Earthquake prediction method

Abstract

Provided is an earthquake prediction method for predicting that a specific period is a period with a high likelihood of earthquake occurrence on the basis of information on a seismic intensity or magnitude of interest for prediction in a particular area on the earth.　An earthquake prediction method according to the present invention comprises: an astronomical information collection step S1 for collecting astronomical information for a predetermined period in the past and a predetermined period in the future; a parameter acquisition step S2 for acquiring a parameter based on the collected astronomical information; an earthquake occurrence range identification step S3 for identifying an earthquake occurrence range, which is a range of the parameter in an earthquake occurrence period in which an earthquake actually occurred with the seismic intensity or magnitude of interest for prediction in the predetermined period in the past; and an earthquake prediction step S4 for extracting a period in which the parameter is within the earthquake occurrence range from the predetermined period in the future and predicting that the extracted period is a period with a likelihood of earthquake occurrence.

Description

Earthquake prediction methods

[0001] The present invention relates to an earthquake prediction method.

[0002] The Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011, is still fresh in our memories, and the horror of a major earthquake and tsunami is etched in our minds. If such earthquakes could be predicted to some extent, it might be possible to reduce human damage. For this reason, there is a need for an earthquake prediction method that can predict earthquakes of a certain magnitude or larger and warn residents in affected areas before they occur.

[0003] However, even now, when there are concerns about the Nankai Trough earthquake, the Tokai earthquake, and an earthquake directly beneath the capital, earthquake predictions remain limited to vague predictions such as "there is a 70% chance of an earthquake occurring within the next 30 years," and it is difficult to say that earthquake prediction has made any progress.

[0004] There is also a known hypothesis that earthquakes occur primarily when plates bounce up when they continue to move in a certain direction, collide with each other, and the force has nowhere to escape (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

[0005] In addition to inland earthquakes, there are also subduction-zone earthquakes that occur when the lower plate sinks beneath the upper plate, causing the connection between the upper and lower plates to break away.

[0006] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 08-220247

[0007] However, it is unclear whether earthquakes are actually caused by plates made of soil and rock bouncing up like springs.

[0008] Furthermore, there are two types of seismic waves: P waves and S waves, with P waves traveling faster than S waves. On the other hand, it is the S waves that arrive later that mainly cause damage due to strong shaking. For this reason, earthquake predictions are carried out by taking advantage of the difference in the speed at which seismic waves travel, and alerting people to impending danger when the P waves, which travel first, are detected, before the S waves arrive. However, there is only a few seconds difference in the arrival time of P waves and S waves, which means that this time is insufficient to take measures against earthquakes.

[0009] The present invention aims to provide an earthquake prediction method that predicts a specific period during which an earthquake of desired strength (seismic intensity or magnitude) is likely to occur in a specific region on Earth.

[0010] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides an earthquake prediction method including an astronomical information collection step of collecting astronomical information for a predetermined period in the past and a predetermined period in the future; a parameter acquisition step of acquiring parameters based on the collected astronomical information; an earthquake occurrence range identification step of identifying an earthquake occurrence range that is within the range of the parameters during an earthquake occurrence period in the predetermined period in the past when an earthquake actually occurred; and an earthquake prediction step of extracting a period during the predetermined period in the future when the parameters are within the earthquake occurrence range and predicting that period as a period during which an earthquake is likely to occur.

[0011] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide an earthquake prediction method that predicts a specific period during which an earthquake of desired strength (seismic intensity or magnitude) is likely to occur in a specific region on the earth.

[0012] 1 is a diagram showing the results of investigating the positional relationship between the sun, earth, and moon when an earthquake of seismic intensity 6+ or higher occurs in Japan. It is a diagram showing groups of the position of the earth relative to the sun when an earthquake of seismic intensity 6+ or higher occurs in Japan as shown in FIG. 1. It is a diagram showing the range of the position of the moon relative to the earth when the earth shown in FIG. 1 is moved in the X and Y directions without rotating and aligned in one position. It is a diagram showing the basic concept of the present invention. It is a flowchart showing the earthquake prediction method of the present invention. It is a diagram explaining parameters 1 to 4. It is a diagram explaining parameters 5 to 9. It is a diagram explaining parameters 10 to 13. It is a diagram explaining parameters 14 to 17. It is a diagram explaining parameter 18. It is a diagram explaining parameters 19 and 20. It is a diagram explaining parameter 21. It is a diagram explaining parameter 22. It is a diagram explaining parameter 23. It is a diagram explaining parameter 24. It is a diagram explaining parameter 25. It is a diagram explaining parameters 24, 28, 29, and 30. It is a diagram explaining parameters 31, 32, and 33. It is a diagram explaining parameters 34, 35, 36, 37, and 38. It is a diagram explaining parameter 43. It is a diagram explaining parameter 44. 4 is a diagram illustrating parameters 45, 46, 47, and 48. FIG. 49 is a diagram illustrating parameter 50. FIG. 51 is a diagram illustrating parameter 52. FIG. 53 is a diagram illustrating parameter 54. FIG.

[0013] Based on the law of inertia, which states that an object will maintain a constant motion or remain stationary unless acted upon by an external force, and the fact that the tides are caused by the tidal force of the moon, the inventor of the present application hypothesized that forces external to the Earth, i.e., the gravitational force and tidal forces of celestial bodies other than the Earth, are related to earthquakes that occur on Earth.

[0014] First, we investigated the relative positions of the Sun, Earth, and Moon when earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher occurred in Japan between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2022. Figure 1 shows the results, with a line drawn through the Earth's aphelion (July 2) and perihelion (January 2), with the aphelion side designated as the positive direction of the X-axis of the XY coordinate system, and the perihelion (January 2) side designated as the negative direction of the X-axis of the XY coordinate system. Furthermore, with the Sun at the center, July 2 is designated as 0°, and January 2 is designated as 180°.

[0015] This allows the astronomical directions of potentially related items to be converted into mathematical directions (angles), and by using fixed coordinates, trigonometric functions can be used as coefficients, making it possible to compare the strength of forces numerically.

[0016] The symbols attached to the Earth in the figure are explained as follows: 1 is the Earth's position at the time of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake on January 17, 1995; 2 is the Earth's position at the time of the Tottori Prefecture Western Earthquake on October 6, 2000; 3 is the Earth's position at the time of the Miyagi Prefecture Northern Earthquake on July 26, 2003; 4-6 is the Earth's position at the time of the Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Earthquake on October 23, 2004; 7 is the Earth's position at the time of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake on March 25, 2007; 8 is the Earth's position at the time of the Niigata-Johchuetsu Offshore Earthquake on July 16, 2007; 9 is the Earth's position at the time of the Iwate-Miyagi Inland Earthquake on June 14, 2008; 10-13 are the Earth's position at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 12, and 15, 2011; 14 is the Earth's position at the time of the Miyagi Prefecture Offshore Earthquake on April 7, 2011. 15-18 is the position of the Earth during the Kumamoto earthquake on April 14, 15, and 16, 2016. 19 is the position of the Earth during the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake on September 6, 2018. 20 is the position of the Earth during the Yamagata Prefecture offshore earthquake on June 18, 2019. 21 is the position of the Earth during the Fukushima offshore earthquake on February 13, 2021. 22 is the position of the Earth during the Fukushima offshore earthquake on March 16, 2022.

[0017] The position (direction) of the moon at the time the earthquake occurred is shown on the outer periphery of the Earth at each marked date and time. The black circle indicates the position of the moon when an earthquake of seismic intensity 7 occurred, and the white circle indicates the position of the moon when an earthquake of seismic intensity 6+ occurred.

[0018] (1) The relationship between the Earth's position relative to the sun and earthquakes Figure 2 is a diagram showing groups of the Earth's position relative to the sun when earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher occur in Japan, as shown in Figure 1. As shown in Figure 2, there is a tendency for many earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher to occur in Japan around 0° (group A enclosed by diagonal lines in the figure), around 90° (group B), around 180° (group C), and especially around 270° (group D).

[0019] (2) Relationship between the Position of the Moon Relative to the Earth and Earthquakes Figure 3 is a diagram showing the range of the position of the Moon relative to the Earth when the Earth shown in Figure 1 is moved in the X and Y directions without rotating and aligned in one place. The X1 axis in Figure 3 is parallel to the X axis in Figure 1, and the Y1 axis is parallel to the Y axis in Figure 1. Figure 3 shows that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher that have occurred in Japan tend to occur when the Moon's position is in the + / - direction of the X axis, especially in the -X direction.

[0020] (3) Relationship with celestial bodies in the solar system As mentioned above, when the Earth is in a certain relationship with the Sun and the Moon, there is a tendency for the possibility of earthquakes occurring to be higher. From this, the hypothesis mentioned above that forces external to the Earth, that is, the gravitational force of celestial bodies other than the Earth, are related to earthquakes occurring on Earth, seems to be correct.

[0021] The basic concept of the present invention is shown in Figure 4. In Figure 5, the globe is a butter roll, and the force acting on the globe is a pulling force by hand. For example, it is impossible to tear a butter roll floating in the air by pulling it with a force acting in only one direction, as in Figure 4(a). To tear a butter roll floating in the air, two or more forces equivalent to the action and reaction shown in Figure 4(b) are required. When forces acting in multiple directions, as in Figure 4(c), are applied to the butter roll, it is thought that the butter roll will be more likely to tear under certain conditions, rather than being as simple as when two forces are applied.

