predetermined output includes reference information to be referred to in order to suppress deterioration of the component. 28. The recording medium according to claim 27, The reference information relates to operation timing of the product. 29. The recording medium according to claim 28, The product is a vehicle for logistics, The program causes the computer to perform a delivery plan generation process for generating delivery plan information for the vehicle using the reference information. 30. The recording medium according to any one of the above items 22 to 29, the product is a vehicle; The recording medium, wherein the part is at least one of a battery, engine oil, a wiper, a headlight, a belt, a tire, and a brake pad. 31. The recording medium according to claim 30, the component is a battery; The operation prediction data is a recording medium including at least one of the following: travel distance, travel time, average speed and upper limit, wiper operation time, headlight operation time, air conditioning operation time and set temperature, and the number of times the engine has been started (including the number of times the engine has been stopped at idle). 32. The program according to any one of 22 to 31 above. [Explanation of symbols]

[0067] 10. Part condition estimation device 20 products 22 Transmitting device 30 Model generation device 110 Acquisition Department 120 Estimation part 130 Output section 140 Model Memory Unit

Claims

1. an acquisition means for acquiring status information indicating the status of components included in a product and acquiring operation prediction data indicating the predicted operating status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; an estimation means for estimating a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed using the state information and the operation prediction data, using a model generated by machine learning or statistical processing for estimating a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed, the model using information including the state information and the operation prediction data as explanatory variables; Equipped with further comprising an output means for outputting a predetermined output when the estimation result by the estimation means satisfies a criterion; The component state estimation device, wherein the predetermined output includes reference information to be referred to in order to suppress deterioration of the component.

2. In the component state estimation device according to claim 1, The component state estimation device, wherein the reference information relates to the operation timing of the product.

3. In the component state estimation device according to claim 2, The product is a vehicle for logistics, A part state estimating device comprising: a delivery plan generating means for generating delivery plan information for the vehicle using the reference information.

4. In the component state estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, the product is a vehicle; The component state estimation device, wherein the component is at least one of a battery, engine oil, a wiper, a headlight, a belt, a tire, and a brake pad.

5. In the component state estimation device according to claim 4, the component is a battery; The operation prediction data includes at least one of the following: travel distance, travel time, average speed and upper limit speed, wiper operation time, headlight operation time, air conditioning operation time and set temperature, and the number of times the engine has been started (including the number of times the engine has been stopped idling).

6. The computer Acquire status information indicating the status of parts included in the product, and acquire operation prediction data indicating the predicted results of the operation status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; a part state estimation method using the state information and the operation prediction data to estimate a deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed using a model generated by machine learning or statistical processing that estimates the deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has elapsed, the model using information including the state information and the operation prediction data as explanatory variables, and when the estimation result satisfies a criterion, a predetermined output is produced, the predetermined output including reference information that should be referred to in order to suppress deterioration of the part.

7. On the computer, an acquisition process for acquiring status information indicating the status of components included in a product and acquiring operation prediction data indicating the predicted operating status of the product until a predetermined time has elapsed; A program that performs an estimation process using the status information and the operation prediction data to estimate the deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has passed using a model generated by machine learning or statistical processing that estimates the deterioration state of the part after a predetermined time has passed, with information including the status information and the operation prediction data as explanatory variables, and an output process that produces a predetermined output when the estimation result satisfies a standard, wherein the predetermined output includes reference information that should be referred to in order to suppress deterioration of the part.

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