The invention discloses a probabilistic grading fault scene generation method for an electrical
integrated energy system, and relates to the technical field of
integrated energy system optimization, and the method comprises the steps: firstly, considering the
earthquake intensity uncertainty, discretizing a target earthquake magnitude range into a plurality of
equidistant intervals, and calculating the occurrence probabilities of earthquakes of different earthquake magnitudes; secondly, modeling disaster-causing properties of earthquakes with different earthquake magnitudes by adopting a
vulnerability curve, and calculating expected values of damaged elements of a power
distribution system and a
natural gas system; then, randomly generating a fault scene under each classification magnitude by using a Monte Carlo method, carrying out analogue
simulation on the
cascade fault of the electrical
integrated energy system under the random fault scene, and recording the total loss load of the
system; and finally, calculating an average
load loss amount under each classification magnitude, and selecting a typical fault scene to form a classification fault scene set. According to the method, the
tail risk of the small-probability extreme event is quantified, and a scene basis is provided for formulating a
toughness improvement strategy of a comprehensive
energy system.