[0022] Therefore, in order to find these specific conditions, we extracted the conditions under which the gravitational forces of the Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune, which are thought to have a large gravitational influence on the Earth, are more likely to break apart (making earthquakes more likely to occur), from the conditions when past earthquakes have occurred.

[0023] He then hypothesized that when the gravitational force (≒ tidal force) exerted on the Earth by celestial bodies in the solar system, which changes more slowly than tidal forces, decreases, the force of the Earth's gravitational contraction becomes stronger, causing the pressure inside the Earth to increase and become unstable, and when this condition is met with tidal forces that change from moment to moment due to the Earth's rotation, earthquakes are more likely to occur.

[0024] Therefore, the earthquake prediction method of the present invention predicts earthquakes using a plurality of parameters, which are described below, based on astronomical information that indicates the relationship between the Earth and other celestial bodies. In this embodiment, 57 parameters are used. For ease of explanation, the parameters are appropriately represented as "P." For example, parameter 1 is represented as "1P," and parameter 2 is represented as "2P."

[0025] These parameters relate to the direction and magnitude of the gravitational force exerted on the Earth by a given celestial body, etc. The earthquake prediction method of the present invention predicts that an earthquake will occur in a given area if these parameters are within the earthquake occurrence range of past earthquakes.

[0026] When multiple parameters are used, the earthquake prediction method of the present invention predicts that an earthquake will occur in a specified area if at least one of the multiple parameters, preferably more than half, and even more preferably all, are within the earthquake occurrence range.

[0027] The number of parameters used to predict earthquake occurrence among multiple parameters should be as large as possible, as this improves the accuracy of earthquake prediction. In this embodiment, earthquakes are predicted using all of the parameters 1P to 57P described below. However, this is not limited to this, and some of the parameters 1P to 57P may be excluded. Furthermore, new celestial information parameters such as those related to tidal forces may be added.

[0028] The earthquake prediction method of the present invention will be described in detail below. Fig. 5 is a flowchart showing the earthquake prediction method of the present invention. The earthquake prediction method of the present invention includes an astronomical information collection step S1, a parameter acquisition step S2, an earthquake range identification step S3, and an earthquake prediction step S4.

[0029] 1. Astronomical Information Collection Step S1 (Setting of Earthquake Prediction Target Area) In the astronomical information collection step S1, the earthquake prediction target area is first set. Setting the earthquake prediction target area involves determining the earthquake prediction target area for which earthquakes are to be predicted. The earthquake prediction target area can be any region on Earth, and can be, for example, Japan only, or the Asian region (multiple countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines), or can be determined at the forecaster's discretion, such as a specified latitude and longitude range or limited to the West Coast of the United States. However, if the range of the earthquake prediction target area is expanded too much, predictions may become impossible due to excessive information, and if the earthquake prediction target area is narrowed too much, there may be less information and the accuracy may decrease, so an appropriate range must be determined while observing the results.

[0030] (Data collection period setting) Next, the period for collecting data for earthquake prediction is set. The period for collecting data for earthquake prediction is a specified period in the past (past data collection period) in the earthquake prediction target area and a future target period for earthquake prediction (prediction period). The past data collection period and prediction period can be set arbitrarily by the researcher and the forecaster, but are usually limited to the period during which earthquake data for the area and astronomical information for that period can be obtained.

[0031] (Collection of Astronomical Information) Then, astronomical information is collected for both the past data collection period and the prediction period for the earthquake prediction target area. The astronomical information includes, for example, the gravitational force, distance, position, angle, mass, etc. of each celestial body, but may also include other celestial body-related characteristics such as the state of the celestial body, such as sunspots, tide levels, gravitational waves, etc. Furthermore, the celestial body information may also include atmospheric pressure on Earth and the Coriolis force.

[0032] (Celestial bodies from which astronomical information is acquired) In the present embodiment, the celestial bodies used for prediction are the Earth, the Sun, the Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. However, the present embodiment is not limited to these and other celestial bodies may be used. Furthermore, other celestial bodies may be added to the celestial bodies used for prediction in the present embodiment, or some celestial bodies may be removed from the celestial bodies used for prediction in the present embodiment. Furthermore, the other celestial bodies are not limited to planets in the solar system, but may also be celestial bodies belonging to a galaxy other than the solar system or extragalactic bodies, as long as they may have an impact on the Earth. Furthermore, the other celestial bodies are not limited to planets, but may also be nebulae, stars, dwarf planets, satellites, comets, black holes, etc. Furthermore, the other celestial bodies may be a fictitious celestial body (celestial body X) that may exist far away on the x-axis in geocentric coordinates. The fictitious celestial body (celestial body X) may also be a black hole. In other words, in order to improve the accuracy rate, the parameters may be increased in the future.

[0033] In addition, in this embodiment, astronomical information is shown using x-y coordinates (geocentric coordinates) in which the Earth is at the center and the Sun is fixed at a 90° angle, or x-y coordinates (heliocentric coordinates) centered on the Sun. However, this is not limited to this. Astronomical information may also be shown without using coordinates. Furthermore, the center of coordinates is not limited to the Earth or the Sun, but may be the center of the galaxy, a black hole, or the like. Furthermore, in the embodiment, in geocentric coordinates, the x-y axes are lines passing through the perihelion and aphelion, but this is not limited to this, and the x-y axes may be directions passing through the winter solstice, vernal equinox, summer solstice, and autumnal equinox.

[0034] (Target period for acquiring astronomical information) The time unit for acquiring astronomical information is preferably one day or less for gravitational force, but may be shorter, such as one hour, ten minutes, or one minute. Also, for tidal force, it is preferably one hour or less, but may be shorter, such as ten minutes or one minute. The period for predicting earthquake occurrence depends on the unit of the collected astronomical information. For example, if celestial information is collected in units of hours or minutes, earthquakes can also be predicted in units of hours or minutes. This information is stored on a storage medium. The storage medium is preferably a computer, but documents, etc. may also be used.

[0035] (Sources of astronomical information) The preferred sources of astronomical information are the Japan Meteorological Agency in Japan and the USGS in the United States outside of Japan, but other specialized organizations are also acceptable. However, when obtaining astronomical information, attention must be paid to differences in the calculation methods for time of occurrence and magnitude due to time differences. The accuracy of astronomical information may vary depending on the source. For example, in the case of the age of the moon, the values ​​given on the Internet may vary slightly depending on the source, and there may be discrepancies between predicted values ​​and actual observed values ​​for the path of celestial bodies, etc. Therefore, a certain degree of ambiguity is acceptable.

[0036] 2. Parameter Acquisition Step S2 Based on the above astronomical information, various parameters are obtained directly from the astronomical information or by calculation from the astronomical information. The various parameters will be described later.

[0037] 3. Earthquake Range Identification Step S3 (Setting the Earthquake Scale to be Predicted) In the earthquake range identification step S3, first, the date and time of an earthquake of a predetermined scale that occurred in the past data collection period in the earthquake prediction target area is identified. The criteria for determining an earthquake of a predetermined scale may be a single criteria such as seismic intensity or magnitude, or a combination of multiple criteria.

[0038] (Identifying the earthquake occurrence range) Next, the numerical range of each parameter (individual earthquake occurrence range) is identified at the date and time when an earthquake of a predetermined magnitude or larger actually occurred within the past data collection period. Here, if the maximum value of the parameter at the time of the earthquake occurrence is 5.8, the earthquake occurrence range may be any range selected by the forecaster, such as 5.8 or less, 5.81 or less, or 6.0 or less, as long as it includes the range in which the earthquake actually occurred.

[0039] In addition, in the embodiment, the maximum value of the astronomical information when an earthquake occurs is calculated, and the range from 0 to a value slightly larger than the maximum value by a value α is set as the earthquake occurrence range. However, this is not limited to this, and the correlation between the minimum or average value of the range of astronomical information when an earthquake occurs and the occurrence of an earthquake may also be used. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the angle on the coordinates of a specified celestial body or some state of a specified celestial body (for example, the number of sunspots on the sun) and the occurrence of an earthquake may also be used. Furthermore, the value α can be changed each time a new earthquake occurs, etc.

[0040] (Calculating the hit rate) The hit rate for the earthquake occurrence range is as follows. First, the following numerical values ​​are calculated within the past data collection period. A: The number of times that an earthquake of a predetermined strength, for example, in this embodiment, an earthquake of seismic intensity of 6+ or higher, has occurred within the earthquake occurrence range (considered to be a period in which an earthquake is "likely to occur" and can be predicted) B: The number of times that an earthquake of seismic intensity of 6+ or higher has occurred outside the earthquake occurrence range C: The number of times that an earthquake of seismic intensity of 6+ or higher has not occurred within the earthquake occurrence range D: The number of times that an earthquake of seismic intensity of 6+ or higher has not occurred outside the earthquake occurrence range (considered to be a period in which an earthquake is "not likely to occur" and can be predicted) N: Total number of predictions A + B + C + D

[0041] Note that a seismic intensity of 6+ is just one example; it is also possible for seismic intensity 7 or M7, and although the accuracy rate is significantly lower, it is also possible for weaker earthquakes such as a seismic intensity of 5+.

[0042] Earthquakes may occur several times in a single day, or may occur several days apart. In this embodiment, if the time interval between earthquake occurrence dates and times is within 30 days, which is one lunar cycle, multiple earthquake occurrences are treated as one period. For example, if earthquakes occur on March 1st and March 31st, they are considered to be the same earthquake and are treated as one period, while if earthquakes occur on March 1st and April 1st, they are considered to be different earthquakes and are treated as two periods.

[0043] The hit rate and the like in this embodiment are calculated as follows: Hit rate (A+D) / N x 100 Hit rate when earthquake occurs: A / (A+C) x 100 Hit rate when earthquake does not occur: D / (B+D) x 100 Hit rate for earthquake prediction: (A+D) / N x 100 Miss rate: B / N x 100 Miss rate: C / N x 100 Capture rate: A / (A+B) x 100 Match rate: A / (A+C) x 100

[0044] 4. Earthquake Prediction Step S4 (Prediction of Future Earthquake Occurrence) Next, from the entire prediction period for which prediction is performed, a period in which all parameters, 1P through 57P in this embodiment, fall within the earthquake occurrence range is extracted, and a specific future date is obtained. This date becomes the predicted date for which an earthquake may occur. This period corresponds to past A + C, and the probability of an earthquake occurring is estimated to be the earthquake occurrence accuracy rate: A / (A + C) x 100. However, after the date has passed, the accuracy rate will be revised as the accuracy / inaccuracy results are updated. Furthermore, while it is preferable for all parameters, from 1P through 57P and 58P, to fall within the earthquake occurrence range, the number of such periods can be determined at the discretion of the forecaster, for purposes such as extending the prediction period to ensure reliable predictions.

[0045] In this embodiment, a period in which one or more parameters do not fall within the range of an earthquake occurrence is extracted from the entire prediction period for which predictions are made. This period corresponds to the no-earthquake prediction period, where the past accuracy rate for no-earthquake occurrences is D / (B+D) x 100, but the accuracy rate will be revised as the accuracy and non-acceptance results are updated after the deadline has passed. Note that, while it is preferable to have one or more parameters that do not fall within the range of an earthquake occurrence, the number can be determined at the discretion of the forecaster, for purposes such as extending the prediction deadline to ensure reliable predictions.

[0046] If the above excerpts are to be made on a computer, it is preferable to extract the excerpts for the relevant period in various languages ​​such as Excel or Phython. It is also possible to use astronomical information on celestial bodies used for prediction during the past data collection period and the prediction period as a data set for AI machine learning or deep learning, and extract the data using AI.

[0047] This method is based on a confusion matrix, and replaces "precipitation" in the weather forecast accuracy rate listed on the Japan Meteorological Agency's website with "occurrence of an earthquake of the predicted magnitude."

[0048] Next, an embodiment of the earthquake prediction method of the present invention will be described. Astronomical information was collected for two earthquake prediction target areas: Japan and the area near the west coast of the United States (astronomical information collection step S1). Parameters 1P to 57P were then determined for each area (parameter acquisition step S2). Next, the earthquake occurrence range during the past data collection period and the entire range during the past data collection period were determined for each parameter. In this case, the parameters for earthquakes of seismic intensity 7 and 6+ or higher occurring in Japan, and for earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher occurring near the west coast of the United States, were determined as the earthquake occurrence range (earthquake area identification step S3).

[0049] Below, we will explain each parameter and the range of each parameter when an earthquake of the target earthquake intensity occurs. In the following figures, whether each figure represents the sun, earth, moon, or planet, and the explanation of the coordinate direction will be omitted as appropriate in the case of similar figures.

[0050] (Influence of the Moon) First, the parameters of the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on the Earth will be described. Figure 6 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in the parameters and an explanation of the parameters when the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on the Earth is used as a parameter. Note that in the following figures, if a single figure such as Figure 6 or Figure 7 contains similar figures such as (a), (b), etc., the explanation of "Earth," "Sun," "Planet," "x(+)," and "y(+)" may be given only in (a) and omitted from (b) onwards.

[0051] [Parameter 1] Figure 6(a) shows the coordinates used in Parameter 1 and an explanation of Parameter 1. (Coordinates) In a mathematical coordinate system (x-y coordinates with the right side of the horizontal axis x being + and the top side of the vertical axis y being +) with the Earth as the origin when the Earth's northern hemisphere is viewed from above, the coordinates are fixed so that the position of the sun is always 90 degrees (y+ direction) (geocentric coordinates). (Parameter explanation) The "maximum value of the y+ component" of the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on the Earth in geocentric coordinates. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 9.4 x 10^19 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or greater: 1.8 x 10^20 or less M7 or greater near the west coast of the United States: 2.0 x 10^20 or less The unit of the parameter range is F = GMm / R^2, based on the law of universal gravitation. Here, G = 6.67428 x 10^-11 x m^3 x Kg^-1 x S^-2, mass M and m are in kg, and distance R is m (meters).

[0052] [Parameter 2] Figure 6(b) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 2 and an explanation of parameter 2. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) "Maximum value of the y-component" of the gravitational force that the moon exerts on the Earth, on geocentric coordinates (Parameter range when an earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.9x10^19 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.1x10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.9x10^20 or less

[0053] [Parameter 3] Fig. 6(c) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 3 and an explanation of parameter 3. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) "Maximum value of the x+ component" of the gravitational force that the moon exerts on the earth, on geocentric coordinates (Parameter range when an earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.3x10^20 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.3x10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.8x10^20 or less

[0054] [Parameter 4] Figure 6(d) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 4 and an explanation of parameter 4. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Parameter explanation) "Maximum value of the x-component" of the gravitational force that the moon exerts on the Earth, on geocentric coordinates (Parameter range when an earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 2.0x10^20 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.0x10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.9x10^20 or less

[0055] (Influence of Planets) Next, the gravitational force exerted by each planet on the Earth will be described as a parameter. Fig. 7 is a diagram showing coordinates used in the parameters and an explanation of the parameters when the gravitational force exerted by each planet on the Earth is used as a parameter.

[0056] It should be noted that the gravitational forces exerted on Earth from each planet do not cancel out if they are in opposite directions. In other words, the y+ component and y- component do not cancel out, and the x+ component and x- component do not cancel out. The reason for this is that, for example, suppose gravitational forces are acting on Earth from planet A on the y+ side and planet B on the x- side. In that case, if planet A and planet B have the same mass and are the same distance from Earth, then when the gravitational forces from planet A and planet B cancel out on Earth, the result becomes zero, which gives the mistaken impression that there is no numerical effect on Earth. However, in reality, the Earth is being pulled in the directions of planet A and planet B. For this reason, the y+ component does not cancel out with the Y- component, and the effect of only the y+ component can be examined.

[0057] [Parameter 5] Fig. 7(a) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 5 and an explanation of parameter 5. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) "Maximum value of the y+ component" on geocentric coordinates of the gravitational forces exerted on the Earth by planets in the solar system (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 9.2 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.2 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 9.8 x 10^17 or less

[0058] [Parameter 6] Figure 7(b) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 6 and an explanation of parameter 6. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "maximum value of the y-component" in geocentric coordinates is found from the gravitational forces exerted on the Earth by the planets in the solar system, and anything below this is set as the range when an earthquake occurs. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 9.7 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.0 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.3 x 10^18 or less

[0059] [Parameter 7] Figure 7(c) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 7 and an explanation of parameter 7. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "maximum value of the x+ component" on geocentric coordinates is found from the gravitational forces exerted on the Earth by the planets in the solar system, and anything below this is set as the range when an earthquake occurs. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 6.1 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.4 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.1 x 10^17 or less

[0060] [Parameter 8] Figure 7(d) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 8 and an explanation of parameter 8. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "maximum value of the x-component" in geocentric coordinates is found from the gravitational forces exerted on the Earth by the planets in the solar system, and anything below this is set as the range when an earthquake occurs. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 1.5x10^18 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.5x10^18 or less (Reflects 1 / 1 earthquake response) M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.3x10^18 or less

[0061] [Parameter 9] Figure 7(e) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 9 and an explanation of parameter 9. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "maximum value of the |y+|+|y-|+|x+|+|x-| component" in geocentric coordinates of the gravitational forces exerted on the Earth by the planets in the solar system, that is, the sum of parameters 5 to 8, is found, and anything below this is set as the range when an earthquake occurs. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.9x10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.4x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.7x10^18 or less

[0062] Parameters 10, 11, 12, and 13 are values ​​obtained by dividing one of the y+, y-, x+, and x- components of the gravitational force from the Moon by the gravitational force from the solar system planets in the same direction. Figure 8 shows the coordinates used in parameters 10, 11, 12, and 13, as well as an explanation of the parameters. In all directions, the gravitational force of the Moon is overwhelmingly greater than the gravitational force from the solar system planets. However, the stronger the earthquake, the smaller the difference tends to be.

[0063] [Parameter 10] Fig. 8(a) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 10 and an explanation of parameter 10. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "y+ component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 1, divided by the "y+ component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 5. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 300 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 500 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 3800 or less

[0064] [Parameter 11] Figure 8(b) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 11 and an explanation of parameter 11. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "y-component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 2, divided by the "y-component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 6. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 14,000 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: The denominator may be 0, making comparison impossible Near the west coast of the United States, M7 or more: Similar

[0065] [Parameter 12] Fig. 8(c) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 12 and an explanation of parameter 12. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "x+ component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 3, divided by the "x+ component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 7. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 8100 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 8100 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 17000 or less

[0066] [Parameter 13] Fig. 8(d) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 13 and an explanation of parameter 13. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "x-component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 4, divided by the "x-component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 8. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 4900 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 64000 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 5000 or less

[0067] Parameters 14, 15, 16, and 17 are values ​​obtained by dividing one of the y+, y-, x+, and x- components of the gravitational force from the Moon by the gravitational force in the opposite direction from the planets in the solar system. Figure 9 shows the coordinates used in parameters 14, 15, 16, and 17, and an explanation of the parameters.

[0068] [Parameter 14] Figure 9(a) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 14 and an explanation of parameter 14. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The value obtained by dividing the "y+ component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 1, by the "y- component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 6. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1500 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: Denominator may be 0, making comparison impossible Near the west coast of the United States, magnitude 7 or more: similar

[0069] [Parameter 15] Fig. 9(b) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 15 and an explanation of parameter 15. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "y-component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 2, divided by the "y+component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 5. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1000 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 5000 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2000 or less

[0070] [Parameter 16] Fig. 9(c) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 16 and an explanation of parameter 16. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "x+ component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 3, divided by the "x- component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 8. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 200 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 900 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 7000 or less

[0071] [Parameter 17] Fig. 9(d) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 17 and an explanation of parameter 17. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) The "x-component" of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth, shown in parameter 4, divided by the "x+component" of the gravitational force exerted by the planets in the solar system on the earth, shown in parameter 7. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 3200 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 3600 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 5000 or less

[0072] [Parameter 18] Figure 10 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 18 and an explanation of parameter 18. Here, each component is canceled out and corresponds to the length of the hypotenuse of the "synthetic force." (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Synthetic forces when the sum of the y± components ((y+) + (y-)) of the planets in the solar system (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune) is set to ysum and the sum of the x± components ((x+) + (x-)) is set to xsum: (ysum^2 + xsum^2)^(1 / 2) Note that here the (y+) component and the (y-) component are canceled out, and the (y+) component and the (y-) component are canceled out. (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.5 x 10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.9 x 10^18 or less Near the west coast of the United States, M7 or more: 2.1 x 10^18 or less

[0073] Parameters 19 and 20 are values ​​that indicate the relationship when the moon is in the opposite position to the gravitational force of the entire planet. Figure 11 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameters 19 and 20, and an explanation of the parameters.

[0074] [Parameter 19] Fig. 11(a) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 19 and an explanation of parameter 19. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Condition (A): The y+ component of the gravitational force of the solar system planets on the Earth when the y+ component of the gravitational force of the Moon on the Earth is 0 (the Moon is in the third or fourth quadrant), or Condition (B): The y- component of the gravitational force of the solar system planets on the Earth when the y+ component of the gravitational force of the Moon on the Earth is + (the Moon is in the first or second quadrant). (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Range when an earthquake occurs Japan seismic intensity 7: 9.7x10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.2x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.3x10^18 or less

[0075] [Parameter 20] Condition (A): The x+ component of the gravitational force of the moon on the Earth, when the x+ component is 0 (the moon is in the second or third quadrant), or Condition (B): The x- component of the gravitational force of the moon on the Earth, when the x+ component is + (the moon is in the first or fourth quadrant). (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.5x10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.5x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 7.6x10^17 or less

[0076] [Parameter 21] Fig. 12 is a diagram showing coordinates used in parameter 21 and an explanation of parameter 21. Parameter 21 is the sum of the gravitational forces of the planets in the solar system in the same quadrant as the quadrant in which the Moon is located, in geocentric coordinates. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Condition (A): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0 (Moon is in the third quadrant), "y-" + "x-" of the x and y components of the sum of the gravitational forces of the planets exerts on the Earth, or Condition (B): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is other than 0 (Moon is in the fourth quadrant), "y-" + "x+" of the x and y components of the sum of the gravitational forces of the planets exerts on the Earth, or Condition (C): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is non-zero, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is non-zero (Moon is in the second quadrant), then "y+" + "x-" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth, or Condition (D): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is non-zero, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is non-zero (Moon is in the first quadrant), then "y+" + "x+" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.7 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.0 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.4 x 10^18 or less

[0077] 13 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 22 and an explanation of parameter 22. Parameter 22 is the sum of the gravitational forces of the planets in the solar system in the geocentric coordinate system, in the quadrant in which the moon is located and in the quadrant that is point-symmetric with respect to the Earth. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Condition (A): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0 (Moon is in the third quadrant), then "y+" + "x+" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth. Condition (B): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is not 0 (Moon is in the fourth quadrant), then "y+" + "x-" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth. Condition (C): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is not 0, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0 (Moon is in the second quadrant), then "y-" + "x+" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth. Condition (D): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the Moon exerts on the Earth is non-zero, and "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the Moon exerts on the Earth is non-zero (the Moon is in the first quadrant), "y-" + "x-" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.6 x 10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.6 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.5 x 10^18 or less

[0078] [Parameter 23] Fig. 14 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 23 and an explanation of parameter 23. Fig. 14 shows an example in which the moon is in the first quadrant. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Parameter 23 is the value obtained by dividing the gravitational force (fraction) of the solar system planets in the same quadrant as the moon by the total gravitational force of the solar system planets. In other words, parameter 21 / parameter 9. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 0.29 or less, between 0.35 and 0.54, 0.81 or more Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 0.33 or less, between 0.36 and 0.64, or 0.7 or more Near the west coast of the United States, magnitude 7 or more: 0.34 or less, 0.6 or more

[0079] [Parameter 24] Fig. 15 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 24 and an explanation of parameter 24. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Condition (A): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth is 0, "y-" of the x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth... (1) "y-" of the x and y components of the total of the gravitational forces exerted by each planet on the earth... (2), the result is (1) / (2) Condition (B): When "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth is other than 0, "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by the moon on the earth... (1) "y+" of the x and y components of the total of the gravitational forces exerted by each planet on the earth... (2), the result is (1) / (2) (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 14,000 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: The denominator may be 0, making comparison impossible Near the west coast of the United States, magnitude 7 or more: similar

[0080] [Parameter 25] Parameter 25 is a parameter that examines the relationship when the gravitational forces of the moon and all planets are in the same direction. Fig. 16 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 25 and an explanation of parameter 25. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Condition (A): When "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the Moon exerts on the Earth is 0, then "x-" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the Moon exerts on the Earth... (1) "x-" of the x and y components of the total of the gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth... (2) When set to (1) / (2) Condition (B): When "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the Moon exerts on the Earth is not 0, then "x+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the Moon exerts on the Earth... (1) "x+" of the x and y components of the total of the gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth... (2) When set to (1) / (2) (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 8,000 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 64,000 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 17,000 or less

[0081] The following parameters 26, 27, 28, and 29 are calculated by subtracting the gravitational force of the solar system planets that is in the same direction as the gravitational force of the moon from the gravitational force of the moon, based on the assumption that the gravitational force of the solar system planets affects the gravitational force of the moon. Figure 17 shows the coordinates used in parameters 26, 27, 28, and 29, and explains the parameters.

[0082] [Parameter 26] Fig. 17(a) is a diagram showing coordinates used in parameter 26 and an explanation of parameter 26. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) When the moon is in the first or second quadrant (= when it is in y+) (including x=0 at this time), "y+" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the moon exerts on the earth... (1) "y+" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the earth... (2) (1) - (2) when the gravitational force of the moon and the gravitational force of the entire planet are in y+ (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 9.4 x 10^19 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.8 x 10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.0 x 10^20 or less

[0083] [Parameter 27] Fig. 17(b) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 27 and an explanation of parameter 27. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) When the moon is in the third or fourth quadrant (= when it is in y-) (including x=0 at this time), "y-" of the x and y components of the gravitational force that the moon exerts on the earth... (1) "y-" of the x and y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the earth... (2) In other words, (1)-(2) when the gravitational force of the moon and the gravitational force of the entire planet are in y- (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.9x10^19 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.1x10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.9x10^20 or less

[0084] [Parameter 28] Fig. 17(c) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 28 and an explanation of parameter 28. (Coordinates) Geocentric coordinates (Explanation of parameters) When the moon is in the first or fourth quadrant (= when it is in x+) (In this case, y=0 is included) "x+" of the xy components of the gravitational force that the moon exerts on the earth... (1) "x+" of the xy components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the earth... (2) (1)-(2) in this case In other words, (1)-(2) when the gravitational force of the moon and the gravitational force of the entire planet are in x+ (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.3x10^20 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.3x10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.8x10^20 or less

[0085] [Parameter 29] Fig. 17(d) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 29 and an explanation of parameter 29. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) When the moon is in the second or third quadrant (= when it is in x-) (including y=0 in this case) "x-" of the xy components of the gravitational force that the moon exerts on the earth... (1) "x-" of the xy components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the earth... (2) (1)-(2) in this case In other words, (1)-(2) when the gravitational force of the moon and the gravitational force of the entire planet are in x- (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 2.0x10^20 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.0x10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.9x10^20 or less

[0086] [Parameter 30] Parameter 30 is the sum of parameters 26 to 29. (Coordinates) Earth's center coordinates (Parameter description) It is the sum of parameters 26 + 27 + 28 + 29. (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 2.3 x 10^20 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.3 x 10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.3 x 10^20 or less

[0087] The parameters 31, 32, and 33 are the sum of the gravitational force of the moon and the gravitational force of the planet facing the moon. FIG. 18 is a diagram showing coordinates used in the parameters 31, 32, and 33, and an explanation of the parameters 31, 32, and 33.

[0088] [Parameter 31] Fig. 18(a) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 31 and an explanation of parameter 31. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Condition (A): The sum of the scalar quantities of the gravitational force of the moon when the moon is in y- and the gravitational force of the planet when the planet is in y+, and Condition (B): The sum of the scalar quantities of the gravitational force of the moon when the moon is in y+ and the gravitational force of the planet when the planet is in y-. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.9 x 10^20 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.1 x 10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.0 x 10^20 or less

[0089] [Parameter 32] Fig. 18(b) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 32 and an explanation of parameter 32. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Condition (A): The sum of the scalar quantities of the gravitational force of the moon when the moon is in x- and the gravitational force of the planet when the planet is in x+, and Condition (B): The sum of the scalar quantities of the gravitational force of the moon when the moon is in x+ and the gravitational force of the planet when the planet is in x- (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 2.0x10^20 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.0x10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.9x10^20 or less

[0090] [Parameter 33] Fig. 18(c) is a diagram illustrating the parameter 33. (Coordinates) Earth-center coordinates (Parameter description) Parameter 33 is the sum of parameters 31 and 32. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 2.3 x 10^20 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 2.3 x 10^20 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.3 x 10^20 or less

[0091] 19 is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameters 34, 35, 36, 37, and 38, and an explanation of parameters 34, 35, 36, and 37. Half of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by planets in the solar system comes from Jupiter. The influence of the gravitational force of Jupiter alone was investigated.

[0092] [Parameter 34] Figure 19(a) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 34 and an explanation of parameter 34. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Parameter 34 is the Y+ component of Jupiter's gravitational force when the angle ω between the line connecting Jupiter and the Earth and the x-axis + side is 0°≦ω≦180°, with the x-axis + side being 0° and the y-axis + being 90°. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 8.4x10^17 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 9.6x10^17 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 8.2x10^17 or less

[0093] [Parameter 35] Figure 19(b) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 35 and an explanation of parameter 35. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Parameter 35 is the Y-component of Jupiter's gravitational force when the angle ω between the line connecting Jupiter and the Earth and the x-axis + side is 180°<ω<360°, with the x-axis + side being 0° and the y-axis + being 90°. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 9.2x10^17 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.9x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.1x10^18 or less

[0094] [Parameter 36] Figure 19(c) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 36 and an explanation of parameter 36. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Parameter 36 is the X+ component of Jupiter's gravitational force when the angle ω between the line connecting Jupiter and the Earth and the x+ side of the x-axis is 0°≦ω≦90° or 270°≦ω<360°, with the x+ side being 0° and the y+ side being 90°. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 5.1x10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.3x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.9x10^18 or less

[0095] [Parameter 37] Figure 19(d) is a diagram showing the coordinates used in parameter 36 and an explanation of parameter 36. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Parameter 37 is the X-component of Jupiter's gravitational force when the angle ω between the line connecting Jupiter and the Earth and the x-axis + side is 90°≦ω<270°, with the x-axis + side being 0° and the y-axis + being 90°. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 1.4x10^18 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.4x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.3x10^18 or less

[0096] [Parameter 38] Fig. 19(e) is a diagram showing coordinates used in parameter 36 and an explanation of parameter 36. (Coordinates) Earth's center coordinates (Explanation of parameters) Parameter 38 is the total value of parameters 34, 35, 36, and 37. (Parameter range when earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 1.7x10^18 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.9x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.2x10^18 or less

[0097] [Parameter 39] Not shown. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Parameter explanation) When the coordinates are changed, the X-axis 0° direction (direction on July 2nd) of the AbDg coordinates (XY coordinates) is at what degree of the Earth-centered coordinates (xy coordinates), and we thought that this might have some relationship to the occurrence of an earthquake. (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 101° or less, 150° to 216° or less, 336° or more Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 101° or less, 150° to 216° or less, 237° or more (Reflects 1 / 1 earthquake) M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 147° to 293° or less, 330° or more

[0098] [Parameter 40] Not shown. (Coordinates) Earth-centered coordinates (Parameter description) The sine value of the value of parameter 39, i.e., sin [value of parameter 39]. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: -0.55 or more and -0.1 or less, 0.23 or more and 0.42 or less, 0.86 or more Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: -0.87 or less, -0.58 or more and 0.42 or less, 0.69 or more M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: -0.85 or less, -0.33 or more and 0.32 or less

[0099] (AbDg Coordinates) The shortest distance between the Earth and the Sun in a year is said to be not the winter solstice, but early January, and fluctuates slightly. If we assume that this is January 2nd and that day is 180° on the xy coordinate system, then the 0° position would be July 2nd. Using this as a basis, we divide each quarter into 92, 91, 90 (91), and 92 days, for a total of 365 (366) days, and if the angles traveled in the Earth's orbit are "α = 90 / 92," "β = 91 / 90," and "γ = 90 / 90," then the angle on July 4th, for example, would be 2α. This is called AbDg Coordinates (XY Coordinates). Figure 1 shows AbDg Coordinates (XY Coordinates).

[0100] [Parameter 41] Parameter 41 will be explained using Figure 1. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 41 is the angle of the Earth on the AbDg coordinates at the time of the earthquake occurrence. If the angle is, for example, 43°, it is preferable to add a tolerance of ±5°, that is, to set the range at the time of the earthquake occurrence as 38-48°. However, if the number of earthquakes is low, such as a seismic intensity of 7, the tolerance range may be increased at the discretion of the forecaster. (Parameter ranges when earthquakes of target intensity occur) Japan seismic intensity 7: 55° to 120°, 169° to 294° (see the position of the moon in the black circle in Figure 1) Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or higher: 30° or lower, 60° to 120°, 150° to 230°, 240° to 310°, 330° to 360° (see the position of the moon in the white circle in Figure 1) M7 or higher near the west coast of the United States: 12° or lower, 67° to 113°, 262° to 290°, 332° or higher

[0101] [Parameter 42] Parameter 42 will be explained with reference to Figure 3. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 42 is the angle of the moon relative to the center of the earth on the AbDg coordinate system at the time of the earthquake. As shown in Figure 3, earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher in Japan occur when the moon is at an angle other than around 90° or 270°. (Parameter range when earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 49° or less, 134° to 240° or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 80° or less, 127° to 240° or less, 280° to 360° or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 13° or less, 92° to 113° or less, 199° to 263° or less, 328° or more

[0102] [Parameter 43] Figure 20 is a diagram explaining parameter 43. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 43 is a numerical value that indicates the influence of the moon in AbDg coordinates. Using the formula Cos(90 + (monthly rate x 12.0805) - parameter 39), the calculation was converted to AbDg coordinates, and the influence of the moon in the direction of July 2nd at the time of the earthquake was expressed in COS. The closer the absolute value is to 1, the more likely there is a relationship. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: -078 or less, -0.17 to 0.04 or less, 0.43 or more Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: -0.78 or less, -0.66 to -0.45 or less, -0.17 to 0.15 or less, 0.38 to 0.63 or less, 0.89 or more M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: -0.39 or less, -0.1 or more

[0103] [Parameter 44] Figure 21 is a diagram explaining parameter 44. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 44 is a value indicating the degree of influence of Jupiter in AbDg coordinates. The gravitational influence that Earth receives from the planets in the solar system is mostly from Jupiter, and this parameter indicates the influence of Jupiter alone. When the angle of Jupiter in geocentric coordinates is Jdeg, the formula SIN (39P - Jdeg) was used to convert to AbDg coordinates, and the degree of influence of Jupiter's direction on July 2nd at the time of the earthquake was expressed in SIN. The closer to 0, the more likely there is a relationship. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: -0.89 or less, 0.42 or more Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 0.08 or less, 0.27 or more M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: -0.73 or less, 0.29 to 0.57 or less, 0.85 or more

[0104] 22 is a diagram illustrating the parameters 45, 46, 47, and 48. The parameters 45, 46, 47, and 48 are the X and Y components of the total gravitational force that each planet exerts on the Earth.

[0105] [Parameter 45] Figure 22(a) is a diagram explaining parameter 45. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 45 is a numerical value that indicates the degree of influence of Y+ of the planets in the solar system in AbDg coordinates. Y+ on AbDg coordinates was calculated using the formula SIN(39P) x 5P. (Parameter range when earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 6.0 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 7.6 x 10^17 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 4.5 x 10^16 or less

[0106] [Parameter 46] Figure 22(b) is a diagram explaining parameter 46. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 46 is a numerical value that indicates the degree of influence of Y- of the planets in the solar system in AbDg coordinates. Y- on AbDg coordinates was calculated using the formula SIN(39P) x 6P. (Parameter range when earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 3.6 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 3.6 x 10^17 or less (Reflects 1 / 1 earthquake) M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 5.0 x 10^17 or less

[0107] [Parameter 47] Figure 22(c) is a diagram explaining parameter 47. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 47 is a numerical value that indicates the influence of X+ of the solar system planets in AbDg coordinates. X+ on AbDg coordinates was calculated using the formula SIN(39P) x 7P. (Parameter range when earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 5.9 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 5.9 x 10^17 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 4.7 x 10^16 or less

[0108] [Parameter 48] Figure 22(d) is a diagram explaining parameter 48. (Coordinates) AbDg coordinates (Parameter explanation) Parameter 48 is a numerical value that indicates the influence of X- of the planets in the solar system in AbDg coordinates. X- on AbDg coordinates was calculated using the formula SIN(39P) x 8P. (Parameter range when earthquake of target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.5 x 10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.5 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 9.1 x 10^16 or less

[0109] [Parameter 49] Fig. 23 is a diagram for explaining parameter 49. Using the geocentric coordinates and the AbDg coordinates, the maximum value of the y component of the gravitational force of the solar system planets on the AbDg coordinates was finally found. Let ysum be the (y+) + (y-) component of the total x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by each planet on Earth at its respective position in the solar system (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune), and let xsum be the (x+) + (x-) component of the total x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by each planet on Earth. Then, arctan (ysum / xsum) is (1). In AbDg coordinates, when Earth is in the first or fourth quadrant, the daily angular velocity α is (90 / 92) degrees; when Earth is in the second quadrant, the daily angular velocity β is (90 / 91) degrees; and when Earth is in the third quadrant, the daily angular velocity γ is (90 / 90) degrees. For example, July 4th is 0 + 2α = 1.958 degrees. Using this, the Earth angle (2) on the AbDg coordinate system was defined based on the date. At this time, (ysum^2 + xsum^2)^1 / 2x(sin((1) + (2)) + 90)) is parameter 49. Since AbDg coordinate data does not exist in the open data, when data on AbDg coordinates is required, it is necessary to convert it from geocentric coordinates to AbDg by calculation. Here, we investigated the y^2 of the vectors of all planets in the solar system that affect the Earth on AbDg coordinates. (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target earthquake intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.4 x 10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.4 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.0 x 10^18 or less

[0110] [Parameter 50] Fig. 24 is a diagram for explaining the parameter 50. Using the geocentric coordinates and the AbDg coordinates, the maximum value of the x component of the gravitational force of the planets in the solar system on the AbDg coordinates was finally found. In geocentric coordinates, let ysum be the (y+) + (y-) component of the total x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by each planet on Earth (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) at each position, and let xsum be the (x+) + (x-) component of the total x and y components of the gravitational force exerted by each planet on Earth. Then, let's calculate arctan (ysum / xsum)... (1). In AbDg coordinates, when Earth is in the first or fourth quadrant, the daily angular velocity α is (90 / 92) degrees; when Earth is in the second quadrant, the daily angular velocity β is (90 / 91) degrees; and when Earth is in the third quadrant, the daily angular velocity γ is (90 / 90) degrees. Then, July 4th is 0 + 2α = 1.958 degrees. Using this, we defined the Earth angle (2) on the AbDg coordinate system from the date. At that time, (ysum^2 + xsum^2)^1 / 2 x (cos((1) + (2) + 90))^2 (Parameter range at the time of occurrence of earthquake of target earthquake intensity) Japan seismic intensity 7: 6.4 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.8 x 10^18 or less Near the west coast of the United States, M7 or more: 1.6 x 10^18 or less

[0111] [Parameter 51] (Explanation of Parameter) Fig. 25 is a diagram for explaining the parameter 51. The total vectors required for all planets on the Earth origin were converted into AbDg coordinates, and only the Y+ component was extracted.・When AbDg = 0, same as 7P...see Figure 25(a) ・When 0 < AbDg < 90, (6P + 7P) x sin(AbDg)^2...see Figure 25(b) ・When AbDg = 90, same as 6P...see Figure 25(c) ・When 90 < AbDg < 180, (6P + 8P) x sin(AbDg)^2...see Figure 25(d) ・When AbDg = 180, same as 8P...see Figure 25(e) ・When 180 < AbDg < 270, (5P + 8P) x sin(AbDg)^2...see Figure 25(f) ・When AbDg = 270, same as 5P...see Figure 25(g) ・When 270 < AbDg < 360 (5P + 7P) x sin(AbDg)^2...See Figure 25(h) (Parameter range at the time of occurrence of earthquake of target earthquake intensity) Japan seismic intensity 7: 9.2 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.1 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.2 x 10^18 or less

[0112] [Parameter 52] (Explanation of Parameter) Fig. 26 is a diagram for explaining the parameter 52. The total vectors required for all planets on the Earth origin were converted into AbDg coordinates, and only the Y-component was extracted.・When AbDg = 0, same as 8P...see Figure 26(a) ・When 0 < AbDg < 90, 5P + 8P x sin(AbDg)^2...see Figure 26(b) ・When AbDg = 90, same as 5P...see Figure 26(c) ・When 90 < AbDg < 180, 5P + 7P x sin(AbDg)^2...see Figure 26(d) ・When AbDg = 180, same as 7P...see Figure 26(e) ・When 180 < AbDg < 270, 6P + 7P x sin(AbDg)^2...see Figure 26(f) ・When AbDg = 270, same as 6P...see Figure 26(g) ・When 270 < AbDg < 360 6P + 8P x sin (AbDg)^2...See Figure 26 (h) (Parameter range at the time of occurrence of earthquake of target earthquake intensity) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.6 x 10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.6 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 9.4 x 10^17 or less

[0113] [Parameter 53] (Explanation of Parameter) Fig. 27 is a diagram for explaining the parameter 53. The total vectors required for all planets on the Earth origin were converted into AbDg coordinates, and only the X+ component was extracted.・When AbDg = 0, same as 6P...see Figure 27(a) ・When 0 < AbDg < 90, 6P + 8P x Cos(AbDg)^2...see Figure 27(b) ・When AbDg = 90, same as 8P...see Figure 27(c) ・When 90 < AbDg < 180, 5P + 8P x Cos(AbDg)^2...see Figure 27(d) ・When AbDg = 180, same as 5P...see Figure 27(e) ・When 180 < AbDg < 270, 5P + 7P x Cos(AbDg)^2...see Figure 27(f) ・When AbDg = 270, same as 7P...see Figure 27(g) ・When 270 < AbDg < 360 6P + 7P x Cos (AbDg)^2...See Figure 27 (h) (Parameter range at the time of occurrence of earthquake of target earthquake intensity) Japan seismic intensity 7: 1.6 x 10^18 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 1.9 x 10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 2.0 x 10^18 or less

[0114] [Parameter 54] (Explanation of Parameter) Fig. 28 is a diagram for explaining the parameter 54. Each sum vector required for all planets on the Earth origin was converted into AbDg coordinates, and only the X-component was extracted.・When AbDg = 0, same as 5P...see Figure 28(a) ・When 0 < AbDg < 90, 5P + 7P x Cos(AbDg)^2...see Figure 28(b) ・When AbDg = 90, same as 7P...see Figure 28(c) ・When 90 < AbDg < 180, 6P + 7P x Cos(AbDg)^2...see Figure 28(d) ・When AbDg = 180, same as 6P...see Figure 28(e) ・When 180 < AbDg < 270, 6P + 8P x Cos(AbDg)^2...see Figure 28(f) ・When AbDg = 270, same as 8P...see Figure 28(g) ・When 270 < AbDg < 360 5P + 8P x Cos (AbDg)^2...See Figure 28 (h) (Parameter range at the time of occurrence of earthquake of target earthquake intensity) Japan seismic intensity 7: 3.8 x 10^17 or less Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 7.9 x 10^17 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 1.3 x 10^18 or less

[0115] [Parameter 55] (Parameter description) The altitude of the moon at the latitude and longitude of Tokyo when the earthquake occurs. (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target intensity occurs) Japan seismic intensity 7: 42° or less, or 65° or more Japan seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 42° or less, or 65° or more M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: 38° or less, or 51° or more Since the hypothesis is that the gravitational forces of celestial body X, the sun, the earth, all planets in the solar system, and the moon are related to the occurrence of earthquakes, the angle of the moon's gravitational force exerted on the region is an important factor. The components of the moon's gravitational force change depending on the latitude of the region, so the altitude of the moon at its noon in Tokyo was used as a reference.

[0116] [Parameter 56] (Parameter Description) The distance between the sun and the earth at the time of an earthquake is within the coefficient a range, assuming the distance between the sun and the earth is 149,597,870,700 m x 1.017 = 152,141,034,501 m = 1a. (Parameter Range for Earthquakes of Target Intensity) Japan Seismic Intensity 7: 0.93 or higher Japan Seismic Intensity 6.5 or higher: 0.93 or higher M7 or higher along the west coast of the US: 0.93 or higher For strong earthquakes like magnitude 7, the coefficient is 0.95 or higher 6 / 7 times, and for earthquakes of magnitude 6+, the coefficient is 0.93 or higher. Distance is closely related to gravity and is an important parameter. Note: The January 1st earthquake was magnitude 7 and had a coefficient of 0.93. This can be expressed as "the proportion of 0.95 is high." This parameter is less necessary. It may be omitted in the future at the discretion of the forecaster. See 0038 and 0039.

[0117] [Parameter 57] (Parameter description) The relative number of sunspots, in which range: 0-70, 70-120, or 121 or more. (Parameter range when an earthquake of target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: 70 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: 120 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the US: 70 or less Sunspots generate strong magnetic fields. It is unclear whether magnetism is directly related, but statistically, seismic intensity 7 occurs when the number of sunspots is 70 or less, and seismic intensity 6+ occurs when the number of sunspots is 120 or less. Even weaker earthquakes, such as intensity 6-, occur when the number of sunspots is greater, so there is a possibility that there is a connection.

[0118] [Parameter 58] (Parameter Description) First, coordinates are converted into mathematical coordinates using the astronomical direction and altitude in hourly increments published by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The conversion method is to use the horizontal plane of the survey area as the XZ plane and the vertical plane as the Y axis (altitude), and then calculate the X and Y components of the tidal forces of the sun, moon, and planets in the solar system (from Mercury to Saturn). After that, the sums of these X and Y components in hourly increments, |Y+|+|Y-| and |X+|+|X-|, are used as the X and Y components of the tidal forces acting on the Earth.

[0119] However, in this embodiment, the horizontal X-axis force "X^2" is set as 1-Y^2 = X^2 unless otherwise specified due to the large number of target celestial bodies, and the east direction is treated as the horizontal direction of X+ and the west direction is treated as the horizontal direction of X-.

[0120] (Parameter range when an earthquake of the target intensity occurs) Japanese seismic intensity 7: |Y+|+|Y-|: 5.7x10^18 or less |X+|+X-|: 9.47x10^18 or less Japanese seismic intensity 6.5 or more: |Y+|+|Y-|: 7.72x10^18 or less |X+|+X-|: 9.05x10^18 or less M7 or more near the west coast of the United States: Not investigated

[0121] This is one of the tidal force conditions in the hypothesis that earthquakes are more likely to occur when certain conditions are met for tidal forces that change from moment to moment due to the Earth's rotation. In the embodiment of parameters 1 to 57, gravitational forces are the target, so they are calculated in hourly units (the same value for 24 hours on the same date). The step of identifying the earthquake range using only parameter 58 only removes from the earthquake occurrence range only a few hours out of the 24 hours of each day extracted by parameters 1 to 57, so the earthquake occurrence range does not decrease on a daily basis. In the future, by increasing the number of tidal force-related parameters, it is expected that it will be possible to remove from the earthquake occurrence range on a daily basis, and this is an example of a parameter that can be expected to be able to predict the time of an earthquake.

[0122] Next, we will explain the results of earthquake predictions in Japan and along the west coast of the United States based on these parameters 1P to 58P.

[0123] (Prediction of the occurrence of earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 in Japan) Astronomical information for Japan was collected from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2024 as the data collection period (astronomical information collection step S1). Based on the collected astronomical information, calculations and the like are performed to acquire various parameters (parameter acquisition step S2). The ranges of each parameter during the period when earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher occurred in Japan were determined as individual earthquake occurrence ranges. Then, the range where all parameters were within the individual earthquake occurrence ranges was determined as the earthquake occurrence range (earthquake range identification step S3).

[0124] Regarding earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 in Japan during the past data collection period, A: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 occurred within the earthquake occurrence zone, B: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 occurred outside the earthquake occurrence zone, C: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 did not occur within the earthquake occurrence zone, D: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 did not occur outside the earthquake occurrence zone, N: the total predicted number A+B+C+D is as follows.

[0125] A: Number of times that an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 occurred within the earthquake occurrence zone...6 times (considered to be a period in which it is possible to predict that an earthquake will occur) Even if multiple earthquakes occur within the same prediction period, this will be counted as 1. B: Number of times that an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 occurred outside the earthquake occurrence zone...0 times C: Number of times that an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 did not occur within the earthquake occurrence zone 5 times D: Number of times that an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 did not occur outside the earthquake occurrence zone 11 times (considered to be a period in which it is possible to predict that an earthquake will not occur) N: Total number of predictions A + B + C + D...22 times

[0126] From the above, based on the past data collection period, the accuracy rates of earthquake predictions of magnitude 7 in Japan are as follows: Accuracy rate (A + D) / N x 100.....77.3% Accuracy rate for "occurrence" A / (A + C) x 100.....54.5% Accuracy rate for "no occurrence" D / (B + D) x 100.....100.0% Miss rate B / N x 100.....0% Miss rate C / N x 100.....22.7% Capture rate A / (A + B) x 100.....100.0% Match rate A / (A + C) x 100.....54.5%

[0127] (Verification results of the above accuracy rate) Using the earthquake occurrence range identified as above, the earthquake occurrence forecast period, which is the period within the earthquake occurrence range during the verification period from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2024, is as follows: (1) January 17, 1995 (2) October 23, 2004 (3) September 14 to September 15, 2005 (4) October 28, 2006 (5) December 28, 2010 (6) March 11, 2011 (7) September 5, 2014 (8) April 14 to April 16, 2016 (9) September 2, 2017 (10) September 6, 2018 (11) January 1, 2024.

[0128] Of these, earthquakes actually occurred seven times during the six periods (1), (2), (6), (8), (10), and (11), but no earthquakes occurred during the five periods (3) to (5), (7), and (9). Therefore, the accuracy rate of the "occurrence" prediction was 54.5%.

[0129] (Future Prediction) Using the earthquake occurrence range identified as above, there was no period in the future earthquake prediction period from February 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 that fell within the range of occurrence of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7.

[0130] (Prediction of the occurrence of earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher in Japan) Astronomical information for Japan was collected from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2024 as the data collection period (astronomical information collection step S1). Based on the collected astronomical information, calculations and the like are performed to acquire various parameters (parameter acquisition step S2). The ranges of each parameter during the period when earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher occurred in Japan were determined as individual earthquake occurrence ranges. Then, the range where all parameters were within the individual earthquake occurrence ranges was determined as the earthquake occurrence range (earthquake range identification step S3).

[0131] Regarding earthquakes in Japan with a seismic intensity of 6+ over during the past data collection period, A: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6+ or over occurred within the earthquake occurrence zone, B: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6+ or over occurred outside the earthquake occurrence zone, C: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6+ or over did not occur within the earthquake occurrence zone, D: the number of times that earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6+ or over did not occur outside the earthquake occurrence zone, N: the total predicted number A+B+C+D is as follows.

[0132] A: Number of times that earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher occurred within the earthquake occurrence zone: 14 times (considered to be a period in which it is possible to predict that an earthquake will "occur") Note that although the number of occurrences is 24, even if multiple occurrences occur within the same prediction period, this is counted as one, so the total is 14. B: Number of times that earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher occurred outside the earthquake occurrence zone: 0 times C: Number of times that earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher did not occur within the earthquake occurrence zone: 51 times D: Number of times that earthquakes of seismic intensity 6 or higher did not occur outside the earthquake occurrence zone: 65 times (considered to be a period in which it is possible to predict that an earthquake will not "occur") N: Total number of predictions: A + B + C + D: 130 times

[0133] From the above, based on the past data collection period, the accuracy rates of earthquake predictions in Japan for earthquakes of intensity 6 or higher are as follows: Accuracy rate (A + D) / N x 100.....60.8% Accuracy rate for "occurrence" A / (A + C) x 100.....21.5% Accuracy rate for "no occurrence" D / (B + D) x 100.....100.0% Miss rate B / N x 100.....0% Miss rate C / N x 100.....39.2% Capture rate A / (A + B) x 100.....100.0% Match rate A / (A + C) x 100.....21.5%

[0134] (Verification results of the above accuracy rate) Using the earthquake occurrence range identified as above, the verification period from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2022, the earthquake occurrence forecast period that falls within the earthquake occurrence range, is as follows: (1) The period from January 13, 1995 to January 17, 1995; (2) The period from March 11, 1995 to March 13, 1995; (3) The period from July 8, 1995 to July 9, 1995; (4) The period from March 27, 1996 to March 29, 1996; (5) The period from February 15, 1997 to March 20, 1997; (6) The period from June 17, 1997 to June 19, 1997; (7) The period from March 10, 1998 to April 2, 1998. (8) the period from January 31, 1999 to February 13, 1999; (9) the period from April 22, 1999 to May 3, 1999; (10) July 2, 1999; (11) April 8, 2000; (12) June 5, 2000; (13) the period from October 6, 2000 to October 7, 2000; (14) May 7, 2001; (15) the period from October 3, 2002 to October 4, 2002; (16) the period from March 13, 2003 to April 19, 2003; (17) the period from July 4, 2003 to July 27, 2003; (18) the period from September 1, 2003 to October 6, 2003; (19) the period from April 2, 2004 to April 23, 2004; (20) the period from August 2, 2004 to October 23, 2004; (21) the period from April 26, 2005 to April 27, 2005; (22) the period from July 18, 2005 to October 21, 2005; (23) the period from March 9, 2006 to April 16, 2006; (24) the period from June 9, 2006 to July 21, 2006; (25) the period from September 20, 2006 to October 11, 2006. (26) The period from January 1, 2007 to January 31, 2007; (27) The period from March 25, 2007 to July 17, 2007; (28) The period from September 8, 2007 to October 21, 2007; and (29) The period from March 16, 2008 to March 18, 2008.(30) From June 14, 2008 to June 21, 2008; (31) From January 2, 2010 to February 13, 2010; (32) From March 20, 2010 to May 1, 2010; (33) From December 22, 2010 to June 29, 2011; (34) From March 11, 2012 to April 8, 2012; (35) August 29, 2012; (36) From April 13, 2013 to April 28, 2013; (37) From July 27, 2014 to September 30, 2014; (38) From March 27, 2015 to May 7, 2015; (39) From July 3, 2015 to July 4, 2015; (40) From September 18, 2015 to October 19, 2015; (41) From April 13, 2016 to April 24, 2016; (42) From July 20, 2016 to August 31, 2016; (43) October 18, 2016; (44) From July 4, 2017 to August 1, 2017; (45) September 2, 2017; (46) December 23, 2017; (47) May 1, 2018; (48) June 4, 2018; (49) From July 27, 2018 to July 30, 2018; (50) From September 6, 2018 to September 7, 2018; (51) From January 16, 2019 to January 19, 2019; (52) From March 17, 2019 to March 19, 2019; (53) From June 16, 2019 to July 20, 2019; (54) September 12, 2019; (55) From March 8, 2020 to April 2, 2020; (56) From August 29, 2020 to September 28, 2020; (57) February 13, 2021; (58) From March 20, 2021 to March 26, 2021; (59) June 23, 2021; (60) From March 9, 2022 to March 16, 2022; (61) From May 2, 2022 to May 4, 2022; (62) From February 5, 2023 to February 6, 2023; and (63) March 18, 2023.(64) The period from April 24, 2023 to July 1, 2023 and (65) the period ending January 1, 2024.

[0135] Of these, earthquakes actually occurred 24 times over 14 periods: (1), (13), (17), (20), (27), (30), (33), (41), (50), (53), (57), (60), (64), and (65). Earthquakes did not occur during 51 periods: (2) to (12), (14) to (16), (18), (19), (21) to (26), (28), (29), (31), (32), (34) to (40), (42) to (49), (51), (52), (54), (56), (58), (59), and (61) to (63). Therefore, the accuracy rate of the "occurrence" prediction was 21.5%.

[0136] (Future prediction) Using the earthquake occurrence range identified above, the future earthquake prediction period from February 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024, which falls within the range of occurrence of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6+, is: (66) the period from April 11, 2024 to April 26, 2024 (Japan), and (67) the period from October 12, 2024 to October 13, 2024 (Japan).

[0137] Furthermore, while the prediction research was underway on (57) February 13, 2021, (60) March 16, 2022, and as of 2023 when the application for this specification was being prepared, (64) the period from April 27, 2023 to July 1, 2023 (Japan) was in the future at the time, (57) off the coast of Fukushima, (60) off the coast of Fukushima, and (67) on May 5, 2023 in the Noto region of Ishikawa Prefecture, all occurred with a seismic intensity of 6+. This is one basis for assessing the reliability of the contents of this application.

[0138] (Prediction of earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater along the west coast of the United States) Astronomical information is acquired along the west coast of the United States from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2024, which is the data collection period (astronomical information acquisition step S1). Based on the collected astronomical information, calculations and the like are performed to acquire various parameters (parameter acquisition step S2). The ranges of each parameter during the period in which earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater occurred along the west coast of the United States are determined to be individual earthquake occurrence ranges. The range in which all parameters fall within the individual earthquake occurrence ranges is then determined to be the earthquake occurrence range (earthquake range identification step S3).

[0139] Regarding earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater along the west coast of the United States during the past data collection period, A: the number of times that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater occurred within the earthquake occurrence zone, B: the number of times that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater occurred outside the earthquake occurrence zone, C: the number of times that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater did not occur within the earthquake occurrence zone, D: the number of times that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater did not occur outside the earthquake occurrence zone, and N: the total predicted number A+B+C+D is as follows.

[0140] A: Number of times that earthquakes of M7 or above occurred within the earthquake occurrence zone: 7 times (considered as a period in which it is possible to predict that an earthquake will occur) B: Number of times that earthquakes of M7 or above occurred outside the earthquake occurrence zone: 0 times C: Number of times that earthquakes of M7 or above did not occur within the earthquake occurrence zone: 8 times D: Number of times that earthquakes of M7 or above did not occur outside the earthquake occurrence zone: 16 times (considered as a period in which it is possible to predict that an earthquake will not occur) N: Total number of predictions: A + B + C + D: 31 times

[0141] From the above, based on the past data collection period, the accuracy rates of earthquake predictions of magnitude 7 or greater along the west coast of the United States are as follows: Accuracy rate (A + D) / N x 100.....74.2% Accuracy rate for "occurrence" A / (A + C) x 100.....46.7% Accuracy rate for "no occurrence" D / (B + D) x 100.....100.0% Miss rate B / N x 100.....0% Miss rate C / N x 100.....25.8% Capture rate A / (A + B) x 100.....100.0% Match rate A / (A + C) x 100.....46.7%

[0142] (Verification results of the above accuracy rate) Using the earthquake occurrence area identified as above, the verification period from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2022, Japan time, is the period within the earthquake occurrence area, and the predicted earthquake occurrence period is as follows: (1) The period from June 22, 1995 to July 4, 1995 (2) October 10, 1995 (3) October 16, 1999 (4) The period from September 14, 2004 to October 1, 2004 (5) The period from June 11, 2005 to July 12, 2005 (6) The period from June 28, 2006 to July 2, 2006 (7) The period from June 19, 2007 to June 22, 2007 (8) April 5, 2010 (9) The period from April 11, 2012 to April 12, 2012; (10) The period from June 19, 2016 to July 10, 2016; (11) September 19, 2016; (12) The period from June 27, 2017 to July 1, 2017; (13) The period from September 16, 2017 to September 20, 2017; (14) July 15, 2018; and (15) The period from July 5, 2019 to July 7, 2019.

[0143] Of these, earthquakes actually occurred in periods (2), (3), (5), (8), (9), (13), and (15), but did not occur in periods (1), (4), (6), (7), (10), (12), and (14). Therefore, the accuracy rate of the prediction that an earthquake would occur was approximately 46.7%.

[0144] (Future prediction) Using the earthquake occurrence range calculated as above, there was no period within the earthquake occurrence range during the future earthquake prediction period from February 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024. (No earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater will occur.)

[0145] From the above results, it is believed that the present invention can provide an earthquake prediction method that can predict in advance the specific period during which an earthquake is likely to occur.

[0146] It is believed that the epicenter (occurrence area) can be identified based on the collected earthquake information. The scale and strength of the earthquake also depend on the collected earthquake information. Furthermore, according to the embodiment, since the occurrence of an earthquake is predicted based on astronomical information, it is possible to specifically predict the time of the earthquake occurrence.

[0147] This will allow time for preparations to be made for earthquake countermeasures, reducing casualties and physical and economic damage.

[0148] S1 Astronomical information collection step S2 Parameter acquisition step S3 Earthquake range identification step S4 Earthquake prediction step

Claims

1. An earthquake prediction method comprising: an astronomical information collection step of collecting astronomical information for a predetermined period in the past and a predetermined period in the future; a parameter acquisition step of acquiring parameters based on the collected astronomical information; an earthquake occurrence range identification step of identifying an earthquake occurrence range that is within the range of the parameters during an earthquake occurrence period during which an earthquake actually occurred during the predetermined period in the past; and an earthquake prediction step of extracting a period during the predetermined period in the future during which the parameters are within the earthquake occurrence range, and predicting that period as a period during which an earthquake may occur.

2. The earthquake prediction method of claim 1, wherein in the astronomical information collection step, astronomical information is collected for a specified period in the past and a specified period in the future in a specific earthquake prediction target area on Earth, and in the earthquake prediction step, an earthquake occurrence area is identified, predicting that this is a period in which an earthquake may occur in the earthquake prediction target area.

3. The earthquake prediction method described in claim 1, wherein in the earthquake occurrence range identification step, the period during which an earthquake of a specific seismic intensity or a specific magnitude or greater occurs is defined as the earthquake occurrence period, thereby making it possible to limit the seismic intensity or magnitude to be investigated.

4. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the parameters are values ​​calculated based on the gravitational force or tidal force exerted on the Earth by a celestial body other than the Earth, or the distance, angle, or mass of the other celestial body relative to the Earth.

5. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 4, wherein the other celestial body is the moon, the sun, or a planet in the solar system.

6. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the parameters are: xy coordinates, which are geocentric coordinates with the center of the Earth as the origin and the position of the sun relative to the Earth fixed at 90° and in the y+ direction; or values ​​on XY coordinates, which are heliocentric coordinates on a plane including the Earth's orbit, with the center of the Sun as the origin, the position of the Earth at aphelion at 0° relative to the origin, the position of the Earth at perihelion at 180°, the X axis being a line passing through the position of the Earth at aphelion, the origin, and the position of the Earth at perihelion, and the Y axis being a line passing through the origin and perpendicular to the X axis; or, when calculating tidal forces, values ​​on coordinates obtained by converting astronomical direction and altitude into mathematical coordinates in which the horizontal plane of the prediction area in a predetermined time unit is on the X axis, east is X+, west is X-, and altitude, which is a vertical plane, is on the Y axis.

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